RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming

[Lurker]

7 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Good lord.

 

Right back at ya.   

 

If you think Allen wasn't a leap of faith by this FO, then I got some nice bridges to sell you.   Every pick is a leap of faith.   Some are the size of the Grand Canyon, others are more managable...

[eball]

1 minute ago, Lurker said:

 

Right back at ya.   

 

If you think Allen wasn't a leap of faith by this FO, then I got some nice bridges to sell you.   Every pick is a leap of faith.   Some are the size of the Grand Canyon, others are more managable...

 

You said blind faith.  Which is absurd.

[Lurker]

21 minutes ago, eball said:

 

You said blind faith.  Which is absurd.

 

Love is blind.   And this FO clearly loves Allen...

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Love is blind.   And this FO clearly loves Allen...

That is a common view and everyone can understand why people believe it.  I think love is often insightful and more discerning than say, apathy or dislike.

[Lurker]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

That is a common view and everyone can understand why people believe it.  I think love is often insightful and more discerning than say, apathy or dislike.

 

Well, since 40% to 50% of married couples in the United States eventually divorce, it's a crap shoot...  

[Tyrod's friend]

2 hours ago, Epstein's Mother said:

 

I have seen this posted by a number of people.  I started thinking about it and I couldn't come up with an example of a QB drafted high that was started too early and it ruined his career.  If you're thinking of some specific examples please share them with me.  I'm not harping on you I just can't think of any.

There aren't any.

Elway: 47% comp rate, 1:2 TD:INT ratio

Namath: 47% Comp rate

Bradshaw 37% comp rate

Manning, P: led the NFL in INTs, 3-13 season

plenty more where that came from.

The only selection against this was Carr ... if you have the ability to play, you will rise above the circumstances of your first year. If you don't, you probably never had the right stuff anyways. 

I'm not worried about failures in the first year. This is one kid that seems pretty resilient. 

[nbbillsfan]

One thing I think is an interesting exercise is to compare the Quarterbacks vs. Their Backups (assuming they got any meaningful playing time). In some ways, I think this is more valuable than comparing the QB's statistically against each other as so much of stats is affected by system, supporting players, coaching ect."

 

Josh Allen:

Passing Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate 1 Josh Allen 152 270 56.3 1812 6.7 6.9 16 6 127.8 2 Nick Smith 40 74 54.1 471 6.4 5.7 2 2 111.0

 

Clearly, Josh Allen outperforms his backup (to be expected...)and both had fairly low. Also, this is from Allen's most recent season (his down season). Wyoming was 0-2 with Nick smith and 8-3 with Allen.

 

Josh Rosen:

Rk	Player	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
1	Josh Rosen	283	452	62.6	3756	8.3	8.5	26	10	147.0
2	Devon Modster	51	79	64.6	671	8.5	9.5	4	0	152.6

 

Interesting to see that Devon Modster (who is a good qb in his own right) had slightly better stats than Rosen. However, UCLA did go 1-3 with Modster as a starter and 5-4 with Rosen.

 

Sam Darnold

Rk	Player	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
1	Sam Darnold	246	366	67.2	3086	8.4	9.0	31	9	161.1
2	Max Browne	58	93	62.4	507	5.5	4.9	2	2	111.0

 

This is from Sam's stellar freshman year, as he played nearly all snaps this past year. He outperfoms former #1 H.S. QB recruit Max Browne by a fairly wide margin. Darnold was my #1 QB in the draft (i think Beane's too) and this helps support that.

 

 

Baker Mayfield

Rk	Player	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
1	Baker Mayfield	285	404	70.5	4627	11.5	12.9	43	6	198.9
2	Kyler Murray	18	21	85.7	359	17.1	20.0	3	0	276.5

 

Obviously a very small sample size as Baker didn't miss much time in his college career. However, every time Murray played he did exceptionally well. Can't help but make you consider if some of Baker's lofty stats have to do with his situation.

 

This exercise would take a lot more consideration, analyzing game logs, considering opponents ect. However, I do think it is interesting that only Josh Allen and Sam Darnold seemed to clearly outperform their backup, albeit Darnold in a more convincing manner.

[BuffaloRush]

I feel like no one listens to Rich The Bull Genzler but he does bring on “The Godfather” If Buffalo Sports Radio Vic Carucci from time to time.  Here he drops knowledge and defends the Bills for drafting Josh Allen.  His main point is - let the pros do their job.  The Bills thought Josh Allen was the better fit.  Most fans and “experts” who were critical on social media really don’t know much about football.  To which Genzler was like “thank you...thank you.”  LOL

 

12 minute segment - the part I reference starts around 1:00

 

http://stationcaster.com/stations/wgrf/media/mp3/Vic_Carucci-1525094720.mp3

Edited April 30, 2018 by BuffaloRush

[CaptnCoke11]

So many fans take these so called ESPN/NFLN analysts words as bible.  It’s kinda sad.  They for their options solely off what those people say.  Also see slog od people referencing these second rate websites like walterfootball and basing their opinions off of that.   

[BadLandsMeanie]

34 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

I feel like no one listens to Rich The Bull Genzler but he does bring on “The Godfather” If Buffalo Sports Radio Vic Carucci from time to time.  Here he drops knowledge and defends the Bills for drafting Josh Allen.  His main point is - let the pros do their job.  The Bills thought Josh Allen was the better fit.  Most fans and “experts” who were critical on social media really don’t know much about football.  To which Genzler was like “thank you...thank you.”  LOL

 

12 minute segment - the part I reference starts around 11:00

 

http://stationcaster.com/stations/wgrf/media/mp3/Vic_Carucci-1525094720.mp3

You mean around 1:00  (One minute) Not at 11 minutes.

[DCBills_OG]

While I understand these ESPN/NFLN analysts aren't the "end all be all" of knowledge regarding a player and his bust/boom potential.....they do boast a higher percentage of being right than they do being of being wrong about players....hence my my proclivity for listening to and taking just a little bit of stock in their criticisms......

[BrotherChazz]

Fans have enough trouble agreeing on if a player is any good AFTER he plays, let along before he even puts on a uniform. It's all silly. 

[DriveFor1Outta5]

People in modern society really struggle with interpreting the meaning of opinions. Everyone is entitled to their opinion regarding Josh Allen at this point. There is no right or wrong answer. Beane, Vic Carucci, and everyone on this board actually have no idea how Allen’s career will turn out. Shutting down others opinions at this point is ignorant.  No one is right or wrong. Sadly, people like Carucci feel the need to assert their beliefs as being the truth of those who are intellectually superior.  

Edited April 30, 2018 by DriveFor1Outta5

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, DCBills_OG said:

While I understand these ESPN/NFLN analysts aren't the "end all be all" of knowledge regarding a player and his bust/boom potential.....they do boast a higher percentage of being right than they do being of being wrong about players....hence my my proclivity for listening to and taking just a little bit of stock in their criticisms......

 

Do they?  I would love to see an objective assessment of their percentage.  Heck, get me the data - get me 4 years of Mayock or Kiper or whoevers drafts from at least 2 years ago (eg 2012-2016 or older) and I'll do the assessment myself and put it out here, and on anyone's blog that is willing to host it.

 

I don't think it's that high a percentage, myself.  When they gush about Jamarcus Russell or Blaine Gabbert or Jimmy Clausen or Johnny Manziel or Ryan Leaf, no one knocks on their door 2 years later and asks them to clean out their office. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do they?  I would love to see an objective assessment of their percentage.  Heck, get me the data - get me 4 years of Mayock or Kiper or whoevers drafts from at least 2 years ago (eg 2012-2016 or older) and I'll do the assessment myself.

 

I don't think it's that high a percentage, myself.  When they gush about Jamarcus Russell or Blaine Gabbert or Jimmy Clausen or Johnny Manziel, no one knocks on their door 2 years later and asks them to clean out their office. 

There was some data on here before the draft and showed some of these guys are really not that great. If someone can dig it up I'd like to see it myself.

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do they?  I would love to see an objective assessment of their percentage.  Heck, get me the data - get me 4 years of Mayock or Kiper or whoevers drafts from at least 2 years ago (eg 2012-2016 or older) and I'll do the assessment myself.

 

I don't think it's that high a percentage, myself.  When they gush about Jamarcus Russell or Blaine Gabbert or Jimmy Clausen or Johnny Manziel, no one knocks on their door 2 years later and asks them to clean out their office. 

By that same token, the majority of the GMs in the NFL don't have 10 years of their boards under scrutiny. 

 

Do you think if Doug Whaley was on TV next to Mayock for 10 years he'd be substantially better? I don't.

2 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

There was some data on here before the draft and showed some of these guys are really not that great. If someone can dig it up I'd like to see it myself.

You know who else isn't that great? Just about every GM in the NFL.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, jmc12290 said:

By that same token, the majority of the GMs in the NFL don't have 10 years of their boards under scrutiny. 

Do you think if Doug Whaley was on TV next to Mayock for 10 years he'd be substantially better? I don't.

 

I think if I had to listen to Doug Whaley on TV for 10 years I would do something self-destructive, highly irresponsible, or throw the TV out the window.  Or all 3.

 

Seriously, the undiscussed "elephant in the room" is all the resources that teams put into scouting players and building their draft board.  I would be surprised if any of these media draft pundits have 1/10 the resources that an NFL team puts into it - why should they?  They're for entertainment, it's a GMs bread-and-butter.  So even if a guy is knowledgeable, has an eye for talent, and puts some serious daily effort into watching available games and maybe gets coaches film - it's still only a fraction of the boots-on-the-floor and time and effort a pro team has, and the results reflect that.  So no, I don't think he'd be substantially better, but there's a reason for that.

[YoloinOhio]

15 minutes ago, DCBills_OG said:

While I understand these ESPN/NFLN analysts aren't the "end all be all" of knowledge regarding a player and his bust/boom potential.....they do boast a higher percentage of being right than they do being of being wrong about players....hence my my proclivity for listening to and taking just a little bit of stock in their criticisms......

A lot of them like him too, so need to take them all into account 

[DCBills_OG]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do they?  I would love to see an objective assessment of their percentage.  Heck, get me the data - get me 4 years of Mayock or Kiper or whoevers drafts from at least 2 years ago (eg 2012-2016 or older) and I'll do the assessment myself and put it out here, and on anyone's blog that is willing to host it.

 

I don't think it's that high a percentage, myself.  When they gush about Jamarcus Russell or Blaine Gabbert or Jimmy Clausen or Johnny Manziel or Ryan Leaf, no one knocks on their door 2 years later and asks them to clean out their office. 

higher percentage is different than high percentage.  I did not say they had a high percentage with regards to being correct on boom/bust status.  I said they have a "higher precentage" of being correct versus being wrong.  That could be 51% correct and 49% wrong......

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, DCBills_OG said:

higher percentage is different than high percentage.  I did not say they had a high percentage with regards to being correct on boom/bust status.  I said they have a "higher precentage" of being correct versus being wrong.  That could be 51% correct and 49% wrong......

 

DC, 51% correct would actually be a very high percentage, a higher percentage than most GMs.  Overall, at the top 5-6 picks of the draft, you get something like 50% success, by the end of the 1st/top of the 2nd it falls to 30%, by the 5th round more like 10%.

[Lurker]

41 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

Most fans and “experts” who were critical on social media really don’t know much about football.  

 

I don't know, Vic saying that is like the pot calling the kettle black.     It doesn't take a PhD to critique football player skill sets, coaching decisions or journalism for that matter.   

 

Watching and attending games for decades provides a pretty good education in what's effective, what isn't and how mistakes are repeated over and over by generations of 'professional' front office and coaching staff personnel--who supposedly do know much about football.   

 

There are plenty of knowledgeable non-professionals who can and do have valid points on Allen.    To shovel those negative opinions into the "don't know much about football" dustbin is downright insulting...

 

 

 

 

[Success]

No one knows a small fraction of what the actual scouting community knows.  We watch YouTube and read mocks for a few months and think we have a handle on it, but scouts breathe this stuff every day, all year.

[TheFunPolice]

Everyone says they want the front office to identify a guy and go get him, so they did.

 

Now let's see if it works

[Wily Dog]

I have noticed that our "experts " from  TBD have been strangely silent since the draft. They were down on Allen and maybe thats the reason for it.

[BringBackOrton]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think if I had to listen to Doug Whaley on TV for 10 years I would do something self-destructive, highly irresponsible, or throw the TV out the window.  Or all 3.

 

Seriously, the undiscussed "elephant in the room" is all the resources that teams put into scouting players and building their draft board.  I would be surprised if any of these media draft pundits have 1/10 the resources that an NFL team puts into it - why should they?  They're for entertainment, it's a GMs bread-and-butter.  So even if a guy is knowledgeable, has an eye for talent, and puts some serious daily effort into watching available games and maybe gets coaches film - it's still only a fraction of the boots-on-the-floor and time and effort a pro team has, and the results reflect that.  So no, I don't think he'd be substantially better, but there's a reason for that.

Well then the major knock that "Mayock never worked for a team's FO!"  is kinda silly then, isn't it?

 

Seeing as we never get a teams board, it's impossible to do a real comparison anyway.  The real elephant in the room is that Darnold may have been the #1 player on 30 teams' draft boards, and if he busts, only one team will get grief for it.  

Edited April 30, 2018 by jmc12290

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, jmc12290 said:

Well then the major knock that "Mayock never worked for a team's FO!"  is kinda silly then, isn't it?

 

Since that's not my knock, that's a straw man to me.  I don't think you have to have worked for an NFL FO to know something about football or to evaluate a guy.

5 minutes ago, Wily Dog said:

I have noticed that our "experts " from  TBD have been strangely silent since the draft. They were down on Allen and maybe thats the reason for it.

 

 "Whatchutalkinabout, Dog?"  Plenty of folks here opining.  Most of the folks I regard as experts right here to be found.

[Lurker]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do they?  I would love to see an objective assessment of their percentage. 

 

Here's a report card from last year:    https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/1/15493170/grading-the-2017-nfl-mock-drafts-judgment-day-for-kiper-mcshay-mayock

[jrober38]

On 4/28/2018 at 10:05 PM, Need4speed12000 said:

Well I would love to see you tell Brett Favre  that who incidentally only had a 52% pass completion in college......

People keep knocking this guy for his accuracy during college. He didn’t have the best receivers in the world on his team so cut him some slack. If you want to compare college stats, let me just point you to Brett Favre who had a measly 52% pass completion during his college years and look what he did in the nfl. Don’t write this kid off just yet. Sure he needs some work and experience in the nfl. But I guarantee this kid will blossom into something really special. Something we have been waiting for since Kelly retired.....

 

If you have one guy to "point to" over the past 25 years your argument doesn't make any sense. 

 

Josh Allen was a mediocre college player. The odds of him becoming an elite NFL QB are not good. 

[Wily Dog]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Since that's not my knock, that's a straw man to me.  I don't think you have to have worked for an NFL FO to know something about football or to evaluate a guy.

 

 "Whatchutalkinabout, Dog?"  Plenty of folks here opining.  Most of the folks I regard as experts right here to be found.

Not talking about you Hapless, you are always on . 

[BuffaloRebound]

I have no idea if Allen was the right pick, but Beane and McDermott know a lot more about football than I ever will.  They broke a 17 year playoff drought in their 1st year in Buffalo.  I don’t consider myself a mindless sheep, but they certainly deserve the benefit of the doubt more than any previous Bills regime this century.  

[jrober38]

The bust rate for 1st round QBs is far to high to ask people to shut up and "let the pros do their jobs". 

[BringBackOrton]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Since that's not my knock, that's a straw man to me.  I don't think you have to have worked for an NFL FO to know something about football or to evaluate a guy.

 

 "Whatchutalkinabout, Dog?"  Plenty of folks here opining.  Most of the folks I regard as experts right here to be found.

Sorry, I added.

 

 

Seeing as we never get a teams board, it's impossible to do a real comparison anyway.  The real elephant in the room is that Darnold may have been the #1 player on 30 teams' draft boards, and if he busts, only one team will get grief for it.  

[Paulus]

ARRON MAYBIN < ORAKPO

WHITNER< NGATA

 

I mean, Bills' fans have kind of been right with regards to who the Bills should draft... 

 

Yes, this is a different FO, but it is still the same team. Perhaps, fans and "experts" are sometimes on to something. Not that this is the case here, but it might just become another example of the BIlls FO thinking they are smarter than everyone else and again being wrong. 

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

If you have one guy to "point to" over the past 25 years your argument doesn't make any sense. 

 

Josh Allen was a mediocre college player. The odds of him becoming an elite NFL QB are not good. 

I'll agree, with the qualification that the odds of any of these QBs that get drafted achieving that status are not good. 42 first round QBs from 2000 thru 2017, and just 4 of them played in a SuperBowl. After evaluating all these QBs , why do you believe the Bills ( and reportedly AZ) liked Allen more than Rosen ? It doesn't seem that NFL personnel execs value/ think of these draft picks in the same way fans do. 

[BillsFan2313]

23 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

If you have one guy to "point to" over the past 25 years your argument doesn't make any sense. 

 

Josh Allen was a mediocre college player. The odds of him becoming an elite NFL QB are not good. 

 

Matt Stafford was 57.1% in his college career, at Georgia, with elite talent around him. Oh yeah, I forgot, he was barely over 60% for 1 year, so we can't compare them. Guaranteed Josh Allen doesn't throw for at least 60% if he returned to start for a 3rd year? 

 

Matt Ryans college numbers were pretty mediocre, excluding maybe 1 year, in which he even threw 19 ints and had a completion % less than 60

Edited April 30, 2018 by BillsFan2313

[Wily Dog]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I have no idea if Allen was the right pick, but Beane and McDermott know a lot more about football than I ever will.  They broke a 17 year playoff drought in their 1st year in Buffalo.  I don’t consider myself a mindless sheep, but they certainly deserve the benefit of the doubt more than any previous Bills regime this century.  

I totally agree !!! Opinions are like ##sholes, everybody has one. But the Negatively gets me.

[hondo in seattle]

Griping and Monday morning quarterbacking are part of being a fan.   In fact, it's part of the fun.  

 

But I do object to the arrogance of some fans who are convinced they are smarter than Brandon Bean and his entire staff of scouts.

 

Collectively our Bills scouts have spent thousands of hours evaluating this draft class, interviewing players; talking to coaches, family and friends; studying tape; and so on.  

 

And yet Biff from Cheektowaga - who has no training as scout, didn't attend the combine, has never seen any of these players in person, and didn't spend millions of dollars on due diligence grandiosely pronounces Beane an incompetent idiot for choosing X.    It can be a little hard to swallow sometimes. 

 

These kinds of comments are offensive to the professionals.  Think about your own profession and how ridiculous it can be to have people who don't know crap give you advice or pronounce judgment in your area of expertise.  

 

Beane is much smarter about football than Biff, whatever pretensions Biff may have.  The question is whether Beane is smarter than the other NFL GMs.  We'll be able to intelligently judge that over time by seeing what kind of roster he builds.  

 

 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by hondo in seattle

[greeneblitz]

10 minutes ago, Paulus said:

ARRON MAYBIN < ORAKPO

WHITNER< NGATA

 

I mean, Bills' fans have kind of been right with regards to who the Bills should draft... 

 

Yes, this is a different FO, but it is still the same team. Perhaps, fans and "experts" are sometimes on to something. Not that this is the case here, but it might just become another example of the BIlls FO thinking they are smarter than everyone else and again being wrong. 

This is dumb, your glossing over "Yes, this is a different FO", that's all that matters, this Front office and Coaching staff have earned the benefit of the doubt, they've made nothing but great moves that ended the drought in one season, did a complete turnover of the roster and fixed the salary cap.

[Wily Dog]

4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

Griping and Monday morning quarterbacking are part of being a fan.   In fact, it's part of the fun.  

 

But I do object to the arrogance of some fans who are convinced they are smarter than Brandon Bean and his entire staff of scouts.

 

Collectively our Bills scouts have spent thousands of hours evaluating this draft class, interviewing players; talking to coaches, family and friends; studying tape; and so on.  

 

And yet Biff from Cheektowaga - who has no training as scout, didn't attend the combine, has never seen any of these players in person, and didn't spend millions of dollars on due diligence grandiosely pronounces Beane an incompetent idiot for choosing X.    It can be a little hard to swallow sometimes. 

 

These kinds of comments are offensive to the professionals.  Think about your own profession and how ridiculous it can be to have people who don't know crap give you advice or pronounce judgment in your area of expertise.  

 

Beane is much smarter about football than Biff, whatever pretensions Biff may have.  The question is whether Beane is smarter than the other NFL GMs.  We'll be able to intelligently judge that over time by seeing what kind of roster he builds.  

 

 

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, greeneblitz said:

This is dumb, your glossing over "Yes, this is a different FO", that's all that matters, this Front office and Coaching staff have earned the benefit of the doubt, they've made nothing but great moves that ended the drought in one season, did a complete turnover of the roster and fixed the salary cap.

Two great posts, Couldn't agree more.

[Boatdrinks]

29 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

The bust rate for 1st round QBs is far to high to ask people to shut up and "let the pros do their jobs". 

What does that tell you ? It's an inexact science that even the pros don't get right a large percentage of the time, because there are no absolutes. It's impossible to predict  because the game at that level is so different. And the human factor: guys flame out for all sorts of reasons that are not predictable because we can't see the future. Yes, it's silly to say a paid pro in the NFL is " dumb". Those folks should be called out, because that's an ignorant take. Fans may not agree with a lot of these picks, but pretending you can do a lot better is asinine because virtually no one in the NFL does. You would own the NFL if you could do better by a statistically significant margin over a period of time. 

Edited April 30, 2018 by Boatdrinks