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"If Allen Plays Like Crap This Week, Accept that He's Simply Not Good


FilthyBeast
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For the reading and discussing pleasure of those who wish to hypothesize that 2 or 3 games outweigh a full season as a sample set, Congratulations!  You have won your very own thread using the "magic" of the moderator "Split" function

 

For the reading and discussing pleasure of those who wish to discuss the upcoming game, let's try to keep the Week 3 WFT thread at least loosely on topic

 

Enjoy!

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Did some digging and in 2019, Josh was playing slightly better through his first two games than this year...

 

First two games 2019  Jets/Giants - 43/67   64%    507yrds     2 Pass Tds     2 Rush Tds       2 Int      2 Fum 

 

First two games 2021   Steelers/Dolphins- 47/84   56%    449yrds    3 Pass Tds     0 Rush Tds       1 Int      2 Fum

 

Small subset but for those looking for a visual comparison

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On 9/20/2021 at 10:13 AM, FilthyBeast said:

 

Agree, if Allen plays like crap again this week there are no more excuses. It will be time to accept that he's simply not good and behind closed doors in Orchard Park there will be serious buyers remorse knowing that he had a fluke year during the weird fanless covid year.

 

Washington has a good dline and but has struggled mightily overall and is lucky to be 1-1 right now. And even if they were a top defense Allen played extremely well against many top 10 defenses last year and has to show that again given his contract. Really hope he can turn it around and come out firing.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

Wow.

 

This certainly helps to dispel the “receivers are being blanketed” narrative that some have adopted. That’s a sure TD Josh missed.

 

The right play there is pump fake to McKenzie and cash in the TD to Sanders. 

 

Here's what I don't get, the need to look at a bad play or a bad game and define Allen's future by it. 

 

I don't want the Bills to lose many more games this year, but regression to start the season is neither determinative of the future nor necessarily a bad thing. Regression can be the motivating factor to grow beyond where a player was before. 

 

This whole "you are what you are" fallacy is some crap that Dennis Green screamed about after blowing a game badly.

 

You are what you do, and what you do in the future is not defined by the past.

 

 

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6 hours ago, ngbills said:

So your saying if our OL does not get better we are in for a long disappointing season? 

 

I would rather believe JA is going to figure this out. The OL is mostly what it is but may play slightly better. But JA will be the catalyst to get this offense right. 


I don’t disagree with that, I was more objecting to the amount of blame you’ve previously put on just Josh.  End of the day, he’s been under constant duress and pressure both games against 2 stout defenses on a consistent basis.  
 

It’s literally the worst I’ve seen this group play in terms of pass protection and disciplined play.  
 

Im not worried at all about Josh, but I am concerned about our OL right now.  Come playoffs, defense plays a big role and if our OL is hot garbage it’s going to put a lot of pressure on Allen and our own defense if we can’t sustain drives due to dumb penalties or blown up pass protection.  
 

Josh has a tendency to press too much and try and put the team on his back when that’s going on, and that’s not when Josh is most effective.  OL is gonna have to get their s**t together so our offense can find their groove and rhythm.  

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1 hour ago, TwistofFate said:

I was spoiled last year and this year has me questioning my position.  I'm not throwing in the towel yet, I need at least half a season of mediocre play to justify a fluke season last year, but I pray he doesn't revert to historic numbers.

 

 

That pretty much sums it up for me too. I'd be lying if I said I'm not concerned. For me what's the most concerning is his poor footwork and mechanics, inaccuracy, lack of vision, and jitterness in the pocket. His sprinkling in a few good throws doesn't overshadow the negatives listed above. Please Allen be 75% of what you were last year.

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:


I don’t disagree with that, I was more objecting to the amount of blame you’ve previously put on just Josh.  End of the day, he’s been under constant duress and pressure both games against 2 stout defenses on a consistent basis.  
 

It’s literally the worst I’ve seen this group play in terms of pass protection and disciplined play.  
 

Im not worried at all about Josh, but I am concerned about our OL right now.  Come playoffs, defense plays a big role and if our OL is hot garbage it’s going to put a lot of pressure on Allen and our own defense if we can’t sustain drives due to dumb penalties or blown up pass protection.  
 

Josh has a tendency to press too much and try and put the team on his back when that’s going on, and that’s not when Josh is most effective.  OL is gonna have to get their s**t together so our offense can find their groove and rhythm.  

 

It is interesting.

 

The first game Daboll has Allen pissing into the wind by using mostly empty sets and basically telling Pittsburgh "we know you are only rushing four and have everyone else in coverage, but we are going to try to pass into that double and triple coverage any ways while your dline has the luxury of pinning their ears back rushing Allen because they don't have to worry about gap responsibility and stopping runs.

 

The result was predictably horrible.

 

TBD was awash with cries for Daboll's and Allen's  head on a pike. "Why don't they run more, why doesn't Allen check down and take what defenses are giving??

 

So they go into Miami and feature far more 11 personnel and even some 21 personnel with our fullback getting some touches. 

 

We ran the ball, Allen took what the defense was giving and threw it away often when nothing was there. We hung over 30 points on the fins and yet out come a lot of the same posters with the whole Josh is regressing thing.

 

Now in a clean pocket with time to step into a throw if Allen misses that is on him and there have been some of those. But more often than not there has been a jailbreak somewhere after each snap that has Allen pulling down the ball and having to throw on the run off platform or reset and miss route windows.

 

The o-line as a unit needs to be committed to keeping Allen more clean and we need to stay committed to running the ball to tap the brakes on opponent pass rushers and test those lighter boxes.

 

It is all about winning, there are no style points.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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He is missing throws.

 

The clip above shows him throwing off the back foot again. He bails out on the throw, turns his shoulder like he’s about to get hit.

Protection isn’t great on the play, but like Warner pointed out in the Pittsburgh film, he’s not seeing open players right now. 

 

 

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Wow! Bills are 1-1 and just came off a dominating 35-0 win of the Dolphins and you guys have THIS going on. Lmao Allen will be fine, he is probably just getting the rust off since he didn’t play much in the preseason.  But damn I thought my fan base had a bunch of contrarians, Buffalo has us beat on that too.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Wow! Bills are 1-1 and just came off a dominating 35-0 win of the Dolphins and you guys have THIS going on. Lmao Allen will be fine, he is probably just getting the rust off since he didn’t play much in the preseason.  But damn I thought my fan base had a bunch of contrarians, Buffalo has us beat on that too.

 

No.  Your fan base is a bunch of Nancy's.   Entitled pricks.   You think your ***** doesn't stink?

 

The last thing you should ever say about the Bills fan base is anything other than how impressive our football knowledge is and how much we love our team.

 

Your team sucks now.    And there is little happening in the NFL that pleases me more than to see that and get to say it to one of you Patriot fan dill holes.

 

Enjoy another losing season.   There's always next year.  lol

 

 

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8 hours ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said:

Did some digging and in 2019, Josh was playing slightly better through his first two games than this year...

 

First two games 2019  Jets/Giants - 43/67   64%    507yrds     2 Pass Tds     2 Rush Tds       2 Int      2 Fum 

 

First two games 2021   Steelers/Dolphins- 47/84   56%    449yrds    3 Pass Tds     0 Rush Tds       1 Int      2 Fum

 

Small subset but for those looking for a visual comparison

This is misleading. First, Pittsburgh & Miami will very likely have much better records then the Jets & Giants did in 2019. And for sure the Dolphins/Steeler's both have much better defenses.

 

When listing fumbles you should only list fumbles lost.  After two games Allen has lost only one fumble compared to his losing two fumbles in the first two games of 2019.  So through two games in 2021 Allen has one turnover.  Through the first two games in 2019 Allen had four turnovers.

 

While the stat board shows that Allen doesn't have a rush TD this season we all know that if the game was close he easily scores a TD on that last run against Miami.  It was smart of him to go down after he got the 1st down rather then taking a nasty hit as he crossed the goal line.

 

 

 

 

11 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

I think the timing of Josh’s mediocrity plays a big factor here. Poor games randomly placed in season surrounded by MVP type performances?  Just a bad day at the office. Two poor games to begin the season?  Alarm bells sound immediately. 

Why is that? I posted stats showing how terrible Jim Kelly was through the first THREE games of the 1988 season.  If anything having mediocre early season games is better then going into a slump in the 2nd half of the season.  Remember how Russel Wilson was everyone's MVP after he got off to a torrid start last yaer?  How did it end up for Wilson?

 

 

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9 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Wow.

 

This certainly helps to dispel the “receivers are being blanketed” narrative that some have adopted. That’s a sure TD Josh missed.

Do you watch football much?  Every week the best QB's miss seeing wide open receivers. Looking at every Allen pass then taking the ones he looks bad at to make a point is the very definition of cherry picking. And just because Allen missed seeing a wide open WR on THIS play doesn't negate the fact that the receivers do not seem to be consistently getting separation.

 

So I'll do some cherry picking to.  Allen's TD pass to Diggs in the 1st quarter was spectacular.  Only a couple of QB's could make that throw.  And I still don't know how he saw Diggs open in the first place.  That was huge for early game momentum as it was a 3rd down and the Bills have to settle for a FG if he doesn't make that throw.  14 -0 is a lot better then 10 -0.

 

The replay you're pointing to, where Allen didn't see a wide open receiver, was just a lost down & missed opportunity.  The Bills still want on and scored a TD that drive.  So my cherry picked throw had a much bigger impact on the game then the one you site.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

Everyone panicking after josh starts the year against two of the most elite secondaries in the NFL with his o line playing like jv high schoolers. Meanwhile lamar throws 3 picks, overthrows receivers all night but beats the chiefs and he's back to mvp talk 😆 

And don't forget that in the loss to the Raiders Jackson lost a fumble in the 4th quarter and another in OT which directly resulted in the Ravens loss.  Yet we don't here long lectures of "ball security" when Lamar is being talked about.

 

 

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10 hours ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

Everyone panicking after josh starts the year against two of the most elite secondaries in the NFL with his o line playing like jv high schoolers. Meanwhile lamar throws 3 picks, overthrows receivers all night but beats the chiefs and he's back to mvp talk 😆 

Yup, Some folk just never get past the select points that they base their assumptions on. 
 

Go Bills!!!
 

 

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4 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

He is missing throws.

 

The clip above shows him throwing off the back foot again. He bails out on the throw, turns his shoulder like he’s about to get hit.

Protection isn’t great on the play, but like Warner pointed out in the Pittsburgh film, he’s not seeing open players right now. 

 

 


Again, because he’s been under constant duress and pressure he hasn’t been able to get comfortable and in a Rhythm.  Why some of you keep blatantly ignoring this is beyond me.  And he’s also delivered some incredible throws and plays none of you are mentioning.  

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30 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:


Again, because he’s been under constant duress and pressure he hasn’t been able to get comfortable and in a Rhythm.  Why some of you keep blatantly ignoring this is beyond me.  And he’s also delivered some incredible throws and plays none of you are mentioning.  

Literally just listened to Sal Capaccio say the line played well in Miami, he was only sacked once, and he had time to throw on film. 

 

He missed throws all over the field. 

 

You know what's beyond me? Bills fans acting like its a crime to say that Allen isn't playing well. 

 

You know what's beyond me? That Diggs is getting 4 yards of separation per attempted throw, Beasley 6 yards per attempted throw, Sanders over 4 yards per throw (Brown was 3 yards last year) and Allen is not hitting them. 

 

Sorry, I know your schtick is blame everyone else, and act aghast, but Allen is not making throws. 

 

The mantra after the Steelers game was, well the Bills will never see a defense like that again. Then Miami comes along and the narrative shifts to well they have an amazing secondary. 

 

He's not playing well. His PFF rating right now is 62.3. Average in the league is 72.4. He's missing throws. 

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5 hours ago, PolishDave said:

 

No.  Your fan base is a bunch of Nancy's.   Entitled pricks.   You think your ***** doesn't stink?

 

The last thing you should ever say about the Bills fan base is anything other than how impressive our football knowledge is and how much we love our team.

 

Your team sucks now.    And there is little happening in the NFL that pleases me more than to see that and get to say it to one of you Patriot fan dill holes.

 

Enjoy another losing season.   There's always next year.  lol

 

 

I wish I could put in the Meme of the Emperor saying “Yes, let the Hate flow threw you” .  Lol

 

Dude it’s a sport that makes us all forget about our lives for a few hours on Sunday while we cheer our favorite team on. After that we all have to go back to out regularly scheduled lives and work. Mind you I find myself enjoying my sons Pop Warner games and Nephews HS games more than the pros.. probably because it’s fun seeing people you know doing something they love. 

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1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Literally just listened to Sal Capaccio say the line played well in Miami, he was only sacked once, and he had time to throw on film. 

 

He missed throws all over the field. 

 

You know what's beyond me? Bills fans acting like its a crime to say that Allen isn't playing well. 

 

You know what's beyond me? That Diggs is getting 4 yards of separation per attempted throw, Beasley 6 yards per attempted throw, Sanders over 4 yards per throw (Brown was 3 yards last year) and Allen is not hitting them. 

 

Sorry, I know your schtick is blame everyone else, and act aghast, but Allen is not making throws. 

 

The mantra after the Steelers game was, well the Bills will never see a defense like that again. Then Miami comes along and the narrative shifts to well they have an amazing secondary. 

 

He's not playing well. His PFF rating right now is 62.3. Average in the league is 72.4. He's missing throws. 


So instead of watching the game to form your own opinion you took your analysis from what someone else said on the radio, who are also not known for their astute analysis.  Got it.  I watched the full game twice, and your post above is not in tune with the reality of what I saw during the game.  
 

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1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Literally just listened to Sal Capaccio say the line played well in Miami, he was only sacked once, and he had time to throw on film. 

 

He missed throws all over the field. 

 

You know what's beyond me? Bills fans acting like its a crime to say that Allen isn't playing well. 

 

You know what's beyond me? That Diggs is getting 4 yards of separation per attempted throw, Beasley 6 yards per attempted throw, Sanders over 4 yards per throw (Brown was 3 yards last year) and Allen is not hitting them. 

 

Sorry, I know your schtick is blame everyone else, and act aghast, but Allen is not making throws. 

 

The mantra after the Steelers game was, well the Bills will never see a defense like that again. Then Miami comes along and the narrative shifts to well they have an amazing secondary. 

 

He's not playing well. His PFF rating right now is 62.3. Average in the league is 72.4. He's missing throws. 

 

Re: the bolded - it's totally fine to say he isn't playing well right now.

 

Comments on this thread and others - and this thread title - go WAY beyond that.  

 

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11 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

I wish I could put in the Meme of the Emperor saying “Yes, let the Hate flow threw you” .  Lol

 

Dude it’s a sport that makes us all forget about our lives for a few hours on Sunday while we cheer our favorite team on. After that we all have to go back to out regularly scheduled lives and work. Mind you I find myself enjoying my sons Pop Warner games and Nephews HS games more than the pros.. probably because it’s fun seeing people you know doing something they love. 

 

Patriot fan walks into a crowd of Bills fans and makes a crack about Bills fans.

 

Unless he is a complete idiot, I think the guy would probably expect to get some flak for it.      Common sense, no? :thumbsup:

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I'll tell you one thing, Schopp on WGR is starting to feel it a little bit, dipping his toe into the "Allen was a mistake" water again. 

 

Last year he had to eat crow and go along Allen being an MVP type QB, and you could tell it was killing him, especially once we beat his beloved Lamar in the playoffs. His heart was never really in it. 

 

Now he seems more alive, more happy every afternoon. He's even getting back to having his analytics guys on to talk about how "this is who Allen is" every other show. 

 

If this goes on another 1-2 games he's going to come right out with it. But for now he's treading lightly, and it's hilarious to listen to on my long commute every evening. 

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15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:


So instead of watching the game to form your own opinion you took your analysis from what someone else said on the radio, who are also not known for their astute analysis.  Got it.  I watched the full game twice, and your post above is not in tune with the reality of what I saw during the game.  
 

Allen's decision making has improved significantly.  If he doesn't feel comfortable making it, he is now throwing it away and making the throw the next down.

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13 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Wow.

 

This certainly helps to dispel the “receivers are being blanketed” narrative that some have adopted. That’s a sure TD Josh missed.


more than one thing can be true.  Josh  missed 3-4 throws where a receiver was open and he had time in the Miami game and a couple in the Pittsburgh game.

 

And no that wasn’t a “sure TD”, though it would have been a contest

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44 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

I'll tell you one thing, Schopp on WGR is starting to feel it a little bit, dipping his toe into the "Allen was a mistake" water again. 

 

Last year he had to eat crow and go along Allen being an MVP type QB, and you could tell it was killing him, especially once we beat his beloved Lamar in the playoffs. His heart was never really in it. 

 

Now he seems more alive, more happy every afternoon. He's even getting back to having his analytics guys on to talk about how "this is who Allen is" every other show. 

 

If this goes on another 1-2 games he's going to come right out with it. But for now he's treading lightly, and it's hilarious to listen to on my long commute every evening. 

You absolutely nailed it on this post. 

 

Without Bulldog, and Sneaky Joe in, yesterday's show nosedived right off the bat into a talk about Fantasy Football trade etiquette, with a betting-line story not far behind. 

 

And you're 100% right about the love-fest with Lamar Jackson. 

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7 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

He is missing throws.

 

The clip above shows him throwing off the back foot again. He bails out on the throw, turns his shoulder like he’s about to get hit.

Protection isn’t great on the play, but like Warner pointed out in the Pittsburgh film, he’s not seeing open players right now. 

 

 

Not allowed. Josh is always perfect. You can say he is a legit MVP candidate, could lead the team to a super bowl victory, but point out some bad plays and your a hater who is clueless because it is the OL's fault Josh is throwing off his back foot or his hips arent following through. Obviously right. 

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:


So instead of watching the game to form your own opinion you took your analysis from what someone else said on the radio, who are also not known for their astute analysis.  Got it.  I watched the full game twice, and your post above is not in tune with the reality of what I saw during the game.  
 

I watched the entire game and Allen was not impressive. 

 

Allen made the play at the goal line, made the Knox throw. 

 

The best drive was the first drive of the 3rd Quarter. Two quick throws to Diggs and Beasley. 

 

But, balls were fluttering, balls were late, balls were low. 

 

The fact that All-22's are coming out and saying this, not a surprise. The fact that PFF has him graded at 62.3 is not a surprise. The numbers are all down this year. 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, ngbills said:

Not allowed. Josh is always perfect. You can say he is a legit MVP candidate, could lead the team to a super bowl victory, but point out some bad plays and your a hater who is clueless because it is the OL's fault Josh is throwing off his back foot or his hips arent following through. Obviously right. 

You're right. 

 

This is WGR about the run game. 

 

Jeremy can use his worn golf-analogies every show, but you're not allowed to say that a run game could help the team. 

 

Not allowed, unless your Adam Benigni, Paul Hamilton, Sal Cappacio, Doug Farrar then we'll let you talk because you're a guest on the show.   

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2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:


Again, because he’s been under constant duress and pressure he hasn’t been able to get comfortable and in a Rhythm.  Why some of you keep blatantly ignoring this is beyond me.  And he’s also delivered some incredible throws and plays none of you are mentioning.  

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:


So instead of watching the game to form your own opinion you took your analysis from what someone else said on the radio, who are also not known for their astute analysis.  Got it.  I watched the full game twice, and your post above is not in tune with the reality of what I saw during the game.  
 

Josh has said himself he is not playing well. Can we stop with the "he is fine" its all on the OL? The OL has played ok not great. Allen is playing well below is expectations, more than the OL. You talk about watching the game. Go watch every throw. He is missing more than he should. I expect within a few weeks he will have this figured out and then you can watch the film for those games compare to the last two and it will be night and day with the same OL play. Its ok to admit he is off. It happens. 

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:


So instead of watching the game to form your own opinion you took your analysis from what someone else said on the radio, who are also not known for their astute analysis.  Got it.  I watched the full game twice, and your post above is not in tune with the reality of what I saw during the game.  
 

By the way, my post referenced stats from NFL Next Gen.

 

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1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I watched the entire game and Allen was not impressive. 

 

Allen made the play at the goal line, made the Knox throw. 

 

The best drive was the first drive of the 3rd Quarter. Two quick throws to Diggs and Beasley. 

 

But, balls were fluttering, balls were late, balls were low. 

 

The fact that All-22's are coming out and saying this, not a surprise. The fact that PFF has him graded at 62.3 is not a surprise. The numbers are all down this year. 

 

 

 

I think what most of the folks are objecting to is the conclusion that Allen is a bust as a result of these two games, or even a third straight game.  There are many reasons the kid can have a couple of games like this and many of those reasons were captured in this thread.  There are more reasons than those captured in this thread that can be impacting his play.  We also don't know what we don't know.

Just now, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

You lost me at PFF...

Stats don't provide the entire story either

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3 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

You lost me at PFF...

Well, they watch every snap and grade every player, in every single game. 

 

So, its one measure. 

 

For instance, Herbert only has 2 TDs and 3 Interceptions on the year. On the surface Allen has better production. But you've watched Herbert laser footballs this season out of the pocket. Hence the grade is higher. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

I think what most of the folks are objecting to is the conclusion that Allen is a bust as a result of these two games, or even a third straight game.  There are many reasons the kid can have a couple of games like this and many of those reasons were captured in this thread.  There are more reasons than those captured in this thread that can be impacting his play.  We also don't know what we don't know.

Stats don't provide the entire story either

I am reading less about Allen is a bust and more Allen does not need to change a thing, its all on the OL. Allen is still the MVP front runner in my opinion, but he needs to fix his issues asap. Watch the film and do whatever he needs to do to get those feet right. Daboll needs to get some quick slants to force the issue a bit. 

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1 hour ago, PolishDave said:

 

Patriot fan walks into a crowd of Bills fans and makes a crack about Bills fans.

 

Unless he is a complete idiot, I think the guy would probably expect to get some flak for it.      Common sense, no? :thumbsup:

I wasn’t talking about all Bills fans.. only the ones promoting this crap about Allen.  We had the “we should have kept Bledsoe” crowd in 2002 when the Pats failed make the playoffs.. they were equally as dumb. 

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