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About wiley16350

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  1. His 2019 stats show that he has improved but you meld them with his 2018 stats so that no improvement is shown. That is the problem with stats as you can construct them and contort them to fit an argument. I didn't watch a lot of Allen at Wyoming and what I did see was a team that wasn't really that talented and not necessarily a QB that wasn't good enough. I can back that argument up with the fact that Wyoming has only made it to a bowl game twice since 2012. Do you want to guess who the QB was both years that they did get to a bowl game? It was Josh Allen, in case you didn't want to guess. Craig Bohl had 2 losing seasons before Allen and 1 .500 season after Allen. How good is he without Allen? The stats say not very good but it is possible that the team was building the first 2 years and then were ready to compete when Allen arrived and then they lost too much talent when Allen left and they had a down year but are doing well this year. Allen started for a bad team in his rookie season and now that the talent is improved around him, he is playing better. Despite what you say, he has improved and he will continue to improve if the team around him continues to improve too. I initially called the Bills dumb for trading up to get Allen, I thought they could get him or Rosen at their original spot. I preferred Rosen but that was all based on what the media was saying and not on what I had seen because I didn't watch much of either QB in college. unlike other people though, I was o.k. with the Allen pick pretty soon after because he definitely seemed more suited to the Bills than Rosen was from the things that I was hearing about their personalities and how they responded to be drafted where they were drafted. The more I watch Allen, especially the all-22 video, the more I like his potential and his ability to improve. He is a better QB on the all-22 than he is on TV. I have said it here before, he is the opposite to Tyrod Taylor in that respect. Taylor looks better on TV than on the all-22. So I don't care how much better his stats are, Taylor wasn't really better. Taylor's best season was 2015 and people just don't realize how good that team was because he made them worse than they actually were. Here are the skill players he had that season: LeSean McCoy, Percy Harvin, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Chris hogan, Marquise Goodwin and Charles Clay. People loved to complain about the receivers back then but go and look to see what kind of success each of those players have had without Tyrod throwing them the ball. That was a great running team too. They also had 3 pro-bowl offensive lineman. It should have been a playoff team but the passing game wasn't good enough to overcome a defense that ranked 15th in points.
  2. There is so much context lost on just showing stats but we both can play this stupid little game. 2018 Bills 2019 Bills 11 Games 8 Games 169/320 52.8% 148/243 60.9% 2,074 Yards 6.5 avg 1,653 Yards 6.8 avg 10 TD 3.1% 10 TD 4.1% 12 INT 3.8% 7 INT 2.9% 67.9 Rating 82.9 Rating Every number has improved from 2018
  3. What are you basing the Daboll Scheming throws on? Seems like this weeks game because the Bills haven't really thrown that many screen passes or slants. They did this week but they haven't been staples of the offense all year. Shovel passes have been 1-2 each week but the other ones haven't been that prevalent. The one pass that was seemingly behind McKenzie was actually perfect because of where the linebacker was. He would have led him into a hit if it wasn't behind him. Go watch some Cover-1 episodes on youtube and you'll see that Allen is being asked to make big boy reads and they aren't scheming plays to make things easier. Hell, if calling screen passes and slants is what coordinators do to help a QB that can't read defenses then the Patriots are very afraid to let Tom Brady make full field reads.
  4. I don't necessarily think Allen has improved as a passer in that I don't think his accuracy is really that different than before. I have said before that I didn't think accuracy was an issue last year. His improved completion % is mostly because of the improvement in talent around him and his decision making. I do think he is improving at reading defenses and showing awareness of what the defense is doing. Most of his interceptions were because he was forcing passes that he knew wasn't there, which is why he has been able to improve drastically the last few weeks in not throwing interceptions. QB's that have a problem reading defenses don't improve that much, that quickly. See Sam Darnold and Jameis Winston.
  5. The Patriots do base their game plan on the opponent. The difference is that the Patriots don't just see it as attacking with the run or pass. The Patriots see it as attacking different areas of the field with the run or the pass based on opponent. The Bills tend to attack the same way in each aspect and the only thing that changes is the ratio based on the opponent. The Patriots are mostly a pass first offense because that is what works and is the easiest thing to do on early downs. What changes is that the Patriots passing game will attack the weak part of the defense until the opponent stops it. That means they'll run screen passes all day long if you can't stop it. They'll attack downfield or the intermediate part of the field if a team doesn't have a pass rush or is weak at linebacker or in the secondary. So for the most part they pass but they have had no problem pounding teams with the run if it works and the opponent is determined to take the pass away. The problem with the Bills is that they try to be run first and force it and then get predictable at times. The Patriots never force the run but will certainly fall to it when necessary or to catch teams off guard. I would agree that the Patriots identity now is Brady and the passing game but it hasn't always been that way. In 2001 they were balanced with a tough yards running game, mostly short passing game and produced chunk plays with trick plays. In 2002 and 2003 they were a pass first team that was mostly about the short passing game and couldn't produce much outside of the short passes. 2002 was the worst year they have had with Brady. They did better in 2003 because of defensive improvements but still relied too much on Brady because of a weak running game. In 2004 -2006 they got Corey Dillion and were a well balanced team. 2007 is when they became the pass happy team that was all about Brady (8 years into his career). The running game has had various levels of success and usage ever since.
  6. The problem is people like you that get ridiculous and use qualifiers like horrible to describe Allen. He hasn't been horrible (except the Patriots game). He has been good in many areas of Quarterbacking. His intermediate game has been really good and his short accuracy has been good too. In the 3 games I have done, his adjusted completion % is at 83, which is much better than a number of QB's. That won't change in the last 2 games. Only the NE game will have a negative effect on that. That completion % includes accuracy and decision making, so outside of the bad turnovers, he is making good decisions. Those turnovers were mostly about forcing plays and trying to be the hero when the offense is struggling and not really much about his ability to read defenses. The thing with the turnovers is that people like you could at least recognize is that Allen has had 3 games with 0 turnovers so it hasn't been an issue for half of the Bills games. He has also actually been good at reducing sacks. I have credited him with avoiding 28 sacks in a multitude of ways in the 3 games that I have looked at closely. He was only sacked 5 times in those 3 games and I charged him with some fault on 2 of them. That is the biggest area he isn't getting enough credit for. Ultimately, he hasn't been good throwing the deep ball and he has too many turnovers and any supporter of Josh's will admit that but that doesn't mean he has been horrible.
  7. First Drive - Bills got a FG. The series of plays that led to the FG were Allen running for no gain and throwing 2 passes away. The 3rd down throw away was clearly a good decision in the face of immediate pressure. The run for no gain is hard to be definitive about. It may have been a designed screen or a designed run. Allen faked the screen and ran. The announcers said Allen didn't throw the screen because it looked like it was going to lose yards and it was a good decision to run it. There was a free defender but that doesn't necessarily mean that it wouldn't work. I can't really have a strong opinion on that play. The second down play may have been a throw away and it can be debate-able to whether Allen should have done a better job of getting the ball to McKenzie. When the ball arrived it looked like if Allen would have thrown the ball lower, he could have gotten a TD but the defender was in front of the receiver so if Allen threw it lower, there was better potential for the defender to make a play on the ball. It is very subjective and there were no clear open receivers and Allen was throwing in the face of pressure. I think it is hard to put any complete blame on Allen for that drive ending in only a FG. The Dolphins defense was just better on those set of downs. Second Drive - Bills got a FG. The Bills had a 3rd and 1 and threw the ball. Allen was under immediate pressure because Dawkins wasn't quick enough to get to the rusher and the receiver clearly wasn't ready for the ball and may have been held up by the defender. To make matters worse, the line was called for holding so they were in 3rd & 11 rather than possibly attempting to convert a 4th & 1. The Bills threw a screen pass and settled for a FG. Again, hard to blame Allen for that failure. Third Drive - Bills got a FG. Second down pass was dropped, would have been a 1st down. Third down pass was dropped but wouldn't have converted to a 1st down. That was the play where Allen should have went to Brown to get the 1st down. So there is some blame there but the drive should have been extended on the previous play. It is possible that Allen decided pre-snap to go to Knox to give him a chance to redeem himself from the previous play. It wasn't as open as you would like but sometimes it is hard to go away from a pre-snap decision and the play was still there. I don't think it was that bad of play but obviously not the ideal decision. Fourth Drive - Allen missed Brown on a deep throw and the commentator said that Brown looked for the ball too soon and essentially slowed down some and that is why the pass wasn't on target. I kind of felt the same way when I saw it live. It is a hard one to really say for sure but the play was there to be made, just hard to say who deserves the blame. Allen then took a sack on 3rd down. All of the receivers were downfield and without the all-22 I can't say whether it was a bad play or not. There were no check downs, so it is very likely that there were no good options in that amount of time but I can't say that with any certainty. Fifth Drive - First down looked like a drop by Beasley to me but I need a better view to be sure. Beasley had to dive but with pressure in Allen's face and the throwing motion he had to use to avoid the defenders arms forced the less than ideal location to Beasley. Any other release would have most likely been an incomplete pass. Then it was the sack which lost 4 yards after Allen Broke/Missed 4 tacklers. You could put that on Allen but he did have unblocked pressure right away, so it's not like he had time to go through his progressions. With that said, he did have McKenzie open in the flat right away so you would like to see him just throw the ball to McKenzie right away rather than try to escape. He had a second chance to get the ball to McKenzie before he got sacked so much of the blame for the sack is probably on Allen but he still showed some impressive tackle breaking on the play. A false start on 3rd down made the sack even worse and then the Bills ran the ball and gave up on the drive. So on the last 2 drives of the half Allen had 1 play on each of them where he wasn't good enough and it aided the Bills in not getting points. I have said this before but it isn't one thing that holds the Bills back from being as good as they can be. They all take their turns. If Beasley makes a tough catch to help over come the RT getting pushed back into Allen, then maybe the sack doesn't happen. If Allen gets the ball to McKenzie rather than getting sacked then the false start doesn't keep the Bills from trying on 3rd down. Maybe if the false start didn't happen, the Bills actually try to convert the down. The point is, they all add up. You can't put it all on the QB because he took a 4 yard sack and messed up 1 of 3 plays. Sixth Drive - The Bills scored a TD Seventh Drive - Allen missed the throw to Roberts which was his only bad pass in the second half. That was on him but only 1 bad throw on a deep pass. Eighth Drive - Bills scored a TD Ninth Drive - The Bills ran the ball 3 times to wear down the clock Tenth Drive - Bills returned onside kick for a TD The Bills scored on 5 of 8 drives where the offenses was trying to score. On the 3 FG drives it is hard to blame Allen for failure to get TD's in my opinion. Sure, you could blame him for not going to Brown on the one play but should you also completely dismiss that the drive should have been extended on the previous play? On the 3 drives where the Bills didn't score, You could put blame on Allen for 1 play on each drive and if that is enough for you to think he played poorly, so be it. At best you could say that Allen had 3 plays where he negatively affected the Bills chances of scoring. Those are spread out over 3 drives and 2 of them were deep balls so it's not like he was missing gimmie or easy throws. He had other poor throws but the Bills were able to overcome them, so I didn't look at them. If Allen would have hit the 2 deep balls, would you really have room to criticize him? The Bills would have blown the Dolphins out if he did. So essentially if you think he played poorly, it's because of 2 deep passes. That seems a little too drastic to me.
  8. That happened once and the guy he threw it to dropped the ball
  9. You do realize that the Bills had 1 possession in the 3rd quarter and it ended with a touchdown in the 4th quarter?
  10. Yeah because it's easy to throw out of bounds after breaking 4 tackles and still have a 5th guy to deal with. At what point did he actually have position and time to throw it away? You probably like Tyrod Taylor and had no problem with him walking out of bounds for a 2 yard loss. Allen has clearly shown the willingness to throw the ball away so I think I will side with him in that he just didn't have a good moment to do so while trying to avoid all of the defenders.
  11. I did give the metric for better delivered balls that could have resulted in YAC in an earlier post. Allen had 6 in the 3 games and Brady had 4 in the 2 games so they both had 2 in each game. I agree that Brady is better at getting the ball underneath, which is the main way a QB can help improve YAC. I said that in both of my previous posts on the topic. Here is a clear way of what I believe because I don't think we really disagree. 1. Great accuracy is rarely the reason for YAC as announcers like to pretend it does. 2. The only time accuracy really plays a factor is when it takes the receiver to the ground. 3. Scheme, Defense, Situation and the skill player has a bigger role in YAC than the QB does in most instances. 4. Some QB's will get more YAC because they are quicker to the check down or outlet passes.
  12. That list means nothing to me. It proves nothing. Here is something that actually does, a break-down of the YAC yards I have for Brady's 2 games that I have done and the 3 that I have done for Allen. Allen YAC yards to open receivers Game 1 - 4 cmp for 25 yards (6.2 avg) Game 2 - 7 cmp for 33 yards (4.7 avg) Game 3 - 5 cmp for 49 yards (9.8 avg) Total 16 cmp for 107 yards (6.7 avg) Brady YAC yards to open receivers Game 1 - 7 cmp for 47 yards (6.7 avg) Game 2 - 5 cmp for 33 yards (6.6 avg) Total 12 cmp for 80 yards (6.6 avg) Allen YAC yards into tight window and quick release throws Game 1 - 4 cmp for 39 yards (9.7 avg) Game 2 - none Game 3 - 1 cmp for 8 yards (8.0 avg) Total 5 cmp for 47 yards (9.4 avg) Brady YAC yards into tight window and quick release throws Game 1 - 2 cmp for 7 yards (3.5 avg) Game 2 - 2 cmp for 8 yards (4.0 avg) Total - 4 cmp for 15 yards (3.7 avg) Allen YAC yards with schemed plays and check downs (screens, flats, bootlegs, swings, check downs) Game 1 - 7 cmp for 10 yards (1.4 avg) Game 2 - 5 cmp for 48 yards (9.6 avg) Game 3 - 7 cmp for 46 yards (6.6 avg) Total - 19 cmp for 104 yards (5.5 avg) Brady YAC yards with schemed plays Game 1 - 9 cmp for 70 yards (7.8 avg) Game 2 - 6 cmp for 49 yards (8.2 avg) Total 15 cmp for 119 yards (7.9 avg) These were all accurate throws so the only other influence was the receiver and the defense to account for the YAC yards. The only part where Brady is better with YAC yards average is in the schemed plays where he has more yards despite less completions. To open receivers they're nearly identical in average but Allen's fluctuated greatly while Brady's was steady. That to me speaks volume to the production of the talent vs the defense they faced. Allen was much more productive in the tight window/ quick release throws. Having a 2 yard average difference in the schemed plays says a lot more about the teams than it does the QB. Again, Allen's avg fluctuated much more than Brady's, pointing again to the talent vs defense. The only thing you can claim is that Brady takes advantage of defenses by checking the ball down in the right situation, which I tend to agree with but that is what I said above. The QB can improve the opportunities and maximize YAC by getting the ball to his play makers but he doesn't actually make the receivers more productive in gaining the YAC yards. That is the reason why I do count simpler plays when I grade the QB, unlike PFF but I don't credit the QB with the YAC yards, only the completion and the air yards. Just finished the first half of the 49ers vs Bengals week 2 game and Jimmy Garoppolo had 122 yards of YAC on 8 cmp for 15.2 avg. 2 RB screens went for 77 yards. Care to tell me how Garoppolo is responsible for all that YAC yardage?
  13. The PFF ranking is 31st, so I don't get where you think it is mid 20's. QBR has him 28th, so again I don't see how you get mid 20's? I think you're wrong about his ability to see the field. Most of his interceptions aren't really poor reads. In the Jets game he had 1 that he forced into coverage. 1 was caused by the receiver. 1 was caused at the line of scrimmage. The last one was because he threw the ball late while on the move and it gave the defender time to make a play on the ball. Against the Bengals he had 1 because he was playing hero ball and the other potential one was actually a great play by the defender who wasn't really in coverage but got back in time to make a play on a deep ball. Maybe the defense purposefully set Allen up but it looked like a great play by a defender covering someone else. I can't comment on the Patriots game since I haven't really watched it that closely. From the quick watch of it, he seemed to be forcing the ball into coverage trying to make a play. I think that Josh tries to do too much at times when the offense is struggling and that is why I think he is fixable. I don't think his interceptions comes from not being able to read the coverage, I think he throws the ball knowing full well that the defense could make a play on the ball but he tries to fit it in there anyway. When a guy struggles with reads the pass is getting picked off by safeties and linebackers in zones. 3 of Allen's int's may count that way but my argument is that only 1 of those probably surprised him that a defender was making a play on the ball and that was the dropped one against the Bengals. The other 2 were forced thinking he could fit the ball in there. YAC is mostly a receiver, scheme and opponent stat. There are instances where a great throw into tight coverage will produce YAC but it doesn't really happen that often, especially on short throws as people imagine. Most of the time YAC comes on wide open throws or where the receiver breaks tackles. Certain types of routes are also better at producing YAC than others are (Flats, Drags, Screens). There are also times where the QB has to throw to a spot where YAC isn't possible because the receiver is well covered. Allen had some of that against the Titans. So for the most part, the YAC that is yearned isn't really because of the QB. There are times where a QB reduces the opportunity for YAC because he takes the receiver to the ground and in that way they can effect YAC. Allen has had a few of those but it's not really that often. I have Allen with 6 instances (2 per game) in the 3 games I've done where he completed a pass and kept the receiver from getting YAC because of where he threw the ball. I have Brady with 4 instances (2 per game) in the 2 games I've done of him where he kept the receiver from getting YAC. I have the Patriots with 214 yards (107 per game) of YAC in those 2 games and the Bills with 257 yards (85 per game) of YAC in the 3 games. So even though both QB's reduced YAC potential twice, the Patriots averaged 22 yards more of YAC per game. Is that because of tackle breaking, scheme, opponents or QB? I think it's safe to say that it really wasn't because of the QB's.
  14. From the games I have done of Allen His week 1 performance (Jets) ranked 20th of all week 1 games His week 2 performance (Ginats) would rank 2nd when compared to week 1 games His week 3 performance (Bengals) would rank 21st, right after his week 1 game I haven't done his Patriots game but it could be as low as 32 I would expect the Titans game to be at least in the middle of the pack if not higher. I think it would all add up to middle of the pack, depending on how bad he was against the Patriots. I think he is clearly better than the 31st best QB, even if I can't be sure how many guys he is better than.
  15. It is possible for their system to be better suited to gauge certain positions than other ones. I don't think the system is good enough for QB's or Receivers. The closer to the line of scrimmage, the better I think it is. I don't think it's good enough for QB's because the weight they put on simpler plays is not enough because there are QB's that play poorly even when the team around them play well and their assumption is that all QB's will make the simple play. There are many times where a QB completely misses an open receiver on 3rd down with an easy throw. That play isn't weighed the same as an interception but it is in fact is the same play and has the same result unless the int gives the opponent good field position or a score. QB's that do complete those passes more regularly keep their offenses on track and tend to have longer drives that lead to points, even if it is only a field goal. Tom Brady makes a living with simple plays and he is the most consistent at doing it, making him what most consider to be the greatest QB of all-time. I don't think the system is good enough for receivers because plays that don't involve the receiver being targeted hold no value. That can be a problem when the receiver plays with a QB that doesn't target him. Robert Woods has become a much better receiver with the Rams than he was with the Bills and that isn't because Woods actually became a better receiver. It is because he is targeted more, making him more productive and giving him more opportunities to show off his skills. At the line of scrimmage it is different because they have a job that is graded on every play so there is a better representation of how good they are.
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