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22 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

The thing that makes me really believe that running back is NOT a smokescreen is that we made an actual play on JD McKissic. That can’t be faked. We literally offered him 4.5 million a year to be our pass catching specialist out of the backfield.

 

To those who are opposed to Hall in round 1 because he would take the ball out of Allen’s hands…really?  McKissic is a pass catching back that caught 100 balls in a season. Hall is a pass catching running back who also runs really well when needed. He’s also good in pass pro. To me, he’s exactly what the Bills have been looking for. 

$4.5M/year over two years in free agency is extremely different than weighing the opportunity cost in RD1 of drafting a RB vs. a cost controlled player at a premium position. 
 

McKissic himself was a UDFA. He’s a pass catching specialist, so there isn’t a worry about him taking the ball out of Josh’s hands, he’s an extension of Josh as he is a pass catcher. Hall may be a similar profile, but it doesn’t change the issue of the value lost by selecting a RB early. 

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27 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

The thing that makes me really believe that running back is NOT a smokescreen is that we made an actual play on JD McKissic. That can’t be faked. We literally offered him 4.5 million a year to be our pass catching specialist out of the backfield.

 

To those who are opposed to Hall in round 1 because he would take the ball out of Allen’s hands…really?  McKissic is a pass catching back that caught 100 balls in a season. Hall is a pass catching running back who also runs really well when needed. He’s also good in pass pro. To me, he’s exactly what the Bills have been looking for. 

You are literally exaggerating to make a point.  
 

We literally offered him 3.5M per year

28 minutes ago, davefan66 said:


I don’t see them going RB, it will be the best CB available.  Unless there is run on that position and there isn’t a 1st round graded CB left.

 

Yes, Tre injury plays into it.  As far as Wallace, I don’t think the Bills tried too hard to keep him.  His play in the playoffs was not good.  And let’s not forget about Taron Johnson.  Got a nice pay bump last year and is scheduled to make 4.5 million this season and Levi’s on the Steelers books for 2.5 million.  I feel if Beane wanted to keep Wallace, that move would have happened early last season.  Instead they paid Taron.

There’s a very good chance that there won’t be a first round talent on the board when we pick.  At any position.  Jmo

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1 hour ago, LEBills said:

Final day of rumors from Charlie Campbell includes some “second hand” info

 


https://walterfootball.com/nflhotpress/article/2022-NFL-Draft-Week-Rumors-Thursday

This didn't come from Tom Donahoe via Merrill Reese, did it?  Believing anything out of the Philly camp Ertz...

😁

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32 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Let's think about this as an example - did Rousseau help the team more than Etienne would have? My answer is a "yes". The run game may have been somewhat better but blocking would have restricted Etienne's effectiveness anyway. Hence, even if we had the choice, Rousseau would still have been the better choice. 

Fast forward to today - in the first round, a lockdown corner, fast/YAC WR or even a stud OT would help the team this year a whole lot more than a RB would. 

 

Not sure I have enough info as Etienne got hurt and Groot was rotational. 

 

That being said, I like Groot and am damn happy we took him. Word is Groot is already beefing up like an animal.

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26 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

The thing that makes me really believe that running back is NOT a smokescreen is that we made an actual play on JD McKissic. That can’t be faked. We literally offered him 4.5 million a year to be our pass catching specialist out of the backfield.

 

To those who are opposed to Hall in round 1 because he would take the ball out of Allen’s hands…really?  McKissic is a pass catching back that caught 100 balls in a season. Hall is a pass catching running back who also runs really well when needed. He’s also good in pass pro. To me, he’s exactly what the Bills have been looking for. 

 

McKissic was a college WR who didn't have the speed/explosion to play the position in the NFL..........so they converted him to RB.

 

Hall is a 700 carry RB who caught some passes in college.

 

Two totally different players.

 

James Cook is a low mileage RB who is much more in line with McKissic in terms of skillset.

 

But as I mentioned before...........the inefficiency in the draft market is an excess of WR's who don't have the combination of size or speed or deep ball skills to crack a WR corps in the NFL but could be converted into a pass catching RB like McKissic.

 

I was hoping to see them use McKenzie like that last year after he had to settle for a vet minimum deal...........but even though it would be good for his bank account to become a JD McKissic type I don't think he has the physicality to handle the RB touches.   

 

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7 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

Not sure I have enough info as Etienne got hurt and Groot was rotational. 

 

That being said, I like Groot and am damn happy we took him. Word is Groot is already beefing up like an animal.

 

Definitely way too early to evaluate. 

 

I do think Etienne has more value than "just" a RB.  Dude is a playmaker at RB and Slot.

 

Rousseau was going to take time as a raw DE, but he has a ton of potential and if he ever lives up to it for us - I don't care how good Etienne is - Rousseau is the better pick by miles. 

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12 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

$4.5M/year over two years in free agency is extremely different than weighing the opportunity cost in RD1 of drafting a RB vs. a cost controlled player at a premium position. 

 

 

You have to look at round 1 like spending $20M aav on a player in free agency, IMO.

 

It's one of your few chances to get a high ceiling premium position player outside of the rare incidence in free agency when they are available without a bunch of warts.

 

If you wouldn't view that player's ceiling as being worth that much money..........then pass.

 

If none of them are.........you trade out.

 

The Breece Hall rumors make no sense..........this is a guy at a low value position who could actually fall to round 3 even..........we've seen this with RB's over and over.

 

If the Bills are floating this out there......which we don't know........then maybe what they are really advertising is that they are WIDE OPEN for business on a trade back and might be willing to take less than board value to do it.     Because teams know a RB there is bad value and not a need.

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17 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You are literally exaggerating to make a point.  
 

We literally offered him 3.5M per year

There’s a very good chance that there won’t be a first round talent on the board when we pick.  At any position.  Jmo

I am “literally” picking up in the sarcasm. You don’t have to be like that. Make your point and move on…

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Fully expect the team to move up or out of the pick.  Corner two on this team has never been a position where they've thrown premium picks or big money at.  Dont expect them to change now.   This team does well because they dont pick for need.

 

If the pick is a runningback I assume they move back.   That said, I can for sure see them moving up a few picks for an elite playmaker.   Thats it thats the rumor.  

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1 hour ago, BillsSbSoon said:

About levi, thats fair but beane was clearly pissed talking about it during the mckissic deal. They wouldve kept him had that whole thing not happened the way it did. 


Maybe.  But he must have been at the bottom of the list to keep if a gadget RB is who kept them from resigning Wallace.

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1 hour ago, NewEra said:

You are literally exaggerating to make a point.  
 

We literally offered him 3.5M per year

There’s a very good chance that there won’t be a first round talent on the board when we pick.  At any position.  Jmo


Even though it’s supposed to be a deep draft this year, it’s pretty top heavy in the first round.  I agree Beane may drop back or out of the first round.  

 

Trading back gives them more picks = more players.  Not like it used to be we when we needed to load up on as many players as possible because our roster was so weak.  These guys will be backups and PS.  We did get raided for a few players on the PS last season.

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Just now, davefan66 said:


Even though it’s supposed to be a deep draft this year, it’s pretty top heavy in the first round.  I agree Beane may drop back or out of the first round.  

 

Trading back gives them more picks = more players.  Not like it used to be we when we needed to load up on as many players as possible because our roster was so weak.  These guys will be backups and PS.  We did get raided for a few players on the PS last season.

 

With the logic of trading back getting us more picks and players...why do that if we just lose those players like you say? I could see a trade back out of the first round and then package those picks to move back up and have 2/3 picks in the top 45/50. 

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3 minutes ago, davefan66 said:


Even though it’s supposed to be a deep draft this year, it’s pretty top heavy in the first round.  I agree Beane may drop back or out of the first round.  

 

Trading back gives them more picks = more players.  Not like it used to be we when we needed to load up on as many players as possible because our roster was so weak.  These guys will be backups and PS.  We did get raided for a few players on the PS last season.

I agree.  If Booth isn’t there, we should probably trade back if possible

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10 minutes ago, Shake_My_Head said:

IDK if they're related.   Wallace wasn't wearing red, white and blue underware when he decided to sign a contract.    


😂

 

I also think he knew there was going to be competition at CB and he wasn’t guaranteed a starting job by resigning.

 

Good dude, good player in the right position.  Just not full time starter.  He was not good in the playoffs.

 

9 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

With the logic of trading back getting us more picks and players...why do that if we just lose those players like you say? I could see a trade back out of the first round and then package those picks to move back up and have 2/3 picks in the top 45/50. 


Might be what they are looking at for sure.  Although, any way they can stock the team to get to 90 for camp, they will do.  And you never know if a 4th round guy excels.
 

No matter who’s on the PS, they are at risk to be plucked by another team.

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1 minute ago, davefan66 said:

I also think he knew there was going to be competition at CB and he wasn’t guaranteed a starting job by resigning.

Yep.  Levi most likely suspected they were going CB2 with either pick #25 or #57.    That's probably been well known inside the building for a while.

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1 hour ago, RichRiderBills said:

My own memory had plenty buzz about Groot to Buff in many mocks. Not sure much came from OBD.

 

Sure.  The mock drafts had us taking an Edge Rusher or Cornerback, since those were our biggest perceived needs.

None of it was based on any kind of inside information.

Nobody had a clue who the Bills were actually interested in, until suddenly a week or so before the draft.  Then all these rumors started about Travis Etienne, and people started running with it.

 

 

1 hour ago, RichRiderBills said:

I strongly doubt fake buzz came from OBD to get teams to reach or move up. That seems totally unsubstantiated.

 

There is no evidence the Bills were ever really interested in Etienne at #30.  There is also no evidence the rumors were fake.

It's all just fans trying to read the tea-leaves, after the fact.

 

We do know that teams purposely float false info into the media, hoping it can give them an advantage.  I don't see any reason why the Bills wouldn't do something like that too. 

  • By making teams think you are interested in a player (Etienne), it could prompt someone to trade-up to get them.  That pushes your true target (Rousseau) down a spot and gives you a better chance to getting them.
  • If teams know who you are targeting, they may be prompted to try and trade-ahead of you.  It's a great reason to hide your real intentions.

 

1 hour ago, RichRiderBills said:

But on that note, don't think we really had a ton of buzz on Etienne that he was a Bill for sure. Most of this came after or during the actual draft. 

 

The week of the draft, Etienne was the hottest name surrounding this team.

I think a lot of people on this board will remember that well.

 

1 hour ago, RichRiderBills said:

A solid amount of RBs have been taken in round 1 the past 10 years. Teams will pull the trigger. Honestly the bust rate of RBs in round 1 vs positions like WR is probably even less.

 

Nobody knows if Beane would be willing to draft a Running Back in Round 1... until he actually does it.

Don't forget he did come from an organization (Carolina) that drafted Christian McCaffrey, Johnathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in the 1st Round during his tenure with the team.  He wasn't the primary decision-maker, but it's definitely food for thought.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Shake_My_Head said:

Yep.  Levi most likely suspected they were going CB2 with either pick #25 or #57.    That's probably been well known inside the building for a while.

There's absolutely zero shot that their draft decisions are well known in the building - at least where every player is aware. Especially pending free agents months in advance of the draft.

 

I'm sorry, but it doesn't work this way. 

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25 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

One of these Corners should be there - booth, Gordon, Elam. All great fits.

I don’t like Elam.  Cj henderson mentored him.  Bad feeling about him.  Jmo.

 

I’ll be ok with Gordon….but I’d rather trade back

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Jets and Deebo trade is still possible.  Jets are apparently waiting to see who falls to them at 10 before making a decision. 

 

QB's being crap or not, having Tyreek and Deebo would be a lot to ask of Dane while Tre is out 

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54 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I don’t like Elam.  Cj henderson mentored him.  Bad feeling about him.  Jmo.

 

I’ll be ok with Gordon….but I’d rather trade back

 

Elam is off my board. Don't buy the hype. 

 

They ( one bills love)  were talking about Beane not loving SEC players....well FL players and that team was one of the most SEC of the SEC teams under Mullen..."me me" chippy after the play, thugs, coddled athletes ridden with endemic culture problems. I cannot stress enough that team was seriously problematic. 

 

Elam was not the worst offender, but I'd give anyone from that Mullen team a wide berth. Saying this is hard, as I am a Gator myself.

 

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2 hours ago, whorlnut said:

 Corner 2 can also be found later. 

I hear what you're saying, but the NFL is littered with probowl RBs who were drafted after round 1. CBs? Not really. If you want a probowl caliber CB, they come primarily in round 1. Of course, there are exceptions to every rule, but the chances of a really good CB after round 1 go way down. That's not the case with RB.

 

It would be awesome to have a dynamic RB on this team. I just don't want, or think we have, to spend a round 1 pick to get one.

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1 hour ago, PaattMaann said:

 

With the logic of trading back getting us more picks and players...why do that if we just lose those players like you say? I could see a trade back out of the first round and then package those picks to move back up and have 2/3 picks in the top 45/50. 

 

There could be a couple of different reasons. One you already mentioned is maybe they want multiple picks in a certain area of the draft because they feel thats the strength. Manipulating grabbing extra picks at the top obviously means you have more flexibility to trade up later in the draft if you really like a guy. Another thought, and I think Beane said this once, but maybe it was another GM. If the Bills add 6th and 7th rounders it might be because they want guys to fill out their 90 man roster. The Bills are loaded, its not exactly a destination for a UDFA to find a job. So by adding late round picks, they can get the guys they really want, don't have to negotiate with other teams with weaker rosters, and if they cut them later its not a big deal because they weren't good enough. 

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9 minutes ago, somnus00 said:

I hear what you're saying, but the NFL is littered with probowl RBs who were drafted after round 1. CBs? Not really. If you want a probowl caliber CB, they come primarily in round 1. Of course, there are exceptions to every rule, but the chances of a really good CB after round 1 go way down. That's not the case with RB.

 

It would be awesome to have a dynamic RB on this team. I just don't want, or think we have, to spend a round 1 pick to get one.

So by drafting a corner in round one, that means he will be a pro bowler?  That logic isn’t sound. Once the top dogs are gone, the rest have flaws. Don’t force the pick just cause you “need” one. That’s how you end up making a bad pick. 

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4 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

You may be correct.

But in 4-5 years of following this regime, I can't think of ANY verifiable draft information that has slipped from One Bills Drive.  Same thing with our targets in free agency.  History shows that rumors surrounding this team never come true.  Which makes you wonder if "leaks" are done on purpose, to create a smokescreen for our true intentions.

 

Last year, all the pre-draft rumors were about Travis Etienne.  He was obviously taken before our pick, so we will never know for sure.  But I don't recall a single article or tweet before the draft suggesting we had heavy interest in Greg Rousseau.  But obviously we did.

 

Two years ago, Defensive Tackle was the most obvious need on the team.  Based on draft position and value, Ed Oliver should have been given to us in 99% of mocks.  But the week of the draft, we kept getting rumblings about the Bills wanting Quinnen Williams and trying to trade-up for him.  Nothing about Oliver.

 

Even in 2018... when EVERYBODY knew we were trading up for a Quarterback... nobody could put their finger on which one we wanted.  To this day, people speculate if Josh Allen was the #1 quarterback on our board.  The trade-up for Tremaine Edmunds came totally out of nowhere just a few picks later.

 

 

What I would say is:

 

1. While you are right that not a lot has leaked out of One Bills Drive under this regime in terms of *pre-draft* there has been information that has got out *post-draft* - whether that be in 2018 that Rosen and Mayfield were off their board, whether it is in 2020 that Kyle Dugger was their guy if he made it to their pick or whether it was last year when their own insider Chris Brown let slip that that they were, indeed, high on Travis Etienne. And that isn't unusual, it's pretty common around the league, people talk to people. 

 

2. While there might not have been loads of mocking and lots of noise about Rousseau last year, I don't think it was hard to work out. Brandon Beane isn't very good at speaking without saying anything. Sean McDermott is a master of the art but Brandon is pretty straight up and without meaning to he tells you things if you are just willing to read between the lines a bit. I got it down to Rousseau or Etienne last year simply by reading into what Brandon told us he was going to do. I have a screenshot from a discord chat with a Chiefs fan that day where I said our pick would be one of those two guys. In 2019 I said all the way through draft season if Ed Oliver got to #9 the Bills were picking him (I didn't expect him to fall to them). I wasn't the least bit surprised when he was the pick. 

 

I repeat that I am not saying Etienne was above Rousseau on their board, but had Rousseau been gone and Etienne been there I think he'd have been the pick. Smokescreens pre-draft are one thing but the information that came out post draft is another. Nor do I believe that because the Bills liked Etienne they must like Breece Hall. That is a logical fallacy to me. Etienne had a very specific skillset of being a home run hitter from anywhere on the field and that was something Beane talked about relentlessly last offseason. Hall is a different type of prospect and indeed the Bills haven't quite focussed on that "home run hitter" stuff so much this offseason. 

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10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

What I would say is:

 

1. While you are right that not a lot has leaked out of One Bills Drive under this regime in terms of *pre-draft* there has been information that has got out *post-draft* - whether that be in 2018 that Rosen and Mayfield were off their board, whether it is in 2020 that Kyle Dugger was their guy if he made it to their pick or whether it was last year when their own insider Chris Brown let slip that that they were, indeed, high on Travis Etienne. And that isn't unusual, it's pretty common around the league, people talk to people. 

 

2. While there might not have been loads of mocking and lots of noise about Rousseau last year, I don't think it was hard to work out. Brandon Beane isn't very good at speaking without saying anything. Sean McDermott is a master of the art but Brandon is pretty straight up and without meaning to he tells you things if you are just willing to read between the lines a bit. I got it down to Rousseau or Etienne last year simply by reading into what Brandon told us he was going to do. I have a screenshot from a discord chat with a Chiefs fan that day where I said our pick would be one of those two guys. In 2019 I said all the way through draft season if Ed Oliver got to #9 the Bills were picking him (I didn't expect him to fall to them). I wasn't the least bit surprised when he was the pick. 

 

I repeat that I am not saying Etienne was above Rousseau on their board, but had Rousseau been gone and Etienne been there I think he'd have been the pick. Smokescreens pre-draft are one thing but the information that came out post draft is another. Nor do I believe that because the Bills liked Etienne they must like Breece Hall. That is a logical fallacy to me. Etienne had a very specific skillset of being a home run hitter from anywhere on the field and that was something Beane talked about relentlessly last offseason. Hall is a different type of prospect and indeed the Bills haven't quite focussed on that "home run hitter" stuff so much this offseason. 

Given you are 6 hours ahead of us can you just go ahead and tell this board what happens?  We won’t say anything we swear.

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47 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Jets and Deebo trade is still possible.  Jets are apparently waiting to see who falls to them at 10 before making a decision. 

 

QB's being crap or not, having Tyreek and Deebo would be a lot to ask of Dane while Tre is out 

The investment in Von Miller should help Dane’s cause

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8 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Although I agree in general and prefer other players to Hall, your argument is something that can be twisted in any direction.  In 2016 the Bills waited until later to  pick RB Jonathan Williams because they “needed” DE and took Shaq Lawson.  Had they prioritized RB they could have taken Derrick Henry and “settled” for Yannick Ngakoue.  We wouldn’t even have had to pass over the great Reggie Ragland.

 

The point is you can do this comparison for any two positions in either direction all day long.  Five years from now fans of 31 teams will be complaining they passed 4 times on some guy drafted this Saturday in round 5.  That guy might be a QB, RB, DE or maybe even one of each.  It’s Beane’s job to discern which PLAYERS are more likely to help the Bills short and long term.  Shirley this takes into account what position they play but cannot be reliant on only that. 
 

With all that said I am also guilty of positional bias as I want the Bills to draft corner at all costs tonight, possibly even trading up.  I make no claims about how the pick will work out beyond its impact on @Bill from NYC That alone makes it a steal.

Thanks for the mention. How kind of you to mention me in such a flattering way. You sure do seem to know tons about football. In that sense, I will miss your kind comments and great insights after I block you.  

I do hope that you become a happier person.

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1 hour ago, whorlnut said:

So by drafting a corner in round one, that means he will be a pro bowler?  That logic isn’t sound. Once the top dogs are gone, the rest have flaws. Don’t force the pick just cause you “need” one. That’s how you end up making a bad pick. 

That is a completely dishonest interpretation of what I wrote. I was trying to be civil in this discussion with you. I didn't say that at all if you read my statement.

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28 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Thanks for the mention. How kind of you to mention me in such a flattering way. You sure do seem to know tons about football. In that sense, I will miss your kind comments and great insights after I block you.  

I do hope that you become a happier person.

Geez dude it was just for fun.

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4 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

There's absolutely zero shot that their draft decisions are well known in the building - at least where every player is aware. Especially pending free agents months in advance of the draft.

 

I'm sorry, but it doesn't work this way. 

Wallace has been living on borrowed time for a while (i.e., the tallest midget in the circus).   I suspect it's highly likely the position groups pick up vibes and gosip inside the building more than we outsiders can know.     And has a feel for when the coaching staff would like better players at certain positions.  

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5 minutes ago, Shake_My_Head said:

Wallace has been living on borrowed time for a while (i.e., the tallest midget in the circus).   I suspect it's highly likely the position groups pick up vibes and gosip inside the building more than we outsiders can know.     And has a feel for when the coaching staff would like better players at certain positions.  

What about Beane and McDermott being here for 5 years with next to zero leaked information gives you an idea that vibes and gossips goes around in the building? 
 

Being an insider, in a different organization, I can promise you that what you’re describing doesn’t happen like you’re describing it. 

Edited by JGMcD2
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Just now, JGMcD2 said:

What about Beane and McDermott being here for 5 years with next to zero leaked information gives you an idea that vibes and gossips goes around in the building? 
 

Being an insider, in a different organization, I can promise you that what you’re describing doesn’t happen like you’re describing it. 

 

I'm not talking about leaks. 

 

I'm talking about workplace dynamics, player observations, coaching staff remarks, criticism, praise, etc.   That gets picked up in any work environment, including locker rooms.   

 

Employees know when management favors/trusts certain individuals, when they don't have much confidence in someone, when the time to start working on their resume is near.   Wallace probably knows McD wants an upgrade at his position--and this draft was probably going to bring in his replacement.   

 

Better to go somewhere else where the new team dosn't (yet) see all the warts and birthmarks, rather than sticking around and having a high probability of getting benched or cut.

 

 

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