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The Most Accurate "Mock Drafters" over the Past Five Years


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22 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

here is the top guy, Joe Marino's latest mock draft:

https://www.ndtscouting.com/marino-6-pack-thursday-two-weeks-out-mock-draft/

 

Here's his record on what QBs from 2000-2015 he predicted would bust or not: https://www.ndtscouting.com/marino-your-1st-round-qb-is-likely-to-be-a-bust/

 

Here’s the full list of quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 2000-2015 to give an overview of this data and who I determined to be a bust.
 

Year Player School Conf. Bust?
2015 Jameis Winston Florida St. ACC NO
2015 Marcus Mariota Oregon PAC 12 NO
2015 Johnny Manziel Texas A&M SEC YES
2014 Blake Bortles UCF AAC NO
2014 Teddy Bridgewater Louisville ACC YES
2013 EJ Manuel Florida St. ACC YES
2012 Robert Griffin III Baylor BIG 12 YES
2012 Brandon Weeden Oklahoma St. BIG 12 YES
2012 Andrew Luck Stanford PAC 12 NO
2012 Ryan Tannehill Texas A&M SEC NO
2011 Christian Ponder Florida St. ACC YES
2011 Blaine Gabbert Missouri BIG 12 YES
2011 Jake Locker Washington PAC 12 YES
2011 Cam Newton Auburn SEC NO
2010 Sam Bradford Oklahoma BIG 12 NO
2010 Tim Tebow Florida SEC YES
2009 Josh Freeman Kansas State BIG 12 YES
2009 Mark Sanchez USC PAC 12 YES
2009 Matthew Stafford Georgia SEC NO
2008 Matt Ryan Boston College ACC NO
2008 Joe Flacco Delaware FCS NO
2007 Brady Quinn Notre Dame IND YES
2007 JaMarcus Russell LSU SEC YES
2006 Vince Young Texas BIG 12 YES
2006 Matt Leinart USC PAC 12 YES
2006 Jay Cutler Vanderbilt SEC NO
2005 Alex Smith Utah MWC NO
2005 Aaron Rodgers Cal PAC 12 NO
2005 Jason Campbell Auburn SEC YES
2004 Phillip Rivers NC State ACC NO
2004 JP Losman Tulane CUSA YES
2004 Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) MAC NO
2004 Eli Manning Mississippi SEC NO
2003 Byron Leftwich Marshall MAC YES
2003 Carson Palmer USC PAC 12 NO
2003 Kyle Boller Cal PAC 12 YES
2003 Rex Grossman Florida SEC YES
2002 Patrick Ramsey Tulane CUSA YES
2002 Joey Harrington Oregon PAC 12 YES
2002 David Carr Fresno St. WAC YES
2001 Michael Vick Virginia Tech BIG EAST NO
2000 Chad Pennington Marshall MAC NO
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11 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Denver isn’t taking a QB at 5. 

Why ?? Because they have Keenam for 2 years  ? Or maybe because they believe  only one or two potential franchise QB’s who will be gone after the Jets pick ?  

4 minutes ago, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

They're just lucky Skip Bayless doesn't do a mock!!!!! He'd toast them. (sarcasm)

Getting the best Center and a great passer would be awesome

Yes it would be but we’d have to move up to 2 to get a GREAT passer !!!

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9 minutes ago, Putin said:

Why ?? Because they have Keenam for 2 years  ? Or maybe because they believe  only one or two potential franchise QB’s who will be gone after the Jets pick ?  

Yes it would be but we’d have to move up to 2 to get a GREAT passer !!!

I’ve heard that they don’t view QB’s as the other white meat.

 

 

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Marino | Buffalo Bills 2018 NFL Draft Primer
In Buffalo Bills’ general manager Brandon Beane’s first draft with the team he finds himself loaded with draft capital and a host of needs including the all-important quarterback position. Beane’s first 11 months on the job has been spent getting “his guys” that fit head coach Sean McDermott’s style.

Here’s everything you need to know about Buffalo’s off-season and where they should be looking to upgrade the roster in this year’s NFL Draft.

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There is so much information in this report; I have this theory. First, The guy sending the post IS the "Snitch". There is just TOO much detailed information to be second hand. The second is that this poster has a desperate need to feel important and it's kind of sad. Third is that this is all true. If so the "Snitch" should never have a job in the NFL again and the "Snitches Snitch" is someone to never be trusted. 

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1 minute ago, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

There is so much information in this report; I have this theory. First, The guy sending the post IS the "Snitch". There is just TOO much detailed information to be second hand. The second is that this poster has a desperate need to feel important and it's kind of sad. Third is that this is all true. If so the "Snitch" should never have a job in the NFL again and the "Snitches Snitch" is someone to never be trusted. 

 

 

It could be like Game of Thrones. They could know there’s a leak, give everyone a different story and whatever hits the web is your leak. 

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55 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

Yes please with sugar on top. 

 

I like keeping our first and only trading up to 7, but I don’t like taking a center in the first round.  There’s too many other offensive lineman in this draft to take one that early. Get your BPA LB, DB, WR, or TE here. 

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11 minutes ago, the skycap said:

I understand that, but seeing that the offense is something that Jackson ran and was successful at would make him the perfect fit as opposed to someone coming in and learning it.

As a rusher yes he was successful, as a passer not nearly as successful.

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Nolan Nawrocki was the best.  I remember his mock draft for the 2010 draft had 13 or 14 direct hits, right player to right team.  He was super plugged in.

 

Unfortunately, this is the first year he didnt put out a draft guide.  I wonder if a team hired him.....I know he had declined offers in the past.

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1 hour ago, Putin said:

Will this year’s draft have more trades then we can remember?

So Denver would pass on Rosen and take a Guard ? 

 

Denver has what, $18M invested in QB this year?  How did Gettleman put it - "there isn't a QB in the NFL who will say,  don't worry about the middle, let 'em through and I'll take care of it". 

 

Denver could do way dumber things.

 

OTOH keep in mind this winning guy predicted 28 of 32 1st round players last year, but only matched 9 to the correct team.

 

 

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I'm a big Keenum fan, but I don't see Denver passing on a QB and waiting a few years for something else down the road.

 

Anyway, I'm thinking of going in on a sushi pop-up that would only operate between the SB and the Draft.  It's called "Mock and Roll".

 

Thoughts?

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2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Here's his record on what QBs from 2000-2015 he predicted would bust or not: https://www.ndtscouting.com/marino-your-1st-round-qb-is-likely-to-be-a-bust/

 

Here’s the full list of quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 2000-2015 to give an overview of this data and who I determined to be a bust.
 

Year Player School Conf. Bust?
2015 Jameis Winston Florida St. ACC NO
2015 Marcus Mariota Oregon PAC 12 NO
2015 Johnny Manziel Texas A&M SEC YES
2014 Blake Bortles UCF AAC NO
2014 Teddy Bridgewater Louisville ACC YES
2013 EJ Manuel Florida St. ACC YES
2012 Robert Griffin III Baylor BIG 12 YES
2012 Brandon Weeden Oklahoma St. BIG 12 YES
2012 Andrew Luck Stanford PAC 12 NO
2012 Ryan Tannehill Texas A&M SEC NO
2011 Christian Ponder Florida St. ACC YES
2011 Blaine Gabbert Missouri BIG 12 YES
2011 Jake Locker Washington PAC 12 YES
2011 Cam Newton Auburn SEC NO
2010 Sam Bradford Oklahoma BIG 12 NO
2010 Tim Tebow Florida SEC YES
2009 Josh Freeman Kansas State BIG 12 YES
2009 Mark Sanchez USC PAC 12 YES
2009 Matthew Stafford Georgia SEC NO
2008 Matt Ryan Boston College ACC NO
2008 Joe Flacco Delaware FCS NO
2007 Brady Quinn Notre Dame IND YES
2007 JaMarcus Russell LSU SEC YES
2006 Vince Young Texas BIG 12 YES
2006 Matt Leinart USC PAC 12 YES
2006 Jay Cutler Vanderbilt SEC NO
2005 Alex Smith Utah MWC NO
2005 Aaron Rodgers Cal PAC 12 NO
2005 Jason Campbell Auburn SEC YES
2004 Phillip Rivers NC State ACC NO
2004 JP Losman Tulane CUSA YES
2004 Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) MAC NO
2004 Eli Manning Mississippi SEC NO
2003 Byron Leftwich Marshall MAC YES
2003 Carson Palmer USC PAC 12 NO
2003 Kyle Boller Cal PAC 12 YES
2003 Rex Grossman Florida SEC YES
2002 Patrick Ramsey Tulane CUSA YES
2002 Joey Harrington Oregon PAC 12 YES
2002 David Carr Fresno St. WAC YES
2001 Michael Vick Virginia Tech BIG EAST NO
2000 Chad Pennington Marshall MAC NO

So.....23 busts and 18 "yes's".  

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4 hours ago, kdiggz said:

here is the top guy, Joe Marino's latest mock draft:

https://www.ndtscouting.com/marino-6-pack-thursday-two-weeks-out-mock-draft/

The guy is a genius!

3 hours ago, Estro said:

Nolan Nawrocki was the best.  I remember his mock draft for the 2010 draft had 13 or 14 direct hits, right player to right team.  He was super plugged in.

 

Unfortunately, this is the first year he didnt put out a draft guide.  I wonder if a team hired him.....I know he had declined offers in the past.

The Cam thing killed him.

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

So.....23 busts and 18 "yes's".  

I think you would be: 1) surprised at amount of busts at other positions and 2) horrified at how bad the ratio gets after the 1st round.

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@26CornerBlitz Hey, I know you are big on Rosen- (I am less a fan of his, but would still be happy if he is the "guy") but can you give me your opinion on the alleged attitude issues, and the injury history that we hear as knocks on him? 

I am not looking for a debate, just wanting to get to a point where I really understand the sides. :) 

 

Anyone else is welcome to respond as well. 

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4 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Here's his record on what QBs from 2000-2015 he predicted would bust or not: https://www.ndtscouting.com/marino-your-1st-round-qb-is-likely-to-be-a-bust/

 

Here’s the full list of quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 2000-2015 to give an overview of this data and who I determined to be a bust.
 

Year Player School Conf. Bust?
2015 Jameis Winston Florida St. ACC NO
2015 Marcus Mariota Oregon PAC 12 NO
2015 Johnny Manziel Texas A&M SEC YES
2014 Blake Bortles UCF AAC NO
2014 Teddy Bridgewater Louisville ACC YES
2013 EJ Manuel Florida St. ACC YES
2012 Robert Griffin III Baylor BIG 12 YES
2012 Brandon Weeden Oklahoma St. BIG 12 YES
2012 Andrew Luck Stanford PAC 12 NO
2012 Ryan Tannehill Texas A&M SEC NO
2011 Christian Ponder Florida St. ACC YES
2011 Blaine Gabbert Missouri BIG 12 YES
2011 Jake Locker Washington PAC 12 YES
2011 Cam Newton Auburn SEC NO
2010 Sam Bradford Oklahoma BIG 12 NO
2010 Tim Tebow Florida SEC YES
2009 Josh Freeman Kansas State BIG 12 YES
2009 Mark Sanchez USC PAC 12 YES
2009 Matthew Stafford Georgia SEC NO
2008 Matt Ryan Boston College ACC NO
2008 Joe Flacco Delaware FCS NO
2007 Brady Quinn Notre Dame IND YES
2007 JaMarcus Russell LSU SEC YES
2006 Vince Young Texas BIG 12 YES
2006 Matt Leinart USC PAC 12 YES
2006 Jay Cutler Vanderbilt SEC NO
2005 Alex Smith Utah MWC NO
2005 Aaron Rodgers Cal PAC 12 NO
2005 Jason Campbell Auburn SEC YES
2004 Phillip Rivers NC State ACC NO
2004 JP Losman Tulane CUSA YES
2004 Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) MAC NO
2004 Eli Manning Mississippi SEC NO
2003 Byron Leftwich Marshall MAC YES
2003 Carson Palmer USC PAC 12 NO
2003 Kyle Boller Cal PAC 12 YES
2003 Rex Grossman Florida SEC YES
2002 Patrick Ramsey Tulane CUSA YES
2002 Joey Harrington Oregon PAC 12 YES
2002 David Carr Fresno St. WAC YES
2001 Michael Vick Virginia Tech BIG EAST NO
2000 Chad Pennington Marshall MAC NO

 

Has this been verified or just what he claims to have predicted prior to each of those drafts?  If it's real, that's impressive.  And I may have missed it, but who does he think won't bust in this year's draft?

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18 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

@26CornerBlitz Hey, I know you are big on Rosen- (I am less a fan of his, but would still be happy if he is the "guy") but can you give me your opinion on the alleged attitude issues, and the injury history that we hear as knocks on him? 

I am not looking for a debate, just wanting to get to a point where I really understand the sides. :) 

 

Anyone else is welcome to respond as well. 

 

Rosen is my #1 QB too.  But he does suffer from turnovers vs Pressure.  And it's evident here vs Memphis

 

 

Look at 4:48-4:50 and 12:19-12:24 when the pressure starts getting to Josh he'll lose his mechanics with the quickness and go into this protection type throw and it results in turnovers.  But other than that, there's just so much good.  Tight Window throws; NFL Anticipation; lots of passing to the middle of the field; eye manipulation; pass placement in 1 v 1 situations.  Lots to like IMO.  For the most part very solid mechanics, probably the best in the class (just not against pressure).  To me a Day 1 starter.

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8 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I like keeping our first and only trading up to 7, but I don’t like taking a center in the first round.  There’s too many other offensive lineman in this draft to take one that early. Get your BPA LB, DB, WR, or TE here. 

Yeah ideal world we only give up a 2nd to move up. And we can take LVE or Maurice Hurst. 

Pretty dreamy draft 

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8 hours ago, the skycap said:

I understand that, but seeing that the offense is something that Jackson ran and was successful at would make him the perfect fit as opposed to someone coming in and learning it.

 

The only problem is Jackson is a much worse passer than Rosen. So you go with Rosen.

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