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About wiley16350

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  1. I think it is possible that it was Allen's fault for the tip because the rusher was free and in Allen's view and maybe he should have looked elsewhere. The problem is that the receiver was open and the only open receiver that early in the play. It very well could have been the right pre-snap read and since the receiver was open, going off that read isn't something a QB necessarily will do based on rushers. You do see that type of deflection all the time without incident. Allen could have adjusted but then pressure up the middle that got to him after releasing the ball may have caused a sack. If Allen did hold from throwing to the pre-snap read and avoided the sack, then a play may have developed downfield but none of that is certain. It is also possible that the TE was supposed to chop block the defender to create a passing lane and that is what kept the play from being successful. In short, there is too much subjectivity in that play for me to weigh it 100% Allen's fault. My view is that It appeared as though he threw it to the proper receiver who was open based on the coverage, play design and pre-snap read but he probably should have adjusted to the free defender. The questionable part is who is responsible for the defender that batted down the ball. Was the TE supposed to chop block? Did Allen need to adjust on the fly from his pre-snap read and not challenge the defender or was it just luck that the defender was able to get 1 hand on the ball to deflect it?
  2. Well we can differ on that. Playing in the backyard, My brother was great at jump balls and I would just throw him one because it was the easiest way to get the ball downfield. It was at times the play I felt most confident in making because he was that good at it and I knew the defenders couldn't stop it. It's funny how people see different things. In my opinion he got the ball and immediately threw the pass. The defender tipped it because he was coming in on a blitz and actually saw Allen throw the ball so he jumped and knocked it down as he was running. He wasn't sitting at the line waiting and then jumped up and knocked it down because he knew that was where the pass was going.
  3. Actually it isn't. I guess it depends on what you mean but sometimes a jump ball is the best way to make a play. The QB showing confidence in his receiver isn't a bad thing. Now if the throw is at the back of a defender and the receiver makes a catch over him, then it wasn't a good throw but that isn't what I was thinking of.
  4. You're right, it is an easy window for Bias. I absolutely agree with that, which is why I make sure that I am very aware of mine and I will have a debate in my own mind while doing this and try to make sure that I am as accurate as possible. I understand that may be a reason to be skeptical of adjusted stats, I can be skeptical of Pro Football Focus at times. All you can do is look at what I produce and see if you think that it matches with how well a QB played. Just be mindful, the coaches tape can take off some of the shine on certain QB's like Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor. Those 2 don't turn the ball over a lot but that's because they take sacks, throw balls away and run for meaningless yards that make the team look bad but not their stats. For the record, Rodgers is better than Taylor but they have some similarities. I'm sorry but what makes a poor 3rd down throw better than an interception? They accomplish the same thing, turning the ball over. I don't add that kind of turnover to the passing stats, I just add it to the total QB effectiveness rating. That is why there are separate categories. You can see what he did directly as a passer and what he did in total play.
  5. If the receiver got both hands on it, then it would be a positive. If the defender should have intercepted it but the receiver steals it away then it would be a negative. If the receiver deserves more credit for catching it, then the completion % would be reduced. I take all variables into account.
  6. If this is directed at me, the answer is yes and no. That can be one of the hardest things to judge. Most of the time I say no unless the ball is thrown low (to the chest or head area of the defender) and it is obvious that the QB could have done better. On that play I wouldn't rule out some responsibility on Allen because the defender was in view but it is hard to say for sure because it seemed like the play was designed to go where Allen was throwing it. Maybe the tackle was supposed to chop block to create a passing lane and he just didn't get there or in time or didn't expect the defender to come. That is why I go with questionable fault on things like that.
  7. Rodgers didn't have the traditional turnovers but he missed 3rd down throws and open receivers on 3rd downs that did stall drives, effectively causing turnovers. I credited him with 2.75 turnovers because his poor play led to failed drives. Rodgers can actually be secretly bad. He takes bad sacks or has bad throwaways because he isn't aware of open receivers despite having the time to find them. In that game, he missed multiple throws to open receivers. As a passer, Rodgers did better than Allen but when it came to actually producing and not be the reason for failures, Rodgers was worse. The only reason Rodgers was a better passer is because he didn't have interceptions like Allen did but when it came to actually throwing the ball, Allen was better.
  8. Let me ask you a question. Do you think Aaron Rodgers was better on Thursday night than Allen was on Sunday?
  9. I will put it this way. According to the official stats, Sam Darnold was the better QB. According to my Total Effectiveness adjusted stat, Allen was the better QB.
  10. I would say that it is always more accurate than the official stats but not necessarily perfect. It isn't really subjective for the most part. There are plays where it requires more subjectivity but the more subjective it is, the less weight I put into the stat by reducing the impact, which is why you'll see portions of whole numbers in the chart. Some plays don't earn full weight. Take the fumble you mentioned before. If I go back and watch it and agree with your assessment then I can change it to a portion of a fumble rather than a full fumble. I also want to point out that I didn't charge Allen with that sack, only the fumble. A QB can be charged with both.
  11. I didn't charge Allen with the tipped int. I charged him with 3 turnovers. The interception that got called back. The interception that was dropped and the fumble you mentioned above. I am willing to go back and watch that fumble again and adjust. I felt like he could have avoided that fumble.
  12. Except that it isn't an if, then that. It is what he did. He threw the ball to Beasley and it should have been a completion for 5 yards or an incomplete pass at worst. Which is why he was considered to be 50% on that play. It shouldn't have been an interception based on what Allen actually did. On the interception Allen got turned over, I did the same thing. He made a bad decision, he deserved an interception. That play went from being nothing in the official stats to an interception on mine because that is what Allen deserved on that play. Now for Allen, this game kind of evened out in the turnover department but that isn't the case with a lot of games. I credit the QB with 8 yards for avoiding the pressure and 10 yards in the air. I will also add YAC yards if i feel like the QB deserves them. The QB gets 50 yards on the other throw. Both could credit for a score. The situation you present is part of the reason Allen was credited with an extra 64 yards.
  13. So a 50 yard screen pass for a TD deserves a better rating than a 50 yard deep pass down to the 1 (and the QB took a hit to make the play)? An interception that bounced off a receiver deserves the same rating as an interception thrown right to a defender?
  14. They are a reflection of how the QB actually played, meaning that he is credited for drops and the like. He is absolved of any plays that weren't actually his fault or that didn't deserve a negative play, such as spikes, hail mary's or turnovers that he didn't really cause. He is blamed for turnovers that he did cause, whether they counted or didn't count. These things are adjusted based on situation, the availability of receivers and amount of pressure.
  15. Adjusted stats are about accurately representing what the QB did within the circumstances he faced. I also add a stat line that combines all of the adjusted stats attributed to the QB into the NFL's passer rating to have as accurate representation of how the QB played as possible. If you're fine with statistics that distort the truth of how well a QB played, then fine but I like to get a more accurate gauge of QB play. I believe there are others like me that are interested in that too.
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