13 dropped balls all season?????

[downunderbill]

What I'm getting from this thread is that as long as Clay doesn't have to run too fast or extend his arms at all, he is exempt from catching a ball most decent high school players could make.

 

[Ol Dirty B]

3 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’m not saying it’s ESPN, just that they have the same level of reliability. If we have 13 drops this season, I am the Easter Bunny. (And since we’ve never met in person....there’s a decision to make!) 

 

Meh... it seems more like you don't like what the stats are so then you seem them not reliable.

42 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I guess I get to raise my hand for the dunce cap?  I don't think it was well expressed, but if I understand the basic premise, the OP is saying that teams with great QB or even good QB have WR who make the QB look better, by routinely hauling in those high-degree-of-difficulty "catch that can't be made" catches. 

 

I mean, it's not a state secret that Aaron Rodgers completion % fell off 5 percentage points and his ypg dropped about 10% between 2014 and 2015 when he lost Jordy Nelson, showing an exceptional WR makes a difference even for a great QB.

We can't expect to have a roster full of ODB's but I would like to see one, and the rest better than they are now - hauling in say half of those "makeable but tough" throws.

 

Allen also needs to be better than he is now.

 

 

We've written 40,000 books about it?

 

Routinely making catches that can't be made is one of the worst sentences I've ever read. It makes absolutely no sense. 

 

What happened to Jordy after he left GB? You really think Jordy made Rodgers?

[jlgarsh]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

When they say we have had 13 drops, they lost ALL credibility. That’s just stupid stuff there. My Golden Retriever is more reliable. 

 

He probably has a better catch radius than KB too

[jr1]

[Jay_Fixit]

Nope.

[Doc Brown]

I know I screamed catch the effing ball more than 13 times.  Do they have a stat of % of 50/50 balls caught?

[Boatdrinks]

So, thirteen dropped passes by Bills WRs this season to date? I think we may be seeing the inherent bias of the one compiling these “stats”. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Oh wow, this makes me feel so much better about our WR’s! Cross that off the list of needs for Beane to jump on this off-season! ???‍♂️ (just think, someone got paid to produce this drivel...)

[Boatdrinks]

6 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Oh wow, this makes me feel so much better about our WR’s! Cross that off the list of needs for Beane to jump on this off-season! ???‍♂️ (just think, someone got paid to produce this drivel...)

Lol exactly. Someone’s idea of what constitutes a “ drop” is still only part of the equation. When a WR makes a somewhat more difficult catch on a ball that is slightly ( or more) off, it is simply thrown into the stat basket of a “ catch”. I have no data to back it up, but by my own eye it seems the Bills WR corps makes fewer of those types of catches than WRs on other teams do. 

[Thurman#1]

There have been some nice catches.

 

DiMarco's catch against San Diego with 13:48 left in the third quarter was a really nice catch. He's all alone running straight, completely uncovered and Allen put the ball over the wrong shoulder. DiMarco spun, jumped and fully extended but didn't get enough of his hands on the ball to control it but caught the loose ball anyway as he fell. A really nice catch. The replay showed how tough it was.

 

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think Croom's catch at the end of the Lions game is the only contested catch of the year. I would remember if there was another one. Foster has made some nice adjustments on the ball downfield, but Croom is the only player so far this year that actually won a catch against a defender in tight coverage. Meanwhile we're debating whether a pass that hit a wide open tight end in the hands was accurate enough. The standards here are crazy.

 

Your memory's letting you down a bit, Happy.

 

In the Charger's game the TD to Benjamin at the end was very contested, with one guy reaching for the ball and another drilling Benjamin as he brings the ball in.

 

Ah, I'd forgotten about the penalty on this one. 3rd quarter in Houston at 5:54, Benjamin highpoints a ball with a guy wrapped around him for a 44 yard gain, but there was an illegal formation penalty which nullified the gain.

 

Zay Jones against the Pats, 4th quarter 8:31, the Pats #1, Jones, arrives as the catch is being made and tries to rip it out unsuccessfully.

 

I'm sure there were more.

 

Not that I'm arguing that the Bills receivers are good enough. But they're not often getting put into situations where the plays are contested. Benjamin was, but this year for whatever reason he wasn't hanging on to the ball the few times it was contested. It was frustrating as hell to see that.

Edited December 19, 2018 by Thurman#1

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, BillsSB2020 said:

We dissect this play around here like the freaking JFK assassination. The life of a Bills fan!

Well the failed first down did end up in Allen fumbling away the possession. 

2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

At that speed it looks like Allen knocked him over with the ball.

That's normal speed so your theory holds water. 

[Richard Noggin]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

I am always unsure if people who make this argument know how dumb they sound. So I guess now I’ll ask? 

 

What the Bills need is receivers to make catches they wouldn’t be expected to make? And if they had receivers make catches they weren’t expected to make, then our QB would be better? 

 

Or maybe, just say...Josh Allen really puts his receivers in tough positions. We can’t expect to have a roster for of ODB’s, but they have to be better than they are now...

 

 

 

No, what Bills fans want are receivers who make catches OTHER teams' fans expect them to make. Bills fans don't remember what that looks like, outside of some sporadic Sammy Watkins highlights (against KC, and that one-handed stab-and-gather in Detroit on the game-winning drive). 

 

I actually jump up when one of our receivers snatches the ball with two hands, away from his body. 

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

The pass to Clay was catchable, but it was, most definitely, not perfect...in fact, in real time, it appeared low and away...but with a little more effort, the catch could have been made.

 

So in other words, a drop.  Clay dropped it.  

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

5 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

KB alone had to have 13 drops 

In a half...numerous halves.

 

4 hours ago, Augie said:

 

When they say we have had 13 drops, they lost ALL credibility. That’s just stupid stuff there. My Golden Retriever is more reliable. 

Only if the ball’s underinflated.

[WhyteDwarf]

7 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

I mean, comparatively we can get an idea to other teams. Assuming the standard for a catchable ball remains the same, the stat has “some value” outside of frequency. 

 

It looks like we are right around average. 

 

Yep, which is why 50% completion is so concerning, it's not all dropped passes.

[JaCrispy]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So in other words, a drop.  Clay dropped it.  

If your definition of a drop is hitting the receiver in the hand, then yes...but I could also understand arguments the other way as well....and even if you decide to classify it as a drop, it still doesn’t change the fact that Allen’s throw was not as accurate as it could have been with a clean pocket and a wide open receiver...that should have been a 50 yard catch and run...and it’s throws like that that keep Allen hovering around 50% completions....if he can fix that in the offseason, sky is the limit with this kid.?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

If your definition of a drop is hitting the receiver in the hand, then yes...but I could also understand arguments the other way as well....and even if you decide to classify it as a drop, it still doesn’t change the fact that Allen’s throw was not as accurate as it could have been with a clean pocket and a wide open receiver...that should have been a 50 yard catch and run...and it’s throws like that that keep Allen hovering around 50% completions....if he can fix that in the offseason, sky is the limit with this kid.?

 

Do you ever tire of being wrong? You’re dead wrong on that pass. Any pass that hits a receiver in his hands is by definition accurate. Period, there’s nothing to debate here.

[JaCrispy]

28 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Do you ever tire of being wrong? You’re dead wrong on that pass. Any pass that hits a receiver in his hands is by definition accurate. Period, there’s nothing to debate here.

Sorry, but there is a difference between putting the ball on the receiver and area code accuracy...just because it touches a receiver does not make a pass accurate...otherwise EJ Manuel would have been one of the most accurate passers in NFL history. ?

 

And btw Joe, the graphic from behind the QB actually proves my point of the pass being low and away...so to answer your question, no- I don’t tire of being wrong...because I was right. ?

Edited December 19, 2018 by JaCrispy

[Billsfan1972]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I guess I get to raise my hand for the dunce cap?  I don't think it was well expressed, but if I understand the basic premise, the OP is saying that teams with great QB or even good QB have WR who make the QB look better, by routinely hauling in those high-degree-of-difficulty "catch that can't be made" catches. 

 

I mean, it's not a state secret that Aaron Rodgers completion % fell off 5 percentage points and his ypg dropped about 10% between 2014 and 2015 when he lost Jordy Nelson, showing an exceptional WR makes a difference even for a great QB.

We can't expect to have a roster full of ODB's but I would like to see one, and the rest better than they are now - hauling in say half of those "makeable but tough" throws.

 

Allen also needs to be better than he is now.

 

 

We've written 40,000 books about it?

Not at all what I was saying......  I just want to see receivers catch 50/50 balls, which is as per the name a catch that is made 50% of the time.  I want to see adjustments made on long balls (i.e. Clay vs. Miami), balls that hit them in their hands caught and less bobbles.

 

The last 3 weeks there has been terrible receiver play.

 

As per the top 100 catches....  Doubt they make the top 250.  The point there was that there hasn't been a "wow what a catch" moment all year.  

     

[oldmanfan]

33 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Sorry, but there is a difference between putting the ball on the receiver and area code accuracy...just because it touches a receiver does not make a pass accurate...otherwise EJ Manuel would have been one of the most accurate passers in NFL history. ?

 

And btw Joe, the graphic from behind the QB actually proves my point of the pass being low and away...so to answer your question, no- I don’t tire of being wrong...because I was right. ?

There is a difference between accuracy and precision.  You like so many confuse the two.

[Capco]

11 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

There is a difference between accuracy and precision.  You like so many confuse the two.

 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Capco said:

 

Yep, I've posted this before.  Allen is in the low precision/high accuracy picture on the bottom right.  The vast majority of his throws are accurate; they give his receiver the chance to make the catch.  But he could be more precise on his throws.

 

Obviously one wants both high precision and high accuracy.  That hopefully comes with time.

[Capco]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Yep, I've posted this before.  Allen is in the low precision/high accuracy picture on the bottom right.  The vast majority of his throws are accurate; they give his receiver the chance to make the catch.  But he could be more precise on his throws.

 

Obviously one wants both high precision and high accuracy.  That hopefully comes with time.

 

My thoughts exactly on where Allen fits on that spectrum.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think it was an easy catch.  Clay would have had to turn up the burners.  OTOH, getting open is what he's paid to do, and it looks to me as though if Allen threw it to where Clay actually was, it would have gone to a guy with a white n green jersey.

 

7 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Exactly what I thought...low and away and far from a perfect throw... but with a little more effort on Clay’s part, the catch could have been made...great screen shot here.

 

And if Josh throws it any more to the right its a deflected pass or an INT as the defender is right there. 

 

Edited December 19, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

9 hours ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

Bring back Stickum!

They already have it in those tacky gloves that they wear. Try on a pair and play catch with someone, you will be amazed every time a WR drops a ball that hits them in the hands.

[JaCrispy]

2 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

 

And if Josh throws it any more to the right its an deflected pass or an INT as the defender is right there. 

 

Agreed...that’s where a little more touch on the pass makes all the difference 

Edited December 19, 2018 by JaCrispy

[Nuncha]

It probably would be 3 drops if Benjamin wasn't here.

[Hebert19]

Their definition of drop is different than mine.  Zay isnt in top 50.  Whatever. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

That hit Clay tight in the hands.  It was as close to a "perfect" pass as you're going to get with that throw or am I missing something?  It hit him in his hands, waist high and slightly in front of him.  If he catches that ball he doesn't break stride.  Maybe I'm just seeing this through my Josh Allen colored glasses but those of you who thought the ball could be better placed I would be curious to know how? 

 

sounds to me like this stat company bases it only on balls thrown right to the receiver.  If the receiver has to make maybe more than 1/2 step to 1 step adjustment, then it's not counted as a drop.  The debate as to whether Clay should have caught this pass or not has nothing to do with the way the stats are calculated.

 

You may not agree but it appears that's how they figure it.

[JaCrispy]

52 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

There is a difference between accuracy and precision.  You like so many confuse the two.

That is fine, as my original point still holds true, that it wasn’t a perfect pass as some have claimed.

Edited December 19, 2018 by JaCrispy

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, JaCrispy said:

That is fine as my original point still holds that it wasn’t a perfect pass as some have claimed.

Accurate and fairly precise.  That is a catch that is made 90% of the time, if not more,  by NFL receivers.

[cd1]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Jets at Bills, 6:06 left in 1Q, 2&6 correct?

 

I don't think it was an easy catch.  Clay would have had to turn up the burners.  OTOH, getting open is what he's paid to do, and it looks to me as though if Allen threw it to where Clay actually was, it would have gone to a guy with a white n green jersey.

Here's a set of screen shots from the coach's film just after Allen throws.  Ball looks to me as though it's thrown about 2-3 feet wide of what would make an easy catch for Clay.  You can see Clay recognize this and lunge for it unsuccessfully.  A TE worth his high salary makes that catch, but it's not a picture under the word "drop".

You can see by these takes that CLAY misjudged the balls velocity.

 

Perhaps THIS is what happens when old players don't have to practice!

 

JMO

[JaCrispy]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Accurate and fairly precise.  That is a catch that is made 90% of the time, if not more,  by NFL receivers.

I’m just gonna agree to disagree on that...and the part about 90% of other receivers making the catch is purely speculation imo.

Edited December 19, 2018 by JaCrispy

[oldmanfan]

Just now, JaCrispy said:

I’m gonna agree to disagree on that...and the part about 90% of other receivers making the catch is purely speculation imo.

Of course it's speculation.  That's what we do here.  

 

I ascribe to what my pee wee coach told me in 1963.  You get yours hands on it, you should catch it.  When A QB hits you in the hands there isn't much more he can do.  The pass could have been maybe 6-12 inches more to the right.  That's very accurate and pretty precise.

[JESSEFEFFER]

Clay probably could not track that ball as it was a bullet on a low trajectory and he has just cleared the defender and the ball is almost there.  Face it, having an arm like that means that Josh can beat the defense anywhere on the field but also means his intended targets get less time to track and adjust to the ball and will have more difficulty actually catching it.  Learning when it's not necessary to drill the ball to the target and instead it's better to lead the receiver into an open area with a touch pass that is easy to track and lands softly is a lesson that experience will teach.  I thought our receiving corps looked much better when catching Matt Barkley's soft tosses, for instance.

 

Also, we as fans tend to ignore a play the DB makes on the ball.  If a DB gets a pbu on a play, we shouldn't view it as a "drop."  Since we want the ball caught regardless of the circumstances, it tends to get recorded in our collective memories as another "*^%&$^%# dropped ball instead of "credit to the defender."

[Billsfan1972]

It was in his hands in stride.  Seeing the screen captions I understand some of the comments, but it was not a hard catch by any means and thrown with no one around him.

 

BTW Allen threw a nice touch pass to Foster over the middle, again wide open, that was bobbled and challenged by Detroit.  Another example of whether hard or a soft ball, any pass to a Bills receiver is an adventure.  

[ddaryl]

 

Yeah we have some wr issues but its not all on them either. Zay has improved from his rookie year to this year. Good chance he will improve again going into next year after playing with Allen for a full year, and next year Allen will get most reps in camp which will help. I fail to see why anyone is hating on Zay. 

 

Josh does need to make adjustments....  He still throws with too much velocity to often. He is getting better with accuracy but he is not quite there.

 

Too funny how sensitive people get, and only a few have there heads on straight here 

 

[Marv's Neighbor]

1 hour ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

They already have it in those tacky gloves that they wear. Try on a pair and play catch with someone, you will be amazed every time a WR drops a ball that hits them in the hands.

Well, we need it on their numbers too.

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

I am always unsure if people who make this argument know how dumb they sound. So I guess now I’ll ask? 

 

What the Bills need is receivers to make catches they wouldn’t be expected to make? And if they had receivers make catches they weren’t expected to make, then our QB would be better? 

 

Or maybe, just say...Josh Allen really puts his receivers in tough positions. We can’t expect to have a roster for of ODB’s, but they have to be better than they are now...

 

 

I'm glad someone said this. Great catches are great because most receivers don't make them.  Most good receivers miss tough balls more often than they catch them.  

 

It makes no sense to call everything a receiver touches and doesn't  catch a drop.  

 

Take the throw over the middle that Clay didn't catch discussed early in this thread. You have to consider who the receiver is.  That is a ball I expect Zay to catch, but not necessarily Clay.  He isn't very athletic, and running at full speed across the field and going down for the ball is a tough play for him.  

 

The truth is that Clay just isn't an good modern tight end.  He's more blocker and less receiver than today's game demands. He fit the game 10 years ago better. 

 

Allen knows that throws to Clay have to be better than throws to some other guys.  

 

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm glad someone said this. Great catches are great because most receivers don't make them.  Most good receivers miss tough balls more often than they catch them.  

 

It makes no sense to call everything a receiver touches and doesn't  catch a drop.  

 

Take the throw over the middle that Clay didn't catch discussed early in this thread. You have to consider who the receiver is.  That is a ball I expect Zay to catch, but not necessarily Clay.  He isn't very athletic, and running at full speed across the field and going down for the ball is a tough play for him.  

 

The truth is that Clay just isn't an good modern tight end.  He's more blocker and less receiver than today's game demands. He fit the game 10 years ago better. 

 

Allen knows that throws to Clay have to be better than throws to some other guys.  

 

 

I'm sorry but the ball was right at waist level and the guy gets both hands on it.  If you're going to say based on that throw that Allen needs to be more accurate (and again people confuse accuracy with precision - that was an accurate throw) then there isn't a QB in the league that can be described as accurate (or more accurately- precise).  Rather than say Allen has to adjust to poor receivers, maybe the solution is to have a TE that can make routine catches.