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Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one


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57 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

You've been banging that "WR don't really matter, teams don't need a top 5 WR, receivers are a dime a dozen" drum in several threads now.

 

Counterpoint:  I don't know about "top 5 WR" that seems arbitrary.  But here's some evidence about how the teams you cite think about that "they'll have a guy who's top 5 in the stats but he'll get there by being a scheme fit rather than a great receiver" philosophy.  TL;DR they're voting with their $$ on that.

 

1) Detroit just signed their  #1, 119 reception, 1515 yd wide receiver Amon Ra St Brown to a 4 year, $120M contract with $77M guaranteed.   Why would they do that, if receivers are becoming a dime a dozen and successful teams don't need a top WR, just a "scheme fit"?

2) I don't think Deebo Samuel was signed to a 3 year , $71,550,000 contract with the San Francisco 49ers, including $24,035,000 signing bonus, $58,100,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $23,850,000 because the '49ers thought he was "just a scheme fit" where WR are a "dime a dozen"

And Christian McCaffrey's a unicorn - part receiver, part running back, and 100% perfect for the Niners, but that team didn't trade away the core of their 2023 draft board (2nd, 3rd, 4th plus 2024 5th), but either way, SF didn't give up that much with the right to pay him $14M this season on top of it because they thought Christian McCaffery was a "dime a dozen" as either a receiver or an RB

3) LA Rams signed Kupp to a 3 year, $80M extension in 2022 of which $75M were guaranteed because they view WR as a "dime a dozen" after his 145 reception, 1947 yd season.  They appear to have lucked out with Puka Nacua, but I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that league-wide talent evaluators weren't saying "see, any old WR could succeed in that system" (if that were true, what stopped 2nd round pick Van Jefferson? What stopped 2nd round pick Tutu Atwell?  

 

It's a nice hypothesis but it doesn't seem to stack up against how the teams you mentioned are actually spending their $$.

 

You missed the point.   It's not that some guys aren't valuable.  Those guys you name are extraordinarily valuable.   And they put up nice stats.  They just don't fit the stud receiver mold.   They aren't tall, they aren't big, and they aren't fast.   They have other skills that make that, combined with decent size and speed, makes them valuable.  

 

I've been talking to people here about the fact that the typical stud receiver - the big, tall, fast guys - aren't the kind of guys that teams are looking for now.  Blazing speed is nice, but not necessary.   Size is nice, but not necessary.   There are a lot of guys with measurables like Samuel and St. Brown and Kupp, they're all over the place.  What teams are looking for is guys with with decent size and speed and who are good scheme fits. 

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9 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

The Patriots are drafting Bo Callahan 

 

Again??? 

 

I guess they like a “type”. 

 

.

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1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

TL;DR they're voting with their $$ on that.

This is the evidence I keep coming back to. Some people here are banging the “you don’t need an elite WR” drum pretty hard, but NFL teams are paying them large and that tells the opposite story. 

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16 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

BREAKING RUMOR:  I may watch the movie Draft Day again within 24 hours 

That movie is dumb as F. All that unrealistic BS that everyone who seriously follows the draft knows is ridiculous. And the cherry on top is the GM does it all for a RB and an off the ball LB. SMDH. 

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1 minute ago, Mynamemike said:

None of his teammates went to his birthday party! 

 

….as far as he can recall. He’s not proud of it, on multiple levels.  😋

 

But it got him off the hook. 

 

Being in a draft room is probably my greatest sports bucket list item. That would be fascinating to see the real deal. 

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14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You missed the point.   It's not that some guys aren't valuable.  Those guys you name are extraordinarily valuable.   And they put up nice stats.  They just don't fit the stud receiver mold.   They aren't tall, they aren't big, and they aren't fast.   They have other skills that make that, combined with decent size and speed, makes them valuable.  

 

I've been talking to people here about the fact that the typical stud receiver - the big, tall, fast guys - aren't the kind of guys that teams are looking for now.  Blazing speed is nice, but not necessary.   Size is nice, but not necessary.   There are a lot of guys with measurables like Samuel and St. Brown and Kupp, they're all over the place.  What teams are looking for is guys with with decent size and speed and who are good scheme fits. 

I feel they want an interchangeable WR.  Damn good speed, but more importantly able to separate and catch consistently. When you do that you can't key on a play like defenses have in the past based on personnel.   

 

We would be a team that could have Shakir, Samuel or Rookie, in any of the possessions at any given time.

3 minutes ago, Mynamemike said:

None of his teammates went to his birthday party! 

Damn them!

7 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

That movie is dumb as F. All that unrealistic BS that everyone who seriously follows the draft knows is ridiculous. And the cherry on top is the GM does it all for a RB and an off the ball LB. SMDH. 

I bet you are a blast at family reunions and birthday parties.

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5 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I bet you are a blast at family reunions and birthday parties

I don’t suffer fools gladly. And if I’m being honest, that’s been a bit of a hindrance in my life. But still……a RB because his dad played for the team and an off the ball LB. Both top 5. 

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5 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I feel they want an interchangeable WR.  Damn good speed, but more importantly able to separate and catch consistently. When you do that you can't key on a play like defenses have in the past based on personnel.   

 

We would be a team that could have Shakir, Samuel or Rookie, in any of the possessions at any given time.

 

I think you meant positions, not possessions.   

 

Yes, you and I have been saying this for a while.  I think the handwriting was on the wall when they got Samuel.  And add Kincaid in there.  And Cook.   They want to put a bunch of guys out there that are interchangeable.   

 

I wrote something a few days ago about the fact that McCaffrey is so much more valuable than Saquon.  When McCaffrey was in college I just didn't get how good he was.  I thought he was a great college player who would stumble in the pros.  Well, no.  He's great, and he's great because he's good enough to be a good starting running back and (almost) a starting receiver.  That's a weapon.  Singletary was that kind of back, just not as good. 

 

I very much think that body type doesn't determine a valuable receiver.   I don't like Metcalf, even though he has one of the all-time great bodies - size and speed.  Heart, quickness, change of direction, brains.  That's what wins now.   

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1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Man people are gonna be mad when we draft Chop Robinson. 
 

“When Manny Diaz speaks, I listen” McDermott at the press conference. 

If we stay put at 28, draft Chop, then trade up in the 2nd for Franklin/another WR high on their board them I'm fine with it.

 

Chop has an excellent get off, and DE/pass rusher is a need.  Just not as much as WR.

 

Good chance Chop is gone by 28, and I will be mad if they trade up more than a few spots to draft him.

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32 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Drinking bourbon and taking naps on his porch somewhere in rural Alabama?

Between all this draft talk and current spring weather in WNY, that actually sounds amazing. 

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24 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

23-28:  Xavier Worthy

33-39: Xavier Legette


 

Worthy has been my "hope" since the Fall.

 

He's gonna be an excellent player for whoever drafts him.

 

Not sure Beane trades up to double dip, but I'm certainly more than fine if that's our combo.

 

Perfect complementary types and could give us a very young/affordable group of playmakers for multiple years.  

 

Definitely think we need 2 WRs.  Javon Baker or Tez Walker are potential fall back options at 60, or moving back from 60 to acquire more picks on Day 2/very early day 3.

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16 minutes ago, Evansfan322 said:

I would love a move back and get Legette and Pearsall 

Carolina is rumored to be taking Legette at 33 if he’s available. So can’t move back too far if you want him

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I think we have too many holes to spend a bunch of capital trading up for something that isn’t even a sure thing anyway.

 

Spend the capital on a sure thing (vet WR trade), or stay pat and plug holes.

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7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you meant positions, not possessions.   

 

Yes, you and I have been saying this for a while.  I think the handwriting was on the wall when they got Samuel.  And add Kincaid in there.  And Cook.   They want to put a bunch of guys out there that are interchangeable.   

 

I wrote something a few days ago about the fact that McCaffrey is so much more valuable than Saquon.  When McCaffrey was in college I just didn't get how good he was.  I thought he was a great college player who would stumble in the pros.  Well, no.  He's great, and he's great because he's good enough to be a good starting running back and (almost) a starting receiver.  That's a weapon.  Singletary was that kind of back, just not as good. 

 

I very much think that body type doesn't determine a valuable receiver.   I don't like Metcalf, even though he has one of the all-time great bodies - size and speed.  Heart, quickness, change of direction, brains.  That's what wins now.   

Yep that's what I meant.  Pain meds and auto correct do not mix 😁. This is why I think we stand pat at 28, or trade down, and take Franklin either scenario. 

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Just now, SoonerBillsFan said:

Yep that's what I meant.  Pain meds and auto correct do not mix 😁. This is why I think we stand pat at 28, or trade down, and take Franklin either scenario. 

And I've been reading posts that Thurman did earlier in this thread, talking about the fact that teams don't do well trading up into the top of the first round.   I've often thought that you do it for a QB, but no other position is worth it.  One receiver is very rarely as valuable as the three guys you would have drafted if you kept the picks.   I mean, if I knew it was Jerry Rice, okay, but Jerry Rice isn't available.   In fact, in the modern NFL, Jerry Rice probably isn't as valuable as the real Jerry Rice was. 

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one thing is for sure, tomorrow at this time there are going to be some aggressive teams doing really aggressively aggressive stuff.

 

And when they are done backwards hat guy on youtube is going to hate everything they did.  

 

and no matter what somehow everything will work out for the chiefs and they will be even better by the end of the weekend.

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4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

AI mean, if I knew it was Jerry Rice, okay, but Jerry Rice isn't available.   In fact, in the modern NFL, Jerry Rice probably isn't as valuable as the real Jerry Rice was. 

His son is available.  I might take a flyer on him on Day 3.  

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I rarely post, but feel I owe the community an outlandish projection. And I have earned the right.

- KNEW that Allen was the Josh before the pick when 90% of this board had Rosen.

- Picked Oliver as the target.

- Sorta knew Kinnkaid was the man.

- Strongly believed Diggs would be traded even though everyone claimed the cap was a no-go.

- IDK, I may be in Beane's head ... that's why I need to type this. With that out of the way:

 

Setting the stage:

- Most teams now regard Malik Nabers as the #1 WR

- MHJ dropped a bit due to non-combine participation.

- Rome is showing up on more mocks out of the top 10.

- AZ is going to cash in on a trade-down.

- And if AZ doesn't, the Chargers will.

- LAC could go WR, but almost everyone expects Joe Alt.

- The Giants likely shut out of QB convo, will go WR

- TN is all about an OT. Maybe like LAC.

- Bills signed L Collins.

- Diggs was not the only player feeling their oats on Twitter. D Dawkins was there too with his predictions. And post-season, with the googly eyes hoping he would get his extension. 3x20m.

- LAC wants to move down, and TN needs OT too.

 

The Terms:

- If the Bills believe they have a replacement on the roster for Dawkins, he will be used as trade bait for LAC/TN.

- Bills could then make that trade without exhausting this and next year's draft capital.

- 28, 60, 2025 2nd for 1.5/7 + 4th.

 

Projection:

- 1-4 QB

- LAC - Joe Alt

- NYG select - Nabers, a diva in waiting. He will make Diggs and his passive-aggressive antics look like a straight-shooting choirboy.

- Bills via TN - MHJ.

 

I may be overestimating Dawkins' return. And of course, misreading the tea leaves. But that is my Mighty Kreskin moment for the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, alg said:

I rarely post, but feel I owe the community an outlandish projection. And I have earned the right.

- KNEW that Allen was the Josh before the pick when 90% of this board had Rosen.

- Picked Oliver as the target.

- Sorta knew Kinnkaid was the man.

- Strongly believed Diggs would be traded even though everyone claimed the cap was a no-go.

- IDK, I may be in Beane's head ... that's why I need to type this. With that out of the way:

 

Setting the stage:

- Most teams now regard Malik Nabers as the #1 WR

- MHJ dropped a bit due to non-combine participation.

- Rome is showing up on more mocks out of the top 10.

- AZ is going to cash in on a trade-down.

- And if AZ doesn't, the Chargers will.

- LAC could go WR, but almost everyone expects Joe Alt.

- The Giants likely shut out of QB convo, will go WR

- TN is all about an OT. Maybe like LAC.

- Bills signed L Collins.

- Diggs was not the only player feeling their oats on Twitter. D Dawkins was there too with his predictions. And post-season, with the googly eyes hoping he would get his extension. 3x20m.

- LAC wants to move down, and TN needs OT too.

 

The Terms:

- If the Bills believe they have a replacement on the roster for Dawkins, he will be used as trade bait for LAC/TN.

- Bills could then make that trade without exhausting this and next year's draft capital.

- 28, 60, 2025 2nd for 1.5/7 + 4th.

 

Projection:

- 1-4 QB

- LAC - Joe Alt

- NYG select - Nabers, a diva in waiting. He will make Diggs and his passive-aggressive antics look like a straight-shooting choirboy.

- Bills via TN - MHJ.

 

I may be overestimating Dawkins' return. And of course, misreading the tea leaves. But that is my Mighty Kreskin moment for the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

 


You’re on the money about Nabers. He’s trouble. 
 

MHJ is the HOF superstar in this class. Pair him with Allen and he reach his dad’s level. 
 

The Dawkins scenario would be a surprise to me. He strikes me as a great locker room culture guy although the DJ Vlad shirtless stuff turned me off a bit. No clue who the replacement would be at LT. IDK if Collin’s is good enough. 

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5 minutes ago, alg said:

I rarely post, but feel I owe the community an outlandish projection. And I have earned the right.

- KNEW that Allen was the Josh before the pick when 90% of this board had Rosen.

- Picked Oliver as the target.

- Sorta knew Kinnkaid was the man.

- Strongly believed Diggs would be traded even though everyone claimed the cap was a no-go.

- IDK, I may be in Beane's head ... that's why I need to type this. With that out of the way:

 

Setting the stage:

- Most teams now regard Malik Nabers as the #1 WR

- MHJ dropped a bit due to non-combine participation.

- Rome is showing up on more mocks out of the top 10.

- AZ is going to cash in on a trade-down.

- And if AZ doesn't, the Chargers will.

- LAC could go WR, but almost everyone expects Joe Alt.

- The Giants likely shut out of QB convo, will go WR

- TN is all about an OT. Maybe like LAC.

- Bills signed L Collins.

- Diggs was not the only player feeling their oats on Twitter. D Dawkins was there too with his predictions. And post-season, with the googly eyes hoping he would get his extension. 3x20m.

- LAC wants to move down, and TN needs OT too.

 

The Terms:

- If the Bills believe they have a replacement on the roster for Dawkins, he will be used as trade bait for LAC/TN.

- Bills could then make that trade without exhausting this and next year's draft capital.

- 28, 60, 2025 2nd for 1.5/7 + 4th.

 

Projection:

- 1-4 QB

- LAC - Joe Alt

- NYG select - Nabers, a diva in waiting. He will make Diggs and his passive-aggressive antics look like a straight-shooting choirboy.

- Bills via TN - MHJ.

 

I may be overestimating Dawkins' return. And of course, misreading the tea leaves. But that is my Mighty Kreskin moment for the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

 

Just remember what the cigarette smoking man said😉

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6 minutes ago, alg said:

I rarely post, but feel I owe the community an outlandish projection. And I have earned the right.

- KNEW that Allen was the Josh before the pick when 90% of this board had Rosen.

- Picked Oliver as the target.

- Sorta knew Kinnkaid was the man.

- Strongly believed Diggs would be traded even though everyone claimed the cap was a no-go.

- IDK, I may be in Beane's head ... that's why I need to type this. With that out of the way:

 

Setting the stage:

- Most teams now regard Malik Nabers as the #1 WR

- MHJ dropped a bit due to non-combine participation.

- Rome is showing up on more mocks out of the top 10.

- AZ is going to cash in on a trade-down.

- And if AZ doesn't, the Chargers will.

- LAC could go WR, but almost everyone expects Joe Alt.

- The Giants likely shut out of QB convo, will go WR

- TN is all about an OT. Maybe like LAC.

- Bills signed L Collins.

- Diggs was not the only player feeling their oats on Twitter. D Dawkins was there too with his predictions. And post-season, with the googly eyes hoping he would get his extension. 3x20m.

- LAC wants to move down, and TN needs OT too.

 

The Terms:

- If the Bills believe they have a replacement on the roster for Dawkins, he will be used as trade bait for LAC/TN.

- Bills could then make that trade without exhausting this and next year's draft capital.

- 28, 60, 2025 2nd for 1.5/7 + 4th.

 

Projection:

- 1-4 QB

- LAC - Joe Alt

- NYG select - Nabers, a diva in waiting. He will make Diggs and his passive-aggressive antics look like a straight-shooting choirboy.

- Bills via TN - MHJ.

 

I may be overestimating Dawkins' return. And of course, misreading the tea leaves. But that is my Mighty Kreskin moment for the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

 


So what are you saying the offer is exactly because it looks like you’re saying Dawkins plus a bounty of picks still.

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2 minutes ago, alg said:

I rarely post, but feel I owe the community an outlandish projection. And I have earned the right.

- KNEW that Allen was the Josh before the pick when 90% of this board had Rosen.

- Picked Oliver as the target.

- Sorta knew Kinnkaid was the man.

- Strongly believed Diggs would be traded even though everyone claimed the cap was a no-go.

- IDK, I may be in Beane's head ... that's why I need to type this. With that out of the way:

 

Setting the stage:

- Most teams now regard Malik Nabers as the #1 WR

- MHJ dropped a bit due to non-combine participation.

- Rome is showing up on more mocks out of the top 10.

- AZ is going to cash in on a trade-down.

- And if AZ doesn't, the Chargers will.

- LAC could go WR, but almost everyone expects Joe Alt.

- The Giants likely shut out of QB convo, will go WR

- TN is all about an OT. Maybe like LAC.

- Bills signed L Collins.

- Diggs was not the only player feeling their oats on Twitter. D Dawkins was there too with his predictions. And post-season, with the googly eyes hoping he would get his extension. 3x20m.

- LAC wants to move down, and TN needs OT too.

 

The Terms:

- If the Bills believe they have a replacement on the roster for Dawkins, he will be used as trade bait for LAC/TN.

- Bills could then make that trade without exhausting this and next year's draft capital.

- 28, 60, 2025 2nd for 1.5/7 + 4th.

 

Projection:

- 1-4 QB

- LAC - Joe Alt

- NYG select - Nabers, a diva in waiting. He will make Diggs and his passive-aggressive antics look like a straight-shooting choirboy.

- Bills via TN - MHJ.

 

I may be overestimating Dawkins' return. And of course, misreading the tea leaves. But that is my Mighty Kreskin moment for the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

 


Great to hear from you Brandon 😂

 

Bills just paid Dawkins an $11m Signing bonus just to trade him a month later ? They really lighting  Pegs money on fire this offseason ..

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7 minutes ago, alg said:

I rarely post, but feel I owe the community an outlandish projection. And I have earned the right.

- KNEW that Allen was the Josh before the pick when 90% of this board had Rosen.

- Picked Oliver as the target.

- Sorta knew Kinnkaid was the man.

- Strongly believed Diggs would be traded even though everyone claimed the cap was a no-go.

- IDK, I may be in Beane's head ... that's why I need to type this. With that out of the way:

 

Setting the stage:

- Most teams now regard Malik Nabers as the #1 WR

- MHJ dropped a bit due to non-combine participation.

- Rome is showing up on more mocks out of the top 10.

- AZ is going to cash in on a trade-down.

- And if AZ doesn't, the Chargers will.

- LAC could go WR, but almost everyone expects Joe Alt.

- The Giants likely shut out of QB convo, will go WR

- TN is all about an OT. Maybe like LAC.

- Bills signed L Collins.

- Diggs was not the only player feeling their oats on Twitter. D Dawkins was there too with his predictions. And post-season, with the googly eyes hoping he would get his extension. 3x20m.

- LAC wants to move down, and TN needs OT too.

 

The Terms:

- If the Bills believe they have a replacement on the roster for Dawkins, he will be used as trade bait for LAC/TN.

- Bills could then make that trade without exhausting this and next year's draft capital.

- 28, 60, 2025 2nd for 1.5/7 + 4th.

 

Projection:

- 1-4 QB

- LAC - Joe Alt

- NYG select - Nabers, a diva in waiting. He will make Diggs and his passive-aggressive antics look like a straight-shooting choirboy.

- Bills via TN - MHJ.

 

I may be overestimating Dawkins' return. And of course, misreading the tea leaves. But that is my Mighty Kreskin moment for the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

 

Collins can not play left tackle in any situation in 2024 on this team.

 

He is at best the swing tackle on gameday and a possible replacement at left guard during the season if edwards is struggling.

 

I am not convinced collins makes the final roster out of camp.

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3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:


Great to hear from you Brandon 😂

 

Bills just paid Dawkins an $11m Signing bonus just to trade him a month later ? They really lighting  Pegs money on fire this offseason ..

The $11m makes a difference. Not sure how much.

2 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

Collins can not play left tackle in any situation in 2024 on this team.

 

He is at best the swing tackle on gameday and a possible replacement at left guard during the season if edwards is struggling.

 

I am not convinced collins makes the final roster out of camp.

Not Collins. Backup only.

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