Josh Allen Vs Baker Mayfield AND SAM DARNOLD

[wiley16350]

Well, with the Corona virus giving me more time on the weekends, I decided that I would work on some adjusted stats.  I had already finished Allen but never shared them because people have cited that they would like to have some kind of comparison or they think the stats are useless.  Since there are people out there that have bashed Josh Allen by claiming that Baker Mayfield was better last year, i.e. PFF, I decided I would do all of Mayfield's games to verify that belief.  I also included a chart of how the opposing QB's performed against the Bills this year to give a 3rd reference of comparison.  As I have stated before, the PFF grading system is really a big time throw vs turnover metric and they don't put enough stock into the short and intermediate throws.  Mayfield was much better at the deep ball, giving him a big advantage in the PFF system.  My turnover totals had them very similar so it is easy to see why the PFF system has Mayfield higher.

 

The problem though is that big time throws and turnovers aren't stable from year to year, so it's not really a good gauge of how good a QB can be in the long term.  I don't think it's a good gauge of how well a QB played overall in any individual year either because it excludes a lot of other information.  Even though Mayfield was much better than Allen with the deep ball and had a 1% higher adjusted completion percentage, I had Allen with a better average.  That is because Allen was more productive in the short to intermediate range.  Mayfield got a lot of his production from screens and passes to the flats and within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.  Despite being more proficient with the deep ball, Mayfield wasn't nearly as necessary for the production of points.  The Bills needed Allen to perform most of the time or they weren't very good on offense.  There was a lot of drives were Mayfield just didn't have to do much to get points whether it was YAC production or a great running game.  So the overarching point is that deep ball passing doesn't necessarily lead to point production.  There are 2 main reasons for this.  1. Mayfield had too many turnovers in the red zone.  2. Some of his best throws were dropped or interfered with and while that was good in the moment, those passes didn't always put the Browns in scoring range and they found a way to punt instead.  Point production is what matters most and being consistent in the short to intermediate range is the best way to accomplish that.  It is the main reason Tom Brady has been so good for so many years.  His deep ball consistency wanes year to year but he is always good in the short to intermediate range.  That is what is so promising about Allen last year.

 

The other main PFF metric is turnovers and while Allen and Mayfield are less than 2 turnovers apart, Allen was 0.6% better.  There is also a big difference between their turnovers.  Allen was charged with 7 more fumbles than Mayfield was.  He just had a major issue with them last year but that is just another very unstable stat from year to year so it is reasonable to expect him to improve on that.  That same differential of 7 is reversed when it comes to interceptions, with Mayfield having 7 more of those.  As we know, Allen had an issue with those early in the year but once he stopped trying to play hero ball, he was able to drastically reduce his int's.  Mayfield on the other hand, had a consistent issue with them and while he wasn't as bad as his official numbers, he still wasn't in a good enough range.  Mayfield couldn't curb his int's because they were more varied than Allen was.  He had poor throws, aggressive gunslinger throws and bad decisions.  It is the biggest problem he had last year and he needs to improve on that.  The last part of the turnover discussion is the hidden ones that don't show up anywhere in the stats.  These are bad 3rd down throws, bad 3rd down reads, sacks and other bad plays that led to the team punting.  Allen was better than Mayfield in that category too.  It isn't separated out but if you subtract the charged fumbles and charged int's from the total turnovers in the total effectiveness rating, you can find the difference.

 

Ultimately, I have a Total QB effectiveness rating (which is at the bottom of the attached sheets) that combines, passing, rushing, sacks and turnovers into a traditional QB rating stat line, adjusted based on what actually happened on the field and the circumstances they faced.  Here is the final judgment on the two.

 

MAYFIELD
529.50 - attempts (total plays he had a true opportunity to make a play)
403.30 - Positive (number of plays he had a positive influence on)

76.2% - Positive %

3698.75 - yards (number of yards the QB was worth, including air yards, rushing yards and avoiding sack yards)

6.99 - avg

29.27 - TD's

5.5 - TD%

32.75 - Turnovers (number of times the QB was the reason a drive ended)

5.0% - TO^%

92.3 - Total QB Effectiveness Rating

 

ALLEN
565 ATT

439.7 POS

77.8 POS%

4024.5 YDS
7.12 AVG

39.21 TD's

6.9 TD%

31.10 TO

4.4 TO%

101.1 TER

 

DARNOLD

446.75 ATT

322.6 POS

72.2 POS%

2708 YDS

6.06 AVG

28.24 TD'S

6.3 TD%

28.75 TO

5.3 TO%

86.4 TER

 

Darnold played behind the worst line of these 3 QB's but I felt like there were too many times where he contributed to pressure.  I also think that even though he was under pressure more, some of that was just blockers getting pushed near him and he refused to move in the pocket to make more room to throw.  The 2 main issues with Darnold then to me is pocket presence and decision making.  His decision making issues go back to college, so I'm not sure if how much he'll improve but less pressure should make him better in that area.  I won't say that pocket presence was a constant issue but there were some games where it was an issue that came up often.  The biggest reason Darnold was the lowest of these 3 is because he had 5 games with less than a 70 rating and 3 of those under 60.  Allen had 1 game under 80 (the Patriots game in week 4) so he was much more consistent in at least being productive even if he was turning the ball over.  Mayfield had 2 games under 70 with 1 game in the 70's.  To make it look even worse for Darnold is that he played in 3 less games than Mayfield and Allen did.  There was a period from week 9 to week 12 where I really liked how Darnold was playing and even for weeks 13-15 he played well enough so the end of the season had more good than bad.  He did finish poorly the last 2 weeks of the season because of turnovers but the Jets won those games in spite of that.

 

Honestly, I like all 3 of these QB's to some extent.  I won't make any declarations of which one is the best because they all have things to improve on and the team around them will have a lot to say about their success.  Allen needs to improve his deep ball and be more willing to check down.  Mayfield will most likely be better if his protection improves.  Interceptions were his main problem but I think it was more about pressure than his skills as he has shown in the past to be a better decision maker.  Darnold needs to be a better decision maker and maybe better in the pocket.

J.ALLEN-2019-SC.pdf 2019 - Bills Opponents.pdf B.MAYFIELD-2019-SC.pdf

S.DARNOLD-2019-SC.pdf

Edited April 28, 2020 by wiley16350
added Sam Darnold information

[BringBackFergy]

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[Phil The Thrill]

Great analysis!??????

[ganesh]

The NFL and the media is hung up on "accuracy" when qualifying aa QB.   They prefer QBs who have good/great accuracy and distance QBs that do not.  They go by Metrics dished out to them due to fantasy football.  If a QB does not meet  the metrics (65% completions) the QB is setup for failure. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, wiley16350 said:

Well, with the Corona virus giving me more time on the weekends, I decided that I would work on some adjusted stats.  I had already finished Allen but never shared them because people have cited that they would like to have some kind of comparison or they think the stats are useless.  Since there are people out there that have bashed Josh Allen by claiming that Baker Mayfield was better last year, i.e. PFF, I decided I would do all of Mayfield's games to verify that belief.  I also included a chart of how the opposing QB's performed against the Bills this year to give a 3rd reference of comparison.  As I have stated before, the PFF grading system is really a big time throw vs turnover metric and they don't put enough stock into the short and intermediate throws.  Mayfield was much better at the deep ball, giving him a big advantage in the PFF system.  My turnover totals had them very similar so it is easy to see why the PFF system has Mayfield higher.

 

The problem though is that big time throws and turnovers aren't stable from year to year, so it's not really a good gauge of how good a QB can be in the long term.  I don't think it's a good gauge of how well a QB played overall in any individual year either because it excludes a lot of other information.  Even though Mayfield was much better than Allen with the deep ball and had a 1% higher adjusted completion percentage, I had Allen with a better average.  That is because Allen was more productive in the short to intermediate range.  Mayfield got a lot of his production from screens and passes to the flats and within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.  Despite being more proficient with the deep ball, Mayfield wasn't nearly as necessary for the production of points.  The Bills needed Allen to perform most of the time or they weren't very good on offense.  There was a lot of drives were Mayfield just didn't have to do much to get points whether it was YAC production or a great running game.  So the overarching point is that deep ball passing doesn't necessarily lead to point production.  There are 2 main reasons for this.  1. Mayfield had too many turnovers in the red zone.  2. Some of his best throws were dropped or interfered with and while that was good in the moment, those passes didn't always put the Browns in scoring range and they found a way to punt instead.  Point production is what matters most and being consistent in the short to intermediate range is the best way to accomplish that.  It is the main reason Tom Brady has been so good for so many years.  His deep ball consistency wanes year to year but he is always good in the short to intermediate range.  That is what is so promising about Allen last year.

 

The other main PFF metric is turnovers and while Allen and Mayfield are less than 2 turnovers apart, Allen was 0.6% better.  There is also a big difference between their turnovers.  Allen was charged with 7 more fumbles than Mayfield was.  He just had a major issue with them last year but that is just another very unstable stat from year to year so it is reasonable to expect him to improve on that.  That same differential of 7 is reversed when it comes to interceptions, with Mayfield having 7 more of those.  As we know, Allen had an issue with those early in the year but once he stopped trying to play hero ball, he was able to drastically reduce his int's.  Mayfield on the other hand, had a consistent issue with them and while he wasn't as bad as his official numbers, he still wasn't in a good enough range.  Mayfield couldn't curb his int's because they were more varied than Allen was.  He had poor throws, aggressive gunslinger throws and bad decisions.  It is the biggest problem he had last year and he needs to improve on that.  The last part of the turnover discussion is the hidden ones that don't show up anywhere in the stats.  These are bad 3rd down throws, bad 3rd down reads, sacks and other bad plays that led to the team punting.  Allen was better than Mayfield in that category too.  It isn't separated out but if you subtract the charged fumbles and charged int's from the total turnovers in the total effectiveness rating, you can find the difference.

 

Ultimately, I have a Total QB effectiveness rating (which is at the bottom of the attached sheets) that combines, passing, rushing, sacks and turnovers into a traditional QB rating stat line, adjusted based on what actually happened on the field and the circumstances they faced.  Here is the final judgment on the two.

 

MAYFIELD
529.50 - attempts (total plays he had a true opportunity to make a play)
403.30 - Positive (number of plays he had a positive influence on)

76.2% - Positive %

3698.75 - yards (number of yards the QB was worth, including air yards, rushing yards and avoiding sack yards)

6.99 - avg

29.27 - TD's

5.5 - TD%

32.75 - Turnovers (number of times the QB was the reason a drive ended)

5.0% - TO^%

92.3 - Total QB Effectiveness Rating

 

ALLEN
565 ATT

439.7 POS

77.8 POS%

4024.5 YDS
7.12 AVG

39.21 TD's

6.9 TD%

31.10 TO

4.4 TO%

101.1 TER

J.ALLEN-2019-SC.pdf 42.06 kB · 3 downloads 2019 - Bills Opponents.pdf 39.77 kB · 3 downloads B.MAYFIELD-2019-SC.pdf 41.31 kB · 0 downloads

This was a really cool analysis by the numbers but you’ll need to be a little more objective in how you editorialize the QB’s. 

 

How can you claim turnovers vary widely from year to year, say it’s “reasonable” Josh improves his fumbles, and then say Baker had a consistent issue with turnovers, when he threw much less as a rookie?

 

In Baker’s first seven games, he had 7 TD’s to 12 INT’s. In his last 9, he had 18 TD’s to 9 INT’s. I guess only Josh gets credit for cleaning up the TO’s midway through the year.

Edited April 13, 2020 by FireChans

[Don Otreply]

Just watched the Holy Grail, during which god came from on high and shed his holy light on this troubling situation, conveying that anyone named baker is a sissy boy, and as such Joshua has the almighty’s blessings to put the opponent to the sword, it has been spoken, it shall be so, praise be to god... 

I had to drink a shot every time “king of the Britons was said, Christ, I didn’t think I would last through the whole flick..,

 

Go Bills!!!

[John from Riverside]

Soooooo Allen was better then Mayfield last year (and Baker had the better O team around him)

[wiley16350]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

This was a really cool analysis by the numbers but you’ll need to be a little more objective in how you editorialize the QB’s. 

 

How can you claim turnovers vary widely from year to year, say it’s “reasonable” Josh improves his fumbles, and then say Baker had a consistent issue with turnovers, when he threw much less as a rookie?

 

In Baker’s first seven games, he had 7 TD’s to 12 INT’s. In his last 9, he had 18 TD’s to 9 INT’s. I guess only Josh gets credit for cleaning up the TO’s midway through the year.

Well first of all I was talking about fumbles being unstable, not turnovers.  Essentially, fumbles are more of a fluke thing than int's.  Int's have to be improved by the QB making changes to how he plays the game or understands defenses.  Fumbles can be fixed without the QB necessarily making an effort to avoid them.  Baker's turnover consistency was about this year and doesn't say anything about last year.  The stats you show about Bakers turnovers are just what he was officially charged with.  If you look at my charts, I had him with 8.5 int's in the first 8 games and 10.5 in the last 8 games.  I also had him with some blame for an int in 13 of 16 games.  So I guess that is how I can say that it was a consistent problem.  Allen on the other hand had 7 games out of the first 11 with some blame for an int and then finished the regular season with 5 straight (4.5 actually because he only played half of week 17) games without an interceptable pass.  In total he had 7 out of 15.5 games where he deserved an interception.  That seems to be better than Mayfield.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, wiley16350 said:

Well first of all I was talking about fumbles being unstable, not turnovers.  Essentially, fumbles are more of a fluke thing than int's.  Int's have to be improved by the QB making changes to how he plays the game or understands defenses.  Fumbles can be fixed without the QB necessarily making an effort to avoid them.  Baker's turnover consistency was about this year and doesn't say anything about last year.  The stats you show about Bakers turnovers are just what he was officially charged with.  If you look at my charts, I had him with 8.5 int's in the first 8 games and 10.5 in the last 8 games.  I also had him with some blame for an int in 13 of 16 games.  So I guess that is how I can say that it was a consistent problem.  Allen on the other hand had 7 games out of the first 11 with some blame for an int and then finished the regular season with 5 straight (4.5 actually because he only played half of week 17) games without an interceptable pass.  In total he had 7 out of 15.5 games where he deserved an interception.  That seems to be better than Mayfield.

Oh, your first line of your second paragraph said turnovers and big time throws aren’t stable from year to year. If you are only talking about fumbles in that scenario, I wonder how you came to that conclusion when Allen had 8 fumbles in 11 games as a rookie, and then 14 in 15.5 games in his second year. Seems like a pretty negatively stable statistic to me.

[wiley16350]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Soooooo Allen was better then Mayfield last year (and Baker had the better O team around him)

I would say yes.  There is no doubt he had more skill talent around him.  The offensive line is debate-able in terms of pass protection.  I would have to delve into my numbers more before committing to either one of those.

[wiley16350]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Oh, your first line of your second paragraph said turnovers and big time throws aren’t stable from year to year. If you are only talking about fumbles in that scenario, I wonder how you came to that conclusion when Allen had 8 fumbles in 11 games as a rookie, and then 14 in 15.5 games in his second year. Seems like a pretty negatively stable statistic to me.

I had Allen with only 3.5 fumbles last year, fumbling 0.8% of his plays.  This year I had him fumbling 11.25 of 704 plays for 1.5%.  Pretty much twice as much.

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

41 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Just watched the Holy Grail, during which god came from on high and shed his holy light on this troubling situation, conveying that anyone named baker is a sissy boy, and as such Joshua has the almighty’s blessings to put the opponent to the sword, it has been spoken, it shall be so, praise be to god... 

I had to drink a shot every time “king of the Britons was said, Christ, I didn’t think I would last through the whole flick..,

 

Go Bills!!!

King of the who?

[Gugny]

I think War and Peace is the Cliffs Notes for this post.

[wiley16350]

19 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Oh, your first line of your second paragraph said turnovers and big time throws aren’t stable from year to year. If you are only talking about fumbles in that scenario, I wonder how you came to that conclusion when Allen had 8 fumbles in 11 games as a rookie, and then 14 in 15.5 games in his second year. Seems like a pretty negatively stable statistic to me.

I'll clarify the turnovers being unstable because I can see where I may have contradicted myself.  Fumbles are completely unstable because they are more about what is happening around the QB rather than what the QB is necessarily doing.  There are certain things that increase the likelihood of a fumble and not all defenses do those things.  Pressure from behind, getting hit while throwing, having the ball punched out from behind while the QB is running are near certain fumble opportunities no matter who the QB is.  That can change drastically from year to year because it depends on opponent and the players around the QB.  Fumbles are more about bad luck or tough circumstances than they are about skill.  Interceptions are unstable in the sense that QB's that face more pressure are more likely to throw them and some situations can influence a QB to take chances he shouldn't take.  That means the better the environment for the QB, the less likely he is to throw an interception, for most QB's.  For those reasons some QB's can swing some from year to year if they're on an unstable team.  With that said, a QB's personality and ability to read defenses can make him consistent in making bad decisions.  That is what you have to determine by watching the film.  Jameis Winston and Brett Farve were consistent in making bad decisions and forcing throws and it wasn't necessarily the team around them that was influencing that.  A QB like Drew Bledsoe was more about the team around him and the circumstances that he was playing in.  His int's would tend to come in bunches in games where his team was over matched.

[Don Otreply]

10 minutes ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

King of the who?

King of the auto correct it would appear 

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

1 minute ago, Don Otreply said:

King of the auto correct it would appear 

Well I didn't vote for him

[MJS]

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

The NFL and the media is hung up on "accuracy" when qualifying aa QB.   They prefer QBs who have good/great accuracy and distance QBs that do not.  They go by Metrics dished out to them due to fantasy football.  If a QB does not meet  the metrics (65% completions) the QB is setup for failure. 

What's Fantasy football have to do with it? Josh Allen is well thought of in fantasy football. He puts up more points because of his rushing ability. I'd wager that those who play fantasy football have a better opinion of Josh Allen than those who don't.

[ganesh]

More completions, more yards per play...and that means more chances for points...and that drives fantasy football.  Don't tell me the fantasy gurus don't love those 65% completion QBs...These QBs also involve more of others than just them scoring points...more receptions, more TDs for others too...

[Billl]

1 hour ago, wiley16350 said:

I had Allen with only 3.5 fumbles last year, fumbling 0.8% of his plays.  This year I had him fumbling 11.25 of 704 plays for 1.5%.  Pretty much twice as much.

So instead of having 22 fumbles, he actually has 15.75?  Am I understanding this correctly?

[Ralonzo]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Just watched the Holy Grail, during which god came from on high and shed his holy light on this troubling situation, conveying that anyone named baker is a sissy boy, and as such Joshua has the almighty’s blessings to put the opponent to the sword, it has been spoken, it shall be so, praise be to god... 

 

Your arm's off.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

I had Allen with only 3.5 fumbles last year, fumbling 0.8% of his plays.  This year I had him fumbling 11.25 of 704 plays for 1.5%.  Pretty much twice as much.

 

 

 

Oh, yeah, those half-fumbles and quarter-fumbles will kill you every time. Totally makes sense.

[machine gun kelly]

6 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

I'll clarify the turnovers being unstable because I can see where I may have contradicted myself.  Fumbles are completely unstable because they are more about what is happening around the QB rather than what the QB is necessarily doing.  There are certain things that increase the likelihood of a fumble and not all defenses do those things.  Pressure from behind, getting hit while throwing, having the ball punched out from behind while the QB is running are near certain fumble opportunities no matter who the QB is.  That can change drastically from year to year because it depends on opponent and the players around the QB.  Fumbles are more about bad luck or tough circumstances than they are about skill.  Interceptions are unstable in the sense that QB's that face more pressure are more likely to throw them and some situations can influence a QB to take chances he shouldn't take.  That means the better the environment for the QB, the less likely he is to throw an interception, for most QB's.  For those reasons some QB's can swing some from year to year if they're on an unstable team.  With that said, a QB's personality and ability to read defenses can make him consistent in making bad decisions.  That is what you have to determine by watching the film.  Jameis Winston and Brett Farve were consistent in making bad decisions and forcing throws and it wasn't necessarily the team around them that was influencing that.  A QB like Drew Bledsoe was more about the team around him and the circumstances that he was playing in.  His int's would tend to come in bunches in games where his team was over matched.

Wiley, this isn’t the first IR even second Mayfield vs. Allen thread, but that’s ok as you tried to provide statistically a different perspective.  While I don’t agree with everything you wrote,   Fergy is right.  If you want people to read all the way through you’re points, paragraphs help.  We’re not in creative writing in  8th grade, but just basics to make it easier to read.  
 

Thank you for sharing.

[wiley16350]

6 hours ago, Billl said:

So instead of having 22 fumbles, he actually has 15.75?  Am I understanding this correctly?

For his career, I have him with 14.75 instead of the 22 that he is officially credited with

[Greg S]

If we are going to compare QB's I would be more interested in Allen vs Darnold. He is the guy the Bills will face twice a year every year. Both of them will play an important part in the Bills-Jets rivalry over the next 12-15 years if things go well. Let the Browns and Ravens fans compare Mayfield vs Jackson. Allen and Darnold could be another Kelly-Marino which would makes for some exciting matchups between the teams.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

This was a really cool analysis by the numbers but you’ll need to be a little more objective in how you editorialize the QB’s. 

 

How can you claim turnovers vary widely from year to year, say it’s “reasonable” Josh improves his fumbles, and then say Baker had a consistent issue with turnovers, when he threw much less as a rookie?

 

In Baker’s first seven games, he had 7 TD’s to 12 INT’s. In his last 9, he had 18 TD’s to 9 INT’s. I guess only Josh gets credit for cleaning up the TO’s midway through the year.

First thing I noticed as well ... can’t have it both ways in order to flesh out what you want your narrative to read. 

[SoCal Deek]

Allen can’t be King! He doesn’t have sh&t all over him.

[stinky finger]

8 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Your arm's off.

 

It's just a flesh wound

[whorlnut]

OP...good analysis. 
 

It continues to fascinate me that Mayfield (and Darnold) get the benefit of the doubt from nearly every reporter and analyst, but the same people still spew off that Allen is no good and his accuracy sucks. Blah, blah, blah.
 

Yet there is one of these three that actually improved last year and that’s Allen.  Mayfield actually regressed horribly despite having some elite weapons all around him. Darnold has shown flashes, but nothing yet of the can’t miss variety that pundits were expecting of him. 
 

Guys, we are lucky to have Allen. He’s not a finished product, but he keeps getting better and the team loves him. His drive is relentless and he now has pieces to have sustained success. I’d take him over any of the other two in this post. 

[Billl]

6 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

For his career, I have him with 14.75 instead of the 22 that he is officially credited with

That’s a pretty good deal.  Fumble rates are at an all time low, so it’s a great time to refinance them.

[Putin]

3 hours ago, whorlnut said:

OP...good analysis. 
 

It continues to fascinate me that Mayfield (and Darnold) get the benefit of the doubt from nearly every reporter and analyst, but the same people still spew off that Allen is no good and his accuracy sucks. Blah, blah, blah.
 

Yet there is one of these three that actually improved last year and that’s Allen.  Mayfield actually regressed horribly despite having some elite weapons all around him. Darnold has shown flashes, but nothing yet of the can’t miss variety that pundits were expecting of him. 
 

Guys, we are lucky to have Allen. He’s not a finished product, but he keeps getting better and the team loves him. His drive is relentless and he now has pieces to have sustained success. I’d take him over any of the other two in this post. 

+ 1 

[C.Biscuit97]

5 hours ago, whorlnut said:

OP...good analysis. 
 

It continues to fascinate me that Mayfield (and Darnold) get the benefit of the doubt from nearly every reporter and analyst, but the same people still spew off that Allen is no good and his accuracy sucks. Blah, blah, blah.
 

Yet there is one of these three that actually improved last year and that’s Allen.  Mayfield actually regressed horribly despite having some elite weapons all around him. Darnold has shown flashes, but nothing yet of the can’t miss variety that pundits were expecting of him. 
 

Guys, we are lucky to have Allen. He’s not a finished product, but he keeps getting better and the team loves him. His drive is relentless and he now has pieces to have sustained success. I’d take him over any of the other two in this post. 

1) Allen’s accuracy isn’t good and it’s never been good at any level of football.  Can he improve sure but people need to stop pretending it’s some government conspiracy to discredit Allen.  In today’s nfl, under 60% sucks.  
 

2) were you not on this planet since the football season started?  Mayfield got murdered all year for how much he and the Browns underachieved.  There’s no way you didn’t hear all the criticism.  And darnold has mono that completely sidetracked his season.  
 

No one of these guys have proven that they are franchise guys yet and have a ton to prove this year.  I think Allen has the best overall team around him; Baker has the most talented offense; and Darnold is definitely in the worst situation.  It’s hypothetically but I think it’s interesting to think what each guy would do in a different situation.  I think Darnold would be a stud here.  

[ColoradoBills]

.........another Spy vs Spy thread.

 

[eball]

14 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) Allen’s accuracy isn’t good and it’s never been good at any level of football.  Can he improve sure but people need to stop pretending it’s some government conspiracy to discredit Allen.  In today’s nfl, under 60% sucks.  
 

2) were you not on this planet since the football season started?  Mayfield got murdered all year for how much he and the Browns underachieved.  There’s no way you didn’t hear all the criticism.  And darnold has mono that completely sidetracked his season.  
 

No one of these guys have proven that they are franchise guys yet and have a ton to prove this year.  I think Allen has the best overall team around him; Baker has the most talented offense; and Darnold is definitely in the worst situation.  It’s hypothetically but I think it’s interesting to think what each guy would do in a different situation.  I think Darnold would be a stud here.  

 

[YAWN}

 

Only one of the three improved his play last season -- despite the fact that one of them was gifted a great QB guru and soothsayer as his HC and one of them was gifted his OC as his HC.

 

Only one of the three has been to the playoffs.

 

Allen got better last year.  Significantly.  His deep ball accuracy was horrible but he improved dramatically in the short and intermediate range game.  His accuracy and QB rating at that level was very good.  He was one of the best red zone QBs in the league.  And guess what he's working on this offseason?  His deep ball.  Given the way this kid dedicates himself to improving his weaknesses if you don't expect him to be better this year you're still just clinging to your pre-draft assessment.

[Bring it]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

[YAWN}

 

Only one of the three improved his play last season -- despite the fact that one of them was gifted a great QB guru and soothsayer as his HC and one of them was gifted his OC as his HC.

 

Only one of the three has been to the playoffs.

 

Allen got better last year.  Significantly.  His deep ball accuracy was horrible but he improved dramatically in the short and intermediate range game.  His accuracy and QB rating at that level was very good.  He was one of the best red zone QBs in the league.  And guess what he's working on this offseason?  His deep ball.  Given the way this kid dedicates himself to improving his weaknesses if you don't expect him to be better this year you're still just clinging to your pre-draft assessment.

Agreed! The point about Brady made by the OP stands out. Brady was never a great deep baller but was great at the short and intermediate game! You can’t be a great Qb in this league and have it the other way around!!! Josh really improved  last season where he absolutely needed to!!! Is he great yet? No. Needs to improve accuracy but not as much as some believe. Every Qb has some bad throws in a given game! He also made some ridiculous completions that very few others can!

 To me he proved that he is worth being our franchise Qb going forward!! And I have no doubts at all that he will be great!!

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

[YAWN}

 

Only one of the three improved his play last season -- despite the fact that one of them was gifted a great QB guru and soothsayer as his HC and one of them was gifted his OC as his HC.

 

Only one of the three has been to the playoffs.

 

Allen got better last year.  Significantly.  His deep ball accuracy was horrible but he improved dramatically in the short and intermediate range game.  His accuracy and QB rating at that level was very good.  He was one of the best red zone QBs in the league.  And guess what he's working on this offseason?  His deep ball.  Given the way this kid dedicates himself to improving his weaknesses if you don't expect him to be better this year you're still just clinging to your pre-draft assessment.

I don’t want to get in this argument too deeply, but it’s worth noting that players and their situations should be looked at the same way.  Allen gets a lot of leeway for coming into the league so raw, for not having a #1 WR last season and for the total crap show he was thrown into in his rookie season.  That’s all fair.  Daboll takes a lot of blame too.  IMO too much gets attributed to him though. 
 

It is equally fair to look at Mayfield’s situation.  Him having Landry and OBJ last season gets brought up a lot, but both played injured the whole season which doesn’t.  He had a terrible set of OTs and got put into a scheme that exposed them terribly.  It didn’t exactly fit  him either.  He also had a god awful HC calling plays.  If you see the replay of Bills v Browns or any other Browns game from last season check out the first dozen or so plays versus the rest.  The early plays are scripted and the OC installed them and they were practiced.  It’s a whole different team and QB there.  After that they’re a mess because Kitchens was calling the plays.  And we aren’t even talking about all of the upheaval and changes Mayfield saw in his rookie season.  All of that is fair to include in his evaluation too. 
 

Honestly it’s pretty pointless to compare Allen and Mayfield at this time.  Allen was so raw that we don’t know where he’s going to top out at.  It’s fair to see his development and be encouraged that it’ll continue.  Let’s watch and see how that works out.  As for Mayfield, it’s also fair to wait and see if he gets some stability around him before passing judgement. 

 

 

[eball]

@BarleyNY if you're going to say Josh "got a break" for entering the league so raw (which I disagree with, by the way -- he's been hammered constantly by those looking to confirm their bust predictions) then you should also acknowledge that Mayfield was considered a largely "finished product" entering the league.

 

Anyway, it's only natural that the five QBs taken in the first round of that draft will be compared throughout their careers.  Jackson got shot out of a cannon but I don't think there is consensus that he will wind up being the best of the bunch when all is said and done.

 

In five years it would not surprise me to see Allen and Darnold considered the best franchise QBs to come out of that draft.

[oldmanfan]

20 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) Allen’s accuracy isn’t good and it’s never been good at any level of football.  Can he improve sure but people need to stop pretending it’s some government conspiracy to discredit Allen.  In today’s nfl, under 60% sucks.  
 

2) were you not on this planet since the football season started?  Mayfield got murdered all year for how much he and the Browns underachieved.  There’s no way you didn’t hear all the criticism.  And darnold has mono that completely sidetracked his season.  
 

No one of these guys have proven that they are franchise guys yet and have a ton to prove this year.  I think Allen has the best overall team around him; Baker has the most talented offense; and Darnold is definitely in the worst situation.  It’s hypothetically but I think it’s interesting to think what each guy would do in a different situation.  I think Darnold would be a stud here.  

Accuracy does not equal completion percentage.  This has been explained over and over and over again.  The 60% magical barrier has also been debunked over and over and over again; Allen hits your mythical mark with one less drop every few games.  But you continue to hang onto this as if it means something.

 

Allen improved last year.  He has to continue that trend.  Simple.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, eball said:

@BarleyNY if you're going to say Josh "got a break" for entering the league so raw (which I disagree with, by the way -- he's been hammered constantly by those looking to confirm their bust predictions) then you should also acknowledge that Mayfield was considered a largely "finished product" entering the league.

 

Anyway, it's only natural that the five QBs taken in the first round of that draft will be compared throughout their careers.  Jackson got shot out of a cannon but I don't think there is consensus that he will wind up being the best of the bunch when all is said and done.

 

In five years it would not surprise me to see Allen and Darnold considered the best franchise QBs to come out of that draft.

At this point I would be very surprised if Darnold and Allen become the two best of that class, but that can be for another thread. 
 

As for Mayfield being a finished product, you’re kidding, right?  While he was more of a finished product than Allen, he came from a spread offense that didn’t even put him under center. Two days into training camp his OC remarked that he’d lined up under Center more in those two days of practice than he did in three seasons in college.

 

And yeah, Allen does get a break for coming into the league as raw as he did.  He should.  I hated seeing him put on the field in his rookie year, especially with such a poor supporting cast around him.  Maybe it worked out as a learning experience, but I’d have rather seen him improving things like his arm mechanics and footwork first.  To his credit he has made big improvements on both, though neither is a finished product yet.  But he still looks undeveloped in making reads, accuracy and ball security.

 

Other QBs coming out of college still have to develop in some areas.  That’s pretty normal. But coming into the league Allen had more on his plate than other first round QBs in that regard.  That doesn’t mean that he can’t do it.  It does mean that it would be reasonable for it to take him a little longer though.  My fear with Allen is that his progression stops.  As long as I see him improving I’ll be happy.  I make a habit of looking at that kind of thing in blocks of 4 games during the season which keeps me from overreacting to any single game.  So I’ll see what he looks like through the quarter turn of this season and go from there.

[Meatloaf63]

On 4/12/2020 at 11:12 PM, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

Well I didn't vote for him

You don’t vote for a king...

On 4/13/2020 at 8:24 AM, SoCal Deek said:

Allen can’t be King! He doesn’t have sh&t all over him.

No, no no he must be king because he is the only one who doesn’t have sht all over him...

[wiley16350]

On 4/13/2020 at 7:52 AM, Greg S said:

If we are going to compare QB's I would be more interested in Allen vs Darnold. He is the guy the Bills will face twice a year every year. Both of them will play an important part in the Bills-Jets rivalry over the next 12-15 years if things go well. Let the Browns and Ravens fans compare Mayfield vs Jackson. Allen and Darnold could be another Kelly-Marino which would makes for some exciting matchups between the teams.

I added Darnold's numbers to the original post