Mel Kiper mock- Michigan DB Daxton Hill

[Vickveto]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Is Gabe Davis never going to get a chance?

This is professional sports you have to earn your chance and Davis could not beat out a receiver who retired at the end of the season. That major game which was great the other team double diggs every single play and they already had bad corners. Yes people are going to be skeptical, and he will have to compete on the outside with somebody besides Kumerow to earn it.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

This is professional sports you have to earn your chance and Davis could not beat out a receiver who retired at the end of the season. That major game which was great the other team double diggs every single play and they already had bad corners. Yes people are going to be skeptical, and he will have to compete on the outside with somebody besides Kumerow to earn it.

I think this take is pretty bad but that’s the only way I’ll justify someone saying Allen has no weapons. If you think Gabe Davis isn’t a WR2 then yes we “need” a WR. I disagree. I think Davis is a WR2.

 

I also think Knox has top 5 TE ability. I’ve been a huge believer in Knox since before his breakout last year. Knox could easily be a “WR2” IMO. Get 100+ targets.

 

we definitely need WR depth. I would draft Jameson Williams if he fell to 25. There are some good WR’s to be had 3-4 that will add to the WR room.

8 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I'm not discounting Davis. We still need to add to the WR room, imo.

I was on the WR at 25 bandwagon until Diggs signed. We shouldn’t have to worry about our top 2 WR’s for 2 years. I think next year WR becomes more of a topic based on Davis. I wouldn’t pass on Jameson Williams because he’s a top 10 talent. But WR depth can be filled later in the draft.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Mark Vader]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

Kenneth Walker. He went Pure Michigan (state of)

Interesting, especially since Beane doesn't usually draft players from those schools, or the Big 10 for that matter.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Mark Vader

[Dr. Who]

Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I think this take is pretty bad but that’s the only way I’ll justify someone saying Allen has no weapons. If you think Gabe Davis isn’t a WR2 then yes we “need” a WR. I disagree. I think Davis is a WR2.

 

I also think Knox has top 5 TE ability. I’ve been a huge believer in Knox since before his breakout last year. Knox could easily be a “WR2” IMO. Get 100+ targets.

 

we definitely need WR depth. I would draft Jameson Williams if he fell to 25. There are some good WR’s to be had 3-4 that will add to the WR room.

I was on the WR at 25 bandwagon until Diggs signed. We shouldn’t have to worry about our top 2 WR’s for 2 years. I think next year WR becomes more of a topic based on Davis. I wouldn’t pass on Jameson Williams because he’s a top 10 talent. But WR depth can be filled later in the draft.

There are four wr and Green at g that I like in the first. Booth is a pick I can't argue with, but I would not pass on Jameson WIlliams to take him personally. I indicated upthread some second round receiving choices. Skyy Moore could be added, though I'd like a bigger receiving threat with speed. That is something Davis doesn't offer, though I think he is probably ready to step up to No. 2. (Obviously, the KC playoff game was exceptional, but he didn't see the field, disappeared for games earlier in the season. Could be coaching staff issue, I don't know.)

[Vickveto]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

If you think Gabe Davis isn’t a WR2 then yes we “need” a WR. I disagree. I think Davis is a WR2.

I said people have a reason to be skeptical if you’re looking from a non-bias lens. Devante parker Elijah Moore and Jaylen Waddle are considered better wide receivers by most NFL people those are the number twos in our own division.

 

9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I would draft Jameson Williams if he fell to 25.

Without the injury he is the number one receiver on my board but I think it’s too risky we don’t know how his body will respond after this surgery or if he will ever even be the same again. Some guys just are not the same after a ACL even in the modern era.

[msw2112]

Dax Hill would be a great acquisition at the Bills current draft slot.  He's a great athlete that can play all over the field.  With our needs at DB (Poyer aging and a potentail contract situation, Tre injured, Levi going to Pittsburgh, etc.), Hill could step in and help in a number of roles.  He could start as an outside CB this year, filling that need, and move to safety in the future if Poyer leaves.  Or he could settle in and stay at outside CB.  He could also play nickel, but Taron has that covered.  Hill would simply offer the Bills all kids of flexibilty in the defensive backfield.

 

Hill was a 5-star coming out of high school and went through a back-and-forth recruting battle between Michigan and Alabama, eventually landing with the Wolverines.

[Shake_My_Head]

Up to now, I hadn't spent much time thinking about Hill.   But after digging into it a bit, he seems like a very interesting candidate at #25.     

 

Positional flexibility is a hugh thing with the Bills and he'd check that box.  Others are football IQ and durability--he didn’t miss a game in college.     It'll come down to value at the pick, but I'd be happy if it shook out that way.

 

-----

Edit:   thinking about the odds of Hill at #25, I'm inclined to say they're now next to none--I can't ever recall Kiper correctly mocking the Bills pick when they've drafted so low.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Shake_My_Head

[Vickveto]

Hills ability to play corner whether inside or out only counts if he can do it at an above average level while still playing safety at an above average level if he can do that I love the pick. He is definitely a first round athlete.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

If someone like Booth is the pick in the first, George Pickens or Trey McBride ought to be second round targets you trade up to secure.

 

This is my prediction for what will happen. I think the 1st round pick will be defense. I would bet on Booth or Hill being the pick, but another edge rusher like Karlaftis or Mafe wouldn't surprise me at all. In the 2nd round I think we will trade up to secure a WR before the 2nd round talents are gone. I hope everyone doesn't freak out if we once again draft defense in the 1st round. There will be plenty of opportunities later in the draft to add to the offense.

[Shake_My_Head]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I hope everyone doesn't freak out if we once again draft defense in the 1st round.

 

Well, I for one will be "dancing and a wigglin" like John Butler if they go defense in Round 1.     I just don't see enough value in the offens(ive) prospects around that #25 slot.

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, Mark Vader said:

Interesting, especially since Beane doesn't usually draft players from those schools, or the Big 10 for that matter.

Have to think kiper didn’t do a deep dive on team drafting tendencies when doing this. I still think they will go with guys like booth from Clemson, Cine from UGA, Stingley from LSU, etc. and a RB in the 3rd or later vs this prediction 

[Logic]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

Is Gabe Davis never going to get a chance?

 

How is the “if you want to add a premium WR, it means you don’t believe in Gabe Davis” take still a thing?

 

Between Beasley and Sanders, the Bills lost 182 targets from last season, and have only added a cheap, one year, slot only WR to the roster.

 

They’re also in 3 or 4 WR sets over 80% of the time.

 

If Davis or Diggs were to miss time with injury, it would get ugly at outside WR.

 

Lastly, with the exploding contracts of WRs, adding a talented, cost controlled option at the position for four or five years makes a ton of sense, especially after paying Diggs.

 

So yes, I believe in Davis. I bet he’ll be an outstanding WR2. Push him to the moon!

 

But for all the reasons I just listed, the Bills still need to add a WR within the first few rounds.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Logic

[damj]

5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I love this player. Kiper forgets we have Taron Johnson in the slot. I would love to see how McDermott uses Hill’s versatility. He can play anywhere in the secondary I believe on day 1.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2022/insider/story/_/id/33721368/nfl-mock-draft-2022-mel-kiper-new-predictions-top-64-picks-rounds-1-2-including-first-round-trade?platform=amp

Kiper is an idiot

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

How is the “if you want to add a premium WR, it means you don’t believe in Gabe Davis” take still a thing?

 

Between Beasley and Sanders, the Bills lost 182 targets from last season, and have only added a cheap, one year, slot only WR to the roster.

 

They’re also in 3 or 4 WR sets over 80% of the time.

 

If Davis or Diggs were to miss time with injury, it would get ugly at outside WR.

 

Lastly, with the exploding contracts of WRs, adding a talented, cost controlled option at the position for four or five years makes a ton of sense, especially after paying Diggs.

 

So yes, I believe in Davis. I bet he’ll be an outstanding WR2. Push him to the moon!

 

But for all the reasons I just listed, the Bills still need to add a WR within the first few rounds.

They didn’t add a WR in the 1st few rounds when they had Diggs and Beasley. They added Davis and developed him. That’s exactly what their plan at WR should be this year. Round 3-4 WR and develop. Probably another one in the 6-7 rounds. We need depth.
 

Crowder should get around 70 targets. Davis an extra 40 targets. Knox an extra 10 targets. McKenzie probably gets more targets, let’s give him 10 more. I’m being conservative here with target projections. 
 

So we’re looking at a projection of 50 targets or so for the rookie WR. A season likely of 35 catches, 500 yards, 5 TDs.

 

 I think we can get a WR in the 3-4 round that gives us similar numbers but might need more time to develop. A Josh Palmer like WR from last year. 

[DCofNC]

6 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

One doesn't draft a slot corner in the 1st....or does one?

I think you could justify it considering the guys that play out of the slot a lot these days.   You are going to see Hill twice a year running from there and all over, it’s a good position to be set at.

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Would be nice if they’d reverse that thought process for the defense… just for one year… 

 

The problem is the defensive talent thins out pretty quickly, whereas there will likely be very good WR talents still available in the mid-2nd round. Taking a defensive player in the 1st round does not mean we punted on improving the offense. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I think a dynamic WR with terrific YAC ability moves the needle for this team more than another defensive piece… don’t even think it’s a debate… just gotta see how the board falls but if there’s a WR there with that dynamic YAC ability vs a slot corner…. How do you justify the slot corner pick?

The Bills won’t draft a slot CB in the 1st round. I don’t believe Hill will be that anyways.

 

As for a YAC WR, yeah. But I want open WRs 1st. It seems like all the dynamic WRs in this draft will go top 20. 

[OldTimer1960]

9 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’m going to listen. I watched like an hour of Hill straight after I saw the mock. He looks like a perfect fit for our defense. 

Can he play outside corner or just slot?  
 

He could be a dark horse, but I don’t know what he would do year 1.  Won’t beat out Poyer or Hyde at S.  Taron Johnson is excellent at slot corner.  So, if they take Hill, they must believe he can move in at outside corner.  I’m not sure what to think of Hill.  Is he a safety who played slot and is being projected to outside corner?  He is certainly an athlete.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Can he play outside corner or just slot?  
 

He could be a dark horse, but I don’t know what he would do year 1.  Won’t beat out Poyer or Hyde at S.  Taron Johnson is excellent at slot corner.  So, if they take Hill, they must believe he can move in at outside corner.  I’m not sure what to think of Hill.  Is he a safety who played slot and is being projected to outside corner?  He is certainly an athlete.

I see him as an off the ball outside CB in our scheme. I can also see him, Johnson, Poyer, and Hyde moving around in the slot at times and coming on the blitz. It’ll be nice to have those interchangeable parts. Offense won’t know what they’re seeing.

[gonzo1105]

I don’t believe the top WRs will be there. I also think it’s very possible the top CBS are gone too. OL/SAF/LB/RB is a possibility. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

He’s a slot corner/safety in this league… it’s no contest for me IF a dynamic WR is there at 25… the future benefit also isn’t even close between the two positions.

I see lot of those scouting reports. It’s funny because slot CBs are typically great in man against smaller quicker WRs and safeties aren’t. It’s such a weird projection for Hill. Probably because he played a lot in the slot and at safety. I liked his instincts in off coverage. He’s 6’ and runs 4.3. I think he’ll make an excellent outside in our scheme. 
 

If he fails there he moves to safety. 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Buffalo_Stampede

[John from Riverside]

37 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I think a dynamic WR with terrific YAC ability moves the needle for this team more than another defensive piece… don’t even think it’s a debate… just gotta see how the board falls but if there’s a WR there with that dynamic YAC ability vs a slot corner…. How do you justify the slot corner pick?

Yeah slot corner doesnt excite me we already have Taron Johnson....if the guy can play the boundry I am more interested

[purple haze]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They didn’t add a WR in the 1st few rounds when they had Diggs and Beasley. They added Davis and developed him. That’s exactly what their plan at WR should be this year. Round 3-4 WR and develop. Probably another one in the 6-7 rounds. We need depth.
 

Crowder should get around 70 targets. Davis an extra 40 targets. Knox an extra 10 targets. McKenzie probably gets more targets, let’s give him 10 more. I’m being conservative here with target projections. 
 

So we’re looking at a projection of 50 targets or so for the rookie WR. A season likely of 35 catches, 500 yards, 5 TDs.

 

 I think we can get a WR in the 3-4 round that gives us similar numbers but might need more time to develop. A Josh Palmer like WR from last year. 

They already have Marquez Stevenson for development.  They could use  a guy who can play now, pedigree-wise.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Your missing my point… a projected slot/safety or borderline outside CB isn’t as valuable as a potential dynamic WR with YAC ability to this team with Josh Allen… it doesn’t move the needle nearly as much as the WR does.

My point is there will be zero dynamic WRs available at 25.

 

I do love Pickens but at 25 that would be considered a reach. I also like Dotson.

1 minute ago, purple haze said:

They already have Marquez Stevenson for development.  They could use  a guy who can play now, pedigree-wise.  

Play as in start or play if needed? 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Bill from NYC]

33 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

He’s a slot corner/safety in this league… it’s no contest for me IF a dynamic WR is there at 25… the future benefit also isn’t even close between the two positions.

Let alone a high quality blocker.

[intimidatortj]

10 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

One doesn't draft a slot corner in the 1st....or does one?

I love Dax Hill's ability to play all over the secondary.

 

Plus he could be one of your starting safeties in a year, or, two.   

[Vickveto]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

My point is there will be zero dynamic WRs available at 25.

It saddens me but it does seem it’s heading in that direction.

 

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Williams may still be available with the pick. 

Williams is just turning into a no for me. What does that say about how teams feel his recovery is going if he makes it till 25? Pre-acl Williams would be a top-five pick. We just don’t know if he will be the same after surgery huge boom or bust risk. I don’t think he makes it anyway.

[papazoid]

at least half of these guys will be on the board at #25.....bills are in a great spot

 

Tyler Linderbaum  C

Jameson Williams  WR

Devonte Wyatt DT

Daxton Hill  DB

Trevor Penning OT

Treylon Burks  WR

Kenyon Green  OG

Jahan Dotson WR

Andrew Booth CB

Zion Johnson OG

[78thealltimegreat]

10 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I love this player. Kiper forgets we have Taron Johnson in the slot. I would love to see how McDermott uses Hill’s versatility. He can play anywhere in the secondary I believe on day 1.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2022/insider/story/_/id/33721368/nfl-mock-draft-2022-mel-kiper-new-predictions-top-64-picks-rounds-1-2-including-first-round-trade?platform=amp

Watched him alot at Michigan he’s really a Swiss Army knife at DB you can play him everywhere as he’s a crazy athlete…not a shutdown corner but is definitely not bad and he would be a dynamic safety in this system. 

[CEN-CAL17]

10 hours ago, H2o said:

 

 

Daxton Hill came in at 6', 192lbs, ran a 4.38 40, had a 6.56 3-Cone drill (insane), and a 4.06 20yd shuttle. If they took Hill in the 1st I would have absolutely no problem with that. The guy really could play anywhere in the Secondary. 

After seeing his 3-Cone weeks ago along with his 40 time…. I question, why can’t he play CB outside?

Edited April 13, 2022 by CEN-CAL17

[mannc]

59 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

My point is there will be zero dynamic WRs available at 25.

 

 

You can’t possibly know that…there is every chance that guys like Watson, Dotson and/or Burks, not to mention Alec Pierce, will be available at 25.

[JaCrispy]

9 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I'm not discounting Davis. We still need to add to the WR room, imo. If someone like Booth is the pick in the first, George Pickens or Trey McBride ought to be second round targets you trade up to secure.

No need to trade up for those guys in the 2nd imo...plenty of offensive weapons will be available at 58....👍

[purple haze]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

My point is there will be zero dynamic WRs available at 25.

 

I do love Pickens but at 25 that would be considered a reach. I also like Dotson.

Play as in start or play if needed? 

Play as needed until they earn more time.  Crowder only got a 1 year deal.  McKenzie is basically on a 1 year deal too.  Davis will be up for an extension or hit Free Agency After 2023.  Need young, cheap talent at the position that can be impactful.

[Motor26]

Dax Hill would be a great pick. Could start at outside corner and move around the defense as players age out of the team, or just be a stud outside corner. 

[BigAl2526]

Hill is certainly big enough, and athletic enough to play corner on the outside.  I wonder why he didn't at Michigan.   In any case, I don't think there is any chance Buffalo drafts him unless they can be convinced he'll be a solid outside cornerback.

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

No need to trade up for those guys in the 2nd imo...plenty of offensive weapons will be available at 58....👍

Which offensive weapons do you think will be there @ 58?  Sure, there are a bunch of guys but I don’t see a bunch of guys worthy of 58.  I think Pickens, Watson, Moore, Pierce, Robinson, McBride, Hall and Walker are all off the board.  Maybe Robinson is there?  but another slot?  Meh.   I’d be ok with pierce but I think he’s going higher than 58.  
 

I know you’re probably happy with the 160 lb Austin at that spot due to his speed, but good 160 lb WRs don’t exist in the nfl.  Trindon Holiday was 165 LBs.  He may be slot only due to his inability to get off press.   

Metchie, Shakir, Tolbert, Bell not worth 58.  Of those guys I think I’d take Tolbert…. But he might even be gone by 58.  
 

[OldTimer1960]

11 hours ago, mannc said:

You can’t possibly know that…there is every chance that guys like Watson, Dotson and/or Burks, not to mention Alec Pierce, will be available at 25.

Pierce doesn’t belong in the conversation at 25, maybe at 57.

[DrDawkinstein]

I like Hill over McDuffie even. Start him outside this year and look to move him to Safety as those guys age out. Or let McD come up with new ways to use this dynamic player.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, NewEra said:

Which offensive weapons do you think will be there @ 58?  Sure, there are a bunch of guys but I don’t see a bunch of guys worthy of 58.  I think Pickens, Watson, Moore, Pierce, Robinson, McBride, Hall and Walker are all off the board.  Maybe Robinson is there?  but another slot?  Meh.   I’d be ok with pierce but I think he’s going higher than 58.  
 

I know you’re probably happy with the 160 lb Austin at that spot due to his speed, but good 160 lb WRs don’t exist in the nfl.  Trindon Holiday was 165 LBs.  He may be slot only due to his inability to get off press.   

Metchie, Shakir, Tolbert, Bell not worth 58.  Of those guys I think I’d take Tolbert…. But he might even be gone by 58.  
 

 

I have Tolbert worth #57 (it's 57 not 58). But agree it would be a small reach for Bell and a big reach for Metchie, Shakir, Austin.... I even personally think it is a small reach for Wan'dale. 

 

I think the Bills need an outside guy who can be explosive. If I had taken a corner at #25 and I got to #49 ahead of the Chiefs at #50 and Tolbert was still out there I'd even be willing to go up a few spots to secure him. 

[Dr. Who]

If Bills go D @25 and then play let the draft come to them in the 2nd round, that is not a good sign, imo. They need to aggressively upgrade the offense, not to fill holes, which seems to be the default setting for a lot of folks, but to increase the skill set and versatility of the offense so that it becomes more potent and dangerous and less reliant on Josh Allen making extraordinary plays. In addition, we actually need depth at WR and IOL. I think you may still get an impact WR or a TE like McBride at the top of the second round . . . we should make sure we get one.