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Keep the picks or just get a QB?


Virgil

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Trade for Smith, then beef up that front 7. 

If we can gear up a pass rush + stiffen against the run, our already effective DBs will take over games.

 

Smith is every bit as good as Taylor in protecting the ball, but much more talented.

 

 

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1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I agree with this. Also keep in mind we have 2 2nd round picks. We could package both 1sts and a 2nd, and get up to #4-#5 and still have a 2nd round pick of our own. We'd still walk out of the draft with 7 picks, including a franchise QB.

If it was a sure thing, yes.  BUT only about a third of 1st round QB's ever work out (e.g. make it to the playoffs one time).

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1 hour ago, I_want_2_BILL_Lieve said:

 

This is where I am.

 

I love TT as a person, but he's not the guy. I wish he was.

 

In the coming draft, if the Bills believe X is the guy, get THE guy. We have the ammo to move up. Trading back in last years draft was specifically for the purpose of moving up this year. So was the Darby trade for a 2nd rounder. Now is the time to move up. As mentioned above, we can trade up for a QB and still have a decent amount of picks left to fill out the roster. I expect such a move to cost both #1s. If I have to toss in an additional  #2 OR a #3, then I'm OK with that too. 

 

I am not in the "we're close, so sign a veteran free agent qb and fill our other needs in the draft" camp. In any case, the free agency period will be very telling this year. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Are you sure about that?   My impression is that the "plan" was to first improve the overall quality of the team by getting a lot of draft picks in the top 3 rounds.  So we traded away some veteran and good quality Bills to pick up younger players who would mature and reach their peak together.   I don't recall that the trading back was mean to supply ammunition for a swoop up for a QB.  Did I miss something that you can quote? :)

 

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1 hour ago, ROONDOGG55 said:

I'm not sure the goal of adding additional draft picks is to move up the following year. If the opportunity presents itself and you have the ammo, then by all means trade up. I just think the reasoning for the additional picks is to add players of their liking. They obviously weren't thrilled with those guys that were traded.

 

If it wasn't then it should have been in my opinion. We traded out of a spot with good Quarterback prospects available and on the board to gain another 1st round pick. That can only be justified if you see that pick as currency to move up if you need to in order to secure the Quarterback of the future.  

 

I didn't hate the trade back last year, as much as I'd have stayed put and selected Watson, we got an extra 1st in a year when the QB class is good and reasonably deep and we got a player I liked a lot as a prospect in Tre White. If, however, we forego good Quarterback prospects again this draft to pick two positional players I will sour on that initial trade back.  

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18 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Are you sure about that?   My impression is that the "plan" was to first improve the overall quality of the team by getting a lot of draft picks in the top 3 rounds.  So we traded away some veteran and good quality Bills to pick up younger players who would mature and reach their peak together.   I don't recall that the trading back was mean to supply ammunition for a swoop up for a QB.  Did I miss something that you can quote? :)

 

 

I think it was pretty much common knowledge that this years draft was QB deep. Was it THE plan or was it one of many potential outcomes? I don't know. I do know the organizations was not sold on TT, and most experts had us at 4-6 wins. I think we were planning ahead and going for a qb this year. 

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If the cost is both 1st rounder this year, the Bills 2nd, and the Bills 1st next year plus some additional mid-round picks, then I would highly consider it for one of the top 3 QB's in this years draft. Yes that would be gutting the teams draft this year and hurting their draft badly next year. But the Bills would still have a late 2nd and late 3rd round pick in 2018 and only lose 1 pick in 2019. That's not the worst cost to pay for a top QB prospect. However if the cost goes much steeper than that I would have to consider passing and just building the team around Tyrod and drafting a QB later. 

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1 minute ago, I_want_2_BILL_Lieve said:

 

I think it was pretty much common knowledge that this years draft was QB deep. Was it THE plan or was it one of many potential outcomes? I don't know. I do know the organizations was not sold on TT, and most experts had us at 4-6 wins. I think we were planning ahead and going for a qb this year. 

 

agree with this, but with that said, I kind of hope the FO realizes the plan has changed because we "won ourselves out of a top QB". I think I would prefer to stay put and use those picks to upgrade the entire team, INCLUDING QB if they like a guy. If they like Rudolph (I don't) and hes still on the board then take him with one of those picks. If they like a guy who is falling, then use resources to take that guy. I dont see us trading up to take one of the top two QBs because the cost will just be too much

 

Build this team through draft and FA at all positions, including QB 

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44 minutes ago, hemma said:

Trade for Smith, then beef up that front 7. 

If we can gear up a pass rush + stiffen against the run, our already effective DBs will take over games.

 

Smith is every bit as good as Taylor in protecting the ball, but much more talented.

 

 

 

 

At that point, I would rather have the younger game manager who is a little bit cheaper and already on the roster in Tyrod. Either the team makes a big trade for a top 3 QB in the draft or they build around Tyrod. Cousins and any other trade/free agent option isn't that significant of an upgrade over Tyrod in my opinion. 

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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If it wasn't then it should have been in my opinion. We traded out of a spot with good Quarterback prospects available and on the board to gain another 1st round pick. That can only be justified if you see that pick as currency to move up if you need to in order to secure the Quarterback of the future.  

 

I didn't hate the trade back last year, as much as I'd have stayed put and selected Watson, we got an extra 1st in a year when the QB class is good and reasonably deep and we got a player I liked a lot as a prospect in Tre White. If, however, we forego good Quarterback prospects again this draft to pick two positional players I will sour on that initial trade back.  

 

Agreed 100%. And if we dont come away with a QB, I'll sour on McBeane and the entire franchise.

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IMO Got to get one of the top 5 QBs, I really hope OBD finaly steps up and makes a move for one. I love we got a miracle season into the playoffs this season but to be a great team we need a great QB to lead the way.

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depending on Sunday, Id keep Tyrod for one more year and be willing to trade both 1st round picks to move up.  I would not give up too much to move up as the team as plenty of holes to patch.  I say sit and wait and see if a QB comes to you.  Bills drafted plenty of 1st round QB's and outside of #12, they weren't worth spit.

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I would only trade the farm from 20 to 3 to land Darnold or Rosen. Also, I think we upset the Jags so it will be more like 24 to 3. K.C. will probably beat Tennessee and lost to Pittsburgh. So we will have something like the 24th and 25th picks.

 

Something tells me these guys like Peterman a lot more than we do. I think they are comfortable keeping the picks and taking a DT, LB and OL with their first three picks.

9 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Meh. I think I’d rather keep tyrod then roll the dice with Smith. He’s another guy who doesn’t want to throw the ball down the field

By traditional QB standards perhaps but he'll still do it more than our current guy. He's basically Taylor but he makes quicker reads. That makes Smith a little better IMO.

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3 minutes ago, DCBongo said:

depending on Sunday, Id keep Tyrod for one more year and be willing to trade both 1st round picks to move up.  I would not give up too much to move up as the team as plenty of holes to patch.  I say sit and wait and see if a QB comes to you.  Bills drafted plenty of 1st round QB's and outside of #12, they weren't worth spit.

They drafted plenty in the 1st? How many since Kelly? How many did they move up for? 

Waiting for one to fall, taking what is left, sounds like the last few decades. Taking the QBs that fell to us is more then likely the reason the ones we got werent worth spit.

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3 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

They drafted plenty in the 1st? How many since Kelly? How many did they move up for? 

Waiting for one to fall, taking what is left, sounds like the last few decades. Taking the QBs that fell to us is more then likely the reason the ones we got werent worth spit.

 

Isn't it just two in the first since Kelly?  Losman (traded up) and EJ (traded down)?  Just goes to show it isn't about whether you give up picks or gain picks or stand pat it is about good talent evaluation.  If the Bills spend both 1sts and a 2nd on a QB after a trade up and it turns out it is the right QB then the trade up will never ever matter because it is easily worth the cost.  If they trade back get another extra 2nd and then pick the wrong QB the extra picks are worthless as well.... because they will be no closer to solving the most important position on the team.  

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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You might think that..... but I think given then choice he would go to Denver.  

I'm in the DC/Md area. The talk is that Denver is willing to aggressively go after Cousins. The Redskins are now more open to dealing him if he isn't willing to sing with them. It appears that because Cousins doesn't want to be in Washington the organization is willing to get a deal done. It is getting tired of being strung out by the qb. 

 

You and I have been in sync on the qb issue. We had the opportunity to select either Watkins or Mahomes with our first round pick last year. It was a mistake to let that opportunity pass. Ask Cleveland if they regret passing on Goff, Wentz or Watkisn (with their second first round pick last year)? Now we are discussing how much to give up to acquire a high end prospect in the draft. This dilatory approach to the qb position has handcuffed this franchise for so long that it has become part of the fabric of the operation. 

 

I'm not wedded to any qb. But assuming that Darnold or Rosen are not available I'm getting more intrigued with Mayfield. His production is off the charts. I believe that he can play sooner than most of the prospects in this class. 

 

Let's be clear that getting a good qb prospect on board is not going to instantly elevate this team. It takes time to develop the prospect. And more importantly this team has plenty of needs to address before the Bills can become a serious team. Without a doubt the direction is positive and the organizational structure is in place to move forward. 

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Please no to Alex Smith aka Trent Edwards! I’d rather keep Taylor. Improve the roster with your draft capital and move up into the teens if necessary for a QB. With Cousins, Manning, Bridgewater, Smith, Keenum and Bradford potentially all available it will push some QB’s down. If somehow Baker is there mid teens go get him! Guy just looks like a Buffalo Bill and you don’t lose much of your draft capital!

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Since we are not likely getting one of the top QBs regardless, keep the picks, use the draft and FA to fill the needs. Get a vet who can start and mentor. Stay put and draft a developmental guy with good size, a big accurate arm and good intangibles (like the kid from W. Kentucky). And next year we challenge for the division. JMO.

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7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Isn't it just two in the first since Kelly?  Losman (traded up) and EJ (traded down)?  Just goes to show it isn't about whether you give up picks or gain picks or stand pat it is about good talent evaluation.  If the Bills spend both 1sts and a 2nd on a QB after a trade up and it turns out it is the right QB then the trade up will never ever matter because it is easily worth the cost.  If they trade back get another extra 2nd and then pick the wrong QB the extra picks are worthless as well.... because they will be no closer to solving the most important position on the team.  

I want to see them make a move for a top prospect QB, they have the picks and it is a good draft to pick one so I have my fingers crossed they move up to grab one of the top dogs this draft as oppose to waiting a couple rounds to grab the scraps left in the later rounds to get another Peterman longshot talent.

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27 minutes ago, DCBongo said:

depending on Sunday, Id keep Tyrod for one more year and be willing to trade both 1st round picks to move up.  I would not give up too much to move up as the team as plenty of holes to patch.  I say sit and wait and see if a QB comes to you.  Bills drafted plenty of 1st round QB's and outside of #12, they weren't worth spit.

 

This is incorrect. In the entire history of the franchise, the Bills have drafted 3 1st round QBs, NONE with their first or original 1st round pick.

 

Kelly was their second 1st round pick of the day.

Losman came after they didnt offer enough to move up to get Big Ben, and after they picked Lee Evans.

EJ was a trade down (a smart move in a QB-weak draft)

 

That's it.

 

This franchise has never once taken the QB position seriously, and it shows in it's overall status. Time to get serious when you are sitting on a ton of draft capital going into one of the best QB classes in over a decade.

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10 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Darnold looks so much like a Sanchez/Leinart bust, it's scary

The one key thing that separates him is his arm. Sanchez and especially Leinart just never possessed that kind of arm. 

 

That said, he’s got a LONG development road ahead of him. He needs to go to a team that will let him carry a clipboard and let him learn. 

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get a QB.  We need dominance so we dont' have to squeek into the playoffs every year.  A strong defense and Tyrod may give us 9-7 or 10-6 seasons but that isn't enough.  We need first round byes and home games again!!!!

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3 minutes ago, kota said:

get a QB.  We need dominance so we dont' have to squeek into the playoffs every year.  A strong defense and Tyrod may give us 9-7 or 10-6 seasons but that isn't enough.  We need first round byes and home games again!!!!

We need to get this team to a playoff level not wish for a miracle that another team can help us get in. It took a few decades for it to happen once.

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2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

This is incorrect. In the entire history of the franchise, the Bills have drafted 3 1st round QBs, NONE with their first or original 1st round pick.

 

Kelly was their second 1st round pick of the day.

Losman came after they didnt offer enough to move up to get Big Ben, and after they picked Lee Evans.

EJ was a trade down (a smart move in a QB-weak draft)

 

That's it.

 

This franchise has never once taken the QB position seriously, and it shows in it's overall status. Time to get serious when you are sitting on a ton of draft capital going into one of the best QB classes in over a decade.

We need to include the #1 picks invested in trades as well. That’s not saying we shouldn’t have invested more over the years, just that we’ve invested more #1s into the QB position than meets the eye. 

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29 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Since we are not likely getting one of the top QBs regardless, keep the picks, use the draft and FA to fill the needs. Get a vet who can start and mentor. Stay put and draft a developmental guy with good size, a big accurate arm and good intangibles (like the kid from W. Kentucky). And next year we challenge for the division. JMO.

 

I'm not trying to pick on you here, but you realize what you outlined as a "developmental guy", is pretty close to a franchise caliber QB that goes in the top 10? 

  • Good size
  • Big arm
  • Accurate
  • Intangibles / Leadership

There's not much left except for Pro Style Offense experience and history of using audibles at the line....which very, very few do. So, if you're taking a "developmental guy", you're probably taking a guy who is missing the big arm or the accuracy or the size....I don't think you can teach or coach too much of the intangibles, to some degree, but either you have good character by the time you enter the NFL, or you don't....

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4 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

I'm not trying to pick on you here, but you realize what you outlined as a "developmental guy", pretty is a franchise caliber QB that goes in the top 10? 

  • Good size
  • Big arm
  • Accurate
  • Intangibles / Leadership

There's not much left except for Pro Style Offense experience and history of using audibles at the line....which very, very few do. So, if you're taking a "developmental guy", you're probably taking a guy who is missing the big arm or the accuracy or the size....I don't think you can teach or coach too much of the intangibles, to some degree, but either you have good character by the time you enter the NFL, or you don't....

 

Mike White. Bills like him. Even if he's a draft riser he should be available late first or maybe even in the second.

Rosen and Darnold are gone. I'm not packaging a bunch of first round picks and maybe some second(s) for Allen, Rudolph, Mayfield. Too many flaws to justify it IMO. Too many holes to fill. I'd rather see Roquan Smith, Marcell Ateman, Vita Vea type guys than say Rudolph, whose ceiling (assuming he can transition) is Andy Dalton, and whose floor is Bryce Petty. JMO.

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16 minutes ago, K-9 said:

We need to include the #1 picks invested in trades as well. That’s not saying we shouldn’t have invested more over the years, just that we’ve invested more #1s into the QB position than meets the eye. 

 

Good point:

 

Blew a 2005 1st round pick in the trade-in to get Losman

Sent a 1st to New England for an over the hill Bledsoe

Blew a 1st on Rob Johnson in 1998

 

All this shows me is how poor Ralph's organization was a valuing and finding QBs. Let's get serious for once.

 

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16 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

 

Mike White. Bills like him. Even if he's a draft riser he should be available late first or maybe even in the second.

Rosen and Darnold are gone. I'm not packaging a bunch of first round picks and maybe some second(s) for Allen, Rudolph, Mayfield. Too many flaws to justify it IMO. Too many holes to fill. I'd rather see Roquan Smith, Marcell Ateman, Vita Vea type guys than say Rudolph, whose ceiling (assuming he can transition) is Andy Dalton, and whose floor is Bryce Petty. JMO.

 

And that may be the way to go, I'm not offering my opinion on what I think the Bills should do until FA comes around the Draft is just days away, I was merely pointing out that it seems incongruent to place the tag of "developmental guy" and then list those qualities that make him developmental when those same qualities nearly make him a top 10 QB....so, if we're going to take a developmental guy, he will need to have a larger issue with his quarterbacking skills than some other unknown. If his arm is elite, his accuracy is good to elite, he's a good leader and has the intangibles and is of prototypical NFL QB size, there's not much left to make him a developmental guy, that was my only point. 

 

Edit: in looking through some scouting reviews, so it's not just my take, Mike White's arm is about average, so I would have to disagree that he has a "big" arm, which explains why he's currently projected to go somewhere between the 6th round and UDFA.

Edited by BigBuff423
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10 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Darnold looks so much like a Sanchez/Leinart bust, it's scary

 

This draft could totally be like the 2012 draft where the most successful QB to date has ended up being some third round unknown “not ‘something’ enough guy” 

 

with a litany of busts along the way. 

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2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Good point:

 

Blew a 2005 1st round pick in the trade-in to get Losman

Sent a 1st to New England for an over the hill Bledsoe

Blew a 1st on Rob Johnson in 1998

 

All this shows me is how poor Ralph's organization was a valuing and finding QBs. Let's get serious for once.

 

So two on Losman and one each on Rojo and Bedsore. Four in 20 years. How does that compare to others around the league, I wonder? 

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