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Mike Mayock: There is no Carson Wentz in this QB class; wouldn’t put one in his top 5


YoloinOhio

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4 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Haha, so true.Most of these talking heads have no clue. Let's hope this new Bills GM with new scouts knows their QB's.

 

Thanks. :D

 

Trust me, at first glance I was thinking "no way do I want the Bills to draft this kid" with his accuracy issues. Then after digging deeper and looking at his 2017 season and listening to his coach I've come around. I looked at the poor team he was on with a bad line and receivers that couldn't catch a cold. He would throw a rope right to them in the end zone and they would drop it. 

 

Don't get me wrong as he made a lot of bad plays too. I think that can be corrected with some proper coaching. He still might end up as a bust if he goes to Cleveland who will pound him into dust.

 

In Buffalo, I think he could be another Kelly as he is a bit of a gunslinger and a big tough guy with a cannon for an arm. The Bills need a QB with an arm like his to cut through the swirling winds at new era stadium. He played at Wyoming so snow won't be an issue as it is with those California boys. 

 

 

Remind me, when is the last time that a Bills QB has had to "cut through swirling winds" at New Era Field?  Does Buffalo have 30-40 mph wind gusts at every single home game during the season or something?

Edited by Buffalo Bills Detective
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7 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Remind me, when is the last time that a Bills QB has had to "cut through swirling winds" at New Era Field?  Does Buffalo have 30-40 mph wind gusts at every single home game during the season or something?

They drafted Nathan Peterman last year so that tells you all you need to know about that question in the mind of McD. Beane is quoted as saying arm strength is important and it can’t be taught, but accuracy is the most important thing. 

Edited by YoloinOhio
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19 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

WHY do you people think that ANY team would be willing to accept Tyrod Taylor in a trade scenario!!?!??!!?!?!?!???!?!???!?!??!!?!!?!?!?!??!?!!?

Yikes. So salty.

 

anyway, the options for trade are limited. But he is an experienced starting QB on a moderate contract. A team like Cleveland, with more draft picks than they need given the youth and inexperience already on their team, more cap space than they can spend given the general unattractiveneas of the team in FA, and a giant need for a QB with any kind of experience on the roster could yield a pick. His contract is up in a year which is ideal as a bridge guy. 

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14 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Remind me, when is the last time that a Bills QB has had to "cut through swirling winds" at New Era Field?  Does Buffalo have 30-40 mph wind gusts at every single home game during the season or something?

 

It is an issue that opposing QB's used to talk about it a lot and it also made trouble for kickers. It isn't always that way but on certain days you had better have a cannon for an arm or that ball is going sailing.  I'm speaking from experience too because I had season tickets for a number of years and now my son has had some for the past 10 years.

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3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Mike Mayock?

 

The same idiot that thought Gabbert  would be better then Cam Newton?

The same idiot that said liked Weeden over Cousins?

The same idiot that picked RG3 over Cousins?

The same idiot that LOVED Josh Freeman?

 

Come on guys lets not care for one second what this guy has to say.. Please

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Why in the world , other than money would Cousins consider the Browns? The owner is a mess, OT Joe Thomas is excellent but at the end of his career, his best WR is a joint away from never playing again. I guess money talks but he can make money in a better situation. His best bet is playing in Denver with 2 very good WR, Not the best OL but they have some good pieces in place, they'll need a RB, TE to keep things honest.

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17 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

It is an issue that opposing QB's used to talk about it a lot and it also made trouble for kickers. It isn't always that way but on certain days you had better have a cannon for an arm or that ball is going sailing.  I'm speaking from experience too because I had season tickets for a number of years and now my son has had some for the past 10 years.

Fine.  I hope the Bills take Josh Allen at 21 or 22.  But, you better hope and pray that you're getting the Josh Allen who dominates against Texas State and Gardiner Webb, as opposed to the Josh Allen who looks like an undrafted free agent against Oregon and Iowa.

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2 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Lamar Jackson is growing on me as a guy to take if we have to end up staying where we are at. The biggest thing I think is I believe Daboll would tailor an offense to him

 

Keep Lamar in the pocket, play zone defense and he will be lost.

 

No, thank you.

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4 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Prototypical size, very good arm strength, excellent athlete who makes plays with his legs, intelligent, reads defenses, throws with timing and anticipation, can make plays outside of structure. 

 

Wentz significantly improved his play, too, from his rookie season to his sophomore.  Taking a big step forward in his second year as a starter is usually a sign that a young QB is the real deal as demonstrated by guys like Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Russel Wilson among others.

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23 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Exactly.  Go back and watch him the bowl game against Mississippi State and ask yourself if you want the Bills spending even a low 1st round pick on Jackson.

Jackson does scare me with his hitting a big throw after a few bad throws. Reminds me of Geno Smith!

 

Why on earth would the Bills want a lesser, more turnover version of Tyrod Taylor?

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42 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Mike Mayock?

 

The same idiot that thought Gabbert  would be better then Cam Newton?

The same idiot that said liked Weeden over Cousins?

The same idiot that picked RG3 over Cousins?

The same idiot that LOVED Josh Freeman?

 

Come on guys lets not care for one second what this guy has to say.. Please

I’m pretty sure everyone had RG3 over Cousins. 

 

Did you really find what he’s saying to be that outlandish to believe he’s an idiot for saying it? It wouldnt be too hard for me to find 4 players in the draft who are better prospects at their position than the best QB. And given what Carson Wentz is, I don’t see any of them being that exact QB either from what we know today. They each possess some very good skills/qualities though.

Edited by YoloinOhio
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I was hoping for Mahomes last year (Watson may have been a decent pick , as well--lol). However, everyone was talking about how great this year would be for QB's. So now here we sit, with a bunch of guys that don't seem as good as the previous two years.

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3 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

If the standard of excellence is nothing less than perfect I'd like to know who you're following. And it's fake to declare them being more wrong than right, unless you're citing their mock drafts which everyone is less than perfect at.

 

Kiper is Kiper, but he's been in the draft business now 40 years and Mayock's widely known as one of the best. I prefer the latter but a case can be made for numerous types who have their share of misses.

Kiper is a blowhard- and yes, he is wrong a whole lot more than right in regards to his mocks. No, I dont expect perfection, my point is all these mocks are shotty, and will be a little less shotty after FA. 

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4 hours ago, zevo said:

Why is Carson Wentz now the standard....

 

With the exception of a problematic throwing motion, Carson Wentz was the most pro-ready QB I've seen since '98... Not even Rodgers looked that good.

I'm glad Mayock is telling the Truth... This draft features some promising QB talent in late rounds like LSU's Danny Etling, and Riley Ferguson from MEM...

We could save this years high picks for d-line and LB to strengthen those units

Edited by #34fan
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I like Wentz a lot but he was also surrounded by an excellent coaching staff and a very talented supporting cast. Nick Foles is a solid qb and was plugged into that system and looked like an all-pro. Again, Wentz is a very promising young qb but he has yet to be asked to carry a team. 

 

Incidentally Wentz went #2 to Jared Goff so should Mayock be saying there is no qb as good as Goff in this year's draft? Hindsight is 20/20 but when Wentz was coming out there were a lot of questions about the level of competition he played against and if his game could translate to the NFL. He also had some injuries in college so he was not a completely clean prospect. And again LA studied them both and chose Goff over Wentz (not saying they were right to do so but an NFL team that intensely studied these two quarterbacks ended up choosing Goff). 

 

So is there a quarterack(s) better than Wentz (prospect)? Scouting is subjective, especially when it comes to quarterbacks so I bet there are a bunch of teams who have Darnold and/or Rosen rated higher than they did Wentz. Remember, that Rosen was called the "chosen one" for a reason and Darnold was being hailed the next Andrew Luck (as a prospect) this time last year. The prospects at the top (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Allen) are very good prospects and to get that many in one year is a little unusual. The depth may be part of the explanation as it is hard to get a handle on who exactly is the best prospect amongst the top grouping. And since there is not a total consensus and there is a ton of nit picking of the prospects then it makes it seem like the top guys are not as good. Whereas, Goff and Wentz had distanced themselves from the rest of there qb class because it was not as good (overall). 

 

I'm excited about this group of quarterbacks. There is definitely elite level ability in the top 4 and then some very interesting prospects like Jackson and Rudolph who appear to be every bit the prospects that Tannehill, Locker, Ponder, Dalton etc. were. Plus, there is a nice grouping of day 2 and 3 prospects that have a chance to be solid starters or high end backups. 

Edited by racketmaster
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8 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I like Wentz a lot but he was also surrounded by an excellent coaching staff and a very talented supporting cast. Nick Foles is a solid qb and was plugged into that system and looked like an all-pro. Again, Wentz is a very promising young qb but he has yet to be asked to carry a team. 

 

 

 

I don't agree with you entire statement, but I do agree with this... This is the key right here... If you don't have this, it doesn't matter who you draft.

I'm for building the supporting cast before bringing in whoever you think is the franchise guy.

Edited by #34fan
slow eyes.
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I personally think all these QBs need to be put in a position to succeed by their teams. I have a hard time believing that none of the QBs drafted or playing for the Browns ever had potential. David Carr is my favorite example the guy had all the tools and was ruined by his teams lack of Oline. He never recovered and was an adequate backup the rest of his career. Derek Carr was put in a better situation and I believe will live up to what his older brother was supposed to be.

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3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Actually from what I've seen on film, you're describing Mayfield.  Mayfield tends to miss open guys downfield and squirt out of the pocket too soon.   He just doesn't use his legs as well as Jackson when he does.   I'm uncertain about his ability to read a D, find lanes, or make progressions.

 

I think you're wrong about Jackson being a taller Taylor.  Taylor at Virginia Tech had top passing yardage was 2700 yds his Sr year.  He had 315 pass attempts to 146 pass attempts, meaning 1 out of every 3 times he put his hands on the ball, he ran with it.  As far as I know, the Hokie offense was pretty much 1-read.  Taylor still struggles to read the field and make progressions.  He still doesn't throw with anticipation and he hesitates to throw into tight windows.

 

Jackson has a bunch of designed runs called for him, but he clearly reads a defense and makes progressions far more regularly (and better) than Taylor, or several other QB rated higher in the draft - Mayfield, Darnold, and Rudolph, I'd say.  He doesn't have much of an OL, so he does roll out and improv, but he also steps up into throwing lanes and moves around in the pocket to shed defenders when he has one.  His passing yardage is 3660 yds on 430 attempts which ~ Russ Wilson as a Jr.  Jackson has 232 rushing attempts this past season to 430 passes, which makes him similar to Taylor in running one out of every 3 times he puts his hands on the ball, but when he doesn't run, he's clearly ahead of where Taylor was as a Sr. in reads/progressions, throwing with anticipation, and throwing into tight windows.  His receivers are graded as "dropping" the ball the most of any of this year's top prospects: 11 or 12 percent drops, which I think explains his low completion %.  He is accurate.  Allen, whose low completion is being excused by drops and who is clearly not accurate at times, was 7 or 8% drops, Rosen is in-between.

 

Basically, Jackson has racked up similar passing numbers to Rosen (and far better than Allen) but then added the rushing contributions of a quality RB on top of it.  Reportedly he's a demon for work who shows up at 6 am to watch film.  He keeps his mouth shut (but has worked hard to improve his media ability) and is reportedly highly coachable.  He's clearly improved as a passer and a QB during his time at Louisville.  His passing mechanics and footwork are nowhere near as good as Rosen (or Mayfield), not even in the same conversation, but his natural arm is a-MAZ-ing. He flicks his wrist and the ball lasers out on a rope.  He needs to refine his lower body and mechanics, but so do Allen, Darnold, and Mayfield.  He's not as "pro ready" as a pocket-passing guy like White or Lauletta (who also have more polished mechanics), but he's got a far better arm (edit: and I've come to wonder if the pro-readiness of small program guys is illusory, because they don't know what they don't know (on reading NFL D) or what they can't do (on throwing into tight windows vs NFL DB)

 

I guess this makes me sound like a big Jackson fanboy, so I should make clear my top 2 QB choices are Rosen then Mayfield (because of better throwing mechanics and footwork at present).  But I think Jackson is under-rated and if the pundits keep dissing him off as "should be a WR or a RB" maybe we can get our hands on him without selling the farm.  And it's pissing me off to have him described as a WR.  He won the freakin' Heisman as a QB fergoshsakes!   Or to have people cite "injury concerns" for a guy who hasn't missed a game (because he runs).  Yeah, he should learn to slide.

Your assessment has caused me to reconsider my evaluation on Jackson....I'm going to go watch more film.

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15 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

Yes because they are totally the same player

Pretty much.

 

QB's who rely on their legs in college rarely if ever translate to the NFL. Durability is key. They need to be able to make throws consistently from the pocket. If the can't, they wont be around long. See RG3. 

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1 minute ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

Pretty much.

 

QB's who rely on their legs in college rarely if ever translate to the NFL. Durability is key. They need to be able to make throws consistently from the pocket. If the can't, they wont be around long. See RG3. 

Do more research

 

They are not the same player just because they have the same abilities.

 

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4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Actually from what I've seen on film, you're describing Mayfield.  Mayfield tends to miss open guys downfield and squirt out of the pocket too soon.   He just doesn't use his legs as well as Jackson when he does.   I'm uncertain about his ability to read a D, find lanes, or make progressions.

 

I think you're wrong about Jackson being a taller Taylor.  Taylor at Virginia Tech had top passing yardage was 2700 yds his Sr year.  He had 315 pass attempts to 146 pass attempts, meaning 1 out of every 3 times he put his hands on the ball, he ran with it.  As far as I know, the Hokie offense was pretty much 1-read.  Taylor still struggles to read the field and make progressions.  He still doesn't throw with anticipation and he hesitates to throw into tight windows.

 

Jackson has a bunch of designed runs called for him, but he clearly reads a defense and makes progressions far more regularly (and better) than Taylor, or several other QB rated higher in the draft - Mayfield, Darnold, and Rudolph, I'd say.  He doesn't have much of an OL, so he does roll out and improv, but he also steps up into throwing lanes and moves around in the pocket to shed defenders when he has one.  His passing yardage is 3660 yds on 430 attempts which ~ Russ Wilson as a Jr.  Jackson has 232 rushing attempts this past season to 430 passes, which makes him similar to Taylor in running one out of every 3 times he puts his hands on the ball, but when he doesn't run, he's clearly ahead of where Taylor was as a Sr. in reads/progressions, throwing with anticipation, and throwing into tight windows.  His receivers are graded as "dropping" the ball the most of any of this year's top prospects: 11 or 12 percent drops, which I think explains his low completion %.  He is accurate.  Allen, whose low completion is being excused by drops and who is clearly not accurate at times, was 7 or 8% drops, Rosen is in-between.

 

Basically, Jackson has racked up similar passing numbers to Rosen (and far better than Allen) but then added the rushing contributions of a quality RB on top of it.  Reportedly he's a demon for work who shows up at 6 am to watch film.  He keeps his mouth shut (but has worked hard to improve his media ability) and is reportedly highly coachable.  He's clearly improved as a passer and a QB during his time at Louisville.  His passing mechanics and footwork are nowhere near as good as Rosen (or Mayfield), not even in the same conversation, but his natural arm is a-MAZ-ing. He flicks his wrist and the ball lasers out on a rope.  He needs to refine his lower body and mechanics, but so do Allen, Darnold, and Mayfield.  He's not as "pro ready" as a pocket-passing guy like White or Lauletta (who also have more polished mechanics), but he's got a far better arm (edit: and I've come to wonder if the pro-readiness of small program guys is illusory, because they don't know what they don't know (on reading NFL D) or what they can't do (on throwing into tight windows vs NFL DB)

 

I guess this makes me sound like a big Jackson fanboy, so I should make clear my top 2 QB choices are Rosen then Mayfield (because of better throwing mechanics and footwork at present).  But I think Jackson is under-rated and if the pundits keep dissing him off as "should be a WR or a RB" maybe we can get our hands on him without selling the farm.  And it's pissing me off to have him described as a WR.  He won the freakin' Heisman as a QB fergoshsakes!   Or to have people cite "injury concerns" for a guy who hasn't missed a game (because he runs).  Yeah, he should learn to slide.

 

On point my man.

 

I do have injury concerns for Jackson just based on scrambling QBs injury history in the NFL.

Mobile, athletic, scrambling QBs as a whole have shorter career than most of the top end officer guys.

 

I don't think that's worth passing on Jackson if he's there btw because of this.

 

Anybody who says Jackson is tyrod 2.0 is either completely clueless, lazy, or just being dramatic. 

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3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm really coming around to this, but the point has been made, could we trust McDermott to develop him properly?

He did see Cam Newton "develop" in Carolina however Jackson is no Newton,  if we don't trade up for Rosen I prefer we stay at 21 and hopefully Rudolph falls to us. 

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57 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

With the exception of a problematic throwing motion, Carson Wentz was the most pro-ready QB I've seen since '98... Not even Rodgers looked that good.

I'm glad Mayock is telling the Truth... This draft features some promising QB talent in late rounds like LSU's Danny Etling, and Riley Ferguson from MEM...

We could save this years high picks for d-line and LB to strengthen those units

So sick and tired of this.  Tom Brady in the 6th was a once-in-a-lifetime event and this mindless hyping of "promising late round QBs"  has got to stop.

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1 hour ago, billsfan_34 said:

Kiper is a blowhard- and yes, he is wrong a whole lot more than right in regards to his mocks. No, I dont expect perfection, my point is all these mocks are shotty, and will be a little less shotty after FA. 

 

I'm guessing you're your favorite draftnik.

 

For the record, Mayock does one mock within a few days of the draft. And even getting 6-7 picks in the first round is considered good.

 

I would say these individuals are known for what they think of players, not necessarily where they slot them in a mock draft.  To use a broad brush and declare none of them worthwhile is absurd.

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I don't get all the dilly dilly in this thread.   

 

If Wentz were in this draft he'd be the top QB by a mile IMO.    Each one of this year's crop has at least one negative more pronounced than Wentz had in his draft year.  His top question mark was quality of competition, which is always a crap shoot.   But that's better than a mechanical/decision making/athletic issue if he isn't overwhelmed by playing at the next level.   

 

I believe that's all Mayock is saying, and I agree with him...

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