Playoffs? Playoffs?? The Playoff Chances Thread

[26CornerBlitz]

WHERE THINGS SIT FOR BILLS IN AFC WILD CARD RACE

Here's the current state of the AFC Wild Card race for Buffalo with a look ahead at what the final two weeks of the regular season holds for the contenders.

[Kmart128]

50 minutes ago, The Dean said:

 

I doubt if Marrone gives more than a passing thought to the Bills. Just because many here hate him,  I never got the impression he was pissed at the Bills.

 

 

While I think the Bills will get in, if they win out, it is NOT guaranteed. Hasn't that been established enough?

Pretty much. Titans would have to win out and Jaguars would have to lose out. Looking at their schedules I doubt either happen

[Koufax]

So things are really settling in, it is fun to be in the playoff hunt again in the final two weeks, and not needing a miracle for it to happen.  Winning in Miami is obviously the key, and until a stunning upset is actually final, I think we should count a loss to the Patriots as well, so all planning is around 9-7.

 

EITHER

Any loss by the Chargers (@Jets, Oak) or Ravens (Ind, Cin) in those four remaining games almost ensures we win a 9-7 tie breaker. (we need 1 of 4 to go our way)

OR

If all four of those results go against us we would need KC to lose two (Mia, @Den)  or the Titans to beat Rams and lose to Jax. (we would need 4 of 4 to go our way)

 

538 has us around 60% chance of making it at 9-7, with Indy beating Baltimore (very unlikely) the only game that has a huge benefit to us, with all the others helping one scenario but potentially hurting another so limiting their impact.

 

Also, correct me if I am wrong, but there are ZERO scenarios that could eliminate us this weekend before we head to Miami right? And with the Chargers as a late game that final weekend, there is ZERO chance we can be eliminated by scoreboard watching while we are playing to victory over Miami?  But it would take Jets over Chargers or Indy over Ravens THIS weekend for us to have a win and in scenario without scoreboard watching next weekend?

 

And while some people might not BILLieve right now, I'm all in on the kool aid and pixie dust to get Kyle Williams to the playoffs.

[SF Bills Fan]

Oddly, it would have been better to have Titans win yesterday. Then we needed them to lose the last two (which is likely) and we only needed to beat Dolphins. With them winning, we now we need  either a Baltimore or Chargers loss which is probably not happening. The loss to the Chargers and the Jets, as suspected, will be what keeps us out.

[Sweats]

I'll simplify it for all..............win the next 2 games and we are likely in with a 10-6 record.

 

I cant see us pulling it off with a 9-7 record, so the next 2 games especially against the Pats is crucial.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

If we got to 10-6 with a win vs the Patriots and didn't get in that would suck.

[BeginnersMind]

21 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

If we got to 10-6 with a win vs the Patriots and didn't get in that would suck.

 

There’s a scenario where that’s possible but it ain’t happening. 9-7 and not making it is entirely possible. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, Koufax said:

So things are really settling in, it is fun to be in the playoff hunt again in the final two weeks, and not needing a miracle for it to happen.  Winning in Miami is obviously the key, and until a stunning upset is actually final, I think we should count a loss to the Patriots as well, so all planning is around 9-7.

 

EITHER

Any loss by the Chargers (@Jets, Oak) or Ravens (Ind, Cin) in those four remaining games almost ensures we win a 9-7 tie breaker. (we need 1 of 4 to go our way)

OR

If all four of those results go against us we would need KC to lose two (Mia, @Den)  or the Titans to beat Rams and lose to Jax. (we would need 4 of 4 to go our way)

 

538 has us around 60% chance of making it at 9-7, with Indy beating Baltimore (very unlikely) the only game that has a huge benefit to us, with all the others helping one scenario but potentially hurting another so limiting their impact.

 

Also, correct me if I am wrong, but there are ZERO scenarios that could eliminate us this weekend before we head to Miami right? And with the Chargers as a late game that final weekend, there is ZERO chance we can be eliminated by scoreboard watching while we are playing to victory over Miami?  But it would take Jets over Chargers or Indy over Ravens THIS weekend for us to have a win and in scenario without scoreboard watching next weekend?

 

And while some people might not BILLieve right now, I'm all in on the kool aid and pixie dust to get Kyle Williams to the playoffs.

 

Joesixpack concedes nothing!

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Joesixpack concedes nothing!

 

You're god damned right I concede nothing.

 

 

[Jamie Nails]

Please lord, just let some other team experience a mind numbing loss to backups (or a crap team) to benefit the Bills. Just this one time. Pretty please!? 

[MDH]

Bills can actually get in with an 8-8 record IF:

 

In Week 16:

Colts beat Ravens

Chiefs beat Dolphins

Jets beat Chargers

Eagles beat Raiders

 

If that happens Bills get in if in week 17 one of the following happens:

 

Bills beat Dolphins

or 

Bengals beat Ravens

 

Oddly enough if all that stuff happens in week 16 it doesn't even matter if the Bills beat the Pats, they'd need the same thing to happen in week 17 - win, or Ravens lose.

[Fadingpain]

4 hours ago, kdiggz said:

simple as this to get in:

Titans lose to Jax in week 17

Chargers need to lose either 1 of the final 2 (Jets, Raiders)

 

This is assuming we lose to Pats but beat Dolphins of course. This is the most realistic scenario. Anyone that thinks we are beating the Pats at their place keep dreaming.

Is this correct?

 

Anyone else care to weigh in?

 

I mean that is pretty doable!  Jags beat Titans, Chargers lose to either Jets or Raiders, we get killed in NE and find a way to beat the Dolphins again down in Miami.

 

That is not what I'd call impossible.

 

 

 

 

[KDIGGZ]

1 minute ago, Fadingpain said:

Is this correct?

 

Anyone else care to weigh in?

 

I mean that is pretty doable!  Jags beat Titans, Chargers lose to either Jets or Raiders, we get killed in NE and find a way to beat the Dolphins again down in Miami.

 

That is not what I'd call impossible.

 

 

 

 

you won't find anyone looking for realistic possibilities in here.  there are still people on this forum that think we can beat Brady at home with the playoffs on the line.  there are a lot of dreamers on this forum.  i'm more realistic.  this is the only way we are getting in.  know it, accept it, hope and pray for it

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, kdiggz said:

you won't find anyone looking for realistic possibilities in here.  there are still people on this forum that think we can beat Brady at home with the playoffs on the line.  there are a lot of dreamers on this

forum.  i'm more realistic.  this is the only way we are getting in.  know it, accept it, hope and pray for it

 

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 

*throws battery-laced snowballs*

 

[KDIGGZ]

Just now, joesixpack said:

 

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 

*throws battery-laced snowballs*

 

i'm not saying it's impossible.  i'm saying this is our best chance and it seems doable.  let's make it happen!

[PABillsfan23]

IMO they need to win out.  Highly doubt 9-7 gets it done

[Big C]

5 minutes ago, PABillsfan23 said:

IMO they need to win out.  Highly doubt 9-7 gets it done

 

We need help for sure. I am hoping Cincy gives Marvin Lewis one last W week 17 against the Ravens or P-P-P-Petty and the Jets pull one out next week against the Chargers. They have been playing everyone tough and even played the Saints tough with the backup QB in. Wouldn't count out the Raiders in the spoiler role week 17 either. Plenty of avenues as long as we win at least one of the last two. Loving the feeling of being in it all the way to the last week either way.

[FearLess Price]

If the bills handle their business like they should against miami, its a sign the team is going in the right direction finally winning games they should vs lesser or equal teams

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Is this correct?

 

Anyone else care to weigh in?

 

I mean that is pretty doable!  Jags beat Titans, Chargers lose to either Jets or Raiders, we get killed in NE and find a way to beat the Dolphins again down in Miami.

 

That is not what I'd call impossible.

 

 

 

 

ESPN playoff machine 

 

have at it.  All the scenarios you can dream of are there for you to create.  

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Klaista2k]

I feel like we most likely have to win out also.

 

But who knows the maybe the Ravens or Chargers lose a game down the stretch and we get the help we need.

 

Should be a fun last couple of weeks. 

[RiotAct]

13 minutes ago, Klaista2k said:

I feel like we most likely have to win out also.

 

But who knows the maybe the Ravens or Chargers lose a game down the stretch and we get the help we need.

 

Should be a fun last couple of weeks. 

“fun” in a gut-wrenching sort of way.

[Big C]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Chargers have a rash of critical injuries now. I think they will lose at least one of the last 2. Hunter Henry is out for the season, Keenan Allen is hurt and so is Denzel perryman. Not sure, outside of Rivers and maybe one of their pass rushers, you could have more impactful losses. When Perryman was hurt earlier in the year their run D was pitiful, it instantly improved when he came back. As soon as he left the game Saturday, it crumbled. Allen and Henry are Rivers top 2 targets. KA was trending toward AB territory in terms of being uncoverable. 

 

Just as everyone was about to say "hey maybe Keenan Allen can make it through a whole season!"

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[YoloinOhio]

21 minutes ago, Big C said:

 

Just as everyone was about to say "hey maybe Keenan Allen can make it through a whole season!"

I think Alynn said he will be ok now, but he looked pretty hurt. We will see if he plays.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Jamie Nails]

I've agonized over scenarios since the win and have settled on week 16 being more or less house money. Bills are highly likely to lose, but if we get a Colts, Jets, or Titans upset, we're looking good going into week 17. If nothing breaks our way, we still have hopes that the Bengals or Raiders can win to get us in. That's five games and we basically need one outcome to go our way in addition to a Bills win over the fins. 

[John Gianelli]

With all these complicated scenarios, has anyone mentioned this as a tie-breaker option? If a head-to-head comparison still results in a tie, the team who won the most recent game between them wins. If there were no head-to-head games, the team with the longest winning streak at the end of the season wins.

 

That would reward teams that finish strong, akin to how the college football playoff teams get in.

[plenzmd1]

I think our best shot at help this week rests with the Jets. 10AM game for the Chargers, little gloomy, rainy, Christmas Eve..Jets +250 moneyline. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

I think our best shot at help this week rests with the Jets. 10AM game for the Chargers, little gloomy, rainy, Christmas Eve..Jets +250 moneyline. 

who is playing QB for the JETS?  

 

Now is not the time for the tanking team to tank.  

[YoloinOhio]

10 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

who is playing QB for the JETS?  

 

Now is not the time for the tanking team to tank.  

Bryce Petty

[Rubes]

 ...if we lose to the Pats*** this week, is there a scenario where we go into Week 17 knowing that if we beat the Fins we are in for sure (without any other help in Week 17)?

 

Too many scenarios to keep track of this...

 

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

I think our best shot at help this week rests with the Jets. 10AM game for the Chargers, little gloomy, rainy, Christmas Eve..Jets +250 moneyline. 

West coast to East coast travel does produce a lower winning pctg for the traveling team. I'd still expect a Chargers win here. I hope the Jets pull it off. 

[plenzmd1]

I think so..if the Ravens or  Chargers lose..

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

10 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 ...if we lose to the Pats*** this week, is there a scenario where we go into Week 17 knowing that if we beat the Fins we are in for sure (without any other help in Week 17)?

 

Too many scenarios to keep track of this...

 

According to the NYT Playoff machine, yes.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#bal-ind-16=loss&kc-mia-16=win&ne-buf-16=win&nyj-lac-16=win&ten-lar-16=loss&mia-buf-17=loss

 

If all of these happen in week 16 and we win in week 17, we're at 100% getting in:

Colts, Chiefs, Jets, and Rams all win.

 

Pretty confident in Chiefs and Rams.

GO COLTS!  GO JETS!

Edited December 19, 2017 by JÂy RÛßeÒ

[plenzmd1]

52 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Bryce Petty

I did not see too much of the game last week outside of what they were showing on Redzone, but Jets hung tough in New Orleans with Petty.

4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

West coast to East coast travel does produce a lower winning pctg for the traveling team. I'd still expect a Chargers win here. I hope the Jets pull it off. 

Rams traveling East as well..and a Titans win might be a good thing for us. But i think Jets beating Chargers a bit more realistic.

[Jasovon]

We cannot be eliminated this week.

[PaattMaann]

1 minute ago, Jasovon said:

We cannot be eliminated this week.

 

cool but that was not the OPs question

[Jasovon]

Just now, PaattMaann said:

 

cool but that was not the OPs question

Ah i misread it, to answer the question no there is no way we can be 9-7 in week 17 and definitely make it in because of those pesky ravens.