Athletic article forecasting our cap casualties

[transplantbillsfan]

https://theathletic.com/3110889/2022/02/03/forecasting-bills-2022-cap-casualty-candidates-including-mitch-morse-cole-beasley-and-star-lotulelei/

 

Basically the prediction is we keep Morse and Beasley... that's it.

 

Whether cut or potentially traded (Ford), the prediction is that D Williams, Klein, Star, Feliciano, Matakevich, Ford, & Hack are all gone.

 

 

If that were all to hold true, cutting those players would give us just over $24 million in Cap savings.

 

I still wish we would make every effort to resign McKenzie and cut Beasley, who is a $7.6 million Cap hit this coming season.

[HOUSE]

Morse was my choice for Offensive line coach....damn

[BuffaloBillyG]

I think Matakevich will be offered to stay with a pay cut like Morse was last year. He takes a lot of the core ST snaps. If he takes it or not is another issue.

 

I think Ford's future with the team hinges on if he fits what Dorsey wants to run in the blocking schemes. If he fits what we went to do (even as a reserve) he'll likely be here finishing out his rookie contract. 

 

Even though Beane "anticipates Beasley being back" he also said they have not had a conversation yet. At his current cap hit...not certain he's here. Also, no guarentee he will rework his deal which may end up leading to a release. 

 

Lots of moving parts with all these guys, for sure.

[transplantbillsfan]

Oh and also, this little nugget

 

 

But in all the turnover came a small clue about what to expect from the Bills’ offseason.

 

When fielding questions at his introductory news conference, Schoen alluded to what he was doing for the Bills leading up to getting hired by the Giants.

 

“I was working towards free agency,” he said. “We were gonna have some money over there.”

 

 

we're cutting players and freeing up money.

[Wizard]

I would be okay with all of these guys gone.

 

Beasley, Williams, and Morse have value. The question is their price and the depth of team and needs.

 

If cutting these players gets us Bates and Phillips and the possibility of resigning McKenzie/Wallace and 1-2 upgrades at any of the following areas: OG/ 3rd WR/2nd RB/2nd CB/Big DT/Upgraded Edge, then sign me up.

 

 

 

[Doc]

Don't see Williams being cut because there's no replacement on the market who will come even at the same price and be better.  I can see an extension for Klein.  Beasley will depend on who they can get in FA and/or the draft. The rest can go.

[artmalibu]

I know Star is not popular around here, but with 7.7 mil in dead money and a total savings of 1.5 mil I say keep him.  Im not sure how many guys that are out there that are better for less than 1.5 mil...

[transplantbillsfan]

7 minutes ago, Doc said:

Don't see Williams being cut because there's no replacement on the market who will come even at the same price and be better.  I can see an extension for Klein.  Beasley will depend on who they can get in FA and/or the draft. The rest can go.

 

They actually speculate more that he'll take a pay cut, but wouldn't be surprised if he's cut.

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

I know Star is not popular around here, but with 7.7 mil in dead money and a total savings of 1.5 mil I say keep him.  Im not sure how many guys that are out there that are better for less than 1.5 mil...

 

He only managed to play in 11 games despite a full year off.  And he's 32.  Not worth it.  Time to turn the page.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

I know Star is not popular around here, but with 7.7 mil in dead money and a total savings of 1.5 mil I say keep him.  Im not sure how many guys that are out there that are better for less than 1.5 mil...

 

I tend to agree.  I hope we can resign Phillips and I hope Zimmer comes back healthy.  Having Oliver and Phillips as our starters with Zimmer and Star able to rotate in next year seems like a pretty darn good DT rotation.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

They actually speculate more that he'll take a pay cut, but wouldn't be surprised if he's cut.

 

They may approach him about a pay cut or extension to lower his base salary.  But I can't see them cutting him, again given the market.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

He only managed to play in 11 games despite a full year off.  And he's 32.  Not worth it.  Time to turn the page.

 

 

 

I think the other poster's perspective on it is the way the Bills will approach it, though.

 

It's only a savings of $1.5 million to cut him.  Star would be a fantastic backup/rotational DT.  He was still pretty good on the field this year.  

[BuffaloMatt]

Players like to stay with winning teams. I foresee many a restructure. 

[eSJayDee]

I think relative to his performance, Klein is not overpaid.  Relative to how much we use him, he is.  Having a $5m guy or whatever sitting on the bench is a luxury & one I don't think we can afford.

Star is overpaid.  But, w/ all his dead cap, can you really replace his production for ~$1.5 or whatever the savings?  Dubious.

Assuming we run relatively the same offense as before, IF we resign McKenzie (for a relatively modest amount), I think Beasley's production is overpriced & he's a goner.  If we lose McKenzie, maybe try to extend Beasley so his cap hit isn't as much & then likely have some dead hit next yr.  (Sort of like what we did w/ Addison.)

[artmalibu]

8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I think the other poster's perspective on it is the way the Bills will approach it, though.

 

It's only a savings of $1.5 million to cut him.  Star would be a fantastic backup/rotational DT.  He was still pretty good on the field this year.  

 

 

Yes, that is my point.  In reality he is only costing 1.5 mil.   I think some are seeing his 9.6 mil cap hit and think cut him.  I would too if there was no dead money.  

 

If

 

 

 

 

[Punching Bag]

17 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

I know Star is not popular around here, but with 7.7 mil in dead money and a total savings of 1.5 mil I say keep him.  Im not sure how many guys that are out there that are better for less than 1.5 mil...

 

The issue with Star is availability and he has not been very available.  I was a big supporter of him and no longer.

There are guys who will be available for 1.5 million is you count per game available.

[BarleyNY]

Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I think the other poster's perspective on it is the way the Bills will approach it, though.

 

It's only a savings of $1.5 million to cut him.  Star would be a fantastic backup/rotational DT.  He was still pretty good on the field this year.  

I’m not a fan of his play, but I think there’s a fair chance Star will stay another year too.  One is what you pointed out - only a $1.5M cap savings, though that includes $2.6M dead cap accelerated from 2023.  They could designate him a July 1st cut and keep that $2.6M dead cap in 2023, which would create $4.1M in room in 2022.

 

But the bigger issue to me is that Oliver is the only other DT currently under contract for 2022 (unless you want to count Basham, which I wouldn’t).  Star is due a $500k roster bonus on 3/22.  The league year starts on 3/16.  So it might all come down to whether or not Beane can find a suitable replacement for him and at what price.  Or maybe he does take a pay cut to stay.

 

Heres hoping they can sign Phillips to a reasonable extension before 3/16 too.  That might help them make the decision on Star. 

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Whether cut or potentially traded (Ford), the prediction is that D Williams, Klein, Star, Feliciano, Matakevich, Ford, & Hack are all gone.

 

I can see all these guys potentially being cap casualties.  A couple of these guys may be asked first to take a pay cut.

 

Beane got 3 players to take pay cuts last year and I think he goes for that again.

Williams was signed as a RT and has been "demoted" (at least for salary wise) to RG.  I can see him taking a $1M to $2M cut.

 

If Star was cut it's only $1.5M cap savings but if he decides to retire and the Bills let him keep his signing bonus but then he gives up

another $2.5M in 2022 guaranteed salary of dead cap.  A result of $4.0M in cap savings and not having him on the 2023 roster I think

is worth it.

 

Beane also will do some modest restructures.

 

 

[Punching Bag]

17 minutes ago, Doc said:

He only managed to play in 11 games despite a full year off.  And he's 32.  Not worth it.  Time to turn the page.

 

Availability should be looked at by front office - all availability factors whether personal or not able to stay healthy.

[Mark Vader]

33 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Oh and also, this little nugget

 

 

But in all the turnover came a small clue about what to expect from the Bills’ offseason.

 

When fielding questions at his introductory news conference, Schoen alluded to what he was doing for the Bills leading up to getting hired by the Giants.

 

“I was working towards free agency,” he said. “We were gonna have some money over there.”

 

 

we're cutting players and freeing up money.

There could also be a good amount of restructuring of contracts too.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

29 minutes ago, Doc said:

Don't see Williams being cut because there's no replacement on the market who will come even at the same price and be better.  I can see an extension for Klein.  Beasley will depend on who they can get in FA and/or the draft. The rest can go.

Williams really turned the season around and became solid at guard. 

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Williams really turned the season around and became solid at guard. 

 

I agree.  Shift him to RG full-time and have him get himself ready mentally and physically for that role.  Again I don't see an alternative who will be better and even the same price.  They will have to look to the draft for that.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://theathletic.com/3110889/2022/02/03/forecasting-bills-2022-cap-casualty-candidates-including-mitch-morse-cole-beasley-and-star-lotulelei/

 

Basically the prediction is we keep Morse and Beasley... that's it.

 

Whether cut or potentially traded (Ford), the prediction is that D Williams, Klein, Star, Feliciano, Matakevich, Ford, & Hack are all gone.

 

That's actually not what I read:

"Regardless, Williams seems like a candidate for a pay cut above all else" (then he goes on to say the Bills might cut him"

 

He was also wishy-washy about keeping Beasley:

"Like Williams, Beasley seems like a distinct candidate for a pay cut. Beasley’s impact, snap count and trajectory do not add up to a nearly $8 million player, but the player has to agree to those terms. Whether Beasley would do so is unknown. My guess is that Beasley will be back next season if he’s playing in the NFL."

 

He forcasts that we'll move on from Lotulelei, but the savings from cutting him are meagre, only $1.5M.  That's not much above vet minimum, and might cost us more to replace him.  So I suspect whether he stays or we move on, will depend upon where we think he is health-wise and what he wants to do.

 

The most positive part of it was at the beginning, the quotes from Schoen and Beane:

Quote

When fielding questions at his introductory news conference, Schoen alluded to what he was doing for the Bills leading up to getting hired by the Giants.

“I was working towards free agency,” he said. “We were gonna have some money over there.”

 

That’s not far removed from what Beane said in Orchard Park on the same day during his season-ending news conference. Beane discussed having a bit more flexibility with an increased salary cap in 2022. “We’ll still have to make some moves,” Beane said. “I wouldn’t see us being like, big spenders or anything like that, but we’ll look to fill some spots from the outside as well as retain some of our guys.”

 

Probably the most interesting part was at the end:

Quote

The name to keep an eye on here is Diggs. With the cost of receivers going up, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Bills make taking care of their star receiver a priority. His contract expires after the 2023 season, and with the 2023 cap expected to jump, the Bills could lock in Diggs to a long-term deal. At the same time, they can reduce his 2022 cap hit from its current figure of $17.9 million and give themselves more breathing room this year.

 

Beane seems to like to start negotiating with important players the year before their contract is up.  Renegotiating Diggs contract to extend him and lower his 2020 cap hit would actually give us more space than cutting a lot of these guys.

 

Working on an extension for Edmunds would also accomplish this, though it seems like 3/4 of TBD would choke on their Cheerios if that happens.

 

Overall, I thought it was pretty wishy-washy and vague from Joe B.

[ArtVandalay]

Williams is garbage, addition by subtraction. Guy was a welcome addition in 2020 but man he was a liability,  especially in the Jaguars game when he didn't even know the snap count ugh. 

 

We need 2 new guards to be honest, unless we keep Bates but I expect NJG to offer him a decent deal.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

Just now, ArtVandalay said:

Williams is garbage, addition by subtraction. Guy was a welcome addition in 2020 but man he was a liability,  especially in the Jaguars game when he didn't even know the snap count ugh. 

 

We need 2 new guards to be honest, unless we keep Bates but I expect NJG to offer him a decent deal.

 

 

 

Bates is a RFA.  Bills own his rights.  I'm betting on a 2nd round tender.

[Lost]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Working on an extension for Edmunds would also accomplish this, though it seems like 3/4 of TBD would choke on their Cheerios if that happens.

 

 

Flutie Flakes my man, we'll be choking on Flutie Flakes

[gobills404]

47 minutes ago, Doc said:

Don't see Williams being cut because there's no replacement on the market who will come even at the same price and be better.  I can see an extension for Klein.  Beasley will depend on who they can get in FA and/or the draft. The rest can go.

If a 3rd year UDFA can outplay him then so can an affordable vet. But we know Beane uses free agency to plug holes and I doubt he would create a hole by cutting Williams. Hopefully they can get him to take a pay cut because $9.9 million is wayyyyyyy too much for a mediocre guard to be making.

[billsfan714]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's actually not what I read:

"Regardless, Williams seems like a candidate for a pay cut above all else" (then he goes on to say the Bills might cut him"

 

He was also wishy-washy about keeping Beasley:

"Like Williams, Beasley seems like a distinct candidate for a pay cut. Beasley’s impact, snap count and trajectory do not add up to a nearly $8 million player, but the player has to agree to those terms. Whether Beasley would do so is unknown. My guess is that Beasley will be back next season if he’s playing in the NFL."

 

He forcasts that we'll move on from Lotulelei, but the savings from cutting him are meagre, only $1.5M.  That's not much above vet minimum, and might cost us more to replace him.  So I suspect whether he stays or we move on, will depend upon where we think he is health-wise and what he wants to do.

 

The most positive part of it was at the beginning, the quotes from Schoen and Beane:

 

Probably the most interesting part was at the end:

 

Beane seems to like to start negotiating with important players the year before their contract is up.  Renegotiating Diggs contract to extend him and lower his 2020 cap hit would actually give us more space than cutting a lot of these guys.

 

Working on an extension for Edmunds would also accomplish this, though it seems like 3/4 of TBD would choke on their Cheerios if that happens.

 

Overall, I thought it was pretty wishy-washy and vague from Joe B.

As a proud member of the 3/4 club, i am actually coming back from the ledge that Edmunds is going to be extended.   Seems a lot negotiations (not all), but most, stop when the season starts.   So if Beane doesnt extend Edmunds before the start of week 1, then the end of the 22 season leaves the Bills 2 options,  tag Edmunds or let him test FA.   Im coming around to they will let him test FA unless he turns it up to 11 next year.

Edited February 3, 2022 by billsfan714

[Chandler#81]

23 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

There could also be a good amount of restructuring of contracts too.

I’d be surprised as Beane stated in his End Presser they pretty much did that last year and are stuck with those results -or words to that effect.

[frostbitmic]

Seeing three Guards on that list might be a Guard too many, especially since Bates is a RFA as well. I can't see them getting rid of Williams, but Feliciano and Ford could be wearing Jersey Blue next season.

 

I could see Klein coming back on the cheap.

 

I could see the Bills and Beasley mutually decide to go in separate directions.

 

We don't need a Punter, save the money and make QB2 the holder on FGs and XPs.

[SoCal Deek]

I would love to be a fly on the wall when they bring Williams in to talk about a pay cut. I'd imagine he's going to be thinking..."Aren't you the same guys, and isn't this the same room where we negotiated a big pay RAISE less than a year ago?"  

Edited February 3, 2022 by SoCal Deek

[Doc]

6 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

If a 3rd year UDFA can outplay him then so can an affordable vet. But we know Beane uses free agency to plug holes and I doubt he would create a hole by cutting Williams. Hopefully they can get him to take a pay cut because $9.9 million is wayyyyyyy too much for a mediocre guard to be making.

 

Who? 

 

I'd still try to extend him a year to lower his average salary.

 

 

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

I would love to be a fly on the wall when they bring Williams in to talk about a pay cut. I'd imagine he's going to be thinking..."Aren't you the same guys, and isn't this the same room where we negotiated a big pay RAISE less than a year ago?"  

 

"Yes, but as a RT, where you struggled this year.  So we're moving you permanently to RG."

[No_Matter_What]

Williams isn't going anywhere imo. We need to upgrade the line, not make it weaker. He was solid at guard second half of the season and he is fine as backup tackle.

 

I'd re-sign Bates, bring in Scherff or other best available FA OG, draft IOL in first 3 rounds and still keep Williams. OL has to be a priority.

[skibum]

Beasley has been great at times, but there are probably some very good FA receivers out there who would play with Josh Allen for free. And likewise, there will be many desperate teams looking for a Beasley-type safety valve for their barely adequate QB. On the other hand, if Sanders is also gone, Davis can't replace both vets. 

 

I don't envy NFL GMs (except for their salaries, of course). It's a complex matrix, and you can only control so much of it anyway. 

Edited February 4, 2022 by skibum

[SoCal Deek]

17 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

"Yes, but as a RT, where you struggled this year.  So we're moving you permanently to RG."

I'm sure that's exactly what Beane's going to say, but I'm also pretty sure Williams agent is going to reply...."So says you, because you then went and drafted a RT....maybe I wouldn't be being asked to take a pay cut had you drafted a RG". 😉

[BrooklynBills]

I don't see Morse or Beasley back at their current cap numbers. Morse has the 4th highest cap hit for a center in the NFL. He's a good player but I think they'll be looking to either get that number down or find a similar player at a lower number.

[SoCal Deek]

I'll never cease to be amazed at how much work they make for themselves with the way NFL contracts are structured. Seems to me they should be shaped more like a traditional bell curve, where they gradually go up and then gradually go back down. The player wouldn't feel like the Team doesn't love them anymore, and the Team wouldn't have these awkward moments where they have to give their one-prized free agent an ultimatum. I'm sure they know what they're doing but from the outside it looks like working harder, rather than smarter.

[BubbaT]

On 2/3/2022 at 5:49 PM, Doc said:

Don't see Williams being cut because there's no replacement on the market who will come even at the same price and be better.  I can see an extension for Klein.  Beasley will depend on who they can get in FA and/or the draft. The rest can go.

He’s also their backup right tackle. He fills 2 roles. I think I’d trust him more than Tommy Doyle if there is an injury to Brown

Edited February 6, 2022 by BubbaT

[Jay_Fixit]

Good. Matt Araiza in the first.

[gordong]

Best news of all.   "Hack are all gone."  

 

 

God he was horrible...