Ryen Russillo podcast/Josh Allen review

[Seasons1992]

https://www.theringer.com/2020/5/26/21270942/cases-for-against-the-next-generation-of-nfl-qbs-with-kevin-clark

 

"Fast forward" to 55 minutes left. Ryen talks with Kevin Clark about Josh. Good stuff.

[DrDawkinstein]

Interesting stuff.

 

Not sure I'll agree with the assertion that we've already seen "who Josh is" and that it won't change. It isn't like he has to re-invent his entire game, just start hitting deep balls, and a few other minor tweaks. The same "incremental improvement" that he then says he expects out of Darnold. So which is it?

 

We'll see.

 

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by DrDawkinstein

[Big Turk]

If Josh can hit the deep ball it immediately opens everything else up that much more for the offense...

[BigBillsFan]

Great interview and accurate analysis.

 

Honestly I think it could be possible he has a massive jump, but I can't argue where he's wrong either.

[eball]

I'm not even going to waste my time listening to that because if anyone says Josh Allen has already reached what he will be in the NFL then their opinion means nothing to me.  There is literally no reason not to expect Allen to continue to improve, based upon what we've already seen.

[Mickey]

Great, yet another edition of an obscure podcast dudes saying that Josh Allen is a bad QB while dismissing all evidence to the contrary as a series of unexplained anomalies that do not negate their carefully crafted arguments. We have gone from not taking statistics serious enough, blown past a brief period of taking them for what they are worth and rushed in to embracing every single stat an overworked journalist, desperate for new content, can dig up. Even those whose obscurity is rivaled only by their irrelevancy. 

 

If I can quote the immortal Heath Barkely from "The Big Valley", "That makes about as much sense as a five legged mule" 

 

Sorry, I get crotchety on Thursdays.

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, eball said:

I'm not even going to waste my time listening to that because if anyone says Josh Allen has already reached what he will be in the NFL then their opinion means nothing to me.  There is literally no reason not to expect Allen to continue to improve, based upon what we've already seen.

 

Yeah, the statement that Troy Aikman was the only QB to ever show major improvement in year 3 had me rolling my eyes. Like I said, Josh doesn't need to reinvent himself, just continue to build his game.

[njbuff]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yeah, the statement that Troy Aikman was the only QB to ever show major improvement in year 3 had me rolling my eyes. Like I said, Josh doesn't need to reinvent himself, just continue to build his game.

 

I guess he never heard of Joe Montana, who did a small little thing like lead his team to the SB title in his third year, for example.

 

Holy moly the so called pundits are braindead.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yeah, the statement that Troy Aikman was the only QB to ever show major improvement in year 3 had me rolling my eyes. Like I said, Josh doesn't need to reinvent himself, just continue to build his game.

It's my firm belief that some analysts/media members don't watch enough Bills games to have an appreciation for the sort of 'work' Allen needs. Like you say he doesn't need a complete overhaul, but incremental steps that are well within the capacity of a solid QB/staff relationship.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

It's my firm belief that some analysts/media members don't watch enough Bills games to have an appreciation for the sort of 'work' Allen needs. Like you say he doesn't need a complete overhaul, but incremental steps that are well within the capacity of a solid QB/staff relationship.

 

Right. They only refer to the Cowboys game and the Titans game. Meaning they only saw the major, nationally broadcasted games. Which also happened to be his best, and one of his worst, all season.

[GoBills808]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Right. They only refer to the Cowboys game and the Titans game. Meaning they only saw the major, nationally broadcasted games. Which also happened to be his best, and one of his worst, all season.

That and probably a cursory glance at his stats. Which are (EXCUSES ALERT ExCUSES ALERT) disproportionately informed by his drop rate...which would probably take more time to research than your average talking head has allotted re: Buffalo QBs. 

 

Personally I think Allen is going to blow people's minds this year. I mean, even in the Texans game which was far from his finest hour it seemed like Booger and Tessitore couldn't wrap their heads around the fact that he was able to complete passes in a competent manner. And these guys were announcing an actual NFL playoff game!

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

That and probably a cursory glance at his stats. Which are (EXCUSES ALERT ExCUSES ALERT) disproportionately informed by his drop rate...which would probably take more time to research than your average talking head has allotted re: Buffalo QBs. 

 

Personally I think Allen is going to blow people's minds this year. I mean, even in the Texans game which was far from his finest hour it seemed like Booger and Tessitore couldn't wrap their heads around the fact that he was able to complete passes in a competent manner. And these guys were announcing an actual NFL playoff game!

 

Blowing our minds would be great.

 

But even just making the same amount of improvement he did over the last offseason would pretty much solidify him as a Franchise QB.

[JESSEFEFFER]

Joe Marino devoted Wednesday's show to Josh and two big takeaways I had are these:

 

--Amazing correlation between 2014 Cam Newton (his year 4 and just prior to his MVP year) and 2019 Josh Allen.

 

--2019 JA was a much bigger part of his team's success than 2018 Mitch Trubisky and 2017 Blake Bortles were to theirs.  This is for those who are nervous about Josh having a 2020 season like Mitch did in 2019 and Blake did in 2018.  There is a nonzero chance it could happen and it would put the progress the Bills have made in the last two years at risk.

 

In this podcast they make the "20 games as a starter we know who they are" statement without pointing out how much better Josh was after game 4 (start 15?)  So, this discussion falls into the realm of 2 guys chatting without having done any research.

Edited May 29, 2020 by JESSEFEFFER

[Nihilarian]

27 minutes ago, eball said:

I'm not even going to waste my time listening to that because if anyone says Josh Allen has already reached what he will be in the NFL then their opinion means nothing to me.  There is literally no reason not to expect Allen to continue to improve, based upon what we've already seen.

I fully agree!

 

I think about Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen who all had a full four seasons in a big time college program to help in their development.  Allen basically had only two seasons in a small time college program that has never led to a developed a top NFL QB.

 

Allen spent his first season in the NFL running like crazy behind a bad offensive line. Which is not very conducive to helping develop a pocket QB. Allen still only has 27 starts out of 32, so I expect him to continually improve over the next few years. 

 

The upcoming 2020 season looks to be much, much more difficult over the 2019 season in which they had the 8th easiest schedule. The Bills also faced a bunch of podunk QB's along that journey. The 2020 schedule is rated as the 5th hardest. The only good thing about that is that the Patriots have the #1, the Jets #2, the Dolphins #3, the 49ers #4. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

17 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

That and probably a cursory glance at his stats. Which are (EXCUSES ALERT ExCUSES ALERT) disproportionately informed by his drop rate...which would probably take more time to research than your average talking head has allotted re: Buffalo QBs. 

 

Personally I think Allen is going to blow people's minds this year. I mean, even in the Texans game which was far from his finest hour it seemed like Booger and Tessitore couldn't wrap their heads around the fact that he was able to complete passes in a competent manner. And these guys were announcing an actual NFL playoff game!

Booger blamed Josh for a late throw when JB messed up his sideline footwork and called Cody Ford selfish for the less than forcible bump of a block that got flagged.

 

How much of the narrative on Josh changes if that call isn't made?

[Prospector]

1 hour ago, Seasons1992 said:

https://www.theringer.com/2020/5/26/21270942/cases-for-against-the-next-generation-of-nfl-qbs-with-kevin-clark

 

"Fast forward" to 55 minutes left. Ryen talks with Kevin Clark about Josh. Good stuff.

Not good stuff

[inthebuff]

This is the article that they were talking about....

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/bills-josh-allen-jets-sam-darnold-need-breakout-seasons-to-avoid-path-of-mediocrity-210211036.html

[Jauronimo]

16 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I fully agree!

 

I think about Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen who all had a full four seasons in a big time college program to help in their development.  Allen basically had only two seasons in a small time college program that has never led to a developed a top NFL QB.

 

Allen spent his first season in the NFL running like crazy behind a bad offensive line. Which is not very conducive to helping develop a pocket QB. Allen still only has 27 starts out of 32, so I expect him to continually improve over the next few years. 

 

The upcoming 2020 season looks to be much, much more difficult over the 2019 season in which they had the 8th easiest schedule. The Bills also faced a bunch of podunk QB's along that journey. The 2020 schedule is rated as the 5th hardest. The only good thing about that is that the Patriots have the #1, the Jets #2, the Dolphins #3, the 49ers #4. 

Agreed 100%. He's basically still a rookie.  Like Tyrod.

[bigK14094]

56 minutes ago, eball said:

I'm not even going to waste my time listening to that because if anyone says Josh Allen has already reached what he will be in the NFL then their opinion means nothing to me.  There is literally no reason not to expect Allen to continue to improve, based upon what we've already seen.

Yes, he came from Wyoming.....not the SEC and didn't face the strongest competition in college.  He has almost 2 seasons under his belt now as a pro...and, imho, is still on the learning curve.  His head is right, and I think the stability of the coaching staff and his O line is a big factor.  It is also true those folks also will improve this year...Daboll and company, and the O line as well.  Adding Diggs and a better 2d running back will also help.( although Gore was a real pro for many games much to my surprise based on his age.)

[Ya Digg?]

It just seems to be another one of those discussions where the narrative was already set on Josh before he was even drafted and people don't want to change their minds about it.  They used a bunch of stats (which can be manipulated however you want them to look) and then said he won't change at any point going forward.The thing about that statement is that the other narrative about Allen coming out of college was that he was going to be a project and definitely needed a couple of years to develop, but none of these guys ever bring that up any more.  It's just a reminder that these guys are here more for entertainment than analysis

[ngbills]

How much you wanna make a bet I can throw a football over them mountains?... Yeah... Coach woulda put me in fourth quarter, we would've been state champions. No doubt. No doubt in my mind.

[Prospector]

25 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

It just seems to be another one of those discussions where the narrative was already set on Josh before he was even drafted and people don't want to change their minds about it.  They used a bunch of stats (which can be manipulated however you want them to look) and then said he won't change at any point going forward.The thing about that statement is that the other narrative about Allen coming out of college was that he was going to be a project and definitely needed a couple of years to develop, but none of these guys ever bring that up any more.  It's just a reminder that these guys are here more for entertainment than analysis

This, a thousand times over... they said he was a project and needed a few years, but now they can make a decision after a year and a half?! Wtf?!

[Shaw66]

I agree with a lot of others here - maybe we're all just homers - who think we haven't seen all that we're going to get out of Allen.   A few miscellaneous points:

 

1.  I'm sick of hearing about Allen's deep ball.  Football Outsiders measured deep ball accuracy over the past two seasons.  Average was 46%, Allen was 40.   He had a horrible 2019, but he had an excellent 2018.

 

2.  I'm sick of hearing that if you haven't done it in the first two years, you aren't going to do it.   These guys go out and collect evidence about other QBs who made it or didn't, etc.   The fact is, there are very few QBs who have made it, so they don't represent a large enough sample size to prove that their way was the only way.   Plus, as I've said here often, John Elway was as bad as Allen for YEARS and didn't become a top-10 passer until his ninth season in the league.   

 

3.  These guys ignore his year one to year two improvement.   

 

4.  These guys talk about Lamar Jackson like he's a superstar.   I seriously doubt it.   At the end of their careers, the characteristic that matters most for successful QBs is brains.   The game keeps changing, the defenses keep changing, and the QBs who succeed have brains.   Here's a list of recent Super Bowl winning QBs and their Woberlic scores:

 

Eli Manning 39

Aaron Rodgers 35

Tom Brady 33

Drew Brees 28

Russell Wilson 28

Joe Flacco 27

Ben Roethlisberger 25

Mahomes 24

Watson (just for comparison) 20.

 

Lamar Jackson was 13.  Josh Allen was 37.   

 

I see no reason to conclude yet that Allen isn't going to be great.   These guys all just continue to recite the narrative they've recited forever.   Bills suck, Allen's a project, Allen's not accurate, blah, blah, blah.   

 

All I know is this:   I watch the games.  I see Allen make any throw you want.   I see him make incredible plays.   I see a leader.   I see someone worth waiting for.  

Edited May 28, 2020 by Shaw66

[Happy]

12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

All I know is this:   I watch the games.  I see Allen make any throw you want.   I see him make incredible plays.   I see a leader.   I see someone worth waiting for.  

 

Totally agree.  Patience will pay off with Josh.  I know he makes some bad decisions/throws, but that is part of the growing process; I want to see McDermott and Daboll let Josh sling it and not try to manage the game.  I suspect that may have been a big part of the problem last year, that Josh was trying to be too careful with the long ball.

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Agreed 100%. He's basically still a rookie.  Like Tyrod.

Allen is going to have a hangover and miss a day of TC and we’re gonna hear “he didn’t have a full offseason!” for 12 months.

[PromoTheRobot]

4 hours ago, eball said:

I'm not even going to waste my time listening to that because if anyone says Josh Allen has already reached what he will be in the NFL then their opinion means nothing to me.  There is literally no reason not to expect Allen to continue to improve, based upon what we've already seen.

 

That take, saying Josh is who he is, is just the last attempt to validate his draft grade. People won't let go of it.

[MJS]

Allen can easily be a 4000 yard, 30 TD passer in the next year or two. He can even easily get over that mythical 60% completion percentage.

 

Not much needs to change for that to happen. Hopefully Daboll is actually a good OC and won't hold Allen and the offense back. Haven't made my mind up on him yet.

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Allen can easily be a 4000 yard, 30 TD passer in the next year or two. He can even easily get over that mythical 60% completion percentage.

 

Not much needs to change for that to happen. Hopefully Daboll is actually a good OC and won't hold Allen and the offense back. Haven't made my mind up on him yet.

 

If Allen went from a kid who could barely score a TD at Wyoming to someone who can easily throw for 4K yards and 30 TD’s, maybe let’s give Dabs some credit.

19 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

You see no reason to conclude Josh Allen isn’t going to be great? I like Josh but that’s a ridiculous statement at this point. 

 

Hes not even in the top half of the league for starting QBs. He does make incredible plays and then follows it up with a WTF was that throw in the dirt or over someone’s head. He’s not consistently good yet which is what separates the good/great QBs from the bad or average ones.

My favorite part of that post was when he said Josh’s progress from year 1 to 2 was ignored, and then ignored Lamar going from bad to MVP in year 1 to 2. 

[MJS]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

If Allen went from a kid who could barely score a TD at Wyoming to someone who can easily throw for 4K yards and 30 TD’s, maybe let’s give Dabs some credit.

 

My favorite part of that post was when he said Josh’s progress from year 1 to 2 was ignored, and then ignored Lamar going from bad to MVP in year 1 to 2. 

Lamar wasn't really bad in year 1, though.

 

I don't know if Daboll deserves credit or not. I really don't. He might, I just don't know. He's never had a good offense in the NFL, but then he's never had a lot of talent to work with. I'm a little concerned that he is running a very complex scheme, but maybe it will all be fine.

 

I KNOW that Allen deserves a lot of credit because I see him out there making plays and his potential, ability, and athleticism are easy to see.

 

Like I said, I haven't made up my mind on Daboll. I think after this year I will.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Not sure I'll agree with the assertion that we've already seen "who Josh is" and that it won't change. It isn't like he has to re-invent his entire game, just start hitting deep balls, and a few other minor tweaks. The same "incremental improvement" that he then says he expects out of Darnold. So which is it?

 

There does seem to be a double standard then if that is what he says of Darnold but not Allen.

 

Josh Allen QB rating with season broken into halves:

 

2018- Games 1-6:    61.8

2018- Games 7-12:  72.6

2019- Games 1-8:    82.9

2019- Games 9-15:  88.8

 

Sam Darnold QB rating with season broken into halves:

 

2018-Games 1-7: 74.3

2018- Games 8-13: 81.4

2019- Games 1-7: 81.1

2019- Games 8-13: 87.9

 

Allen has clearly been making incremental improvements. Or even chunk improvements. 

 

I think Allen suffers from a few things when compared to guys like Darnold and Mayfield even though common sense should tell us that Allen is every bit as good as those guys right now if not better and has just as good a chance to be great as those guys.

 

1. Allen was ridiculed coming out as a guy that was not ready and so many questioned if he was even worth a day two pick let alone top 10 overall. To be fair a lot of the criticism was maybe warranted. Heck, his 61.8 QB rating in his first six NFL starts backs that up. But because that was the narrative, many have not been able to see past the initial scouting report and their initial biases against Allen.

 

2. The bad start out of the gate with the exception of the one Vikings game. As I mentioned, it helped to re-affirm in the critics eyes that he was over drafted and not ready. 

 

3. The perception that he is an athlete playing the QB position.

[HappyDays]

If you want a podcast from someone that pays attention to the Bills, yesterday's Locked on Bills was all about Josh Allen:

 

https://open.spotify.com/episode/67uuJl6b3m5zFFVxWpIEzc?si=DvBxQ9wSShi_wB0ZDDvOVA

[FireChans]

36 minutes ago, MJS said:

Lamar wasn't really bad in year 1, though.

 

I don't know if Daboll deserves credit or not. I really don't. He might, I just don't know. He's never had a good offense in the NFL, but then he's never had a lot of talent to work with. I'm a little concerned that he is running a very complex scheme, but maybe it will all be fine.

 

I KNOW that Allen deserves a lot of credit because I see him out there making plays and his potential, ability, and athleticism are easy to see.

 

Like I said, I haven't made up my mind on Daboll. I think after this year I will.

He was compared to 2019. 

 

Either way, I don’t think that supports the opposing argument. If LJ went from decent to MVP, he’s got an even BETTER chance of being a good QB.

[JESSEFEFFER]

52 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

If you want a podcast from someone that pays attention to the Bills, yesterday's Locked on Bills was all about Josh Allen:

 

https://open.spotify.com/episode/67uuJl6b3m5zFFVxWpIEzc?si=DvBxQ9wSShi_wB0ZDDvOVA

 

I don't know what Joe makes at TDN and with Locked On, but WGR should just hire him to do One Bills Live and be done with it.  He probably could still do the draft stuff because the GR guys go to the Senior Bowl and combine anyways.  He knows front office and roster personnel throughout the league better than most.  

 

As for this particular episode, it is worth a listen for the purposes of this thread discussion.

[Nihilarian]

5 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Agreed 100%. He's basically still a rookie.  Like Tyrod.

Man, I feel badly for you if look at Josh Allen and see another Tyrod Taylor. 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

There does seem to be a double standard then if that is what he says of Darnold but not Allen.

 

Josh Allen QB rating with season broken into halves:

 

2018- Games 1-6:    61.8

2018- Games 7-12:  72.6

2019- Games 1-8:    82.9

2019- Games 9-15:  88.8

 

 

That's an interesting progression.  I think it reflects the progress we've seen.  

 

I also think so many of these self-proclaimed experts don't watch all the games.  

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

There does seem to be a double standard then if that is what he says of Darnold but not Allen.

 

Josh Allen QB rating with season broken into halves:

 

2018- Games 1-6:    61.8

2018- Games 7-12:  72.6

2019- Games 1-8:    82.9

2019- Games 9-15:  88.8

 

Sam Darnold QB rating with season broken into halves:

 

2018-Games 1-7: 74.3

2018- Games 8-13: 81.4

2019- Games 1-7: 81.1

2019- Games 8-13: 87.9

 

Allen has clearly been making incremental improvements. Or even chunk improvements. 

 

I think Allen suffers from a few things when compared to guys like Darnold and Mayfield even though common sense should tell us that Allen is every bit as good as those guys right now if not better and has just as good a chance to be great as those guys.

 

1. Allen was ridiculed coming out as a guy that was not ready and so many questioned if he was even worth a day two pick let alone top 10 overall. To be fair a lot of the criticism was maybe warranted. Heck, his 61.8 QB rating in his first six NFL starts backs that up. But because that was the narrative, many have not been able to see past the initial scouting report and their initial biases against Allen.

 

2. The bad start out of the gate with the exception of the one Vikings game. As I mentioned, it helped to re-affirm in the critics eyes that he was over drafted and not ready. 

 

3. The perception that he is an athlete playing the QB position.

Played some monster defenses the second half of 2019 too

[John from Riverside]

"I think Josh Allen is what he is"

 

"Even though he is improving"

 

??????????????????????????????????????????????

[Royale with Cheese]

Did you guys know Josh Allen went to Wyoming?

[transplantbillsfan]

Same ole same ole ridiculous analytics argument.

 

I'm sick of it.

 

They constantly bring up the word "anomaly" as an argument as to why Josh Allen won't improve. Clearly they just haven't looked at his history.

 

He's already an anomaly.

Edited May 29, 2020 by transplantbillsfan

[njbuff]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Did you guys know Josh Allen went to Wyoming?

 

I thought he went to Kentucky. ?