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Playoff Matchup Probability


cv05

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I'll never understand the posters who say we should lose any games. It's like you have no understanding of what goes into preparing teams each week to play and win at this level. These guys are playing for their present and future, and are trying to stay in the NFL as long as possible. Besides, losing breeds terrible things.

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15 hours ago, CodeMonkey said:

That is true if there is a point to winning the game like a higher seed.

You don't want him rusty either so a little play is good.  But I'm thinking coaches, players, owners, GM and fans all want this to be a "statement" game on the national stage against a hated team and head coach.  

I think they will start Allen to get him the Yards record (4352 held by Bledsoe).  They will also see if the Steelers are going after the second seed or resting Ben and others.   Will they bring Webb or Fromm from the bench ?

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18 hours ago, stevewin said:

Also energy/momentum/winning attitude entering playoffs - and ask the Titans about how fun it is to travel to cold weather sites this time of year.

 

People also seem to be forgetting the bold above - for an awesomely untouchable unbeatable team the Chiefs have had a lot of games recently they could have lost 

 

image.thumb.png.c3010f227efbff4671635dac321a069e.png

 

 

Bills

 

Week 10 - Loss by  2 points

Week12 - Win  by 10 points

Week13 - Win by  10 ponts

Week14 - Win by  11 points

Week15 - Win by  29 points

Week16 - Win by  29 points

 

all double digit wins after that painstaking loss.

 

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I still contend unless injured, we play the starters at least through the first half.  If the Steelers win and we lose, we go back to the third seed.  It’s not so much about fans, but Sal said yesterday morning, we play keep away from KC until the AFCC game.  We do that and we can beat any other AFC playoff team including the Ravens.  The problem with the Ravens is just one guy, Lamar.  He can be mediocre at times and then explodes with a 30 yard run.  McD is the best though at containing a guy like him.  For the most part, they did that last year with him and Lamar and the Ravens may have won, but it was his worst performance last year until their loss to the Titans.

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2 hours ago, Steve Evans said:

I fixed it. Unless I'm wrong, the only way we play Baltimore in that scenario is if they lose to the Bengals, and that's not happening.

You're wrong.

2 hours ago, Steve Evans said:

I fixed it. Unless I'm wrong, the only way we play Baltimore in that scenario is if they lose to the Bengals, and that's not happening.

If we lose and Baltimore wins, we play Baltimore in 4 of 8 scenarios. That's why we need to win, or the Steelers need to lose. Bills need to play starters long enough to secure win or see that Browns have secured win.

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22 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Does that mean Pitt is conceding the two seed? 

Don't think as nicked up as they are they want to play at Buff in the OP in January.

 

Honestly, what's the difference between playing them in OP in January and playing them in Pittsburgh in January?

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4 hours ago, Steve Evans said:

I'll never understand the posters who say we should lose any games. It's like you have no understanding of what goes into preparing teams each week to play and win at this level. These guys are playing for their present and future, and are trying to stay in the NFL as long as possible. Besides, losing breeds terrible things.

 

Your first thumbs up.   At the elite level, you train, practice and play to win, every day.  Rest some starters, sure.

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So are we Browns fans this week?  Correct me if I'm wrong.  It sounds like if Cleveland wins this weekend, the Bills will play the field of teams (not including Baltimore).  If Pittsburgh wins, we have a good chance to play the Ravens.

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10 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:


this tells me our odds are much better at avoiding Baltimore in the 1st round if we play to win week 17.

The Steelers will be resting starters and also losing. The only scenario we play baltimore if both bills and steelers lose is if baltimore also loses which is not happening.

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32 minutes ago, Process said:

The Steelers will be resting starters and also losing. The only scenario we play baltimore if both bills and steelers lose is if baltimore also loses which is not happening.


I don’t think we can assume that the Steelers are resting starters.  I have seen media speculate on that, but haven’t seen it confirmed yet by the Steelers.

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9 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

pitt likley to rest starters. if that is true they lose to browns.  so down to either colts or browns.  simulator i just did puts bills v colts with browns playing steelers i'd love a pitt 2nd round matchup. 

Why do we think Pittsburgh will rest starters?

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10 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

its been hinted that they might due to not having a bye all year. But with 2 straight home playoff games on the line i cant see it.

I can't see it either. I think they will play to win.

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Tomlin just announced he’s starting Rudolph.

 

A browns win and we win bills have colts. 
 

If browns win and we lose tho, bills play browns round 1.

 

Give me the Browns over the Colts all day every day round 1.

 

SIT THE STARTERS THIS WEEK MCDERMOTT.

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Mason Rudolph playing for the Steelers this week, what a gift for the Browns and hopefully us. Browns can't possibly blow it again this week right?

Just now, McBean said:

Tomlin just announced he’s starting Rudolph.

 

A browns win and we win bills have colts. 
 

If browns win and we lose tho, bills play browns round 1.

 

Give me the Browns over the Colts all day every day round 1.

 

SIT THE STARTERS THIS WEEK MCDERMOTT.

 

Browns or Colts are both really good matchups for the Bills.

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On 12/27/2020 at 6:21 PM, BillsFan130 said:

You would rest the starters with a 2 seed on the line?

 

Im not sure I would. I know it’s not the same as the past with the bye week/packed stadium, but it’s still potentially an extra game at home. 

If a first round bye was at stake, yes, you play the game to win and get the better seed.


Now that that is gone, however, you can make a strong argument to go either way.


Rest the players and know your best players are healthy for the playoffs can be argued to be much more valuable than a seed improved by 1 slot.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

Roethlisberger's knee is terrible, Connor isn't healthy either.  A week off is exactly what they need right now.  I hear what you are saying about momentum and all that but they need the rest more than anything.

Bill Cowher vehemently supported the "rest now" approach on Sunday, during one of the studio segments.

 

He said he knew that if it was him still running the show in Pittsburgh, he would take "being healthy" over fighting for the seeding situation.

 

I would not be surprised whatsoever if he called Tomlin and put in his 2 cents on that; In fact, Tomlin may have called him.

 

Current/former head coaches of the Pittsburgh Steelers are a rather small fraternity!

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, BRH said:


We’ve beaten Aaron Donald, Joey Bosa, and TJ Watt/Cam Heyward.   Bring it. 

For the first time since the K-Gun era, we have two competent tackles, plus Lee Smith is essentially another tackle [guy must weigh 290].  I think last week was a carefully plotted couple of play calls to mess with DC minds.  If we do a max pass rush, and Smith slips out, oops.

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20 hours ago, McBean said:

Tomlin just announced he’s starting Rudolph.

 

A browns win and we win bills have colts. 
 

If browns win and we lose tho, bills play browns round 1.

 

Give me the Browns over the Colts all day every day round 1.

 

SIT THE STARTERS THIS WEEK MCDERMOTT.

What if... the Steelers look better with Rudolph 🥸

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1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:


I thought about that.  The Steelers are to the Browns what the Pats used to be to us.

 

I think Mayfield struggles again and will be a close 17-14 type of finish....not sure who yet.

 

Well, you have to remember, the Browns were without their starting receivers and 2 starting offensive linemen last week thanks to COVID.  If they get those guys back, they will be a very different team this week.

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1 minute ago, Murdox said:

 

Well, you have to remember, the Browns were without their starting receivers and 2 starting offensive linemen last week thanks to COVID.  If they get those guys back, they will be a very different team this week.


The Jets were depleted as well.  They were playing their 3rd and 4th corners, back up safety and Quinnen Williams was out. 
They are 1-13 team using practice squad players.

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