Matt Araiza and the Draft

[unbillievable]

Imagine having someone on the roster who has a shot at making a 75 yard field goal.

 

Instead of kneeling down at the half, attempt a FG at your own 40.

 

 

 

 

[freddyjj]

On 3/2/2022 at 7:28 PM, Turbo44 said:

Can he hold for FGs though? Not joking as he was also a PK so has no experience holding 

 

i wouldn’t be opposed to spending our late 5th on him but nothing earlier. I can’t remember his name but there’s a 2nd elite punter in this years draft class, some rankings have him higher 

No as he is a place kicker too. And a poor one at that - 64 ℅ FG kicker last year.  What is it the late 1960s or early 1970s?

 

And he has only punted for one year as starter.  Maybe Beane should sign the guy who beat him out the two years prior to be our punter?

 

 

1 hour ago, DJB said:

 

Is this 100% true?

 

If so that probably at least makes him a better holder than Bojo. 

 

But seriously he doesn't hold? 

No as was their FG kicker.  Punted for one year only

Edited March 27, 2022 by freddyjj

[Turbo44]

Instead of having to take him in the 3rd or 4th, I’d rather wait and take the Penn St or GA punter with one of sixths. Both of these guys are really good and we don’t punt all that much anyway 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

58 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

Its not just the Bills who struggle rounds 3 - 7 all teams do. Statistically speaking players drafted in those rounds have a very low chance of being a successful player in the NFL. So why not draft a guy in those rounds who will be starter? 

 

 

 

42 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

People love to boast about some back up linebacker or Safety who becomes a punt team gunner stalwart for years … and they’re normally drafted in or around the 5th Round. Why is it so odd to imagine taking the guy who actually punts the ball? I know absolutely nothing about this kid, but if he’s a sure thing, you draft him…period! And if he can’t hold, you either train him, or have your backup QB do it…since Keenum is just sitting there all game/season long. 

 

If he had also held for kicks all his career I'd be much more in favor of drafting him higher.  Regardless of where he's picked likely his lack of holding will cause him to drop some, if he held he would have been selected higher.  I'm also sure that ever since his season has ended, he's been practicing holding, but that doesn't make up for years of experience at it.  Have to wonder to, yes he'll learn to hold, but not something he enjoys or cares about as much as punting and doesn't put the same effort into it long term, just figuring his money is being made on kicking.  I believe the biggest reason the Bills moved on from Bojo was his issues with holding.  How'd that work out this year in Green Bay?

 

Sure they can work with him, but that takes time, what if in a playoff game a crucial kick is missed due to holding issues.  Personally I think as strong as the Bills offense is holding is more important than punting.

 

30 years ago backup QB's held all the time.  But that was when there weren't all the rules and restrictions on practice time.  Was easy at the end of practice for Reich to go over and practice kicking.  Now that's not allowed.  So for Keenum to be the holder, you're taking time away from his already limited time he has a backup QB.  It's fine as long as he's never needed in a game, but if Allen were to get hurt some week, then he may not be as prepared as he should be and you also don't want your now starting QB holding. Plus does Keenum even have any experience at it?

 

Would I pick him, yes, but not not before the 4th, and better have a solution for the holding part.  Maybe someone else on the roster has alot of holding experience . Though to be honest I'd question if almost any rookie punter has put much effort into improving holding?

[Motor26]

No experience holding, also why draft a punter in round 4, when you can get a good one in round 6 or 7? Penn State or Georgia punters are good too. 

[MrEpsYtown]

Little tidbit on Ariaza on holding.
 

One of the things that makes Matt Haack so good as a holder is that he isn’t your typical soccer kid turned kicker. He was a really good wide receiver in high school who just happened to be good at punting. So he was working on ball skills in practice. 
 

Ariaza was a defensive back, playing a bunch of corner and safety in high school. So you have to assume he has some ball skills as it would have been a part of practice. He also kicked and punted, but because he was also a full time position player, he must have some ball skills. He was also a soccer and track star. Elite athlete, hurdler on the track team, sounds like left footed Moorman to me. 
 

Bojo is a soccer kid who played football. So never really had to hold or catch a football, or really use his hands at all, and to me, that’s why he is terrible at it. 

Edited March 27, 2022 by MrEpsYtown

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, Turbo44 said:

Instead of having to take him in the 3rd or 4th, I’d rather wait and take the Penn St or GA punter with one of sixths. Both of these guys are really good and we don’t punt all that much anyway 

The PSU punter, Stout, has much better stats involving fair catches, punts inside the 20 and touchbacks.  So, it appears he has more control of his kicks which is a big deal.

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

The PSU punter, Stout, has much better stats involving fair catches, punts inside the 20 and touchbacks.  So, it appears he has more control of his kicks which is a big deal.

 

Stout is who I think they draft with a 6th.

[FLFan]

On 3/2/2022 at 8:28 PM, RyanC883 said:

 

this would benefit the D, which to be honest obtained its rankings against a crop of average QBs. 

The fact that you repeat this thought in thread after thread does not make it any more of a valid point. The Bill”s were one of the top defenses in the league, by any measure, despite your nitpicking.  The point being made by the post you responded to is that as few times as the Bills actually punt, any incremental improvement in punting is immaterial to actual results and not worth a serious expenditure of assets.  This is objectively true.  

Edited March 27, 2022 by FLFan

[BearNorth]

Looking at the 2022 First Team All Pro Special Teamers, Tucker - K, Cole - P, Gray - Gunner, Rhodes - LS are all UDFA.  KR is Berrios 6th round #210, and PR is Duvernay 3rd Round #92.

 

BTW the lowest drafted first team all pro is Buffalo's Jordan Poyer, who was 7th Round #218. Lowest on Offense is J. Kelce - 6th #191

 

This year's all-pro team has 4 1st rounders on Offense, and 6 on defense.  TJ Watt and Heyward were both drafted at later 1st round positions than #25.

 

 

[Seoulofstone]

Interesting Joe Marino retweets on Araiza versus other options:

 

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Seoulofstone

[Mr. WEO]

Just don't punt.  Josh go for it every 4th down.  Let the "number 1 Defense in the NFL" clean up as necessary.  

 

This Offense shouldn't have to worry about the other team's field position....

[Turbo44]

On 3/27/2022 at 12:49 PM, ColoradoBills said:

 

Stout is who I think they draft with a 6th.

I agree plus he’s penn state (pegula) - maybe the 1st 6th rounder. The UGA punter is also excellent 

[without a drought]

Punting is for losers.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

31 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Just don't punt.  Josh go for it every 4th down.  Let the "number 1 Defense in the NFL" clean up as necessary.  

 

This Offense shouldn't have to worry about the other team's field position....

That only works if we are facing 8 rookies/jobbers again like last year.

I like the idea of the punt god (fun fact, my autocorrect changed this to ‘puny god’) but in truth, how many times did we punt from inside our own 30 last year? Or 20? 10?

 

I think we need a guy who’s proven to be highly accurate and a good holder on kicks as it seems like we tend to kick closer to the 50 than our 20.

[gonzo1105]

On 3/27/2022 at 12:49 PM, ColoradoBills said:

 

Stout is who I think they draft with a 6th.

so I’m for Stout more than Araiza cause I think he is just as good and can be had 2 rounds later but if the excuse is that Araiza has no holding experience because he is the kicker than the same can be said for Stout who also kicks for Penn State 

[chongli]

This would have been a good poll question.

[intimidatortj]

I like punters Jordan Stout and Jake Camarda better for the Bills.

 

They consistently drop the ball inside the 20 and 10 yard lines during games, with excellent hang time.

 

That is what you want from your punter.   Not 70 yard punts.   We don't punt much, and when we do we are punting close to the 50 yard line. 

 

PLUS Stout and Camarda will be available to draft in the 6th or 7th round. 

[Mr. WEO]

6 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

That only works if we are facing 8 rookies/jobbers again like last year.

I like the idea of the punt god (fun fact, my autocorrect changed this to ‘puny god’) but in truth, how many times did we punt from inside our own 30 last year? Or 20? 10?

 

I think we need a guy who’s proven to be highly accurate and a good holder on kicks as it seems like we tend to kick closer to the 50 than our 20.

 

The difference between the the longest net punter and Haack last year is 6 yards.  Only 2 punters who played all 17 games punted fewer times than he did. 35% of his punts were inside the 20.  38% 0f his punts were either FC's or downed (zero yards retuned).  Only 21 punts were returned for  a season total of 96 yards.  

 

of all the teams in the NFL, this is the one that shouldn't spend a lot of time fussing over a punter. 

[JaCrispy]

On 3/2/2022 at 7:04 PM, John from Riverside said:

I’m not against drafting a punter But not as early as the fourth round draft a different one

Exactly...we don’t need a “punt god”...because even a mediocre punter would be light years better than Haak- who was dead last in every statistical category...👍

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Exactly...we don’t need a “punt god”...because even a mediocre punter would be light years better than Haak- who was dead last in every statistical category...👍

 

this isn't close to being true.

[CapeBreton]

10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

this isn't close to being true.

isn’t it? I was under the impression that Haack was last in all punting categories. 

[SoMAn]

On 3/2/2022 at 7:20 PM, CSBill said:

If he truly is that impactful, I would go the 3rd.

Absolutely. If for no other reason than if we wait until pick 120 in round 4, he’ll be gone. 
Field position is often a huge part of who cones out on top in closely matched games.  As potent as the Bills’ offense is, there will be times when they’re 4th and 5 inside their own 30. 
And by the way, the guy is a decent place kicker too. Wouldn’t ever expect him to replace Bass, but could be an important emergency backup. 
Don’t discount the importance of special teams and field position. It can be the difference between  3 points or 7 points. How many games are decided by less than 7?

There aren’t too many ‘sure things’ after pick # 10.  If we can get a ‘sure thing’ in round 3, I’d be all in. Wouldn’t even be opposed to trading up in the round. 
 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, CapeBreton said:

isn’t it? I was under the impression that Haack was last in all punting categories. 

 

5 seconds to google...

 

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-stats/punting?sort=puntin20

[Fan in Chicago]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

5 seconds to google...

 

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-stats/punting?sort=puntin20

Spending a lower round pick to lock up one position group for a long time, is worth it imo.

While the Bills don't and shouldn't intend to punt a lot or have to depend on a good punt, I worry about a killer mistake in a critical game. I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling when Haack punts. Good use of a 5th or lower

[buffalobillswin]

Anyone who think Matt Araiza in the 2nd or 3rd round is a good idea probably also thinks the raiders didn’t waste their 1st round pick when they drafted Janikowski

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Spending a lower round pick to lock up one position group for a long time, is worth it imo.

While the Bills don't and shouldn't intend to punt a lot or have to depend on a good punt, I worry about a killer mistake in a critical game. I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling when Haack punts. Good use of a 5th or lower

 

A low draft rookie isn't less likely than Haack of making a "killer mistake".  His stats were as I listed them.  He did have a blocked punt, that's it. 

 

His "awfulness", like many things on this board, gets endlessly repeated until most figure it's true--and then they repeat it. He wasn't last year.  

[Dr. Who]

Just now, buffalobillswin said:

Anyone who think Matt Araiza in the 2nd or 3rd round is a good idea probably also thinks the raiders didn’t waste their 1st round pick when they drafted Janikowski

Ray Guy is the more relevant comparison . . . though maybe you're too young to know that fella. Araiza is worth a fifth round pick, imo.

[finn]

2 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Spending a lower round pick to lock up one position group for a long time, is worth it imo.

While the Bills don't and shouldn't intend to punt a lot or have to depend on a good punt, I worry about a killer mistake in a critical game. I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling when Haack punts. Good use of a 5th or lower

I can see the Bills packaging their 5th, sixth and seventh for a fourth and using that on this guy. Beane must be frustrated that two low-round picks were taken off their practice squad this year. A fourth for a punter sounds high, but this guy is special. If he can consistently buy the Bills D ten yards every time, that's arguably worth even a high fourth. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

35 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The difference between the the longest net punter and Haack last year is 6 yards.  Only 2 punters who played all 17 games punted fewer times than he did. 35% of his punts were inside the 20.  38% 0f his punts were either FC's or downed (zero yards retuned).  Only 21 punts were returned for  a season total of 96 yards.  

 

of all the teams in the NFL, this is the one that shouldn't spend a lot of time fussing over a punter. 

For sure, I think Bills just might value accuracy over power and maybe don’t want to put too much stress on a defense that, in truth, faced a ton of crappy QBs. That’s allI was saying.

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

For sure, I think Bills just might value accuracy over power and maybe don’t want to put too much stress on a defense that, in truth, faced a ton of crappy QBs. That’s allI was saying.

 

If a difference of a net 6 yards against better QBs is a problem for this Defense, then they will struggle to win 11 games.

 

That won't happen.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

On 3/27/2022 at 12:43 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

The PSU punter, Stout, has much better stats involving fair catches, punts inside the 20 and touchbacks.  So, it appears he has more control of his kicks which is a big deal.

 

1 hour ago, Seoulofstone said:

Interesting Joe Marino retweets on Araiza versus other options:

 

 

 

It's also a little different to punting in San Diego compared to Penn St.  Stout may enjoy the Buffalo weather.  Plus we could come up with a much better nickname for a punter named Stout.

 

 

34 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The difference between the the longest net punter and Haack last year is 6 yards.  Only 2 punters who played all 17 games punted fewer times than he did. 35% of his punts were inside the 20.  38% 0f his punts were either FC's or downed (zero yards retuned).  Only 21 punts were returned for  a season total of 96 yards.  

 

of all the teams in the NFL, this is the one that shouldn't spend a lot of time fussing over a punter. 

 

You can find many posts about what a mistake it was giving up Bojo for Haack, but when you compare the stats between them two, they were very close.  Ironically too there were only 3 punts resulting in TD's the block by Haack and one of Bojo's was returned for a TD.

 

I will say this I had also looked at the punting stats a few weeks back and was surprised how close Haack was to the best in the league.  But my eyes told me a different story watching him last season.  So the only explanation I can come up with is Haack was very inconsistent??

 

To me overall with this team holding is more important than a handful of yards at most difference on punts.

[Paul Costa]

Go get Stout @185. We can give him a cool nickname too!! 

[Mr. WEO]

9 minutes ago, finn said:

I can see the Bills packaging their 5th, sixth and seventh for a fourth and using that on this guy. Beane must be frustrated that two low-round picks were taken off their practice squad this year. A fourth for a punter sounds high, but this guy is special. If he can consistently buy the Bills D ten yards every time, that's arguably worth even a high fourth. 

 

That's not going to happen.  See above.

 

2 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

It's also a little different to punting in San Diego compared to Penn St.  Stout may enjoy the Buffalo weather.  Plus we could come up with a much better nickname for a punter named Stout.

 

 

 

You can find many posts about what a mistake it was giving up Bojo for Haack, but when you compare the stats between them two, they were very close.  Ironically too there were only 3 punts resulting in TD's the block by Haack and one of Bojo's was returned for a TD.

 

I will say this I had also looked at the punting stats a few weeks back and was surprised how close Haack was to the best in the league.  But my eyes told me a different story watching him last season.  So the only explanation I can come up with is Haack was very inconsistent??

 

To me overall with this team holding is more important than a handful of yards at most difference on punts.

 

Bojo + Bass:  missed 3 of their first 9 FG.  After week 6, they went 22/25, getting Bass to a Bills record breaking season--as a rookie.

[LABILLBACKER]

7 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

It's also a little different to punting in San Diego compared to Penn St.  Stout may enjoy the Buffalo weather.  Plus we could come up with a much better nickname for a punter named Stout.

 

 

 

You can find many posts about what a mistake it was giving up Bojo for Haack, but when you compare the stats between them two, they were very close.  Ironically too there were only 3 punts resulting in TD's the block by Haack and one of Bojo's was returned for a TD.

 

I will say this I had also looked at the punting stats a few weeks back and was surprised how close Haack was to the best in the league.  But my eyes told me a different story watching him last season.  So the only explanation I can come up with is Haack was very inconsistent??

 

To me overall with this team holding is more important than a handful of yards at most difference on punts.

Good Lord....just watch the Steeler and final Jets game. Haack is terrible. I could care less if he magically spins the ball perfectly for Bass. We lost home field advantage by 1 game. His net was dead last at 37.6, so excuse me if I'm willing to call it a day on Haack and spend a 5th or 6th pick on a better punter. Anyone can be trained to hold kicks. If I can give our defense an extra 5-7 yards of field position I will.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

17 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Spending a lower round pick to lock up one position group for a long time, is worth it imo.

While the Bills don't and shouldn't intend to punt a lot or have to depend on a good punt, I worry about a killer mistake in a critical game. I don't have a warm fuzzy feeling when Haack punts. Good use of a 5th or lower

 

 

You mean like a bad hold, something we saw a lot of with Bojo.  And you want to put a rookie back there with limited experience with holding .  There were only 2 punts ran back for TD's all last season, Bojo alone had more missed field goals due to bad holds.  BTW, one of the TD's returned was against him too

 

 

11 minutes ago, finn said:

I can see the Bills packaging their 5th, sixth and seventh for a fourth and using that on this guy. Beane must be frustrated that two low-round picks were taken off their practice squad this year. A fourth for a punter sounds high, but this guy is special.

If he can consistently buy the Bills D ten yards every time, that's arguably worth even a high fourth. 

 

With a football field only 100 yards long correct that's not very likely.  The Bills have a pretty good offense, how many times did they go three and out?  Assume they start on their own 20/25 after a touch back and gain only one first down and another 5 yards and now have 4th and 5 on the 40.  A punt going 50 yards in the air would land at the 10, likely anything much longer will be left to roll into the end zone anyway.  I'd imagine a punters target would be around the 10 for that reason and for bad bounces. 

 

So the likelihood of gaining ten yards on a punt is not likely.  As stated above the net difference between the best and worst punters in the league was only 6 yards.

 

If his leg is a strong as advertised, with Araiza, good chance the team could lead the league in touch backs.  I'd also be a bit nervous with him if he would mentally try to just boom everything to impress?

[MrEpsYtown]

24 minutes ago, buffalobillswin said:

Anyone who think Matt Araiza in the 2nd or 3rd round is a good idea probably also thinks the raiders didn’t waste their 1st round pick when they drafted Janikowski

Well we picked Erik Flowers in that same round, in the same draft in which people passed on Tom Brady 198 times. But Janikowski was a better player than pretty much everyone picked after him in that round aside from Shaun Alexander, maybe Keith Bulluck. He was a generational talent. Was it crazy? Yeah. Was it the right move in hindsignt? Probably not. But he was probably the 5th or 6th best player taken in that first round. 

[MrEpsYtown]

24 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

For sure, I think Bills just might value accuracy over power and maybe don’t want to put too much stress on a defense that, in truth, faced a ton of crappy QBs. That’s allI was saying.

I think they value points above all. And I think that is why Haack is still here. Field goals and extra points have to be close to automatic. With Bojo they weren’t and he almost single handedly ruined the career of Mason Crosby. 
 

But I agree, accuracy over power. Now if they can find accuracy, power, and holding, they are in business. 

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Good Lord....just watch the Steeler and final Jets game. Haack is terrible. I could care less if he magically spins the ball perfectly for Bass. We lost home field advantage by 1 game. His net was dead last at 37.6, so excuse me if I'm willing to call it a day on Haack and spend a 5th or 6th pick on a better punter. Anyone can be trained to hold kicks. If I can give our defense an extra 5-7 yards of field position I will.

 

No team loses home field in week 1, lol.  That's nuts.  The Bills gave up 20 unanswered points after a 1st half shutout of the Steelers. The Bills would score only 2 FG the rest of the game.

 

as posted above, the difference between Haack and the best in the league re: Net, is 7 yards.  A rookie is unlikely to be the best in the league next year (to close that gap). 

[Seoulofstone]

Regarding this topic in the context of the draft, I think it’s fair to say the Bills don’t need a generational punter especially at a high draft slot, but it’s not unreasonable to hope for a league average punter who is otherwise anonymous and inexpensive. Some of those Haack shanks towards the end of the regular season were egregious.