RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming

[leonbus23]

Worried about Allen's accuracy

Edited April 29, 2018 by leonbus23

[Bangarang]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Look, I'm not trying to change your mind at all because I agree that only Allen's play will be the proof in the pudding, but I did find it incredibly interesting that Trent Dilfer (the guy that does the elite 11 camp and works with a ton of the top QBs in the draft) said that the only guys he saw throw like this kid were Elway & Favre. If those are the only 2 names he could come up with that's pretty much generational talent imo.

 

It wasn’t until we picked him that I started seeing him being labeled as a generational talent by Bills fans. As a matter of fact, I don’t think I’ve seen him described as one by anyone else.

[Prickly Pete]

 

Maybe I have missed it, but who do the Allen-Haters compare him to? Who is the failed QB that Allen fits the mold of?

 

Then we can tear into that comparison...

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

19 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

From a soul and science episode?  He had good things to say about each participant in the entire series and that includes the other Allen named Kyle.  Doesn't mean much in that context. 

Nah, from the Eisen interview

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Nah, from the Eisen interview

 

Still related to the Soul and Science series. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

23 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

If only they merged all of Allen  redundant threads it would be easier to converse as a community 

 

you mean the annoying were doomed, Beane is an idiot and Allen is a horrible person threads.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

36 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

From a soul and science episode?  He had good things to say about each participant in the entire series and that includes the other Allen named Kyle.  Doesn't mean much in that context. 

I think he is referring to a longer interview on the Rich Eisen show.  It's posted in one of these threads.  I'm surprised you weren't the one to post it, actually

 

I see BuffaloHokie13 clarified this above. . . 

Edited April 29, 2018 by Dr. Who

[BuffaloHokie13]

16 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

It wasn’t until we picked him that I started seeing him being labeled as a generational talent by Bills fans. As a matter of fact, I don’t think I’ve seen him described as one by anyone else.

I just find the difference in perspective between the people who have worked with him hands on and the analytics folks super intriguing, and obviously I'm hoping for the best.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

I think he is referring to a longer interview on the Rich Eisen show.  It's posted in one of these threads.  I'm surprised you weren't the one to post it, actually

 

I see BuffaloHokie13 clarified this above. . . 

 

I did post it in the Soul and Science thread before it debuted. 

[njbuff]

20 minutes ago, OJABBA said:

 

Maybe I have missed it, but who do the Allen-Haters compare him to? Who is the failed QB that Allen fits the mold of?

 

Then we can tear into that comparison...

 

 

You get people who compare him to EJ Manuel......... EJ MANUEL, which is the most laughable thing I will ever hear.

 

Allen has more talent in his sleep that Manuel can ever dream of having.

[Prickly Pete]

Just now, njbuff said:

 

You get people who compare him to EJ Manuel......... EJ MANUEL, which is the most laughable thing I will ever hear.

 

Allen has more talent in his sleep that Manuel can ever dream of having.

 

Yeah, I think that comparison would be quickly dismantled.

 

[njbuff]

5 minutes ago, OJABBA said:

 

Yeah, I think that comparison would be quickly dismantled.

 

 

For starters, Manuel was a third round prospect who the Bills reached for in 2013 and Allen was big time on McDermott's radar the second he became HC of the Buffalo Bills.

 

That is just one huge difference.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Hard to say that with arm strength only a part of the equation that leads to greatness at the NFL level.  There is so much more beyond that as you already know.

Agreed. Mayock referred to Allen as having " crazy arm talent". That's great, but it's not the same as being a generational talent at QB. That's an Andrew Luck, and as you pointed out there's more to that equation. We know that virtually no one saw a Luck in this draft. We all hope as Bills fans that we got the right " Josh. " and the best QB available . 

Edited April 29, 2018 by Boatdrinks

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I just find the difference in perspective between the people who have worked with him hands on and the analytics folks super intriguing, and obviously I'm hoping for the best.

 

Roght now, I give the advantage to the analytics guys.

[26CornerBlitz]

28 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Roght now, I give the advantage to the analytics guys.

 

John Dorsey, Steve Keim among 2018 NFL draft winners

LOSERS

Analytics: First off, good for PFF’s Steve Palazzolo, who was on the Baker-Mayfield-to-Browns train from the beginning. Mayfield was far and away PFF’s top quarterback, at a time when many mainstream analysts were disagreeing. If nothing else, it helps legitimize their process, which is admittedly a work in progress. Not all NFL teams, however, seemed to be making the kind of suave, next-generation moves befitting of the analytic wave. Gettleman, for one, hands a heap of guaranteed money to the least reliable position in the NFL—a person who will almost certainly exit his athletic prime by the end of this rookie deal. Sean Payton gave up a future first-rounder to move up for a defensive end. The Bills took a quarterback described this way by Football Outsiders:

Last year, Wyoming finished 119th in passing S&P+ out of 130 teams in FBS. That will be the lowest rank ever for a quarterback chosen in the top 100 picks of the NFL draft. Yes, I know, Allen wasn’t playing with a bunch of NFL-bound talent around him. He also wasn’t facing a lot of NFL-bound talent on defense. The average opponent faced by Wyoming ranked just 83.5 in pass defense S&P+. Allen’s performance against top opponents was brutal. He threw two picks with no touchdowns against Iowa, with just 4.35 yards per attempt. He completed just 9-of-24 passes with 64 yards and a pick against Oregon. He completed 44 percent of passes with two picks and only 131 yards against Boise State.

 

Projecting Allen

Mean Projection in Years 3-5:	-83 DYAR
Bust (< 500 DYAR)	62.7%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR)	20.7%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR)	11.5%
Elite (>2500 DYAR)	5.2%

 

Like Darnold, Allen was only a two-year starter in college. But Allen's statistics are horrifying compared to Darnold's.

Allen has an obscenely powerful arm, but it's a howitzer without a targeting system. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes last year. Here is the list of quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 picks since 2005 despite having a completion rate below 58 percent in their final college season: Andrew Walter (2005), Jake Locker (2011), Christian Hackenberg (2016), Connor Cook (2016) and C.J. Beathard (2017). That's it.

 

Since 1997, there have been 27 quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 with QBASE ratings below zero. The best of these quarterbacks was either Josh McCown or Brian Griese. It's a terrible group of quarterback busts. Negative-QBASE passers chosen in the first round include Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman and Patrick Ramsey.

 

Allen supporters talk about how his 2016 season was much better than his 2017 season, and it was. In 2016, Wyoming finished 52nd in passing S&P+. Allen still couldn't complete more than 56.0 percent of his passes. If we pretend Allen's 2017 season never happened, then Allen has a QBASE of 161, still the worst of this year's top prospects.

Edited April 30, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[JM57]

2 hours ago, OJABBA said:

 

Maybe I have missed it, but who do the Allen-Haters compare him to? Who is the failed QB that Allen fits the mold of?

 

Then we can tear into that comparison...

 

Kyle Boller is one you hear when talking about arm strength/accuracy only. Also heard Jake Locker or Jay Cutler. 

[LEBills]

6 minutes ago, JM57 said:

Kyle Boller is one you hear when talking about arm strength/accuracy only. Also heard Jake Locker or Jay Cutler. 

Boller’s completion percentage was worse than Allen’s.

 

Locker is a better comparison, though he was done in after only a few years in the NFL due to injuries.

 

Cutler is the best comparison, imo. Played on an overmatched team, similar completion percentage with a huge arm. And he would have been a really good QB in this league if he didn’t have such a sh*t personality.

[SouthNYfan]

3 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Boller’s completion percentage was worse than Allen’s.

 

Locker is a better comparison, though he was done in after only a few years in the NFL due to injuries.

 

Cutler is the best comparison, imo. Played on an overmatched team, similar completion percentage with a huge arm. And he would have been a really good QB in this league if he didn’t have such a sh*t personality.

 

Yeah.

Cutler was actually not a bad QB, just a complete loser of a personality, and honestly didn't look like he gave a crap.

 

[OldTimer1960]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

John Dorsey, Steve Keim among 2018 NFL draft winners

LOSERS

Analytics: First off, good for PFF’s Steve Palazzolo, who was on the Baker-Mayfield-to-Browns train from the beginning. Mayfield was far and away PFF’s top quarterback, at a time when many mainstream analysts were disagreeing. If nothing else, it helps legitimize their process, which is admittedly a work in progress. Not all NFL teams, however, seemed to be making the kind of suave, next-generation moves befitting of the analytic wave. Gettleman, for one, hands a heap of guaranteed money to the least reliable position in the NFL—a person who will almost certainly exit his athletic prime by the end of this rookie deal. Sean Payton gave up a future first-rounder to move up for a defensive end. The Bills took a quarterback described this way by Football Outsiders:

Last year, Wyoming finished 119th in passing S&P+ out of 130 teams in FBS. That will be the lowest rank ever for a quarterback chosen in the top 100 picks of the NFL draft. Yes, I know, Allen wasn’t playing with a bunch of NFL-bound talent around him. He also wasn’t facing a lot of NFL-bound talent on defense. The average opponent faced by Wyoming ranked just 83.5 in pass defense S&P+. Allen’s performance against top opponents was brutal. He threw two picks with no touchdowns against Iowa, with just 4.35 yards per attempt. He completed just 9-of-24 passes with 64 yards and a pick against Oregon. He completed 44 percent of passes with two picks and only 131 yards against Boise State.

 

Projecting Allen

Mean Projection in Years 3-5:	-83 DYAR
Bust (< 500 DYAR)	62.7%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR)	20.7%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR)	11.5%
Elite (>2500 DYAR)	5.2%

 

Like Darnold, Allen was only a two-year starter in college. But Allen's statistics are horrifying compared to Darnold's.

Allen has an obscenely powerful arm, but it's a howitzer without a targeting system. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes last year. Here is the list of quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 picks since 2005 despite having a completion rate below 58 percent in their final college season: Andrew Walter (2005), Jake Locker (2011), Christian Hackenberg (2016), Connor Cook (2016) and C.J. Beathard (2017). That's it.

26CB, I’m sure that you’ve watched Allen college video, as have I.  I am SURE that Rosen is MUCH more ready to play now than Allen, but what I took from Allen’s video is that he was desperately trying to carry an undertalented team and he was not in optimal position to maximize his completion %, yet he took the risks to try to will his team to a win.  I am willing to take a chance on that upside.  Would I have preferred Rosen?  Yes, because I am conservative by nature, but I can see how Allen could be a star (or a bust).

[26CornerBlitz]

5 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

26CB, I’m sure that you’ve watched Allen college video, as have I.  I am SURE that Rosen is MUCH more ready to play now than Allen, but what I took from Allen’s video is that he was desperately trying to carry an undertalented team and he was not in optimal position to maximize his completion %, yet he took the risks to try to will his team to a win.  I am willing to take a chance on that upside.  Would I have preferred Rosen?  Yes, because I am conservative by nature, but I can see how Allen could be a star (or a bust).

 

Classic Boom or Bust prospect as stated previously.  He has raw tools that need quite a bit of refinement in order for him to excel in the NFL, but the mental aspects of the game are where he needs even more work with hard coaching and time on task.  It will require patience. 

Edited April 30, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[mead107]

What mental aspects? 

[26CornerBlitz]

8 minutes ago, mead107 said:

What mental aspects? 

 

Pre and post snap reads to decipher coverage that will only get more challenging at the NFL level.  Knowing when to stand in the pocket and when to bail.  Throwing with anticipation on a consistent basis. 

Edited April 30, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[No Cease Fires]

I think maybe FO should actually watch some of Allen's 2017 starts. He wasn't carrying the team. He WAS the team. No running game except what he generated. Bare minimum of an offensive line. And his mechanics were improved over 2016 despite the poor stats. 

[OldTimer1960]

13 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Classic Boom or Bust prospect as stated previously.  He has raw tools that need quite a bit of refinement in order for him to excel in the NFL, but the mental aspects of the game are where he needs even more work with hard coaching and time on task.  It will require patience. 

Absolutely agree.  I hope that he receives the required patience from fans and media.  No QB would look good in this year’s offense.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Absolutely agree.  I hope that he receives the required patience from fans and media.  No QB would look good in this year’s offense.

 

Hopefully they put him in the QB "Crock Pot" to let him simmer and It's not a good supporting cast on paper to put things mildly.   If they bring him in faster than expected, they'll have to lean on the run game quite a bit with Shady and give him easy pre-defined reads to ease him in.  Hoping for the best. 

[benderbender]

The only thing Allen needs to do is be more productive than Tyrod, when called upon, and he’s a success. You’re welcome to measure his inseam and debate the statistics of his wins in beer pong until the season starts. In fact I encourage it. It seems forever until September. 

[Lurker]

Ummm....

 

 

Full game for those with strong stomachs:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdVzNkdgTGU

 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by Lurker

[nedboy7]

59 minutes ago, benderbender said:

The only thing Allen needs to do is be more productive than Tyrod, when called upon, and he’s a success. You’re welcome to measure his inseam and debate the statistics of his wins in beer pong until the season starts. In fact I encourage it. It seems forever until September. 

 

Giving up 2 second round picks to get a QB more productive than TT is not success. 

[PIZ]

 

 

[nedboy7]

Not sure how you reason that some imagined future potential in a guy leads to a smarter pick than current proven talent.  Especially when you compare the conferences they play in.  Hopefully the strongest arm learns all the other dimensions of being a great QB.  If he does not become great, the price paid will be a complete waste just like Watkins. 

[CajunBillsBacker]

49 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Ummm....

 

 

Full game for those with strong stomachs:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdVzNkdgTGU

 

 

 

Name one QB who hasn’t overthrown a receiver or thrown into good coverage?

 

i saw a lot of pocket collapsing and Allen running for his life and making plays with his feet.

[Fadingpain]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

26CB, I’m sure that you’ve watched Allen college video, as have I.  I am SURE that Rosen is MUCH more ready to play now than Allen, but what I took from Allen’s video is that he was desperately trying to carry an undertalented team and he was not in optimal position to maximize his completion %, yet he took the risks to try to will his team to a win.  I am willing to take a chance on that upside.  Would I have preferred Rosen?  Yes, because I am conservative by nature, but I can see how Allen could be a star (or a bust).

No offense, but the highlighted text is just fictional garbage.  You're living in your own dream world.

 

Know what my belief is as to why Allen's stats were so poor?  He's not very good.

 

It's simple.  Don't make it hard.

 

 

[dickleyjones]

2 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

No offense, but the highlighted text is just fictional garbage.  You're living in your own dream world.

 

Know what my belief is as to why Allen's stats were so poor?  He's not very good.

 

It's simple.  Don't make it hard.

 

 

either one of you may be correct.

[mannc]

15 minutes ago, CajunBillsBacker said:

Name one QB who hasn’t overthrown a receiver or thrown into good coverage?

 

i saw a lot of pocket collapsing and Allen running for his life and making plays with his feet.

Boise State is massively more talented than Wyoming and they are 92-4 at home since 2000.  How would Darnold have done in his shoes?

[Juice_32]

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

Ummm....

 

 

Full game for those with strong stomachs:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdVzNkdgTGU

 

 

 

 

Funny, I just watched the first half of the Boise game and it made me feel better about Allen. His line was trash and his receivers had zero separation. 

 

He actually made one of the best throws I've ever seen at 1:15.

 

 

[CajunBillsBacker]

Just now, mannc said:

Boise State is massively more talented than Wyoming and they are 92-4 at home since 2000.  How would Darnold have done in his shoes?

That’s what I was thinking too. Boise is always pretty good at home and for Wyoming to keep it as close as they did wasn’t bad.

i saw a lot of WYO’s line getting destroyed and Allen having to run around and make plays with his feet. He juked the hell out of one guy in the middle of that video. He threw two interceptions, but he also threw some nice passes.

[Lurker]

45 minutes ago, CajunBillsBacker said:

Name one QB who hasn’t overthrown a receiver or thrown into good coverage?

 

i saw a lot of pocket collapsing and Allen running for his life and making plays with his feet.

 

LOL.  Even the announcers were talking about his bad mechanics.   It's like, "Boy, we know this guy is an NFL prospect.  But he throwing off his back foot too much..."  (at the 1 hour 49 minute 50 second mark)

 

This is Allen in a nutshell.   A few great passes and a whole lot of bad, unforced errors.   

 

The topper was when one announcer says he has great pocket awareness and then gets sacked on the next play after holding the ball too long (at the 2 hour, 01 minute, 39 seconds mark)...

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by Lurker

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, CajunBillsBacker said:

That’s what I was thinking too. Boise is always pretty good at home and for Wyoming to keep it as close as they did wasn’t bad.

i saw a lot of WYO’s line getting destroyed and Allen having to run around and make plays with his feet. He juked the hell out of one guy in the middle of that video. He threw two interceptions, but he also threw some nice passes.

Boise St is the Gonzaga of college football—former Cinderella, but a team that now signs big-time recruits and can beat anyone in the country.  PAC 12 teams refuse to play them.