100% problem with the Deep Ball this year.

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, Lurker said:

 

Baker and Johnny say hello...

You missed the part where I said it didn’t guarantee nfl success but it’s far better than not dominating.

 

and are you calling Baker a bust? That’s insane.  If anyone has a right to complain about bad coaches, it’s him. 

Just now, K-9 said:

Appreciate the effort, but it really doesn’t matter as this thread is digressing into something other than an interesting stat comparison. 

I agree. I would love to see a breakdown of all qbs for that stat if someone can find it.

[Beast]

6 hours ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Your probably right. The coaches are brain washing him to play conservatively and protect the football so he is becoming scared to throw interceptions on the deep ball.

If the coaches were truly brain washing him he’d have a lot better ball security when running.

 

The fact of the matter is Josh Allen is a inaccurate thrower. No more needs to be said. To blame it on the coaching staff is freaking ridiculous.

Edited November 11, 2019 by Binghamton Beast

[K-9]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So basically the OP's stat is made up?

The OP mentioned 30 air yards. Which is weird because the criterion for “long ball” has always been 20 yards plus. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I do care about the long ball. I believe the improvement in completion % and the intermediate throws is more important. But he does need to hit a few of these home run balls. Just like the defense needs to force more turnovers, Allen and the offense needs to stretch and pressure the opposing defense. He has to get better with this.

[USABuffaloFan]

12 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

He's played 20 games and shown growth from year 1 to 2 though?

Can he not do that the rest of this year and big strides next until we call him a bust?

Where are you getting BUST from, he is 6-3 this year. My question is can he go 5-2 with the teams we play next and can he win in the playoffs? Can we go 5-2 with Barkley and does Barkley lose us more games? This year we are winning because of our defense keeping cans within Josh's reach. this is only happening with bad teams though.

[billspro]

22 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

How can anyone think a QB who can't come close to hitting on a long throw will be a great QB some day?

 

If Bills lose to the Dolphins on Sunday then I 100% expect Barkley to start vs. the Broncos on 11/24.

No you give Josh the season. If you bench him his time here is up and we have no QB going forward. Just pray he develops. Throwing those deep balls is a lot easier than some of the other throws he hits. His short accuracy improved a ton this year. Maybe he needs another offseason with Palmer to work on long ball accuracy. We need to give Josh the rest of the year to prove if he is franchise material. If not you bring in competition next year. 

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, Ethan in Portland said:

I do care about the long ball. I believe the improvement in completion % and the intermediate throws is more important. But he does need to hit a few of these home run balls. Just like the defense needs to force more turnovers, Allen and the offense needs to stretch and pressure the opposing defense. He has to get better with this.

Allen needs to hit crossing receivers in stride because there were a bunch of big plays missed because of inaccurate passes. 

[34-78-83]

14 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

There is literally zero chance that Josh Allen gets benched due to performance.  Zero.  And rightfully so.

This is true... and not likely for a number of the next few seasons.

Might be a good time for those who have already made their minds up to jump off the wagon or prepare be angry and frustrated for the foreseeable future.

Again, its like they are talking about Tyrod or Trent Edwards or someone... It ain't happening. There's too much good and too much progress.

[JaCrispy]

6 hours ago, BillsBlue said:

Exactly how I feel about Josh and the deep ball he's just scared of throwing picks 

I would agree except for the fact that he wasn’t scared to throw INT’s at the beginning of the year and he still wasn’t hitting the deep pass.

[billsfan_34]

25 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

How can anyone think a QB who can't come close to hitting on a long throw will be a great QB some day?

 

If Bills lose to the Dolphins on Sunday then I 100% expect Barkley to start vs. the Broncos on 11/24.

Barkley wont start- this regime will live and die by Josh- it is that simple.

[Wayne Arnold]

Just now, billspro said:

No you give Josh the season. If you bench him his time here is up and we have no QB going forward. Just pray he develops. Throwing those deep balls is a lot easier than some of the other throws he hits. His short accuracy improved a ton this year. Maybe he needs another offseason with Palmer to work on long ball accuracy. We need to give Josh the rest of the year to prove if he is franchise material. If not you bring in competition next year. 

 

Fair enough. I just hate seeing this team waste a cake schedule - the likes of which we'll never see again - and a very good defense because once again the quarterback holds the team back.

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

The good ones hit 30-40%, Josh is hitting 6%and zero percent this year. That matters!

The good ones hit 30-40 % and throw it 20-25 times a season. You only need a few completions to spike ratings

 

Can Josh get better? Yes. Do young QBs improve? Yes

 

You realize if Josh was even 0-10 on those balls. BuT he hit 3 out of his next 10 for 3-20 he'd be 15% already. 

 

Drew Brees only hit 11% of his balls 30+ yards downfield last season. HoF Brees

 

Allen can learn

 

[billspro]

1 minute ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Fair enough. I just hate seeing this team waste a cake schedule - the likes of which we'll never see again - and a very good defense because once again the quarterback holds the team back.

 

Doesn’t matter, Barkley is not winning a playoff game and may not even give us a better chance to win regular season games. Hopefully we can get in the playoffs either way but the only thing that matters is seeing if Josh is a franchise guy. This is likely not a Super Bowl year unfortunately. 

[USABuffaloFan]

14 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

 

Allen was 13 - 50 on "long balls" last year.  Over 21 yards.   

 

Watson 18 - 45.  Wow.  Huge difference.  

 

Mahomes 34-81.  With guys like Hill Wakins and Kelce to throw to.  And yes he is awesome.  

 

Stafford was 11-44. 

 

Brady was 14-48

 

 

 

He hasn't connected on the bomb that's for sure.  We aren't scoring enough.  Sure.  

 

But this stat is overblown.  At least he's taking the shots.  Maybe we should be taking more of them.  

The difference between 20 and 30+ is huge. there are allot more throws 20-30 yards then 30+ with much higher percentages. The stat for the league to consider it a long ball is 30+ in the AIR.

[Big Blitz]

7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So basically the OP's stat is made up?

 

https://brickwallblitz.com/2019/02/22/the-2018-19-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/#JameisWinston

 

 

He took far more attempts at throws over 31 yards than most.  And he's rated higher per the Football Outsiders guys than 8 other QBs .......some of whom attempted less than 10 throws over 31 yards.  

 

It's a misleading stupid stat bc you don't win in this league consistently throwing 31 plus freaking yards.  You need elite WRs to consistently do that like Nuke, AB, Jones, Thomas...

[Scott7975]

22 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

What's his accuracy% on throws 20 yard downfield? 

 

I bet it's alot better and that IS considered a deep ball

 

Throwing 30-40-50 yards downfield has ALWAYS BEEN A CRAPSHOOT

 

Not sure what his % is but he is tied at 13th with Lamar Jackson in 20+ yard completions with 30.  Top 10 is 34.  Mahomes has 36.

[billspro]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Allen needs to hit crossing receivers in stride because there were a bunch of big plays missed because of inaccurate passes. 

 

Weird I thought those were often his best throws. I remember a big play to Knox and Foster just in yesterday’s game. I’m sure there are other examples as well.

[Wayne Arnold]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

The good ones hit 30-40 % and throw it 20-25 times a season. You only need a few completions to spike ratings

 

Can Josh get better? Yes. Do young QBs improve? Yes

 

You realize if Josh was even 0-10 on those balls. BuT he hit 3 out of his next 10 for 3-20 he'd be 15% already. 

 

Drew Brees only hit 11% of his balls 30+ yards downfield last season. HoF Brees

 

Allen can learn

 

 

But Allen isn't even close to his receivers.

 

How do you "learn" how to throw a deep ball accurately? Tua is the best I've ever seen at throwing a deep ball. He didn't "learn" how. He's just naturally good at it.

[Tesla03]

we need to just stop with trying to turn Allen into Drew Brees and focus on his strengths 

 

he will never be an elite pocket passer. anyone with half a brain could have told you that when he got drafted. 

[Mike in Horseheads]

35 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

 

If Bills lose to the Dolphins on Sunday then I 100% expect Barkley to start vs. the Broncos on 11/24.

Thats the worst of many of your ? takes

[quinnearlysghost88]

He's so afraid to throw the ball anywhere near a defender. Does he not have trust in our WRs to go up and get it? 

[Scott7975]

27 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

Guarantee he has made at least 10X more than 3.

 

Last year Brady was 7 of 21 in 31+.  Allen was 6 of 21 in 31+.  Both were actually bad.  They were around 28-30%.  The middle of the league was around 40%.  I don't believe this discludes yards after the catch.  I found it in something called "the deep ball project" if anyone wants to google it for themselves.

Edited November 11, 2019 by Scott7975

[row_33]

Just now, quinnearlysghost88 said:

He's so afraid to throw the ball anywhere near a defender. Does he not have trust in our WRs to go up and get it? 

 

an improvement over Tyrod who never learned to lead a WR, and wouldn't throw unless the primary was open for 2 seconds and doing jumping jacks for attention

 

[Do The Reich Thing]

This guys is supposed to be an NFL QB!!! Anyone making an excuse for 3 of 36 is injecting their veins with JA juice.

[USABuffaloFan]

17 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

 

Allen was 13 - 50 on "long balls" last year.  Over 21 yards.   

 

Watson 18 - 45.  Wow.  Huge difference.  

 

Mahomes 34-81.  With guys like Hill Wakins and Kelce to throw to.  And yes he is awesome.  

 

Stafford was 11-44. 

 

Brady was 14-48

 

 

 

He hasn't connected on the bomb that's for sure.  We aren't scoring enough.  Sure.  

 

But this stat is overblown.  At least he's taking the shots.  Maybe we should be taking more of them.  

 

24 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

 

Allen was 13 - 50 on "long balls" last year.  Over 21 yards.   

 

Watson 18 - 45.  Wow.  Huge difference.  

 

Mahomes 34-81.  With guys like Hill Wakins and Kelce to throw to.  And yes he is awesome.  

 

Stafford was 11-44. 

 

Brady was 14-48

 

 

 

He hasn't connected on the bomb that's for sure.  We aren't scoring enough.  Sure.  

 

But this stat is overblown.  At least he's taking the shots.  Maybe we should be taking more of them.  

Brady is on pace for just 46 deep throws this season after averaging 60 in his 12 previous 16-game seasons. He is typically a 40% connection rate on those throws.

[row_33]

Just now, Do The Reich Thing said:

This guys is supposed to be an NFL QB!!! Anyone making an excuse for 3 of 36 is injecting their veins with JA juice.

 

i'd love to bring the hammer down on him but he's got a few more years to learn this game

 

Kelly took Year 3 to start making the Bills epic, even after semi-pro experience in the USFL

 

 

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

But Allen isn't even close to his receivers.

 

How do you "learn" how to throw a deep ball accurately? Tua is the best I've ever seen at throwing a deep ball. He didn't "learn" how. He's just naturally good at it.

Aaron Rodgers did not throw a good deep ball coming out and now he has one of the world's best. He had bad mechanics and it hindered his delivery

 

Same with Josh on his deep ball mechanics. Rodgers had 3 years on the bench to work out the kinks

 

Coaches coach for a reason. If Josh is coachable , then he should be able to hone in his mechanics and throw deep as soon as next season

[USABuffaloFan]

20 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

A HoF QB? We are comparing a green 2nd year guy to one of the greatest

 

QBs learn , so apparently if Josh gets it he will become Kelly? Your comparing him to a legend

 

If he becomes 3-5ths of Kelly we would be set

Compare Josh to Mahomes. 

[Mr. WEO]

Yeah but he’s 1 for 1 almost throwing it out of the stadium

[Buffalo716]

Just now, USABuffaloFan said:

Compare Josh to Mahomes. 

If Josh cleans up his mechanics on deep balls he can easily be a big time deep ball thrower

 

Rodgers couldn't throw deep coming out because bad mechanics , he corrected them and the deep ball came

[C.Biscuit97]

8 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

Weird I thought those were often his best throws. I remember a big play to Knox and Foster just in yesterday’s game. I’m sure there are other examples as well.

He missed a huge one to Brown that could have been a monster play.  Some of them are just slightly off which kills YAC.  He did have some great balls in the middle of the field.  I could be wrong but he seems much more comfortable at hitting stationary targets rather than moving ones. 

[Augie]

21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So basically the OP's stat is made up?

 

These numbers don’t add up. Something’s not passing the smell test. Big Blitz at least provided a kink and numbers for other QB’s. I’m not researching this, but that is a start, and far more than putting it together from the old “multiple sources”.  

[USABuffaloFan]

20 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I do care about the long ball. I believe the improvement in completion % and the intermediate throws is more important. But he does need to hit a few of these home run balls. Just like the defense needs to force more turnovers, Allen and the offense needs to stretch and pressure the opposing defense. He has to get better with this.

You don't see dime defenses till you do. 

[Bob in STL]

46 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

Not writing this to bash Josh Allen, I like him and think he SOME DAY will be a great QB. The problem I have is the Bills could have won two more games with a passer that can hit the long ball. Can Josh throw far, YES. Does Josh have touch to drop a ball over the top shoulder, haven't seen that yet. He is 6-3 so what do you do about this that 9 games hasn't shown you. Can the Bills offense beat Baltimore, Dallas, New England, Pittsburgh and even Denver. Is this Bills team just a QB away? Can they win this year in the playoffs? If your answering YES than Barkley must be given a shot. If your not sure or NO then stay the course and see if Josh develops. I am not saying get rid of Josh, just saying you never hand someone a job without working for it. Josh's upside is huge if this is done right. He is not playing that much better than Taylor at this point of his career. Tough decision, at this point though I see this season's playoff chances in jeopardy with Josh playing like this. 

 

I stopped reading right after the bold sentence.   

 

Should their coaches quit on Elway, Manning, Kelly, Farve, after 9 games?   None of them looked very good at that point.  

[billspro]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He missed a huge one to Brown that could have been a monster play.  Some of them are just slightly off which kills YAC.  He did have some great balls in the middle of the field.  I could be wrong but he seems much more comfortable at hitting stationary targets rather than moving ones. 

 

The Brown throw was terrible, that would have been a huge play in the game. I think in general deep crossing patterns are his best throw. He had a great one to Brown on a rollout at the end of last game too. He is definitely not a pinpoint guy so he needs to hit lots of chunk plays to be effective.

[The Wiz]

6 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said:

Compare Josh to Mahomes. 

Ok.  Did Josh beat Tennessee, yes.  

Did Mahomes, no.

 

Straw-man arguments rarely work in anyones favor unless you're just trying to say "I'm right!".

Edited November 11, 2019 by The Wiz

[USABuffaloFan]

22 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

This is true... and not likely for a number of the next few seasons.

Might be a good time for those who have already made their minds up to jump off the wagon or prepare be angry and frustrated for the foreseeable future.

Again, its like they are talking about Tyrod or Trent Edwards or someone... It ain't happening. There's too much good and too much progress.

Fine with that but expect a few more days against talented teams like yesterday.

[LABILLBACKER]

50 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

As long as he continues to hit the 10 to 20 yards pass as well as he does, he stays in.  Barkley can't hit those throws like JA does, and its not even close. Those throws are also way more important than the occasional deep shot. 

He is money inside 30 yards, but would it kill Dorsey to work with Josh on that flat trajectory. It's like he can throw the ball 80 yards and it won't go higher than 20' above the ground. 

[John from Riverside]

49 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

How can anyone think a QB who can't come close to hitting on a long throw will be a great QB some day?

 

If Bills lose to the Dolphins on Sunday then I 100% expect Barkley to start vs. the Broncos on 11/24.

He wont

[USABuffaloFan]

20 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

The good ones hit 30-40 % and throw it 20-25 times a season. You only need a few completions to spike ratings

 

Can Josh get better? Yes. Do young QBs improve? Yes

 

You realize if Josh was even 0-10 on those balls. BuT he hit 3 out of his next 10 for 3-20 he'd be 15% already. 

 

Drew Brees only hit 11% of his balls 30+ yards downfield last season. HoF Brees

 

Allen can learn

 

Brees get 5000 yard seasons, 300 yard games are nothing to him. Can't believe your using him to compare.