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Keep the picks or just get a QB?


Virgil

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With the announcements of Darnold and Rosen entering the draft, we now have at least 5 QB’s that will most likely go in the first round, maybe all in the top 10. 

 

Unfortunately, there’s a lot of quarterback hungry teams out there. 

 

If you aren’t in the top 5 and want one, I think the Colts are your chance to trade up, but that’s going to cost us a lot of our picks, if not all of them. 

 

So, for those who want one of those QBs, would you sacrifice all those other main picks for him or do you keep the picks, build a solid overall team, and hope for a QB that falls, FA, or next year?  

 

Personally, I’m torn because I would love to see a Mayfield here. But I think we could shore up almost every other position with all of our picks and get a lot better still.  Then either enter the Cousins sweepstakes or draft one next year when all these teams have their QBs. 

 

*I’m assuming most of our picks would be needed to trade from the 20’s to 3.  I’d guess both 1sts this year and next, our 2nd and 3rd this year as well. 

 

So we’d get Mayfield, a 2nd, 5th major pick this year.  Worth it?

Edited by Virgil
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Don’t underestimate teams trading up. 

 

In your top 10 right now you have the Browns, Giants, and Jets.  They could and should all go QB. Thankfully the 49ers are set now. 

 

But don’t discount the Redskins, Cardinals, or Cardinals trading up. 

 

Everyone is going to want their guy and at least 4 of them could the top ranked player on a teams board.  

 

I think it’s going to be a frenzy with the most trades we’ve seen so far. The Colts, Browns, and 49ers could all be looking to trade back and get picks. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Don’t underestimate teams trading up. 

 

In your top 10 right now you have the Browns, Giants, and Jets.  They could and should all go QB. Thankfully the 49ers are set now. 

 

But don’t discount the Redskins, Cardinals, or Cardinals trading up. 

 

Everyone is going to want their guy and at least 4 of them could the top ranked player on a teams board.  

 

I think it’s going to be a frenzy with the most trades we’ve seen so far. The Colts, Browns, and 49ers could all be looking to trade back and get picks. 

 

We also still have free agency coming up before the draft. A few of those QB needy teams will fill their need there. All 3 QBs in Minnesota are set to be free agents and they won’t keep all of them. Alex Smith will most likely be available. Cousins is obviously the big fish, then you got tyrod who could possibly be let go, Eli Manning possibly, and a couple other potential starters. Should be interesting 

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35 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Personally, I’m torn because I would love to see a Mayfield here. But I think we could shore up almost every other position with all of our picks and get a lot better still.  Then either enter the Grossman sweepstakes or draft one next year when all these teams have their QBs. 

I don't know.  He's 37 years old and I'm not even sure if he's an upgrade over Taylor.

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4 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

We also still have free agency coming up before the draft. A few of those QB needy teams will fill their need there. All 3 QBs in Minnesota are set to be free agents and they won’t keep all of them. Alex Smith will most likely be available. Cousins is obviously the big fish, then you got tyrod who could possibly be let go, Eli Manning possibly, and a couple other potential starters. Should be interesting 

This is going to be one crazy and fun draft this year. The Bills will NOT mortgage the farm and instead go the Veteran route by signing an Alex Smith and drafting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round.   It provides them a safer option and then use all those picks to get some blue chip players for defense and OL.   If it is really going to be true that 5 QBs will be taken in the top 10, then some real good prospects at other positions are going to slide down.

Edited by ganesh
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5 minutes ago, ganesh said:

This is going to be one crazy and fun draft this year. The Bills will NOT mortgage the farm and instead go the Veteran route by signing an Alex Smith and drafting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round.   It provides them a safer option and then use all those picks to get some blue chip players for defense and OL.   If it is really going to be true that 5 QBs will be taken in the top 10, then some real good prospects at other positions are going to slide down.

Meh. I think I’d rather keep tyrod then roll the dice with Smith. He’s another guy who doesn’t want to throw the ball down the field

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7 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Meh. I think I’d rather keep tyrod then roll the dice with Smith. He’s another guy who doesn’t want to throw the ball down the field

He threw for over 4,000 yards this year with 26 td's and 5 int's.  Those are above his career average so you can't expect that from him again, but I consider him an upgrade over Taylor.  We'd have to pry trade for him though and outbid a couple of teams if KC decides to move on.

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14 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Meh. I think I’d rather keep tyrod then roll the dice with Smith. He’s another guy who doesn’t want to throw the ball down the field

I never heard of that.  At one point Alex Smith was leading the league in # of completions over 20 yards!

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I am a fan of going for a QB until you find one. This league has proven that you need an elite QB to sustain real success. There are a few instances that you can get lucky with a average QB but most of the time it is the same QB's that are in the superbowl. Lots of Mannings, Brady's, Wilson, Big Ben. 

 

 

Last 10 Superbowls

51 Brady vs Matt Ryan

50 Manning vs Newton

49 Brady vs Wilson

48 Manning vs Wilson

47 Flacco vs Kaepernick (***WTF aberration)

46 Brady vs Eli Manning

45 Rodgers vs Roethlisberger

44 Manning vs Brees

43 Warner vs Roethlisberger

42 Brady vs Eli Manning

41 Manning vs Rex Grossman (another headscratcher)

 

I know some people are wanting Smith. He's a good QB. Not a great one. He is the type of QB that needs a ton of talent around him to win and things to go right. He's good enough to consistently win 9-11 games but he's not elite. He has vision issues and below average pocket awareness and needs a strong coordinator. It's frustrating because multiple times a game there will be a wide open receiver behind the defense and he has no clue. He has shown, finally, that he can throw the deep ball this year but struggles with intermediate throws outside the hash marks. He is a great QB to stabilize a franchise until you can draft and develop a QB though. He's very tough and a team leader.  

 

Regardless, if you trade for Smith or can land Cousins then hope you draft a QB to sit and learn and hope he is the real deal. If he isn't in a few years, draft another. As a Chiefs fan, I truly believe, that Mahomes will be special.  Every year since I could remember, I have always wished that they would take a chance at a QB and try until you hit. 

 

 

 

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Any idea how high we can trade up by only using our 2 first round picks?

 

I reckon we see if one of the good QBs falls to whatever position those two picks can get us. I really don't think they should give up much more than that.  (But if they do... oh boy!!)

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20 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Keep the picks AND get a QB. Have him sit behind Peterman for a bit, if necessary. I like Rudolph in the late first, if he's there.

I like peterman and all, but if we take a QB in the first or even second round, I would hope he starts over peterman 

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Take your shot to move up and grab your QB.  This is the first time in years we've had the ammo to pull something off and get a QB who can lead us for a decade or more.  I love this team and TT is incredible how he handled a difficult situation, but this isn't sustainable in the long-term without a QB.

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There will not be 5 QBs in the top 10. My guess is Rosen goes #1, Darnold goes top 5 (the Giants are in play at #2 but are not a lock to go QB). 

 

There is a chance a 3rd Quarterback goes in the top 10 - most likely to the Jets at 6. I think the Broncos are going to go hard for Cousins or Manning in FA that is a vet team that still thinks it is in win now mode. It's not but it thinks it is. Do the Jets like Mayfield enough to pick him at 6? Maybe they are one of the teams who like Josh Allen?

 

Now I do see a trade up in play for the Bills.... but not into the top 10. I see them in a Houston style trade up into the teens. That is much more affordable and much more the range where they might still be in play for a Rudolph, Allen or Mayfield. Personally I hope its not Allen but I expect 2 of those 3 to be available outside the top 10. Washington at 13 and Arizona at 15 are the next teams likely to be big players in the QB market. 

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Darnold & Rosen aren’t ‘McBeane Types’, if last years Draft was any indication. All our picks were 4 year starters, team captains and conference recognition plaudits. The deck is stacked against underclass QB’s delivering Pro Bowl seasons in the  Bigs. I think they’re not going to be on the Bills Board, which is fine as their likely early selections push ‘our guys’ closer to our picks. 

I have no idea who ‘our guys’ are, but we have great Draft capital and some big holes to fill roster-wide. I hope we don’t mess with our Draft bank.

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58 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Darnold & Rosen aren’t ‘McBeane Types’, if last years Draft was any indication. All our picks were 4 year starters, team captains and conference recognition plaudits. The deck is stacked against underclass QB’s delivering Pro Bowl seasons in the  Bigs. I think they’re not going to be on the Bills Board, which is fine as their likely early selections push ‘our guys’ closer to our picks. 

I have no idea who ‘our guys’ are, but we have great Draft capital and some big holes to fill roster-wide. I hope we don’t mess with our Draft bank.

 

Mason Rudolph is a senior, he has been a 3 year starter, he has improved year on year, has been a team captain in 2016 and 2017 and he plays from the pocket in the way Beane has described.  Maybe Beane and Gaines were at the Camping Bowl by coincidence...... but I think the white smoke at this stage suggests that Mason Rudolph is very much in play for the Bills in April.

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Now I do see a trade up in play for the Bills.... but not into the top 10. I see them in a Houston style trade up into the teens. That is much more affordable and much more the range where they might still be in play for a Rudolph, Allen or Mayfield. Personally I hope its not Allen but I expect 2 of those 3 to be available outside the top 10. Washington at 13 and Arizona at 15 are the next teams likely to be big players in the QB market. 

 

Further to this... the Houston trade last year from #25 to #12 cost them just their 2018 1st rounder.  Pick #12 by the trade chart is worth 1,200 points.  Pick 21 (if the Bills were to lose this weekend) is worth 800 points.  Pick #32 is worth 590 points so even if the Chiefs won the Superbowl (they won't) that would seem purely by the chart to be a price the Bills can afford without digging into their two seconds and their other picks later on.  

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4 hours ago, Virgil said:

Don’t underestimate teams trading up. 

 

In your top 10 right now you have the Browns, Giants, and Jets.  They could and should all go QB. Thankfully the 49ers are set now. 

 

But don’t discount the Redskins, Cardinals, or Cardinals trading up. 

 

Everyone is going to want their guy and at least 4 of them could the top ranked player on a teams board.  

 

I think it’s going to be a frenzy with the most trades we’ve seen so far. The Colts, Browns, and 49ers could all be looking to trade back and get picks. 

 

 

Or the Cardinals.  They could trade up too.

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they need the picks.  if them and/or the chiefs were lower in the standings i could be enticed to trade up.  not now.  

 

i would go with alex smith maybe to bridge another year (or tyrod)... and if they still see some potential in peterman, or if their scouts have identified an off the radar qb that has the mental goods... they can have on the shelf for a year or 2 to season.  

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The Bills have a plan and need to wait and see how things shake out. Several good FA's may be available and I think that is their preferred course as well as drafting a QB if one falls into their lap that they like. I don't think anyone can say for sure at this point.

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GET THE QB AT ALL COSTS. 

 

I’m sick of the Bills spending their time trying to concoct ways to win without a QB rather than spending their time trying to figure out how to get a QB. 

 

Im excited. There are stellar options this year. Cousins, Keemun, and the Draft all present solid options. 

 

We can bundle picks and trade way up though I warn you it will have to look something like this; both firsts, both seconds, and a first or second from 2019 to pull that ascent off. We could also hold fast with both of our firsts for somebody like Mason Rudolph who fits “the process” to a t. 

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Get a Vet QB in FA and let the chips fall where they may in the draft.

 

If there is a guy Beane likes when the Bills pick then pull the trigger.

 

I don`t think trading up is a good move when this team needs so much and has the picks to get better quickly.

 

Unless they strike gold in FA and fill all the needs then lets go get a top dog.

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Mason Rudolph is a senior, he has been a 3 year starter, he has improved year on year, has been a team captain in 2016 and 2017 and he plays from the pocket in the way Beane has described.  Maybe Beane and Gaines were at the Camping Bowl by coincidence...... but I think the white smoke at this stage suggests that Mason Rudolph is very much in play for the Bills in April.

love it.  great post.  but his arm is weak and he plays in an Air Raid system.    those guys don't make it in the pros.  Keep the picks, go get a veteran like Cousins.  Pay for a guy you know can play.  

Edited by 8-8 Forever?
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4 minutes ago, 8-8 Forever? said:

love it.  great post.   Keep the picks, don't trade up, get Rudolph at 22?

 

You mean 32, right? :)

 

Seriously though I think the Bills ideal will be the draft coming to them on QBs..... but if there is an early run on QBs I think they will be willing to give up the 2nd first rounder to trade up into the teens.  I suspect they don't want to use their extra 2nd or their later picks to do it though.  

Edited by GunnerBill
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Given the topic, this seems to bare repeating (from another thread):

 

Just food for thought, here is Matt Miller's synopsis regarding Rudolph:

 

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State

Senior | 6'4", 235 lbs | No. 41 overall prospect

"The lone senior on this list, Mason Rudolph has incredible numbers operating in Mike Gundy's wide-open Oklahoma State scheme. He carried a Day 3 grade into the season but has shown improved accuracy, decision-making and pocket presence. He also has the most experience of all the quarterbacks listed here. If you follow Bill Parcells' quarterback rules, you'll love Mason Rudolph. Of Parcells' four rules, Rudolph checks the box on all of them. You know who follows Parcells' rules? Tom Coughlin. Rudolph is the type of smart, accurate quarterback the Jaguars need to balance out a great run game and dominant defense."

 

Also consider, as someone mentioned his lack of accuracy, he has completion % of 62.3% as a Sophmore, 63.4% as a Junior, and 65% as a Senior. He's gone up each year by a percentage point while throwing 21, 28, and 35 TDs respectively. Also his INTs have virtually remained unchanged, at 9,4, & 9... while his yards have also gone up, from 3,770 to 4,091, and this year as a Senior 4,553. He's improved over 800 yards in three seasons, kept his INTs the same, while increasing his TDs by 14. I don't know what kind of NFL Rudolph will be, but IMHO, in a WCO that has a lot to do with timing and giving receivers ability to do YAC, he seems like a good prospect. 

 

Edit: He also won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award

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YOU GO AND  GET THE QB. Every year we keep having this convo "If we only had a QB."

 

Look at all the teams that win and win big - THEY ALL HAVE A  TOP FLIGHT QB. ALL OF THEM. 

 

We need a top flight QB to be a superbowl contender. Period.

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4 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

Mason Rudolph in the 2nd round, move up to 33-34 and take him there or potentially trade one of our 1sts for an early 2nd and multiple draft picks. He is projected as a 2nd-3rd round pick, probably won't go in the 1st but it's possible he moves up after the Senior Bowl and Combine.

 

I’ve seen mocks with him going in the top 15. Don’t underestimate the panic that kicks in when the 3 of the top 5 are drafted. 

3 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Darnold & Rosen aren’t ‘McBeane Types’, if last years Draft was any indication. All our picks were 4 year starters, team captains and conference recognition plaudits. The deck is stacked against underclass QB’s delivering Pro Bowl seasons in the  Bigs. I think they’re not going to be on the Bills Board, which is fine as their likely early selections push ‘our guys’ closer to our picks. 

I have no idea who ‘our guys’ are, but we have great Draft capital and some big holes to fill roster-wide. I hope we don’t mess with our Draft bank.

 

This is why I think Mayfield is the guy.  Wasn’t there a report about us heavily scouting him? 

 

And we definitely need to trade up to get him

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