The Saints will be almost $100M over the salary cap next year!

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

9 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Probably not since the Bills don’t have any money either 

This is not true. Misleading at best. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

And Irsay made Ralph look like a spend thrift, well at least the old man did.

 

 

WRT to cap saving I see Brees is listed a cap hit of $36 mil and dead cap of $22.6.  For the cap saving do you basically subtract the dead from the hit?

 

Yes.  You can also for all intents and purposes add the replacement to the dead cap hit since you aren't really saving it if you spent it on another player.  

45 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said:

No, otherwise teams would do this all the time.  The cap hit comes from the annual salary plus signing bonus which is spread over the length of the contract.  A lot of these bonuses are huge and spread over long periods (to minimize the impact over any single year) but then when the contract is terminated early the remainder gets added to the cap all in a year or two .

 

Right, you already gave him the bonus.  If you retired with 3 years of bonus payments they would all get mashed into 1 cap hit.  Brees also has 2 void years of bonus payments.  He was never even intended to be on the team, they fully expected to eat cap space to not have him - with the intention of being more competitive on the rest of the roster.

Edited January 19, 2021 by dneveu

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

I wonder if they’ll consider allowing each team to terminate one contract with no penalties if the cap goes down significantly. They did this in the NBA years ago. Although it was part of a new CBA and their contracts anew fully guaranteed. 

[HOUSE]

This was NO final run at the SB. They can now start the re build. No job is safe in NO

[Rk_Bills86]

The Cap isn't set in stone yet - so lets pump the brakes a bit.

 

Additionally - while the NFL is a hard cap - with some monetary fines for going over - some teams can and will go over the cap. The WFT have done so multiple times in the past and the owner just ate the fines. If I remember correctly there is some additional fine print regarding how the cap fines and penalties are given out based on the length of contracts and their weight distribution, and etc....

[DCOrange]

It's going to be an ugly offseason and probably ugly few years for them, but a lot can be fixed (at least in the short-term) with restructures and some obvious cut/trade candidates.

 

So right now, they appear to be about $95 million over the cap (not to mention they need to add players in order to field a full roster)

• Brees retires: $13.5 mil
• Cam Jordan restructure: $9.6 mil
• Michael Thomas restructure: $8.9 mil
• Terron Armstead restructure: $6.8 mil
• Taysom Hill trade: $12.1 mil
• Janoris Jenkins June Cut: $10 mil
• Kwon Alexander cut: $13.4 mil
• Andrus Peat restructure: $6 mil
• Ryan Ramczyk extension: $8.1 mil
• Marshon Lattimore extension: $7.4 mil (or potentially trade for over $10 mil)
• Nick Easton cut: $6 mil
• Malcom Brown cut: $5 mil
• Emmanuel Sanders June Trade: $8 mil

These moves get New Orleans to roughly $5 mil in cap space while still needing to add 15 players to the team.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

This is an excellent synopsis. Here are my calculations, presuming that the league bumps the cap up to around $200 million, leaving them $80 million over:

• Brees retiring  saves about $13.5 million
• Releasing Kwon Alexander saves $13.4 million
• Releasing Sanders saves $6.5 million
• Taysom Hill is prime candidate for restructure, release would save $5 million, restructure potentially more, call it $7 million
• The above 4 saves $40.5 million, halfway there
• That's where it gets tough: Oline possibilities: Ramczyk ($11m), Armstead ($5.6m), Nick Easton ($6m)
• Janoris Jenkins cut would save $7m, restructure less, M. Brown cut would save $5m
• Probably can find 4-5 more that will save an average of $2m each

If you notice there are a lot of players who if released their dead cap is close to equal or even more than the cap hit if on the roster. The years of restructure and going for it while they have had Brees is really coming back to bite them now. While they have been able to restructure their way out of it in the past I think they will have to make far tougher decisions this offseason and they could be pretty bad in 2021.

Problem is they have 46 under contract so if they release 8-10 from above now they have 36-38 players so at least 15 roster spots to fill. They need money for their draft picks and to fill the rest of the roster spots, so they would probably need at least $20 million. They will have to get very creative.

 

People are discounting the highlighted.    You need some cap space to fill the roster with minimum salary players and sign draft picks.    It's not just subtraction they will have to add back in as well.    They are finally in a real jam.    

[Coach Tuesday]

What's the hit if they outright cut Thomas? He's an expensive luxury at this point and he didn't really help them get deep into the playoffs this year.

[thenorthremembers]

Brees officially retiring post June 1st will save them 25 million.   I think what you'll see is a lot of teams adding years to current players contracts and moving a lot of the money to the later years where the cap is higher.    I fully expect the Bills to reup Diggs, Hughes, and Hyde this offseason.  Resigning Feliciano, Williams, and Milano but then paying less of their contracts in the 1st year.  Williams should be somewhere around 4/40million, but expect him to only get 5 the first year with a higher roster bonus.

 

The Saints have some work to do, but they will get there, teams always do.   Look at KC.

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

This is an excellent synopsis. Here are my calculations, presuming that the league bumps the cap up to around $200 million, leaving them $80 million over:

• Brees retiring  saves about $13.5 million
• Releasing Kwon Alexander saves $13.4 million
• Releasing Sanders saves $6.5 million
• Taysom Hill is prime candidate for restructure, release would save $5 million, restructure potentially more, call it $7 million
• The above 4 saves $40.5 million, halfway there
• That's where it gets tough: Oline possibilities: Ramczyk ($11m), Armstead ($5.6m), Nick Easton ($6m)
• Janoris Jenkins cut would save $7m, restructure less, M. Brown cut would save $5m
• Probably can find 4-5 more that will save an average of $2m each

If you notice there are a lot of players who if released their dead cap is close to equal or even more than the cap hit if on the roster. The years of restructure and going for it while they have had Brees is really coming back to bite them now. While they have been able to restructure their way out of it in the past I think they will have to make far tougher decisions this offseason and they could be pretty bad in 2021.

Problem is they have 46 under contract so if they release 8-10 from above now they have 36-38 players so at least 15 roster spots to fill. They need money for their draft picks and to fill the rest of the roster spots, so they would probably need at least $20 million. They will have to get very creative.

 

Sure they could do all that but that is at 46 roster players.

The Saints also suffer with NOT signing any of their current FAs in this scenario.

That means DT Sheldon Rankins and FS Marcus Williams (among others) are moving on to new teams!

 

They will be hurting no matter what people think.

[Just Joshin']

8 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Brees officially retiring post June 1st will save them 25 million.   I think what you'll see is a lot of teams adding years to current players contracts and moving a lot of the money to the later years where the cap is higher.    I fully expect the Bills to reup Diggs, Hughes, and Hyde this offseason.  Resigning Feliciano, Williams, and Milano but then paying less of their contracts in the 1st year.  Williams should be somewhere around 4/40million, but expect him to only get 5 the first year with a higher roster bonus.

 

The Saints have some work to do, but they will get there, teams always do.   Look at KC.

But they will also need to carry his full contract until he does so they will need to meet the cap with his contract.  So rip the bandage off otherwise you need to make a cut to cover a salary that will go away.

[RobbRiddicksTDLeap]

Wont they just start a total rebuild? Eat all the dead cap space they can, surround Winston with garbage, and tank next season?

 

That’s the new model for successful teams. 

[TheBrownBear]

That's what UDFAs are for.

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, RobbRiddicksTDLeap said:

Wont they just start a total rebuild? Eat all the dead cap space they can, surround Winston with garbage, and tank next season?

 

That’s the new model for successful teams. 

 

Winston is a UFA next year.  They tank with Taysom Hill.

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, jlgarsh said:

I’d imagine Brees retiring and saving $35million helps a bit. But from there, I cannot understand paying Taysom Hill over $16 million next year to be a gadget guy. Janoris Jenkins would save $7 million, and Emmanuel Sanders another 6.5. That leaves another $50 million to clear. 

 

 

People are under the impression that there are cap wizards out there capable of shaking their magic wands and making dead money go away. It doesn't work like that. Any time you give someone a signing bonus you are borrowing money from your own cap's future years. That money MUST be paid back one way or another unless the team can force the guy (or he does it voluntarily) to return money that is his. It virtually never happens with guys who aren't consciously screwing teams out of money. 

 

But IMO they could maybe keep Brees on the roster through June 1st so they can delay paying half his dead money. Will cause them problems in 2022 if they do that, but it might be worth it if they can save a few of the guys they'd like to keep using that money.

 

One of the few cases I can remember is that Vontae Davis voluntarily repaid his bonus and gave up his guarantee after not playing only a week or two of his contract. But that won't happen with Brees. They don't save nearly that much money with all the dead cap Brees represents.

 

The Saints couldn't sign Jadeveon Clowney because of cap problems this last year. It hurts. But they knew their window was closing fast. It was worth it to them to take another kick at the can. Didn't work, though, and that will impair their competitiveness a great deal the next year or two.

 

Easton and Kwon Alexander seem virtually certain cuts as there's little dead money but significant savings. They've got around $4.2M to carry over from this year so that's a little something.

 

Lattimore leaving would save them money but I think they really like him. Janoris Jenkins, Malcom Brown and Emanuel Sanders could go. Terron Armstead if they don't like him that much.

 

Then some restructures. It'll be tough, but they can do it. I don't think they'll be particularly competitive next year anyway.

[Coach Tuesday]

What they should do?  Trade Sean Payton to Philly for a 1st.  He might not want to stick around for the rebuild and it would give them a much-needed cost-controlled asset.

[jlgarsh]

14 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

People are under the impression that there are cap wizards out there capable of shaking their magic wands and making dead money go away. It doesn't work like that. Any time you give someone a signing bonus you are borrowing money from your own cap's future years. That money MUST be paid back one way or another unless the team can force the guy (or he does it voluntarily) to return money that is his. It virtually never happens with guys who aren't consciously screwing teams out of money. 

 

But IMO they could maybe keep Brees on the roster through June 1st so they can delay paying half his dead money. Will cause them problems in 2022 if they do that, but it might be worth it if they can save a few of the guys they'd like to keep using that money.

 

One of the few cases I can remember is that Vontae Davis voluntarily repaid his bonus and gave up his guarantee after not playing only a week or two of his contract. But that won't happen with Brees. They don't save nearly that much money with all the dead cap Brees represents.

 

The Saints couldn't sign Jadeveon Clowney because of cap problems this last year. It hurts. But they knew their window was closing fast. It was worth it to them to take another kick at the can. Didn't work, though, and that will impair their competitiveness a great deal the next year or two.

 

Easton and Kwon Alexander seem virtually certain cuts as there's little dead money but significant savings. They've got around $4.2M to carry over from this year so that's a little something.

 

Lattimore leaving would save them money but I think they really like him. Janoris Jenkins, Malcom Brown and Emanuel Sanders could go. Terron Armstead if they don't like him that much.

 

Then some restructures. It'll be tough, but they can do it. I don't think they'll be particularly competitive next year anyway.

I thought if they retired the cap hit goes away? Instead of getting cut

[Charles Romes]

I hate to say it but this really tarnishes Brees’s legacy.  He let them mortgage their future for one more shot and yet he knew he was incapable of throwing 15 yards downfield.  He should restructure and work for the league minimum as their backup/bridge for a few years. 

[Coach Tuesday]

7 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

I hate to say it but this really tarnishes Brees’s legacy.  He let them mortgage their future for one more shot and yet he knew he was incapable of throwing 15 yards downfield.  He should restructure and work for the league minimum as their backup/bridge for a few years. 

 

This 100% does NOT tarnish Brees's legacy.  He's always been a max contract guy, as is his right.

[BullBuchanan]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

Don’t we watch this movie play out every year? 
 

“how will the Saints manage their terrible cap situation this year?”

 

(Saints easily manage their cap in the offseason)

 

”Alas, maybe next time”

Yea, even though it always looks like a disaster - Mickey Loomis might be the best GM in pro sports.

[RobbRiddicksTDLeap]

47 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Winston is a UFA next year.  They tank with Taysom Hill.

Oh, perfect! 

[ColoradoBills]

28 minutes ago, jlgarsh said:

I thought if they retired the cap hit goes away? Instead of getting cut

 

That's true with typical contracts and usually that is from "Signing Bonus" money returned for years not played.

Brees contract is a mess.  Some of the Dead Money is due to previous contract restructures.

As others have already said, it's not clear how that's handled.  I think it's owed Brees.

 

The other question is these 2 phony years in his contract pushing his signing bonus out.  I like the $ stuff and I don't know about that either.

Everyone will get an education as to what happens in the next few months.

[BaaadThingsMan]

13 hours ago, mannc said:

Well, I guess the Saints are out of the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes then...

Or are they?

[foreboding]

13 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

its amazing how highly leveraged the Saints have been for years. I remember when they signed Jairus Byrd way back when, and they were way over the cap even then and folks were scratching their heads. They always seem to find a way to restructure everyone. 

It is a little known secret that in 2027, the Saints intend to field a team entirely composed of Canadian football players. After that season, they will be back to $0 cap hit.

[DCOrange]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

What's the hit if they outright cut Thomas? He's an expensive luxury at this point and he didn't really help them get deep into the playoffs this year.

It actually puts them in an even bigger financial hole if they cut him. They can restructure his deal to save cap as I alluded to in my post but outright cutting him would put them over $100 million in the hole I believe.

[GunnerBill]

59 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

That's true with typical contracts and usually that is from "Signing Bonus" money returned for years not played.

Brees contract is a mess.  Some of the Dead Money is due to previous contract restructures.

As others have already said, it's not clear how that's handled.  I think it's owed Brees.

 

The other question is these 2 phony years in his contract pushing his signing bonus out.  I like the $ stuff and I don't know about that either.

Everyone will get an education as to what happens in the next few months.

 

The bonus money that remains on the cap has already been paid to him. It can't go away the team has to account for it somewhere. It can either eat it all in 2021 or it can spread it across 2021 and 2022. But Drew has had that money in his bank account since the day he signed the deal.

11 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

It actually puts them in an even bigger financial hole if they cut him. They can restructure his deal to save cap as I alluded to in my post but outright cutting him would put them over $100 million in the hole I believe.

 

Yea they can't cut him and they can't trade him. They have to restructure his deal.

[billsfan89]

4 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

I wonder if they’ll consider allowing each team to terminate one contract with no penalties if the cap goes down significantly. They did this in the NBA years ago. Although it was part of a new CBA and their contracts anew fully guaranteed. 

 

I don't think the NFL or NFLPA is going to let the cap go down 20+ million. I think they will do what the NBA did and keep the cap flat but have the players put a portion of their salaries in escrow and have that portion of their salary with held or distributed based on the yearly revenues along with a possible league wide bonus if revenues exceed expectations wildly. I just don't see the players wanting it nor do I see owners and GMs wanting such a crunch. 

 

4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

It's going to be an ugly offseason and probably ugly few years for them, but a lot can be fixed (at least in the short-term) with restructures and some obvious cut/trade candidates.

 

So right now, they appear to be about $95 million over the cap (not to mention they need to add players in order to field a full roster)

• Brees retires: $13.5 mil
• Cam Jordan restructure: $9.6 mil
• Michael Thomas restructure: $8.9 mil
• Terron Armstead restructure: $6.8 mil
• Taysom Hill trade: $12.1 mil
• Janoris Jenkins June Cut: $10 mil
• Kwon Alexander cut: $13.4 mil
• Andrus Peat restructure: $6 mil
• Ryan Ramczyk extension: $8.1 mil
• Marshon Lattimore extension: $7.4 mil (or potentially trade for over $10 mil)
• Nick Easton cut: $6 mil
• Malcom Brown cut: $5 mil
• Emmanuel Sanders June Trade: $8 mil

These moves get New Orleans to roughly $5 mil in cap space while still needing to add 15 players to the team.

 

They aren't trading Taysom Hill who is their only QB on the roster assuming Brees retires. I also think the cap isn't going to be set at 175 million. I likely think they are going to set the cap at 195-205 million which would give the Saints (assuming they make all those moves minus trading Taysom Hill) about 22 million in space which should allow them to add their rookie pool and fill the remaining roster slots with cheaper players. I also think they might work with Michael Thomas's contract to free up a little more space. 

 

The Saints will be able to make these moves and take a step back as needed.

[jlgarsh]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

That's true with typical contracts and usually that is from "Signing Bonus" money returned for years not played.

Brees contract is a mess.  Some of the Dead Money is due to previous contract restructures.

As others have already said, it's not clear how that's handled.  I think it's owed Brees.

 

The other question is these 2 phony years in his contract pushing his signing bonus out.  I like the $ stuff and I don't know about that either.

Everyone will get an education as to what happens in the next few months.

Wild. I just heard on NFL radio that the cap is decreasing $18 million next year. I wonder if that’s even factored in?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

That's true with typical contracts and usually that is from "Signing Bonus" money returned for years not played.

Brees contract is a mess.  Some of the Dead Money is due to previous contract restructures.

As others have already said, it's not clear how that's handled.  I think it's owed Brees.

 

The other question is these 2 phony years in his contract pushing his signing bonus out.  I like the $ stuff and I don't know about that either.

Everyone will get an education as to what happens in the next few months.

 

They're called void years.  So essentially you are giving someone a 2 year contract - but spreading the bonus over 4 years.  They can sign with you again, but that bonus money was paid, and would hit the cap.  

 

Depending on when they announce, they can split the hit over 2 seasons.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, jlgarsh said:

Wild. I just heard on NFL radio that the cap is decreasing $18 million next year. I wonder if that’s even factored in?

 

That would be around 180M.   Spotrac had been using the agreed upon floor of like 175M.  

 

It's not a good time to be a free agent though.  Top end guys will still get theirs, but the middle tier and below are about to get lowballed - i also see middle level talent signing extensions to stay where they are.  Example: John brown - Cap hit 9.5m, dead cap 1.6.  He won't get 8M on the open market.  So instead, you drop his salary to like 1M for 2021, and partially guarantee a year in 2022 with a signing bonus and roster bonus. 

 

Gets his cap hit down to something like 3M, and he doesn't lose a game of musical chairs and end up signing a 1 year deal for like 1M which can tank his value.

[ColoradoBills]

16 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

They're called void years.  So essentially you are giving someone a 2 year contract - but spreading the bonus over 4 years.  They can sign with you again, but that bonus money was paid, and would hit the cap.  

 

Depending on when they announce, they can split the hit over 2 seasons.

 

Yes Void years.  I just used the term some "capologists" use, phony.  I was pretty sure it's money owed to the player but wasn't 100% sure.

I'll take your word that it is.

 

@jlgarshjust said $18M decrease ($180M) and I just looked up some articles on it.  That's another projection.  I was figuring

it would end up around $185M-$190M when all the negotiations are done.

 

After all is said and done you got to admit the Saints are in uncharted waters regarding the cap.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Yes Void years.  I just used the term some "capologists" use, phony.  I was pretty sure it's money owed to the player but wasn't 100% sure.

I'll take your word that it is.

 

@jlgarshjust said $18M decrease ($180M) and I just looked up some articles on it.  That's another projection.  I was figuring

it would end up around $185M-$190M when all the negotiations are done.

 

After all is said and done you got to admit the Saints are in uncharted waters regarding the cap.

 

It's not necessarily "owed"... they already paid it out.  So if you look here (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/drew-brees-4542/) - everything to the right of base salary he already has.  None of it is a roster bonus, or workout bonus - it was fully guaranteed.  

 

They've been doing restructures for years essentially betting on an increasing cap.  The highest paid WR for 5 years is like the 15th highest paid 5 years later etc.  The eagles are probably just as screwed, and they don't have anything of value to trade like the saints.  

 

The saints could move any of the following players (who have value and would net solid picks/players in return) and gain cap savings: Lattimore, Armstead, Sanders, and Ramczyk.  They can also extend and lower cap hits for some players, and designate some post-june cuts to split cap hits.  In any case, they'll look a lot different next year - and they are going to need a lot of draft picks in 2021/2022 to contribute.

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

It's not necessarily "owed"... they already paid it out.  So if you look here (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/drew-brees-4542/) - everything to the right of base salary he already has.  None of it is a roster bonus, or workout bonus - it was fully guaranteed.  

 

They've been doing restructures for years essentially betting on an increasing cap.  The highest paid WR for 5 years is like the 15th highest paid 5 years later etc.  The eagles are probably just as screwed, and they don't have anything of value to trade like the saints.  

 

The saints could move any of the following players (who have value and would net solid picks/players in return) and gain cap savings: Lattimore, Armstead, Sanders, and Ramczyk.  They can also extend and lower cap hits for some players, and designate some post-june cuts to split cap hits.  In any case, they'll look a lot different next year - and they are going to need a lot of draft picks in 2021/2022 to contribute.

 

Agree especially the part about them doing a lot of restructuring.

I used the wrong term "owed" as you pointed out.  I was using that term is the sense of the Saints "reclaiming" any of the paid

bonus to Brees now that he is retiring.

 

I'm sure both of us are interested in how the Saints and Eagles move through this in the next 2 months.

[Steve Billieve]

Incredible. Honestly I was hoping that they work it out so the cap would be higher next year, but this has changed my mind.

I felt really bad for players before, but looking at this, players willing to restructure are going to have a lot of power over some organizations. Absolutely nuts!

[co_springs_billsfan]

5 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Agree especially the part about them doing a lot of restructuring.

I used the wrong term "owed" as you pointed out.  I was using that term is the sense of the Saints "reclaiming" any of the paid

bonus to Brees now that he is retiring.

 

I'm sure both of us are interested in how the Saints and Eagles move through this in the next 2 months.

They in a sense "owe" it against the cap.  It's like a debt they have been pushing down the road that has to hit the cap someday.

 

I was looking at spotrac and man is that a mess.  The Saints have a lot of expensive guys that cost more dead cap if cut than if they keep them.  They're gonna need to do A LOT of cuts/trades/restructures.  Teams with lots of cap space and draft capital should definitely make some calls...

[Orlando Tim]

Since I think Brees will still work for the Saints for the foreseeable future is there anything stopping him from returning his entire signing bonus and getting paid back through a large front office contract? I know way back when the Lions got signing bonus money returned from Barry Sanders. I know that was a different CBA but is anyone know if that could happen.

[GunnerBill]

Got an interesting message this morning from a guy I know who is a big draft follower and has heard a few wild rumours that have come to pass before...... don't rule out Darnold ending up on the Saints. He has heard that they don't see Hill as the heir apparent and they would be attracted to the cheap nature of Darnold's rookie deal. Apparently he was the only QB Payton liked in that draft. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Maybe they could reset all dead cap space to 0 for all teams. 

[Just Joshin']

2 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Maybe they could reset all dead cap space to 0 for all teams. 

Not fair for teams who are under cap.  The Saints knew this day was coming when they went all in to win before Brees retired.

[BullBuchanan]

On 1/19/2021 at 10:38 AM, ColoradoBills said:

 

Winston is a UFA next year.  They tank with Taysom Hill.

Given Hill is 3-1 as a starter, a tank might not be that easy to pull off.