Josh Allen: Analytics

[Kemp]

2 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Define "a ton".

 

A large number or amount.

 

Which NFL QBs are decidedly more accurate than they were in college?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, Commonsense said:

Comparing a 5 star High School recruit with a JUCO kid that ended up playing at Wyoming. Hackenburg nuked his draft suit with his poor play. Allen improved his stock with a strong Senior Bowl, good combine showing and displaying improved mechanics. 

 

You have now left the Milky Way.

 

......LMAO!!.......chasing down Musk's Tesla on its way to Mars......thinkin' maybe a first name change from WAYNE to BENEDICT is better...NEVER has anything good to offer about BFLO.....some things will never change...SMH........

[billsfan89]

21 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Newton gets the edge, but the difference is not quite as vast as you make it seem.

 

 

Physically they are a bit far apart from each other but it isn't massive (one has a bigger arm and better intangibles the other is faster and has fewer issues with accuracy.) But Cam's college resume is so far ahead of Allen's. Cam's senior year was not only beastly, but it was against the best competition college football could offer. Allen was a pretty good but not dominant QB in a so so conference. 

 

People projected Allen as a top 10 or even top 5 pick because of his insane arm, physical profile (big dude and big hands) and for the fact that Allen is by all accounts has the intangibles. A lot of scouts also weren't scared off by his low completion percentage because of context (Type of offense he played in was more downfield throwing, his WR's weren't the best, and his O-line play was poor.) 

 

But Allen is by far the more raw prospect than Cam was. Allen is the NBA prospect you draft because of how athletic he is despite not having dominance at the college level while Cam is the type of prospect you draft because he was athletic and dominant at the college level. Cam's last college seasons was one of the best of all time and he had the insane physical tools. Watching Cam coming out of college that year he looked like a man among boys and his professional success proved that. 

Edited May 4, 2018 by billsfan89

[Trogdor]

16 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Newton gets the edge, but the difference is not quite as vast as you make it seem.

The problem is that you are using combine stats as evidence. Every single year there are combine MVPs that make themselves looks much better than their actual game play. Newton had a 66.1% cmp 10.2 y/a 30td and 7int for a 182 rating. Add to that another 20 tds and 1500 yards rushing. That's against the best defenses in the country. Even if you want to go with Wentz the numbers aren't even close. Josh Allen may end up being very good, but lets not start making these crazy comparisons with combine numbers. This board has devolved into reposting highlight videos to try and prove how good someone is. Let's just wait and see what happens and not put some crazy expectations on a QB who needs a lot of work and polish. 

[billsfan89]

28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Um RGIII 4.41, not 4.1. 

 

I don't think people are saying he's a physical freak like Cam or had the same college stats against the same level of competition as Cam (there's a reason Cam was pretty much the consensus #1 overall pick).

 

I think the comparisons arise because people see the ability to run some similar offensive elements with Allen as with Newton.

 

 

 

You are correct 4.41 for RGIII. I think the comparisons to Cam are just a bit of a stretch and are only made because of McD's connections to the team Cam Newton plays for. Allen and Newton are both big dudes with rocket arms but beyond that they aren't the most comparable players. 

[Wayne Arnold]

22 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

A large number or amount.

 

Which NFL QBs are decidedly more accurate than they were in college?

 

Probably none. Good thing Allen doesn't need to become "decidedly more accurate."

[Trogdor]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

 

You are correct 4.41 for RGIII. I think the comparisons to Cam are just a bit of a stretch and are only made because of McD's connections to the team Cam Newton plays for. Allen and Newton are both big dudes with rocket arms but beyond that they aren't the most comparable players. 

Using McD, who is a defensive coach, as a link is crazy too. I'm not trying to shoot the messenger because I've seen this too, but Daboll has nothing to do with Cam. We have no idea what type of offense he will run or if he has the ability to modify his system to his players. It's far too soon for a lot of this. 

[DCOrange]

6 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

You are correct 4.41 for RGIII. I think the comparisons to Cam are just a bit of a stretch and are only made because of McD's connections to the team Cam Newton plays for. Allen and Newton are both big dudes with rocket arms but beyond that they aren't the most comparable players. 

Perhaps around here, but Allen has been compared to Cam for two years now. It didn’t begin with any connection to McBeane. 

Edited May 4, 2018 by DCOrange

[Wayne Arnold]

4 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

The problem is that you are using combine stats as evidence. Every single year there are combine MVPs that make themselves looks much better than their actual game play. Newton had a 66.1% cmp 10.2 y/a 30td and 7int for a 182 rating. Add to that another 20 tds and 1500 yards rushing. That's against the best defenses in the country. Even if you want to go with Wentz the numbers aren't even close. Josh Allen may end up being very good, but lets not start making these crazy comparisons with combine numbers. This board has devolved into reposting highlight videos to try and prove how good someone is. Let's just wait and see what happens and not put some crazy expectations on a QB who needs a lot of work and polish. 

 

Ugh - stats from college.

 

Granted, Newton had one of the greatest, most celebrated college football seasons for a quarterback of all-time. But he also got to work with one of the greatest offensive football minds (Malzahn) at Auburn. Very creative, innovative offense that fit his skills perfectly. And he had SEC talent around him.

 

Allen worked in an outdated offense with players who were barely recruited out of high school.

 

Who's posting highlight videos? Not me.

[billsfan89]

Just now, DCOrange said:

Perhaps around here, but Allen has been compared to Cam for two years now.

 

It could be possible that's a comparison that a lot of people are making but I just don't see it. Other than their size and stature combined with a big arm they aren't that alike. Big Ben is a better comparison for Allen in my opinion. 

[Kemp]

12 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Probably none. Good thing Allen doesn't need to become "decidedly more accurate."

 

 

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

It could be possible that's a comparison that a lot of people are making but I just don't see it. Other than their size and stature combined with a big arm they aren't that alike. Big Ben is a better comparison for Allen in my opinion. 

 

I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. Maybe I’m too stuck on what Roethlisberger looks like now versus how he was a team Miami OH but I think the way Allen moves, the ability to make throws without his feet being clean, the way he scrambles around, the way he attacks vertically, is all much more similar to Cam than Ben IMO.

[Trogdor]

2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Ugh - stats from college.

 

Granted, Newton had one of the greatest, most celebrated college football seasons for a quarterback of all-time. But he also got to work with one of the greatest offensive football minds (Malzahn) at Auburn. Very creative, innovative offense that fit his skills perfectly. And he had SEC talent around him.

 

Allen worked in an outdated offense with players who were barely recruited out of high school.

 

Who's posting highlight videos? Not me.

Game play as a comparison makes a lot more sense than hypothetical ones from workouts. Is SEC talent vs SEC talent not the same as MWC talent vs MWC talent? People keep pointing to how bad the players around him were, but it's not like he was playing future NFL defenses. I'd also like to point out that Allen's receivers only dropped 4.8% of their passes and weren't as bad as some people make them out to be. At least two of them ended up being NFL worthy. Again, he might end up being good, but he has done nothing at the college level that would put him on the same level as people they are comparing him to. 

[Wayne Arnold]

9 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

 

 

All the evidence we need!

[Kemp]

10 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

All the evidence we need!

 

Josh Allen was the 73rd ranked passer in college, last season.

 

Edited May 4, 2018 by Kemp

[Wayne Arnold]

17 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Game play as a comparison makes a lot more sense than hypothetical ones from workouts. Is SEC talent vs SEC talent not the same as MWC talent vs MWC talent? People keep pointing to how bad the players around him were, but it's not like he was playing future NFL defenses. I'd also like to point out that Allen's receivers only dropped 4.8% of their passes and weren't as bad as some people make them out to be. At least two of them ended up being NFL worthy. Again, he might end up being good, but he has done nothing at the college level that would put him on the same level as people they are comparing him to. 

 

The comparison was about pure physical features.

 

As for the game play comparison, it's not nearly as simple as SEC talent vs. SEC talent = MWC talent vs. MWC talent, considering Allen was working with mostly freshmen in 2017.

 

As for Allen's receivers, I highly suggest you watch some of those 2017 games on Youtube, especially early on in the season. His receivers truly could not get open. Allen had to attempt passes to freshmen of limited talent who were blanketed by cornerbacks. And the OC had no idea how to scheme them open. It's criminal.

 

That said, Allen performed extremely well in his first season in 2016 and despite having to orchestrate a terrible offense in 2017 was still able to lead Wyoming to a combined 11-3 record (.786 winning percentage) against MWC teams. The four years before Allen arrived? 2-6, 2-6, 3-5, 3-5 (.313 combined winning percentage).

 

4 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Josh Allen was the 73rd ranked passer in college, last season.

 

 

Who needs context? The stats are all you need!!

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2018 by Wayne Arnold

[Kemp]

5 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

The comparison was about pure physical features.

 

As for the game play comparison, it's not nearly as simple as SEC talent vs. SEC talent = MWC talent vs. MWC talent, considering Allen was working with mostly freshmen in 2017.

 

As for Allen's receivers, I highly suggest you watch some of those 2017 games on Youtube, especially early on in the season. His receivers truly could not get open. Allen had to attempt passes to freshmen of limited talent who were blanketed by cornerbacks. And the OC had no idea how to scheme them open. It's criminal.

 

That said, Allen performed extremely well in his first season in 2016 and despite having to orchestrate a terrible offense in 2017 was still able to lead Wyoming to a combined 11-3 record (.786 winning percentage) against MWC teams. The four years before Allen arrived? 2-6, 2-6, 3-5, 3-5 (.313 combined winning percentage).

 

 

Who needs context? The stats are all you need!!

 

 

 

 

Context must mean that you don't like bad results, so let's look for other reasons for failure.

 

His stats are horrific.

 

Those who think he will be a good NFL QB believe so because he can throw it through a brick wall and because of his physique. Is there another reason?

 

He had the same arm and physique in college. You might turn out to be right, but I like my reasons for success/failure better than yours.

 

Hopefully, you're right.

[HappyDays]

48 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

I'd also like to point out that Allen's receivers only dropped 4.8% of their passes and weren't as bad as some people make them out to be.

 

One thing I learned when I dove into his film is that drops were NOT the problem with his surrounding talent. The problem was receivers not getting open. He had a ton of tight window throws. A bunch of the completions he had on deep boundary throws were only caught because of perfect velocity and ball placement. A very small percentage of his TDs came on YAC. He was the only bright spot on offense in 2017.

[Wayne Arnold]

18 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Context must mean that you don't like bad results, so let's look for other reasons for failure.

 

His stats are horrific.

 

Those who think he will be a good NFL QB believe so because he can throw it through a brick wall and because of his physique. Is there another reason?

 

He had the same arm and physique in college. You might turn out to be right, but I like my reasons for success/failure better than yours.

 

Hopefully, you're right.

 

Accomplishments not seen in the football program in 20 years is far from "failure".

 

Context in this case is the entirely different circumstances from which those statistics are generated. Systems, coaches, teammates, etc.

[BarleyNY]

On 5/3/2018 at 2:24 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Josh Allen is big. Carson Wentz is big. Josh Allen can throw far. Wentz can throw far.  Allen went to an obscure College in a northern state where not many people live. Wentz went to an obscure college in a northern state where not many people live. 

 

Thus, Allen = Wentz. Analytics

 

Actually Sashi Brown wanted to draft Wentz but coach Hue Jackson didn’t want him. 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

 

I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. Maybe I’m too stuck on what Roethlisberger looks like now versus how he was a team Miami OH but I think the way Allen moves, the ability to make throws without his feet being clean, the way he scrambles around, the way he attacks vertically, is all much more similar to Cam than Ben IMO.

 

Fair enough, but I think we can agree that we hope Allen is as good as his potential. Allen's biggest issue in my mind is can he refine his footwork and will that improve his accuracy? Improved footwork can help a QB become more accurate but is that enough to make Allen have the touch and accuracy needed to be a successful pro QB. 

 

I think Allen is smart enough to develop his decision making and reading of defenses. But accuracy is something that is hard to improve significantly. Are those other factors regarding Allen's accuracy true (structure of the offense, bad O-line play, and a general lack of talent around him) or is Allen just another Kyle Boller, rocket arm but not accurate enough. 

Edited May 4, 2018 by billsfan89

[T master]

On 5/3/2018 at 11:55 AM, Like A Mofo said:

Question: I hard one draft expert on WGR a few days ago state 'The analytics suggest that Josh Allen will not become a franchise QB'

 

What analytics is he referring to? Anyone know where they are available?

 

Thanks in advance

 

Mel Kiper football expert also said Cordy Glenn wouldn't be a starting LT & was better at RT i don't think the numbers have a lot to do with anything it's just another talking point for TV & blog sights ...

 

I think coaching has a lot more to do with it than numbers !!

Edited May 5, 2018 by T master

[All_Pro_Bills]

I posted this line of reasoning elsewhere on the topic of Allen but nobody has addressed my question.  Everybody is aware of analytics and statistics but Beane/McDermott choose Allen over the safer, more, polished Rosen.  Given the numbers why would they do that?  Are they collectively stupid?  Can't they read charts and reports?  Or perhaps more likely they have a better perspective and firsthand information that somebody just looking at the numbers doesn't have.  Pro or con I suspect nobody here has any perspective better than the Bills GM, coaching, and scouting staffs.  

 

I don't see the comparison to Newton either but I'm looking at it from a different perspective, behavior and attitude.  I guarantee that Allen with not do anything like the childish Superman routine when making a play or punk out on going for the ball if he fumbles in the Super Bowl.  

[billspro]

Wyoming was 8-3 (losses to Iowa, Oregon, and Boise St) with Josh Allen as the starting QB this year, 0-2 without him. 

 

As a Junior Allen went 8-6 (close losses in the championship game and the bowl game to finish the season).

 

Wyoming went 2-10 without Josh Allen in 2015. 

 

With Josh Allen, they went 16-9 Without Josh Allen, they went 2-12. 

 

There is obviously something there that doesn't show up on a throwing statistic stat sheet. 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2018 by billspro

[LeGOATski]

Its clear that he was the only real player they had. 

 

But the knocks on him are accuracy and decision-making.

 

Was he trying to do too much? Probably.

[jr1]

rookies need playing time like Donovan Mitchell in basketball

[GunnerBill]

He was unquestionably Wyoming's best player and possibly their best Quarterback ever. That means little to his chances of NFL success. 

[LeGOATski]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

He was unquestionably Wyoming's best player and possibly their best Quarterback ever. That means little to his chances of NFL success. 

What if they move the Bills to Wyoming?

 

I hear we have a decent fan base there.

[Magox]

Without doubt Allen was a Gamechanger for Wyoming and he almost eeked out a victory vs Boise State.  The throws he was making that game was sick.

 

After now watching every pass he made in 10 of his games, I'm more confident than ever that he's going to end up being our franchise QB.

 

The 56% completion rate stigma he has with some fans does not jive with how accurate of a passer he really is.

 

Sure, he needs some work with his footwork and his short and swing passes tend to be thrown high, but when he is making those 10-35 yard passes he is pretty damn accurate.  And he has that cannon of an arm that allows him to make more game changing plays than just about any other QB.  Not to mention the way he extends plays, his strength and athleticism allow him to have elite capability in that aspect.  And what I love about him is that when he is extending plays he always keeps his head up looking for plays and he loves to go for the kill shot.  He has got that mentality to go for the TD.

 

One more thing, one of the knocks that I heard parroted over and over was that he lacks touch.  To be honest with you I never objected because I hadn't seen that much film on him.  I naturally saw his famed 56% rate and listened to others and naturally assumed that was true.

 

Well.....after watching a bunch of his throws I can confidently say that is bull ****.  When he is throwing it 15+ yards and he decides to take something off his throws he displays lots of touch.  He just needs to improve his short throws.

 

The guy is going to be good.

[CSBill]

41 minutes ago, Magox said:

Without doubt Allen was a Gamechanger for Wyoming and he almost eeked out a victory vs Boise State.  The throws he was making that game was sick.

 

After now watching every pass he made in 10 of his games, I'm more confident than ever that he's going to end up being our franchise QB.

 

The 56% completion rate stigma he has with some fans does not jive with how accurate of a passer he really is.

 

Sure, he needs some work with his footwork and his short and swing passes tend to be thrown high, but when he is making those 10-35 yard passes he is pretty damn accurate.  And he has that cannon of an arm that allows him to make more game changing plays than just about any other QB.  Not to mention the way he extends plays, his strength and athleticism allow him to have elite capability in that aspect.  And what I love about him is that when he is extending plays he always keeps his head up looking for plays and he loves to go for the kill shot.  He has got that mentality to go for the TD.

 

One more thing, one of the knocks that I heard parroted over and over was that he lacks touch.  To be honest with you I never objected because I hadn't seen that much film on him.  I naturally saw his famed 56% rate and listened to others and naturally assumed that was true.

 

Well.....after watching a bunch of his throws I can confidently say that is bull ****.  When he is throwing it 15+ yards and he decides to take something off his throws he displays lots of touch.  He just needs to improve his short throws.

 

The guy is going to be good.

 

Dilly! Dilly!

[JaCrispy]

3 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Its clear that he was the only real player they had. 

 

But the knocks on him are accuracy and decision-making.

 

Was he trying to do too much? Probably.

After going back and watching more video of him, his accuracy doesn’t appear to be as bad as initially thought... in fact it looks pretty good 

[Mickey]

55 minutes ago, Magox said:

Without doubt Allen was a Gamechanger for Wyoming and he almost eeked out a victory vs Boise State.  The throws he was making that game was sick.

 

After now watching every pass he made in 10 of his games, I'm more confident than ever that he's going to end up being our franchise QB.

 

The 56% completion rate stigma he has with some fans does not jive with how accurate of a passer he really is.

 

Sure, he needs some work with his footwork and his short and swing passes tend to be thrown high, but when he is making those 10-35 yard passes he is pretty damn accurate.  And he has that cannon of an arm that allows him to make more game changing plays than just about any other QB.  Not to mention the way he extends plays, his strength and athleticism allow him to have elite capability in that aspect.  And what I love about him is that when he is extending plays he always keeps his head up looking for plays and he loves to go for the kill shot.  He has got that mentality to go for the TD.

 

One more thing, one of the knocks that I heard parroted over and over was that he lacks touch.  To be honest with you I never objected because I hadn't seen that much film on him.  I naturally saw his famed 56% rate and listened to others and naturally assumed that was true.

 

Well.....after watching a bunch of his throws I can confidently say that is bull ****.  When he is throwing it 15+ yards and he decides to take something off his throws he displays lots of touch.  He just needs to improve his short throws.

 

The guy is going to be good.

 

From what I could see, he does fine on short throws and designed screens. Where he had trouble was when he was trying to go downfield but eventually had to decide to dump it off. It seemed like he doesn't always reset his feet for the check down and instead just relied on his ability to flip it out there with his arm alone. He also looked like he was waiting until the very last second before giving up on the downfield routes leaving him in a situation where he really had to rush the check down throw so that there was no time to reset his feet or otherwise  set up for the throw. I think those throws seem so easy that he likely doesn't think it all that important to pay much attention to technique. When the first or even the only read was a short pass such as on screen passes, I didn't see anything unusual in terms of accuracy. There was one particular play, I think it was against Colorado State, he was trying to hit an out-route on the right side about 7-8 yards downfield, it wasn't open but he waited and waited to see if the WR could get some separation. When he finally gave up and decided to toss it to a RB in the flat on the same side, he never reset his feet which remained lined up for the out-route. Instead, he just twisted his torso way around to the right and sure enough, the ball flew over the RB's head and out of bounds.

 

Frankly, I much prefer having to coach an overly bold QB to go to the check down more often to having to coach a timid QB out of going to the check down too often.

[Stank_Nasty]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

He was unquestionably Wyoming's best player and possibly their best Quarterback ever. That means little to his chances of NFL success. 

Taking a a bad team and winning with it might actually say something about his chances though. 

 

Im assuming you’re just being intentionally obtuse here though. 

[Luka]

3 hours ago, Mickey said:

 

From what I could see, he does fine on short throws and designed screens. Where he had trouble was when he was trying to go downfield but eventually had to decide to dump it off. It seemed like he doesn't always reset his feet for the check down and instead just relied on his ability to flip it out there with his arm alone. He also looked like he was waiting until the very last second before giving up on the downfield routes leaving him in a situation where he really had to rush the check down throw so that there was no time to reset his feet or otherwise  set up for the throw. I think those throws seem so easy that he likely doesn't think it all that important to pay much attention to technique. When the first or even the only read was a short pass such as on screen passes, I didn't see anything unusual in terms of accuracy. There was one particular play, I think it was against Colorado State, he was trying to hit an out-route on the right side about 7-8 yards downfield, it wasn't open but he waited and waited to see if the WR could get some separation. When he finally gave up and decided to toss it to a RB in the flat on the same side, he never reset his feet which remained lined up for the out-route. Instead, he just twisted his torso way around to the right and sure enough, the ball flew over the RB's head and out of bounds.

 

Frankly, I much prefer having to coach an overly bold QB to go to the check down more often to having to coach a timid QB out of going to the check down too often.

 

His biggest hurdle is going to be taking what he's given at the next level. I think we see the same things. His accuracy is actually pretty amazing when he sticks to his mechanics. This is most evident on plays where he has a clean pocket and isn't forced off his spot. He can throw a receiver open 40 yards down field. But when he gets forced out or isn't seeing anything downfield he waits until the last second and ends up throwing awkwardly with defenders hanging off of him. The scrambling backwards thing is also a habit that needs to be broken quickly. No yards is better than negative yards. A throw out of bounds is better than an interception. I understand at times you have to take risks but he doesn't seem to have routine plays very often lol.

 

If the Bills can correct this, look out.

[NoSaint]

He’s likely the longest shot to be successful but also the best shot to be great. He’s got tools no one else does but has to overcome some major issues. 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

Allen is that rookie WR you take in your fantasy football draft in rd 4 because you think he could be a gem and your worried somebody else could snag him and is thinking like you. It either makes or breaks your draft.

[FearLess Price]

That was a cool article. Still not a fan of that pick. 

[Like A Mofo]

On 5/5/2018 at 7:50 AM, NoSaint said:

He’s likely the longest shot to be successful but also the best shot to be great. He’s got tools no one else does but has to overcome some major issues. 

 

 

I still think Darnold has the best shot at being great. Allen can be very good or be Leaf.

[Bill_with_it]

On 5/3/2018 at 9:55 AM, Like A Mofo said:

Question: I hard one draft expert on WGR a few days ago state 'The analytics suggest that Josh Allen will not become a franchise QB'

 

What analytics is he referring to? Anyone know where they are available?

 

Thanks in advance

He likely knows nothing. Or atleast doesnt ynderstand the context to which the stats were derived from.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 5/5/2018 at 5:12 AM, CSBill said:

 

Dilly! Dilly!

 

Should that be "Billy! Billy!"?  Too lame?

On 5/7/2018 at 8:27 AM, Like A Mofo said:

I still think Darnold has the best shot at being great. Allen can be very good or be Leaf.

 

I really don't think Leaf is a good comparator at all.  Allen can be very good or be (fill in a number of big-armed QB who worked hard and still just couldn't)

 

As I understand it, Ryan Leaf just had screwed up priorities.  Thought he was all that and a bag of chips having been hailed and feted all the way from high school.

Thought he could be a star NFL QB without really working to master his craft, then couldn't handle the "heat" of criticism.

 

Allen may not succeed, but he certainly wasn't having a praise-fest dunned into him from HS on.  He had to work his way up the food chain and he did.