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Black Monday is coming (UPDATE: is here!).....


GunnerBill

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Already out:

Houston Texans - Fired HC/GM Bill O'Brien - Ownership on record as wanting to hire a GM first and then begin a coaching search

Detroit Lions - Fired HC Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn

Atlanta Falcons Fire HC Dann Quin and GM Thomas Dimitroff

Jacksonville Jaguars - Fired GM Dave Caldwell

 

On the brink:

Jacksonville Jaguars - HC Doug Marrone - Battling it out for the #1 draft pick

New York Jets - HC Adam Gase - Battling it out for the #1 draft pick

 

In trouble:

Dallas Cowboys - HC Mike McCarthy - Hard to say here with the QB troubles.  But Jerry does what Jerry does.

Philadelphia Eagles - HC Doug Pederson - Has there been a quicker fall from grace from SB to bust? 

Chicago Bears - HC Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace - Has to include the GM as well. Mitch Trubisky  and Nick Foles and zero run game

Los Angeles Chargers - HC Anthony Lynn - He's just not HC material. 

 

The don't be shocked if:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - HC Bruce Arians - Battling it out with Tom Brady.  One or the other will be their next season

Minnesota Vikings - HC Mike Zimmer - Has  to include the GM as well. dumping Diggs?  Who got screwed there?

 

See comments as to

 

Why they are still there and some random thoughts

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1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

He's had the OC role the entire time in Philly.

 

When they show clips of the Super Bowl, Foles isnt consulting Reich on what play they are going to run. He only talks to Pederson.

When they decided to run the famous trick play, that was all Pederson's idea. Reich wasn't even in that conversation.

 

I believe he’s had the in-game play-calling role the whole time he’s been in Philly.  But there’s a lot of other work on the OC’s plate - the play design, the self-scouting, even deciding how to allocate practice time.  

 

The point is, he decided to go it solo without an important piece most HC have on staff for good reason, even HC who notably call their own plays.  And the juice has not proven the squeeze.

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I have been saying for over a year I’d avoid Andy Reid’s offensive coordinators. While both Nagy and Pederson started out sizzling hot with their dynamic offenses they have zero ability to adjust once defenses figure out the scheme. Nagy should of been fired immediately after he fired his offensive staff last offseason trying to scapegoat them. 
Andy Reid gives them a playbook as a parting gift and once that playbook runs its course both coaches fell apart (joke) You can’t be an offensive coach then have defense be decent carrying the team with putrid offenses for multiple years 

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12 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

See comments as to

 

Why they are still there and some random thoughts

In Minnesota, that Diggs trade worked out very well. Justin Jefferson has been a revelation. He’s not Diggs level this year, but he has been the best producing rookie WR and looking like a great wr long-term. Minny is the oddest team who can look like contenders one week and irrelevant the next.

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6 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

I have been saying for over a year I’d avoid Andy Reid’s offensive coordinators. While both Nagy and Pederson started out sizzling hot with their dynamic offenses they have zero ability to adjust once defenses figure out the scheme. Nagy should of been fired immediately after he fired his offensive staff last offseason trying to scapegoat them. 
Andy Reid gives them a playbook as a parting gift and once that playbook runs its course both coaches fell apart (joke) You can’t be an offensive coach then have defense be decent carrying the team with putrid offenses for multiple years 

I am pretty sure that teams will accept a Super Bowl win with that playbook like the Iggles did. Better to burn out than it is to rust?

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1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

To be fair, I think Daboll has lost a couple lbs.

I heard Dabs can still run quickly....

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29 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No.  No NO no NOOOOOOOO even suggesting that should force you to turn in your “Knowledgeable Fan” card.  Drop and give me 20.  Never EVER touch that part of the doggie again.

 

Just think about it for a minute.  As OC, the man managed to make Case Keenum and Nick Foles then Case Keenum and Jared Goff look totally incompetent.  Not that the first two are great QB, but they can both give you quality play in the right system.  The following year Keenum and Foles were contending for the NFC Championship, Foles won the Super Bowl.  The following year Goff looked great and the Rams went to the Super Bowl.

 

That’s just too much smoke for there not to be a smoldering fire of epic “way out of his depth as OC” there.  

 

Even look at our Bills TE room - penalties, undisciplined play, Knox and Kroft have both underperformed expectations, is that a good resume for promotion?  Not if McDermott wants to be taken seriously on the “performance earns opportunities” front.

 

 

Haha. I wasn't advocating for promoting him. Just saying he is the guy on the staff who has done it before. He hasn't had a queue of suitors lining up to steal him away from the Bills tight end room.

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I just don't see Doug Pederson going. Not only did he win a SB, he has been in the playoffs three straight seasons. They won a playoff game in 2018 and got screwed last season because of Clowney's kill shot on Wentz (and Wentz played well down the stretch last season). I have to think a good head coach is allowed one down season by any sensible owner. 

 

Re McCarthy, he has been terrible, but on top of the game day stuff, his hiring of a tired retread for DC speaks of an inability to build a good staff. Nolan has been terrible and looks like a guy just cashing a paycheck now.  

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I believe he’s had the in-game play-calling role the whole time he’s been in Philly.  But there’s a lot of other work on the OC’s plate - the play design, the self-scouting, even deciding how to allocate practice time.  

 

The point is, he decided to go it solo without an important piece most HC have on staff for good reason, even HC who notably call their own plays.  And the juice has not proven the squeeze.

Kinda disagree with the gist of what you are saying here. The Eagles were actually pretty good the last two seasons and this year have suffered a truly crazy number of o-line injuries. Their skill players are bad too, and they've also been decimated by injuries (Ertz, DeSean Jackson, and a hobbled and mostly absent Jeffries). It's such a bad personnel situation that I don't think any coach can fix it. They line can't block and the receivers can't separate.  

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1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Daboll and Patricia would make the fattest HC and Coordinator combo in the history of the NFL.  They need to hire Freddie Kitchens as OC and they will cause a gravitational pull.

Another lost Bills opportunity. A poorly timed (temporary; apparently undone in the most heartwarming display of

brotherly love in history; if you are cursed to be fat for life, I will walk with you to the buffet line till death do us part) gastric bypass by Rex is the only thing standing between the Ryan boys and NFL immortality. 

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We’ve gotten this far and no mention of Vic Fangio?

Accomplishments:

- perhaps the worst in-game decision maker

in the NFL. 

- somehow allowed all 4 (count ‘em ... 4!) QBs into the same room without masks, resulting in 13 yards passing with 2 INTs. This is after he was fined 100K for not wearing a mask on the sidelines. It is common for loudmouth fans to say things like “I could have done better” when of course they never

could. But last Sunday I am 100% confident that I could have done better. I would have taken the shotgun snap, stepped 1 yard forward, and immediately fallen down before risking getting touched by a 300 lb defensive

lineman. And that would have been better

than what that poor practice squad WR kid did on Sunday. 
Vic is toast. I see the old in-season firing happening before the Bills game in Denver. Too bad. 

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

So finally..... who are the hot candidates? I'm going to leave the college guys as I've seen lots of names banded about - Brian Kelly, Lincoln Riley, Ryan Day etc but I think this would be a strange year for a coach to leave college for the NFL with all the uncertainties around what the next offseason programme will look like and where the virus will be. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Excellent work,  thanks for the info.:thumbsup: 

 

I think 8 is always the over under for HC firings.  

 

Having Patricia as DC would help Daboll in the same way that having Gus Bradley helped Anthony Lynn.  If you are going to hire an unknown like Daboll who has been fired from 3 coordinating jobs in the NFL you really need him to bring a staff you can sell to the fans.  

 

But I think that there will be somewhat surprising retread hires as well so Daboll is far from a lock for a HC job.

 

I do think that the situation is more ripe than ever for college coaches to jump though too.

 

 A lot of these college programs are losing epic dollars this season and the chaos in college football has to be maddening for a HC.    I suspect more than a few major college HC's have been asked to forego payments or take salary cuts........and they are working as hard as ever.  The NFL is a steady ship by comparison.   

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

About this time of year I like to look at where we stand on the coaching carousel. It has spun a few times already this season with three teams clearing house before week 13..... and the Jaguars taking the first step to what appears to be a total house cleaning there too. It will be a few years since we have had four teams that are starting over at both HC and GM spots with hard resets. So here is a reminder on where we are and a look at where we might be.....

 

Already out:

Houston Texans - Fired HC/GM Bill O'Brien - Ownership on record as wanting to hire a GM first and then begin a coaching search

Detroit Lions - Fired HC Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn

Atlanta Falcons Fire HC Dann Quin and GM Thomas Dimitroff

Jacksonville Jaguars - Fired GM Dave Caldwell

 

On the brink:

Jacksonville Jaguars - HC Doug Marrone

New York Jets - HC Adam Gase

 

In trouble:

Dallas Cowboys - HC Mike McCarthy

Philadelphia Eagles - HC Doug Pederson

Chicago Bears - HC Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace

Los Angeles Chargers - HC Anthony Lynn

 

The don't be shocked if:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - HC Bruce Arians

Minnesota Vikings - HC Mike Zimmer

 

 

I

 

 

 

 

I don't think the Jets GM is completely safe.

 

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8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I just don't see Doug Pederson going. Not only did he win a SB, he has been in the playoffs three straight seasons. They won a playoff game in 2018 and got screwed last season because of Clowney's kill shot on Wentz (and Wentz played well down the stretch last season). I have to think a good head coach is allowed one down season by any sensible owner. 

 

Re McCarthy, he has been terrible, but on top of the game day stuff, his hiring of a tired retread for DC speaks of an inability to build a good staff. Nolan has been terrible and looks like a guy just cashing a paycheck now.  

Kinda disagree with the gist of what you are saying here. The Eagles were actually pretty good the last two seasons and this year have suffered a truly crazy number of o-line injuries. Their skill players are bad too, and they've also been decimated by injuries (Ertz, DeSean Jackson, and a hobbled and mostly absent Jeffries). It's such a bad personnel situation that I don't think any coach can fix it. They line can't block and the receivers can't separate.  

 

While I agree there is a lot of truth in this I don't buy that it is just the line can't block and the receivers can't separate. Wentz also can't throw. His mechanics are a mess and his throwing motion looks to me like a golfer with the yips. The regression is startling and some of that falls squarely at Pederson's door. 

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Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

While I agree there is a lot of truth in this I don't buy that it is just the line can't block and the receivers can't separate. Wentz also can't throw. His mechanics are a mess and his throwing motion looks to me like a golfer with the yips. The regression is startling and some of that falls squarely at Pederson's door. 

He has the yips because the line can't block and the receivers can't separate. He's missing his go-to guy in Ertz too, and his cast of pass-catchers right now is a bunch of nobodies. I doubt he has much trust in any of them except for Goeddert, who is clearly inferior to Ertz.  

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1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

He has the yips because the line can't block and the receivers can't separate. He's missing his go-to guy in Ertz too, and his cast of pass-catchers right now is a bunch of nobodies. I doubt he has much trust in any of them except for Goeddert, who is clearly inferior to Ertz.  

Goedert is definitely not CLEARLY inferior to Ertz. Every time he has been healthy, he has been excellent. I would take him on the Bills every day.

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Just now, MiltonWaddams said:

Goedert is definitely not CLEARLY inferior to Ertz. Every time he has been healthy, he has been excellent. I would take him on the Bills every day.

Ertz when healthy is a top-five TE. Kelce and Kittle are better, but I can't really think of anyone else right now who is better. Goedert is a mid-to-low-end NFL starter, but you're right -- he'd definitely start for the Bills.  He's not the difference maker that Ertz is, however. 

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16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He has the yips because the line can't block and the receivers can't separate. He's missing his go-to guy in Ertz too, and his cast of pass-catchers right now is a bunch of nobodies. I doubt he has much trust in any of them except for Goeddert, who is clearly inferior to Ertz.  

 

I don't buy that it excuses Wentz. I think some of it is just him. He has fallen to bits. I think you put him behind the Colts oline and give him the Steelers receivers right now and he'd still look a mess. Yes, the Eagles have been hit with injuries. But their Quarterback has regressed, and regressed badly.

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17 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He has the yips because the line can't block and the receivers can't separate. He's missing his go-to guy in Ertz too, and his cast of pass-catchers right now is a bunch of nobodies. I doubt he has much trust in any of them except for Goeddert, who is clearly inferior to Ertz.  

I think if that happened to us we would see hero Josh a lot more and all the issues that come with that. Hopefully in a couple years Josh will be able to leave that behind for good.

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3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Daboll and Patricia would make the fattest HC and Coordinator combo in the history of the NFL.  They need to hire Freddie Kitchens as OC and they will cause a gravitational pull.

 

You sure?

 

 

20201202_130806.jpg

Edited by DJB
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3 hours ago, golfball323 said:

Great stuff. Thanks.

 

If we lose Daboll, do we think that there is an arrangement to keep his system in place with an in house promotion? Or do we go elsewhere?

I am guessing Dorsey  Just don't bring back Nate Hackett....he is screwing up the Pack right now.

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2 hours ago, MiltonWaddams said:

I am pretty sure that teams will accept a Super Bowl win with that playbook like the Iggles did. Better to burn out than it is to rust?

100% I would take it, but you still run the risk of that first year lighting the league on fire like Nagy only to stumble to the bottom. 

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Pete Carroll, Bruce Arians, Vic Fangio and Andy Reid top my "don't be surprised" list.  Mostly because of their age.  Carroll will be 70, Arians will be 69 with health issues, and Fangio will be 69 and looks completely miserable.  Andy Reid, if he wins another SB, that might be enough for him and KC has the heir apparent in Bieniemy.  

 

My dark horse is Matt Nagy.  I think Chicago might do some deep cleaning.  It's not working there.  

 

 

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5 hours ago, warrior9 said:

I think Mike McCarthy is and has been one of the worst head coaches in the NFL over 13-15 years but him being in trouble just isn't fair, really. I'd say there is next to 0% chance he isn't back next year.

 

Injuries to Dak, along the offensive line, and defense just can't be overcame. His in game coaching is still abysmal, though.

 

The fact that Anthony Lynn still has a job surprises me.

 

Mike Zimmer won't be let go. I just can't see that happening. 

The talk in LA is because of Herbert, you might be able to lure a big name like Urban Meyer rather than settle for a mediocre coordinator. I would stick Lynn closer to brink then trouble.

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3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

Excellent work,  thanks for the info.:thumbsup: 

 

I think 8 is always the over under for HC firings.  

 

Having Patricia as DC would help Daboll in the same way that having Gus Bradley helped Anthony Lynn.  If you are going to hire an unknown like Daboll who has been fired from 3 coordinating jobs in the NFL you really need him to bring a staff you can sell to the fans.  

 

But I think that there will be somewhat surprising retread hires as well so Daboll is far from a lock for a HC job.

 

I do think that the situation is more ripe than ever for college coaches to jump though too.

 

 A lot of these college programs are losing epic dollars this season and the chaos in college football has to be maddening for a HC.    I suspect more than a few major college HC's have been asked to forego payments or take salary cuts........and they are working as hard as ever.  The NFL is a steady ship by comparison.   

 

Yea it is a good point on the college guys. I hadn't thought of it like that. I was thinking hard circumstances in which to establish your credibility with a bunch of grizzled NFL pros who don't need to listen to some jumped up college coach if there are not OTAs etc but you are right if the alternative is a programme losing money and not sure to pay your salary maybe it is the lesser of two evils? 

 

I definitely think there will be a retread or two. 100% and it might be a really surprising one like Jason Garrett or somebody. Spags is another one that would surprise but not be a total shock. The last two years there has been the Zack Taylor / Joe Judge "Who?" moment as well. 

 

Agree Daboll is not a lock. I think he is a lock for interviews. He is not a lock to get a job. If the Patricia info is right it definitely gives his candidacy a bit of additional credibility. I think the closest to a lock there might be Saleh.

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1 hour ago, dpberr said:

Pete Carroll, Bruce Arians, Vic Fangio and Andy Reid top my "don't be surprised" list.  Mostly because of their age.  Carroll will be 70, Arians will be 69 with health issues, and Fangio will be 69 and looks completely miserable.  Andy Reid, if he wins another SB, that might be enough for him and KC has the heir apparent in Bieniemy.  

 

My dark horse is Matt Nagy.  I think Chicago might do some deep cleaning.  It's not working there.  

 

 

Fangio may look older, but the truth is he just turned 62 wrote the start of the season....

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8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea it is a good point on the college guys. I hadn't thought of it like that. I was thinking hard circumstances in which to establish your credibility with a bunch of grizzled NFL pros who don't need to listen to some jumped up college coach if there are not OTAs etc but you are right if the alternative is a programme losing money and not sure to pay your salary maybe it is the lesser of two evils? 

 

I definitely think there will be a retread or two. 100% and it might be a really surprising one like Jason Garrett or somebody. Spags is another one that would surprise but not be a total shock. The last two years there has been the Zack Taylor / Joe Judge "Who?" moment as well. 

 

Agree Daboll is not a lock. I think he is a lock for interviews. He is not a lock to get a job. If the Patricia info is right it definitely gives his candidacy a bit of additional credibility. I think the closest to a lock there might be Saleh.

 

 

Dallas should definitely fire McCarthy.......that hire was inexplicable, IMO............then they should hire Kris Richard as HC and let him bring Rod Marinelli back as DC............it would be an upgrade but at the same time not a total shakeup or a bunch of guys brought in that have to learn the organization.    That would be a different example of the kind of off script you are talking about.   Richard is sitting out voluntarily until he gets AT LEAST a DC job.......but it seems to me from everything I have heard that he is a better HC candidate than a DC one.   He checks some boxes that would be wise for JJ to consider checking.

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1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Fangio may look older, but the truth is he just turned 62 wrote the start of the season....

You're right.  I guess when I see him in the highlights, he looks older, and I see an old guy who's not enjoying what he's doing.  

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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Dallas should definitely fire McCarthy.......that hire was inexplicable, IMO............then they should hire Kris Richard as HC and let him bring Rod Marinelli back as DC............it would be an upgrade but at the same time not a total shakeup or a bunch of guys brought in that have to learn the organization.    That would be a different example of the kind of off script you are talking about.   Richard is sitting out voluntarily until he gets AT LEAST a DC job.......but it seems to me from everything I have heard that he is a better HC candidate than a DC one.   He checks some boxes that would be wise for JJ to consider checking.

 

Agree completely on that. I really like Richard as a potential HC. 

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11 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Daboll and Patricia would make the fattest HC and Coordinator combo in the history of the NFL.  They need to hire Freddie Kitchens as OC and they will cause a gravitational pull.

More than the Ryan's?? Not a chance!!

7 hours ago, DJB said:

 

You sure?

 

 

20201202_130806.jpg

Thanks, I needed that image for my post!!

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11 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Daboll and Patricia would make the fattest HC and Coordinator combo in the history of the NFL.  They need to hire Freddie Kitchens as OC and they will cause a gravitational pull.

 

I don't know.  Personally I think Rob Ryan and Twiggy would still make the fattest combo!

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10 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

We’ve gotten this far and no mention of Vic Fangio?

Accomplishments:

- perhaps the worst in-game decision maker

in the NFL. 

- somehow allowed all 4 (count ‘em ... 4!) QBs into the same room without masks, resulting in 13 yards passing with 2 INTs. This is after he was fined 100K for not wearing a mask on the sidelines. It is common for loudmouth fans to say things like “I could have done better” when of course they never

could. But last Sunday I am 100% confident that I could have done better. I would have taken the shotgun snap, stepped 1 yard forward, and immediately fallen down before risking getting touched by a 300 lb defensive

lineman. And that would have been better

than what that poor practice squad WR kid did on Sunday. 
Vic is toast. I see the old in-season firing happening before the Bills game in Denver. Too bad. 

 

Fangio is 100% safe.  This needs more context than just their record.  Denver has been devestated by injuries accross the roster.  Over half their cap is on IR.  Fangio has been able to cobble together scrappy defenses with JAGS and the players play hard for him.  

 

Also....Denver has no owner right now.  The are controlled by a trust while the Bowlen children figure out who, if any, can be in charge...it's a mess.  Elway has changed coaching staffs too much already and the trust won't be willing to spend more money they don't have for him to do it again this offseason.  

 

When Fangio was hired, the original plan was to have him provide stability compared to Vance Joseph, and get a VET QB to run the O at a competent level, field a stout D and win by running the football, play action passing and winning the TO batlle.  Flacco is who they got, he sucked....they turned to Drew Lock, who was never the plan..and that hasn't worked.  They'll sign a VET QB in the offseason and get back on track...Fangio keeps his job since they aren't going to be drafting a new QB.  He's not even on the hot seat.  

 

8 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I've read people in the NFL are not as high on Bienemy as the media is. I wouldnt be shocked if he didnt get a job

 

 

 

I believe this is true.  I'd say that it is important to see if John Dorsey gets a GM job this cycle....he'd almost be a package deal with Beienemy.  Dorsey would want a HC he can work with and be ABOVE in the hierarchy.  EB fits that bill and they'd both be on the same page in philosophy and players etc.  I would not be surprised at all if that pairing ends up in Houston.

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6 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

I believe this is true.  I'd say that it is important to see if John Dorsey gets a GM job this cycle....he'd almost be a package deal with Beienemy.  Dorsey would want a HC he can work with and be ABOVE in the hierarchy.  EB fits that bill and they'd both be on the same page in philosophy and players etc.  I would not be surprised at all if that pairing ends up in Houston.

 

I think there is almost zero chance John Dorsey gets another NFL GM job.

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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think there is almost zero chance John Dorsey gets another NFL GM job.

Thats what I think. In Cleveland he he drafted the 3rd best QB in the draft number one overall and hired FREDDIE KITCHENS as his HC

 

He lost the power struggle with Reid in KC too and has been known to be difficult to work with. Hes a good scout and has an eye for talent, but I wouldnt hire him as GM

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