We need to trade down...

[ProcessTruster]

8 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

To draft a QB ahead of Denver.  Likely partners could be Miami, Cinci, Washington and Tenn.

Steelers,  NE and LA will need to draft one soon also. If they really like someone in this class, they may also bite. 

 

nah, don't think so.  but hey , anything is possible

[billsredneck1]

6 hours ago, Pete said:

#9 1350

#25 720

#28 660

1350-1380 fair trade.  Make that deal if Raiders offer

no doubt.  i think the raiders will move carr this year....possibly for another 1st.  with their high 1st and our no.9, i could definitely see them making that deal.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Mark80 said:

 

I watched Lock numerous times this year.  He is, quite simply, not good.  I have a feeling he's not even going to be a first rounder.  I just can't see where all the hype on this kid is coming from.  Teams are going to see through the mirage when they start looking closely.

 

I have watched a lot of him the past two years and I wouldn't quite go as far as "not good" but I think he is a 3rd round prospect. He might be my QB2 in this class the way it is looking.... but this class is just not a good class. If Drew Lock goes in the first round I think it is a significant reach. If he goes in the top 10 that IS the equivalent of the Bills drafting EJ at #16. At the moment my QB rankings of the ones I have watched are (roughly):

 

Haskins (2nd round);

Lock (3rd round);

Grier (4th round);

Stidham (6th round);

Finley (6th/7th round);

 

Haven't see anything at all of Jones or Rypien so need to catch some of their film.

[ProcessTruster]

8 hours ago, RememberTheRockpile said:

How many rookies can you have on a roster before the inexperience is detrimental to the team? This is a question I have when I see people advocating trading down for more picks. 

more picks is always going to be good for a team that will always struggle in free agency.   the draft/locking guys up for 4-5 years is the key for a franchise in WNY

[Chuck Wagon]

As good as our defense is, we could badly use a stud 3 technique or edge.  That's where the value lies in the draft.  Stay at 9 and go BPA.

[The Now Moment]

8 hours ago, RememberTheRockpile said:

This is what the Bills get this year:

1st - 1
2nd - 1
3rd - 1
4th - 2
5th - 2
6th - 1
7th - 2

 

Likely the first 4 rounds picks all make the team. Assume one from the 5th and one more from the 6th and 7th. That is 7 rookies or 13% of the 53 man roster. Imagine trading down in the first for a 1st and a 3rd. Throw in a undrafted rookie and your up to 9 or 17% of your roster. At some point, and I don't know what that point is, the inexperience becomes a liability especially early in the season. IMO, they would be much better served if they traded down and got future draft picks. For example instead of a 1st and a 3rd a 1st and next years 3rd.

Except you can cover up inexperience with strong veteran play. You just have to have the right kind of veterans in the building. Jumps from our other younger players that have seen action is also what they are relying on. Allen, Edmunds...all of those guys you expect to take a step forward. More assets now is a good thing, it quickens the process. You just have to be a patient fan in terms of development and not want them out the door after a handful of games. More talent under the rookie cap please. It builds up a foundation of inexpensive talent. As we add more talent to the team, rookies will play less right out of the gate allowing them to develop behind the scenes somewhat. We have to reach that point first where we have that much talent, we aren’t there yet. Take the pick this year. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

10 hours ago, zevo said:

You can want all you want...but it takes two to tango....if it’s a weak draft at the top why would a team give up picks to move up.....

 

Yep - only way it works is if a QB falls or something.

[The Now Moment]

5 hours ago, BakersBills said:

 

Those two picks aren’t enough, look at last years trades.

 

you can throw that chart out.

 

9 for 25, 27, and there 2nd and a 3rd in 2020 is more like it.

 

i think best scenario you trade down to the teens and pick up a late first or 2 and a 3.

 

And then you take best pass rusher or wr on the board imo. 

The value of the pick changes every year. It depends on the talent available, what they are trading up for and a few other factors. I don’t think you’d get that type of trade this year with few QB prospects and the talent level being fairly even from where we are in the first round to where Oakland is picking later. 

 

Youd still get a sizable haul but it depends on what teams are jumping up for. Last year’s trades had high values because of the high valued QB prospects that teams were willing to pay more for. I don’t see those prospects in this class. There are plenty of other QBs that could be available for the teams looking for a QB to hold the fort for a year instead of giving away an arm and a leg for an ok prospect. 

 

That being said, if a team falls in love with a guy and he slips down past the WB needy teams ahead of us, we could be in business. 

[BillsFan1988]

There's 2 teams i think a trade can possibly make sense with

 

#1 Raiders they have  2 1sts 25, 27, 2nd 35 

 

The Raiders will probably want one of the top pass rushers on the board or a LB like Devin White. They can give us 25, 27 & 35 for our first at 9th overall & our 3rd 74th.

 

This would give us 4pks in top 40

#25- DT Jeffery Simmons

#27- TE Noah Fant

#35- WR Marquise Brown

#40 - WR Hakeem Butler

 

With this trade we load up first off Jeffery Simmons is a beast and will fill in at the 3tech admirably. With next 3 pks we get an explosive pair of Wrs Brown can line up everywhere an is an absoulte threat Hakeem Butler is an outside Wr with size 6'6 218lbs and speed . Noah Fant will be a total mismatch for CBs and LBs . I would love this trade and it can set us up for the future. Obviously we would have to fix our oline in free agency for this to work.

 

The 2nd team is the Colts they have 22, 34, 58 it would take at least there 22, 34 and a 1st next yr to get a trade with them done. The Colts will possibly entertain trading up for Oliver or a pass rusher in this scenario. 

[BuffaloBillies]

I like trade down. 

Ideal would be to trade down and somehow still get Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss. at new 1st rd spot (and still have another 1st rd pick left).

[thebandit27]

The Bills have enough picks; what they need is to draft talented players at key positions.

 

Also, I strongly disagree that this is a weak draft at the top; much of the defensive talent looks really solid.  It does happen, however, to not be top-loaded with offensive skill position talent, but we shouldn't be drafting for need anyway.

Edited January 4, 2019 by thebandit27

[hemma]

There is a site that tracks where NFL scouts have been visiting  and games watched.

Anybody have a link for that site/blog?

[TigerJ]

Here's recent (yesterday) mock for you.  Buffalo trades down with Miami, (trade within division is unlikely) and picks up a third this year and a fifth in 2020.  At 13, they draft Jonah Williams.  https://nflmocks.com/2019/01/03/2019-nfl-mock-draft-miami-uses-rival-to-end-ryan-tannehill-era/9/

[BuffaloBillies]

2 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

Here's recent (yesterday) mock for you.  Buffalo trades down with Miami, (trade within division is unlikely) and picks up a third this year and a fifth in 2020.  At 13, they draft Jonah Williams.  https://nflmocks.com/2019/01/03/2019-nfl-mock-draft-miami-uses-rival-to-end-ryan-tannehill-era/9/

 

Would work for me, considering I would take Jonah at #9!

Still get the guy at #13 and pick up a 3rd this year and a 5th next year? Gravy.

 

[Mark Vader]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We don't know what the Raiders picks will be. Depends on how the playoffs go.

Yes, but they will be in the mid-to lower 20's.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Mark Vader said:

Yes, but they will be in the mid-to lower 20's.

 

Yep. I think if they are the projected picks as of regular season record then there is no chance the Bills go that far back. If we are talking early 20s I could maybe see it.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Mark Vader said:

Yes, but they will be in the mid-to lower 20's.

 

I don't think the Raiders traded away their best players for picks just so that they can trade those picks away to move up in the draft...but then again, Gruden is a loose cannon 

[Mark Vader]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I don't think the Raiders traded away their best players for picks just so that they can trade those picks away to move up in the draft...but then again, Gruden is a loose cannon 

Exactly.

 

I could easily see Gruden not being satisfied with having two very late picks in the first round and wanting to make a splash by moving up into the top 10 again.

 

Also, if the Bills choose to stay where they are at and get the player they want at 9, I'm fine with that.

[NewEra]

7 hours ago, Mark80 said:

 

I watched Lock numerous times this year.  He is, quite simply, not good.  I have a feeling he's not even going to be a first rounder.  I just can't see where all the hype on this kid is coming from.  Teams are going to see through the mirage when they start looking closely.

Agreed.  Hackenberg 2.0+ model?

[VW82]

It’s year three of the rebuild. Anyone expecting us to trade down is going to be sorely disappointed IMO. McBeane are safe for now but they know they have only so much time to turn things around. We’re one more stud play maker on the defensive line away from having a truly elite unit, and given McD’s personality and background I’d be shocked if he passed up that opportunity unless he was fairly certain he could get his guy a few picks later. 

 

If anything, I expect they’ll be more inclined to trade up in the second or third rounds to get guys they think will fit the culture on offense. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

14 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

To draft a QB ahead of Denver.  Likely partners could be Miami, Cinci, Washington and Tenn.

Steelers,  NE and LA will need to draft one soon also. If they really like someone in this class, they may also bite. 

 

I think the Bucs, Giants and Jax all have a high % of drafting QB and they are all ahead of us and one will take Dwayne Haskins.

 

.

[Green Lightning]

13 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Herbert staying in school hurt our chances at that. It’s essentially Haskins and Lock with that Duke kid as a maybe. 

I just don't see a flurry of activity to climb up to get those guys. I think they'll fall lower in the 1st in into the 2nd.

[buffaloboyinATL]

I generally agree with the trade down concept, but if they "fall in love" with a player during the process and believe he could be a difference maker; All pro type of player and he is there at 9, I'd be happy they took him.

[LABILLBACKER]

17 hours ago, zevo said:

You can want all you want...but it takes two to tango....if it’s a weak draft at the top why would a team give up picks to move up.....

You're going to have to find someone desperate for a qb. 

[ctk232]

On 1/4/2019 at 10:01 AM, RoyBatty is alive said:

I think the Bucs, Giants and Jax all have a high % of drafting QB and they are all ahead of us and one will take Dwayne Haskins.

I'd take the Bucs off that list - they're all but announcing Bruce Arians at HC who has stated he likes Winston. Could see Jax taking Haskins or trading for a QB, but the Giants problem wasn't so much Eli as it was their OL though they will need a replacement soon. Not sure Haskins would go top 10, or any QB for that matter, given the talent grade levels, and the reach it would be to go QB in the top 10 of this draft pool. 

Edited January 7, 2019 by ctk232

[Malazan]

Is this the first of the annual trade down threads?

[nucci]

On 1/3/2019 at 10:38 PM, bills6969 said:

This is a pretty weak draft a the top.  Bosa is good but he's a lock for #1.  Really think we should trade down and add an additional 2nd or 3rd.  Lots of talent (Simmons, Wilkins, Metcalf, Cajuste, Burns) will be available at the end of the 1st round any way.

I thought we were supposed to lose this year to get high picks....now you want to trade down?

[oldmanfan]

Need to?  No.  But if given the right opportunity not a bad idea.

[CEN-CAL17]

Only team I’d trade down with would be for Oakland’s late two 1st round picks.

[RoyBatty is alive]

23 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

I'd take the Bucs off that list - they're all but announcing Bruce Arians at HC who has stated he likes Winston. Could see Jax taking Haskins or trading for a QB, but the Giants problem wasn't so much Eli as it was their OL though they will need a replacement soon. Not sure Haskins would go top 10, or any QB for that matter, given the talent grade levels, and the reach it would be to go QB in the top 10 of this draft pool. 

I think Haskins goes top 10, if anything what the last few years has taught me is teams will "reach" for QBs.  

[ctk232]

2 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I think Haskins goes top 10, if anything what the last few years has taught me is teams will "reach" for QBs.  

Not saying it won't happen, as there is most definitely always "that team." But the chances of it being in the top 10 are still much lower than most other years with QB prospects, or a genuine QB class.

 

It's funny to think about, but to me so much emphasis is put on the QB position in the league now that it almost creates a standard "value" of the position in the draft regardless of the fluctuations in year to year talent. Many equate the position of QB to be a top 10 pick regardless of the talent available, and whether that talent is truly top 10 or even round 1 talent. Regardless of whether he's the best QB in the class this year - is he worth a top 10 pick given the other talent and positional depth on the board? Is he worth a top 10 pick, period? None of it answerable, but you have to recognize how much is played/hyped up simply by context, beyond his demonstrated performance.

 

If I had to guess at this point, I'd say he doesn't get picked up early enough to be top 10, but most likely goes in the first round for those reasons. I should also note that this isn't a commentary on how I feel Haskins will pan out in the NFL, just more so how he currently stacks up against other current draft talent in the context of "value."

[ChattanoogaBills]

On 1/4/2019 at 7:25 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I have watched a lot of him the past two years and I wouldn't quite go as far as "not good" but I think he is a 3rd round prospect. He might be my QB2 in this class the way it is looking.... but this class is just not a good class. If Drew Lock goes in the first round I think it is a significant reach. If he goes in the top 10 that IS the equivalent of the Bills drafting EJ at #16. At the moment my QB rankings of the ones I have watched are (roughly):

 

Haskins (2nd round);

Lock (3rd round);

Grier (4th round);

Stidham (6th round);

Finley (6th/7th round);

 

Haven't see anything at all of Jones or Rypien so need to catch some of their film.

I think clayton thornson northwestern played his way to the top ten in the draft. That being said i would trade down and select baylor wr denzel mims he is a athletic freak and imo could be the wr from the draft in a few years. Reminds me of eric moulds with more speed.

This draft is deep on wr talent in my opinion but i wouldn't want marquise brown after how fans felt about m. Goodwin staying injured for buffalo so often.

[RoyBatty is alive]

40 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

Not saying it won't happen, as there is most definitely always "that team." But the chances of it being in the top 10 are still much lower than most other years with QB prospects, or a genuine QB class.

 

It's funny to think about, but to me so much emphasis is put on the QB position in the league now that it almost creates a standard "value" of the position in the draft regardless of the fluctuations in year to year talent. Many equate the position of QB to be a top 10 pick regardless of the talent available, and whether that talent is truly top 10 or even round 1 talent. Regardless of whether he's the best QB in the class this year - is he worth a top 10 pick given the other talent and positional depth on the board? Is he worth a top 10 pick, period? None of it answerable, but you have to recognize how much is played/hyped up simply by context, beyond his demonstrated performance.

 

If I had to guess at this point, I'd say he doesn't get picked up early enough to be top 10, but most likely goes in the first round for those reasons. I should also note that this isn't a commentary on how I feel Haskins will pan out in the NFL, just more so how he currently stacks up against other current draft talent in the context of "value."

  Very reasonable.

 

Look at it another way, the QB position is so damn important and if you dont have your franchise QB you roll the dice, you take a "3rd rd value" in the first, you never know when you are going to land the next Russel Wilson or 6th in Tom Brady.  

[peterpan]

On 1/3/2019 at 10:45 PM, zevo said:

You can want all you want...but it takes two to tango....if it’s a weak draft at the top why would a team give up picks to move up.....

I recall some former gm admitting in an interview, that there's basically multiple offers on each and every pick in the first two/three rounds.  Where a team likes the compensation or not, and if there's a player they really like, determine if a trade is made.

 

So basically yea we'd be able to trade back. It may be a crappy offer though, and crappy offer or good offer depends on who you're asking. 

[Simon Says]

On 1/3/2019 at 11:28 PM, RememberTheRockpile said:

This is what the Bills get this year:

1st - 1
2nd - 1
3rd - 1
4th - 2
5th - 2
6th - 1
7th - 2

 

Likely the first 4 rounds picks all make the team. Assume one from the 5th and one more from the 6th and 7th. That is 7 rookies or 13% of the 53 man roster. Imagine trading down in the first for a 1st and a 3rd. Throw in a undrafted rookie and your up to 9 or 17% of your roster. At some point, and I don't know what that point is, the inexperience becomes a liability especially early in the season. IMO, they would be much better served if they traded down and got future draft picks. For example instead of a 1st and a 3rd a 1st and next years 3rd.

Bills had a lot of 1st and 2nd year players on the roster. With all that cap money available, I dont see the need to stockpile draft choices just to fill out the roster. Beane will fill needs in FA and bring in talented rookies. i dont think he cares whether he gets a DT, OT or Edge,etc. at 9,a s long as ti is a "good value" pick, BPA

[LABILLBACKER]

On 1/3/2019 at 7:55 PM, Ethan in Portland said:

Agree with the OP and Zevo.  The 3rd guy in this draft probably is as good as the 20th.  QB class is absolute garbage.  Sadly it will be near impossible to find a trade down partner.

Exactly,  we're not finding a trade down partner.  The qb position is usually the only one worthy of someone willing and the qb class is garbage. We'll just have to wait at 9 for bpa....

[billsredneck1]

On 1/4/2019 at 1:01 PM, RoyBatty is alive said:

I think the Bucs, Giants and Jax all have a high % of drafting QB and they are all ahead of us and one will take Dwayne Haskins.

 

.

perhaps but...flacco, foles or wentz, winston , teddy , bradford and possibly carr are all gonna be in play first.

[Luka]

I was thinking the opposite. With the huge amount of cap space, I'd like to see a trade up if they target someone they really like that'll be off the board before we pick in the 2nd round. BPA at 9 is a comfortable position to be in and with guys like Fant and Metcalf probably hovering around a top 10 pick, no sense in passing that up.