Joe B: 53 Man Roster Projection - Final

[Johnny Hammersticks]

28 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Buffalo Bills: Predicting the 53-man roster after two preseason games

 

by Evan Przybylak

 

The Buffalo Bills are creeping closer and closer to the regular season, so that means it’s time for the annual 53-man roster prediction.

 

After the Buffalo Bills second preseason game, we have started to see the strengths and weaknesses of players on the roster.

 

Even though there are two more preseason games left, I have created my roster prediction and am ready to share.

 

Croom and Wesley released?  I think that would be a mistake.

[jlgarsh]

I doubt Coleman gets cut this quickly.  

[The Bills Blog]

Allen
Peterman

 

McCoy
Ivory
Murphy
Cadet

 

DiMarco

 

Dawkins
Teller
Groy
Miller
Boettger
Redmond
Wesley
Newhouse

(Because we'd all love Ducasse, Bodine, and Mills to be released)

 

Clay
O'Leary
Lee
Thomas

 

Benjamin
Jones
Kerley
Coleman
Holmes
McCloud III

 

Hauschka
Ferguson
Schmidt

 

Hughes
Lotulelei
Williams
Murphy
Lawson
Phillips
Washington
Yarbrough

 

Alexander
Edmunds
Robinson
Milano
Lacey
Humber

 

White
Davis
Johnson
Gaines
Pitts
Wallace

 

Poyer
Hyde
Bush
Marlowe
Neal

[BobbyC81]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Buffalo Bills: Predicting the 53-man roster after two preseason games

 

by Evan Przybylak

 

The Buffalo Bills are creeping closer and closer to the regular season, so that means it’s time for the annual 53-man roster prediction.

 

After the Buffalo Bills second preseason game, we have started to see the strengths and weaknesses of players on the roster.

 

Even though there are two more preseason games left, I have created my roster prediction and am ready to share.

 

His list has only 51 players.  So, I would add an O-lineman that can play multiple positions, and keep Logan Thomas as a 4th TE.

[MrEpsYtown]

On 8/11/2018 at 2:28 PM, Big C said:

Who is fielding kicks and punts on these 53 projections? Would think Ray Ray makes it for that reason alone.

 

I think Murphy is looking like a main return guy and Kerley does that as well. I believe Gaines is a gunner and Andre Holmes, Lorax, Stanford, Vallejo, Humber, Lacey, Bush, Marlowe would be most of your core special teams guys. I think McCloud has a shot, but Murphy has passed him on the return depth chart imo. 

[ganesh]

On 8/11/2018 at 10:56 PM, Domdab99 said:

I still don't understand why people think we need 4 TEs

or 4 RBs and a FB

[MrEpsYtown]

On 8/11/2018 at 1:26 PM, Domdab99 said:

I still don't understand why people think we need 4 TEs

 

I don't think this is unreasonable. This regime kept four tight ends last year and Daboll has kept multiple tight ends as an OC and in his NE days. I don't see any reason that they would not do it again. 

[BuffaloRebound]

That Fede guy was one of the few D-Lineman getting up the field last night.  Not sure what the numbers are gonna be on the DL, but out of the non-lock guys up front, he was the most noticeable.  We need Murphy healthy ASAP and/or get Mack here somehow.  Run defense seemed to be everyone’s main worry from last night but we will get torched by good QB’s if we give them 4 or 5 seconds to throw on majority of drop backs.  

[26CornerBlitz]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

That Fede guy was one of the few D-Lineman getting up the field last night.  Not sure what the numbers are gonna be on the DL, but out of the non-lock guys up front, he was the most noticeable.  We need Murphy healthy ASAP and/or get Mack here somehow.  Run defense seemed to be everyone’s main worry from last night but we will get torched by good QB’s if we give them 4 or 5 seconds to throw on majority of drop backs.  

 

Fede showed up against guys who'll be on the street in September, but earier in the game he was getting caught inside against the run. 

[Doc]

41 minutes ago, LittleJoeCartwright said:

His list has only 51 players.  So, I would add an O-lineman that can play multiple positions, and keep Logan Thomas as a 4th TE.

 

Not only does he have just 51 players, but it includes McCarron.  At best I see McCarron being put on IR possibly for return later in the season, but more likely IR with an injury settlement.  And to get the roster to 53, I'd add another TE (Clay and O'Leary are locks with 2 from among Lee, Croom or Thomas), another OL (Wesley), and another DL with Murphy and now Kyle ailing. 

[Chandler#81]

19 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Fede showed up against guys who'll be on the street in September, but earier in the game he was getting caught inside against the run. 

and made to look foolish on a couple play action fakes, chasing the wrong guy while the ball carrier ran right past him!

[Punching Bag]

On 8/18/2018 at 10:17 PM, Doc said:

Not only does he have just 51 players, but it includes McCarron.  At best I see McCarron being put on IR possibly for return later in the season, but more likely IR with an injury settlement.  And to get the roster to 53, I'd add another TE (Clay and O'Leary are locks with 2 from among Lee, Croom or Thomas), another OL (Wesley), and another DL with Murphy and now Kyle ailing. 

 

Likely 51 were listed because he was expecting cuts from other teams making team.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

14 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Not only does he have just 51 players, but it includes McCarron.  At best I see McCarron being put on IR possibly for return later in the season, but more likely IR with an injury settlement.  And to get the roster to 53, I'd add another TE (Clay and O'Leary are locks with 2 from among Lee, Croom or Thomas), another OL (Wesley), and another DL with Murphy and now Kyle ailing. 

 

Can they just cut him, or is that not allowed since he's hurt?  Can't see wasting  an "IR possible to return slot on him."

[Punching Bag]

On 8/18/2018 at 10:33 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Can they just cut him, or is that not allowed since he's hurt?  Can't see wasting  an "IR possible to return slot on him."

 

If he is cut when injured they have to give him an injury settlement and would not be able to resign him this year/

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Can they just cut him, or is that not allowed since he's hurt?  Can't see wasting  an "IR possible to return slot on him."

 

Releasing him has cap implications since he has guaranteed money in his contract. 

 

They couldn't activate him from IR this season unless he begins the season on the 53. 

[Big C]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I think Murphy is looking like a main return guy and Kerley does that as well. I believe Gaines is a gunner and Andre Holmes, Lorax, Stanford, Vallejo, Humber, Lacey, Bush, Marlowe would be most of your core special teams guys. I think McCloud has a shot, but Murphy has passed him on the return depth chart imo. 

 

After this week, you're absolutely right.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

13 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Releasing him has cap implications since he has guaranteed money in his contract. 

 

They couldn't activate him from IR this season unless he begins the season on the 53. 

 

Yes understand there's a cap hit, but thought I read his guaranteed money this season was $900k and next year $1000M relatively small numbers by today's standards.  Didn't think he got a huge signing bonus so didn't think overall the cap hit  would be too bad.

 

My question though just in general, can you outright cut an injured player and not cost any money other than the cap hit?  Is that allowed?

 

OK just saw Limeaids reply, so they can cut him but would be an injury settlement and believe then the rules are the Bills are the one team that can NOT resign him this season.

 

Wasn't there a QB a few seasons back the Bills cut in pre-season, not injured then resigned after week 1, that way didn't have to guarantee full years salary?

Edited August 19, 2018 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[Doc]

13 hours ago, Limeaid said:

Likely 51 were listed because he was expecting cuts from other teams making team.

 

That would make sense but he never indicated that anywhere.

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Yes understand there's a cap hit, but thought I read his guaranteed money this season was $900k and next year $1000M relatively small numbers by today's standards.  Didn't think he got a huge signing bonus so didn't think overall the cap hit  would be too bad.

 

My question though just in general, can you outright cut an injured player and not cost any money other than the cap hit?  Is that allowed?

 

A.J. McCarron

 

A.J. McCarron signed a 2 year, $10,000,000 contract with the Buffalo Bills, including a $4,000,000 signing bonus, $7,900,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $5,000,000. In 2018, McCarron will earn a base salary of $900,000, a signing bonus of $4,000,000 and a workout bonus of $100,000, while carrying a cap hit of $3,000,000 and a dead cap value of $5,000,000.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

A.J. McCarron

 

A.J. McCarron signed a 2 year, $10,000,000 contract with the Buffalo Bills, including a $4,000,000 signing bonus, $7,900,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $5,000,000. In 2018, McCarron will earn a base salary of $900,000, a signing bonus of $4,000,000 and a workout bonus of $100,000, while carrying a cap hit of $3,000,000 and a dead cap value of $5,000,000.

 

Well I had the 900 part right, just left off the 7 in front of it! Not a big difference!! 

[djp14150]

16 hours ago, LittleJoeCartwright said:

 

His list has only 51 players.  So, I would add an O-lineman that can play multiple positions, and keep Logan Thomas as a 4th TE.

 

16 hours ago, LittleJoeCartwright said:

 

His list has only 51 players.  So, I would add an O-lineman that can play multiple positions, and keep Logan Thomas as a 4th TE.

 

 

My rule use of thumb.....

 

3 QB

4 RB/FB

6 WR

3 TE

8 OL

24 offense

 

8 DL

6 LB

9 DB

23 on defense

 

K, P, LS

3 special teamers

 

50 roster spits

 

the 3 extra would fill in fir short term injured players or young rookie picks, ir other raw talent you fear won’t get to PS

 

if AJ injury is a 6 week injury then buffalo likely has a 4th QB on the roster

 

The other 2 spots

 

1 on offense between RB, TE, WRm and IL

 

1 on defense would be between a LB and DB

 

 

 

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Another projection for the Bills' 53.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

53 Man Roster Projection from Cover 1:

 

NFL Preseason Week 3: Bills 53-man roster prediction

 

Two games are in the books, with two more to go. Going into the preseason week three matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, the dress rehearsal game will define not just the starters for week one; it’s also the best opportunity for second-teamers to separate from the third-stringers and guarantee their places on the 53-man roster. Here’s my prediction of who would be the Bills’ choices if the cut day were today:

[thenorthremembers]

14 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

53 Man Roster Projection from Cover 1:

 

NFL Preseason Week 3: Bills 53-man roster prediction

 

Two games are in the books, with two more to go. Going into the preseason week three matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, the dress rehearsal game will define not just the starters for week one; it’s also the best opportunity for second-teamers to separate from the third-stringers and guarantee their places on the 53-man roster. Here’s my prediction of who would be the Bills’ choices if the cut day were today:

 

Cover 1 is much better at play autopsies than roster predictions.

 

 

[TPS]

14 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

53 Man Roster Projection from Cover 1:

 

NFL Preseason Week 3: Bills 53-man roster prediction

 

Two games are in the books, with two more to go. Going into the preseason week three matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, the dress rehearsal game will define not just the starters for week one; it’s also the best opportunity for second-teamers to separate from the third-stringers and guarantee their places on the 53-man roster. Here’s my prediction of who would be the Bills’ choices if the cut day were today:

The first part of the explanation for keeping Coleman (Beane values his picks) is pretty weak. A 7th round pick in 2020 is about as close to 0 as you can get on the trade value charts...

[billieve420]

With the new kick off rules I expect to see more athletic and faster players kept. So that would mean more WRs, LBs, RBs and DBs in my opinion.

Edited August 22, 2018 by billieve420

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Cover 1 is much better at play autopsies than roster predictions.

 

What do you disagree with?

[MiltonWaddams]

3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

What do you disagree with?

4 cb's is really leaving things thin back there in the case of an injury. I am not certain who is worth keeping in addition to those 4, but I'd hope to see at least one more.

[Royale with Cheese]

I actually would feel bad for McCaron if he does become our 3rd stringer behind Allen and Peterman.  

He fought to get his release to seek out starting opportunities and it's possible he actually went backwards.  

 

If I was him and I was 3rd on the depth chart...I would ask for my release.  Someone could use him as a #2.

[MiltonWaddams]

8 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I actually would feel bad for McCaron if he does become our 3rd stringer behind Allen and Peterman.  

He fought to get his release to seek out starting opportunities and it's possible he actually went backwards.  

 

If I was him and I was 3rd on the depth chart...I would ask for my release.  Someone could use him as a #2.

What did you witness in his play so far to bring upon this opinion? I understand the philosophy behind it, but his execution on the field, despite a OL with protection issues, was terrible vs the Browns. His sample size is small, so we may not have seen the best of AJ, I'm just not sure that a QB making QB2 money that has fallen to QB3 on a thin depth chart at OBD is really going to be in high demand on the open market.

[Paul Costa]

I don’t think Taiwan Jones will make the 53. I think it’s obvious we need to upgrade the LB room. I feel they will carry 5 CB’s not 4. O’Leary makes it. not sure on the fifth DT or DE either. Ryan signed with us quickly for a reason wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him on the team. I think there 53 is pretty accurate. With a couple of possible exceptions. Wouldn’t be surprised if Beane makes a trade or two either. And they will be active on cutdown day ?

[RyanC883]

wow.   the LB's and DE's are awful overall.   I doubt this is what we end up with.  I'm thinking some team cuts an LB who has a significant role on this team.  

Edited August 22, 2018 by RyanC883

[Boatdrinks]

17 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I actually would feel bad for McCaron if he does become our 3rd stringer behind Allen and Peterman.  

He fought to get his release to seek out starting opportunities and it's possible he actually went backwards.  

 

If I was him and I was 3rd on the depth chart...I would ask for my release.  Someone could use him as a #2.

Considering he received a $4m signing bonus , and another 3.9m of his contract is guaranteed I doubt AJM would do this. He didn’t receive that much interest before the injury. 

[thenorthremembers]

37 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

What do you disagree with?

 

There isnt much I agree with, but I am also not a locally respected website.  But in terms of the things I didnt agree with:

 

Keeping McCloud over Streater:   If the writer suggests keeping Taiwan Jones for his special team’s ability what is the point of keep McCloud?  I ask because Jones in that instance would be your KR, so they keep McCloud on the merit of what?   I feel it's more likely McCloud goes to IR for the year.  Streater can play gunner on special teams and provides more experience and speed than McCloud.

 

Keeping Lee, Thomas, and Croom over O’Leary:   It’s not so much I don’t think they will cut O’Leary, its more about them keeping the over three over him.   I see the Khari Lee point, he is the best blocker of the group.   But both Croom and Thomas over him?   I ask what does Croom provide that Thomas doesn’t?   I’ve never seen the emergence, or perceived emergence of Croom as a threat to O’Leary, more of a chance to see if he can beat out Lee and Thomas.   I still think Croom gets cut.

Keeping Hatley and Ryan Russell:  Why?  In my opinion the only way Russell makes the team is if they Short Term IR Murphy, which could happen.  But long term what does either of these guys provide except holding the bench down on game days?  They provide nothing on special teams, with the rule change lineman are less valuable there.    You need more defensive backs and linebackers in that area, which brings me to

Keeping 4 Cornerbacks:  I understand they will use the three safety look a lot, but four cornerbacks?  I believe they kept five last year and depth was an issue.  Maybe they sign players from another team but I would be shocked if they only kept 4.

Siran Neal:  I don’t think they outright cut the kid.   He is there 5^th rounder and I think someone who can help on special teams.  Given the fact they use the three safety look they will need depth there.   I know he hasn’t been stellar this offseason but he seemed to come on a bit last game. 

 

 

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, MiltonWaddams said:

What did you witness in his play so far to bring upon this opinion? I understand the philosophy behind it, but his execution on the field, despite a OL with protection issues, was terrible vs the Browns. His sample size is small, so we may not have seen the best of AJ, I'm just not sure that a QB making QB2 money that has fallen to QB3 on a thin depth chart at OBD is really going to be in high demand on the open market.

 

Just based on the projection depth chart from Cover 1.  They have Allen 3rd.

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

There isnt much I agree with, but I am also not a locally respected website.  But in terms of the things I didnt agree with:

 

Keeping McCloud over Streater:   If the writer suggests keeping Taiwan Jones for his special team’s ability what is the point of keep McCloud?  I ask because Jones in that instance would be your KR, so they keep McCloud on the merit of what?   I feel it's more likely McCloud goes to IR for the year.  Streater can play gunner on special teams and provides more experience and speed than McCloud.

 

 

 

Keeping Lee, Thomas, and Croom over O’Leary:   It’s not so much I don’t think they will cut O’Leary, its more about them keeping the over three over him.   I see the Khari Lee point, he is the best blocker of the group.   But both Croom and Thomas over him?   I ask what does Croom provide that Thomas doesn’t?   I’ve never seen the emergence, or perceived emergence of Croom as a threat to O’Leary, more of a chance to see if he can beat out Lee and Thomas.   I still think Croom gets cut.

 

Keeping Hatley and Ryan Russell:  Why?  In my opinion the only way Russell makes the team is if they Short Term IR Murphy, which could happen.  But long term what does either of these guys provide except holding the bench down on game days?  They provide nothing on special teams, with the rule change lineman are less valuable there.    You need more defensive backs and linebackers in that area, which brings me to

 

Keeping 4 Cornerbacks:  I understand they will use the three safety look a lot, but four cornerbacks?  I believe they kept five last year and depth was an issue.  Maybe they sign players from another team but I would be shocked if they only kept 4.

 

Siran Neal:  I don’t think they outright cut the kid.   He is there 5^th rounder and I think someone who can help on special teams.  Given the fact they use the three safety look they will need depth there.   I know he hasn’t been stellar this offseason but he seemed to come on a bit last game. 

 

 

I think he has the right 6 receivers though I agree it essentially comes down to Streater or Ray-Ray for the 6th spot.  I don't think Taiwan Jones makes the team (he has hardly been used through 2 pre-season games) so they could even go a running back light and go for a 7th receiver with Streater, McCloud and Holmes all offering some ST ability? 

 

TE - Lee is going to make the team as a blocker who offers some receiving ability. I don't see them keeping 4.  Why would they when none of the other 3 have made a big impression. I'd keep O'Leary ahead of the other two but I don't care which one of the 3 they keep.... just don't keep 4 Tight Ends when 4 haven't deserved to make the team.

 

I think 5 DTs and 5 DEs stems directly from concern around Trent Murphy and Kyle Williams health wise. I can see them IR'ing Murphy and so the 5th becomes the 4th. If they are doubtful about Kyle being full go week 1 they will keep an extra DT to open the season. 

 

4 corners? Yep. There is no way they only go with 4. In fairness to the author the 4 he has them keeping are the only 4 I expect from the current roster to make the opening day 53. I expect the 5th corner for week 1 is currently on someone else's roster. 

 

Siran Neal is an interesting case. I think they see him long term as a big nickel. They didn't use the 3 safety look at all last year - 0% of defensive snaps. They have practised some with Bush in there as a 3rd safety in goalline and 3rd down scenarios in a variation of the big nickel (medium sized nickel maybe?) but I doubt that means an extra safety is "needed". The question with Neal is do they believe he would clear waivers? If they don't then I think they keep him on the 53 as a luxury and give him a redshirt year where he is inactive every single week. Feels like a waste of a spot but they clearly see some long term upside in him.  

[Wayne Arnold]

I haven't looked at any projections yet. Here is mine going into preseason inter-team scrimmage #3. Feel pretty confident about it at this point, although jobs can be lost/gained over these next eight days.

 

QB - Nathan Peterman (1)
AJ McCarron (4/-) / Josh Allen (R-1)

 

RB1 - Lesean McCoy (9/3)
Marcus Murphy (3/1)

 

RB2 - Chris Ivory (8/-) 
Patrick Dimarco (7/1)

 

WR1 - Kelvin Benjamin (4/1)
Andre Holmes (7/1) / Raymond McCloud (R-6)

 

WR2 - Zay Jones (1)
Jeremy Kerley (7/-) / Corey Coleman (2/-)

 

TE - Charles Clay (7/3)
Khari Lee (3/1) / Jason Croom (1)

 

LT - Dion Dawkins (1) 

 

LG - Vladimir Ducasse (8/1)
Wyatt Teller (R-5)

 

C  - Ryan Groy (4/3)
Russell Bodine (4/-)

 

RG - John Miller (3)

 

RT - Jordan Mills (4/2)
Marshall Newhouse (8/-)

 

*****************************************************************************

 

RDE - Jerry Hughes (8/5)
Eddie Yarbrough (3/2)

 

NT - Star Lotulelei (5/-)
Rickey Hatley (1)

 

DT -  Harrison Phillips (R-3)
Adolphus Washington (2) / (Kyle Williams (12) - injured)

 

LDE - Shaq Lawson (2)
Trent Murphy (4/-) / Terrence Fede (4/-)

 

WLB - Matt Milano (1)
Ramon Humber (9/2)

 

MLB - Trumaine Edmunds (R-1)
Tanner Vallejo (1)

 

SLB - Lorenzo Alexander (13/2)
Deon Lacey (5/1)
 
CB -  Tre'Davious White (1)
Taron Johnson (R-4) / Levi Wallace (R-U)

 

CB -  Vontae Davis (9/-)
Phillip Gaines (4/-)

 

FS -  Jordan Poyer (5/1)
Rafael Bush (8/-)

 

SS -  Micah Hyde (5/1)
Dean Marlowe (3/1) / Siran Neal (R-5)

 

*****************************************************************************

 

K - Steven Hauschka (10/1)
P - Jon Ryan (14/-)
LS - Reid Ferguson (2)
 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

I haven't looked at any projections yet. Here is mine going into preseason inter-team scrimmage #3. Feel pretty confident about it at this point, although jobs can be lost/gained over these next eight days.
 

 

Literally the ONLY change I'd make to that at this stage is punter. Schmidt has much more leg than Ryan at this stage. Other than that I'm 100% with you. And I suspect Levi Wallace and Tanner Vallejo are cut within a couple of days of cut downs and replaced by people on other squads.

Edited August 22, 2018 by GunnerBill

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Literally the ONLY change I'd make to that at this stage is punter. Schmidt has much more leg than Ryan at this stage. 

 

He has Peterman as the starting QB.  Who took over this TBD account? 

Edited August 22, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He has Peterman as the starting QB.  Who took over this TBD account? 

 

To clarify - I don't necessarily mean the way he has them listed..... I mean the 53 names. Josh Allen will be the starting Quarterback.