RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming

[Logic]

53 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm sure there's a few - there always are.

 

The majority I think are just honestly scared that a guy who needs a good bit of NFL development, will be like the last 2 1st rounders the Bills drafted and won't take that step.

 

 

Welcome!

 

I hope you're right.  If you find yourself getting a bit frustrated by some of the negativity, I suggest you stroll over to pro-football-reference and check out the Bills QB draft history.  The 1040EZ on it is that the last 2 QB the Bills drafted, had trouble learning to read and react to an NFL defense and the 2 most recent 1st rounders had "zip code" accuracy issues which weren't able to progress.

 

If your guy can go out there and ball, then show improved decisions and placement from year to year, we'll love him, every one of us, no worries.  For players who give it their all, there is no better fan base.

You laid it out pretty succinctly. I will be rooting hard for Allen to succeed, but it is IMPOSSIBLE for me to forget the ghosts of Losman and Manuel. Until proven otherwise, this feels like part 3 of a really bad movie series that I'm sick of watching. Here's hoping I'm totally wrong on this one.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Logic

[jrober38]

6 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

What does that tell you ? It's an inexact science that even the pros don't get right a large percentage of the time, because there are no absolutes. It's impossible to predict  because the game at that level is so different. And the human factor: guys flame out for all sorts of reasons that are not predictable because we can't see the future. Yes, it's silly to say a paid pro in the NFL is " dumb". Those folks should be called out, because that's an ignorant take. Fans may not agree with a lot of these picks, but pretending you can do a lot better is asinine because virtually no one in the NFL does. You would own the NFL if you could do better by a statistically significant margin over a period of time. 

 

I disagree.

 

Figuring out what QBs are going to be successful isn't too hard. 

Teams get into trouble when they ignore the game film and picks guys based off their measurables or potential. 

 

It's really freaking hard to find a QB, and teams should be a lot more selective than they are. The "projects" rarely succeed in the NFL. 

[jrober38]

6 hours ago, Putin said:

Dan Marino is another ( HOF’er ) BTW with same exact completion % as Allen , 

 

He went to college 35 years ago. 

[Putin]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

He went to college 35 years ago. 

And ?

[jrober38]

5 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

As are the odds for all the drafted qbs in every draft.....

 

You are buying a lottery ticket with any of these guys

 

That's such a lazy way of looking at it.

 

20 years ago maybe. But now a days when there are so many advanced analytics that can much more accurately predict what QBs will and won't succeed than your average scout, it isn't the inexact some science some people think it is. 

 

The fact that pretty much every advanced analytic gives Josh Allen next to no hope of being successful doesn't bode well for his future. Scouts might miss all the time on QBs, but there have proven to be some good studies that are quite accurate, and they think Allen is going to be a complete bust. 

[KellyToTasker]

2 minutes ago, Putin said:

And ?

The game has evolved a lot in 35 years.

[jrober38]

28 minutes ago, Logic said:

You laid it out pretty succinctly. I will be rooting hard for Allen to succeed, but it is IMPOSSIBLE for me to forget the ghosts of Losman and Manuel. Until proven otherwise, this feels like part 3 of a really bad movie series that I'm sick of watching. Here's hoping I'm totally wrong on this one.

 

Agreed.

 

Until he proves otherwise, in my eyes we just drafted some hybrid version of EJ Manuel/Josh Freeman/Jake Locker/Kyle Boller because that's what the numbers say we drafted. 

[Sky Diver]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

That's such a lazy way of looking at it.

 

20 years ago maybe. But now a days when there are so many advanced analytics that can much more accurately predict what QBs will and won't succeed than your average scout, it isn't the inexact some science some people think it is. 

 

The fact that pretty much every advanced analytic gives Josh Allen next to no hope of being successful doesn't bode well for his future. Scouts might miss all the time on QBs, but there have proven to be some good studies that are quite accurate, and they think Allen is going to be a complete bust. 

 

Players aren’t robots. I’m sure the Bills look at analytics, among other things.

[Scorp83]

8 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

So many fans take these so called ESPN/NFLN analysts words as bible.  It’s kinda sad.  They for their options solely off what those people say.  Also see slog od people referencing these second rate websites like walterfootball and basing their opinions off of that.   

I totally agree! You have to use your own eyes & brain... if you don't know what your looking at, You shouldn't speak on it after you sat & watch a TON of you tube highlights 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Players aren’t robots. I’m sure the Bills look at analytics, among other things.

 

Picking Allen in the 1st round suggests they don't. 

[BuffaloRush]

This is quite possibly one of the funniest things I've read on Twitter.  Since Thursday night, Jeremy White has been going off on the Bills for selecting Josh Allen both on the airwaves and especially on Twitter.  He literally has been retweeting every single negative new article about Josh Allen - this is no joke.  Yet as I pointed out, when he's had to chance to hold the guy accountable for making the decision (Brandon Beane) or the QB that he's been complaining about (Josh Allen) - he's very polite and says nothing.  

 

Anyway, some Bills fans have taken to Twitter and accused him of running a Josh Allen smear campaign.  This is pretty funny to me.  While it does seem like he's on a crusade to prove that Allen was a bad choice, in the process he does bring up some good points.  I actually like Jeremy's takes most of the time but I feel that he went way overboard.  Also, it's important to point out that Jeremy has been very wrong about a lot of things he's been outspoken against the past year - including the Sabres tanking, Doug Marrone and the Jags, The Las Vegas Golden Knights etc.  Just because he hates the pick, doesn't mean he's right.    

 

Also I'm glad to hear him share an opposing view on the Bills "flagship station," and appreciate him vocalizing the complaining on the air.   It would suck if all of WGR was an sterile as The John Murphy Show.  So with that being said, I don't think he's trying to turn the fans against Allen or running any kind of smear campaign.  I think he really hates the pick and feels that Rosen is the better QB.  I also think Bills fans can be overly defensive to any criticism, no matter how sound the argument is. 

 

However, I do find some of the responses to the tweet below on Twitter to be pretty funny.  

 

Here are some of the highlights from Twitter:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2018 by BuffaloRush

[stuvian]

The only outlet I have heard trash the Allen pick is the Sporting news (near bottom)

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nfl/news/nfl-draft-2018-grades-winners-losers-best-worst-broncos-bills-seahawks/1dkbptsgr3h911bp55d3m1cecw

 

I think we should "pay a visit" to Vinnie Iyers 'twitter account when Allen lights it up.

 

are there other writers trashing the pick?

Edited May 1, 2018 by stuvian

[Sky Diver]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Picking Allen in the 1st round suggests they don't. 

 

Maybe you should find a team that you think is better at evaluating talent?

Edited May 1, 2018 by Sky Diver

[jrober38]

Some Bills fans can't handle when anyone says anything bad about the Bills.

 

White is a relatively smart guy. He knows everything about Allen says he's very unlikely to make it as a Franchise QB in the NFL. 

 

He's a numbers guy and I give him credit for being consistent. If you look at the numbers, the only opinion of Allen you can have is that he's horrible. 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Maybe you should find a team that you think is better at evaluating talent?

 

Good call. 

 

I'll just give up on the Bills having watched this team for the past 30 years. 

 

Thanks for the advice. 

Edited May 1, 2018 by jrober38

[Scorp83]

Yea, this is completely false. I know cause I was part of the college QB text line... & I was one of the people that told him to stop sending me Josh Allen games... after I've watched the 6th game... I had enough. Man smh... the horrible decision making, over throwing wide open WR's down the middle of the field, can't throw to the flats, can't throw a 5 & out, throws into double coverage, threw off his back foot alot, put too much zip when it wasn't needed. Just horrible QB play... he had games that looked like Tyrod smh. 125 yard passing

 

Jeremy White didn't make people dislike Josh Allen... Josh Allen did that to the thousands of people watching him this pass season. Yet some people on this board wonder why fans like myself won't give him a chance, he hasn't earned it...nor shown it in college.

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, stuvian said:

The only outlet I have heard trash the Allen pick is the Sporting news (near bottom)

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nfl/news/nfl-draft-2018-grades-winners-losers-best-worst-broncos-bills-seahawks/1dkbptsgr3h911bp55d3m1cecw

 

I think we should "pay a visit" to Vinnie Iyers 'twitter account when Allen lights it up.

 

are there other writers trashing the pick?

 

Rotoworld has us picking #1 overall next year so that tells you a lot about what they think of the pick and our draft. 

 

"Old School" scouts seem to like Allen.

 

"New Scout" evaluators who rely on the numbers really hate him. 

[Carter]

The writing is on the wall. History is repeating itself. 

 

The Bills chose the wrong Josh!!

 

Doesnt get anymore obvious. Take off the rose colored glasses, lay off the kool aid. 

 

Beane made a critical mistake for our Bills and their future. It’s sad really. 

 

Next regime will will give us renewed hope. Will they get it right? doubt it. 

 

Attention on should be squarely on beane and McDermott. They should be getting smeared. 

Edited May 1, 2018 by Carter

[LEBills]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Good call. 

 

I'll just give up on the Bills having watched this team for the past 30 years. 

 

Thanks for the advice. 

Welcome to the Allen fan club! Plenty of room! Go Bills!

[Sky Diver]

19 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

That's such a lazy way of looking at it.

 

20 years ago maybe. But now a days when there are so many advanced analytics that can much more accurately predict what QBs will and won't succeed than your average scout, it isn't the inexact some science some people think it is. 

 

The fact that pretty much every advanced analytic gives Josh Allen next to no hope of being successful doesn't bode well for his future. Scouts might miss all the time on QBs, but there have proven to be some good studies that are quite accurate, and they think Allen is going to be a complete bust. 

 

If analytics were so reliable and scientific, why was Brady drafted in the 6th round and why are there so many first round busts?

Edited May 1, 2018 by Sky Diver

[John from Riverside]

20 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

That's such a lazy way of looking at it.

 

20 years ago maybe. But now a days when there are so many advanced analytics that can much more accurately predict what QBs will and won't succeed than your average scout, it isn't the inexact some science some people think it is. 

 

The fact that pretty much every advanced analytic gives Josh Allen next to no hope of being successful doesn't bode well for his future. Scouts might miss all the time on QBs, but there have proven to be some good studies that are quite accurate, and they think Allen is going to be a complete bust. 

That’s a pretty way of looking at it as well and if scouts REALLY thought he was going to be a complete bust he wouldn’t be a constant top ten pick 

Edited May 1, 2018 by John from Riverside

[Johnny Hammersticks]

Grew up with Jeremy.  Right around the corner.  Good dude.  He loves Buffalo Bills football, and has always been very opinionated.  Why can’t everyone express their opinions (w/o being disrespectful) and be allowed to do so without consequence of hostility?

 

3 minutes ago, Carter said:

The writing is on the wall. History is repeating itself. 

 

The Bills chose the wrong Josh!!

 

Doesnt get anymore obvious. Take off the rose colored glasses, lay off the kool aid. 

 

Beane made a critical mistake for our Bills and their future. It’s sad really. 

 

Next regime will will give us renewed hope. Will they get it right? doubt it. 

 

Attention on should be squarely on beane and McDermott. They should be getting smeared, they are idiots. 

 

I respect your opinion, but I also think you are very wrong.  Keep truckin’ fella!!

[stuvian]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Rotoworld has us picking #1 overall next year so that tells you a lot about what they think of the pick and our draft. 

 

"Old School" scouts seem to like Allen.

 

"New Scout" evaluators who rely on the numbers really hate him. 

You're right about rotoworld trashing us

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/79600/174/2018-afc-draft-grades

 

I think we need to keep a list of all these prognosticators and their twitter accounts when Allen blows up the scoreboard

[Scorp83]

9 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Some Bills fans can't handle when anyone says anything bad about the Bills.

 

White is a relatively smart guy. He knows everything about Allen says he's very unlikely to make it as a Franchise QB in the NFL. 

 

He's a numbers guy and I give him credit for being consistent. If you look at the numbers, the only opinion of Allen you can have is that he's horrible. 

Exactly! Listen to this caller Brian...he called during the Sal interview... & he nailed everything point I had! I was on hold but after hearing him... there was no point to stay on hold lol!

 

04-30 Sal Capaccio with Howard and Jeremy - http://www.wgr550.com/media/podcast/howard-and-jeremy

 

The main thing he said was "How can this front office look at Watson tape & decide he isn't good enough...yet they're blown away by Allen?" Why didn't they draft Mahomes? Who had a big arm & was a little more establish then Allen?"

 

Man check it out

Edited May 1, 2018 by Scorp83

[Putin]

4 minutes ago, KellyToTasker said:

The game has evolved a lot in 35 years.

I'm aware of that   been watching the NFL since the early 80's ! 

So what are you saying that 35 years ago competition % / accuracy was not as important when evaluating a potential first round pick ? Unless 35 years ago 56% = 64% today?  

 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Sky Diver said:

 

If analytics were so reliable and scientific, why was Brady drafted in the 6th round?

 

I have no idea how Brady scored. I honestly haven't read anything about his draft projection. 

 

What I have read is a number of articles about guys picked in the first round who looked and played like Allen. QBASE is a good one. Since 1997, 27 QBs with a negative rating have been picked in the first 100 picks. Not a single one of them has turned into a quality NFL player. The best of those 27 guys is Josh McCown, and notable disasters were Josh Freeman, JP Losman, Patrick Ramsay, Josh Freeman, etc. 

 

The Bills picked Allen because he has a rocket arm and looks like a QB. His game tape simply didn't show a 1st round calibre prospect. 

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, stuvian said:

You're right about rotoworld trashing us

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/79600/174/2018-afc-draft-grades

 

I think we need to keep a list of all these prognosticators and their twitter accounts when Allen blows up the scoreboard

 

Or as a list of guys to potential interview as GM if (when) Allen blows up as a colossal bust and Beane gets fired. 

[billsfan1959]

8 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

Yea, this is completely false. I know cause I was part of the college QB text line... & I was one of the people that told him to stop sending me Josh Allen games... after I've watched the 6th game... I had enough. Man smh... the horrible decision making, over throwing wide open WR's down the middle of the field, can't throw to the flats, can't throw a 5 & out, throws into double coverage, threw off his back foot alot, put too much zip when it wasn't needed. Just horrible QB play... he had games that looked like Tyrod smh. 125 yard passing

 

Jeremy White didn't make people dislike Josh Allen... Josh Allen did that to the thousands of people watching him this pass season. Yet some people on this board wonder why fans like myself won't give him a chance, he hasn't earned it...nor shown it in college.

I don't wonder why you have the low opinion of Allen - whatever you want to think of him, from one end of the spectrum to the other,  you can find some support for. However, I guess I do have to put myself in that camp that wonders how any fan of this team can say they will not even give him a chance. 

Edited May 1, 2018 by billsfan1959

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

Exactly! Listen to this caller Brian...he called during the Sal interview... & he nailed everything point I had! I was on hold but after hearing him... there was no point to stay on hold lol!

 

04-30 Sal Capaccio with Howard and Jeremy - http://www.wgr550.com/media/podcast/howard-and-jeremy

 

The main thing he said was "How can this front office look at Watson tape & decide he isn't good enough...yet they're blown away by Allen?" Why didn't they draft Mahomes? Who had a big arm & was a little more establish then Allen?"

 

Man check it out

 

Totally agree.

 

Mahomes was the same type of prospect as Allen only he was actually a pretty good college player.

 

Not liking Mahomes and then trading up for Allen makes zero sense whatsoever. 

 

Allen's game type, like EJ Manuel before him, suggested he should be a mid round draft pick.

 

If he were 6'1, 215 like Baker Mayfield, he wouldn't have been drafted. 

Edited May 1, 2018 by jrober38

[BuffaloRush]

10 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Some Bills fans can't handle when anyone says anything bad about the Bills.

 

White is a relatively smart guy. He knows everything about Allen says he's very unlikely to make it as a Franchise QB in the NFL. 

 

He's a numbers guy and I give him credit for being consistent. If you look at the numbers, the only opinion of Allen you can have is that he's horrible. 

 

You are somewhat right about this.  This is what's always bothered me about some Bills fans.  They'll blindly accept anything.  We could have signed EJ Manuel as the starting QB and some fans would be saying "let's give him a chance."  LOL

 

I agree with you on White - but like I said he's drawn a line in the sand about a number of issues in the NFL and NHL and has been wrong as of late.  Just because he disagrees, doesn't make it true.  

 

Also he showed a lot of courage in the interview with Beane today - did he not?

[stuvian]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Or as a list of guys to potential interview as GM if (when) Allen blows up as a colossal bust and Beane gets fired. 

 

don't tell me you're throwing in the towel!

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, stuvian said:

 

don't tell me you're throwing in the towel!

 

I don't think he has any hope of being a successful NFL QB.

 

I'm writing him off until he shows he can play. In my mind we just drafted EJ Manuel/Jake Locker/Kyle Boller/Josh Freeman. 

[Roundybout]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Totally agree.

 

Mahomes was the same type of prospect as Allen only he was actually a pretty good college player.

 

Not liking Mahomes and then trading up for Allen makes zero sense whatsoever. 

 

Allen's game type, like EJ Manuel before him, suggested he should be a mid round draft pick.

 

If he were 6'1, 215 like Baker Mayfield, he wouldn't have been drafted. 

 

Allen was in a pro style offense. Mahomes was air raid and EJ was a spread. They are not clones.

[BuffaloRush]

6 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Grew up with Jeremy.  Right around the corner.  Good dude.  He loves Buffalo Bills football, and has always been very opinionated.  Why can’t everyone express their opinions (w/o being disrespectful) and be allowed to do so without consequence of hostility?

 

 

I respect your opinion, but I also think you are very wrong.  Keep truckin’ fella!!

 

I think it's the way that Jeremy went about things.  Look I think Doug Whaley was a bad GM.  There are people here was passionately disagree.  If I write 10 threads about why Doug Whaley was a bad GM people are just going to get annoyed, even if they agree with what I'm saying.  Jeremy has been on a soapbox against Allen and for Rosen, and it's been annoying.  I get that

[JinxedBill1]

I'm a secular conservative. I don't know how to feel about this...lol

[PIZ]

7 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

 

The main thing he said was "How can this front office look at Watson tape & decide he isn't good enough...yet they're blown away by Allen?" Why didn't they draft Mahomes? Who had a big arm & was a little more establish then Allen?"

 

Man check it out

 

"This front office"?  The front office that passed over Watson and Mahomes isn't even a part of the team right now. McDermott, the coach, is the only decision maker that had anything to do with the 2017 draft.  

 

I also like to see Bills fans sticking up for their team.

 

 

Edited May 1, 2018 by PIZ

[PromoTheRobot]

16 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Some Bills fans can't handle when anyone says anything bad about the Bills.

 

White is a relatively smart guy. He knows everything about Allen says he's very unlikely to make it as a Franchise QB in the NFL. 

 

He's a numbers guy and I give him credit for being consistent. If you look at the numbers, the only opinion of Allen you can have is that he's horrible. 

Too bad this is football and not baseball.

 

White and, to a lesser extent, Simon are genuinely pissed at the Allen pick. And Beane knows it. But what pisses White off the most is this Bills regime can't be bullied by the media. So White can beyotch and moan all he likes and feed the trolls. The process moves on regardless.

Edited May 1, 2018 by PromoTheRobot

[Putin]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I have no idea how Brady scored. I honestly haven't read anything about his draft projection. 

 

What I have read is a number of articles about guys picked in the first round who looked and played like Allen. QBASE is a good one. Since 1997, 27 QBs with a negative rating have been picked in the first 100 picks. Not a single one of them has turned into a quality NFL player. The best of those 27 guys is Josh McCown, and notable disasters were Josh Freeman, JP Losman, Patrick Ramsay, Josh Freeman, etc. 

 

The Bills picked Allen because he has a rocket arm and looks like a QB. His game tape simply didn't show a 1st round calibre prospect. 

I don't know which game tapes you were looking at  , because there's few people who thought he could be 1st overall pick after looking at his game tape , 

[jrober38]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

Too bad this is football and not baseball.

 

White and, to a lesser extent, Simon are genuinely pissed at the Allen pick. And Beane knows it. But what pisses White of the most is this Bills regime can't be bullied by the media. So White can piss and moan all he likes and feed the trolls. The process moves on regardless.

 

I don't think this is true at all.

 

All the media guys are "pissed" because they've done nothing but read about these QBs and their prospects as future NFL QBs for the past 7 months. In doing all that reading and studying, they've learned extensively about how guys like Josh Allen never succeed in the NFL.

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, Putin said:

I don't know which game tapes you were looking at  , because there's few people who thought he could be 1st overall pick after looking at his game tape , 

 

All of the guys I just listed were first round picks and all were colossal busts. 

 

Just because a guy is a 1st round pick doesn't mean he's going to be any good.