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Keep the picks or just get a QB?


Virgil

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Use the picks to build a solid team. Trading away picks for a QB is a huge dice roll that doesn't work in most cases. The NFL landscape is littered with "Savior" QBs who don't deliver. I think we all appreciate the fact that a Tom Brady behind a crap O Line is not effective...take the time and build a solid team first. 

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Further to this... the Houston trade last year from #25 to #12 cost them just their 2018 1st rounder.  Pick #12 by the trade chart is worth 1,200 points.  Pick 21 (if the Bills were to lose this weekend) is worth 800 points.  Pick #32 is worth 590 points so even if the Chiefs won the Superbowl (they won't) that would seem purely by the chart to be a price the Bills can afford without digging into their two seconds and their other picks later on.  

Didn’t we surrender one of our 2nds for KB? If so, it’s far more risky/detrimental to roll dice. Remember who we gave up to get these extra picks..

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5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think we’re a more attractive destination at this point. Pay that man whatever he wants and utilize the capital you’ve accumulated. Best way forward IMO.

Unfortunately, I don't think we will have the cap room to land Cousins without jeopardizing the rest of the roster.  We have a lot of dead cap from moves this year.  Doesn't that put us in a tight spot this offseason?

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27 minutes ago, KGun12TD said:

YOU GO AND  GET THE QB. Every year we keep having this convo "If we only had a QB."

 

Look at all the teams that win and win big - THEY ALL HAVE A  TOP FLIGHT QB. ALL OF THEM. 

 

We need a top flight QB to be a superbowl contender. Period.

 

Drew Brees was drafted in the 2nd rnd and we all know where TB went.

 

You only go all in if you really billieve in the guy,not just to take a top name to appease the fans.

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7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think we’re a more attractive destination at this point. Pay that man whatever he wants and utilize the capital you’ve accumulated. Best way forward IMO.

 

You might think that..... but I think given then choice he would go to Denver.  

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2 minutes ago, dulles said:

Unfortunately, I don't think we will have the cap room to land Cousins without jeopardizing the rest of the roster.  We have a lot of dead cap from moves this year.  Doesn't that put us in a tight spot this offseason?

We have over $10M more in cap room than Denver at current I believe, and that’s with Taylor’s contract still on the books.

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4 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

I like peterman and all, but if we take a QB in the first or even second round, I would hope he starts over peterman 

It would likely come down to another Training Camp competition, like how Taylor earned the starting role in 2015.

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You have to look at how Buffalo is building to see their plan for QB and it will not be to trade up for a QB if it means mortgaging the farm. This team has had a great first year with McBeane but the roster has some real holes on D in the front 7 and the Bills offense needs line help and at least a #2 WR plus backup RB and of course QB. If you have watched how calculated every move McBeane has made their goal will be to infuse the team with as much talent as possible this offseason to shore up these holes. If that means that for QB they have to grab Alex Smith or Keenum and wait another year so be it. The last thing they want to do is give the farm for a QB to a team that can't help set him up for success on both sides of the ball. In no way am I saying if they like Mayfield and he's available at 28 they wouldn't pick him or Rudolph in the 2nd etc.. but I just don't see this group in this draft pulling that kind of move. They have said they believe if their offense scores 24 pts that the defense can keep the otherside under that and win. That will only be emphasized more this offseason to strengthen that D.

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This is a playoff team right now. So I actually think that the Bills success this season could change the thought process of what they do. I think the original plan was when TT fails this year you're loaded with draft picks to go out and get your guy. If the team would have won 4-5 games this year its easy to make the transition and draft your franchise rookie QB. Even if you struggle next year you chalk it up since your grooming your guy.

 

Except the Bills made the playoffs and now I think the plan has to change. You can see Brady might be starting to wear down as the season goes on, and the Pats had an epic failure with trading away Brissett and Jimmy G. I actually think that the division is about to be up for grabs next year. You can address both sides of the ball with your draft picks and still upgrade the QB position with Smith or Cousins.

 

If you add Cousins and land 50% of your draft picks this is a 10 or 11 win team and can really push the pats for the division next season.

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6 hours ago, ganesh said:

This is going to be one crazy and fun draft this year. The Bills will NOT mortgage the farm and instead go the Veteran route by signing an Alex Smith and drafting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round.   It provides them a safer option and then use all those picks to get some blue chip players for defense and OL.   If it is really going to be true that 5 QBs will be taken in the top 10, then some real good prospects at other positions are going to slide down.

 

 

I don't get the Alex Smith talk.  Why would the Bills do this.  Alex Smith is going to get $20 million per year from some team.  He will cost more than TT & I don't think he is a better option.  Why not just keep TT at $18 million if you are going to do that. 

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7 hours ago, Virgil said:

With the announcements of Darnold and Rosen entering the draft, we now have at least 5 QB’s that will most likely go in the first round, maybe all in the top 10. 

 

Unfortunately, there’s a lot of quarterback hungry teams out there. 

 

If you aren’t in the top 5 and want one, I think the Colts are your chance to trade up, but that’s going to cost us a lot of our picks, if not all of them. 

 

So, for those who want one of those QBs, would you sacrifice all those other main picks for him or do you keep the picks, build a solid overall team, and hope for a QB that falls, FA, or next year?  

 

Personally, I’m torn because I would love to see a Mayfield here. But I think we could shore up almost every other position with all of our picks and get a lot better still.  Then either enter the Cousins sweepstakes or draft one next year when all these teams have their QBs. 

 

*I’m assuming most of our picks would be needed to trade from the 20’s to 3.  I’d guess both 1sts this year and next, our 2nd and 3rd this year as well. 

 

So we’d get Mayfield, a 2nd, 5th major pick this year.  Worth it?

No, Beane and McD will stay the course and keep to their plan. They want to build an overall team, not just draft a superstar QB. They can fill a lot of holes with all of the picks they have. Plus, in the last few drafts there have been at least one QB that has fallen out of the top 10 that expected to be drafted in one of those slots and it would make more sense for us to trade up from our mid 20's slot (or where ever we end up) up into the teens than into the top 10 or top 5. That gets to expensive with picks. 

Edited by BigPappy
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How is this even a question for anyone who knows anything about this franchise??

 

Of course the right thing to do is package picks and do whatever it takes to get a QB. If we don't get serious and do what it takes to get our guy, there is no point in watching next year. That is "same ol Bills" maintaining the status quo of being a 2nd rate team.

 

GET A QB!!

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7 hours ago, Virgil said:

With the announcements of Darnold and Rosen entering the draft, we now have at least 5 QB’s that will most likely go in the first round, maybe all in the top 10. 

 

Unfortunately, there’s a lot of quarterback hungry teams out there. 

 

If you aren’t in the top 5 and want one, I think the Colts are your chance to trade up, but that’s going to cost us a lot of our picks, if not all of them. 

 

So, for those who want one of those QBs, would you sacrifice all those other main picks for him or do you keep the picks, build a solid overall team, and hope for a QB that falls, FA, or next year?  

 

Personally, I’m torn because I would love to see a Mayfield here. But I think we could shore up almost every other position with all of our picks and get a lot better still.  Then either enter the Cousins sweepstakes or draft one next year when all these teams have their QBs. 

 

*I’m assuming most of our picks would be needed to trade from the 20’s to 3.  I’d guess both 1sts this year and next, our 2nd and 3rd this year as well. 

 

So we’d get Mayfield, a 2nd, 5th major pick this year.  Worth it?

He was arrested not too long ago, so I am certain he would never don the Bills logo. I do however believe the Bills will trade up for a QB if their top guy falls to 7 or 8 (only if they grade him out as a top 10 pick). If not, then they will stay put and snag whoever falls, or trades down further for future picks.

 

link:

 

Edited by ROONDOGG55
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4 hours ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

Take your shot to move up and grab your QB.  This is the first time in years we've had the ammo to pull something off and get a QB who can lead us for a decade or more.  I love this team and TT is incredible how he handled a difficult situation, but this isn't sustainable in the long-term without a QB.

lol, what isnt? barely making the playoffs once in 18 years as a sixth seed after 4 tie breakers with the other would be sixth seed??? 

 

good, i hope we dont keep sustaining that!

 

point is we need a qb but i say let one slide or trade the farm next year,  we can rebuild our lines and get a LB this year, but our picks will all be late 20's since we got them from the rams cheifs and phili.  so we wont be getting much for them in a trade up but tons of value in sliding players at the end of round 1 and 2.

 

next year we should be a better team and go 10-6 and at that point we can trade 2 firsts or whatever to get whoevers hot in 2019 if need be.

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Just now, ROONDOGG55 said:

He was arrested not too long ago, so I am certain he would never don the Bills logo. I do however believe the Bills will trade up for a QB if their top guy falls to 7 or 8 (only if they grade him out as a top 10 pick). If not, then they will stay put and snag whoever falls, or trades down further for future picks.

 

Will you be willing to give up both firsts this year, both seconds this year & your first next year to get into the top 5?  Because that is what it is going to take.  Rosen & Darnold are fine prospects but I don't think they are viewed by scouts as high as when Luck/RG III were coming out.  Both of those QBs were viewed as can't miss prospects.  I honestly don't think those 2 are viewed like that in NFL Circles. 

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27 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

we don't want another Losman situation here.

 

 

Of course not.

 

I'm just pointing out that 5 Qbs going in the top 10 is unlikely.

 

 

Aaron Rodgers happened in the same area that the Bills will be picking.

 

Teams never really seem to be as covetous of the QB fans of teams who lack a franchise QB fear will get away.

 

FTR, I'm all for the Bills moving up to get a QB if they feel that strongly about him.

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1 minute ago, Gordio said:

 

Will you be willing to give up both firsts this year, both seconds this year & your first next year to get into the top 5?  Because that is what it is going to take.  Rosen & Darnold are fine prospects but I don't think they are viewed by scouts as high as when Luck/RG III were coming out.  Both of those QBs were viewed as can't miss prospects.  I honestly don't think those 2 are viewed like that in NFL Circles. 

Bills brass won't mortgage the future as they've stated time and again that they will build for now and the future. So, in my eyes the most logical move for them is to trade the two 1st round picks to get up to 7 or 8. with the trade value chart (http://www.ourlads.com/nfldraftvalue/) both of their picks combined are 1520 points while 7 (Bucs) and 8 (Bears) are worth 1500 and 1400. My guess is that the Bucs and Bears would want a little more especially if we're in a bidding war with another team. Trading up to 6 would almost certainly be too steep of a price with it being the Jets, and I doubt we would give up additional picks to move up into the top 5.

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4 minutes ago, ROONDOGG55 said:

Bills brass won't mortgage the future as they've stated time and again that they will build for now and the future. So, in my eyes the most logical move for them is to trade the two 1st round picks to get up to 7 or 8. with the trade value chart (http://www.ourlads.com/nfldraftvalue/) both of their picks combined are 1520 points while 7 (Bucs) and 8 (Bears) are worth 1500 and 1400. My guess is that the Bucs and Bears would want a little more especially if we're in a bidding war with another team. Trading up to 6 would almost certainly be too steep of a price with it being the Jets, and I doubt we would give up additional picks to move up into the top 5.

 

I agree with this. Also keep in mind we have 2 2nd round picks. We could package both 1sts and a 2nd, and get up to #4-#5 and still have a 2nd round pick of our own. We'd still walk out of the draft with 7 picks, including a franchise QB.

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I'm in the keep the picks camp, Build the Trenches and take a developmental guy.  We might have to do that anyway.  I don't see the Browns trading the #1 pick nor the Giants the #2.  They set themselves up for Rosen/Darnald.  The only hope we can have is if the Browns prefer a vet instead and sign Cousins.  If they don't they are taking Darnold/Rosen.  And the Giants will take the next guy.  

 

I'm just imagining the team we could build with all those picks rather than throwing too many of them at one guy.

Edited by NewEraBills
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At this point I think Rudolph is the guy, and I can see them moving into the mid teens to get him. I don't see a trade up much higher than that due to cost. We are likely to end up with a vet, Peterman, and Rudolph heading into camp imo. If they spend bigger on a vet they may pass on QB and get the QB of their D at MLB, as that is also a big priority for the team.

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25 minutes ago, ROONDOGG55 said:

Bills brass won't mortgage the future as they've stated time and again that they will build for now and the future. So, in my eyes the most logical move for them is to trade the two 1st round picks to get up to 7 or 8. with the trade value chart (http://www.ourlads.com/nfldraftvalue/) both of their picks combined are 1520 points while 7 (Bucs) and 8 (Bears) are worth 1500 and 1400. My guess is that the Bucs and Bears would want a little more especially if we're in a bidding war with another team. Trading up to 6 would almost certainly be too steep of a price with it being the Jets, and I doubt we would give up additional picks to move up into the top 5.

 

This is where I am.

 

I love TT as a person, but he's not the guy. I wish he was.

 

In the coming draft, if the Bills believe X is the guy, get THE guy. We have the ammo to move up. Trading back in last years draft was specifically for the purpose of moving up this year. So was the Darby trade for a 2nd rounder. Now is the time to move up. As mentioned above, we can trade up for a QB and still have a decent amount of picks left to fill out the roster. I expect such a move to cost both #1s. If I have to toss in an additional  #2 OR a #3, then I'm OK with that too. 

 

I am not in the "we're close, so sign a veteran free agent qb and fill our other needs in the draft" camp. In any case, the free agency period will be very telling this year. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Pete said:

Keep the picks!  Let the QB fall to us.  IMO pass rushers are a much bigger need for us. I am all for a trade down or two or three as well.  

      I agree.  This team has a lot of needs.  It would be nice to see both the offensive and defensive lines get improved.

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We need to draft a QB I'm ok with a move upward still, but it looks like we will not have ot move to far to grab a decent prospect. I don't see us giving up the farm to move into the top 5

 

A vet / FA QB is also an option but I would not be paying Cousins or Smith a $100m contract

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52 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I agree with this. Also keep in mind we have 2 2nd round picks. We could package both 1sts and a 2nd, and get up to #4-#5 and still have a 2nd round pick of our own. We'd still walk out of the draft with 7 picks, including a franchise QB.

Definitely can be done, but I hope we keep as many picks as possible. Even though we managed to make the playoffs, we have a bunch of holes going into the offseason.

21 minutes ago, I_want_2_BILL_Lieve said:

 

This is where I am.

 

I love TT as a person, but he's not the guy. I wish he was.

 

In the coming draft, if the Bills believe X is the guy, get THE guy. We have the ammo to move up. Trading back in last years draft was specifically for the purpose of moving up this year. So was the Darby trade for a 2nd rounder. Now is the time to move up. As mentioned above, we can trade up for a QB and still have a decent amount of picks left to fill out the roster. I expect such a move to cost both #1s. If I have to toss in an additional  #2 OR a #3, then I'm OK with that too. 

 

I am not in the "we're close, so sign a veteran free agent qb and fill our other needs in the draft" camp. In any case, the free agency period will be very telling this year. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure the goal of adding additional draft picks is to move up the following year. If the opportunity presents itself and you have the ammo, then by all means trade up. I just think the reasoning for the additional picks is to add players of their liking. They obviously weren't thrilled with those guys that were traded.

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Important to realize that Tyrod helps mask some of the problems on the OL. He often escapes where most other QBs would get sacked or rush throws (ala Peterman's horrendous half). You could draft the #1 QB, but without a solid OL, they'll be toast too. The big uglies is where it needs to start. Hoping for a couple big monsters to solidify that group. OT, OG, and may even need a center (Wood is adequate for now, but likely not for long). 

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7 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

Important to realize that Tyrod helps mask some of the problems on the OL. He often escapes where most other QBs would get sacked or rush throws (ala Peterman's horrendous half). You could draft the #1 QB, but without a solid OL, they'll be toast too. The big uglies is where it needs to start. Hoping for a couple big monsters to solidify that group. OT, OG, and may even need a center (Wood is adequate for now, but likely not for long). 

 

Yes and no. For as many problems that Tyrod masks with his feet, he creates an equal amount by refusing to throw the ball with timing when he should. Tyrod has plenty of opportunity to take the snap, wait a beat, and deliver the ball to a spot like a professional offensive scheme calls for. But he holds the ball waiting to see a wide open WR, protection breaks down, and then he is scrambling. So his legs are really getting him out of his own trouble.

 

Out of all QBs, Tyrod has the longest "Time Before Throw" count at 3.13sec. To put that in perspective, Carr has the shortest with something like 1.3sec.

 

The sweet spot would be if Taylor would step up and rip it around the 2sec mark, but he refuses to.

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