Who is the one player you DON’T want the Bills to draft @30

[BADOLBILZ]

 

As someone who has spent a lot of time evaluating college players leading up to drafts for 30 years now..............my advice is prepare for the worst.

 

I stopped investing in the Bills decisions on draft day when Donahoe selected Willis McGahee..........that was the last straw of idiotic, direction-less decisions.........I no longer hang on who the Bills gotta' select..........I try to never assume that the Bills see things like I do.......and when they do(which has been the case a lot lately) then I am pleasantly surprised.

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

8 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Not even sure what these made up numbers are trying to prove, but Etienne is 10x times better than any RB on the roster. 

 

Not to mention, Singletary and Moss are some of the worst pass catching RBs in the league.  Etienne would walk in that room tomorrow and put on a school on pass catching from an RB, something this team desperately needs.

 

Give me numbers back, since mine are based on kamara.  Kamara averages 8.7 yards per reception career, and Singletary is 6.9.  Thats 1.8 yards per catch different.  Across 100 catches, thats 180 yards.  His catch% is about 5-6 points higher so we'll say he gets 5 more catches at the same average and thats like 45.  So 225 yards.  Kamara's career YPC is 5, and Singletary's is 4.8.  200 carries and .2 yards additional per carry is 40 yards.  

 

That is 265 yards.  

 

Kamara had 16 rushing TDs - and NO led the league in rushing TDs.  But they had 30 rushing TDs as a unit vs. buffalo who had 16.  Buffalo had 40 TDs to NO's 28 passing though, and generally a considerably more dynamic passing offense.  If Etienne has more of a red zone impact (an area buffalo wasn't top 10 on offense), then it makes a lot of sense.  But if I'm having Etienne running into the same walls in the RZ as our current crop of backs, then I'm not super excited about him providing as big an impact.

[Back2Buff]

1 minute ago, dneveu said:

 

Give me numbers back, since mine are based on kamara.  Kamara averages 8.7 yards per reception career, and Singletary is 6.9.  Thats 1.8 yards per catch different.  Across 100 catches, thats 180 yards.  His catch% is about 5-6 points higher so we'll say he gets 5 more catches at the same average and thats like 45.  So 225 yards.  Kamara's career YPC is 5, and Singletary's is 4.8.  200 carries and .2 yards additional per carry is 40 yards.  

 

That is 265 yards.  

 

Kamara had 16 rushing TDs - and NO led the league in rushing TDs.  But they had 30 rushing TDs as a unit vs. buffalo who had 16.  Buffalo had 40 TDs to NO's 28 passing though, and generally a considerably more dynamic passing offense.  If Etienne has more of a red zone impact (an area buffalo wasn't top 10 on offense), then it makes a lot of sense.  But if I'm having Etienne running into the same walls in the RZ as our current crop of backs, then I'm not super excited about him providing as big an impact.

 

Watch the games.  Singletary is embarrassing trying to catch and run.

 

If you think Etienne will have the same running plays called as guys that run high 4.6s, then you need to seriously watch more football in general.  The problem with our run game is that Singletary and Moss are too slow.  It's too hard to run to the edges with them.

[TheFunPolice]

nobody skinny... I want to see a mountain of a man come to the stage to don the jersey of America's team

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

31 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

nobody skinny... I want to see a mountain of a man come to the stage to don the jersey of America's team

 

 

Bobby Brown III

 

 

[somnus00]

On 4/5/2021 at 10:09 AM, hjnick said:

No RB, Punter, Kicker, QB, or Safety.

 

I’d be ok with LB, OT, G, WR, DT.

 

Want: CB, DE if we pick.

 

Really want: Trade down 

Get out of my head. These are my exact thoughts on the first pick.

[Buffalo03]

On 4/5/2021 at 12:40 PM, Frat-Train said:

John McCargo...

I especially hope we don't trade up for him. That would be really stupid

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Watt is a LB, not a DE.  Same with Landry

 

Alton Robinson Pick 148 2020, 4 sacks

Chase Winovich Pick 77 2019, 11 sacks

Maxx Crosby Pick 106 2019, 17 sacks

Sam Hubbard Pick 77 2018, 16.5 sacks

Josh Sweat Pick 130 2018, 10 sacks

Dawauane Smoot, Pick 68 2017, 11.5 sacks

Deatrich Wise, Pick 131 2017, 14 sacks

Carl Nassib, Pick 65 2016, 20.5 sacks

Yannick Ngakoue Pick 69 2016, 45.5 sacks

Matt Judon Pick 146 2016, 34.5 sacks

 

They are edge rushers not linebackers.

[Back2Buff]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are edge rushers not linebackers.

 

They are classified as LB.  Being a 3-4 OLB is not the same as a 4-3 DE.  You couldn't draft a 3-4 OLB and expect him to put up the same numbers as a 4-3 DE.  The 4-3 DE has a lot less room to operate than a 3-4 OLB, mainly because the 3-4 DEs are much bigger and take on more blockers.

[BillsFan1988]

On 4/5/2021 at 8:17 PM, GunnerBill said:

I mean there are absolutely loads. Either of the Moores would not be greeted with joy in my little corner of East London. Ifeatu Melifonwu I would punch a wall at too (and I have seen him mocked to us in a couple of places). Ojulari, Basham, Freiermuth, Tevin Jenkins.... none of those would leave me jumping for joy either. Zaven Collins even though I really like the player I do have a major scheme question mark against and so would be lukewarm on him as well. 

Prepare to be letdown then. To be honest this is not one of my favorite drafts. 

[TailgateChef]

7 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Watt is a LB, not a DE.  Same with Landry

 

Alton Robinson Pick 148 2020, 4 sacks

Chase Winovich Pick 77 2019, 11 sacks

Maxx Crosby Pick 106 2019, 17 sacks

Sam Hubbard Pick 77 2018, 16.5 sacks

Josh Sweat Pick 130 2018, 10 sacks

Dawauane Smoot, Pick 68 2017, 11.5 sacks

Deatrich Wise, Pick 131 2017, 14 sacks

Carl Nassib, Pick 65 2016, 20.5 sacks

Yannick Ngakoue Pick 69 2016, 45.5 sacks

Matt Judon Pick 146 2016, 34.5 sacks

"Edge rushers taken around 30 in the past 5 drafts:"

They're Edge rushers who play OLB in a 3-4.  In our defense, they would be D Ends.  Just like Azeez Ojulari, Joseph Ossai, and Joe Tryon in the upcoming draft.  If we draft any of those three (entirely possible), I don't think we intend to use them as back ups to Edmunds or Milano.

 

I see some production here.  To get an Ngakoue or Judon later in the draft, our scouting department would need to absolutely nail it.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, BillsFan1988 said:

Prepare to be letdown then. To be honest this is not one of my favorite drafts. 

 

It is not one of my favourite drafts either. 

6 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

They are classified as LB.  Being a 3-4 OLB is not the same as a 4-3 DE.  You couldn't draft a 3-4 OLB and expect him to put up the same numbers as a 4-3 DE.  The 4-3 DE has a lot less room to operate than a 3-4 OLB, mainly because the 3-4 DEs are much bigger and take on more blockers.

 

I agree that they are not exactly the same but a 3-4 edge rusher is much closer to a 4-3 edge rusher than they are to an off the ball linebacker in either system.

[26TrapDraw]

On 4/5/2021 at 9:40 AM, Frat-Train said:

John McCargo...

Erik Flowers says hi.

[Devilmann]

I want a CB or DE. I just hope a good one falls to us. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Watch the games.  Singletary is embarrassing trying to catch and run.

 

If you think Etienne will have the same running plays called as guys that run high 4.6s, then you need to seriously watch more football in general.  The problem with our run game is that Singletary and Moss are too slow.  It's too hard to run to the edges with them.

 

I put numbers to explain and compared the best pass catching back in the NFL to compare.

 

Are you saying Etienne will have a greater yards per carry, yards per catch, and catch % than Kamara? Despite buffalo having no pro bowl linemen on the roster. 

[BillsFan1988]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is not one of my favourite drafts either. 

 

I agree that they are not exactly the same but a 3-4 edge rusher is much closer to a 4-3 edge rusher than they are to an off the ball linebacker in either system.

I hope they go a pure BPA no matter the position other then QB or 3T DT . Everyone talks about positional needs like G/DE/CB but what I really think we need are more difference makers . I prefer the difference makers to be a DE or CB but @30 unless something drastic happens and a player falls to us like Ojulari, Paye or Farley at CB then I don't believe the next Teir of players are worth a late first . CBs like Samuels, Stokes, Melifonwu and Newsome are all 2nd rd pks same for the DEs like Tryon, Phillips (injury concerns) or Rousseau. I don't think it's worth reaching for anyone of these guys it's better if we can trade back and load up on picks. 

 

Now if there's no trade I say take skill position players like ETN, Najee or Williams and then move back up into the  high 50s for Rondale Moore . Imagine adding ETN & Rondale Moore to this offense all of a sudden we are one of the fastest elite offenses in the NFL.  We go from averaging 31 last yr to 37 this yr. I know many TBD members might not like this but think about it we need to add more speed to this offense we can't expect to roll out basically the same guys as last yr and think we'll automatically net the same results teams will study what we did last yr and be more prepared for us this season.  I'm thinking we use a pk next yr and 1 of our 5ths to move up for Rondale and the rest of the draft we can go Defense & Offensive line. 

 

If we take this type of approach we can add a vet Corner and DE after the draft maybe we can get Sherman and Clowney and we can sign a back up Safety like Malik Hooker for cheap. I think with these types of moves we can challenge for a SUPERBOWL title this yr. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, BillsFan1988 said:

I hope they go a pure BPA no matter the position other then QB or 3T DT . Everyone talks about positional needs like G/DE/CB but what I really think we need are more difference makers . I prefer the difference makers to be a DE or CB but @30 unless something drastic happens and a player falls to us like Ojulari, Paye or Farley at CB then I don't believe the next Teir of players are worth a late first . CBs like Samuels, Stokes, Melifonwu and Newsome are all 2nd rd pks same for the DEs like Tryon, Phillips (injury concerns) or Rousseau. I don't think it's worth reaching for anyone of these guys it's better if we can trade back and load up on picks. 

 

Now if there's no trade I say take skill position players like ETN, Najee or Williams and then move back up into the  high 50s for Rondale Moore . Imagine adding ETN & Rondale Moore to this offense all of a sudden we are one of the fastest elite offenses in the NFL.  We go from averaging 31 last yr to 37 this yr. I know many TBD members might not like this but think about it we need to add more speed to this offense we can't expect to roll out basically the same guys as last yr and think we'll automatically net the same results teams will study what we did last yr and be more prepared for us this season.  I'm thinking we use a pk next yr and 1 of our 5ths to move up for Rondale and the rest of the draft we can go Defense & Offensive line. 

 

If we take this type of approach we can add a vet Corner and DE after the draft maybe we can get Sherman and Clowney and we can sign a back up Safety like Malik Hooker for cheap. I think with these types of moves we can challenge for a SUPERBOWL title this yr. 

 

I disagree on Newsome. I think he is 100% worth the #30 pick. I agree totally on the other three corners you list, I wouldn't select any of those before round 3. But Newsome is definitely worth it. He won't get to #30 though I don't think. Tyron isn't worth a first and not a second in this scheme either. But Phillips and Rousseau I have higher than Ojulari. 

 

I remain not a big running back in round 1 guy and certainly not Williams. That would be a big reach. 

[JMF2006]

On 4/5/2021 at 1:21 PM, eball said:

The one who sucks.

 

Anyone who sucks

 

There will be more than one

[BillsFan1988]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree on Newsome. I think he is 100% worth the #30 pick. I agree totally on the other three corners you list, I wouldn't select any of those before round 3. But Newsome is definitely worth it. He won't get to #30 though I don't think. Tyron isn't worth a first and not a second in this scheme either. But Phillips and Rousseau I have higher than Ojulari. 

 

I remain not a big running back in round 1 guy and certainly not Williams. That would be a big reach. 

I like Phillips but those concussions are very concerning I wouldn't take him until #61 he probably won't be there but i don't think it's worth the risk at #30. Rousseau didn't test well and I never really liked him to begin with . Ojulari I can't see why u wouldn't like him over these guys he's explosive and plays with some power for his size he got some work to do with his technique but the sky is the limit for him he has potential to be a elite Edge player.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, BillsFan1988 said:

I like Phillips but those concussions are very concerning I wouldn't take him until #61 he probably won't be there but i don't think it's worth the risk at #30. Rousseau didn't test well and I never really liked him to begin with . Ojulari I can't see why u wouldn't like him over these guys he's explosive and plays with some power for his size he got some work to do with his technique but the sky is the limit for him he has potential to be a elite Edge player.

 

He isn't my sort of edge rusher. Hands, hands, hands..... at times Ojulari's appear like blocks of meat stuck on the end of his arms. I think he is undersized as well and from a Buffalo only perspective he is NOT a good scheme fit. If I was Baltimore or Green Bay or Tampa drafting at the end of round 1 for a 3-4 scheme I'd find Ojulari more attractive I think, but I'm still not entirely sold on him as a first round player even for the right scheme. I love his burst, but I think you can get fixated on that, and once you look at how he plays once into the down I have concerns about whether he has the necessary skills to be an every down rusher in the NFL. 

[Bill from NYC]

On 4/5/2021 at 1:28 PM, dpberr said:

 

I'd especially be wary of any player who sat out last year.  

Agree 100%

[McBean]

Any defensive player.

 

I want a RB or WR.

 

A lot of points win games in this league.

[The Jokeman]

20 minutes ago, McBean said:

Any defensive player.

 

I want a RB or WR.

 

A lot of points win games in this league.

We were 2nd in points last year, we need to improve the defense IMO specifically at the edges on the line and at CB. I also look at improving the guard play too before look at the RB or WR. I could see taking a TE.

[OldTimer1960]

10 minutes ago, FFadpecr said:

 

2nd in points (31 PPG) isn't good enough, especially when you're just 1 RB weapon away (ETN) from 37-38 PPG. 

 

Why settle for 30 PPG when you clearly have the potential for 40 PPG? I don't want this offense to be just good, or just great, I want it to be all-time historic. I want 40 PPG.

 

Adding another RB or WR weapon is more important than CB, DL, and Guard. This is a Passing Offense - the Guards are fine. Add another force multiplier to the skill positions.

 

You build around your franchise player. Stop overthinking it.

I think your premise that adding Etienne would increase scoring by a TD per game is questionable.  Did KC’s scoring increase by that much when they added Clyde Edwards-Helaire?

[Victory Formation]

11 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think your premise that adding Etienne would increase scoring by a TD per game is questionable.  Did KC’s scoring increase by that much when they added Clyde Edwards-Helaire?

If we go RB, give me Harris.

[BillsFan1988]

18 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think your premise that adding Etienne would increase scoring by a TD per game is questionable.  Did KC’s scoring increase by that much when they added Clyde Edwards-Helaire?

CEH was a reach they should of taken Taylor or Dobbins. 

[BillsFan1988]

1 hour ago, FFadpecr said:

 

2nd in points (31 PPG) isn't good enough, especially when you're just 1 RB weapon away (ETN) from 37-38 PPG. 

 

Why settle for 30 PPG when you clearly have the potential for 40 PPG? I don't want this offense to be just good, or just great, I want it to be all-time historic. I want 40 PPG.

 

Adding another RB or WR weapon is more important than CB, DL, and Guard. This is a Passing Offense - the Guards are fine. Add another force multiplier to the skill positions.

 

You build around your franchise player. Stop overthinking it.

To be honest chasing needs is not what we need . Every team has needs the question is do we have enough difference makers to overcome said needs. At the end of the day it's the difference makers that win the chip. 

 

The Bucs last yr had a average at best secondary but they had the difference making talent in the front 7 to mask that deficiency. The yr before the Chiefs had an average LBer core and Secondary and at best a average Oline but guess what the difference making talent made the difference. 

 

Now when it comes to the Bills we have 3 said Difference makers Allen, Diggs and Tre White we also have a few guys we are relying on to take that next step into being said players like Edmunds and Oliver we also have some borderline guys like Poyer , Dawkins & Hyde . This coming draft we need to try to hit grand slams. Adding ETN & Rondale Moore can get us to the next level on Offense. Yes I said it the next level I know it's crazy to think of but we can get better and score more pts. 

 

On Defense we can still add a couple Vets to Solidify that side of the ball. There's still CBs like Sherman, Heyward and Nelson available and at Dline Clowney, Griffen and Kerrigan are still out there. If we can get a combo of any 2 of these guys for a good price that can go along way to getting us to the Show and winning it all. 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, BillsFan1988 said:

To be honest chasing needs is not what we need . Every team has needs the question is do we have enough difference makers to overcome said needs. At the end of the day it's the difference makers that win the chip. 

 

The Bucs last yr had a average at best secondary but they had the difference making talent in the front 7 to mask that deficiency. The yr before the Chiefs had an average LBer core and Secondary and at best a average Oline but guess what the difference making talent made the difference. 

 

Now when it comes to the Bills we have 3 said Difference makers Allen, Diggs and Tre White we also have a few guys we are relying on to take that next step into being said players like Edmunds and Oliver we also have some borderline guys like Poyer , Dawkins & Hyde . This coming draft we need to try to hit grand slams. Adding ETN & Rondale Moore can get us to the next level on Offense. Yes I said it the next level I know it's crazy to think of but we can get better and score more pts. 

 

On Defense we can still add a couple Vets to Solidify that side of the ball. There's still CBs like Sherman, Heyward and Nelson available and at Dline Clowney, Griffen and Kerrigan are still out there. If we can get a combo of any 2 of these guys for a good price that can go along way to getting us to the Show and winning it all. 

 

Agree on difference makers. My calculation is that most Superbowl winning teams have 4-6 of those real difference making players. The Bills need one or two more and while ideally they'd be a game breaking tight end and a superstar edge rusher they don't need to be. We should just take the guy we think can be a difference maker and not worry where on the field he plays. 

 

EDIT: and I repeat what I said before... the most likely way of the Bills finding two additional difference makers in 2021 is that Ed Oliver and Tremaine Edmunds step up into that bracket. 

Edited April 7, 2021 by GunnerBill

[TheBeaneBandit]

5 minutes ago, FFadpecr said:

 

 

Combo of ESanders + ETN = increase of 5+ PPG. Yes.

 

ETN is better than CEH at both rushing and receiving. They are not the same player; ETN is clearly better. So your question is irrelevant; your question operates under the premise that ETN = CEH which is simply not the case.

 

I don't think you understand the Bills offense if u want them to draft Najee Harris in Round 1.

 

 

Exactly.

 

CEH was an overrated RB prospect to begin with.

 

He wasn't even the best RB on the board when the Chiefs picked him.

 

People keep making the Chiefs/CEH analogy in regards to the Bills/ETN. ETN is a genuinely elite RB prospect; CEH never was.

I was thinking the Bills would have to trade back into the 2nd round if they wanted him. Chiefs took him a good 20 picks or so earlier than I thought he'd go.

[Beerball]

Easy answer for me. If the Bills draft Taro Tsujimoto I will be so done with this team.

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

We were 2nd in points last year, we need to improve the defense IMO specifically at the edges on the line and at CB. I also look at improving the guard play too before look at the RB or WR. I could see taking a TE.

Our offense got dominated by the chiefs in both games last season. Our offense needs to improve, not stay the same.   

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree on difference makers. My calculation is that most Superbowl winning teams have 4-6 of those real difference making players. The Bills need one or two more and while ideally they'd be a game breaking tight end and a superstar edge rusher they don't need to be. We should just take the guy we think can be a difference maker and not worry where on the field he plays. 

 

EDIT: and I repeat what I said before... the most likely way of the Bills finding two additional difference makers in 2021 is that Ed Oliver and Tremaine Edmunds step up into that bracket. 

Do you see any potential difference makers who might be available at 30?  I can imagine some with the upside to possibly become difference makers, but not many that I think would likely be out of the gate stars, though I would love to hear different opinions.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Do you see any potential difference makers who might be available at 30?  I can imagine some with the upside to possibly become difference makers, but not many that I think would likely be out of the gate stars, though I would love to hear different opinions.

 

They are harder to find at #30, for sure. But there will be guys taken after that pick who are difference makers as rookies.

 

Our best bet for difference makers remains in house guys stepping up. 

[OldTimer1960]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are harder to find at #30, for sure. But there will be guys taken after that pick who are difference makers as rookies.

 

Our best bet for difference makers remains in house guys stepping up. 

Completely agree, both Oliver and Edmunds are young and talented.

 

Also agree that history shows that there are difference makers drafted after the first round - challenge is, which guys this year will be drafted after 30 that will be very good players?
 

I think that to find a really good player at 30 at a “premium” position will require gambling an a guy who has great athleticism, but not a lot of production or limited experience.  Guys like Jayson Oweh with crazy tools, but embarrassing production or guys who flashed in 2019, but didn’t play in ‘20 are in that camp.  Also, in that group could be high production and tools guys at positions that are considered “less important”.

 

I really respect your opinions, can you name a few players who you think might become difference makers that could be available around picks 30 and 61?

[Solomon Grundy]

On 4/5/2021 at 1:28 PM, dpberr said:

I'd hate a trade down.  Trade downs are for draft nerds and playing Madden.  If you're in the first round, take a player.  

 

As for players, no  raw one hit wonders who are 95% elite athlete, 5% football player. 

 

I'd especially be wary of any player who sat out last year.  

Jaylen Twyman sat out and still threw up 40 reps on the bench

[Augie]

I’d probably have @DC Tom at the top of my list. My sources tell me his 40 yard dash is still in progress. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

Any WR at this point.... I think it would really hurt Gabriel Davis' production who I think is ready to become a star in this league. He looked like he belonged most of those games he played and learning from Diggs is a bonus also.

[Victory Formation]

On 4/7/2021 at 9:30 AM, The Jokeman said:

We were 2nd in points last year, we need to improve the defense IMO specifically at the edges on the line and at CB. I also look at improving the guard play too before look at the RB or WR. I could see taking a TE.

Agree on some levels.. Defense needs the love. Although this is a fantastic year for OL, I doubt we go there.. I could see a RB like Najee Harris if he’s available, but I doubt we would take any other offensive player outside of that unless there’s a big time player that drops. I see CB, DE and DT as the most likely targets at 30. Also think Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah being a target or Zaven Collins but outside of those two guys I doubt we go LB.

[TheBeaneBandit]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

Any WR at this point.... I think it would really hurt Gabriel Davis' production who I think is ready to become a star in this league. He looked like he belonged most of those games he played and learning from Diggs is a bonus also.

I don't know if he is explosive enough to be a star, but steady and dependable for sure.

[NewEra]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

Any WR at this point.... I think it would really hurt Gabriel Davis' production who I think is ready to become a star in this league. He looked like he belonged most of those games he played and learning from Diggs is a bonus also.

Who cares about Gabriel Davis’ production?  We’re trying to win a super bowl.  Our O couldn’t do Jack vs the chiefs D TWO times last season. If we don’t draft a player because it would hurt gave davis’ production, the FO should be fired.  Luckily, they would never say or think of such nonsense