Bills 300 yard passing games

[Pete]

12/24/16 Tyrod went for 329 against Miami.  Is it correct that before that the last 300 yard passer was JP Losman throwing for 340 against Texans 11/19/06?  I realized we have been horrible passing for a long time, but I didn't realize it was that big a draught.  Hopefully whenever Josh gets his shot, he can string together some 300 yard games and bring a new dimension to our offense

[Golden Goat]

23 minutes ago, Pete said:

12/24/16 Tyrod went for 329 against Miami.  Is it correct that before that the last 300 yard passer was JP Losman throwing for 340 against Texans 11/19/06?  I realized we have been horrible passing for a long time, but I didn't realize it was that big a draught.  Hopefully whenever Josh gets his shot, he can string together some 300 yard games and bring a new dimension to our offense

 

"The last time the Bills had a 300-yard passer: Dec. 21, 2014. Kyle Orton threw for 329 yards in the Bills' 26-24 loss to the Oakland Raiders. It was the last of three 300-yard games Orton had for the Bills in 2014."

 

https://auburnpub.com/blogs/in_the_pros/buffalo-bills-need--yard-passer-for-sammy-watkins-robert/article_d8652492-c4b8-11e6-a331-531f238acfce.html

 

 

 

 

Edited June 8, 2018 by Golden Goat

[mead107]

Flutie was 38 and passed for 366 in 2000 

i think 

[machine gun kelly]

37 minutes ago, Pete said:

12/24/16 Tyrod went for 329 against Miami.  Is it correct that before that the last 300 yard passer was JP Losman throwing for 340 against Texans 11/19/06?  I realized we have been horrible passing for a long time, but I didn't realize it was that big a draught.  Hopefully whenever Josh gets his shot, he can string together some 300 yard games and bring a new dimension to our offense

 

We can only hope.

 

love you’re pic Pete.  You probably have the best one on this board.

[White Linen]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

 

We can only hope.

 

love you’re pic Pete.  You probably have the best one on this board.

 

Mine should be your favorite.

[Augie]

2 hours ago, mead107 said:

Flutie was 38 and passed for 366 in 2000 

i think 

 

But did he make a single drop kick? 

[machine gun kelly]

Sorry -I’ll take Pete’s six days a week and twice on Sunday.  Could never say that while married as would be wrong, but divorced.  I do love Charlotte though bud.

 

Have a goodnight all as this guy is hitting the hay so I can workout before work in the AM.  It was fun reading everyone’s threads today as had a lot of down time for once in my role.  That usually doesn’t happen.

[Nick the Greek]

Fitz had some big games. I know he went over 300 in a few. He could be really fun to watch.. before he started throwing INTs.

 

https://www.footballdb.com/players/ryan-fitzpatrick-fitzpry01/300-yard-passing-games

Edited June 8, 2018 by Idandria

[twoandfourteen]

3 hours ago, Pete said:

12/24/16 Tyrod went for 329 against Miami.  Is it correct that before that the last 300 yard passer was JP Losman throwing for 340 against Texans 11/19/06?  I realized we have been horrible passing for a long time, but I didn't realize it was that big a draught.  Hopefully whenever Josh gets his shot, he can string together some 300 yard games and bring a new dimension to our offense

 

Orton and Fitzy both had a bunch of 300+ yd games. 

 

Fitz had games of 307, 350, 337, 369 vs New England alone. 

 

Which is why the whole "Tyrod is the best QB the Bills have had since Kelly" notion is absolutely absurd. If anything, they are all at the same level, and the only reason TT is in that group is because he didn't turn the ball over. But he also didn't produce much offense. At least the other guys were trying to make plays. 

 

*Also -- TT needed 5 quarters to throw for 300+. He was around 280 or so at the end of regulation. 

Edited June 8, 2018 by twoandfourteen

[Royale with Cheese]

I think I heard a stat last year that Brady has more 300 yard games against the Bills than all the Bills QB’s combined in the drought against the entire NFL.

[Augie]

5 minutes ago, Idandria said:

Fitz had some big games. I know he went over 300 in a few. He could be really fun to watch.. before he started throwing INTs.

 

https://www.footballdb.com/players/ryan-fitzpatrick-fitzpry01/300-yard-passing-games

 

Fitz just made me laugh sometimes with some of his throws. He was the anti-Tyrod. Hey, take a shot, lob it out there.... why not??? 

[LeGOATski]

Orton?

 

Too bad they couldn't have kept him around...

[John from Riverside]

21 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Orton and Fitzy both had a bunch of 300+ yd games. 

 

Fitz had games of 307, 350, 337, 369 vs New England alone. 

 

Which is why the whole "Tyrod is the best QB the Bills have had since Kelly" notion is absolutely absurd. If anything, they are all at the same level, and the only reason TT is in that group is because he didn't turn the ball over. But he also didn't produce much offense. At least the other guys were trying to make plays. 

 

*Also -- TT needed 5 quarters to throw for 300+. He was around 280 or so at the end of regulation. 

Jesus you and your passing yards to determine the value of a QB

 

Fitzy was also throwing picks at the worst possible times

 

You have to weigh it ALL

[Dadonkadonk]

Ok let's bury this 300 yard game non-sense for good.  

 

TD

INT

TD/INT ratio

Yards/attempt

Comp %

 

All five of the above are more important individual stats than # of 300 yard games.  Overall passer rating is of course a better metric than any individual stat.  

You can also consider QBR as a better metric than yards/game as well as it takes into account successful pass or rush plays by the QB.

 

As you can see below, passing yards has little to no impact on wins.  Throwing TD's and not throwing INT's is the key to winning along with an efficient passing game.

The table below measures the correlation coefficient of certain statistics with wins. The data consists of all quarterbacks who started at least 14 games in a season from 1990 to 2011:

Category	Correlation
ANY/A1	0.55
Passer Rating	0.51
NY/A2	0.50
Touchdown/Attempt	0.44
Yards/Att	0.43
Comp %	0.32
Interceptions/Att	-0.31
Sack Rate	-0.28
Passing Yards	0.16
Attempts	-0.14

As you can see, passer rating is indeed correlated with wins; a correlation coefficient of 0.51 indicates a moderately strong relationship; the two variables (passer rating and wins) are clearly correlated to some degree. Interception rate is also correlated with wins; there is a ‘-‘ sign next to the correlation coefficient because of the negative relationship, but that says nothing about the strength of the relationship. As we would suspect, as interception rate increases, wins decrease. On the other hand, passing yards bears almost no relationships with wins — this is exactly what Alex Smith was talking about last month:

http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

[hondo in seattle]

3 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

Ok let's bury this 300 yard game non-sense for good.  

 

TD

INT

TD/INT ratio

Yards/attempt

Comp %

 

All five of the above are more important individual stats than # of 300 yard games.  Overall passer rating is of course a better metric than any individual stat.  

You can also consider QBR as a better metric than yards/game as well as it takes into account successful pass or rush plays by the QB.

 

As you can see below, passing yards has little to no impact on wins.  Throwing TD's and not throwing INT's is the key to winning along with an efficient passing game.

The table below measures the correlation coefficient of certain statistics with wins. The data consists of all quarterbacks who started at least 14 games in a season from 1990 to 2011:

Category	Correlation
ANY/A1	0.55
Passer Rating	0.51
NY/A2	0.50
Touchdown/Attempt	0.44
Yards/Att	0.43
Comp %	0.32
Interceptions/Att	-0.31
Sack Rate	-0.28
Passing Yards	0.16
Attempts	-0.14

As you can see, passer rating is indeed correlated with wins; a correlation coefficient of 0.51 indicates a moderately strong relationship; the two variables (passer rating and wins) are clearly correlated to some degree. Interception rate is also correlated with wins; there is a ‘-‘ sign next to the correlation coefficient because of the negative relationship, but that says nothing about the strength of the relationship. As we would suspect, as interception rate increases, wins decrease. On the other hand, passing yards bears almost no relationships with wins — this is exactly what Alex Smith was talking about last month:

http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

 

 

This is really Interesting - thanks for posting - but I think the subject needs further study.

 

Teams playing from behind tend to throw more.  This is probably why passing attempts are negatively correlated with winning and passing yards are not strongly correlated with winning.

 

In real life, we know there are times when your running game just isn't delivering the production you need and you have to throw the ball to win.  When that happens, you need a QB who can put up a 300 yard game.  Jim Kelly, for example, could do that.  Tyrod couldn't.  

 

Statistics taken out of context never tell the whole story.

 

Btw, which correlates with winning more:  QBR or passer rating?

 

[Dadonkadonk]

10 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

This is really Interesting - thanks for posting - but I think the subject needs further study.

 

Teams playing from behind tend to throw more.  This is probably why passing attempts are negatively correlated with winning and passing yards are not strongly correlated with winning.

 

In real life, we know there are times when your running game just isn't delivering the production you need and you have to throw the ball to win.  When that happens, you need a QB who can put up a 300 yard game.  Jim Kelly, for example, could do that.  Tyrod couldn't.  

 

Statistics taken out of context never tell the whole story.

 

Btw, which correlates with winning more:  QBR or passer rating?

 

Not sure about the QBR correlation.

Agree every stat needs context.

Jim Kelly is a good counter example arguing in favor of 300 yard games as a good measure for success.  He was 20-9 in games he passed for 300 yards. A 0.68 win percentage which compares favorably to his career win percentage of 0.621.  FYI Brady's career win % is 0.774 and Montana's is 0.711.

 

As for TT vs Kelly.  Take the stats for what they are worth but TT compares favorably to Kelly in QB rating (92.5 to 84.4), comp % (62.6 to 60.1) and INT % (1.3 to 3.7) while Kelly has a higher TD % (5.0 to 4.1).  YPA is nearly identical with Kelly at 7.4 and TT 7.2.  

I liked TT but I think these stats reflect more about the rules of the NFL in the late 80's-90's as compared to current.  While defenses are much more sophisticated and the pre-snap demands of the QB are far greater than 1990, the rules and style of play make it easier to complete a high percentage of safe passes.  

 

 

 

[MJS]

45 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

Ok let's bury this 300 yard game non-sense for good.  

 

TD

INT

TD/INT ratio

Yards/attempt

Comp %

 

All five of the above are more important individual stats than # of 300 yard games.  Overall passer rating is of course a better metric than any individual stat.  

You can also consider QBR as a better metric than yards/game as well as it takes into account successful pass or rush plays by the QB.

 

As you can see below, passing yards has little to no impact on wins.  Throwing TD's and not throwing INT's is the key to winning along with an efficient passing game.

The table below measures the correlation coefficient of certain statistics with wins. The data consists of all quarterbacks who started at least 14 games in a season from 1990 to 2011:

Category	Correlation
ANY/A1	0.55
Passer Rating	0.51
NY/A2	0.50
Touchdown/Attempt	0.44
Yards/Att	0.43
Comp %	0.32
Interceptions/Att	-0.31
Sack Rate	-0.28
Passing Yards	0.16
Attempts	-0.14

As you can see, passer rating is indeed correlated with wins; a correlation coefficient of 0.51 indicates a moderately strong relationship; the two variables (passer rating and wins) are clearly correlated to some degree. Interception rate is also correlated with wins; there is a ‘-‘ sign next to the correlation coefficient because of the negative relationship, but that says nothing about the strength of the relationship. As we would suspect, as interception rate increases, wins decrease. On the other hand, passing yards bears almost no relationships with wins — this is exactly what Alex Smith was talking about last month:

http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

 

I agree with everything here. Tyrod was good at not throwing INT's, but he is was terrible at throwing TD's.

[reddogblitz]

3 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

Which is why the whole "Tyrod is the best QB the Bills have had since Kelly" notion is absolutely absurd. If anything, they are all at the same level, and the only reason TT is in that group is because he didn't turn the ball over. But he also didn't produce much offense. At least the other guys were trying to make plays

 

give me the guy that wins over the guys that were trying to make plays but couldn't all day long.

[row_33]

I want 11 wins in a season

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Fitzy definitely had some.  

[Chandler#81]

10 hours ago, Pete said:

12/24/16 Tyrod went for 329 against Miami.  Is it correct that before that the last 300 yard passer was JP Losman throwing for 340 against Texans 11/19/06?  I realized we have been horrible passing for a long time, but I didn't realize it was that big a draught.  Hopefully whenever Josh gets his shot, he can string together some 300 yard games and bring a new dimension to our offense

In Juron-ese, ‘it’s Hard to throw for 300 yds’ in Buffalo. With these recent scheduling quirks of numerous late season Home Games, I don’t see this changing much..

 

Now, a downtown Dome Stadium may change that..?

[Wayne Cubed]

Fitzy had 7 with the Bills, 2 in 2010, 3 in 2011 and 2 in 2012.

 

Orton had 3 in 2014.

 

[twoandfourteen]

8 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Jesus you and your passing yards to determine the value of a QB

 

Fitzy was also throwing picks at the worst possible times

 

You have to weigh it ALL

 

And Taylor wasn't scoring points or getting first downs at the worst possible times. 

 

What's the difference? 

[twoandfourteen]

5 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

give me the guy that wins over the guys that were trying to make plays but couldn't all day long.

 

It's not like Fitz was 2-14 every year and Tyrod was 13-3. 

 

They were both QB's of middling teams that won between 6-9 games a year. A couple of breaks either way. Really not that big of a difference. They are the same guy -- competent backups that are great to have in the locker room, but shouldn't be full-time starters. 

 

Tyrod Taylor being called "The guy that wins" is hilarious. A couple of nice games against Miami and Tyrod is now "the guy that wins". How about that W-L record when down by a single TD at any point in a game? Maybe you could tell me about all of Tyrod's clutch throws and game-winning drives late in the 4th Quarter? 

 

 The abandonment of reality and absolute lowering of every possible standard when evaluating this player is borderline insulting. 

[YattaOkasan]

8 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

This is really Interesting - thanks for posting - but I think the subject needs further study.

 

Teams playing from behind tend to throw more.  This is probably why passing attempts are negatively correlated with winning and passing yards are not strongly correlated with winning.

 

In real life, we know there are times when your running game just isn't delivering the production you need and you have to throw the ball to win.  When that happens, you need a QB who can put up a 300 yard game.  Jim Kelly, for example, could do that.  Tyrod couldn't.  

 

Statistics taken out of context never tell the whole story.

 

Btw, which correlates with winning more:  QBR or passer rating?

 

Further on your point about any stat out of context doesnt tell the whole story.

 

300 pass yards per game is the perfect example of that statement!!!!!  This stat tells you almost nothing about who won the game.

 

That this line gets thrown around so much is annoying.  Yes Kelly could win you a game through the air and TT could not.  Shouldn't you be able to see that in another stat like TD% as was alluded to?  This 300 pass yards per game needs to die as a metric thats considered to successful QBs.  To the fan of the team it shouldn't mean almost nothing; to fantasy football player it means a lot more.  

[McBean]

And people wonder why we've been awful since Jim Kelly...

[Soda Popinski]

we throw for 300 yds about as often as Detroit has a 100yd rusher. 

[T master]

Bledsoe had some huge passing games for the Bills i think he still holds some records of some sort for the club ??

[row_33]

54 minutes ago, Soda Popinski said:

we throw for 300 yds about as often as Detroit has a 100yd rusher. 

 

but that was like in the early 1990s....

 

oh, i got it.... good one!!  

 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

Further on your point about any stat out of context doesnt tell the whole story.

 

300 pass yards per game is the perfect example of that statement!!!!!  This stat tells you almost nothing about who won the game.

 

That this line gets thrown around so much is annoying.  Yes Kelly could win you a game through the air and TT could not.  Shouldn't you be able to see that in another stat like TD% as was alluded to?  This 300 pass yards per game needs to die as a metric thats considered to successful QBs.  To the fan of the team it shouldn't mean almost nothing; to fantasy football player it means a lot more.  

 

I think throwing for less than 200 yards is more significant than throwing for 300+. That indicates a major deficiency.

 

And again, the fact that Tyrod threw only like 1 TD a game shows a major deficiency.

[Dave in Avon Lake now]

Didn't Brady have 500 yards passing against the Eagles?  The result was a loss.  I liked Tyrod's aversion to throwing interceptions.  He was the anti-Fitz, but come from behind he was not.

[Big Gun]

300 yard passing games matter

[row_33]

23 minutes ago, Dave in Bluffton said:

Didn't Brady have 500 yards passing against the Eagles?  The result was a loss.  I liked Tyrod's aversion to throwing interceptions.  He was the anti-Fitz, but come from behind he was not.

 

i know, his 3 primary receivers were out or maimed and he still racked up 500 yards.

 

 

[Pete]

I like Tyrod and wish him well, but 65 yard passing games does not cut it in the NFL.  I keep being told it is a passing league.  Sure 300 yard games are not  a measure of success.  But they often are a byproduct of winning.    And 8 300 yard passing games(1 JP, 4 Fitz, 3 Kyle, 1 Tyrod) since 2004 is pathetic.

[The_Dude]

300 yards is the threshold for a “good game” for a QB these days and we talk about it as if it’s an elite statistic. What an awful 20 years it’s been. 

[Big Gun]

15 minutes ago, Pete said:

I like Tyrod and wish him well, but 65 yard passing games does not cut it in the NFL.  I keep being told it is a passing league.  Sure 300 yard games are not  a measure of success.  But they often are a byproduct of winning.    And 8 300 yard passing games(1 JP, 4 Fitz, 3 Kyle, 1 Tyrod) since 2004 is pathetic.

and to a certain degree they do show a competence level at playing the position.

 

I mean if a QB can't, won't or is just incapable of passing the ball, what is he good for.

 

Passing the ball for as many yards as possible is part of the requirement of the position, no!

[YattaOkasan]

58 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

I think throwing for less than 200 yards is more significant than throwing for 300+. That indicates a major deficiency.

 

And again, the fact that Tyrod threw only like 1 TD a game shows a major deficiency.

Totally support this.  I think you might find the magic number to 150 yards or so where theres steep drop off.  

 

Taylor throws for 160 and bills win seemed like a pretty common stat line.  I would also not expect a strong negative correlation with <2 TDs, but would with 0 TDs

 

If you think less than 200 yards is a major deficiency I think we should look at the data to see how the win percentages compare.  I got a funny feeling its better than the win % of the 300+ yards.  

 

Also "better correlated" versus "more significant" would the correct term I believe as even yards per game show statistical significance just worse correlation than TD% etc..

[LABILLBACKER]

I want a qb who can occasionally go for 400. We've settled for safe little Tyrod racking up his usual 230 per game. Build the OL, get some dynamic wr's and unleash Allen.

[twoandfourteen]

20 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I want a qb who can occasionally go for 400. We've settled for safe little Tyrod racking up his usual 230 per game. Build the OL, get some dynamic wr's and unleash Allen.

 

"Usual 230" is being a bit generous, haha. Half the time, the guy was under 200. 

 

44 Total Games

Passing Yards

43 games under 300 - 97.7%

38 games under 280 - 86.3%

30 games under 230 - 68.1%

23 games under 200 - 52.2%

16 games under 180 - 36.3%

7 games under 130 - 15.9%

 

Passing TDs

Games with 3 passing TDs: 6 - 13.6%

Games with 2 passing TDs: 7 - 15.9%

Games with 1 passing TD: 19 - 43.1%

Games with 0 passing TD: 12 - 27.2%

 

31 games with 1 or 0 passing TDs - 70.4%

38 games with 2 or fewer passing TDs - 86.3%

 

13 games with 2 or more passing TDs - 29.5%

12 games with 0 passing TDs - 27.7%

 

 

24 games under 230 & 1 or 0 TDs  - 54.4% 

 

 

[Maybe Someday]

20 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

"Usual 230" is being a bit generous, haha. Half the time, the guy was under 200. 

 

44 Total Games

Passing Yards

43 games under 300 - 97.7%

38 games under 280 - 86.3%

30 games under 230 - 68.1%

23 games under 200 - 52.2%

16 games under 180 - 36.3%

7 games under 130 - 15.9%

 

Passing TDs

Games with 3 passing TDs: 6 - 13.6%

Games with 2 passing TDs: 7 - 15.9%

Games with 1 passing TD: 19 - 43.1%

Games with 0 passing TD: 12 - 27.2%

 

31 games with 1 or 0 passing TDs - 70.4%

38 games with 2 or fewer passing TDs - 86.3%

 

13 games with 2 or more passing TDs - 29.5%

12 games with 0 passing TDs - 27.7%

 

 

24 games under 230 & 1 or 0 TDs  - 54.4% 

 

 

When you make that many starts in today’s NFL, it’s almost hard to have less than 200 yards in half of your games. 

 

You have to have a QB that’s at least a threat to throw for 300+ in a game. 

 

I just hope Allen is clutch.  It’s been too long since we’ve had that.  The guy that will make the throw that’s needed when the game is on the line or even to just extend a drive.  The guy that even if we are behind by 2 scores at the start of the 4^th, we all still believe that we have a chance.  I never had that faith in TT.