The best run defense is scoring 30+

[DollaBills]

Everyone is scared of the Ravens running attack, but remember, we went 3 and out several times to start the game. The Colts brought their absolute best and played smash mouth football for the duration. Our run defense is a weakness but I think against the Ravens the best defense is going to be lightning fast scoring drives through the air.

 

Go Bills. Unironically the team of destiny

Edited January 11, 2021 by DollaBills

[BillsToast]

Smash-mouth football will lose against a good air attack in the modern game. 

[Thurman#1]

Yes.

 

But can we score 30+?

 

I mean, that was doubtless our game plan against the Colts as well.

[Utah John]

The Colts defense is at least as good as the Ravens', and probably better.

 

And the Colts play great complementary football.  Look at the field position battle they won for most of the first half.  Except for one ill-advised kickoff return by Roberts which pinned the Bills back, all the other poor field position was due to Indy good plays. 

 

I don't think the Ravens are as well-disciplined as the Colts.  They didn't adjust very well against the Steelers, and Pittsburgh was thiiiiiis close to getting back into the game.  The Bills have a far better passing attack than Pittsburgh's, and probably a little better rushing attack (not saying much).  And of course we have the weapon everyone knows about, Josh Allen, but just as important our secret weapon is Brian Daboll, who's probably already sitting up nights coming up with ways to attack the Ravens D based on what worked or didn't work against the Steelers.

[Thurman#1]

I would politely disagree with your contention that the Colts D is as good as the Ravens. The Colts allowed fewer yards and fewer point.

 

Agreed that Daboll is a weapon, but he was I believe on the team last week as well, as was Allen.

 

I'm not concluding we're going to lose, of course. But is this a team we should worry about? Yeah, it is.

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, DollaBills said:

Everyone is scared of the Ravens running attack, but remember, we went 3 and out several times to start the game. The Colts brought their absolute best and played smash mouth football for the duration. Our run defense is a weakness but I think against the Ravens the best defense is going to be lightning fast scoring drives through the air.

 

Go Bills. Unironically the team of destiny

Not everyone is afraid of the Ravens or any other team’s running game.  They are the best, but we also have the #2 offense in the league in yards, and pts.  We also have the #3 passing game.  For the season they had 1700 more rushing yards, yet we had in excess of 2000 more passing yards.  We strike early and fast like normal and they play from behind.  We cover the interior of the field as Jackson can’t throw outside the hash lines to save his life.

 

I absolutely respect their team and will be a test, but I’m not afraid of them or the Chiefs.  Again, I respect both of them.  Our team matches up the best against the Chiefs in the AFC.

[CSBill]

One simple formula for winning this game: Keep Jackson's running under control. I don't have a magic number, but I would say less than 75 yards. And especially on the scrambles--that is were he really kills teams. Contain the designed runs and the Raven's run game (less than 175 ???), and don't let him go off on long scramble plays. .... That's all 😁

[HOUSE]

Who is Smash Mouth and why must we play him ?

[maryland-bills-fan]

Jackson is something that you can not completely control. We have to score a lot of points and try to force him to beat us with his passing. Often he is off mark. They now also have a very good and fast to-the-corner running back Dobbins. . We could have drafted him instead of Epenesa- the Ravens drafted him on the very next pick. ((((2020 Walter football take on him: 

J.K. Dobbins*, RB, Ohio State
Height: 5-9. Weight: 210. Arm: 29.75. Hand: 9.5.
Projected 40 Time: 4.50.
Projected Round (2020): 2-3.
4/21/20: Dobbins averaged 6.7 yards per carry in 2019 for 2,003 yards with 21 touchdowns. He had 23 receptions for 247 yards and two touchdowns as well. Dobbins fumbled against Florida Atlantic, Penn State and Michigan. He was a tough runner for Ohio State, showing starting ability for the NFL with size, strength, the ability to run through contact, and quickness to rip off chunk runs.

8/17/19: Dobbins averaged 4.6 yards per carry in 2018 for 1,053 yards with 10 touchdowns. He also made 26 receptions for 263 yards. Mike Weber was supposed to be the next star running back at Ohio State in 2017, but an injury slowed him down to start the season. The Buckeyes turned to Dobbins and never looked back, as the freshman dominated the competition. Dobbins averaged 7.2 yards per carry for 1,403 yards with seven touchdowns on the year. He also had 22 receptions for 135 yards and a touchdown. Dobbins has a fast first-step and is dangerous to break off long runs on any carry.

 

This will require good setting of the edge and players aware of reverse type plays.  Our outside game is limited to jet sweeps.  Moss ran a 4.65, Singletary a 4.66 versus his 4.50. They have this extra weapon and will use it. I'm looking at Nagee Harris of the Tide for the 2021 draft. 4.53, 6-2 230 and a good protection blocker.

 

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Utah John said:

The Colts defense is at least as good as the Ravens', and probably better.

 

And the Colts play great complementary football.  Look at the field position battle they won for most of the first half.  Except for one ill-advised kickoff return by Roberts which pinned the Bills back, all the other poor field position was due to Indy good plays. 

 

I don't think the Ravens are as well-disciplined as the Colts.  They didn't adjust very well against the Steelers, and Pittsburgh was thiiiiiis close to getting back into the game.  The Bills have a far better passing attack than Pittsburgh's, and probably a little better rushing attack (not saying much).  And of course we have the weapon everyone knows about, Josh Allen, but just as important our secret weapon is Brian Daboll, who's probably already sitting up nights coming up with ways to attack the Ravens D based on what worked or didn't work against the Steelers.

 

Ravens ranked 1 spot ahead of the Colts D. I have a feeling they will try and play man with their good corners and get torched by Allen when he makes off schedule plays ans our receivers come uncovered.

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Jackson is something that you can not completely control. We have to score a lot of points and try to force him to beat us with his passing. Often he is off mark. They now also have a very good and fast to-the-corner running back Dobbins. . We could have drafted him instead of Epenesa- the Ravens drafted him on the very next pick. ((((2020 Walter football take on him: 

J.K. Dobbins*, RB, Ohio State
Height: 5-9. Weight: 210. Arm: 29.75. Hand: 9.5.
Projected 40 Time: 4.50.
Projected Round (2020): 2-3.
4/21/20: Dobbins averaged 6.7 yards per carry in 2019 for 2,003 yards with 21 touchdowns. He had 23 receptions for 247 yards and two touchdowns as well. Dobbins fumbled against Florida Atlantic, Penn State and Michigan. He was a tough runner for Ohio State, showing starting ability for the NFL with size, strength, the ability to run through contact, and quickness to rip off chunk runs.

8/17/19: Dobbins averaged 4.6 yards per carry in 2018 for 1,053 yards with 10 touchdowns. He also made 26 receptions for 263 yards. Mike Weber was supposed to be the next star running back at Ohio State in 2017, but an injury slowed him down to start the season. The Buckeyes turned to Dobbins and never looked back, as the freshman dominated the competition. Dobbins averaged 7.2 yards per carry for 1,403 yards with seven touchdowns on the year. He also had 22 receptions for 135 yards and a touchdown. Dobbins has a fast first-step and is dangerous to break off long runs on any carry.

 

This will require good setting of the edge and players aware of reverse type plays.  Our outside game is limited to jet sweeps.  Moss ran a 4.65, Singletary a 4.66 versus his 4.50. They have this extra weapon and will use it. I'm looking at Nagee Harris of the Tide for the 2021 draft. 4.53, 6-2 230 and a good protection blocker.

 

 

The Ravens scored 20 points against a very bad Tennessee defense yesterday.

[BigPappy]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

I would politely disagree with your contention that the Colts D is as good as the Ravens. The Colts allowed fewer yards and fewer point.

 

Agreed that Daboll is a weapon, but he was I believe on the team last week as well, as was Allen.

 

I'm not concluding we're going to lose, of course. But is this a team we should worry about? Yeah, it is.

  It's the playoffs, every team should be at the very least a concern if not a worry. They are in the playoffs for a reason.... they were good enough to get there. To not have some level of concern, in my view; would be foolish.

  Look at last nights Steelers vs Browns game as a prime example. The Browns weren't even allowed to practice until Friday due to COVID. I thought for sure they would walk into Pittsburg and get their a$$e$ absolutely handed to them and get completely trounced by the Steelers. IT was 28-0 at the end of the 1st quarter Browns. I was like..... 😲 holy shiz-nit

 

 

2 hours ago, CSBill said:

One simple formula for winning this game: Keep Jackson's running under control. I don't have a magic number, but I would say less than 75 yards. And especially on the scrambles--that is were he really kills teams. Contain the designed runs and the Raven's run game (less than 175 ???), and don't let him go off on long scramble plays. .... That's all 😁

  So basically what we did last year to them, except this year we have an offense that can pretty much score at will? We held Jackson to 40 yards rushing on 11 attempts in that game.

[Buffalo Ballin]

The Ravens is the BEST Defense we're about to face.

 

Last week, I had us at 85% chance of winning against the Colts. We did it.

 

Currently, I give us a 60% chance of beating the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore defense had their way with Derrick Henry, who had over 2000 yards and 21 touchdowns, which is a league MVP caliber season. Ravens made him look like a scrub. On Titan's turf.

 

If it's snowing then that favors us BIG TIME. If it's snowing then I increase our chances back up to 85%.

 

• Lamar Jackson HAS to run. There's no other way. He's more than 50% of their offense. They know it. We know it. Don't let him go crazy running. When he does that wildcat crap, obviously Lamar will run the ball. Obviously, keep an eye on Dobbins.
• Ravens' passing offense is weak. Been weak all year. Weak against Titans last Sunday. Titans' defense sucks and Lamar barely threw the ball against that abysmal defense. Our defense better not repeat our performance against the Colts. When Lamar drops back to pass, most likely he's gonna run. Not throw. Especially if it's snowing.
• Watch their TE Mark Andrews. We got a double dose from the Colts. We should show that we learned from that.
• Josh Allen cannot get hurt. Ravens will look to knock him out of the game. Just slide or run out of bounds. Don't try to be a hero. When he's about to get sacked, just go down.
• No fumbles on our side.
• Ravens will try to eat the clock. We have to eat the clock. No rush to score. Let Lamar and the Ravens offense freeze up on the sidelines.
• Do NOT punt on 4th and 1 near the red zone. It's outdated thinking. Just go for it or kick a field goal. That's it. No punting. Titans and Steelers recently paid the price for that old school philosophy of field advantage.
• Lastly, let Josh Allen air it out with his cannon arm. 50+ pass attempts. Just don't go to Diggs early in the game. Don't telegraph that. Save Diggs for the 2nd half. Target Beasley, Davis, MacKenzie, Knox, John Brown, and Singletary in the first half. Keep Ravens thinking.

 

This is why we fought all season to get home field despite Steelers, Titans, Seahawks, and Washington Generics not protecting their sh*t. I'm sure some fans will be at the game just like last Saturday's game. That's good enough. There's psychological comfort knowing that we do not have to travel. We're comfortable in our conditions and the field.

[Buffalo Boy]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yes.

 

But can we score 30+?

 

I mean, that was doubtless our game plan against the Colts as well.

Need to just keep throwing. Even our “ run game” should be dump offs, shovel passes and pitchouts.

We can not handcuff Josh, especially at the start of the game. 
Also hoping for Brown to get back into form with multiple big catches for us.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

McD may have to give up on his "Big Nickel" approach to defense.  People are apoplectic over the Bills run defense but we all need to remember that they play the vast majority of plays with five DB's on the field.  In many instances they stay in that defense even when they are facing two and three tight end sets. Taron Johnson plays tough but is over matched when taking on large run blockers.  I expect to see more of A.J. on the field for first and second downs.

[Drew21PA]

4 hours ago, BillsToast said:

Smash-mouth football will lose against a good air attack in the modern game. 

This

 

how many times over the years did we have a killer defense and amazing running attack and just not compete

 

im really hoping this is the case 

[prissythecat]

4 hours ago, BillsToast said:

Smash-mouth football will lose against a good air attack in the modern game. 

 

Lol.  What kind of football does Cleveland play?  How about LA Rams?

[Royale with Cheese]

I think if we can focus on stopping the run, we can.  Henry, Jacobs and Taylor didn't have great days against us.

 

We shot ourselves in the foot several times against the Titans and our defense was even poorer back then.

 

Taylor we mostly held in check but then allowed two gigantic runs vs against Hines.

 

I expect the Ravens to get their 190 in rushing yards but as long as we can keep Lamar from beating us with his arm....I think we can hold them to 24 and under.

1 minute ago, prissythecat said:

 

Lol.  What kind of football does Cleveland play?  How about LA Rams?

 

How about the Bills?  How about the Chiefs?  How about the Packers?

[H2o]

Gap integrity and discipline will be the key. We can't have Addison taking bad angles because we know what that will lead to with Jackson. I expect to see Klein more in this game coming up. When Klein isn't in there, I wouldn't be surprise to see Neal on the field acting more in a LB role. The game plan is going to be contain Jackson and stop the run. Last year we did exceptionally well at this outside of one busted coverage which allowed Hurst to take one 60+ to the house. We held the Ravens to their lowest total yardage output of the year. Jackson only had 185 total yards, with 40 of that coming on the ground in his lowest total output of the year. We were in that game, even with last year's version of Josh, until the final drive where John Brown ran a lazy route which allowed Peters to break up a pass on 4th down to seal it for them. I do expect our fortunes to be different this go around.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup?gameId=401127868

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=401127868

 

[mjt328]

On Saturday, I feel like the Bills fell into Frank Reich's trap, and the Colts forced us to play their game instead of ours.

Our big advantage over the Colts was the explosive passing game vs. their below-average secondary.  No way I could see them matching up well against Josh Allen and our receivers.  At the same time, the Colts advantage was along the offensive/defensive lines and controlling the line of scrimmage.  

 

The key to the Wild Card game was always going to be whether the Bills could build an early lead, and force the Colts into a heavy passing attack.  The longer the game was close, the better it would be for Indianapolis.  We never pulled ahead by a decent margin (24-10) until the early 4th Quarter, and then our defense immediately broke down and let them right back into the game.  

 

Over this week, our coaching staff needs to determine WHY this happened.  Was it the poor field position?  Was it the injuries to our receivers?  Did our gameplan focus too much on the run game?  Did we just fail to execute?  Not to say that our offense played poorly.  But why did it take so long for things to start clicking?

 

Because the Ravens present a very similar situation.  The path to victory is by getting up early, and forcing them into a pass-heavy approach.  If they keep this game in the 10-point or less range, it plays to their strengths.

 

[prissythecat]

11 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I think if we can focus on stopping the run, we can.  Henry, Jacobs and Taylor didn't have great days against us.

 

We shot ourselves in the foot several times against the Titans and our defense was even poorer back then.

 

Taylor we mostly held in check but then allowed two gigantic runs vs against Hines.

 

I expect the Ravens to get their 190 in rushing yards but as long as we can keep Lamar from beating us with his arm....I think we can hold them to 24 and under.

 

How about the Bills?  How about the Chiefs?  How about the Packers?

 

How is your response relevant?  The post I was responding to claims that smash mouth football always loses to pass heavy offenses.  It clearly doesn't

[CEN-CAL17]

4 hours ago, DollaBills said:

Everyone is scared of the Ravens running attack, but remember, we went 3 and out several times to start the game. The Colts brought their absolute best and played smash mouth football for the duration. Our run defense is a weakness but I think against the Ravens the best defense is going to be lightning fast scoring drives through the air.

 

Go Bills. Unironically the team of destiny

Read option usually flows in the direction opposite the RB. Bills will have a plan in place. GAP integrity!!!!  Bring them on!!!!

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

 

How is your response relevant?  The post I was responding to claims that smash mouth football always loses to pass heavy offenses.  It clearly doesn't

 

I think you took his statement too literal.  Yes, it doesn't win 100% of the time but the vast majority of the time, the passing offense wins.

 

[Tatonka68]

Special Teams cannot give Allen such bad field position like they did in the 1st half against the Colts. 

[Big Turk]

52 minutes ago, BigPappy said:

  It's the playoffs, every team should be at the very least a concern if not a worry. They are in the playoffs for a reason.... they were good enough to get there. To not have some level of concern, in my view; would be foolish.

  Look at last nights Steelers vs Browns game as a prime example. The Browns weren't even allowed to practice until Friday due to COVID. I thought for sure they would walk into Pittsburg and get their a$$e$ absolutely handed to them and get completely trounced by the Steelers. IT was 28-0 at the end of the 1st quarter Browns. I was like..... 😲 holy shiz-nit

 

 

  So basically what we did last year to them, except this year we have an offense that can pretty much score at will? We held Jackson to 40 yards rushing on 11 attempts in that game.

 

Honestly could there be something to this not practicing thing? Tennessee destroyed us under similar circumstances this year.

[junior]

3 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Special Teams cannot give Allen such bad field position like they did in the 1st half against the Colts. 

 

Yup. Bad field position to start --> 3 and outs --> defense being on the field too much --> fatigu --> awful 4Q defense

[SectionC3]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Jackson is something that you can not completely control. We have to score a lot of points and try to force him to beat us with his passing. Often he is off mark. They now also have a very good and fast to-the-corner running back Dobbins. . We could have drafted him instead of Epenesa- the Ravens drafted him on the very next pick. ((((2020 Walter football take on him: 

J.K. Dobbins*, RB, Ohio State
Height: 5-9. Weight: 210. Arm: 29.75. Hand: 9.5.
Projected 40 Time: 4.50.
Projected Round (2020): 2-3.
4/21/20: Dobbins averaged 6.7 yards per carry in 2019 for 2,003 yards with 21 touchdowns. He had 23 receptions for 247 yards and two touchdowns as well. Dobbins fumbled against Florida Atlantic, Penn State and Michigan. He was a tough runner for Ohio State, showing starting ability for the NFL with size, strength, the ability to run through contact, and quickness to rip off chunk runs.

8/17/19: Dobbins averaged 4.6 yards per carry in 2018 for 1,053 yards with 10 touchdowns. He also made 26 receptions for 263 yards. Mike Weber was supposed to be the next star running back at Ohio State in 2017, but an injury slowed him down to start the season. The Buckeyes turned to Dobbins and never looked back, as the freshman dominated the competition. Dobbins averaged 7.2 yards per carry for 1,403 yards with seven touchdowns on the year. He also had 22 receptions for 135 yards and a touchdown. Dobbins has a fast first-step and is dangerous to break off long runs on any carry.

 

This will require good setting of the edge and players aware of reverse type plays.  Our outside game is limited to jet sweeps.  Moss ran a 4.65, Singletary a 4.66 versus his 4.50. They have this extra weapon and will use it. I'm looking at Nagee Harris of the Tide for the 2021 draft. 4.53, 6-2 230 and a good protection blocker.

 

 

Thought about this earlier today.  Jackson is not an impressive passer.  Beat us on a filthy throw on a corner route to TE last year.  But it was pretty lucky, in my view, given his overall body of work.  This might be a game where Trent Murphy is in for Epenesa and sees meaningful time.  May also see Dodson active in Gililam’s spot - a little extra speed at LB just in case.   Key to victory = defensive discipline + what for us has become our average offensive performance.  

[dlonce]

Tough game. Playoffs are difficult.

It sure looked like the coaches outsmarted themselves.

 

Daboll reverted to early season offense attempting to get the Colts out of their defensive plan. Didn’t work.

Skip the Allen keepers and do what brought you here.

 

The Ravens will run. Running may keep the games close, passing and no turnovers is what will win this game.

[BarleyNY]

Make Lamar be a QB.  He’s a dynamic runner but a backup level passer.  Clog the middle to make him throw to the sidelines and put defenders in his way if he runs.  Seal those edges on pass rush and run defense.  The Titans did not contain the edges and it cost them the game. When Lamar does run the ball make him pay.  Teams really haven’t been able to do that because he’s so elusive but it’s coming.

[peterpan]

Gotta play a ton of zone coverage.  And I wouldn't rush too many.  Gotta have your second level players with eyes in the backfield, and cover guys up.  Let Jackson throw into tight windows and be ready to pounch once he scrambles.  

 

Man coverage and he escapes the pocket for big gains. 

[DallasMac]

The weather is really what worries me.  If its a cold snowy game I think the Bills will struggle.  They just aren't built that way IMO.

[prissythecat]

37 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I think you took his statement too literal.  Yes, it doesn't win 100% of the time but the vast majority of the time, the passing offense wins.

 

 

I'm cool with that clarification.   Passing is the way to go  if a team wants to go far

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, DallasMac said:

The weather is really what worries me.  If its a cold snowy game I think the Bills will struggle.  They just aren't built that way IMO.

 

It doesn't look like it's going to be a big storm with a lot of accumulation. 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

36 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Honestly could there be something to this not practicing thing? Tennessee destroyed us under similar circumstances this year.

I don't think there's an advantage gained from not practicing, but there is ABSOLUTELY an advantage gained from pulling together amid adversity when nobody believes in you -- and the other team lets up a little because they think the game will be easier. People overlook psychology in sports so much.

[Malazan]

5 hours ago, DollaBills said:

Everyone is scared of the Ravens running attack, but remember, we went 3 and out several times to start the game. The Colts brought their absolute best and played smash mouth football for the duration. Our run defense is a weakness but I think against the Ravens the best defense is going to be lightning fast scoring drives through the air.

 

Go Bills. Unironically the team of destiny

 

Well, it doesn't need to be lightning quick and it's better if the drives take some time. After special teams, the biggest problem was the Bills unusual adherence to the running game that cost them downs and yards. Even if they were bringing the pressure, I would have preferred some short dump off plays. Sustain a couple of those drives, get better field position and let your defense rest a bit and while I don't think it would have been major, it would have made a difference for the defense. 

 

This Bills team can't afford to have many 3 and outs. The defense is not what it was last year and even if they don't get points, they need to sustain drives on offense. 

[BobChalmers]

3 hours ago, BigPappy said:

  So basically what we did last year to them, except this year we have an offense that can pretty much score at will? We held Jackson to 40 yards rushing on 11 attempts in that game.

 

I've been thinking about this rematch ever since the Bills acquired Diggs.  Coming from Maryland, the Ravens game last year was the first for my adult son and the first Bills game I'd made it to in over a decade.  Seen replays since - it's burned into me.

 

The Bills struggled on offense through most of the game, but tying the game was still within reach at the end and came down to a play that failed on Brown's inability to get open on Marcus Peters.

 

I believe Diggs can torch Peters at least as easily as he worked over Ramsey.

 

The Bills defense isn't quite what they were last year, but neither is the Ravens D, and Allen is an entirely different QB.  I am in no way taking anything for granted, and the Bills really need to figure out how to cover TEs but they CAN win this, potentially even going away.

Edited January 11, 2021 by BobChalmers

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

McD may have to give up on his "Big Nickel" approach to defense.  People are apoplectic over the Bills run defense but we all need to remember that they play the vast majority of plays with five DB's on the field.  In many instances they stay in that defense even when they are facing two and three tight end sets. Taron Johnson plays tough but is over matched when taking on large run blockers.  I expect to see more of A.J. on the field for first and second downs.

Which one? Espensa or Klein? I'll hang-up and listen...

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

18 hours ago, Houston's #1 Bills Fan said:

Which one? Espensa or Klein? I'll hang-up and listen...

Klein

[Hebert19]

On 1/11/2021 at 4:47 AM, Thurman#1 said:

Yes.

 

But can we score 30+?

 

I mean, that was doubtless our game plan against the Colts as well.

Minus a couple early uncharacteristic drops and a long sack fumble by Allen we easily score 30 

[Thurman#1]

7 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Minus a couple early uncharacteristic drops and a long sack fumble by Allen we easily score 30 

 

 

Yeah, that's the way it works in every game. If you imagine that you played better, then you will imagine that the outcome was better. We (and every team) have some bad plays every game. It's part of the game. We will have some this game too.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Hebert19]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, that's the way it works in every game. If you imagine that you played better, then you will imagine that the outcome was better. We (and every team) have some bad plays every game. It's part of the game. We will have some this game too.

Ya.  Totally.  Just saying take that sack away and we kick a FG there and its 30.  Not like we were a mile off.