Big Turk Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 (edited) Bills have lowest chance among any of the favorites. For what it is worth, Baltimore was favored against Tennessee in their models with a 57% chance of winning. Edited January 11, 2021 by Big Turk 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bferra13 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Ehhh. It's something I guess. Im pretty sure they also agreed with Reich goin for it on 4th and goal at the 4. Take it for the grain of salt its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
US Egg Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 What is 538 and why should I be concerned? .....nevermind. Sorry for the intrusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreboding Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Bucs/Saints % looks a little off to me. Ravens are a really good team. 65% is a decent chance! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BITE ME Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I wasn't worried about the Bills losing to the Ravens until 538 picked the Bills. The Bills are in trouble. 😬 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SinatraSinger Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 If you go to sportsline.com they have the spread at Buffalo -2.5 with the over/under at 50. The simulated score at the moment is Baltimore 25, Buffalo 24. So they are stating that you should bet Baltimore with the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 do they know we have antonio williams? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorquemada Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I wouldn't lose too much sleep over what Nate Silver has to say on the topic. Dunkirk Don has about as good a track record as he does 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 After the election, everything 538 does needs to be taken with a grain of salt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 27 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said: After the election, everything 538 does needs to be taken with a grain of salt I mean - reliance upon polling data and trends is always a challenge. Certain polls traditionally are right - but you're still extrapolating a ton of data from a small sample size. The high number of absentee and mail-in ballots in general made this an incredibly hard election to project. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, dneveu said: I mean - reliance upon polling data and trends is always a challenge. Certain polls traditionally are right - but you're still extrapolating a ton of data from a small sample size. The high number of absentee and mail-in ballots in general made this an incredibly hard election to project. You're right, and models always have the caveat that they are drawing from the data they have and there is risk of an incomplete set. But maaaaaaan those margins were off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said: You're right, and models always have the caveat that they are drawing from the data they have and there is risk of an incomplete set. But maaaaaaan those margins were off They nailed the Georgia senate races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jethro_tull Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 this is interesting and hopeful ! regardless the Bills are in the top 4 and are capable of winning this and every game. it passes the eye test IMHO. They all have chinks in their armor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jletha Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 36 minutes ago, dneveu said: I mean - reliance upon polling data and trends is always a challenge. Certain polls traditionally are right - but you're still extrapolating a ton of data from a small sample size. The high number of absentee and mail-in ballots in general made this an incredibly hard election to project. They also predicted that Biden could win even with a strong polling error in favor of Trump, which is what happened. But some of the win projections in individual states was way off. Why is Wisconsin so hard to poll haha? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Victory Formation Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Think our strategy should be the same against any team but especially the Ravens.. Put points on the board quick and force Jackson to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 If you don’t like this model, just find another one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: If you don’t like this model, just find another one... lol indeed... Speaking of... - ESPN's FPI has the Ravens at 51% to win. Edited January 11, 2021 by BobChalmers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 22 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: If you don’t like this model, just find another one... that's what Billy Joel said.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 hours ago, Big Turk said: Bills have lowest chance among any of the favorites. For what it is worth, Baltimore was favored against Tennessee in their models with a 57% chance of winning. I think the Bills should be favorites but not by nearly 2 to 1 odds. I see this as a 55-45 odds type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 That 79/21 split for KC vs. Cleveland seems about right. Our 65% chance sounds good to me. I'll take that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said: After the election, everything 538 does needs to be taken with a grain of salt The one big thing they got right: translating popular vote margin into likelihood of an electoral college win. Given the natural Republican electoral college advantage, they predicted that Biden would need a popular vote margin of at least 3-4 percent to prevail. And the final tally was spot on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 BuT iT's AlWaYs WrOnG iN pReSiDeNtIaL eLeCtIoNs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UB2SF Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I've always enjoyed their predictive analytics for sports. One the things I really liked about looking at their model today -- it shows that the Bills and the Chiefs are the only two teams left who have 14 wins this season. Fourteen wins! Still can't believe it sometimes. GO BILLS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Magox said: I think the Bills should be favorites but not by nearly 2 to 1 odds. I see this as a 55-45 odds type of deal. After looking at the type of defense Baltimore plays and what we do to that type of defense, the Bills could put up 40 on them. They play a heavy blitz/man defense but don't get to the QB very much(think Miami---almost identical...blitz a ton, hope very good corners hold up). #1 in blitz in the NFL but only 11h in pressures and 20th in QB hurries. Allen will torch them if they try this. He has done it all year long against pretty much every team that tried it(Rams, Dolphins, and Seahawks as well as Pittsburgh once we blocked Heyward). We should be really excited about this. Ravens tried this against Mahomes and the Chiefs and he torched them and put up 395 yards passing against them. This a terrible matchup for the Ravens. Edited January 11, 2021 by Big Turk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, jletha said: They also predicted that Biden could win even with a strong polling error in favor of Trump, which is what happened. But some of the win projections in individual states was way off. Why is Wisconsin so hard to poll haha? It's the cheese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Mantis_Toboggan Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 LOL @ the Saints being over 70% to beat Tom Brady (who is now clicking with his THREE all pro caliber WRs) for a third time in one season, at what amounts to a neutral site. Not happening. Time for the Saints to atone, they are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 31 minutes ago, Big Turk said: After looking at the type of defense Baltimore plays and what we do to that type of defense, the Bills could put up 40 on them. They play a heavy blitz/man defense but don't get to the QB very much(think Miami---almost identical...blitz a ton, hope very good corners hold up). #1 in blitz in the NFL but only 11h in pressures and 20th in QB hurries. Allen will torch them if they try this. He has done it all year long against pretty much every team that tried it(Rams, Dolphins, and Seahawks as well as Pittsburgh once we blocked Heyward). We should be really excited about this. Ravens tried this against Mahomes and the Chiefs and he torched them and put up 395 yards passing against them. This a terrible matchup for the Ravens. I hear what you are saying and stylistically the Bills have crushed these sort of defenses, except for the Steelers which limited Buffalo for about 60% of the game. The difference is that the Ravens have two really good man to man corners and the receivers will have to bring their A game especially if they look to provide help to guard Diggs. I am excited about the matchup and I believe we will get the better of them. I also think it is possible that we could put up lots of points but I wouldn't bet on it. It's the playoffs and the Ravens are playing very good D right now. I think we'll probably put up somewhere around 30 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, Magox said: I hear what you are saying and stylistically the Bills have crushed these sort of defenses, except for the Steelers which limited Buffalo for about 60% of the game. The difference is that the Ravens have two really good man to man corners and the receivers will have to bring their A game especially if they look to provide help to guard Diggs. I am excited about the matchup and I believe we will get the better of them. I also think it is possible that we could put up lots of points but I wouldn't bet on it. It's the playoffs and the Ravens are playing very good D right now. I think we'll probably put up somewhere around 30 points. Dolphins have 1st team all pro Xavien Howard and the highest paid CB in the NFL in Byron Jones. They are probably a push in terms of CB's. That isn't going to help them. Rams have Jalen Ramsey and Antonio Williams. Man coverage is almost impossible against deep overs with Allen putting the ball perfectly in stride out in front and on deep comebacks because Allen's arm gets the ball out there o fast the defender literally doesn't even have time to stop and turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Big Turk said: Dolphins have 1st team all pro Xavien Howard and the highest paid CB in the NFL in Byron Jones. They are probably a push in terms of CB's. That isn't going to help them. Rams have Jalen Ramsey and Antonio Williams. Man coverage is almost impossible against deep overs with Allen putting the ball perfectly in stride out in front and on deep comebacks because Allen's arm gets the ball out there o fast the defender literally doesn't even have time to stop and turn around. I get it, you are extremely bullish on the Bills receivers. I'm hopeful but I think this tandem is better than any other tandem we have faced and they are red hot in the playoffs. I also expect them to throw in a few new wrinkles that could give momentary pause to Josh but at the end of the day I think we pull it out with a solid offensive performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, jletha said: They also predicted that Biden could win even with a strong polling error in favor of Trump, which is what happened. But some of the win projections in individual states was way off. Why is Wisconsin so hard to poll haha? A lot of the times its because they keep moving districts imo. Comparing historical data is challenging when the data is covering districts that don't exist in the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 45 minutes ago, Big Turk said: After looking at the type of defense Baltimore plays and what we do to that type of defense, the Bills could put up 40 on them. They play a heavy blitz/man defense but don't get to the QB very much(think Miami---almost identical...blitz a ton, hope very good corners hold up). #1 in blitz in the NFL but only 11h in pressures and 20th in QB hurries. Allen will torch them if they try this. He has done it all year long against pretty much every team that tried it(Rams, Dolphins, and Seahawks as well as Pittsburgh once we blocked Heyward). We should be really excited about this. Ravens tried this against Mahomes and the Chiefs and he torched them and put up 395 yards passing against them. This a terrible matchup for the Ravens. They haven't had all their lineman on the field at the same time much this year. They do now. I think that has kept their numbers down. Make no mistake, they are coming after Josh. They will likely get there. This is the battle Buffalo must win if they want to win the game. I have already ceded the loss of the Bills Dline to their OLine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, wjag said: They haven't had all their lineman on the field at the same time much this year. They do now. I think that has kept their numbers down. Make no mistake, they are coming after Josh. They will likely get there. This is the battle Buffalo must win if they want to win the game. I have already ceded the loss of the Bills Dline to their OLine. I doubt it, at least not to the degree Pittsburgh was. The stats don't back that up. And if they do is it going to matter? Seattle sacked him 7 times and he put up 415 yards and 3 TDs. Bills have blocked well against far better defenses than the Ravens in terms of pass rush. Edited January 11, 2021 by Big Turk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnNord Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 hours ago, SinatraSinger said: If you go to sportsline.com they have the spread at Buffalo -2.5 with the over/under at 50. The simulated score at the moment is Baltimore 25, Buffalo 24. So they are stating that you should bet Baltimore with the spread. It makes sense the advanced analytics between these two teams are pretty even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanSD Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 -4.5 and 65% sounds about right to me. The Bills are a better team that the Ravens. They're not a wildly better team than the Ravens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Who are these 538 people and where do they live ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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