Joe Marino (Locked on Bills): Two names he is hearing in 1st for Bills: Jonah Williams, DK Metcalf

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'm looking at the empirical charts that are calculated from previous trades, which are far more accurate than the JJ chart, and the draft class itself. This class is nowhere close to the QB class last year was. It's more reminiscent of 2017, perhaps (where KC gave a future 1st (2nd in value) and a 3rd to go from 27 to 10). Moving up from the early teens to 9 is very unlikely to net a 2nd. Not with this draft class.

In fact, it didn’t net a second round pick even last year.  Arizona only gave up a third (plus a late round pick) to move from 15 to 10 to select their QB of the (very brief) future.

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, ducej11 said:

 

What did he think the three mistakes were by Beane?

I skimmed through and did not see an answer to this.

 

1)  No vetran QB on the roster to start the season.  A mistake fixed by signing Barkley and Anderson.

 

2) Not retooling OL after departures of Wood, Igcognito and Glenn.  I'd argue this was attempted but was done so on the cheap due to dead cap constraints.

 

3) Having big targets Benjamin and Holmes as WR1 and WR3 to start the season.  I'd argue that they were not the wrong type of receiver to have, just that they were not good enough at it.

 

The overall point is that Beane has been very agressive at fixing these roster mistakes and that it may continue to be adressed early in the draft, hence Metcalf/Williams talk.

Edited April 22, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[SCBills]

50 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

The lack of polish on Metcalf is concerning, but I will say one thing, the idea of Metcalf "Mossing" the league with Allen's arm and Brown keeping things honest on the other side is very intriguing.  

 

The amount of speed in our WR's would be absurd.   Metcalf, Foster & Brown.  Allen's arm strength would certainly be put to good use.

[Solomon Grundy]

4 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Kyle Williams was drafted in 2006 and didn't become a Pro Bowl DT until 2010.  You want to take a DT like Khalen Saunders in the 3rd and wait 5 seasons for the lightbulb to turn on and they become a Pro Bowler?

Kyle was still VERY serviceable early on and yes I would take the above stated scenario.

[Dr. Who]

13 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I don't love either of these guys. I'd be pretty dissapointed with either. If Williams is not a sure thing at LT then I don't want him in the top ten. If that's where they are going to play him and feel like he is going to be elite, fine.  Metcalf is a reach there and a little too boom or bust for me. I wouldn't hate it, but I'd be a bit dissapointed. I think this entire draft process has been a massive smokescreen for who they really want, and that's probably TJ Hockenson or somebody we are thinking about like Byron Murphy. I still think it's Oliver or Sweat. 

Your evaluations are solid, so maybe I am wrong on this. My sense is Sweat on defensive side is the same boom/bust risk that Metcalf is on the offensive side. I'd rather take the shot with Metcalf personally.

Edited April 22, 2019 by Dr. Who

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 minutes ago, mannc said:

In fact, it didn’t net a second round pick even last year.  Arizona only gave up a third (plus a late round pick) to move from 15 to 10 to select their QB of the (very brief) future.

Yeah, they gave a 3rd and a 5th to move up from 15 to 10. That's around what one could reasonably expect again this year imo.

Edited April 22, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Kyle Williams was drafted in 2006 and didn't become a Pro Bowl DT until 2010.  You want to take a DT like Khalen Saunders in the 3rd and wait 5 seasons for the lightbulb to turn on and they become a Pro Bowler?

Ridiculous (like most everything you post.). Kyle was a force from the first week of his first training camp.  Couldn’t care less when his first pro bowl was.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, dlonce said:

The notion that anyone inside the Bills is going to allude to who they are drafting is absurd.

 

Any name dropping at this point is fodder. Also, there’s no way the Bills are using 9 to draft Metcalf.

 

How many guys had Edmunds going to the Bills last year? I’d say there’s a better chance the Bills trade up this year to get who they really desire.

Allen was linked to the Bills though by many.

Thursday can’t come quick enough.

No one has any idea, BUT I KNOW that they aren’t taking Dj Metcalf.  Lol

[Solomon Grundy]

53 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

The lack of polish on Metcalf is concerning, but I will say one thing, the idea of Metcalf "Mossing" the league with Allen's arm and Brown keeping things honest on the other side is very intriguing.  

Chuck, just think of the Vikings with Jake Reed, Cris Carter, Randy Moss and Randall Cunningham at QB.

Edited April 22, 2019 by the skycap

[Solomon Grundy]

48 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I love the recent idea of Haskins to bengals. Great fit with Zach Taylor if he runs Mcvay offense. Can sit for a year behind dalton. Plus he’s not in our division and i neither like nor dislike the Bengals and will be almost always be able to root for Dwayne. 

Stays in Ohio too, huh Yolo

[TOboy]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

His arms are like 1/8 inch shorter than Dillard and people aren’t questioning him at OT. I mean I just think if a guy can play he can play. 

 

I think Jax is going to take him though

 

I don't disagree at all, but that's been the dialogue around him. Early in the process he was in the top 10 of many mock's, but that's changed the last couple of months. 

 

Of course mock's really don't mean anything. Just seems to be the common perception that he'd likely drop to the teen's. 

[RocCityRoller]

32 minutes ago, Mark92 said:

I like Williams but I think Dilliard will end up a LT and Williams a G.  Williams would be a pro bowl caliber guard though.  

I agree that Dillard is the most natural LT in the draft

[Cornette's Commentary]

8 minutes ago, the skycap said:

Kyle was still VERY serviceable early on and yes I would take the above stated scenario.

Fine.  Have it your way.  Have fun watching Metcalf and Allen sit on the sidelines, as they watch the run defense get torched week in and week out.

[billsfan_34]

No one is hearing anything- it is all assumptions and best guesses. Every team keep their draft room/board tighter than Fort Knox. Not tryin to be a jerk, just saying don’t believe any of it. Sure, they may draft one of the 2 guys- but everything is a hunch right now.

[MrEpsYtown]

10 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Your evaluations are solid, so maybe I am wrong on this. My sense is Sweat on defensive side is the same boom/bust risk that Metcalf is on the offensive side. I'd rather take the shot with Metcalf personally.

 

If they take Metcalf or Sweat over Hockenson I think I will be dissapointed. I hope Oliver drops. That's the guy I want. But you are right that there is risk with both. If they take Metcalf over Sweat I won't be mad. I just think the Red flags with Metcalf are too much for the top ten. Lack of production, short area quickness, injuries, drops. When do receivers like that make it in the NFL? He strikes me as one of those guys who is going to flash tremendous ability, but is always going to have a soft tissue injuries. Pulled hamstring, tight groin etc etc. like a really big John Ross. 

Edited April 22, 2019 by MrEpsYtown

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Fine.  Have it your way.  Have fun watching Metcalf and Allen sit on the sidelines, as they watch the run defense get torched week in and week out.

You can find a good DT outside of the first round. They could always go for Tillery or Simmons in the second round.

[Cornette's Commentary]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

You can find a good DT outside of the first round. They could always go for Tillery or Simmons in the second round.

Um, Simmons has a torn ACL and might miss the entire season.

What has Jerry Tillery done of any note?  What great things did he do for Notre Dame this past season?

[Dr. Who]

7 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

If they take Metcalf or Sweat over Hockenson I think I will be dissapointed. I hope Oliver drops. That's the guy I want. But you are right that there is risk with both. If they take Metcalf over Sweat I won't be mad. I just think the Ed flags with Metcalf are too much for the top ten. Lack of production, short area quickness, injuries, drops. When do receivers like that make it in the NFL? He strikes me as one of those guys who is going to flash tremendous ability, but is always going to have a soft tissue injuries. Pulled hamstring, tight groin etc etc. 

Okay, thanks. I prefer Oliver as well, but it's starting to sound like there's not much chance he will be available at nine. I have a hard time valuing TE that early in the first. I guess I'm emotionally the reverse. I'd be happier with Metcalf, though I agree he's more of a risk. I'd be okay with Hockenson, however. 

Edited April 22, 2019 by Dr. Who

[YoloinOhio]

9 minutes ago, the skycap said:

Stays in Ohio too, huh Yolo

Yeah but I’m not a Bengals fan. I really like the fit though for him. From a number of angles 

Edited April 22, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Um, Simmons has a torn ACL and might miss the entire season.

What has Jerry Tillery done of any note?  What great things did he do for Notre Dame this past season?

I think Beane likes Tillery. I don't believe we are locked into needing to take interior DL in the first, though I'd take Oliver or Q. Williams ahead of any other prospects. Just don't think they'll be available.

[KD in CA]

1 hour ago, scribo said:

(Note: Not at all swiping at the messenger here.) No one is actually "hearing" anything. The Bills are not going to tell anyone who they are really targeting.

 

‘Hearing it’ from other talking heads who also have no information but need to constantly be saying something.

 

Media in the 21st century.

[Rocket94]

15 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Fine.  Have it your way.  Have fun watching Metcalf and Allen sit on the sidelines, as they watch the run defense get torched week in and week out.

It is so obvious. There is no way the Bills do not address this. This defense needs more than "serviceable" defensive picks. That is what is causing this in the first place.

Edited April 22, 2019 by Rocket94

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

37 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

The most explosive WR with a run defense that ranks toward the bottom of the league.  BRILLIANT!

 

Where did the passing game rank genius?

[Solomon Grundy]

3 minutes ago, the skycap said:

12 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Um, Simmons has a torn ACL and might miss the entire season.

What has Jerry Tillery done of any note?  What great things did he do for Notre Dame this past season?

https://www.djournal.com/sports/brown-simmons-competing-in-all-star-football-challenge/article_1f9d3810-cc3c-5728-b571-6235ee051dc8.html

[Troll Toll]

After Corey Davis and Mike Williams went in the top 10 a few years ago, I’m not sure why Metcalf WOULDN’T go top 10.

[YoloinOhio]

I have seen some people afraid of taking metcalf in the 1st because they have PTSD on Sammy. He was the consensus “nightmare pick” on one of the twitter polls. I get this, I do. But let’s break it down. And FTR I’m not sold on DK at 9. Or as this team’s 1st rounder in general.  But let’s say it happens. Will the Bills fan base collectively freak out? Here’s some reasons to breathe at the idea of it happening....

 

1. The Bills likely won’t be trading up like they did for Sammy. Less risk, less assets given up. 

2. Sammy was expected to come in and be the #1 WR right away. And he actually was, and did well at it despite the unsettled QB situation. DK has #1 potential,  but he’s not going to be given that load right away. 

3. The QB situation with Allen is still developing but it’s not what it was when Sammy was drafted. Marrone never seemed to want EJ or seem committed to his development. He also never seemed to want Sammy, who he was livid they traded up for. He and Whaley butted heads over both of these players imo and has different direction in mind. I don’t believe that’s the case here at all. I think both McD and Beane wanted Allen, and are committed to him succeeding. And if they take DK, it’s because they both feel he’s an integral piece of building their core team. 

3.sammy’s best skill set in college was screens and jet sweeps which the Bills almost never ran (with him). DK’s best skill set mirrors Josh Allen’s strengths as a QB. He may be raw, but as he develops he can still excel at what he does best especially if there are other receiving options taking the pressure off. 

Edited April 22, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

21 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Fine.  Have it your way.  Have fun watching Metcalf and Allen sit on the sidelines, as they watch the run defense get torched week in and week out.

 

You have fun watching any DT we add at this point sitting on the sidelines for about 40% of defensive snaps.

[YoloinOhio]

3 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

After Corey Davis and Mike Williams went in the top 10 a few years ago, I’m not sure why Metcalf WOULDN’T go top 10.

I think Mike Williams is a great comparison. Chargers looked at him as a future #1 due to some dominant traits who would be able to grow alongside KA.

[dubs]

Not loving these two options at 9.  Not at all. 

 

 

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I have seen some people afraid of taking metcalf in the 1st because they have PTSD on Sammy. He was the consensus “nightmare pick” on one of the twitter polls. I get this, I do. But let’s break it down. And FTR I’m not sold on DK at 9. Or as this team’s 1st rounder in general.  But let’s say it happens. Will the Bills fan base collectively freak out? Here’s some reasons to breathe at the idea of it happening....

 

1. The Bills likely won’t be trading up like they did for Sammy. Less risk, less assets given up. 

2. Sammy was expected to come in and be the #1 WR right away. And he actually was, and did well at it despite the unsettled QB situation. DK has #1 potential,  but he’s not going to be given that load right away. 

3. The QB situation with Allen is still developing but it’s not what it was when Sammy was drafted. Marrone never seemed to want EJ or seem committed to his development. He also never seemed to want Sammy, who he was livid they traded up for. He and Whaley butted heads over both of these players imo and has different direction in mind. I don’t believe that’s the case here at all. I think both McD and Beane wanted Allen, and are committed to him succeeding. And if they take DK, it’s because they both feel he’s an integral piece of building their core team. 

3.sammy’s best skill set in college was screens and jet sweeps which the Bills almost never ran (with him). DK’s best skill set mirrors Josh Allen’s strengths as a QB. He may be raw, but as he develops he can still excel at what he does best especially if there are other receiving options taking the pressure off. 

One more reason:  this is pretty mediocre WR class and Metcalf is the consensus top rated guy.  2014 was one of the best WR classes ever, so there was zero reason to trade up.

[Solomon Grundy]

Of all the pre draft visitors this is the only one I saw representing.

 

 

 

I'm just saying 

[sven233]

The biggest problem I have with Williams is that I think he will end up being a guard in the NFL.  I don't think he can hang with top DEs in this league and, to me, that is a bit concerning.   While I do think he has the potential to be a very good guard, I am not sure I want to invest the #9 overall pick on a guard.  As for Metcalf......I am not sure what he is going to be in the NFL.  He is the true definition of a boom or bust type of player.  If he works at his craft, has great coaching helping him, and works on his change of direction and route running, he has the potential to be dominant.  If he can't get those things figured out, he'll be just another guy.  There is no doubt that his size and speed is very intriguing, though.  Personally, I am not sure I take the risk there, but it would be hard to get upset if the Bills do.  There is a good starting point with him there with the tools he has. 

 

In the end, I want Oliver at 9 and Hakeem Butler with our second pick.

[NewEraBills]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

It’s a complete rebuild on the OL. Outside of Center, I believe every other starting job on the OL will be competed for in TC. May the best men at each spot win. If Jonah is drafted, he could play anywhere. 

 

I agree.  I think the OL only has 1 starter at this point and that is Morse.  I don't think Dawkins spot at LT is safe, especially after showing up looking like ButterBean

Edited April 22, 2019 by NewEraBills

[YoloinOhio]

3 minutes ago, the skycap said:

Of all the pre draft visitors this is the only one I saw representing.

 

 

 

I'm just saying 

There is just so much smoke around him to Bills. And he’s a very process type guy too, which makes it even more likely. 

 

Edited April 22, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[Reed83HOF]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

There is just so much smoke around him to Bills. And he’s a very process type guy too, which makes it even more likely. 

 

That is why I don't buy it, last year everything was very close to the vest and nothing seems to leak from OBD.

 

You cannot rule him out though as he does fit the "athleticism" and potential that we went for last year in RD1 (very high ceiling and an outstanding athletic profile). 

[Jay_Fixit]

20 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

After Corey Davis and Mike Williams went in the top 10 a few years ago, I’m not sure why Metcalf WOULDN’T go top 10.

Corey Davis and Mike Williams had more production in their final college seasons than Metcalf had in his Ole Miss career.

 

 

Edited April 22, 2019 by Jay_Fixit

[YoloinOhio]

5 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Corey Davis and Mike Williams had more production in their final college seasons than Metcalf had in his Ole Miss career.

 

 

I don’t care as much about production at WR in college as with some other positions tbh. So much depends on the QB, the system, and the coaching. And he was injured for a good part of it. Michael Thomas production in college was like a thumbnail sketch of his pro potential. I prefer to have a lot of production, but Zay Jones had a lot of production. It’s just one factor.

Edited April 22, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

5 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Corey Davis and Mike Williams had more production in their final college seasons than Metcalf had in his Ole Miss career.

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Corey Davis and Mike Williams had more production in their final college seasons than Metcalf had in his Ole Miss career.

 

 

 

Zay Jones had a lot of production in college. Hows that working out?

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

 

If it's between J Williams and DK Metcalf, Williams has all pro potential IMO. From what I've read, there are no real red flags on him. That's not true of Metcalf and there will be solid value at WR later. Besides, we don't have an AB, but we do have 4 solid WR's now so it's not a glaring need. Besides, I REALLy want to get our run game back into high gear.

You may want to edit your post. You forgot to mention how inaccurate Josh Allen is. There was a perfect opening where you mention really wanting to get the run game back in high gear because you know . . . 

[Mojo44]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I believe Metcalf is an option based on how Beane handled last year. He swung for the fences twice in the first. He took raw players with huge ceilings and pretty low floors. Metcalf is that player in this draft. I feel like Jonah is the exact opposite. He’s a safe player that will be good but never great.

 If J. Williams is a plug-in and play pro bowler for ten years as many say, then that’s a hell of a lot closer to great than good and that’s worth the pick!