RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming

[Bangarang]

20 minutes ago, The Virginian said:

I don't see why not, especially if a lot of people are banging on the 56 percent completion stat as a sure sign he's going to fail. 

 

You don’t see why it’s silly to compare the completion percentages of a player from 2017 to one in 1990? 

Edited April 29, 2018 by Bangarang

[Need4speed12000]

On 2018-04-27 at 12:29 AM, Eric Moulds on my A** said:

The value and potential with Tremaine is galactic. An absolute steal and the WR class this year was not great at all.

 

I didn’t say Edmunds was garbage, far from it, but we haven’t had a good reciever in years and our o-line is falling apart (Shady is gonna have a tough time running and if he can’t run we won’t be passing well either) . I hope he makes the defence great as I am sure he will, I just want to see some excitement again with this team and it doesn’t come from a snore fest of defensive plays for points :-(

[SWATeam]

Just now, Billsflyer12 said:

Your eyeballs told you that Allen was a better QB then Rosen or even Jackson?

Rosen was my number one.  Then I liked Darnold, Mayfield, and Allen.

 

I really liked all of the big 4.  I'm just happy the Bills identified their guy and went and got him.  

 

Like the pick or not, no one knows how these kids are going to turn out.  This isn't Science.

[Billsflyer12]

4 minutes ago, Need4speed12000 said:

From what they do on the field in the nfl. Your just seeing their mechanics, leadership, drive to win, situational plays, etc from college. We all know the nfl is another level and it’s taught by the coaches and veterans. You don’t become a race car driver just because you got your license, you learn to drive. Throw him at the helm, and you will see what Allen can really do for the Bills.....

But the data out there says your theory is not true.  Of the 38 QB drafted between 2010-2017 that have thrown at least 300 NFL passes, NONE of them have exceeded their college success rate in their 1st 4 years in the pros. (1ST 4 years used as that is their rookie contract length). In other words their college numbers are their ceiling.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype

 

[Need4speed12000]

12 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

But the data out there says your theory is not true.  Of the 38 QB drafted between 2010-2017 that have thrown at least 300 NFL passes, NONE of them have exceeded their college success rate in their 1st 4 years in the pros. (1ST 4 years used as that is their rookie contract length). In other words their college numbers are their ceiling.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype

 

•  

Read your article again, it’s says first 4 years of pro........not many qbs are instant stars in their first few years......

[Bing Bong]

41 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

So how then are we suppose to judge college QBs?

We don't we let the pro scouts do that

[Need4speed12000]

26 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

But the data out there says your theory is not true.  Of the 38 QB drafted between 2010-2017 that have thrown at least 300 NFL passes, NONE of them have exceeded their college success rate in their 1st 4 years in the pros. (1ST 4 years used as that is their rookie contract length). In other words their college numbers are their ceiling.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype

 

•  

Carson Wentz proves this theory wrong.......in his 2nd year of pro although only playing 13 games he exceeded his numbers of yards, tds, and less interceptions then his best year in college.....

Edited April 29, 2018 by Need4speed12000

[Billsflyer12]

1 minute ago, Need4speed12000 said:

Read your article again, it’s says first 4 years of pro........not many qbs are instant stars in their first few years......

The article specifically states why they use the first 4 years as a benchmark along with other details in the paragraphs that follow.

[Need4speed12000]

5 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

The article specifically states why they use the first 4 years as a benchmark along with other details in the paragraphs that follow.

Even the best qbs need time in the nfl to learn defensive schemes, new playbooks.........this is not a very valid or accurate article to judge a qb lol......once a system is learned, chemistry with teammates, etc, many qbs have far exceeded their college stats.......if your saying will Allen be a superstar in his first 4 years probably not with their current roster. But give him a few targets and a good o-line with his talent, and the skies the limit for this kid

Edited April 29, 2018 by Need4speed12000

[Billsflyer12]

2 minutes ago, Need4speed12000 said:

Carson Wentz proves this theory wrong.......in his 2nd year of pro although only playing 13 games he exceeded his numbers of yards, tds, and less into then his best year in college.....

Wentz has yet to get to 4 years, they did mention Goff, as one who has recovered in NFL from one year to the next.  Even if 1 or 2 outliers do come about, doesn't prove theory wrong. The chance that all of these QB have generally reached their statistical ceiling in college is overwhelmingly high.

[Need4speed12000]

2 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Wentz has yet to get to 4 years, they did mention Goff, as one who has recovered in NFL from one year to the next.  Even if 1 or 2 outliers do come about, doesn't prove theory wrong. The chance that all of these QB have generally reached their statistical ceiling in college is overwhelmingly high.

Well I guess when Allen is inducted into the HOF, you can put your doubts to rest lol

[Billsflyer12]

8 minutes ago, Need4speed12000 said:

Even the best qbs need time in the nfl to learn defensive schemes, new playbooks.........this is not a very valid or accurate article to judge a qb lol

But 1st round QB draft picks don't get time to learn.

 

4 minutes ago, Need4speed12000 said:

Well I guess when Allen is inducted into the HOF, you can put your doubts to rest lol

I hope Im wrong, but almost every data point says otherwise.

Edited April 29, 2018 by Billsflyer12

[klos63]

1 hour ago, Billsflyer12 said:

So how then are we suppose to judge college QBs?

We are not supposed to. The scouts and GM are supposed to.

1 hour ago, Need4speed12000 said:

No silly is saying a qb is garbage because of college stats period.......both Favre and Brady both had mediocre at best in yards, percentage, and tds.........doesn’t mean they are gonna be crap, which is my point here......

and it's a good point. Kelly's college stats were crap and he had shoulder surgery, turned out ok.

[PIZ]

I can't believe you guys are fighting about the Bills targeting, and trading up for a QB they decided was the best for this team.  There should be 63 pages in this thread of Bills fans congratulating each other for finally having a chance at having a franchise QB.  We finally have a GM that had the balls to take a chance on top 10 QB no matter the cost.  Quit your whining and root for your team or go root for the Cardinals or whatever team drafted the guy you wanted.

 

 

[Doc Brown]

I wish Allen played in a major conference with a better supporting cast against better opponents.  It would've given me more confidence that he can perform at a high level in the NFL as the pick required  a leap of faith by Beane/McDermott.  I give them credit for taking a chance on his upside knowing their jobs are probably on the line based on how he turns out.

Edited April 29, 2018 by Doc Brown

[PIZ]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

I wish Allen played in a major conference with a better supporting cast against better opponents.  It would've given me more confidence that he can perform at a high level in the NFL as the pick is almost like a leap in faith that he'll be a great one. 

 

If that happened and he excelled, we wouldn't have had a chance at getting him.  He would have gone #1.  Just have to trust the Bills scouts and front office, and hope he excels as our franchise QB.

 

[Doc Brown]

18 minutes ago, PIZ said:

 

If that happened and he excelled, we wouldn't have had a chance at getting him.  He would have gone #1.  Just have to trust the Bills scouts and front office, and hope he excels as our franchise QB.

 

Never thought of it that way.  He also could've been projected to go in the late rounds.  I guess the "trust the process" slogan is going to be really put to the test here.

[PIZ]

Some interesting tweets......

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some of you guys think this guy (Rosen) would have been a fit with McBeane?  Not doubting him as a player, but this is not the kind of player McDermott wants on his team.  Beane and McDermott purged all of those guys from the team within the last year.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BillsFan4]

The more I read about how bad Arizona is said to have wanted Allen and the more I think about it, the more I wonder if they were the ones who leaked those old tweets...

 

They know how important personality, high character and the culture in the locker room are to McDermott and Beane. 

 

They (probably) also knew how much the Bills wanted Allen (it didn't seem to be a well kept secret...) and that they didn't have the ammo the Bills did. 

 

 

 

 

[RocCityRoller]

3 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said:

But 1st round QB draft picks don't get time to learn.

 

 

 

And a lot of those guys failed. Lets look at the list of some guys who did get to wait, in the relatively modern era

Tom Brady - 17

Aaron Rogers - 48

Patrick Mahomes - 16

Brett Favre - 19

Jay Cutler - 12

 

maybe a key is to be patient and sit

[RocCityRoller]

I didn't want Allen. I also didn't want Rosen or Jackson.

 

My preferences were:

Darnold

Mayfield

Rudolph

 

With Mayfield and Darnold gone, and Buffalo moving up to 7 I knew it would be Allen, which was the best of Allen/Rosen/Jackson to me.

 

I am leary of the sub 58.5% final year completion rate. It's got about a 0.9 correlation with success or failure in the NFL (very high correlation).

 

But I took a day to absorb it and started looking for best case scenario comparables.

 

I needed to find a big country boy, with escape ability, a big arm, a cheery disposition, a gunslinger mentality (will take chances, throw some wow TDs and some head slapping INTS), and underwhelming college stats against fairly weak college competition.

 

I found the best case comp I can hope for.

 

Final college year stat comparison:

 

QB A - 150 CMP/ 275 ATT - 54.5%, 1572 YARDS, 5.7 Y/A, 7 TD, 6 INT 106.6 RATE

QB B - 152 CMP/ 270 ATT - 56.3%, 1812 YARDS, 6.7 Y/A, 16 TD, 6 INT 127.8 RATE

 

QB A is Brett Favre, QB B is Josh Allen

 

Those of you younger fans know of Brett Favre the Hall of Fame QB, but he had a very bumpy start. His first game action was Nathan Peterman esque. 0 comp on 4 attempts, 2 INTS, a sack and an incompletion. He was so bad Atlanta gave up on him after a year, he never saw the field again for them. Their coach didn't even want him drafted. GB had wanted him and took him.

 

IMO our best case scenario with Allen is Favre. It's the most honest best case benchmark I can find.

 

Favre was a light hearted, big armed, scrambling gunslinger. He would make wow plays and some real head scratchers. GB won with Favre and often lost with Favre. We have to let Josh Allen be Josh Allen. Favre's first year was effectively a sit year (played in the one 'Peterman'  game in Atlanta).

 

His first two years as a starter (yrs 2-3 in the NFL)  were ok:

13 games (8-5) 302 CMP/ 471 ATT - 64.1%, 3227 YARDS, 6.9 Y/A, 18 TD, 13 INT 85.3 RATE

16 games (9-7) 318 CMP/ 522 ATT - 60.9%, 3303 YARDS, 6.3 Y/A, 19 TD, 24 INT 72.2 RATE

 

That's a whopping 62% completion rate, 37 tds to 37 ints, 17-12 record. That was in year 2 and 3.

 

When Favre retired he had improved but retired with the most INTS thrown in NFL history. But Favre was always looking to keep plays alive, ran a round like a chicken with his head cut off and always looked downfield for a big play, and a times trusted his arm too much. Looking at Allen's college film the past two days, this is what I see with Allen. The GB coaching staff had to reign in Favre at times, I think we will see that with Allen too.We will also see dazzling plays and head scratching Ints.

 

I think Favre is our best case scenario for Allen. If we get close to that then Allen will be a spectacular pick.

 

Another note, Cam Newton another comparable also has similar traits. Notice how Carolina helps Cam with his accuracy issues by getting big receivers with a large catch radius? Favre's favorite target in his early years wasn't a WR but Sharpe, a big fast TE with a large catch radius. (EDIT Sharpe was a big bodied WR with a big catch radius, I was corrected per below, but the point stands) Benjamin and Jones (that was his calling card in college) do fit that bill.

 

Well, I just wanted to share that for what it's worth.

 

Welcome to Buffalo Josh Allen. I hope we are patient enough to see you blossom into the QB you can become.

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[GETTOTHE50]

I just watched josh !@#$s allen senior bowl highlights.

 

I am convinced.

 

he is going to be !@#$ing awesome 

[Prickly Pete]

 

[Billsfansinceday1]

There were 2 Wyoming players drafted in 2017...was there a second player this year?  I am not seeing any listed but could well be wrong.

 

Either way, that does say a lot about Josh Allen to be graded so highly with a weak supporting cast.

Edited April 29, 2018 by Billsfansinceday1

[Max Fischer]

46 minutes ago, Billsfansinceday1 said:

There were 2 Wyoming players drafted in 2017...was there a second player this year?  I am not seeing any listed but could well be wrong.

 

Either way, that does say a lot about Josh Allen to be graded so highly with a weak supporting cast.

 

Isnt he graded against all college football players?  

[Skins Malone]

8 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

At Wyoming the last two years he played with only two drafted NFL players he’s got some work to do but man to say Wyoming had no talent compared to the schools of the other qb prospects is an understatement 

I just wish we had some more weapons for him right now...granted he probably wont start this year. 

[CheshireCT]

I like Allen's demeanor. He seems well-balanced, open to criticism and a worker (in addition to his size, athleticism, and arm). In the end, teams don't draft football players, they draft people. I think they got the right guy.

[cd1]

I was numb when they announced his name.

 

Now I can't wait to see what this kid can do with NFL caliber players around him!

 

 

 

[SMAKCruiser]

4 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

I didn't want Allen. I also didn't want Rosen or Jackson.

 

My preferences were:

Darnold

Mayfield

Rudolph

 

With Mayfield and Darnold gone, and Buffalo moving up to 7 I knew it would be Allen, which was the best of Allen/Rosen/Jackson to me.

 

I am leary of the sub 58.5% final year completion rate. It's got about a 0.9 correlation with success or failure in the NFL (very high correlation).

 

But I took a day to absorb it and started looking for best case scenario comparables.

 

I needed to find a big country boy, with escape ability, a big arm, a cheery disposition, a gunslinger mentality (will take chances, throw some wow TDs and some head slapping INTS), and underwhelming college stats against fairly weak college competition.

 

I found the best case comp I can hope for.

 

Final college year stat comparison:

 

QB A - 150 CMP/ 275 ATT - 54.5%, 1572 YARDS, 5.7 Y/A, 7 TD, 6 INT 106.6 RATE

QB B - 152 CMP/ 270 ATT - 56.3%, 1812 YARDS, 6.7 Y/A, 16 TD, 6 INT 127.8 RATE

 

QB A is Brett Favre, QB B is Josh Allen

 

Those of you younger fans know of Brett Favre the Hall of Fame QB, but he had a very bumpy start. His first game action was Nathan Peterman esque. 0 comp on 4 attempts, 2 INTS, a sack and an incompletion. He was so bad Atlanta gave up on him after a year, he never saw the field again for them. Their coach didn't even want him drafted. GB had wanted him and took him.

 

IMO our best case scenario with Allen is Favre. It's the most honest best case benchmark I can find.

 

Favre was a light hearted, big armed, scrambling gunslinger. He would make wow plays and some real head scratchers. GB won with Favre and often lost with Favre. We have to let Josh Allen be Josh Allen. Favre's first year was effectively a sit year (played in the one 'Peterman'  game in Atlanta).

 

His first two years as a starter (yrs 2-3 in the NFL)  were ok:

13 games (8-5) 302 CMP/ 471 ATT - 64.1%, 3227 YARDS, 6.9 Y/A, 18 TD, 13 INT 85.3 RATE

16 games (9-7) 318 CMP/ 522 ATT - 60.9%, 3303 YARDS, 6.3 Y/A, 19 TD, 24 INT 72.2 RATE

 

That's a whopping 62% completion rate, 37 tds to 37 ints, 16-12 record. That was in year 2 and 3.

 

When Favre retired he had improved but retired with the most INTS thrown in NFL history. But Favre was always looking to keep plays alive, ran a round like a chicken with his head cut off and always looked downfield for a big play, and a times trusted his arm too much. Looking at Allen's college film the past two days, this is what I see with Allen. The GB coaching staff had to reign in Favre at times, I think we will see that with Allen too.We will also see dazzling plays and head scratching Ints.

 

I think Favre is our best case scenario for Allen. If we get close to that then Allen will be a spectacular pick.

 

Another note, Cam Newton another comparable also has similar traits. Notice how Carolina helps Cam with his accuracy issues by getting big receivers with a large catch radius? Favre's favorite target in his early years wasn't a WR but Sharpe, a big fast TE with a large catch radius. Benjamin and Jones (that was his calling card in college) do fit that bill.

 

Well, I just wanted to share that for what it's worth.

 

Welcome to Buffalo Josh Allen. I hope we are patient enough to see you blossom into the QB you can become.

 

 

 

 

 

I am pretty sure Sterling Sharpe was a WR, not a TE.  His brother Shannon was a TE.

[RocCityRoller]

16 minutes ago, SMAKCruiser said:

 

 

I am pretty sure Sterling Sharpe was a WR, not a TE.  His brother Shannon was a TE.

 

True enough Sterling was a WR, who had a huge catch radius. He was a big bodied WR. I misspoke there, what about the rest?

[SMAKCruiser]

9 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

True enough Sterling was a WR, who had a huge catch radius. He was a big bodied WR. I misspoke there, what about the rest?

 

The rest was right on the money.   

[ALF]

Allen's injury history is reason enough to sit him till the OL is viable.

 

https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=566876

[wppete]

 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

True enough Sterling was a WR, who had a huge catch radius. He was a big bodied WR. I misspoke there, what about the rest?

I like your posts.  Insightful and well-written.

[JaCrispy]

5 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

I just watched josh !@#$s allen senior bowl highlights.

 

I am convinced.

 

he is going to be !@#$ing awesome 

If he can put it all together he definitely has the potential to be great...the interesting thing is he looks so much better in the senior bowl game than during his regular season.

[Eric Moulds on my A**]

2 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

If he can put it all together he definitely has the potential to be great...the interesting thing is he looks so much better in the senior bowl game than during his regular season.

Watch his pro day and you'll understand why. His WR's wouldn't be on the bench in the NFL, or any collegiate power house. 

[RocCityRoller]

21 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I like your posts.  Insightful and well-written.

 

Thank you. Tip of the hat to you as well. I had to make the Luck Troll post as an initial 'splash' on OBD LOL!

Yet we have a rookie with one of the 5 best arms in the NFL and Luck is not even throwing footballs.

 

I wanted to try to figure out why McBean went Allen. The best I can tell, they see a little Brett Favre in Allen. If those are the fences this team is swinging for I am on board. But it will take 2-3 years to come to fruition. We will have to let Allen take his lumps and grow. The comps are there though. Stats, background, make up. It's all there.

[RocCityRoller]

6 hours ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

I just watched josh !@#$s allen senior bowl highlights.

 

I am convinced.

 

he is going to be !@#$ing awesome 

 

They really are nice aren't they? Mostly FBS players, all seniors, most drafted and Allen shined. He was the best North QB out there.

[Rufridr101]

Allen played in a prostyle offense under center nearly 50% of the time making big boy throws to below average receivers scored above average on the wonderlic the minute he is inserted in the game defenses will play deep opening up running game absolutely love this pick the goal is winning Superbowl not just being competitive 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, SMAKCruiser said:

 

 

I am pretty sure Sterling Sharpe was a WR, not a TE.  His brother Shannon was a TE.

 

...yup....and career was cut short by neck injury........this kid had game.....Shannon had game AND a mouth...LMAO..........