Dawson Knox - he improved greatly, but was it enough? 2022 is his contract year

[Mr. WEO]

54 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Do you watch other TE’s?   Even Kittle, Kelce etc have drops.  Knox drastically improved that this year.  TE’s just aren’t as sure-handed all the time as WR’s.  
 

Diontae Johnson has games where he’s legitimately a liability.  Knox is nowhere close to that.  
 

Yes, keep Knox.  He’s a Top 10 TE, and is still improving. 
 

 

 

It's never a convincing argument when considering a mediocre player to say "even the best in the league make mistakes".

 

But, since you did, in the last 3 years:

 

Knox 18 drops on 165 targets for 10.9%.

 

Kelce 20 drops on a whopping 415 targets for 4.8% (averaging as many yards per season as Knox has in career total).

 

Kittle 10 drops on 264 targets for 3.8%.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

That’s probably true. I just think Knox is being overrated in this thread.

 

Sure, but like any subject on this board you see a lot of over and under rating players.

 

If they can lock up Knox anywhere around $8M per that puts him as a good deal IMO.

Finding a Kelce or Kittle is more luck than skill and it seems to me trying to pursue that when gaging TEs is a fools errand.

Knox has the potential to be the best TE the Bills ever had (not that it's a big accomplishment) but you have to have a

TE that teams have to game plan on.  Keep him and draft a guy from the 4th on down and hope he can perform too.

[Charles Romes]

I think Beane will sign him up long term in the off-season to a reasonable contract in view of his production. 

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

It's never a convincing argument when considering a mediocre player to say "even the best in the league make mistakes".

 

But, since you did, in the last 3 years:

 

Knox 18 drops on 165 targets for 10.9%.

 

Kelce 20 drops on a whopping 415 targets for 4.8% (averaging as many yards per season as Knox has in career total).

 

Kittle 10 drops on 264 targets for 3.8%.

 

 

 

Do you have his drop % for only this past year?

[Buddo]

As someone who (like Hapless) has been quite critical of Knox previously, I'm now in the camp of him being worth re-signing.

 

The two simple reasons are his TDs, and his vastly improved blocking. In one of the games against the Cheats, he stone walled Judon on a number of occasions.

 

I think this season has seen him develop into a very serviceable, all round TE - and there's still room for improvement.

 

The biggest problem the Bills have in relation to Knox, is how much to pay him, as the TE 'market' is way messed up - largely due to the silly money the Cheats threw at Henry and Jonnu Smith, neither of which looked worth half of it.

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

I think Beane will sign him up long term in the off-season to a reasonable contract in view of his production. 

 

FWIW the league just gave Knox a decent bump in pay for 2022 under the "Proven Performance Bonus" program.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

He's the best TE the Bills have had since they played in the AFL.  Not sure what the question is.  He is a top 8 TE in this league.  Yes you pay him. 

They need a better TE #2.  Gilliam and Sweeney need to both go. They are roster bottom feeders.  Doyle or another OT is your blocking TE.  I would prefer a veteran as TE #2. The position takes a long time to learn.  

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

He's the best TE the Bills have had since they played in the AFL.  Not sure what the question is.  He is a top 8 TE in this league.  Yes you pay him. 

They need a better TE #2.  Gilliam and Sweeney need to both go. They are roster bottom feeders.  Doyle or another OT is your blocking TE.  I would prefer a veteran as TE #2. The position takes a long time to learn.  

 

Sweeney will go to camp but they definitely need to bring in someone to displace him.

Gilliam's worth has to be tied to his FB play.  That being said bringing in a FB during camp to compete is something that I think should

be done.  Gilliam is way too short to be considered a TE.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This was spurred by comments I made in the Gronk thread

 

Knox improved greatly this season, but did he improve enough?

 

When you look at his productivity per game, it's an improvement, but a smaller improvement than one might like to see

 

In 2020, he had 40.5 snaps per game. 

In 2021, he had 61.1 snaps per game (87% of offensive snaps)

That's a 51% increase in snaps per game.

 

In 2020, he had 2.2 receptions per game

In 2021, he had 3.3 receptions per game

That's a 50% increase in receptions per game

 

In 2020, he gained 24 yards per game

In 2021, he gained 39 yards per game

That's a 63% increase in yards per game

 

But the  bottom line - while 587 yds is much better productivity than 287 yds last year, his productivity in the passing game improved only slightly relative to the increased number of snaps he saw. 

 

I don't have a good sense as to how often he was used in the passing game (or open) relative to how much he was asked to block.

 

He improved in other ways, of course:

 

His catch % improved markedly, from 54.5% to 69%

So did his yards per target from 6.5 to 8.3

 

His drops stayed constant, 3, which means as a percentage of targets, they improved from 9.1% to 5.6%

Most critically - last year he had 2 fumbles.  This year he did not fumble.

 

I'm not Joe Expert, but to my perception his blocking showed a big improvement this season, as did his route running to the point where they actually were able to line him up as a receiver.  His physicality as a route runner improved markedly, as well.

 

How was he relative to other TE across the league?  I had to pull data from PFR and sort it myself to get this. 

 

Among TE, Knox was:

13th for Y/G with 39

14th for Y/Tgt with 8.3

15th for Y/R with 12

14th for 1D with 41

28th in Catch% (of TE with more than 25 targets) at 69%

Tied for 1st in TD with 9 (4 way tie)

 

So except in TDs, kind of middling

 

Obviously Knox has developed into a competent NFL TE who shows flashes of better.  And some of the above comparison is unfair, as it lumps him in with TE who are primarily WR while Knox is asked to block quite a bit.

 

This is Knox's contract year, and while I think he's worth the $2.7M he'll count against the cap in 2022, does his production merit a big payday?  Being the #12-18 TE would slot him in currently for an AAV around $6.5-8M AAV, or a contract between $16M and $29M

 

IMHO, this is reason to draft a young TE in what is supposed to be a deep TE draft class, because while Knox has improved, it seems to me that he has not yet become that Star TE we were hoping to draft and develop.  He has not become Allen's Kelce or Kittle or Andrews, or even Goeddert or Waller.  He is a good young TE, though.

 

Thoughts?

I would rather pay Knox than Edmunds…let’s put it that way.

 

I wouldn’t kind drafting another TE as well but there are some more pressing needs that the Bills have this season IMO

Edited January 30, 2022 by JohnNord

[Big Blitz]

Will he be Kelce Andrews Waller (basically a WR) Kittle Hock Goedert or Ertz - probably not.  What we definitely need is a better #2.  

 

He's in a tier right behind those guys.  He's also not quite at his ceiling yet.

 

He's fast.  Can block.  Has good chemistry with Josh.  

 

The offense needs a better version of McKenzie.  And a bigger WR for the red zone to round out your 5/6 guys - if Beasley and Sanders are gone.  Knox is the least of our concerns.  Because here is what we have so far:

 

 

Diggs

Davis

?

?

?

?

Knox/Sweeney 

Singletary 

 

[Doc]

41 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Will he be Kelce Andrews Waller (basically a WR) Kittle Hock Goedert or Ertz - probably not.  What we definitely need is a better #2.  

 

He's in a tier right behind those guys.  He's also not quite at his ceiling yet.

 

He's fast.  Can block.  Has good chemistry with Josh.  

 

The offense needs a better version of McKenzie.  And a bigger WR for the red zone to round out your 5/6 guys - if Beasley and Sanders are gone.  Knox is the least of our concerns.  Because here is what we have so far:

 

 

Diggs

Davis

?

?

?

?

Knox/Sweeney 

Singletary 

 

 

The top tier is Kelce, Kittle, Waller and now Pitts.  Knox is the next tier, and towards the top end of it.

Edited January 30, 2022 by Doc

[CoudyBills]

Probably too simple but for me, no.  First pass in Arrowhead hit him right in the hands and he dropped it.  Cannot have that.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Not as good as we need him to be bit hopefully he takes another step next year

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

47 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Sure, but like any subject on this board you see a lot of over and under rating players.

 

If they can lock up Knox anywhere around $8M per that puts him as a good deal IMO.

Finding a Kelce or Kittle is more luck than skill and it seems to me trying to pursue that when gaging TEs is a fools errand.

Knox has the potential to be the best TE the Bills ever had (not that it's a big accomplishment) but you have to have a

TE that teams have to game plan on.  Keep him and draft a guy from the 4th on down and hope he can perform too.

To the OP, yes, Knox has shown enough!  This is the process they speak of.  Draft a raw stud, develop him, and keep him.

 

And furthermore the smart teams extend before the contract is up.  Knox should be treated in the Josh/Tre category of working out the contract before they are done with their original one.  That is the advantage you have from drafting smart.  You can extend them at a fair price before they hit the open market.  They get money early and the Bills get a good improving player at market rate (and the market keeps going up).

 

To Colorado, the question will be what it will take.  I think Knox will be reasonable but Kroft got $6, Jonnu and Hunter got $12M.  Yes, if they can get him for $8 for several years, you take it.  I don't know if that is enough to get it done.

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

Knox is turning into our George Kittle/Travis Kelce and him an Allen have had a great connection so far, I definitely think he's a keeper imo.

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

To Colorado, the question will be what it will take.  I think Knox will be reasonable but Kroft got $6, Jonnu and Hunter got $12M.  Yes, if they can get him for $8 for several years, you take it.  I don't know if that is enough to get it done.

 

I don't know either.  I am hoping Knox and his agent go for a 3 year extension that works for both of them and the Bills.

[Joe Mama]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

 

To Colorado, the question will be what it will take.  I think Knox will be reasonable but Kroft got $6, Jonnu and Hunter got $12M.  Yes, if they can get him for $8 for several years, you take it.  I don't know if that is enough to get it done.

Knowing this, think he would have to sue his agent for malpractice if he got him a $8M contract.

[billybrew1]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This was spurred by comments I made in the Gronk thread

 

Knox improved greatly this season, but did he improve enough?

 

When you look at his productivity per game, it's an improvement, but a smaller improvement than one might like to see

 

In 2020, he had 40.5 snaps per game. 

In 2021, he had 61.1 snaps per game (87% of offensive snaps)

That's a 51% increase in snaps per game.

 

In 2020, he had 2.2 receptions per game

In 2021, he had 3.3 receptions per game

That's a 50% increase in receptions per game

 

In 2020, he gained 24 yards per game

In 2021, he gained 39 yards per game

That's a 63% increase in yards per game

 

But the  bottom line - while 587 yds is much better productivity than 287 yds last year, his productivity in the passing game improved only slightly relative to the increased number of snaps he saw. 

 

I don't have a good sense as to how often he was used in the passing game (or open) relative to how much he was asked to block.

 

He improved in other ways, of course:

 

His catch % improved markedly, from 54.5% to 69%

So did his yards per target from 6.5 to 8.3

 

His drops stayed constant, 3, which means as a percentage of targets, they improved from 9.1% to 5.6%

Most critically - last year he had 2 fumbles.  This year he did not fumble.

 

I'm not Joe Expert, but to my perception his blocking showed a big improvement this season, as did his route running to the point where they actually were able to line him up as a receiver.  His physicality as a route runner improved markedly, as well.

 

How was he relative to other TE across the league?  I had to pull data from PFR and sort it myself to get this. 

 

Among TE, Knox was:

13th for Y/G with 39

14th for Y/Tgt with 8.3

15th for Y/R with 12

14th for 1D with 41

28th in Catch% (of TE with more than 25 targets) at 69%

Tied for 1st in TD with 9 (4 way tie)

 

So except in TDs, kind of middling

 

Obviously Knox has developed into a competent NFL TE who shows flashes of better.  And some of the above comparison is unfair, as it lumps him in with TE who are primarily WR while Knox is asked to block quite a bit.

 

This is Knox's contract year, and while I think he's worth the $2.7M he'll count against the cap in 2022, does his production merit a big payday?  Being the #12-18 TE would slot him in currently for an AAV around $6.5-8M AAV, or a contract between $16M and $29M

 

IMHO, this is reason to draft a young TE in what is supposed to be a deep TE draft class, because while Knox has improved, it seems to me that he has not yet become that Star TE we were hoping to draft and develop.  He has not become Allen's Kelce or Kittle or Andrews, or even Goeddert or Waller.  He is a good young TE, though.

 

Thoughts?

The Bills are going to have a very tough time keeping all their starters together from here on out. I wouldn't hold a grudge against Knox in any way. He is ALREADY the best TE to suit up in a Bills uniform ever; and it's by a country mile.

 

Go Bills!

[Maynard]

I just bought his jersey a few weeks ago. I shall expect he gets tossed to the curb shortly. 

[ArtVandalay]

Third straight year of improving his once horrific drops. Still has plenty of bone head plays - drops, penalties - remember his false start that cost us points in the first Patriots game? He was brutal that day. 

 

Even so with his big breakout this year we are talking. 40-something catches and 500- something yards? That grows on trees with a QB as productive as Allen.  Not worth big money. 

 

We'll see how he improves next season, he's got lots of athletic ability just a rock head.

Edited January 30, 2022 by ArtVandalay

[BillsFan619]

While I think he can still improve, I do think it was enough (not that my opinion is worth anything). You can tell that he can play at an elite level and he already has the all-time franchise TD record for tight ends.

 

While I’m not predicting anything, I do think that Dawson Knox can be an elite and dominating tight end in this league.

[Rocbillsfan1]

This thread is ridiculous. The problem is McDermott not Dawson Knox.

[QLBillsFan]

4 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

It's never a convincing argument when considering a mediocre player to say "even the best in the league make mistakes".

 

But, since you did, in the last 3 years:

 

Knox 18 drops on 165 targets for 10.9%.

 

Kelce 20 drops on a whopping 415 targets for 4.8% (averaging as many yards per season as Knox has in career total).

 

Kittle 10 drops on 264 targets for 3.8%.

 

 

Yes would like to clean up the drops. Knox without a doubt a top 10 TE who is very explosive. Let’s get rid of him 😳🙄.. he made huge strides this year. And has excellent chemistry with JA. Well well above  mediocre. 

Edited January 30, 2022 by QLBillsFan

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, QLBillsFan said:

Yes would like to clean up the drops. Knox without a doubt a top 10 TE who is very explosive. Let’s get rid of him 😳🙄.. he made huge strides this year. And has excellent chemistry with JA. Well well about mediocre. 

he had 9 TDS. Outside of that, not top 10.  
 

I didn’t say get rid of him. I asked what money would a mediocre TE command …

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

he had 9 TDS. Outside of that, not top 10.  
 

I didn’t say get rid of him. I asked what money would a mediocre TE command …

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/hunter-henry-18983/

 

And when he was drafted, did you ever think he'd have 9 TDs in a season, leading all TEs?

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Doc

[QLBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

he had 9 TDS. Outside of that, not top 10.  
 

I didn’t say get rid of him. I asked what money would a mediocre TE command …

It’s beyond the stats. He brings explosive play to the position. It would be difficult to name the TE’s after the first 5 who are more dangerous. A reasonable contract will be arrived up that factors his upside and improvement imho ..

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/hunter-henry-18983/

 

And when he was drafted, did you ever think he'd have 9 TDs in a season, leading all TEs?

 

 
no but so what? 
 

3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

It’s beyond the stats. He brings explosive play to the position. It would be difficult to name the TE’s after the first 5 who are more dangerous. A reasonable contract will be arrived up that factors his upside and improvement imho ..

 
Whats dangerous

[TBBills]

I just like the way he runs over people when he has the ball. Also he gets those TDs.

[QLBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 
no but so what? 
 

 
Whats dangerous

What do you mean what is dangerous? He’s a dangerous TE that is athletic in space and tough to deal with for a D. 

[RaoulDuke79]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I don’t think Knox is a top 10 tight end

You might be right. I'm trying to rattle off my top 10 list, but I'm have frozen, a bit tipsy and still giddy over the Chiefs loss. Kelce, Andrews, Kittle are the first that come to mind, then it get murky.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Yes.

Speculation on a contract before a years worth of data is pointless. Beane may try to sign Knox now to a more team friendly deal, that contains performance incentives. 

[Doc]

11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 no but so what?

 

You made a big deal of it back then.

[Mr. WEO]

6 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

What do you mean what is dangerous? He’s a dangerous TE that is athletic in space and tough to deal with for a D. 

I’m sure their hometown fans think the same of Schultz, Gesicki, Eryz, Fant, Waller…

  
Nothing wrong with having those feelings.

 

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

You made a big deal of it back then.

you mean when he zero in college? , lol obviously

[Doc]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

you mean when he zero in college? , lol obviously

 

And obviously it mean little...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, QB Bills said:

I've been a big fan of his since his rookie year. Guy is super talented as a receiver, even with the odd drop. Would be a mistake to let him leave.

 

Mistakes are always relative.  If, as BadOlBilz believes, he’d be wanting something like a 4 year, $40M contract, is that a good deal or a mistake?  $10M per year would mean not signing or re-signing someone else - perhaps Diggs who will eventually want a new contract.

 

That’s a lot of money for 587 yds per season.

[Doc]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Mistakes are always relative.  If, as BadOlBilz believes, he’d be wanting something like a 4 year, $40M contract, is that a good deal?  $10M per year would mean not signing or re-signing someone else.  That’s a lot of money for <600 yds per season.

 

Yeah but that's the going rate now.  Take a look at the Hunter Henry deal and his production.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

Do you watch other TE’s?   Even Kittle, Kelce etc have drops.  Knox drastically improved that this year.  TE’s just aren’t as sure-handed all the time as WR’s.  
 

Diontae Johnson has games where he’s legitimately a liability.  Knox is nowhere close to that.  
 

Yes, keep Knox.  He’s a Top 10 TE, and is still improving. 

 

Er….in general TEs have a higher catch % than WR.  That’s the reason Knox is 28th in catch percentage amoung TE with a catch % of 69% that would be excellent for a WR.

 

the OP put out a bunch of comparisons to other TE.  The only measurable I could find by which he’s top 10 is TDs.  What are your measurables or metrics to argue he’s top-10?

[TheBrownBear]

I like Knox.  I think he'll make another leap next year and be a solid top-5 to top-10 TE.  I like Sweeney too as a second TE.  I think we are set at the position.

[Mr. WEO]

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

And obviously it mean little...

 
it elevates him into the  Freiermuth range.  Except he did it in his rookie year. With only 2 drops

[QLBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

I’m sure their hometown fans think the same of Schultz, Gesicki, Eryz, Fant, Waller…

  
Nothing wrong with having those feelings.

 

you mean when he zero in college? , lol obviously

Waller is in elite group Gki maybe Schultz solid but limited explosive plays, Fant potential but bit disappointing so far.. Ertz good but on back end.. so again firmly in top ten. My answer was to the original poster ? And I’ve answered that as stated. He’s exactly what Bills have lacked for many years and is viewed as up and coming current top 10 TE. 

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

 
it elevates him into the  Freiermuth range.  Except he did it in his rookie year. With only 2 drops

Fmuth is not as good as Knox and it’s not close