Matt Miller: 2020 draft set to have a "historic group" at WR, RB

[skibum]

2 hours ago, billspro said:

 

The preparation of this front office is unique. The wins will come and they will be sustained.

I think it's also great that they are taking care of the trenches and TE first.

 

Your skill players all look better with good blocking. It generally doesn't work the other way around. 

[aristocrat]

Who’s gonna be available around 32?

[mannc]

2 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

You're missing the difference between what will happen and what you think should happen.  In the event they go 8-8 or 9-7, neither will be fired.  I think they shouldn't but reasonable minds can disagree. Your opinion on what you think should happen is an outlier, and certainly not representative of what will likely happen. 

You're right.  I'm talking about what should happen, not necessarily what will happen.  I don't think anyone here knows for sure what the Pegulas will do, and of course there are a ton of variables other than the record that can and will determine how safe McDermott is.  I can foresee circumstances in which the team goes 8-8 and he's entirely safe and I can foresee circumstances where 9-7 lands him in the hot seat.  Getting badly outcoached by Belichick two more times would be a huge concern, no matter what the record is (short of winning 12 or 13 games, of course).  I don't think my opinion is really much of an outlier, but I don't particularly care one way or the other.?    

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is crazy but you could have drafted a receiver this year and you could draft one next year!!! ?

 

and these things are so fluid.  2017 was supposedly a bad qb class and 2018 was a great one.  Well possibly the 2 best qbs were in the 2017 class. 

Sure you could

 

but.....in this draft it seemed that the strong positions were DL and TE?   We heard that a lot?

 

and who did we take.....we even doubled down on TE's

[billieve420]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

Yeah, unfortunately, folks are already lowering the bar for this year, saying they would be OK with 8-8 or 9-7--in other words, the same as under Rex--and that McDermott is pretty much guaranteed another year unless they go 2-14.  

 

I could not disagree more.  I think this year they need to (1) make the playoffs, and (2) win at least one game vs. NE or their seats are going to be extremely warm.  I do think Beane is on a longer leash than McDermott.   

 

The only way the seats get warm is if the team totally collapses and Allen takes a step back. McDermott just needs to be anti rex and he gets the full 5 years.

[LSHMEAB]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

 The Bills ALREADY have Ian McKenzie (former 5th round pick, has gadget versatility, and who the staff clearly likes) and Duke Williams (CFL's leading WR last year) vying for that spot. What are the odds that a 4th or 5th round WR would have beaten out these two guys? Last year, the Bills drafted two WRs just because they needed them: Ray Ray McCloud and Austin Proehl. How did that work out? 
 

I would say the odds of a 4th/5th RD receiver beating out Duke Williams and McKitrick would be great if they were good.

 

Proehl and Ray Ray were just bad picks; period. The regime has yet to prove they can properly assess or develop receivers. They've done many things well, but the receiver position has not been one. I love Beasley so I'm pretty confident he'll work out. Foster looks like a guy who will be a vertical threat AT THE LEAST. Other than that, who knows?

 

Overall, it's great that they have a plan, but I think the plan needs to include winning football games starting now. That will be the ultimate measure of their success.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[TigerJ]

Buffalo has to draft D'andre Swift next year.  It's too perfect.  The fastest running back in the draft is named "Swift."  It would be like drafting a receiver name "Catch"  or of an offensive guard named Dozer.

[McGee Return TD]

No TE on this list? Albert Okwuegbunam from Missouri is going to be a top 10 player next year. Learn to pronounce his name.

[The Now Moment]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

I just like the analogy that a receiving core should be like a basketball team.  We have the other guys but we really need a c/ PF type.  Young qbs need a big guy to just throw the ball up to.  

I guess Duke Williams isn’t getting a chance to compete for a job? We also have a 6’6” tight end and drafted a 6’4” target for Allen. I guess they don’t count either? It’s like you haven’t watched Gronk destroy this team for years. The patriots didn’t have a tall wide receiver, just guys that can create separation and space. The chiefs are built on speed not height. Bring in guys that can get open so our Qb doesn’t need to make a perfect pass every time, that’s how you really help him. 

 

 

[billspro]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

They went backwards this year.  The wins need to start this year.  

 

I don’t think anyone will argue with that. I feel confident they will win this year. 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

I guess Duke Williams isn’t getting a chance to compete for a job? We also have a 6’6” tight end and drafted a 6’4” target for Allen. I guess they don’t count either? It’s like you haven’t watched Gronk destroy this team for years. The patriots didn’t have a tall wide receiver, just guys that can create separation and space. The chiefs are built on speed not height. Bring in guys that can get open so our Qb doesn’t need to make a perfect pass every time, that’s how you really help him. 

 

 

 

 

Every team has a myriad of guys on the level of Duke Williams or David Sills.   Bottom line is that it's a matchup league and the Bills have a bottom 1/3 of the NFL WR and TE corps.   No defense is losing any sleep over the prospect of having to match up with Cole Beasley and John Brown.

[The Now Moment]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Every team has a myriad of guys on the level of Duke Williams or David Sills.   Bottom line is that it's a matchup league and the Bills have a bottom 1/3 of the NFL WR and TE corps.   No defense is losing any sleep over the prospect of having to match up with Cole Beasley and John Brown.

Or we could show some patience and draft a guy next year and not have to spend $20 million. I get fans are antsy but it’s not the best option for sustained success IMO. Build through the draft. 

[Warcodered]

This thread got me to look up Jerry Jeudy....this kid is ridiculous.

 

 

 

[The Now Moment]

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I would say the odds of a 4th/5th RD receiver beating out Duke Williams and McKitrick would be great if they were good.

 

Proehl and Ray Ray were just bad picks; period. The regime has yet to prove they can properly assess or develop receivers. They've done many things well, but the receiver position has not been one. I love Beasley so I'm pretty confident he'll work out. Foster looks like a guy who will be a vertical threat AT THE LEAST. Other than that, who knows?

 

Overall, it's great that they have a plan, but I think the plan needs to include winning football games starting now. That will be the ultimate measure of their success.

 

 

I’m pretty sure that winning games now is part of the plan haha. They added a ton of talent this offseason. They redid almost half the team. For some of the fans here to criticize about them not grabbing a 5th new wide receiver this offseason is a bit absurd. They had a tall order going in to the offseason and with what resources and players they had available to them, they did quite well. If we have a run game again and Allen improves only slightly coupled with an improved defense, why couldn’t they make the playoffs or be right there? We saw a much less talented team make it two years ago. 

 

Would much rather grab a receiver in round 1 next year and have him on a rookie contract than give up our 1st round pick for a $20 million receiver. They’rebuilding for long term success...doesn’t mean they need to have a top 5 passing attack right away. 

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Proehl and Ray Ray were just bad picks; period. The regime has yet to prove they can properly assess or develop receivers. They've done many things well, but the receiver position has not been one. I love Beasley so I'm pretty confident he'll work out. Foster looks like a guy who will be a vertical threat AT THE LEAST. Other than that, who knows?

 

Both of the coaches for WR position were not impressive and each were let go.  I think that reflects in the draft process for coaches' opinion is often asked on prospective candidates.  We know it was true with Zay Jones whose college coach became Bills WR coach with Coach McD dumping a good WR coach in process.

[buffalover4life]

7 hours ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

Four guys I won't stop talking about for the next 12 months:

 

Ceedee Lamb-WR Oklahoma 6'2 189

Trey Adams-LT Washington 6'7 327

Yatur Gross Matos-DE Penn State 6'5 261

Kenny Willekes-DE Michigan State 6'4 260

When we didn't draft a wr in the first 2 rounds my attention immediately shifted to CeeDee Lamb.

 

CeeDee Lamb has the body control to be our Deandre Hopkins

 

if we are in the 20s in the 2020 draft I could see Beane making an expensive move to get in position to draft this transcendent talent. The move will coincide with Bills spending to cap as they try to swing for the fences while we still have josh on a value contract...My guess..

 

Edited May 8, 2019 by buffalover4life

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

Or we could show some patience and draft a guy next year and not have to spend $20 million. I get fans are antsy but it’s not the best option for sustained success IMO. Build through the draft. 

 

 

Nothing to do with being "antsy" or even not fielding a SB competitor for 20 years.

 

It's about what's best for Allen.

 

The blueprint for elevating the level of young QB's has been to stock the roster with top level receivers and see what that QB has got without having to make excuses.

 

The thing the Bills organization can least afford is for Allen to have another awful passing season this year.

 

And talented or not breaking in a rookie WR1 in 2020 is not ideal for a team that probably HAS to be a contender or else........and little consolation if Allen is coming off a 54% completion % and more interceptions than TD's in 2019 again.  

 

At that point there will be a lot of questions about  "the process" and McBeane year 4 and Allen's career become reclamation projects.

 

Ultimately what you are talking about is slow building a roster...........the math on that doesn't work anymore.

 

Rookie contracts only run 4 years now before big $ decisions and/or free agency have to happen. 

 

Thus,  the roster balance that fans inherently crave is ultimately not sustainable...........you take care of what's most important.....at this stage of their QB development  maximum QB support is the blueprint.

 

You make due elsewhere.    

 

With a young QB there really isn't time to patiently stack talent like the late 80's Bills or even like Marv and Jauron who drafted players like Donte Whitner and Aaron Maybin knowing that they would have them for 6 years.

 

You gotta' prop up your young QB to find out if he's franchise or not.........in the process you get him to the point where he doesn't need "as much" talent around him by year 5 and when the roster dynamic starts changing dramatically.

 

If you slow play it and make excuses then before you know it you end up with a Ryan Tannehill situation where you may even be compelled to extend him and pass on other QB's in the draft while not knowing what he can do.

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

We got our RB so here's to WR ! ( or DE if our WRs are good ).

 

 

[ProcessTruster]

14 hours ago, Logic said:

 

Foster
Brown 
Beasley
Jones

With those 4 guys likely being locked in at WR and with the Bills set to carry no more than 6 WRs maximum, one of whom will likely be return man Andre Roberts, and with useful players like Ian McKenzie and Duke Williams also vying for playing time....it's crazy to me that people are so put out about the Bills not drafting a WR5. They did, however, go out and get two UDFA WRs in Easley and Sills who, had they been drafted in the 5th round, would have received universal praise from Bills fans.

I get wanting the Bills to draft a WR. I also get why they DIDN'T draft a WR, and I think anyone that got too bent out of shape about it is/was being silly. You can't just take a guy at a position just because you need one, and say value be damned. If you go by the "Best player available" strategy, which Beane has told us again and again he does, you begin to see that the best player left on the board each time the Bills picked was NOT a wide receiver. Go back and look at the Singletary pick and the WRs available at that time. Who should they have picked? Ditto the Knox pick. You could argue that they should've taken a guy in the 5th or 6th round, but at that point the odds that said player would have a substantial impact are low any way. And again, they got what many believed to be 5th/6th round caliber talent at WR via undrafted free agency in Sills and Easley.

 

Brown and Beasley were great pickups.   Much better than draft picks and rookies.  

[The Now Moment]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Nothing to do with being "antsy" or even not fielding a SB competitor for 20 years.

 

It's about what's best for Allen.

 

The blueprint for elevating the level of young QB's has been to stock the roster with top level receivers and see what that QB has got without having to make excuses.

 

The thing the Bills organization can least afford is for Allen to have another awful passing season this year.

 

And talented or not breaking in a rookie WR1 in 2020 is not ideal for a team that probably HAS to be a contender or else........and little consolation if Allen is coming off a 54% completion % and more interceptions than TD's in 2019 again.  

 

At that point there will be a lot of questions about  "the process" and McBeane year 4 and Allen's career become reclamation projects.

 

Ultimately what you are talking about is slow building a roster...........the math on that doesn't work anymore.

 

Rookie contracts only run 4 years now before big $ decisions and/or free agency have to happen. 

 

Thus,  the roster balance that fans inherently crave is ultimately not sustainable...........you take care of what's most important.....at this stage of their QB development  maximum QB support is the blueprint.

 

You make due elsewhere.    

 

With a young QB there really isn't time to patiently stack talent like the late 80's Bills or even like Marv and Jauron who drafted players like Donte Whitner and Aaron Maybin knowing that they would have them for 6 years.

 

You gotta' prop up your young QB to find out if he's franchise or not.........in the process you get him to the point where he doesn't need "as much" talent around him by year 5 and when the roster dynamic starts changing dramatically.

 

If you slow play it and make excuses then before you know it you end up with a Ryan Tannehill situation where you may even be compelled to extend him and pass on other QB's in the draft while not knowing what he can do.

 

I understand the situation. However, you must have the opportunity to trade and it has to be the right player at the right cost. I would not trade our 1st round pick next year for cooper when there is a potentially great class of wide receivers/weapons coming out next year. That could be a player you pair with Allen for the next decade. Cooper will have already been on his 3rd team if we make a deal. That’s raising a lot of red flags. 

 

I understand the need to have more talent around Allen but it has to be the right player at the right cost. Antonio Brown was the right cost but the wrong player. AJ Green is a free agent next season. If we were to trade for a top guy, he could be the target. Bengals are a rebuilding team and we are loading up for a run. He could cost less because he is 30 and on the last year of his deal. Availability is a question mark but for a rebuilding bengals team, a draft pick may be more important to them. He’s a more appropriate target IMO but patience is necessary. There’s months before they play a game and teams haven’t been able to evaluate all of their new pieces yet. 

Edited May 8, 2019 by Buffalo30

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

9 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

So basically you are saying they aren't getting fired because you like them.... despite them impressing you a mediocre 8-8 season and 3 mediocre to below average years since coming here wouldn't be impressive at all.

 

There's plenty of examples of recent teams being awful and then going far into the playoffs in the first or second year of their new regimes.... but some fans here would be ok with McBeane hovering around .500 for 3 straight years. 

 

I get it. Many Bills fans are used to absolutely awful football that even average football is considered impressive, but look around the league and get some perspective. It's not.??

And just about every instance of that happening was because the team already had an established franchise quarterback. Those teams didn’t have to do the hard work of clearing the dead cap and developing a new franchise quarterback. But sure, let’s just talk out of our ass. 

[Wsam4031]

15 hours ago, Turk71 said:

Hakeem Butler will be a star imo. Nothing against Singletary or Knox and I am hoping they both turn out to be awesome picks, but I think front offices were wrong to pass on Butler in the 3rd round. Also every big board I could find had him higher than both of those guys, I am sure there were boards like Buffalo's that didn't but I couldn't find them. 

   I am happy with the Bills draft and this is not a complaint but GMs are wrong a lot and the fact that they pass on players is not an indication or proof that they were right to do so. I understand the rosterability part, but the Bills don't have any 6'5" 230 lb 4.48 40 wrs who led the nation in 20+ yd receptions.

Hoping we get lucky, solid strategy.?

I really liked Butler too. I think he becomes the best of the group drafted this year. I was bummed when they didn't take him.

[Fan in Chicago]

54 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

I understand the situation. However, you must have the opportunity to trade and it has to be the right player at the right cost. I would not trade our 1st round pick next year for cooper when there is a potentially great class of wide receivers/weapons coming out next year. That could be a player you pair with Allen for the next decade. Cooper will have already been on his 3rd team if we make a deal. That’s raising a lot of red flags. 

 

I understand the need to have more talent around Allen but it has to be the right player at the right cost. Antonio Brown was the right cost but the wrong player. AJ Green is a free agent next season. If we were to trade for a top guy, he could be the target. Bengals are a rebuilding team and we are loading up for a run. He could cost less because he is 30 and on the last year of his deal. Availability is a question mark but for a rebuilding bengals team, a draft pick may be more important to them. He’s a more appropriate target IMO but patience is necessary. There’s months before they play a game and teams haven’t been able to evaluate all of their new pieces yet. 

 

Trades are tricky and not much information gets out unless it goes through or they are for a high profile player. Some may argue that "the trade opportunities were not there" but McBeane (sorry Kirby) have conveniently been able to trade when they have wanted to. Which leads me to believe that they just didnt like the top listed WRs this year. While I disagree with BADOL that our WRs are the bottom 1/3rd (time will tell), I do agree with him that we need to err on the side of too much talent on the receiving side. Like everyone, I am happy that at least there is lot of competition on the OL and Allen should have plenty of protection. But, the Bills should still be in the market for a WR and DE. Worst case, jump on the cuts which are coming in case a one-year rental is available at these positions. A player-for-player trade for one of these positions should also be on the table. 

Edited May 8, 2019 by Fan in Chicago

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

10 hours ago, Warcodered said:

This thread got me to look up Jerry Jeudy....this kid is ridiculous.

 

 

 

 

Wow- more athletic than Sammy 

[BillsVet]

16 hours ago, mannc said:

Yeah, unfortunately, folks are already lowering the bar for this year, saying they would be OK with 8-8 or 9-7--in other words, the same as under Rex--and that McDermott is pretty much guaranteed another year unless they go 2-14.  

 

I could not disagree more.  I think this year they need to (1) make the playoffs, and (2) win at least one game vs. NE or their seats are going to be extremely warm.  I do think Beane is on a longer leash than McDermott.   

 

I'm confident McBeane have been given assurances by ownership that their tenure will last at least 4 years.  It's why they handled the cap in seasons 1 and 2 by shedding big contracts and taking the patient approach to rebuilding.     

 

They've identified their QB of the future, overhauled the roster, (save a few veterans) and spent big money on UFAs this off-season.  McD has 3 1st round picks and multiple UFAs to staff his defense.  He also has the same OC from 2018 to 2019.   

 

They need to show an ability to defeat good teams more regularly and beat up on the bad teams.  One would think after 3 off-seasons of rebuilding they'd be ready for that.

[The Now Moment]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

 

Trades are tricky and not much information gets out unless it goes through or they are for a high profile player. Some may argue that "the trade opportunities were not there" but McBeane (sorry Kirby) have conveniently been able to trade when they have wanted to. Which leads me to believe that they just didnt like the top listed WRs this year. While I disagree with BADOL that our WRs are the bottom 1/3rd (time will tell), I do agree with him that we need to err on the side of too much talent on the receiving side. Like everyone, I am happy that at least there is lot of competition on the OL and Allen should have plenty of protection. But, the Bills should still be in the market for a WR and DE. Worst case, jump on the cuts which are coming in case a one-year rental is available at these positions. A player-for-player trade for one of these positions should also be on the table. 

I agree trades are tricky and trade opportunities are always available but it's more about the right player/cost for this team right now.  Cooper would have to come in and be fantastic to be worth trading next year's first for and then giving him the biggest wide receiver contract ever.  That's a lot of pressure on Cooper.  Could be the perfect fit and be the guy for Allen, could be a major set back to the team and its future. Are we sure we want to make a deal like that before we know what we have with the 5 new receivers we brought in (Brown, Beasley, Sills, Williams and Roberts)?  Foster is going into year two and Jones into year three.  Some people talk about them as if they've peaked already.  I'd rather see some action with the group we have first before pulling the trigger on a move like that.  

 

Clearly, all options are being explored.  

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

12 hours ago, Buffalo30 said:

Or we could show some patience and draft a guy next year and not have to spend $20 million. I get fans are antsy but it’s not the best option for sustained success IMO. Build through the draft. 

 

How is 20 mil this year and next for a #1 Wide receiver hurting the team in any way? Or what if we drafted one in the 3rd round (or trade up to late 2nd) instead of getting a 3rd/4th string RB. Then they could draft one next year as well since I don't see Brown/Beasley being very effective into their mid-30s

[Needle]

For once it seems like the timing of available talent is lining up with the Bills needs. How many years have we watched them take a QB in a weak class or a RB when other positions were strong or miss a franchise player by one pick or trade up when they should trade down etc.?

 

It's all on paper and means nothing but it feels like a positive direction.

Edited May 8, 2019 by Needle

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Wow- more athletic than Sammy 

 

...plus the 'Bama Connection".......interesting...........

[Mr. WEO]

Laviska Shenault and Donovan Peoples-Jones are currently "household names"?

[C.Biscuit97]

 

7 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

Brown and Beasley were great pickups.   Much better than draft picks and rookies.  

I mean I really like the Beasley pick up and Brown is solid (completely overpaid) but they kinda are what they are at this point.  The upside on a draft pick can be an elite player at a low cost. 

[Ralonzo]

On 5/7/2019 at 9:41 PM, TigerJ said:

Buffalo has to draft D'andre Swift next year.  It's too perfect.  The fastest running back in the draft is named "Swift."  It would be like drafting a receiver name "Catch"  or of an offensive guard named Dozer.

Or a defensive back named "Corner" or "Nickell"?

[ddaryl]

Nice when your GM / Scouting department has fore sight to have probable team needs / upgrades line up with perceived draft strengths. All while keeping the cap in check to hold onto sed smart picks in the future.

 

Here's hoping it all comes together

 

 

1 hour ago, Ralonzo said:

Or a defensive back named "Corner" or "Nickell"?

 

"Dime" Bag Murphy. Never got drafted due to off field issues

[Thurman#1]

On 5/8/2019 at 5:01 AM, BillsVet said:

On one hand, you're highlighting the signing of UDFAs and then talking about 5th or 6th rounders not likely having a substantial impact.

 

Foster may continue to improve. Zay could start producing when it matters and develop better chemistry with Allen.  Brown and Beasley may play like they did with previous teams in their respective roles. 

 

The question is whether or not McBeane were confident in their WR group coming out of the draft.  Apparently they are.  We're going to see if they were right, but history being what it is, McBeane haven't shown a propensity for evaluating let alone developing offensive skill position talent.  

 

Lot of "ifs" and "hopefullys." 

 

 

 

 

The problem is not so much that he has had problems evaluating or developing offensive skill position talent.

 

It's that they haven't had the cap situation and draft resources to allow them to spend almost any resources on the offense the last couple of years. For what they spent (mostly UDFAs and vet min deals and an occasional flier), the returns were actually pretty solid. For every injured Matthews and just not good enough Benjamin, there's been a UDFA Foster, a vet min McKenzie, a cheap Chris Ivory, a near-minimum Marcus Murphy ... They just haven't poured the resources there in the past. This year they committed themselves a bit more. We'll be better able to see how they hit, and worth noting that next year's draft is supposed to be tremendous for WRs.

 

We are indeed going to see if they are right going forward.

[Thurman#1]

 

 

 

On 5/8/2019 at 11:28 AM, ScottLaw said:

So basically you are saying they aren't getting fired because you like them.... despite them impressing you a mediocre 8-8 season and 3 mediocre to below average years since coming here wouldn't be impressive at all.

 

There's plenty of examples of recent teams being awful and then going far into the playoffs in the first or second year of their new regimes.... but some fans here would be ok with McBeane hovering around .500 for 3 straight years. 

 

I get it. Many Bills fans are used to absolutely awful football that even average football is considered impressive, but look around the league and get some perspective. It's not.??

 

 

 

Um, no. He's saying that they aren't getting fired because the Pegulas like them. That's massively different from saying that a poster on a message board likes them, Scott.

 

And that the Pegulas knew that the first couple of years were not likely to be good.

 

And yeah, there are plenty of examples of teams being awful and then going far into the playoffs in the first or second year of their new regimes. Those instances happened in reload situations. Or sometimes it happens in situations where the "awful" year was the second or third year of a rebuild. Where it simply doesn't happen is in near-complete rebuilds like the one going on here. 

 

And it ain't about whether fans would be OK with 3 straight years of not being very good. It's understanding that rebuilds show massive improvement in the third year a very small amount of the time. I found it was around 20% of the time when I did a major research project a few years back on rebuilds and successful rebuilds in particular. Much more often it takes till the fourth or sometimes even the fifth year for successful rebuilds to hit the real fast track. No, fans wouldn't be thrilled. But the smarter ones would understand, through their exasperation. I absolutely expect some real improvement this year. But it's very possible that that improvement might result in maybe two or three or four more wins, and that would not look like a bad thing at all ... in the long run.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Thurman#1

[mannc]

15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Um, no. He's saying that they aren't getting fired because the Pegulas like them. That's massively different from saying that a poster on a message board likes them, Scott.

 

And that the Pegulas knew that the first couple of years were not likely to be good.

 

And yeah, plenty of examples of teams being awful and then going far into the playoffs in the first or second year of their new regimes. Those instances happened in reload situations. Or sometimes it happens in situations where the "awful" year was the second or third year of a rebuild. Where it simply doesn't happen is in near-complete rebuilds like the one going on here. 

 

And it ain't about whether fans would be OK with 3 straight years of not being very good. It's understanding that rebuilds show massive improvement in the third year a very small amount of the time. I found it was around 20% of the time when I did a major research project a few years back on rebuilds and successful rebuilds in particular. Much more often it takes till the fourth or sometimes even the fifth year for successful rebuilds to hit the real fast track. No, fans wouldn't be thrilled. But the smarter ones would understand, through their exasperation. I absolutely expect some real improvement this year. But it's very possible that that improvement might result in maybe two or three or four more wins, and that would not look like a bad thing at all ... in the long run.

I'm not going to get into what the Pegulas "knew" about how the first couple years would play out or how much they like McBeane; that's nothing but speculation.

 

Here's the situation:  Through two years, McBeane has the same record as the Rex Ryan regime, and they have been utterly noncompetitive against NE.  They need to show significantly better results this year or people are going to seriously question whether they know what they are doing.  That probably means making the playoffs and winning a game against NE.  I can't predict whether a failure to achieve that would lead to one or both being fired, but, depending on how it all unfolds, it could very well land them in the hot seat.  

Edited May 10, 2019 by mannc

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Four or five years? Seriously?

 

Tell me who the last franchise was with the same regime that won in their fourth year after three straight mediocre seasons?

 

You don't get 5 years in this league with 4 straight mediocre years. Just doesn't happen. 

 

Anything less than 9 wins is disappointing IMO. 

I can pretty much guarantee that in his interview, McDermott did not tell Pegula he was going to completely tear down the team that Rex coached to a .500 record and that the process would take 4-5 years.  

[Thurman#1]

47 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Four or five years? Seriously?

 

Tell me who the last franchise was with the same regime that won in their fourth year after three straight mediocre seasons?

 

You don't get 5 years in this league with 4 straight mediocre years. Just doesn't happen. 

 

Anything less than 9 wins is disappointing IMO. 

 

 

Sorry, that's not a difficult challenge, Scott.

 

The Harbaugh Niners are a recent one. They reloaded with Harbaugh and a few extra guys. And it had been an awful lot more than three mediocre seasons, and yet that FO was not turned out, they'd been one long regime under McCloughan and Baalke for around eight years, a regime that kept chugging right along. The Texans didn't win ten games till the 6th year of Rick Smith's tenure at GM. Look at Ozzie Newsome's first four years in Baltimore.  Look at the Jags' current GM, Caldwell. Four very mediocre years from 2013 to 2016 and he's still there. So that's just wrong that you don't get 5 years after 4 straight mediocre years. It's not all that common but it happens. The way it actually works is that some owners have patience and some don't.

 

And that's fine that you think less than 9 wins would be disappointing. Unless your real last name is Pegula, it's hard for me to care whether you'll be disappointed. Not that I'd be thrilled myself. But if it happens and they win seven or eight and show signs of progress, I'll understand why they keep McDermott and Beane.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

 

 

 

42 minutes ago, mannc said:

I can pretty much guarantee that in his interview, McDermott did not tell Pegula he was going to completely tear down the team that Rex coached to a .500 record and that the process would take 4-5 years.  

 

 

I'd agree. He said he was going to tear down the Rex team and that the process was going to take time. Why would he say it would take 4-5 years when there certainly was a chance it would only take three, not a great chance, but a chance.

 

 

 

 

47 minutes ago, mannc said:

I'm not going to get into what the Pegulas "knew" about how the first couple years would play out or how much they like McBeane; that's nothing but speculation.

 

Here's the situation:  Through two years, McBeane has the same record as the Rex Ryan regime, and they have been utterly noncompetitive against NE.  They need to show significantly better results this year or people are going to seriously question whether they know what they are doing.  That probably means making the playoffs and winning a game against NE.  I can't predict whether a failure to achieve that would lead to one or both being fired, but, depending on how it all unfolds, it could very well land them in the hot seat.  

 

It's not speculation that they told the Pegulas the cap situation was a disaster and promised to get it in great shape by the 2019 season. Which meant a rebuild. Nor is it speculation that they like this regime. They hired McDermott and it was about a week later that they loved him so much they put him in charge over Whaley who at that point looked like the one guy that they really trusted and liked. They absolutely do love this brain trust. Not that that means that if the team falls apart it would all be OK. But the Pegulas understand rebuilds.

 

And yeah, the first two seasons of that rebuild have not shown inspiring football, particularly against good teams. That's what rebuilds look like for the first two years.

 

And agreed, if they don't show progress this year I'd agree that the hot seat is a good possibility. But it won't require playoffs and winning a game against NE. It'll require observable progress.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Thurman#1

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Sorry, that's not a difficult challenge, Scott.

 

The Harbaugh Niners are a recent one. They reloaded with Harbaugh and a few extra guys. And it had been an awful lot more than three mediocre seasons, and yet that FO was not turned out, they'd been one long regime under McCloughan and Baalke for around eight years, a regime that kept chugging right along. The Texans didn't win ten games till the 6th year of Rick Smith's tenure at GM. Look at Ozzie Newsome's first four years in Baltimore.  Look at the Jags' current GM, Caldwell. Four very mediocre years from 2013 to 2016 and he's still there. So that's just wrong that you don't get 5 years after 4 straight mediocre years. It's not all that common but it happens. The way it actually works is that some owners have patience and some don't.

 

And that's fine that you think less than 9 wins would be disappointing. Unless your real last name is Pegula, it's hard for me to care whether you'll be disappointed. Not that I'd be thrilled myself. But if it happens and they win seven or eight and show signs of progress, I'll understand why they keep McDermott and Beane.

 

 

I'd agree. He said he was going to tear down the Rex team and that the process was going to take time. Why would he say it would take 4-5 years when there certainly was a chance it would only take three, not a great chance, but a chance.

I don't disagree, in that I assume Beane, as a GM, has a significantly longer leash than McDermott does.  Everyone assumes that the two are attached at the hip and that if one goes, they both go.  I don't think that's necessarily the case.  If the Bills go 6-10 again this year and McDermott once again looks like a deer in headlights against Belichick, then Beane might feel pressure to make a difficult decision.