Dawson Knox - he improved greatly, but was it enough? 2022 is his contract year

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

I like Knox.  I think he'll make another leap next year and be a solid top-5 to top-10 TE. 

 

That could happen

 

2 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

I like Sweeney too as a second TE.  I think we are set at the position

 

What has Sweeney done to persuade you of this?

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Waller is in elite group Gki maybe Schultz solid but limited explosive plays, Fant potential but bit disappointing so far.. Ertz good but on back end.. so again firmly in top ten. My answer was to the original poster ? And I’ve answered that as stated. He’s exactly what Bills have lacked for many years and is viewed as up and coming current top 10 TE. 

Fmuth is not as good as Knox and it’s not close 

 
what is Knox’s explosive play % per snap?

[GoBills808]

19 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

You might be right. I'm trying to rattle off my top 10 list, but I'm have frozen, a bit tipsy and still giddy over the Chiefs loss. Kelce, Andrews, Kittle are the first that come to mind, then it get murky.

Pitts, Waller, Schultz, Goedert, Gronkowski, Ertz, Gisecki off top of head are better TEs

 

Knox is on the edge, borderline top10 guy there w the Hockensens and Fants of the world imo

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Er….in general TEs have a higher catch % than WR.  That’s the reason Knox is 28th in catch percentage amoung TE with a catch % of 69% that would be excellent for a WR.

 

the OP put out a bunch of comparisons to other TE.  The only measurable I could find by which he’s top 10 is TDs.  What are your measurables or metrics to argue he’s top-10?

He’s not just top 10 in TD’s, he’s tied for the league lead.  
 

Given the amount of mouths to feed on our offense, that seems - to me - to lessen his targets in the field of play, so the fact he’s a big end zone target for us is a big deal.  
 

Someone like Dallas Goedert is much more of a focal point.   And if we’re worried about drops, he had a brutal one in their playoff game. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 
what is Knox’s explosive play % per snap?

 

What the hell is an explosive play % per snap, and what is it for the rest of the league’s TE?

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What the hell is an explosive play % per snap, and what is it for the rest of the league’s TE?

good question. 
 

QL is about to tell us

[QLBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 
what is Knox’s explosive play % per snap?

Wow as previously stated it’s not all about the stats. I could care less. What part are you missing ? You mentioned te’s who are in the next group after the elite 4 or 5. He’s clearly in the next group.. ie top 10. Watch Schultz play who I like and runs and 4.8… then watch Knox. With a high TD total. If you don’t like him that’s fine. Any other objective fan be they Bills or other would slot him in the top 10. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I need to see more from Knox.

[QLBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

good question. 
 

QL is about to tell us

Man why are you so arrogant. You asked the ? answer it yourself I don’t care. 

[SCBills]

Normally I think we overrate a lot of our own guys.   With Knox, I finally think we’re underrating one.   

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:

Wow as previously stated it’s not all about the stats. I could care less. What part are you missing ? You mentioned te’s who are in the next group after the elite 4 or 5. He’s clearly in the next group.. ie top 10. Watch Schultz play who I like and runs and 4.8… then watch Knox. With a high TD total. If you don’t like him that’s fine. Any other objective fan be they Bills or other would slot him in the top 10. 

 

Objectively, unless you cherry pick your statistics and put on homer glasses, Knox appears to slot in about 13-15th among TE

[Malazan]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This was spurred by comments I made in the Gronk thread

 

Knox improved greatly this season, but did he improve enough?

 

When you look at his productivity per game, it's an improvement, but a smaller improvement than one might like to see

 

In 2020, he had 40.5 snaps per game. 

In 2021, he had 61.1 snaps per game (87% of offensive snaps)

That's a 51% increase in snaps per game.

 

In 2020, he had 2.2 receptions per game

In 2021, he had 3.3 receptions per game

That's a 50% increase in receptions per game

 

In 2020, he gained 24 yards per game

In 2021, he gained 39 yards per game

That's a 63% increase in yards per game

 

But the  bottom line - while 587 yds is much better productivity than 287 yds last year, his productivity in the passing game improved only slightly relative to the increased number of snaps he saw. 

 

I don't have a good sense as to how often he was used in the passing game (or open) relative to how much he was asked to block.

 

He improved in other ways, of course:

 

His catch % improved markedly, from 54.5% to 69%

So did his yards per target from 6.5 to 8.3

 

His drops stayed constant, 3, which means as a percentage of targets, they improved from 9.1% to 5.6%

Most critically - last year he had 2 fumbles.  This year he did not fumble.

 

I'm not Joe Expert, but to my perception his blocking showed a big improvement this season, as did his route running to the point where they actually were able to line him up as a receiver.  His physicality as a route runner improved markedly, as well.

 

How was he relative to other TE across the league?  I had to pull data from PFR and sort it myself to get this. 

 

Among TE, Knox was:

13th for Y/G with 39

14th for Y/Tgt with 8.3

15th for Y/R with 12

14th for 1D with 41

28th in Catch% (of TE with more than 25 targets) at 69%

Tied for 1st in TD with 9 (4 way tie)

 

So except in TDs, kind of middling

 

Obviously Knox has developed into a competent NFL TE who shows flashes of better.  And some of the above comparison is unfair, as it lumps him in with TE who are primarily WR while Knox is asked to block quite a bit.

 

This is Knox's contract year, and while I think he's worth the $2.7M he'll count against the cap in 2022, does his production merit a big payday?  Being the #12-18 TE would slot him in currently for an AAV around $6.5-8M AAV, or a contract between $16M and $29M

 

IMHO, this is reason to draft a young TE in what is supposed to be a deep TE draft class, because while Knox has improved, it seems to me that he has not yet become that Star TE we were hoping to draft and develop.  He has not become Allen's Kelce or Kittle or Andrews, or even Goeddert or Waller.  He is a good young TE, though.

 

Thoughts?

 

Long story, short, not enough to get a new deal this offseason. Maybe next offseason. 

 

I think skill positions only get big paydays when they're top 15 guys. Otherwise, the contract has to make a lot of sense. You should have guys in the pipeline that can replace at least some of their production allowing to maybe sign a more reasonably priced upgrade at another position. 

 

I also stand by my "You have to succeed for as many years as you failed". Let's see what another offseason of him being focused does..

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Wow as previously stated it’s not all about the stats. I could care less. What part are you missing ? You mentioned te’s who are in the next group after the elite 4 or 5. He’s clearly in the next group.. ie top 10. Watch Schultz play who I like and runs and 4.8… then watch Knox. With a high TD total. If you don’t like him that’s fine. Any other objective fan be they Bills or other would slot him in the top 10. 

Ok, it’s  not all about the stats.

 

what’s 4.8?

 

1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:

Man why are you so arrogant. You asked the ? answer it yourself I don’t care. 

You repeatedly mentioned explosiveness and compared Knox’s to several others.  I assumed you had some metric in mind to explain your conclusion.  Simple

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Pitts, Waller, Schultz, Goedert, Gronkowski, Ertz, Gisecki off top of head are better TEs

 

Knox is on the edge, borderline top10 guy there w the Hockensens and Fants of the world imo

 

Ertz is not really a tight end. He is a big slot. He plays in the slot nearly two thirds of his snaps and that is consistent over the last 5 years. And he couldn't block his dinner. He'd have been an interesting case if he had ever got the franchise tag stage thinking back to the Jimmy Graham situation in New Orleans a few years back.  Gesicki the same. He played fewer than 100 snaps as an inline tight end this year. He is a big slot. They are good big receivers. I don't really consider them tight ends. They only do half of the job. 

 

Agree with the other guys on your list and all of those are guys who play at least half their time as an inline tight end. 

 

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 it elevates him into the  Freiermuth range.  Except he did it in his rookie year. With only 2 drops

 

Good thing then that the Bills didn't waste taking him a round and a half earlier than they took Knox.  And this past season, Knox's production has been as good, if not better, than any TE drafted since 2019, outside of Pitts, who went 8th overall.

[QLBillsFan]

10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Ok, it’s  not all about the stats.

 

what’s 4.8?

 

You repeatedly mentioned explosiveness and compared Knox’s to several others.  I assumed you had some metric in mind to explain your conclusion.  Simple

 

 

The guy runs a 4.8 so he’s slow. Again. you chose to fall back only on stats. Others actually watch the guys play. Your the metrics guy. Simple is your inability that others may not follow your metrics as facts. 

 

I will take a combination of the data and watching the game and impact a player has. I don’t need your 100% metrics to establish an opinion. Again I’m answering the ? in the thread. Simple.. 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2022 by QLBillsFan

[Mr. WEO]

7 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Good thing then that the Bills didn't waste taking him a round and a half earlier than they took Knox.  And this past season, Knox's production has been as good, if not better, than any TE drafted since 2019, outside of Pitts, who went 8th overall.

Freiermuth was 2nd round, Knox 3rd.  Teams pick in each round where they pick.

 

And yes, I’m sure the Steelers are to this day bemoaning the fact that they “wasted” a 2nd round pick on a roomie TE who caught 60 passes 7 for TDS and 36 1st downs 500 yards against 2 drops

 

good point!

 

[ArtVandalay]

1 hour ago, QLBillsFan said:

Yes would like to clean up the drops. Knox without a doubt a top 10 TE who is very explosive. Let’s get rid of him 😳🙄.. he made huge strides this year. And has excellent chemistry with JA. Well well above  mediocre. 

I don't think people want to get rid of him, but rather they don't want to pay him big money.... he's never had 50 catches or 600 yards you can't pay big money for that especially when he's been on a high powered offense. 

 

He has gotten better each year so maybe he really breaks out next year.  But as it stands now he's not worth large money he'll command.

 

He might be fit for a transition tag though since the question is the money. 

[78thealltimegreat]

Desperately need a second te as Sweeney is pretty much just a blocker luckily draft and free agency are loaded with a plethora of options this year 

[QLBillsFan]

1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Desperately need a second te as Sweeney is pretty much just a blocker luckily draft and free agency are loaded with a plethora of options this year 

That’s something we can all agree on 

4 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

I don't think people want to get rid of him, but rather they don't want to pay him big money.... he's never had 50 catches or 600 yards you can't pay big money for that especially when he's been on a high powered offense. 

 

He has gotten better each year so maybe he really breaks out next year.  But as it stands now he's not worth large money he'll command.

 

He might be fit for a transition tag though since the question is the money. 

I’ve never debated about his contract. He’s valuable to this team and in particular the QB. So as I’ve stated let’s provide a fair contract for both parties. I’m assuming he’s open to that. With his upside and JA it will be good for this team. Seems logical.