Live 2024 NFL Draft thread - Round 1 (Do NOT tip the Bills pick)

[Warriorspikes51]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'll certainly give Beane the benefit of the doubt and will wait to see how the rest of the draft turns out, but...

Helping the team we can never get past in the playoffs get a 4.21 WR, trading out of the first round completely and losing the fifth year option, and collecting a pile of late picks in a shallow draft has me going to bed pretty discouraged tonight.

I felt the Bills needed to try to find a difference maker or two in this draft, and instead they seem content to just keep trading back and adding a big pile of okay-to-maybe-good players instead. It's hard to see who at pick 60 or 95 is going to help get us over the hump.

Not only that, but they handed to their arch rivals a guy who -- by virtue of his rare speed -- MAY actually be a difference maker.

I'm typically a huge optimist, and if you go back through my history of draft night posts over the years, you'll see me constantly espousing a glass-half-full outlook and talking up the BIlls' pick(s). But tonight? I don't feel good about the way things went down. 

First time in a while that I've ended night one of the draft feeling this discouraged. 

I get this feeling for sure…

 

I expect we auction off #33 or trade for a #1 WR 

[DCOrange]

15 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

I didn’t realize how a lot of Worthy’s advanced stats were complete asscheeks. Still hate to loose sheer raw talent like that though

Just be forewarned, don't look at AD Mitchell's if he ends up being our pick tomorrow lol.

[Ralonzo]

17 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

Draft AD Mitchell and Franklin in round 2 and I’ll go streaking through my neighborhood 

 

It won't go well for you unless you run the 40-yard in 4.21

[Bruffalo]

KC doesn’t even have a good track record drafting WRs and everyone is losing their minds because we let them take a twig of a human that can move fast. 
 

I don’t get it. 

 

Edited April 26 by Bruffalo

[BananaB]

5 minutes ago, McBean said:

Just awful. No words to all of this but sheer insanity.

 

KC calls you hang up. Don’t even listen. Just gave mahomes and Reid a 4.2 guy. Hahahahahaha 

They have had Hardman, Ross, Tony, Moore and Rice. Not all Superstars eh. They lucked in with Tyreek because they like them low character players that beat up fetuses. 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Sandhill Mike said:

Thanks for the commentary guys, after catching up and reading everything (board melted down as soon as the KC trade was announced and again after the 32/33 trade) I am off the ledge.  I absolutely HATE trading with the Chefs for ANY reason, assuming we'll get fleeced again.  I'm just a fan, not an analyst or draft value junkie, so emotion is all I've got.  Just stayed up all night for a trade with our nemesis where they get the fastest man alive and no new players to get excited about.  

 

I do trust Beane to fill out the roster and I think Allen is at that point in his career where he can work with the receivers he's got.  But I'll tell you what... about an hour ago, I could relate to this guy:

 

 

Seriously, Shakir and Samuel, who is a plus gadget guy? That's the best currently in our WR room. Beane has to add. It's terrible right now, and an absolute disservice to Josh Allen. I still like Mitchell and McConkey. I'm not high on Coleman and Franklin, though some are. Might be a draft choice and a veteran that is available.

[MasterStrategist]

2 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Beane STILL hasn’t spoken to the media. Must be fielding offers for #33 and be looking into trading for a WR

I mean is he supposed to, what do you expect him to say?

 

Obviously he got what he considered fair/good value in the the trade backs and looks forward to having 3 picks tomorrow.

 

You are very hyper with trades and reading into things when nothing is there

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, Dr.Mantis_Toboggan said:

This is literally the exact opposite of everything I’ve heard leading up to this draft, but ok…

There is an issue with mid-level players staying in school because NIL money is more than 5th round pick money so the bottom half of this draft is indeed week. It will correct itself in a year or so but the lower-round guys will be older than we are used to.

[par73]

2 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Beane STILL hasn’t spoken to the media. Must be fielding offers for #33 and be looking into trading for a WR

He's probably trying to figure out how many 4th, 5th and 6th rounders he can get for each 2nd.

[That's No Moon]

Just now, Low Positive said:

There is an issue with mid-level players staying in school because NIL money is more than 5th round pick money so the bottom half of this draft is indeed week. It will correct itself in a year or so but the lower-round guys will be older than we are used to.

Plus we are still working through the COVID bonus year stuff.

[PrimeTime101]

I promise not to tip the Bills pick in round 1....

 

[Beck Water]

24 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Worthy is the same size as Devonta Smith. I don’t want that guy, and that skill set, in Andy Reid’s offense. If you aren’t concerned about that, we see things differently. 

 

They aren't dissimilar in size, but as far as I can figure they seem to be scouted as rather different players

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/devonta-smith/3200534d-4920-6016-573c-fcc767bafc4d

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/xavier-worthy/3200574f-5274-1496-c9ca-5c4709faa05b

 

Brett Veach is a great GM, no doubt, and KC is the team to beat until proven otherwise.  So I understand the indignation towards helping KC get anything they want.

 

He also doesn't have a perfect draft record - Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore before looking like he hit with a WR on his third shot in Rashee Rice (and then....)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the 1st who got outplayed by 7th rounder Pacheco.

Time will tell.    
 

 

 

[PastaJoe]

Ridiculous that all the press are still waiting at the stadium and the Bills won’t say if or when Beane will speak tonight.

[That's No Moon]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Seriously, Shakir and Samuel, who is a plus gadget guy? That's the best currently in our WR room. Beane has to add. It's terrible right now, and an absolute disservice to Josh Allen. I still like Mitchell and McConkey. I'm not high on Coleman and Franklin, though some are. Might be a draft choice and a veteran that is available.

How is McConkey's back? It was an issue all last season.

[Low Positive]

Just now, MasterStrategist said:

I mean is he supposed to, what do you expect him to say?

 

Obviously he got what he considered fair/good value in the the trade backs and looks forward to having 3 picks tomorrow.

 

You are very hyper with trades and reading into things when nothing is there

Now that I have had time to step off of the ledge, I think that he tried to trade up into the top ten for Odunze, When that failed, he wanted Thomas. When he was taken, he had no one left with a first round grade. Better to not reach and get some additional ammo. I don't expect that they will take that late third. I think that they will use that and 60 to trade up in the second. Who they pick at what position I have no idea.

[par73]

Beane speaking now. Didn't try to move up. Happy he's got a 3 now.

[That's No Moon]

Just now, PastaJoe said:

Ridiculous that all the press are still waiting at the stadium and the Bills won’t say if or when Beane will speak tonight.

That's pretty crap, but the man does have a job to do and I'd imagine they are still pretty busy right now.

[Bermuda Triangle]

1 minute ago, PastaJoe said:

Ridiculous that all the press are still waiting at the stadium and the Bills won’t say if or when Beane will speak tonight.

That’s really weak on the part of the organization 

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, Dr.Mantis_Toboggan said:

This is literally the exact opposite of everything I’ve heard leading up to this draft, but ok…

 

besides, even if you are correct, he can package all those 5ths and move back into the 4th or 3rd. It gives him a lot of flexibility to get who they want tomorrow.

 

Numerous analysts, and our own resident TBD experts, have this draft at barely 150 "draftable" guys. Where years prior there were 200+.

 

The COVID eligibility adjustment has played out, and more guys are staying in school for NIL money.

 

To the bold, easier said than done when the other teams know the talent falls off a cliff after the 4th round.

 

I'm just not real happy with this strategy right now. We'll see.

[Nitro]

37 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

It's not a deep draft at all. That's why they are prioritizing moving their later round picks forward. We aren't selecting additional players this year, we are just getting to pick them sooner. If it were a deep draft they'd be adding selections. Rounds 6 and 7 are basically throw aways this year. There just aren't that many guys with draftable grades this year.

 

I wouldnt be shocked if they move down again tomorrow. I'm disappointed that they haven't been able to add an additional 3rd and have only been able to do swaps so far. Maybe tomorrow is different but I'd guess it would be another pick swap. Maybe one of the 5s to a 4 now.

They have 2 second round, a third and fourth, 4 fifth rounders and a sixth and seventh.    Other NFL types said it is a deep draft.  I trust them thank you.

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

How is McConkey's back? It was an issue all last season.

Well, supposedly he is good now. You'd have to be convinced he can be durable in the NFL, but I think he is healthy. I live near Athens, and love the guy. I really think he can be a volume receiver year one.

Edited April 26 by Dr. Who

[K-9]

Who was the draft pundit who said we would trade back with Carolina and then take McConkey at 33? 

 

If Beane was speaking truth when he said he didn’t have first round grades on 28 players and all the players he did have first round grades on were gone, then he’s gonna find some value on days two and three. I have a hunch he’s gonna acquire a third pick in the 2nd round as well. 
 

While Worthy has boom or bust written all over him and I’m glad we didn’t take him, it just sucks to make that deal with KC. 

[That's No Moon]

1 minute ago, Low Positive said:

Now that I have had time to step off of the ledge, I think that he tried to trade up into the top ten for Odunze, When that failed, he wanted Thomas. When he was taken, he had no one left with a first round grade. Better to not reach and get some additional ammo. I don't expect that they will take that late third. I think that they will use that and 60 to trade up in the second. Who they pick at what position I have no idea.

They might try to package up some 5s or move that 4 up, but they will keep the 3. 

 

I also think they flip any 6s or 7s they have left by that point into futures next year.

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, par73 said:

Beane speaking now. Didn't try to move up. Happy he's got a 3 now.

 

BARF

[Sandhill Mike]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

Seriously, Shakir and Samuel, who is a plus gadget guy? That's the best currently in our WR room. Beane has to add. It's terrible right now, and an absolute disservice to Josh Allen. I still like Mitchell and McConkey. I'm not high on Coleman and Franklin, though some are. Might be a draft choice and a veteran that is available.

 

Tom Brady used to get the #1 seed with whatever they scraped together to play wide receiver.  I like Cook out of the backfield, I love Kincaid, and think a lot of Shakir.  After reading all the replies, sounds like there are still a couple of good wideouts to pick... but we still wouldn't have a true #1. 

 

I'm not sure what to expect from Samuel, but maybe this coming year, we dink and dunk people to death.  It's not Josh's forte, but if he learns how to do it with patience, our offense could be dangerous.

 

If we get a vet, I'm just not sure who it could be with the cap situation.  Curious to see what Beane comes up with tomorrow.  He feels the pressure more than I do, and we've done better at drafting of late than the twenty years that preceded.  After my blood pressure reaching a simmer, the more level heads here have made me see the advantages to what went down tonight.

 

Doesn't change the fact that we all stayed up too late!  Hoping we have great picks to celebrate tomorrow (guess that's tonight, now).  Catch you guys for Round 2.

[par73]

He's getting calls for 33 already. He said, "we'll see."

[That's No Moon]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

Well, supposedly he is good now. I suppose you'd have to be convinced he can be durable in the NFL, but I think he is healthy. I live near Athens, and love the guy. I really think he can be a volume receiver year one.

I don't dislike the player. I have a Kevin Bacon style connection to him and it would be nice to have him. Backs are scary though.

[BigDingus]

6 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

KC doesn’t even have a good track record drafting WRs and everyone is losing their minds because we let them take a twig of a human that can move fast. 
 

I don’t get it. 

 

 

They got Tyreek Hill... and Rice will probably end up pretty good. What's Beane's track record?

 

Gabe Davis and maybe Shakir takes another step? Not like we're savants in that area.

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, PastaJoe said:

Ridiculous that all the press are still waiting at the stadium and the Bills won’t say if or when Beane will speak tonight.

 

What stadium are they waiting at?

[Engelwood]

33 minutes ago, Jerboski said:

We didn’t get fair market value for moving up 4 spots in the first 

 

not to mention, it’s your rival so that should add even more to the price. I have no issue with a trade down, getting the return we got from the team we traded with is not nearly good enough… kc cannot believe we made that deal 

Looking at the draft value chart we did better than even

Bills Picks 
28 - Value 660
133 - Value 39.5
248 - Value 1
Total 700.5

KC Picks
32 - Value 590
95 - Value 120
221 - Value 3

Total 713

Hmm I guess the math proves you wrong. We got better than fair market value. We moved up 38 spots from the end of the 4th to the 3rd. 

[Richard Noggin]

Just now, Ralonzo said:

 

I started off doing mocks with the idea of trading up for that great WR to fill the major hole, but after enough iterations, came around to the strategy of for this team, at this time, I should be looking for trade downs to get 4 to 5 guys who can augment the roster this year. Day 1 through early day 3 is pretty much the zone for that stuff in this draft. The Bills are pushing their later picks into that zone. I understand what they're doing because they're going to the "value-meets-need" zone for their roster.

 

After a million mock drafts where I stayed at 28 and either politely chose the preferred remaining (5th or 6th) WR (usually Mitchell or Coleman back then) or chose an unexpectedly available 1st round prospect at OL or DL just because loud BPA value (usually one of the top OCs, DTs, or DEs)...I started to trade back out of 28, oftentimes more than once. If Franklin is a perfectly acceptable WR target, then he can be picked at the top of the 2nd while also gaining a late day-three, top-100 pick the NFL recently stole. Rosters are built on day two and early day three.

 

The 2024 1st rd draft trade scorecard is as follows:

Bills give 28, 133, 200, 248 (232 pts)

Bills get 33, 95, 141, 221 (237 pts)

[Kwai San]

16 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Shakir averaged 36 yards per game last year, so I wouldn't point to him as this major coup of a pick.

 

Buffalo's best draft pick used on a WR in 6 drafts is a 4th on Davis.  And he was so good they let him walk in UFA. 

 

McBeane have found most of their production from UFA or trades at the position in a league which prioritizes them in the draft.  

 

Shakir was hardly used early on so the stats are skewed.  Davis? 

 

Lets talk at the end of the year.  If Allen couldn't get he best out of him you think Horsey Face is?  I'm thinking a big no on that one.  J-Ville is reaching and paying.....the Bills used to be that team too.......

 

Oh and players like Tre, Milano, Dawkins, Allen, Oliver, Knox, Espensa, Kincaid, Cook, T. Johnson, Benard,  etc are asking you WTAF?

[That's No Moon]

2 minutes ago, Nitro said:

They have 2 second round, a third and fourth, 4 fifth rounders and a sixth and seventh.    Other NFL types said it is a deep draft.  I trust them thank you.

I know what they have. They have 3 more choices than the minimum and they didn't acquire any of the extras today. It's a deep draft in certain positions. WR being one of them. Overall it's not.

 

I doubt they use all of those 5ths on players, I'd expect them to be packaged up to move up and I doubt they keep the 6th or especially 7th. They will try to flip them for picks next year or include them in other trades as in a 5th to get up into the 4th. Something like that.

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, Sandhill Mike said:

 

Tom Brady used to get the #1 seed with whatever they scraped together to play wide receiver.  I like Cook out of the backfield, I love Kincaid, and think a lot of Shakir.  After reading all the replies, sounds like there are still a couple of good wideouts to pick... but we still wouldn't have a true #1. 

 

I'm not sure what to expect from Samuel, but maybe this coming year, we dink and dunk people to death.  It's not Josh's forte, but if he learns how to do it with patience, our offense could be dangerous.

 

If we get a vet, I'm just not sure who it could be with the cap situation.  Curious to see what Beane comes up with tomorrow.  He feels the pressure more than I do, and we've done better at drafting of late than the twenty years that preceded.  After my blood pressure reaching a simmer, the more level heads here have made me see the advantages to what went down tonight.

 

Doesn't change the fact that we all stayed up too late!  Hoping we have great picks to celebrate tomorrow (guess that's tonight, now).  Catch you guys for Round 2.

Folks are talking about Aiyuk and Jefferson. That would cost a lot. I'd at least try and see if Hopkins is available. You sure as hell do not want to turn Josh Allen into a dink and dunk QB. That would be a monstrous waste of talent, and it's not who he is. We need some big play ability. We still lack a boundary receiver to stretch the field. Beane should add 2 WRs tomorrow, one way or another. 

 

Yes, tomorrow should be interesting. 

Edited April 26 by Dr. Who

[par73]

He sees good value tomorrow. Also likes having ammo to possibly move around some more.

[That's No Moon]

3 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

 

Shakir was hardly used early on so the stats are skewed.  Davis? 

 

Lets talk at the end of the year.  If Allen couldn't get he best out of him you think Horsey Face is?  I'm thinking a big no on that one.  J-Ville is reaching and paying.....the Bills used to be that team too.......

 

Oh and players like Tre, Milano, Dawkins, Allen, Oliver, Knox, Espensa, Kincaid, Cook, T. Johnson, Benard,  etc are asking you WTAF?

Dude did say best pick used on a WR.

[MarkKelso'sHelmet]

Any reason not to take Adonai Mitchell? He's 6'4.

[4th&long]

***** him. He doesn’t have a clue. Andy Reid stole his lunch money again!

[That's No Moon]

4 minutes ago, MarkKelso'sHelmet said:

Any reason not to take Adonai Mitchell? He's 6'4.

[ndirish1978]

2 minutes ago, 4th&long said:

***** him. He doesn’t have a clue. Andy Reid stole his lunch money again!

Genius, Beane wasn't the GM when we made the trade with KC that resulted in Mahomes.