Mahomes perspective - success not that easy to predict

[dtgolder]

Lots of folks lamenting the fact that the Bills passed on Mahomes...but looking back at the 2017 draft it sure seems the Bills weren't the only ones...

 

Recap: Mahomes was drafted 10th--looking at the players taken before him, we see:

 

• Myles Garrett (Cleveland)
• Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago)
• Solomon Thomas (San Francisco)
• Leonard Fournette (Jacksonville)
• Corey Davis (Tennessee)
• Jamal Adams (Jets)
• Mike Williams (Chargers)
• Christian McCaffrey (Carolina)
• John Ross (Bengals)

 

Yes, certainly the Bills may have some "selection remorse" now for not taking Mahomes--but I'd argue that *any* of these teams would now gladly trade their pick for Mahomes. Sure there are some good players on the above list, but I'd bet that each and every one of them would be traded straight-up for Mahomes at this point...(one might even add the Rams to this list as they traded the fifth pick to the Titans...)

 

And remember as well that there were a lot of questions about Mahomes at the time--some folks felt he was a great talent, while others were sure he'd be a bust...

 

Just proves (yet again) that it's simply not that easy to predict success in the NFL, and particularly at the QB position. 

 

[Perry Turtle]

It's telling that the majority of teams who passed on Mahomes have defensive-minded coaches or have a 'settled' QB situation (Chargers, Titans, Bengals).

 

Andy Reid, one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, was able to see the potential in Mahomes and traded up to make him the 10th pick.  

 

The Bears took Trubisky under Johnn Fox, a defensive-minded coach , but it's apparent that Mahomes is the better QB.

 

Maybe the key to drafting a great QB is to have a more offensive-minded guy make the selection.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

It's telling that the majority of teams who passed on Mahomes have defensive-minded coaches or have a 'settled' QB situation (Chargers, Titans, Bengals).

 

Andy Reid, one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, was able to see the potential in Mahomes and traded up to make him the 10th pick.  

 

The Bears took Trubisky under Johnn Fox, a defensive-minded coach , but it's apparent that Mahomes is the better QB.

 

Maybe the key to drafting a great QB is to have a more offensive-minded guy make the selection.

 

 

Right now, still too early to tell. Wentz looked way better than Goff initially. Different story this year 

[yungmack]

Four of the nine teams you cite were set at QB (Tenn, SD, Cin, Car.), three are historically inept at evaluating QBs (Chi, Jets, Cleve) and one is like the Bills, 20 years behind the reality of today's NFL so foolishly overvalued the RB position (Jax). As for SF, who knows?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, Perry Turtle said:

It's telling that the majority of teams who passed on Mahomes have defensive-minded coaches or have a 'settled' QB situation (Chargers, Titans, Bengals).

 

Andy Reid, one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, was able to see the potential in Mahomes and traded up to make him the 10th pick.  

 

The Bears took Trubisky under Johnn Fox, a defensive-minded coach , but it's apparent that Mahomes is the better QB.

 

Maybe the key to drafting a great QB is to have a more offensive-minded guy make the selection.

 

 

 

If Andy Reid is so smart, how come in all his years in Philly he passed on guys like Rodgers, Brady, Big Ben, and Brees just to name a few off the top of my head?

 

This goes back to the OP's point, not nearly as easy to predict as some want to think in hind sight.  And lets give Mahomes more than half a season before we start sculpting his HOF bust here too.

[HappyDays]

I didn't want Mahomes anymore than I wanted Allen. Historically, strong armed QBs with poor footwork, suspect decision making, and inconsistent accuracy don't make it. Especially coming from an air raid offense. Mahomes might be the guy that breaks the trend. I am hoping Allen is as well. 

16 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

If Andy Reid is so smart, how come in all his years in Philly he passed on guys like Rodgers, Brady, Big Ben, and Brees just to name a few off the top of my head?

 

Not to mention if Andy Reid knew Mahomes would be THIS good in his offense he wouldn't have waited until #10 to trade up. He would have given up a whole draft to move up to #2 if that's what was needed. Trying to predict how QBs will turn out might be impossible.

[mannc]

47 minutes ago, yungmack said:

Four of the nine teams you cite were set at QB (Tenn, SD, Cin, Car.), three are historically inept at evaluating QBs (Chi, Jets, Cleve) and one is like the Bills, 20 years behind the reality of today's NFL so foolishly overvalued the RB position (Jax). As for SF, who knows?

Jax also belongs in the “historically inept at evaluating QBs” category, having passed on Big Ben for a WR bust and taking a punter (!) with the pick immediately before Russell Wilson was selected by Seattle.  Oh, and they used the third overall pick in a great draft to select Blake Bortles.

[CuddyDark]

Apparently KC was scouting Mahomes for years.That's the story coming out of KC anyway. They believe he would be good for years before he was drafted.

[billybob71]

and with all the research and predicting these teams do alot of it comes down to luck and good fortune  Thats why u should take a qb every year until you find one. The bills should take one next year and the next year etc etc.Until one of these guys pans out.

[zow2]

Mahomes himself has said that Andy Reid is a genius.  Reid's coaching and their weapons around Mahomes have probably tapped into his highest potential.   I just don't recall anyone in the local or national media pounding the table for the Bills to draft Mahomes and/or saying after the draft how it was a horrible miss by Buffalo.  It's all 20/20 hindsight  stuff.  In addition, the Bills got a pretty darn good CB with the KC pick at a huge value, based on where Tre was picked and how good he turned out to be.

 

I recall in that draft if we were going QB, I wanted Deshaun Watson.   

[thenorthremembers]

Predicting Mahomes to be this good this fast was almost impossible.   While he threw for a ton of yards in college and completed a high number of passes, neither of those things was unusual for a quarterback from Texas Tech.   When it came to intangibles, he wasn't a winner, he didn't start a ton of games, and he tended to throw a lot of interceptions.   Additionally, his mechanics looked kind of bad on tape.   He stood out because he had a massive arm and was a uniquely gifted athlete.  Sound familiar?

 

When compared to Watson, he was nowhere near as special coming out when it came to the intangibles.   And when you watched Trubisky, his tape kind of screamed, pro style QB who appeared ready despite a low number of starts.   I am going to be honest, I disliked Mahomes about as much as I did Allen.   Never saw it coming.  Thought for sure Watson would be the best of the three.

 

But I give a ton of respect to Reid.  I think he is an amazingly underrated coach.   And as for not taking those other great quarterbacks, he already had McNabb who is another underrated NFLer. 

[DC Tom]

You know...I'm going to give up on the Bills and become a Chiefs fan, just so I CAN HEAR LESS ABOUT FRICKIN' MAHOMES!!!

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, dtgolder said:

Lots of folks lamenting the fact that the Bills passed on Mahomes...but looking back at the 2017 draft it sure seems the Bills weren't the only ones...

 

Recap: Mahomes was drafted 10th--looking at the players taken before him, we see:

 

• Myles Garrett (Cleveland)
• Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago)
• Solomon Thomas (San Francisco)
• Leonard Fournette (Jacksonville)
• Corey Davis (Tennessee)
• Jamal Adams (Jets)
• Mike Williams (Chargers)
• Christian McCaffrey (Carolina)
• John Ross (Bengals)

 

Yes, certainly the Bills may have some "selection remorse" now for not taking Mahomes--but I'd argue that *any* of these teams would now gladly trade their pick for Mahomes. Sure there are some good players on the above list, but I'd bet that each and every one of them would be traded straight-up for Mahomes at this point...(one might even add the Rams to this list as they traded the fifth pick to the Titans...)

 

And remember as well that there were a lot of questions about Mahomes at the time--some folks felt he was a great talent, while others were sure he'd be a bust...

 

Just proves (yet again) that it's simply not that easy to predict success in the NFL, and particularly at the QB position. 

 

 

Posed this question to someone else - do you think Buffalo makes the playoffs in 2017 with Pat Mahomes at pick 10?  

 

I'd argue no... Tyrod probably still would've started, Mahomes probably doesn't take the job from him as he's raw and Dennison was a terrible OC.  I think the talent deficiencies on the offense would have also made him struggle considerably more.

 

Also - Tre white literally won us 2 games last year and without him we probably had the worst CBs in the NFL.

Edited October 31, 2018 by dneveu

[BringBackOrton]

3 hours ago, dtgolder said:

Lots of folks lamenting the fact that the Bills passed on Mahomes...but looking back at the 2017 draft it sure seems the Bills weren't the only ones...

 

Recap: Mahomes was drafted 10th--looking at the players taken before him, we see:

 

• Myles Garrett (Cleveland)
• Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago)
• Solomon Thomas (San Francisco)
• Leonard Fournette (Jacksonville)
• Corey Davis (Tennessee)
• Jamal Adams (Jets)
• Mike Williams (Chargers)
• Christian McCaffrey (Carolina)
• John Ross (Bengals)

 

Yes, certainly the Bills may have some "selection remorse" now for not taking Mahomes--but I'd argue that *any* of these teams would now gladly trade their pick for Mahomes. Sure there are some good players on the above list, but I'd bet that each and every one of them would be traded straight-up for Mahomes at this point...(one might even add the Rams to this list as they traded the fifth pick to the Titans...)

 

And remember as well that there were a lot of questions about Mahomes at the time--some folks felt he was a great talent, while others were sure he'd be a bust...

 

Just proves (yet again) that it's simply not that easy to predict success in the NFL, and particularly at the QB position. 

 

In a league where only the top 12 teams make the playoffs every season, saying it's not so bad because the Bills aren't the only dumb ones in the bottom ten is quite a take.

Edited October 31, 2018 by BringBackOrton

[The_Dude]

3 hours ago, dtgolder said:

Lots of folks lamenting the fact that the Bills passed on Mahomes...but looking back at the 2017 draft it sure seems the Bills weren't the only ones...

 

Recap: Mahomes was drafted 10th--looking at the players taken before him, we see:

 

• Myles Garrett (Cleveland)
• Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago)
• Solomon Thomas (San Francisco)
• Leonard Fournette (Jacksonville)
• Corey Davis (Tennessee)
• Jamal Adams (Jets)
• Mike Williams (Chargers)
• Christian McCaffrey (Carolina)
• John Ross (Bengals)

 

Yes, certainly the Bills may have some "selection remorse" now for not taking Mahomes--but I'd argue that *any* of these teams would now gladly trade their pick for Mahomes. Sure there are some good players on the above list, but I'd bet that each and every one of them would be traded straight-up for Mahomes at this point...(one might even add the Rams to this list as they traded the fifth pick to the Titans...)

 

And remember as well that there were a lot of questions about Mahomes at the time--some folks felt he was a great talent, while others were sure he'd be a bust...

 

Just proves (yet again) that it's simply not that easy to predict success in the NFL, and particularly at the QB position. 

 

 

Yeah, it’s amazing how bad prople are at their jobs in the NFL. It was obvious the kid was a Hall if Famer coming out of college. I notice people have quit mocking me recently for saying that. Two years ago everybody told me how dumb I was. 

[LSHMEAB]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

I didn't want Mahomes anymore than I wanted Allen. Historically, strong armed QBs with poor footwork, suspect decision making, and inconsistent accuracy don't make it. Especially coming from an air raid offense. Mahomes might be the guy that breaks the trend. I am hoping Allen is as well. 

 

Not to mention if Andy Reid knew Mahomes would be THIS good in his offense he wouldn't have waited until #10 to trade up. He would have given up a whole draft to move up to #2 if that's what was needed. Trying to predict how QBs will turn out might be impossible.

My only counterpoint would be that Mahomes was ultra productive in college and Allen was not. 

 

I admit that I was a bit skeptical of what that production actually represented considering the offensive system.

 

What irks me is when people deny what they're witnessing. It's clear as day Mahomes is a star and I think if people were intellectually honest, they would acknowledge that.

[technobot]

Long time lurker, first time poster:

 

my 2 cents:  Mahomes would have been wasted on this iteration of the Bills, especially considering the roster teardown that just occurred.  We don't have the pieces nor the coaches to cultivate/develop him (yet).  I believe he's got enough talent that we would have seen obvious flashes but my guess is he would not be tearing the league up like he is now.  TBH, he would probably be running for his life.

Edited October 31, 2018 by technobot

[Fadingpain]

Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

It is hard to foresee who will be good or great.  That's why a team like Buffalo should have a system in place where they are taking a stab at QBs constantly, almost expecting them not to pan out.

When one does, you're all set for a decade and more and have a chance to win a championship.

 

 

[jrober38]

Passing on Mahomes set this franchise back enormously. 

 

Try to spin it if you want, but passing on both him and Watson was an epic mistake. 

[mannc]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

Passing on Mahomes set this franchise back enormously. 

 

Try to spin it if you want, but passing on both him and Watson was an epic mistake. 

There’s really no serious argument to the contrary.  

[iinii]

2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

If Andy Reid is so smart, how come in all his years in Philly he passed on guys like Rodgers, Brady, Big Ben, and Brees just to name a few off the top of my head?

 

This goes back to the OP's point, not nearly as easy to predict as some want to think in hind sight.  And lets give Mahomes more than half a season before we start sculpting his HOF bust here too.

Maybe Reid is older and wiser now?

8 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

It is hard to foresee who will be good or great.  That's why a team like Buffalo should have a system in place where they are taking a stab at QBs constantly, almost expecting them not to pan out.

When one does, you're all set for a decade and more and have a chance to win a championship.

 

 

I agree with that draft strategy across the board. Betting the farm on one guy to fill a position is short sighted. If there is a can’t miss which is rare due to the nature of the game and life in general, I would pick multiples in positions of need. That way you competition and depth.  Next year barring the addition of even more picks, where you could get Clemson’s D-line, I would  use the picks on WR and O-line. Maybe sprinkle in a RB and a TE, since those are complimentary to the need as is. 

 

[LSHMEAB]

11 minutes ago, iinii said:

Maybe Reid is older and wiser now?

I agree with that draft strategy across the board. Betting the farm on one guy to fill a position is short sighted. If there is a can’t miss which is rare due to the nature of the game and life in general, I would pick multiples in positions of need. That way you competition and depth.  Next year barring the addition of even more picks, where you could get Clemson’s D-line, I would  use the picks on WR and O-line. Maybe sprinkle in a RB and a TE, since those are complimentary to the need as is. 

 

It wasn't via draft, but when it was clear the Eagles needed to upgrade the WR position, they acquired both Torrey Smith and Alshon Jeffrey. I don't believe they thought both would be great fits. They were essentially giving them both an opportunity to demonstrate their talents. Obviously Jeffrey stuck and Smith didn't. I think that's a great approach.

[iinii]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

It wasn't via draft, but when it was clear the Eagles needed to upgrade the WR position, they acquired both Torrey Smith and Alshon Jeffrey. I don't believe they thought both would be great fits. They were essentially giving them both an opportunity to demonstrate their talents. Obviously Jeffrey stuck and Smith didn't. I think that's a great approach.

See you can be the GM and I will make sure the coffee is fresh. Just win!

[BillsVet]

For years I've seen people on TBD comparing other teams' draft mistakes and how that somehow absolves the Bills. 

 

As if the bad teams making questionable/bad personnel decisions somehow are the standard and if Buffalo is just like them it's all good. Sure, whatever. 

 

 

 

 

 

[skibum]

I will admit that I thought he was a joke when he was drafted. He looked 12 years old. No way did I think he was going to be the next superstar QB. 

[nucci]

3 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Right now, still too early to tell. Wentz looked way better than Goff initially. Different story this year 

Wentz is still recovering from a serious knee injury

[MJS]

3 hours ago, Perry Turtle said:

It's telling that the majority of teams who passed on Mahomes have defensive-minded coaches or have a 'settled' QB situation (Chargers, Titans, Bengals).

 

Andy Reid, one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, was able to see the potential in Mahomes and traded up to make him the 10th pick.  

 

The Bears took Trubisky under Johnn Fox, a defensive-minded coach , but it's apparent that Mahomes is the better QB.

 

Maybe the key to drafting a great QB is to have a more offensive-minded guy make the selection.

 

 

What's apparent is that Mahomes fell into a unique situation. He came to a perennial playoff team with a solid veteran QB. He was able to sit and learn. He is surrounded by elite weapons on offense and has an innovative offensive coach.

 

It's pretty clear that he had the best possible thing happen to him. If you switch him with Trubisky, he may have similarly thrived (that goes for Josh Allen, too).

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, nucci said:

Wentz is still recovering from a serious knee injury

 

Yeah, both Wentz and Watson are rounding back into form.

 

It was convenient for Bills fans to suggest they were struggling and might not be all that good. Now that they're both playing really well again, there's little that fits their narrative that it makes sense to hold out hope that the light is suddenly going to turn on for Allen. 

 

Most young QBs who make it as franchise players show it very often. Rarely do they struggle as badly as Allen has struggled this year. 

3 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

What's apparent is that Mahomes fell into a unique situation. He came to a perennial playoff team with a solid veteran QB. He was able to sit and learn. He is surrounded by elite weapons on offense and has an innovative offensive coach.

 

It's pretty clear that he had the best possible thing happen to him. If you switch him with Trubisky, he may have similarly thrived (that goes for Josh Allen, too).

 

Mahomes does everything better than Allen on a football field. And I'm not talking about right now; this dates back to their full college careers as well.

 

The fact that we passed on Mahomes at 10 and traded up to take Allen at 7 made no sense whatsoever. 

 

Mahomes has always been an elite passer. Allen is just a guy with a strong arm, and there's a big difference between the two. 

Edited October 31, 2018 by jrober38

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, DC Tom said:

You know...I'm going to give up on the Bills and become a Chiefs fan, just so I CAN HEAR LESS ABOUT FRICKIN' MAHOMES!!!

 

I'm torn about this. On one hand, YES. On the other, who will we have to call people idiots?

 

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 Mahomes does everything better than Allen on a football field. And I'm not talking about right now; this dates back to their full college careers as well.

 

The fact that we passed on Mahomes at 10 and traded up to take Allen at 7 made no sense whatsoever. 

 

I don't watch college ball, but there was plenty debate about Mahomes. He fell to 10 for a reason, and many thought he would fall further than that. Allen was a consensus top 10 pick.

 

Comparing their current situations is pretty obviously unfair. Allen was thrust into playing before he was ready and has no talent around him. He's on a team rebuilding. Mahomes went to an established team with tons of talent and didn't play until he was ready.

[HappyDays]

56 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

My only counterpoint would be that Mahomes was ultra productive in college and Allen was not. 

 

I admit that I was a bit skeptical of what that production actually represented considering the offensive system.

 

What irks me is when people deny what they're witnessing. It's clear as day Mahomes is a star and I think if people were intellectually honest, they would acknowledge that.

 

I don't really care about college production when I'm looking at QBs, JMO. The one thing Mahomes has done really well is diagnosing defenses pre and post snap. That wasn't apparent at Texas Tech where he ran a gimmick spread offense.

[jrober38]

8 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

I don't watch college ball, but there was plenty debate about Mahomes. He fell to 10 for a reason, and many thought he would fall further than that. Allen was a consensus top 10 pick.

 

Comparing their current situations is pretty obviously unfair. Allen was thrust into playing before he was ready and has no talent around him. He's on a team rebuilding. Mahomes went to an established team with tons of talent and didn't play until he was ready.

 

I don't buy it.

 

There's nothing Allen does better than Mahomes on the football field. Allen was the inferior player in every aspect you can look at a QB.

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I don't buy it.

 

There's nothing Allen does better than Mahomes on the football field. Allen was the inferior player in every aspect you can look at a QB.

 

I'm not qualified to make such a grand statement, and I don't believe you are either.

[jrober38]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't really care about college production when I'm looking at QBs, JMO. The one thing Mahomes has done really well is diagnosing defenses pre and post snap. That wasn't apparent at Texas Tech where he ran a gimmick spread offense.

 

Alllen wasn't good at this in a pro style system at Wyoming.

 

So far as a Bill he's struggled badly in this department. 

[PatsFanNH]

4 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Right now, still too early to tell. Wentz looked way better than Goff initially. Different story this year 

^^^ This right here! This is Mahommes first thrust into the league. There isn’t a ton of game film on him and he has a ton of talented skill position players. Let’s see how next year goes for him. (And the rest of this year.)

[jrober38]

Just now, PatsFanNH said:

^^^ This right here! This is Mahommes first thrust into the league. There isn’t a ton of game film on him and he has a ton of talented skill position players. Let’s see how next year goes for him. (And the rest of this year.)

 

I don't get this. Why are so many people sure that young, successful QBs like Mahomes, Goff, Wentz and Watson will get worse, and on the flip side how can you be so convinced that Josh Allen will get better.

 

If those guys can get worse as teams figure out their tendencies, isn't the same true for Allen? 

[PatsFanNH]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

I don't get this. Why are so many people sure that young, successful QBs like Mahomes, Goff, Wentz and Watson will get worse, and on the flip side how can you be so convinced that Josh Allen will get better.

 

If those guys can get worse as teams figure out their tendencies, isn't the same true for Allen? 

That wasn’t my intent. My point was stop thinking he is great based off of a small sample size.  Wentz, Watson, and Jimmy G have come back to good QB but not earth shattering game changers. Both Goff and Mahommes have a sick amount of studs around them in skill positions. Goff has more and well that team be done if a certain (Gurley) RB goes down.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

That wasn’t my intent. My point was stop thinking he is great based off of a small sample size.  Wentz, Watson, and Jimmy G have come back to good QB but not earth shattering game changers. Both Goff and Mahommes have a sick amount of studs around them in skill positions. Goff has more and well that team be done if a certain (Gurley) RB goes down.

 Wentz and Watson have been great the last three weeks. They're both recovering from major injuries and are steadily rounding back into the form they were in a year ago.

 

Jimmy G is hurt. No idea how he has anything to do with this argument considering he's in like his 5th season in the league. 

The point is this; most long term starters in the NFL showed they were good almost immediately. There are exceptions, but most of the guys who start for 5+ straight years are guys who had early success. 

 

On the flip side, most busts are guys who struggled initially. Again, there are exceptions, but the vast majority of the time if a rookie QB comes in and struggles with the basics, it's a bad predictor for how their overall career will go. 

[iinii]

24 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

I don't watch college ball, but there was plenty debate about Mahomes. He fell to 10 for a reason, and many thought he would fall further than that. Allen was a consensus top 10 pick.

 

Comparing their current situations is pretty obviously unfair. Allen was thrust into playing before he was ready and has no talent around him. He's on a team rebuilding. Mahomes went to an established team with tons of talent and didn't play until he was ready.

And that is what has eroded my confidence in this regime. McDermott is a DC and hasn’t brought in people on the offensive side to compensate for his short comings. Throwing Allen to the wolves was foolhardy at best. 

[Tcali]

4 hours ago, dtgolder said:

Lots of folks lamenting the fact that the Bills passed on Mahomes...but looking back at the 2017 draft it sure seems the Bills weren't the only ones...

 

Recap: Mahomes was drafted 10th--looking at the players taken before him, we see:

 

• Myles Garrett (Cleveland)
• Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago)
• Solomon Thomas (San Francisco)
• Leonard Fournette (Jacksonville)
• Corey Davis (Tennessee)
• Jamal Adams (Jets)
• Mike Williams (Chargers)
• Christian McCaffrey (Carolina)
• John Ross (Bengals)

 

Yes, certainly the Bills may have some "selection remorse" now for not taking Mahomes--but I'd argue that *any* of these teams would now gladly trade their pick for Mahomes. Sure there are some good players on the above list, but I'd bet that each and every one of them would be traded straight-up for Mahomes at this point...(one might even add the Rams to this list as they traded the fifth pick to the Titans...)

 

And remember as well that there were a lot of questions about Mahomes at the time--some folks felt he was a great talent, while others were sure he'd be a bust...

 

Just proves (yet again) that it's simply not that easy to predict success in the NFL, and particularly at the QB position. 

 

For bad franchises its especially difficult to predict.