PromoTheRobot Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 (edited) https://theathletic.com/1777429/2020/04/27/consensus-big-board-ranking-the-2020-nfl-draft-classes-from-1-to-32/ Quote So let’s project for 2020. Here, we calculated the expected value each team earned on the pick and subtracted the capital of the pick, using an equation that weighs the value of the team’s selections (capital) against the draftees’ rankings in the Consensus Big Board (value). We also take into account positional needs — if a team, for example, drafts a running back because he’s the highest-ranked player on the board but then never plays that running back because there are five better ones on the roster, that wasn’t a good pick. (For more information on how we arrived at the capital and value numbers, check out last year’s article.) Most teams ended up over 100 percent in the return on investment column because the positional need calculation gave them boosts, which means that some teams that graded poorly in other draft class rankings still ended up net positive in value here — just not as positive as the other teams around them. Quote As for Buffalo, San Francisco and Houston, there are three different stories. Analysts were high on Buffalo’s draft but not nearly high enough — Buffalo gained value with every single pick except kicker Tyler Bass. A first-round talent in the second, a third-round talent in the fifth and a pair of fifth-round talents in the seventh highlight their draft. They consider K Tyler Bass the #14 reach of the draft. Edited April 28, 2020 by PromoTheRobot 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 So, are they saying drafting for positional need is the way to draft? ( no subscription ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 28, 2020 Author Share Posted April 28, 2020 Just now, Don Otreply said: So, are they saying drafting for positional need is the way to draft? ( no subscription ) No but they gave points for hitting a need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALLEN1QB Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I can never open up half of these things because you have to be a subscriber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turbo44 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 32 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said: https://theathletic.com/1777429/2020/04/27/consensus-big-board-ranking-the-2020-nfl-draft-classes-from-1-to-32/ They consider K Tyler Bass the #14 reach of the draft. Yeah he was the one pick I didn’t love. Huge leg but accuracy is a concern. I wanted Runyan (G) at that pick but Beane must not have liked him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said: No but they gave points for hitting a need. That only makes sense, like Oliver last season, total need driven pick that happened to be filled by an above average prospect. Beane has a knack for filling positional scheme needs, gotta like that guy...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Its actually a very good analysis and too bad its not available to everyone as it would make a good post draft discussion. They basically average a ranking of each player based on 60 different evaluators to get a consensus draft board. Then they take what each team picked and calculate how much of a reach or steal it is. If you had the #10 pick and selected the #25 player then that is a -15 reach. They make more advanced statistical adjustments based on position from previous drafts. So the reach I just gave an example of may be less of one if you're picking a QB vs if you selected a TE or S. So then across the draft they can take your draft capital (positions you picked from) and match it against the big board to compute how much better or worse a team does than the consensus board. It looks like there's also some multiplier for each round. So a -15 reach in the 1st is worse than one in the 7th round. I didn't see an exact formula as to how they made some of those adjustments as I wasn't able to replicate their numbers The Bills ended up #3 across the NFL. Its not clear to me how they accounted for #22+ / Diggs trade in these calculations?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, ALLEN-2-DIGGS-TD!! said: I can never open up half of these things because you have to be a subscriber 2020. That’s life 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 (edited) All I know is the number of hits by Beane far outweigh the number of misses...honestly the only big miss I can think of would be Zay... I mean sure you could say Teller but realistically can anyone after the 3rd round be considered a "miss"? The chances they succeed drop dramatically post round 3. Edited April 28, 2020 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 The article also pours salt on the wound of the pathetic 2016 Bills draft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 You can draft the best player, you can fill a need. Accomplishing both while still getting good value is the key. Buffalo basically drafted a player a rd later than where they were rated. They left the draft with a question mark at punter and saftey depth. It might not be the the players people here were clamoring for. They got guys come August, who are going to push decent player off the roster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I know some people just don't want to pay for their internet sports content but if there's one site you should consider subscribing to it's The Athletic. They really have had the best Bills content by far since their inception, and there's a heluva lot more than that on the site. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, eball said: I know some people just don't want to pay for their internet sports content but if there's one site you should consider subscribing to it's The Athletic. They really have had the best Bills content by far since their inception, and there's a heluva lot more than that on the site. well, since you’re willing to go door to door in this uncertain era to sell your subscriptions, young man, what’s the co$t? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, GG said: The article also pours salt on the wound of the pathetic 2016 Bills draft. What did it say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 It's cool but projecting how these rookies adapt to the NFL is nearly impossible and unpredictable. Always Huge busts and shockers , such as UDFA rookies outplaying a 1st rder . That's what makes the NFL and draft so great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said: well, since you’re willing to go door to door in this uncertain era to sell your subscriptions, young man, what’s the co$t? LOL -- I honestly don't know. Maybe $60/year or something like that? I think there are deals also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, eball said: I know some people just don't want to pay for their internet sports content but if there's one site you should consider subscribing to it's The Athletic. They really have had the best Bills content by far since their inception, and there's a heluva lot more than that on the site. But what if you really really hate Joe B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 minute ago, JoPoy88 said: But what if you really really hate Joe B? Then I'd say you have bigger issues than deciding whether or not to pay for sports coverage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said: https://theathletic.com/1777429/2020/04/27/consensus-big-board-ranking-the-2020-nfl-draft-classes-from-1-to-32/ They consider K Tyler Bass the #14 reach of the draft. They have the #2 based on ROI from the amount of draft capital they have vs. the value across the athletics consensus big board. Based on where kickers sit on the big board top 300 (probably not on it), he would be selected like 70 spots too high. That's considered a reach. 15 minutes ago, FireChans said: What did it say? That at the time - we had value picks in ragland, lawson, and cardale jones based on where selected vs. where they sat on the big board. 4 years later, and 2 of those players vastly underperformed, and lawson while not a bust isn't necessarily outplaying his draft position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 40 minutes ago, eball said: Then I'd say you have bigger issues than deciding whether or not to pay for sports coverage. *really really hate Joe B’s coverage eball, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 42 minutes ago, dneveu said: They have the #2 based on ROI from the amount of draft capital they have vs. the value across the athletics consensus big board. Based on where kickers sit on the big board top 300 (probably not on it), he would be selected like 70 spots too high. That's considered a reach. That at the time - we had value picks in ragland, lawson, and cardale jones based on where selected vs. where they sat on the big board. 4 years later, and 2 of those players vastly underperformed, and lawson while not a bust isn't necessarily outplaying his draft position. Lol that comparison was drawn on here a few days ago. Let’s hope the result is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, cage said: Its actually a very good analysis and too bad its not available to everyone as it would make a good post draft discussion. They basically average a ranking of each player based on 60 different evaluators to get a consensus draft board. Then they take what each team picked and calculate how much of a reach or steal it is. If you had the #10 pick and selected the #25 player then that is a -15 reach. They make more advanced statistical adjustments based on position from previous drafts. So the reach I just gave an example of may be less of one if you're picking a QB vs if you selected a TE or S. So then across the draft they can take your draft capital (positions you picked from) and match it against the big board to compute how much better or worse a team does than the consensus board. It looks like there's also some multiplier for each round. So a -15 reach in the 1st is worse than one in the 7th round. I didn't see an exact formula as to how they made some of those adjustments as I wasn't able to replicate their numbers The Bills ended up #3 across the NFL. Its not clear to me how they accounted for #22+ / Diggs trade in these calculations?? This sounds great. But is it? How good are these evaluators? How many good evaluators are there, actually, not working as NFL scouts? It seems like using 60 "evaluators," instead of say 20, only waters down the quality of the evaluator pool. Edited April 28, 2020 by hondo in seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 hour ago, eball said: I know some people just don't want to pay for their internet sports content but if there's one site you should consider subscribing to it's The Athletic. They really have had the best Bills content by far since their inception, and there's a heluva lot more than that on the site. Big picture. People pulling out content from local news companies have hastened the death of local news companies. You may be happy with the QBs analysis, but really pissed off that the local comptroller was embezzling funds or the mayor has neo-nazi roots and no one was around to tell you about it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fergie's ire Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 hour ago, matter2003 said: All I know is the number of hits by Beane far outweigh the number of misses...honestly the only big miss I can think of would be Zay... I mean sure you could say Teller but realistically can anyone after the 3rd round be considered a "miss"? The chances they succeed drop dramatically post round 3. And Beane didn't draft Zay....unless you believe the conspiracy theory that he was orchestrating our draft while working for the Panthers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, fergie's ire said: And Beane didn't draft Zay....unless you believe the conspiracy theory that he was orchestrating our draft while working for the Panthers. Valid point...I always forget he didn't come in until after that first draft McDermott was here...does Beane have a miss yet in the draft here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, FireChans said: Lol that comparison was drawn on here a few days ago. Let’s hope the result is better. Lawson at 54 isn't too bad tbh. Same with Cardale in the 5th. Ragland was also a trade up to 41... that cost us pick 117. Prescott went 135 to Cardales 139... If we are looking QB in the 4th. Could have Prescott and Tyrod to start McD era in 2017. Oops. 1 minute ago, matter2003 said: Valid point...I always forget he didn't come in until after that first draft McDermott was here...does Beane have a miss yet in the draft here? I don't consider anything after round 5 like miss-able. McCloud and Proehl were misses but we found foster for nothing so, means nothing. Even Teller got a return on draft picks before they released him. Joseph didn't play so he's the only true ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Turbo44 said: Yeah he was the one pick I didn’t love. Huge leg but accuracy is a concern. I wanted Runyan (G) at that pick but Beane must not have liked him Josh has a huge arm but accuracy was a concern. That's working out so far. Hauschka's days are numbered and if this kid can kick a 50 yarder standing still, I can live with 78-80% his first year or two. Hauschka can't kick from 50 anymore and Sean knows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 hour ago, GG said: The article also pours salt on the wound of the pathetic 2016 Bills draft. Yeah, I got a kick out of that. They evaluated who was viewed as a steal as those being selected in some range outside of their ranking on their big board. For the Bills, Lawson, Ragland, and C. Jones were all picked beyond their projections. They then identified them as 'steals" on whether or not they "panned out." I assume that meant they were retained by the teams who drafted them. All three were designated correctly as NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 24 minutes ago, SDS said: Big picture. People pulling out content from local news companies have hastened the death of local news companies. You may be happy with the QBs analysis, but really pissed off that the local comptroller was embezzling funds or the mayor has neo-nazi roots and no one was around to tell you about it. So The Athletic killed local non-sports news? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 minute ago, eball said: So The Athletic killed local non-sports news? Interesting. Classifieds first... Recently, the dropping of more subscriptions in favor of The Athletic, has accelerated the decline. Many parts subsidize the news room. Or used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, TPS said: Yeah, I got a kick out of that. They evaluated who was viewed as a steal as those being selected in some range outside of their ranking on their big board. For the Bills, Lawson, Ragland, and C. Jones were all picked beyond their projections. They then identified them as 'steals" on whether or not they "panned out." I assume that meant they were retained by the teams who drafted them. All three were designated correctly as NO. They also missed the glaring No that was Adolphus Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No_Matter_What Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 hours ago, matter2003 said: All I know is the number of hits by Beane far outweigh the number of misses...honestly the only big miss I can think of would be Zay... Zay was picked prior Beane's arrival, wasn't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 another great draft.....extend beane now....before his price goes higher than tre...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saundena Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Curious to know what they said about SF and especially Houston (where I live). BoB is the most hated man in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TroutDog Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 hour ago, SDS said: Classifieds first... Recently, the dropping of more subscriptions in favor of The Athletic, has accelerated the decline. Many parts subsidize the news room. Or used to. I subscribe to The Athletic and Rochester D & C because local journalism is so critical. These local ‘papers’ ask so little (about $8 per month) that it’s a no brainer to me. The Athletic is another story: love their writing, both local and ‘local national’. It’s a new take and I appreciate it. Just my opinion...and I have the few bucks a month that both cost. If others do, they’re worth investing in because, if you do, you can turn off ESPN which everyone here seems to loathe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ticketssince61 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 5 hours ago, cage said: Its actually a very good analysis and too bad its not available to everyone as it would make a good post draft discussion. They basically average a ranking of each player based on 60 different evaluators to get a consensus draft board. Then they take what each team picked and calculate how much of a reach or steal it is. If you had the #10 pick and selected the #25 player then that is a -15 reach. They make more advanced statistical adjustments based on position from previous drafts. So the reach I just gave an example of may be less of one if you're picking a QB vs if you selected a TE or S. So then across the draft they can take your draft capital (positions you picked from) and match it against the big board to compute how much better or worse a team does than the consensus board. It looks like there's also some multiplier for each round. So a -15 reach in the 1st is worse than one in the 7th round. I didn't see an exact formula as to how they made some of those adjustments as I wasn't able to replicate their numbers The Bills ended up #3 across the NFL. Its not clear to me how they accounted for #22+ / Diggs trade in these calculations?? Do they weight the pick by the round? For Example, picking a #100 ranked player with the overall #1 pick is much worse than picking a #300 ranked player with the #201nd pick Hope everyone is safe and healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 hours ago, eball said: So The Athletic killed local non-sports news? Interesting. I didn’t know you were such a shill for them. Or so humorless now. You used to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike in Horseheads Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 I'd say the Bills are fortunate this year that BPA because we need everything days are over. So makes sense to identify spots needing a patch or upgrade. I hope this works out having the Patriots at 31 makes me happy. But I want them to be 7-9,6-10, etc for years AKA QB hell not bottom feeders and getting top pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 5 hours ago, FireChans said: What did it say? Let me get 5 dollah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaninSarasota Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 6 hours ago, ALLEN-2-DIGGS-TD!! said: I can never open up half of these things because you have to be a subscriber that's why PTR clearly uses the word "paywall" in his thread title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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