Josh Allen year 3 comparisons

[808]

Ill be back to cash these checks after he plays a few games and the sky is falling for some. I want him to be good. But i think the holes in his game arent fixable. But you can conceal them if everything else goes right. But i dont think he has the game for a qb in the year 2020. He woulda been good in 1975. But in todays nfl. I dont think so. 

[Gambit]

49 minutes ago, 808 said:

Ill be back to cash these checks after he plays a few games and the sky is falling for some. I want him to be good. But i think the holes in his game arent fixable. But you can conceal them if everything else goes right. But i dont think he has the game for a qb in the year 2020. He woulda been good in 1975. But in todays nfl. I dont think so. 

So if Josh ends up being great, does that mean you won't be back? That would be 2 wonderful things. 

[808]

7 hours ago, Gambit said:

So if Josh ends up being great, does that mean you won't be back? That would be 2 wonderful things. 

My feelings dont get hurt when josh plays bad like some. Ive come to reality with it. Im not going to build him up and look past his warts by saying look how strong his arm is tho! He tries the hardest!  
Until he actually shows he is better. This is him. And projecting that he only gets better is not realistic if youre not also saying he could get worse  or stay the same. 
??‍♂️But sure ill stop coming here if you stop too ?

[rayray808]

So far it seems like for year 3 comps:

 

FLOOR: MITCH TRUBISKY (bad stats, losing season)

MAKES A STEP: JOSH FREEMAN (eratic but good stats, good season)

MAKES TWO STEPS: DAK PRESCOTT (under control, commands offense, one playoff win)

HUGE STRIDES: CAM NEWTON (backyard football with passing/running, division win, pro bowl)

 

Fair?

 

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

26 minutes ago, rayray808 said:

So far it seems like for year 3 comps:

 

FLOOR: MITCH TRUBISKY (bad stats, losing season)

MAKES A STEP: JOSH FREEMAN (eratic but good stats, good season)

MAKES TWO STEPS: DAK PRESCOTT (under control, commands offense, one playoff win)

HUGE STRIDES: CAM NEWTON (backyard football with passing/running, division win, pro bowl)

 

Fair?

 

 

 

I think you have to specify a Cam Newton season.  His 2014 and 2017 seasons look much like Josh2019.  Cam 2013 is better and 2015 is best.  Imo, due to their size and the way they play, the thread could be which of Cam Newton's seasons do you think Josh's will most look like in 2020?  Then we could argue about that.  

[Gambit]

45 minutes ago, 808 said:

My feelings dont get hurt when josh plays bad like some. Ive come to reality with it. Im not going to build him up and look past his warts by saying look how strong his arm is tho! He tries the hardest!  
Until he actually shows he is better. This is him. And projecting that he only gets better is not realistic if youre not also saying he could get worse  or stay the same. 
??‍♂️But sure ill stop coming here if you stop too ?

When did I say he will only get better? That wasn't even remotely what I said but nice try buddy. And the last part made me chuckle. 

[Don Otreply]

14 hours ago, 808 said:

Josh freeman is great comp for him. Youll get burned at the stake for it cause people are happy since josh is better than the 30 turd bags the bills wheeled out since kelly. But that still doesnt mean he is an NFL starting qb. Just means he was a step up from dog poop. 

Yikes there 808, do you feel better now that you have fully expressed yourself? by the way, how many of those turd bag QBs won ten games and sealed a playoff appearance at week 14 in their 2nd year?  How many of those turd bag QBs have beat the cowboys soundly in their house? How many of those turd bag QBs were likely candidates to win the division in their 3rd year? You my fellow fan desperately need to burn down a fatty and enjoy your favorite beverage while doing so. You come across as a most unhappy individual, kinda feel bad for you, those seventeen years of the recent past must have had you “close to the edge”... 

 

Go Bills!!!

[808]

1 hour ago, Gambit said:

When did I say he will only get better? That wasn't even remotely what I said but nice try buddy. And the last part made me chuckle. 

I didnt say “you” said it. But look thru this thread or any topic related to josh on this board and its only puppies and rainbows. It only gets better. 

27 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Yikes there 808, do you feel better now that you have fully expressed yourself? by the way, how many of those turd bag QBs won ten games and sealed a playoff appearance at week 14 in their 2nd year?  How many of those turd bag QBs have beat the cowboys soundly in their house? How many of those turd bag QBs were likely candidates to win the division in their 3rd year? You my fellow fan desperately need to burn down a fatty and enjoy your favorite beverage while doing so. You come across as a most unhappy individual, kinda feel bad for you, those seventeen years of the recent past must have had you “close to the edge”... 

 

Go Bills!!!

You mean the 8-8 power house cowboys? 
fitz beat the pats that won a superbowl?. 
my issue is josh gets gold stars everyweek from his fan boys for climbing out of a self dug hole like he did something amazing. Bills fan are just soo accustomed to poor qb play that mediocre seems great. 
he had some moments. But to not acknowledge he had more wtfs than ups is not what ima do. 

[Don Otreply]

47 minutes ago, 808 said:

I didnt say “you” said it. But look thru this thread or any topic related to josh on this board and its only puppies and rainbows. It only gets better. 

You mean the 8-8 power house cowboys? 
fitz beat the pats that won a superbowl?. 
my issue is josh gets gold stars everyweek from his fan boys for climbing out of a self dug hole like he did something amazing. Bills fan are just soo accustomed to poor qb play that mediocre seems great. 
he had some moments. But to not acknowledge he had more wtfs than ups is not what ima do. 

It may just be me..., but it does appear that everyone knows that Allen has things to improve on, and he says as much himself, so your revelation that he isn’t Joe Montana after two years is not a thing as it were, Josh Allen is the best Turd bag QB since the drought started, and by the way the cowboys are considered a great team, just ask ESPN.,. ??

Still though, you need that fatty and a beer badly, do get right on that, it’s for your own good... 

Edited July 23, 2020 by Don Otreply

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, 808 said:

I didnt say “you” said it. But look thru this thread or any topic related to josh on this board and its only puppies and rainbows. It only gets better. 

You mean the 8-8 power house cowboys? 
fitz beat the pats that won a superbowl?. 
my issue is josh gets gold stars everyweek from his fan boys for climbing out of a self dug hole like he did something amazing. Bills fan are just soo accustomed to poor qb play that mediocre seems great. 
he had some moments. But to not acknowledge he had more wtfs than ups is not what ima do. 

The more you post the more I feel sorry for you

[808]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

It may just be me..., but it does appear that everyone knows that Allen has things to improve on, and he says as much himself, so your revelation that he isn’t Joe Montana after two years is not a thing as it were, Josh Allen is the best Turd bag QB since the drought started, and by the way the cowboys are considered a great team, just ask ESPN.,. ??

Still though, you need that fatty and a beer badly, do get right on that, it’s for your own good... 

i feel you. Maybe turd bag wasnt a great name. But its not that im down on him. As the great buddy nix said. Show me the baby. Dont tell me about the labor. ?. Ive gone thru the madness of latching on to the wrong qb. It is what it is. Im just waiting and being analytical about it rather than jumping in feet first. ??

47 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

The more you post the more I feel sorry for you

Send me the kool aid recipe you got and maybe ill be part of jonestown north. 

[John from Riverside]

4 minutes ago, 808 said:

i feel you. Maybe turd bag wasnt a great name. But its not that im down on him. As the great buddy nix said. Show me the baby. Dont tell me about the labor. ?. Ive gone thru the madness of latching on to the wrong qb. It is what it is. Im just waiting and being analytical about it rather than jumping in feet first. ??

Send me the kool aid recipe you got and maybe ill be part of jonestown north. 

Kool Aid.....we need to keep you away from the sharp objects in the room

[Sherlock Holmes]

Pat Mahomes

Not sure what you negative nancies are watching but Josh has a GOAT arm... he can make throws no other QB EVER could make... Very accurate in short and intermediate throws just needs to Drew Brees it and connect on the Deep ball as well... Then people will acknowledge that GOAT cannon

[BarleyNY]

Honest assessment here:

Ceiling: Cam in MVP year

Floor: Derek Anderson in back half of time in Cleveland 

 

I don’t really expect either, but I do think they’re both in the realm of possibility.  If things click with mechanics and progressions/reads, then I see great things for Allen.  That’s very optimistic, but it could happen.  Why not root for it?
 

 As for the DA worst case dooms day scenario, it’s about confidence.  Allen is still better as a player in a lot of ways, but DA had similar accuracy issues and once defenses adjusted coverages to him he lost his confidence and crashed.  Allen started off well in the Houston game, but really lost it after his fumble.  There’s a part of me that worries that his confidence might not be where it should be.  With little practice time to settle in before this season starts I worry about what a slow/rough start might do to him in that regard.  As for defenses scheming against him, the difference between his performances against zone versus man is ridiculous.  I was stunned every time I saw heavy zone against him last season.
 

Realistically I’m looking for some incremental improvement.  In addition to Allen moving up the learning curve a bit I want to address what look like two statistical anomalies from last season where I think the odds played out both for and against Allen.  He should’ve gotten better numbers on his deep balls.  I think those will be better this season and that it’ll help him, his stats and the team.  With Diggs on board, maybe it’ll help them a lot.  But there are also his turnover worthy plays last season.  Too many errant throws that could’ve been picked but weren’t.  And too many fumbles that we were lucky enough to get back at a higher than expected rate.  Statistically I think that gets closer to the mean this year and we see more interceptions and lost fumbles.  Hopefully the better deep pass numbers outweigh the turnover numbers and we see a net positive.
 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

17 hours ago, 808 said:

I didnt say “you” said it. But look thru this thread or any topic related to josh on this board and its only puppies and rainbows. It only gets better. 

You mean the 8-8 power house cowboys? 
fitz beat the pats that won a superbowl?. 
my issue is josh gets gold stars everyweek from his fan boys for climbing out of a self dug hole like he did something amazing. Bills fan are just soo accustomed to poor qb play that mediocre seems great. 
he had some moments. But to not acknowledge he had more wtfs than ups is not what ima do. 

Except that he didn’t have for “wtf” moments than he did “ups”. The dude was and is a work in progress coming off a season where he had a mere 13 total turnovers to 29 total tds. Then there’s the 10 wins.  That’s not more wtf’s than positives. 

you have historically rational posters telling you that you look sorta silly at the moment. Maybe take a moment, gather some sense, and come back later. 

Edited July 24, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[C.Biscuit97]

On 7/22/2020 at 11:41 PM, 808 said:

Josh freeman is great comp for him. Youll get burned at the stake for it cause people are happy since josh is better than the 30 turd bags the bills wheeled out since kelly. But that still doesnt mean he is an NFL starting qb. Just means he was a step up from dog poop. 

Wow, that’s actually a really interesting one.  Freeman had every physical tool and had a really good second season (5 game winning drives!!!!). And then he had 2 more seasons and was basically done.  
 

but again, I don’t think Allen is like any recent high 1st round prospect because he’s never had a history of dominance on any level.  That said, he’s in about as good of a situation as any 3rd year qb can be in.  If he doesn’t significantly improve this year, I’m quite confident in saying he isn’t the right guy. 

On 7/23/2020 at 3:14 AM, John from Riverside said:

You are entitled to you opinion.....regardless of how wrong you are

Freeman had a better second year that Allen.  It’s really not that crazy of a comparison.  

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Wow, that’s actually a really interesting one.  Freeman had every physical tool and had a really good second season (5 game winning drives!!!!). And then he had 2 more seasons and was basically done.  
 

but again, I don’t think Allen is like any recent high 1st round prospect because he’s never had a history of dominance on any level.  That said, he’s in about as good of a situation as any 3rd year qb can be in.  If he doesn’t significantly improve this year, I’m quite confident in saying he isn’t the right guy. 

Freeman had a better second year that Allen.  It’s really not that crazy of a comparison.  

 

Josh Freeman and Blake Bortles are both examples of guys who made good strides year 1 to year 2 and then their progress just stalled completely. I am guessing if you had asked any Tampa or Jags fans after their 2nd years none of those would have seen any obvious reasons why they had reached their plateau. Now I think Josh is more of a grinder than either of those guys who were both maybe not the best workers... but they were similarly big bodied, big armed, naturally talented guys.

 

I don't expect Josh to go the way they did, but it is a fair point, and I think Josh does need to keep progressing.

[HappyDays]

Didn't feel like this deserved its own thread but it's interesting:

 

 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Didn't feel like this deserved its own thread but it's interesting:

 

 

 

Yep. Encouraging number. Especially as Diggs will make sure the top two of those guys from last year are singled and open a lot more often. 

[808]

4 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Except that he didn’t have for “wtf” moments than he did “ups”. The dude was and is a work in progress coming off a season where he had a mere 13 total turnovers to 29 total tds. Then there’s the 10 wins.  That’s not more wtf’s than positives. 

you have historically rational posters telling you that you look sorta silly at the moment. Maybe take a moment, gather some sense, and come back later. 

Its almost like you didnt watch the games. A TEAM can win despite a qb shitting his pants a few times a game then coming thru once. 
how often did we see josh below 100yards passing entering the 4th or late in the third and a handfull of wtf throws and or fumbles. 

[John from Riverside]

I will just keep posting this till idiotic 808 posts go away:

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

Realistically I don't ever see Josh going above 63% in his career. The 17-22 tds are too low. He'll average 25-28 most of his career with probably 1 or 2 outlier seasons above 30. I think the key to Josh's long term success and having him avoid a "Andy Dalton" type career is for Sean to always have a quality defense around him. We seen qbs who are not HOFers win SB'S. All Josh has to be is be a "high ceiling" game manager. 

[Jrb1979]

52 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Realistically I don't ever see Josh going above 63% in his career. The 17-22 tds are too low. He'll average 25-28 most of his career with probably 1 or 2 outlier seasons above 30. I think the key to Josh's long term success and having him avoid a "Andy Dalton" type career is for Sean to always have a quality defense around him. We seen qbs who are not HOFers win SB'S. All Josh has to be is be a "high ceiling" game manager. 

Whatever floats your boat. Its hard to keep high quality defenses together for multiple years. For how high he was drafted and many fans considering him the franchise a game manager is not good enough. 

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Jrb1979 said:

Whatever floats your boat. Its hard to keep high quality defenses together for multiple years. For how high he was drafted and many fans considering him the franchise a game manager is not good enough. 

You do realize there not even enough starting caliber QBs to go around to NFL teams right?

 

YOu do realize that QBs drafted as high as number 1 bust right?

[Ralonzo]

3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I will just keep posting this till idiotic 808 posts go away:

 

 

 

I always watch this because it has one of the best calls of all time.

 

"There's a STRIKE delivered forrrr... ... ...an incomplete pass"

 

Honest to God, if the Bills were dominating with a Brees or Wilson at QB it wouldn't be as interesting to watch as Allen. You stand a much greater chance of seeing something you've never seen before with that guy, good moreso than bad, but either is possible. When you've been on this rock for a few spins, there's value in that. Thrill me!

 

 

 

Edited July 24, 2020 by Ralonzo

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

Whatever floats your boat. Its hard to keep high quality defenses together for multiple years. For how high he was drafted and many fans considering him the franchise a game manager is not good enough. 

 

The poster is also not taking into consideration that "high end game managers" get paid good money and even a QB making 27 million or closer to 15% of your cap makes it harder to always have a good to great defense around them. If Josh is a good but not great QB then the Bill's are only going to consistently win during his rookie deal and if they can draft insanely well.

 

Drafting that well is hard to do so it will likely come down to Josh long term.

[Dragoon]

Ya know why I love Josh....he has Fitzpatrick’s heart and balls, and he’s got elite talent. That’s what I think of him. 

[Bss]

1 hour ago, Dragoon said:

Ya know why I love Josh....he has Fitzpatrick’s heart and balls, and he’s got elite talent. That’s what I think of him. 

Fitz without the weak arm honestly could be an average-above average franchise quarterback. 

[808]

On 7/24/2020 at 8:33 AM, John from Riverside said:

I will just keep posting this till idiotic 808 posts go away:

 

 

Didnt see his 20+ fumbles in there ?. What about when he threw it directly to a defender and he dropped it. Should give him credit for that too! 
yes he had a bunch of drops.but that didnt make him wildly inconsistent and his game awareness horrible. I want him to be the best in the nfl but im also realistic to say he has massive warts. 

[Bangarang]

His floor is Newtown’s MVP season and his ceiling is Mahome’s MVP season.

[Rockinon]

On 7/22/2020 at 12:37 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

IMO, Josh will put up somewhere between 3800 and 4200 yards passing (range depends on the run game, if Devin and Moss become a dynamic duo, Josh yardage numbers will dip...for good reason).  Then I think we will see Josh put up 32-36 total TD's (again, range is reflecting potential impact of run game because if Moss becomes a battering ram, then Josh will lose some of those inside the 10 TD runs).   Josh will also be north of 60%, and I expect that to be in the 63% to 65% range.  When you got a guy with a cannon like Josh, a competitive drive like Josh, and who is not afraid to take deep shots at any time...then he will never be a guy who leads the league in or is top 5 in comp %.  And I would rather have a 62% passer who is pushing he ball down field than a 68% passer who manages a game.  I also think Josh will have single digit INT's somewhere between 7 and 9.  

 

I have real high expectations for our offense this year and firmly believe we will be a top 10 scoring offense.  Our Defense is stout, so our offense should benefit from turnovers and good field position this year.  I think we will average 25+ points per game personally.  

 

Final stat line projection from above all lined up together:

 

Allen:  3800-4200 yards, 32+ total TD's, 9 or less INT's, 63% comp

 

These are my legit expectations.  And I will say this, I feel like this is closer to his floor than his peak this year.  That is me being conservative in his projections IMO.  

 

BUT:  At the end of the day, the only stat I am concerned about is the win column in the playoffs.  We have a RB duo with immense potential.  If Devin and Moss are combining for 175 to 200 yards per game (rushing and receiving), Josh's stats may not be gaudy.  So its not so much about the stat lines Josh puts up, its about how he plays leading this team.  If Josh puts up 3300 yards, 22 passing TD's, and 4 rushing TD's with 5 INT's and 64% passing completion...that would still be a VERY successful season for him if it was because our run game was dominating along side him.  We can't knock Josh season totals just because our RB's were highly productive and reducing the frequency to throw for stats.  

 

That being said, Moss is unproven still and Devin showed a ton of promise, but we still don't know what he will look like in his first season as the lead back either.  Plus, while I expect our run game to be effective, its clear the team wants to throw more too and went out and paid a ton to get Diggs to support their young QB with a monster of an arm.  So I still think my final stat line projection is both realistic and somewhat conservative too.  

 

 

This is pretty much what I am thinking. However, if that running game is successful, the passing game will open up better. Football has a flow to it. Rushing and passing compliment each other. If one of them is not effective, the other also takes a hit. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the offense as a whole sees a significant jump in productivity. Diggs should help in keeping the passing game clicking, just as Moss should help keeping the rushing game clicking. Being successful in both prevents setbacks and keeps the flow of the game from being interrupted. I'm not expecting a huge jump from Josh. But the offense as a whole just might take a leap. If the offense improves only marginally, that would be disappointing.

[DuckyBoys]

I think his completion percentage gets a good bump just from throwing to Diggs moving Brown and Beasley to the #2 and #3 targets.  They need to let him throw more on 1st down  His success rate on 1st down passing was very good. 

[Dr.Sack]

No one knows Allen’s ceiling....yet

[Warcodered]

On 7/24/2020 at 10:29 AM, HappyDays said:

Didn't feel like this deserved its own thread but it's interesting:

 

 

I mean who even was the #3 WR last year?

[Bss]

6 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I mean who even was the #3 WR last year?

In terms of snap count Isaiah McKenzie, who was on the field 42% of the time 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

By far Turbitzky's biggest problem in year 3 was his inability or reluctance to make plays with his legs.  In Turbitzky's break out second season he converted 29 of his 68 rushing attempts into first downs. A 43% clip. In year 3 his 1st down conversion rate plummeted to 25%. He ran the ball 30% less and for 54% less yardage than he did in 2018. This was a problem because he clearly left a lot of plays on the field since he did not make up for these missed running plays with better and more efficient passing numbers. 

 

Honestly, Allen's year three passing number could look very similar to the ones of Turbitzky that the OP posted.  The passing stat not posted by the OP that I would most not want Allen to have similar is Turbitzky's league worst 6.1 YPA. In 2018 Turbitzky was a respectable 7.4  in that category.  Allen wasn't good last year at 6.7 but you can live with it. Brady was 6.6 last year and Wentz was 6.7 and both made the playoffs. There was a big drop off after 6.6 where Rudolph was 31st in the league at 6.2 and Turbitzky was 32nd with 6.1

 

If Allen can just up his YPA to 7.0 - 7.2 while still being the aggressive and efficient runner he has always been I think he will have a very good year. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 hours ago, Bangarang said:

His floor is Newtown’s MVP season and his ceiling is Mahome’s MVP season.

His ceiling is Newton and Mahome's MVP seasons combined. Somewhere around 60 total TD's and over 5600 yards.

 

His floor is Blake Bortles and Colin Kaepernick.

 

 

[BuffaloBills1998]

He’s going to be fine, he’s gonna get better because he wants to be better and won’t settle for less. I don’t care if he never throws for 5,000 yards and 50 TDS. Jim Kelly never threw for more than 3,000 yards his entire career here in Buffalo. If Allen can have half the career here that Kelly did I’ll be very happy and pleased 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBills1998 said:

He’s going to be fine, he’s gonna get better because he wants to be better and won’t settle for less. 

 

While that certainly helps, it guarantees nothing. 

[FireChans]

12 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

His ceiling is Newton and Mahome's MVP seasons combined. Somewhere around 60 total TD's and over 5600 yards.

 

His floor is Blake Bortles and Colin Kaepernick.

 

 

I'm thinking 80 total TD's. 40 in the air, 40 on the ground.

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While that certainly helps, it guarantees nothing. 

Not true. I want to be a better QB as well, and now look at me!