Josh Allen’s deep ball hasn’t been there so far

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, DaveToday19 said:

Hapless Bill’s Fan is a [edited out useless content and cheap insults]

 

You know you’ve been a mod for a while when the only emotional reaction to this is vague curiosity as to why someone would bother.  I guess I understand the attraction of visiting the fan board of a team my team just defeated to gloat a bit, but when ya start making multiple accounts just to aerosolize some “perfume” it looks a tad obsessive.

 

3 hours ago, Philo said:

What just happened here?

 

Pats fan I banned yesterday for trash talk and gloating vs. contributing football discussion had nothing better to do than create multiple accounts just to spew insults. It happens.  It’s usually PM’s though.

 

I wouldn’t wager against the drinking early

[Philo]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You know you’ve been a mod for a while when the only reaction to this vague curiosity as to why someone would bother.  I guess I understand the attraction of visiting the fan board of a team my team just defeated to gloat a bit, but when ya start making multiple accounts just to aerosolize some “perfume” it looks a tad obsessive.

 

Pats fan I banned yesterday for trash talk and gloating vs. contributing football discussion had nothing better to do than create multiple accounts just to spew insults.

It happens.  It’s usually PM’s though.

 

I wouldn’t wager against the drinking early

 

Thank you for your service 

[LSHMEAB]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You know you’ve been a mod for a while when the only reaction to this vague curiosity as to why someone would bother.  I guess I understand the attraction of visiting the fan board of a team my team just defeated to gloat a bit, but when ya start making multiple accounts just to aerosolize some “perfume” it looks a tad obsessive.

 

Pats fan I banned yesterday for trash talk and gloating vs. contributing football discussion had nothing better to do than create multiple accounts just to spew insults.

It happens.  It’s usually PM’s though.

 

I wouldn’t wager against the drinking early

I mean, this guy clearly doesn't have a whole lot going on in life. Hitting the bottle early is probably a good option. 

 

I've always felt like "fans" of teams like the Patriots are often just losers in life. They have this twisted need to attach themselves to something positive in order to "feel" like a winner AT SOMETHING. Sad really.

[oldmanfan]

35 minutes ago, london_bills said:

This is it. How can his accuracy just GET better? Deep ball is one thing, Look at the first series against the pats - throw to Gore in the flats  - couldn't even hit this!!

Stop the nonsense.  I watched every throw he made the first two games and he was off on maybe 2 or 3.  He had a bad game last week, got out ahead of his skis a bit in a big moment and his mechanics suffered for it.  But the first three games he was fine.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

23 hours ago, HOUSE said:

No *****

...so what is his conundrum HOUSE?....sure as hell isn't arm strength......bad reads and not seeing the WR open long?.....timing?....on the WR?......where should we lay the blame bud?.....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

44 minutes ago, london_bills said:

This is it. How can his accuracy just GET better? Deep ball is one thing, Look at the first series against the pats - throw to Gore in the flats  - couldn't even hit this!!

 

*sigh*.

 

First series against the Pats.  

First play.  Telegraphing pass - empty backfield.  Allen made the correct throw, DE diagnosed the play and hung back, tipped the ball.

Second play.  Allen just had a pass tipped.  At the point where he should have thrown (you can see Gore turning for the ball on the coach’s film) the DE has pushed the RT back into the throwing lane.Allen makes a motion, Gore streaks for the sideline as fast as 35 can streak.  If it’s Singletary, he gets there, Gore just gets a hand on it.

 

There’s no “couldn’t even hit this”, it was trying to extend the play.  It’s possible Gore didn’t run the route Allen expected, but I think it was Allen just putting the ball the only place he safely could where it would go out of bounds if Gore didn’t get it, and Gore not being quite able to get there.  

 

Now in a mature OL and a QB who trusts them, Allen would make the original designed throw and trust his OLmen to truck the damned defender if they jump for the tip, but we’re not there yet.

 

The problem is, people who don’t dig below the surface are all just “oh, Allen can’t even hit Gore in the flats, he’s all over the place”.  I’m not saying he never makes WTF? Throws, but that wasn’t one of them.

[Bangarang]

12 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Stop the nonsense.  I watched every throw he made the first two games and he was off on maybe 2 or 3.  He had a bad game last week, got out ahead of his skis a bit in a big moment and his mechanics suffered for it.  But the first three games he was fine.

Are you referring to all of his throws? To say he was off on 2 or 3 throws in his first 3 games is simply not true.

Edited October 5, 2019 by Bangarang

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Is this something you can get better at? It isn't always a mechanics issue for him. Sometimes he just overthrows it by 5 yards for no apparent reason. He may never be an accurate deep passer.

 

I worried when we drafted Allen because I couldn’t see why he was inaccurate, when he’s inaccurate.  I can never see it in real time anyway, but with some of the other college guys I could see their stance when they threw and predict if it would be a good throw or not (Lamar Jackson, for example).  I think someone else - Gunner - had the same experience.  Then I heard Jordan Palmer talking about what he worked on with Allen and it was subtle enough I couldn’t catch it.

 

The thing is deep balls are always a low percentage play.  There’s a lot of specificity to the timing with individual receivers and a lot of experience how to compensate for the wind, release off the line etc etc.  But my memory is so far a lot of Allen’s deep throws to date this year have been just plain poor mechanics, not resetting, throwing off his back foot etc

 

 

20 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I'm not surprised that Allen's better with medium passes.  We have better wideouts this season and Allen's been working hard on this.

 

I'm not completely surprised with the turnovers.  I expected more growing pains.

I am surprised with the anemic deep game.  The Bills have guys who can run and Allen has a cannon for an arm.  I expected more accuracy and productivity than what we've seen so far.   I admit, I'm worried. 

 

I could be wrong, I often am, but I think the Bills have been working hard with Allen at improving his short and medium game and timing with his new WR, and it came at the expense of working on deep throws with WR other than John Brown - who is usually covered like a blanket on those.

[Troll Toll]

IMO he has been very close to nailing deep throws last year and this year, but many times the receiver couldn’t finish. There are some guys who have an extra gear and haul those passes in. We don’t have that guy.

[oldmanfan]

20 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Are you referring to all of his throws? To say he was off on 2 or 3 throws in his first 3 games is simply not true.

I specifically watched every throw the first two games.  I had 2-3 that were truly off target.

[london_bills]

56 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

*sigh*.

 

First series against the Pats.  

First play.  Telegraphing pass - empty backfield.  Allen made the correct throw, DE diagnosed the play and hung back, tipped the ball.

Second play.  Allen just had a pass tipped.  At the point where he should have thrown (you can see Gore turning for the ball on the coach’s film) the DE has pushed the RT back into the throwing lane.Allen makes a motion, Gore streaks for the sideline as fast as 35 can streak.  If it’s Singletary, he gets there, Gore just gets a hand on it.

 

There’s no “couldn’t even hit this”, it was trying to extend the play.  It’s possible Gore didn’t run the route Allen expected, but I think it was Allen just putting the ball the only place he safely could where it would go out of bounds if Gore didn’t get it, and Gore not being quite able to get there.  

 

Now in a mature OL and a QB who trusts them, Allen would make the original designed throw and trust his OLmen to truck the damned defender if they jump for the tip, but we’re not there yet.

 

The problem is, people who don’t dig below the surface are all just “oh, Allen can’t even hit Gore in the flats, he’s all over the place”.  I’m not saying he never makes WTF? Throws, but that wasn’t one of them.

The second play you mention is the short throw to Gore I was mentioning. Just rewatched -  To me that is an inaccurate pass. 

 

You are right he is under pressure somewhat with the RT pushed back.

 

Second drive 1-10 incomplete throw to Beasley is another short open inaccurate pass. Don't think it's the wind that affects that one but the ball takes a strange trajectory.

Edited October 5, 2019 by london_bills

[Bangarang]

48 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I specifically watched every throw the first two games.  I had 2-3 that were truly off target.

What’s the difference between being off target and truly off target? If we are talking off target by NFL standards then I certainly recall more than just 2 or 3.

Edited October 5, 2019 by Bangarang

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, london_bills said:

The second play you mention is the short throw to Gore I was mentioning. Just rewatched -  To me that is an inaccurate pass. 

 

You are right he is under pressure somewhat with the RT pushed back.

 

Second drive 1-10 incomplete throw to Beasley is another short open inaccurate pass. Don't think it's the wind that affects that one.

 

"Under pressure somewhat" = DE has his hip past Ford, Ford either gonna be beaten like a drum or flagged for holding.  Or both

 

You can call it an inaccurate pass, whateves. Allen threw it where he had to throw it.  Look at ~13 and ~24 sec into the all-22 on that play.  If Allen throws it where Gore is, it's gonna be tipped by that big fat NE DE in the way.

 

The throw to Beasley is a bad pass.   Bad mechanics.  You can tell by his posture Allen knew it after the throw.  I think by that point Allen was hearing

footsteps.

 

Short passes are usually not impacted by wind.

 

Bottom line, think and believe what you like.  It really doesn't matter what any of us think.  Allen will either figure it out - or he won't.

 

[london_bills]

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

"Under pressure somewhat" = DE has his hip past Ford, Ford either gonna be beaten like a drum or flagged for holding.  Or both

 

You can call it an inaccurate pass, whateves. Allen threw it where he had to throw it.  Look at ~13 and ~24 sec into the all-22 on that play.  If Allen throws it where Gore is, it's gonna be tipped by that big fat NE DE in the way.

 

The throw to Beasley is a bad pass.   Bad mechanics.  You can tell by his posture Allen knew it after the throw.  I think by that point Allen was hearing

footsteps.

 

Short passes are usually not impacted by wind.

 

Bottom line, think and believe what you like.  It really doesn't matter what any of us think.  Allen will either figure it out - or he won't.

 

'Bottom line, think and believe what you like.  It really doesn't matter what any of us think.  Allen will either figure it out - or he won't.'

 

Exactly. But as fans we are bound to form an opinion of whether he's the franchise QB or not, even if it is somewhat fickle. Lets see further Sunday! Go Bills.

[london_bills]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I specifically watched every throw the first two games.  I had 2-3 that were truly off target.

Are you including the deep balls?

[fansince88]

I have 3 words....told you so.

[whorlnut]

Stay with me here...

 

I really believe some of Josh Allen’s deep ball inaccuracy can be blamed on not getting enough arc under the ball. He just doesn’t “drop the ball in the bucket” so to speak.  I think his arm is almost TOO strong. He has the ability to fire the ball on a straight line more than just about any other QB in the league, while most qbs have to get more air, or touch, under the ball to throw deep. By throwing on a line, the ball usually arrives in the defender’s face mask assuming our guy has him beat. This is also why he often overthrows. 
 

It became clear to me this past Sunday when I saw Darnold drop one in Robby Anderson’s arms from near the end zone. Darnold has to throw that bal with nearly all he had and had perfect arc under the ball to drop it right on Anderson. Allen would have fires a missile with ease and likely have overthrown his guy. Either that or the defender would have made a play due to the lack of touch. 
 

I think a lot of this can be corrected. Much has been made about Allen’s quick learning this offseason with short to intermediate throws. I expect this off-season to refine the other area Allen struggles with and you will see a complete qb in 2020. 

[billspro]

I think he will hit a couple this weekend and there will no longer be a concern.

[Don Otreply]

Much ado about very nearly nothing,  you guys must be as ready for a real game as I am....

 

Go Bills!!!

[bills11]

9 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Stay with me here...

 

I really believe some of Josh Allen’s deep ball inaccuracy can be blamed on not getting enough arc under the ball. He just doesn’t “drop the ball in the bucket” so to speak.  I think his arm is almost TOO strong. He has the ability to fire the ball on a straight line more than just about any other QB in the league, while most qbs have to get more air, or touch, under the ball to throw deep. By throwing on a line, the ball usually arrives in the defender’s face mask assuming our guy has him beat. This is also why he often overthrows. 
 

It became clear to me this past Sunday when I saw Darnold drop one in Robby Anderson’s arms from near the end zone. Darnold has to throw that bal with nearly all he had and had perfect arc under the ball to drop it right on Anderson. Allen would have fires a missile with ease and likely have overthrown his guy. Either that or the defender would have made a play due to the lack of touch. 
 

I think a lot of this can be corrected. Much has been made about Allen’s quick learning this offseason with short to intermediate throws. I expect this off-season to refine the other area Allen struggles with and you will see a complete qb in 2020. 

His ball trajectory issues are part mechanics part mental part feel/chemistry..there have been QBs with stronger arms or fairly equivalent like elway and young favre who knew how to throw the deep ball with touch and arc..it's an ongoing process when favre started in gb in practice he'd throw everything as a bullet pass.. Josh just has to learn to trust and get a consistent feel for his deep ball ..through his first 2 years every deep ball has had wildly different arc and velocity from great touch on the throw to Foster last year vs the jags and a great throw to Foster in the Vikings game that was dropped to not enough air on the ball missing John brown deep

[Thurman#1]

On 10/5/2019 at 5:45 AM, LeGOATski said:

I'm not too concerned about the deep stuff right now, since teams know that's a threat and they're focusing on it.

 

Daboll put more emphasis on the short game this year, as necessary. Once they establish success with short passing and the run game, they should have higher-percentage opportunities in the deep game later.

 

 

Opportunities haven't been the problem, as that Cover One video shows. Yikes.

 

Hopefully they can improve things.

 

 

[Pirate Angel]

Jets, titans, and ,Patriots all have good safeties which may be a reason

[Juice_32]

12 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Stay with me here...

 

I really believe some of Josh Allen’s deep ball inaccuracy can be blamed on not getting enough arc under the ball. He just doesn’t “drop the ball in the bucket” so to speak.  I think his arm is almost TOO strong. He has the ability to fire the ball on a straight line more than just about any other QB in the league, while most qbs have to get more air, or touch, under the ball to throw deep. By throwing on a line, the ball usually arrives in the defender’s face mask assuming our guy has him beat. This is also why he often overthrows. 
 

It became clear to me this past Sunday when I saw Darnold drop one in Robby Anderson’s arms from near the end zone. Darnold has to throw that bal with nearly all he had and had perfect arc under the ball to drop it right on Anderson. Allen would have fires a missile with ease and likely have overthrown his guy. Either that or the defender would have made a play due to the lack of touch. 
 

I think a lot of this can be corrected. Much has been made about Allen’s quick learning this offseason with short to intermediate throws. I expect this off-season to refine the other area Allen struggles with and you will see a complete qb in 2020. 

 

I completely agree. I’ve been saying this since his first preseason game. He’s got to get a little more air under the deep ones. 

[Brand J]

Would Josh be allowed to hire collegiate athletes? If I was him, in the off-season I’d hire about 10 guys with varying speeds (anywhere from 4.3 to 4.6) and have them run go route after go route. He’d work “in the pocket” on movement and launching those passes downfield, accurately hitting his targets. I said before he was misfiring on the long ball in his pro day workout. At the very least he should be hitting those passes against air. 

[whorlnut]

5 hours ago, bills11 said:

His ball trajectory issues are part mechanics part mental part feel/chemistry..there have been QBs with stronger arms or fairly equivalent like elway and young favre who knew how to throw the deep ball with touch and arc..it's an ongoing process when favre started in gb in practice he'd throw everything as a bullet pass.. Josh just has to learn to trust and get a consistent feel for his deep ball ..through his first 2 years every deep ball has had wildly different arc and velocity from great touch on the throw to Foster last year vs the jags and a great throw to Foster in the Vikings game that was dropped to not enough air on the ball missing John brown deep

Excellent post and I completely agree. 

[Guest]

Second year QB. Things eventually slow down, and that little pause to look before he throws goes away.

 

He makes his decision faster, and has a shorter pass to make with a more open receiver. That's how accuracy goes up. No mechanics, more just confidence to remove a lot of mental bad habits.

[Real McClappy]

Just turn into this Josh!

 

Please......

 

[WideNine]

On 10/18/2019 at 12:44 AM, bills11 said:

His ball trajectory issues are part mechanics part mental part feel/chemistry..there have been QBs with stronger arms or fairly equivalent like elway and young favre who knew how to throw the deep ball with touch and arc..it's an ongoing process when favre started in gb in practice he'd throw everything as a bullet pass.. Josh just has to learn to trust and get a consistent feel for his deep ball ..through his first 2 years every deep ball has had wildly different arc and velocity from great touch on the throw to Foster last year vs the jags and a great throw to Foster in the Vikings game that was dropped to not enough air on the ball missing John brown deep

 

Folks that tested Josh prior to the draft came to the same conclusion. His release was over 70 mph, and when tested on intermediate and longer throws that required dropping passes onto spot, the passes he was "feathering" into that area were still traveling on a rope at 50 mph.

 

His arm is literally almost too strong for his own good, but his accuracy was not an issue. It was how hard he threw the ball, it was that lack of throwing to a spot with touch and anticipation because he never had to because he could wait till he visually confirmed a receiver coming open and rifle the ball there. 

 

Allen has some amazing abilities, but he has a lot of new muscle memory that he has to develop to play consistently and at a higher level in this league. There are things that the Bills can capitalize on with that arm, and that is that Allen can throw that deep out like no one else in the league as most other QBs just do not have enough velocity to get a pass there without it ending in a INT. Daboll can work a lot more of those deep outs and come back routes and have success.

 

They have to find receivers who can catch hard passes with their hands, and Allen has to get better. You can tell that Allen is thinking about his touch on his shorter routes and they have been better. That lob to Lee Smith would likely have been a bullet bouncing off Smith's hands last year. The longer balls, I don't want him to force it as a lot of teams are keeping safeties deep, but he has had some long shots to Knox that were right on the money. Some is Allen, some have been that this is a young team with young team growing pains, and some have been good defensive plays.

 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2019 by WideNine

[Mike in Horseheads]

I'm sure he's hoping to get balls deep on Sunday

[CDogg20]

On 10/4/2019 at 5:24 PM, london_bills said:

On every one of those deep balls there's an underneath route open.

Is that you Trent? 

[london_bills]

7 hours ago, CDogg20 said:

Is that you Trent? 

Yes. I'm back in California now. Remember if josh doesn't connect on the deep ball, he should go underneath.

[fergie's ire]

On 10/18/2019 at 3:44 AM, bills11 said:

His ball trajectory issues are part mechanics part mental part feel/chemistry..there have been QBs with stronger arms or fairly equivalent like elway and young favre who knew how to throw the deep ball with touch and arc..it's an ongoing process when favre started in gb in practice he'd throw everything as a bullet pass.. Josh just has to learn to trust and get a consistent feel for his deep ball ..through his first 2 years every deep ball has had wildly different arc and velocity from great touch on the throw to Foster last year vs the jags and a great throw to Foster in the Vikings game that was dropped to not enough air on the ball missing John brown deep

Even the long pass to Foster against the Jags was really thrown on the line.  It was not the type of deep pass that drops into the arms of a receiver with a defender on his back.  Even last year, he did not hit those consistently.  But it seemed to me he was even worse at the same type of throw at intermediate distance (receiver...or often tight end...20 yards down field, dropping it over the defender near the sideline).  It was striking to me when we played Barkley, who would make that throw, that Josh just didn't seem to have that ability....yet.  However, I HAVE seen him make that throw several times this year, both in pre and regular season.  But yeah....needs to start practicing that deep throw.

[YoloinOhio]

Week 8 is approaching ... maybe Foster gets unpacked week 8 every year? 

 

No one else is working on those 

[DJB]

I do think  if we established  more of a deep threat it would  help the underneath  routes. Not sure why MacKenzie   isn't being sent deep more often. 

 

That said difference from this year and last year is our record. We've been winning games so going  for the deep ball more often is less likely when you have the lead. Last year we were behind and chasing so going deep would  seem to be a play  to go for more often

[Not at the table Karlos]

On 10/4/2019 at 4:45 PM, LeGOATski said:

I'm not too concerned about the deep stuff right now, since teams know that's a threat and they're focusing on it.

 

Daboll put more emphasis on the short game this year, as necessary. Once they establish success with short passing and the run game, they should have higher-percentage opportunities in the deep game later.

Is it really a threat when he’s completed 2 of 31 with only 10 being on target? He may have a big arm but chances are that deep ball isn’t going to be anywhere near the WR.  

 

Its not the defense focusing on it its allen can’t throw it where anyone can come down with it. The receivers are getting open but the ball flies 20 yards over their head.

 

 

He seems to struggle when the receivers are running vertically at full speed. He throws it as hard as he can on a frozen rope and there’s no chance to run under it. When the receivers are running more horizontally he seems to be more accurate. The foster deep ball vs jags and lions last year foster was running across the field and he threw it to a good spot

Edited October 21, 2019 by Not at the table Karlos

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

How is it a threat when he’s completed 2 of 31 with only 10 being on target? He may have a big arm but chances are that deep ball isn’t going to be anywhere near the WR.  

 

Its not the defense focusing on it its allen can’t throw it where anyone can come down with it. The receivers are getting open but the ball flies 20 yards over their head.

The threat comes from the WRs. The Bills have Brown, Roberts, Foster, and sometimes McKenzie. The defense has to respect their ability to get behind them and separate. 

 

Simply taking the shot is what keeps the defense in check. As long as the Bills don't abandon it, they'll be alright. Daboll indicated that he'll keep calling those deep shots regardless, which only makes sense.

[bills11]

20 hours ago, fergie's ire said:

Even the long pass to Foster against the Jags was really thrown on the line.  It was not the type of deep pass that drops into the arms of a receiver with a defender on his back.  Even last year, he did not hit those consistently.  But it seemed to me he was even worse at the same type of throw at intermediate distance (receiver...or often tight end...20 yards down field, dropping it over the defender near the sideline).  It was striking to me when we played Barkley, who would make that throw, that Josh just didn't seem to have that ability....yet.  However, I HAVE seen him make that throw several times this year, both in pre and regular season.  But yeah....needs to start practicing that deep throw.

Yep and he did it again earlier..there's something very odd about his mechanics..On the deep ball he missed for a wide open TD to Roberts he drops the ball much lower then his usual throwing motion then throws this wobbly bullet with no arc . Daboll needs to have him after practice just practice putting air under the ball with the qb coach over and over till it becomes natural ..he's shown the ability to throw with touch everywhere except deep 

[K-Apps]

I know it’s Cian, but man Josh Allen needs to put touch on his deep ball:

 

 

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, K-Apps said:

I know it’s Cian, but man Josh Allen needs to put touch on his deep ball:

 

 

21% isn't far off from the league average of 35% when you take into account we don't throw downfield often

 

1-3 more completions and he's probably over 30%

Edited October 23, 2019 by Buffalo716

[Pokebball]

If you're moving the ball with the running and short passing game, the deep ball needs to be tossed a couple three times a game to keep the defense honest. 

 

My expectation is that the offense moves the chains, not so much how they do it.

Edited October 23, 2019 by Pokebball