Week 9: Seahawks at Bills

[Buffalo_Stampede]

12 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Show me where the statistic “statement game” is tracked and then we can debate it. Until then it’s some nebulous metric that you’ve set with no real concrete parameters attached, which allows you to (as Hapless said) move the goalposts to suit your position as you see fit.

 

#1 defense in terms of yards per play

 

 

I want to see Allen keep the Bills in the game. We know Seattle is going to score around 30. 

 

The Rams game Allen played lights out for a half and then put it away after a Rams comeback. It was a strange game but I would agree as of today that is his statement game. I just don't normally view games that early in the season as a statement game. Teams got film on the Bills offense and have shut it down. 

Edited November 3, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Hopefully the Bills wear red. I love those unis

[smuvtalker]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

All any of this does is change perceptions; it actually has no bearing on the outcome of the season.

 

Make the dance and you’ve got a shot.

I respectfully beg to differ sir.  If we manage to beat some of the teams that are favored to beat us, say the Steelers and the Seahawks for example, first off that's two more W's in the win column. And if we manage to beat them, I'm guessing we found some formula that we know works and can continue to employ that formula against the rest of our opponents.  And if we can beat the Steelers and the Seahawks, I believe it would make beating the Chargers, Broncos, Pats that much more realistic.  I completely agree that if we are able to do this, how we're perceived by everyone will obviously change a great deal.  But beating the big boys IMO would directly affect the outcome of the season when all is said and done.

[Billsatlastin2018]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

The Cowboys game last year was a statement game and Josh made a name for himself. The kid has 11 game winning drives in his three years here, Lamar Jackson has 3 or even more interesting is Allen has 8 4th Quarter QBs vs Lamar's 1. 

The Cowboys game was an interesting game- a great one for unveiling Allen. But what about the Cowboys? What were they at the time? 6-5 & stumbling to 8-8 and out of the Playoffs! 
 

NO signature there- at all!

 

Beat Brady, beat Paddy, beat WILSON this week- a team odds on to go to the SB, absolutely a Playoff Team.

 

THAT is a signature W.

[newcam2012]

36 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

They must be better than Josh Jacobs and Derek Henry who we held in check.  Bills have shown they can stop the run.  If anything I was most surprised how they got gashed in the second half of that game.  Bills D looks to be able to stop 1 thing run or pass but not both.

The statistics show Buffalo is 26th in stopping the run. More specifically, 31st in the last 3 games and Dallas is worse. Hardly, a singing endorsement. Sure, a team can sell out and put extra players in the box to stop the run. Bottom line is that we have a serious problem stopping the run which in term effects the pass defense. We sorely miss Star in the middle. 

[Mango]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

The team is trending towards average on both sides of the ball. Is that an improvement? Should I be happy or sad? 

[YattaOkasan]

4 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The statistics show Buffalo is 26th in stopping the run. More specifically, 31st in the last 3 games and Dallas is worse. Hardly, a singing endorsement. Sure, a team can sell out and put extra players in the box to stop the run. Bottom line is that we have a serious problem stopping the run which in term effects the pass defense. We sorely miss Star in the middle. 

Doesnt this support my point though.  We can stop the run or the pass but not both imo.  We have basically chosen to stop the pass for most games resulting in us getting gashed on the ground.  I do agree we miss Star we could better defend the run on early downs with him.  I think we do better (relative to the average) on 3rd/4th and short than 3rd and long which suggests its scheme choice to me (I am looking for stats to verify this thought).

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Billsatlastin2018]

9 hours ago, InEnemyTerritory said:

2020 = we don't know yet.  Dolphins and Rams (and even Raiders) could both end up playoff teams.  Is 3-15 good?  No way, but that 0-7 mark was with one of the worst rosters in recent Bills history, and that's saying something.  2019 was very worrying that we couldn't get it done against good teams.  This year's losses to the Titans and Chiefs also bode poorly.  Looking at the 2017 and 2018 teams, though, is disingenuous - those were bad teams that had no business being expected to beat playoff teams.

They are MCDERMOTT TEAMS! He wasn’t the hot dog vendor. And, he’s just as bad, post the 0-7 year. Is McD morphing into a Marv Lewis? Can get his teams into the Playoffs, but can’t do anything else? 
 

And the question is, are they a better team now? At QB- yes, but obviously the NKOTB- Burrow, Herbert, Murray appear as stars and Lock, Minshew, etc. are very close. And the Sunday Beer League... can’t tackle, can’t cover, can’t press, can’t get off the field D, is a Train Wreck!  They have a genuine Star at WR1, WR3 is decent, but WR2 has been MIA and the entire collection of Stone Hands TEs are not markedly improved.

 

They are up against 4 SB contender and/or Playoff likely teams in the next 4. Win TWO and I’ll be convinced, there’s been a change,

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

The way I was thinking before the 2018 NFL draft....flip that ranking completely upside down.  That's how I would have had it.

[YoloinOhio]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

The way I was thinking before the 2018 NFL draft....flip that ranking completely upside down.  That's how I would have had it.

And no Rosen at all ... crazy how it all worked out so far 

Edited November 3, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

And no Rosen at all ... crazy how it all worked out so far 

 

I  completely forgot about Rosen.  

[wjag]

17 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I  completely forgot about Rosen.  

 

So have the Dolphins

[thebandit27]

44 minutes ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

They are MCDERMOTT TEAMS! He wasn’t the hot dog vendor. And, he’s just as bad, post the 0-7 year. Is McD morphing into a Marv Lewis? Can get his teams into the Playoffs, but can’t do anything else? 
 

And the question is, are they a better team now? At QB- yes, but obviously the NKOTB- Burrow, Herbert, Murray appear as stars and Lock, Minshew, etc. are very close. And the Sunday Beer League... can’t tackle, can’t cover, can’t press, can’t get off the field D, is a Train Wreck!  They have a genuine Star at WR1, WR3 is decent, but WR2 has been MIA and the entire collection of Stone Hands TEs are not markedly improved.

 

They are up against 4 SB contender and/or Playoff likely teams in the next 4. Win TWO and I’ll be convinced, there’s been a change,

Lock and Minshew are “very close”?????

 

This can’t be serious.

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

They are MCDERMOTT TEAMS! He wasn’t the hot dog vendor. And, he’s just as bad, post the 0-7 year. Is McD morphing into a Marv Lewis? Can get his teams into the Playoffs, but can’t do anything else? 
 

And the question is, are they a better team now? At QB- yes, but obviously the NKOTB- Burrow, Herbert, Murray appear as stars and Lock, Minshew, etc. are very close. And the Sunday Beer League... can’t tackle, can’t cover, can’t press, can’t get off the field D, is a Train Wreck!  They have a genuine Star at WR1, WR3 is decent, but WR2 has been MIA and the entire collection of Stone Hands TEs are not markedly improved.

 

They are up against 4 SB contender and/or Playoff likely teams in the next 4. Win TWO and I’ll be convinced, there’s been a change,

Yeah, you might have had an argument until you started talking. Woof. 
 

Minshew just got benched with no promise of him returning as the starter. Drew Lock? Have you actually watched Kyler play QB? 
 

If we waited 4 years to take a QB you’d be the first to cry about it, so Burrow and Herbert were never in the mix. Come on, man. 

[Success]

This will be a big "I'm still here" game for Josh Allen.

 

After being in the MVP conversation a month into the season, there have been a lot of "fool's gold" type of comments among the punditry and other fanbases (and even this fanbase), and that he is the same guy he was last year.

 

I don't see that.  I actually thought he played pretty well against TN, and yesterday, considering the conditions. Even the KC game wasn't that bad.

 

But I think he gets back on track in a big way this week.  I see a high scoring game & Bills W.

 

[hondo in seattle]

I live surrounded by 12th men and woman who have pitied my Bills fandom over the years.  And I gotta admit, when I first looked ahead to the Seahawks game after we put away the Pats, I sadly thought "blowout."  

 

But a couple of thoughts...

 

The Bills outgain their opponents by about 14 yards per game.  The 'Hawks on the other hand, are outgained by their opponents by about 47 yards per game.  Their defense isn't just bad.  It's really bad.   From a yardage standpoint, their D is more bad than their O is good.  From a yardage differential standpoint, we have the better team.  

 

Some pundits seem to think the Bills are an average team that lucked into their 6 wins while the Wilson-led Seahawks deservedly earned their 6 wins.  The algorithm used by FiveThirtyEight paints a somewhat different picture.   While the Seahawks are 4th in ELO, the Bills aren't far behind at 9th.  538 gives the Bills a reasonable 46% chances of winning this weekend.  Roughly speaking, it's a tossup.  

[Boxcar]

4 minutes ago, Success said:

This will be a big "I'm still here" game for Josh Allen.

 

After being in the MVP conversation a month into the season, there have been a lot of "fool's gold" type of comments among the punditry and other fanbases (and even this fanbase), and that he is the same guy he was last year.

 

I don't see that.  I actually thought he played pretty well against TN, and yesterday, considering the conditions. Even the KC game wasn't that bad.

 

But I think he gets back on track in a big way this week.  I see a high scoring game & Bills W.

 

I'm baffled by Bills twitter. These guys think the Hawks should be favoured by like 10 points. They beat the Cowboys and Vikings by a combined 8 points. What

[Success]

1 minute ago, Boxcar said:

I'm baffled by Bills twitter. These guys think the Hawks should be favoured by like 10 points. They beat the Cowboys and Vikings by a combined 8 points. What

 

I've seen them play quite a bit this year.  It's a fun team, and Wilson is playing out of his mind.  He has a lot of targets to throw to.

 

But so does Allen, and the Hawks also have nearly as many flaws as we do.  Their defense can be just as inconsistent as ours, and they can tend to play to the level of their opponent.

 

I think Allen & the O can keep up with Wilson.  It should be a great game. I don't see us as being outclassed in any way.

 

[Boxcar]

8 minutes ago, Success said:

 

I've seen them play quite a bit this year.  It's a fun team, and Wilson is playing out of his mind.  He has a lot of targets to throw to.

 

But so does Allen, and the Hawks also have nearly as many flaws as we do.  Their defense can be just as inconsistent as ours, and they can tend to play to the level of their opponent.

 

I think Allen & the O can keep up with Wilson.  It should be a great game. I don't see us as being outclassed in any way.

 

100% agree. Seahawks should be favoured, but -2.5 to 3.5 seems about right. If it actually goes to -7.5 or something, seems like easy cash.

 

Also, having Feliciano back is huge. Hopefully Morse can play too, but is it a coincidence that the Bills got their run game going same day he made his return? Josh didn't throw a lot, but he didn't need to, and pocket protection will be a lot better. Bills need to pressure Wilson. Zimmer has made a case to be starting, I think. Even past the amazing forced fumble on Cam, he's played very well. This game will be on Wallace, White and Hyde to reduce those deep shots and hopefully the LBs can contain the underneath pass plays.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Boxcar

[Billsatlastin2018]

18 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yeah, you might have had an argument until you started talking. Woof. 
 

Minshew just got benched with no promise of him returning as the starter. Drew Lock? Have you actually watched Kyler play QB? 
 

If we waited 4 years to take a QB you’d be the first to cry about it, so Burrow and Herbert were never in the mix. Come on, man. 

HAD to take a QB, no question! And I’m happy with Allen as he develops. Aside from Jackson, he’s the best of his year. But, now we’ve seen new draft years and there was an outstanding one in 2019. Presently, I would say that almost 1/2 the NFL teams have a HOF/Excellent/ VG QB. This is no slight against Allen, just that he’s up against formidable competition.

[Boxcar]

Just now, High Football IQ said:

Assuming the Bills get smoked in this game similar to the Titans, what will the pulse of Bills mafia truly be?

 

Simply we lost to another SB contender type of team, the Bills are frauds and not a playoff team, or somewhere in between?

 

If the bills do lose big and are never really in the game at some point I would like to see the Pegula's publicly challenge this regime (specifically McClappy) and call them out for their lack of success against the league's better teams and all this process junk.

Seems like Bills Mafia is expecting to lose by three touchdowns, so anything less should be considered a victory.

[Ned Flanders]

1 minute ago, High Football IQ said:

If the bills do lose big and are never really in the game at some point I would like to see the Pegula's publicly challenge this regime (specifically McClappy) and call them out for their lack of success against the league's better teams and all this process junk.

 

Yeah, that's really Pegula's style...

[teef]

2 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

Assuming the Bills get smoked in this game similar to the Titans, what will the pulse of Bills mafia truly be?

 

Simply we lost to another SB contender type of team, the Bills are frauds and not a playoff team, or somewhere in between?

 

If the bills do lose big and are never really in the game at some point I would like to see the Pegula's publicly challenge this regime (specifically McClappy) and call them out for their lack of success against the league's better teams and all this process junk.

yes,  if the bills lose this sunday, i'm sure ownership will call out the staff...a 6-3 staff with the lead in the east.  my god.

[Royale with Cheese]

The Seahawks are giving up almost 360 yards passing per game.  I expect Allen to have 50 pass attempts.

[SWATeam]

Just now, teef said:

yes,  if the bills lose this sunday, i'm sure ownership will call out the staff...a 6-3 staff with the lead in the east.  my god.

Maybe we can get Jauron back?

 

only 3 playoff years out of 4 after a 17 year drought???  This "process" crap needs to go.

[teef]

Just now, SWATeam said:

Maybe we can get Jauron back?

 

only 3 playoff years out of 4 after a 17 year drought???  This "process" crap needs to go.

there are just certain people that will always complain.  

 

that being said, i don't think that's what @High Football IQ is doing.  the dude is in major need of attention.  i get busting people's balls, but this guy's family must not even pay attention to him.  i've never, ever seen anyone that starved to be noticed.  it's kinda sad.

[JGMcD2]

8 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

Assuming the Bills get smoked in this game similar to the Titans, what will the pulse of Bills mafia truly be?

 

Simply we lost to another SB contender type of team, the Bills are frauds and not a playoff team, or somewhere in between?

 

If the bills do lose big and are never really in the game at some point I would like to see the Pegula's publicly challenge this regime (specifically McClappy) and call them out for their lack of success against the league's better teams and all this process junk.

Sounds like a great way for everything to blow up. Ownership publicly calling out the coach and players about their performance... that would make Buffalo seem like they have their stuff together.

 

I'll continue to say this... thank God you're not in charge of people. There would be an uprising the likes of which the world has never seen.

[Nextmanup]

33 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I live surrounded by 12th men and woman who have pitied my Bills fandom over the years.  And I gotta admit, when I first looked ahead to the Seahawks game after we put away the Pats, I sadly thought "blowout."  

 

But a couple of thoughts...

 

The Bills outgain their opponents by about 14 yards per game.  The 'Hawks on the other hand, are outgained by their opponents by about 47 yards per game.  Their defense isn't just bad.  It's really bad.   From a yardage standpoint, their D is more bad than their O is good.  From a yardage differential standpoint, we have the better team.  

 

Some pundits seem to think the Bills are an average team that lucked into their 6 wins while the Wilson-led Seahawks deservedly earned their 6 wins.  The algorithm used by FiveThirtyEight paints a somewhat different picture.   While the Seahawks are 4th in ELO, the Bills aren't far behind at 9th.  538 gives the Bills a reasonable 46% chances of winning this weekend.  Roughly speaking, it's a tossup.  

Your relying on painting a picture of each team that is made up of their entire season so far.  I guess you can argue that's one way to do it, and perhaps even an accurate one.

 

I would suggest it's meaningless because it incorporates too much tertiary data and the only relevant match up is the one played this Sunday.  I.E., compare who Seattle is now to who Buffalo is now, or even more specifically, who they are on Sunday.

 

I do not think this game is a tossup.  I think it's an easy win for Seattle.  

 

If we can out-score Russel Wilson and beat the Seahawks, we would be looking phenomenal.

 

 

[Mango]

6 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

The Seahawks are giving up almost 360 yards passing per game.  I expect Allen to have 50 pass attempts.

I don't think we see that. The defense is starting to trend overall to average-ish, problem is, so is the offense. I think McD tries to play keep away from Russ like we did KC. 

At some point I would like to see our offense with Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Davis, and Allen perform like are one of the top groups in the NFL and go toe to toe with another good offense. So far they have shriveled against the top teams, and have not found any swagger against the bad ones.

I will still be worried if we can't put up more than 25 points (median= 25/mean= 23.75) on one of the worst defenses in the league. We are averaging 19 ppg the last 4 weeks. Time to prove we still have it. 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

I don't think we see that. The defense is starting to trend overall to average-ish, problem is, so is the offense. I think McD tries to play keep away from Russ like we did KC. 

At some point I would like to see our offense with Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Davis, and Allen perform like are one of the top groups in the NFL and go toe to toe with another good offense. So far they have shriveled against the top teams, and have not found any swagger against the bad ones.

I will still be worried if we can't put up more than 25 points (median= 25/mean= 23.75) on one of the worst defenses in the league. We are averaging 19 ppg the last 4 weeks. Time to prove we still have it. 

 

I'm starting to worry about the offense.  I'm scared to death of our defense.  

I don't know how we win this game but crazy things have happened in 2020.

[Stank_Nasty]

9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm starting to worry about the offense.  I'm scared to death of our defense.  

I don't know how we win this game but crazy things have happened in 2020.

This is basically word for word where i'm at.

[teef]

28 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

The Seahawks are giving up almost 360 yards passing per game.  I expect Allen to have 50 pass attempts.

i figured that if they could get the run game going again, they would rely much more on that to keep wilson off the field. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

Newsflash everyone.  These are the same teams playing each other.  Crappy defense and lots of offensive weapons.  Going to be a great win Sunday

[Royale with Cheese]

14 minutes ago, teef said:

i figured that if they could get the run game going again, they would rely much more on that to keep wilson off the field. 

I’m guessing the run will set up the playaction.

Daboll gets pass happy with Josh and I think they know we need to score 30 to have a chance.

[Boxcar]

3 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Newsflash everyone.  These are the same teams playing each other.  Crappy defense and lots of offensive weapons.  Going to be a great win Sunday

Wilson is better than Josh (hurts to admit) and Lockett + Metcalf are better than Diggs + Brown or Beasley. If the Bills win this game, it's up to the pass rush and corners + Hyde to prevent the deep ball. The open field tackling has to be much better, too.

[Figster]

8 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

 

Actually I am a manager of multiple people in my line of work.

 

I treat my team fairly but I believe in 'social accountability' vs closed door management. It makes the individual understand what they need to improve and puts positive pressure to correct shortcomings and fellow team members also understand what's expected of them so they don't make the same mistakes.

 

Regardless I understand why some folks think this would be a negative but if you look at this head coaches record against teams that made the playoffs each year (3-15 entering 2020) it's fair to say he's not very good against the NFL top tier teams despite his overall body of work and W/L record.

The way I see it beating the top tier teams requires being able to beat the teams you should beat 1st for the most part and then taking it to the next level. I agree with you.

 

Its time for Buffalo to take it to the next level. 

 

 

[Dablitzkrieg]

Just now, Boxcar said:

Wilson is better than Josh (hurts to admit) and Lockett + Metcalf are better than Diggs + Brown or Beasley. If the Bills win this game, it's up to the pass rush and corners + Hyde to prevent the deep ball. The open field tackling has to be much better, too.

I never said anyone was better.  The two offenses don't play each other

[Dablitzkrieg]

Just now, High Football IQ said:

 

If Allen was on the same level as Wilson and McClap as Pete Carroll I would agree.

 

What concerns me the most about this game is Metcalf....this kid is an animal and going to destroy White or whoever tries to cover him.

I'm sorry, I don't take anything you say serious.  You are too out there for me