Beane's First-Round Deals

[Shaw66]

As I've tried to digest the hole left by Diggs' departure, I don't for a minute think that Beane is going to sit back and just do the best he can when his pick rolls around late in the first round.   That just isn't his style. 

 

We've often seen Beane move around in the first round, and I think we will see it again.   He's done little moves, of course, up a pick or two or three, but we've seen at least two big moves:   Cordy Glenn and picks to move up to Cinci's pick (followed by the trade with Denver to go up and get Josh), and the Bills' first round pick to get Diggs.   Two big draft-related moves to fill a hole.  

 

It caused me to wonder what kind of things Beane could be considering now.   Others of you will have much better ideas than I, and I don't really know how to gauge value, cap, and all the other things that need to be considered, but two thoughts came to mind.

 

Maybe the Vikings want to make a bold move to get up to the top of the draft.   Maybe they have a vision for the future of a rebuilt roster.  Maybe they don't want to write a big check for a receiver.  Would they trade Justin Jefferson for the Bills' #1 and some other consideration?  They did it with Diggs, why not again?   Is Aiyuk still on his first contract?   Who else has a proven receiver with a contract the Bills can afford for a year?

 

Or, more along the Cordy Glenn line, who's the quality starter the Bills might package with their first round pick to move up to the top 10?  Does Kromer like Van Demark so much that he'd be willing to part with Dion Dawkins.   Dion and the Bills #1 for the Giants' #1?   What other players are good enough to bring interest but not so good that they're untouchable?  

 

Whatever, we can be sure that Beane is doing some creative thinking.

Edited April 5 by Shaw66

[Virgil]

The deal that sticks out to me the most was for Edmunds.  That one was way out of left field, but it shows Beane will do whatever it takes to get his person.  

[iccrewman112]

The Giants sure need OL help but I don’t see the Bills moving Dawkins he has generally be healthy at a position of need at with a recently redone deal. Also he played very well by most metrics  last year.

[Nephilim17]

I can't see Beane giving up capital to trade for a veteran WR. That is capital that could help us rise in the draft and get a young future star (one hopes).

My feeling is that after the cap purge they want some young players on cost-controlled contracts for a few years. So I don't see giving up a second for a 30-year-old guy who will want a chunk of money.

But I do see a trade up to the high teens or lows 20s (18-22ish) to secure a guy like Thomas.

EDIT: Sorry, I misread Shaw's post. He's suggesting that Beane gives up a good Bills vet to move up, not that we give up a pick to get a vet.

I don't see that, though. Do you want to take a chance by trading Dawkins? I don't think so. And who else is there to trade? Knox has too much dead money.

Edited April 4 by Nephilim17

[Sweats]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

As I've tried to digest the hole left by Diggs' departure, I don't for a minute think that Beane is going to sit back and just do the best he can when his pick rolls around late in the first round.   That just isn't his style. 

 

We've often seen Diggs move around in the first round, and I think we will see it again.   He's done little moves, of course, up a pick or two or three, but we've seen at least two big moves:   Cordy Glenn and picks to move up to Cinci's pick (followed by the trade with Denver to go up and get Josh), and the Bills' first round pick to get Diggs.   Two big draft-related moves to fill a hole.  

 

It caused me to wonder what kind of things Beane could be considering now.   Others of you will have much better ideas than I, and I don't really know how to gauge value, cap, and all the other things that need to be considered, but two thoughts came to mind.

 

Maybe the Vikings want to make a bold move to get up to the top of the draft.   Maybe they have a vision for the future of a rebuilt roster.  Maybe they don't want to write a big check for a receiver.  Would they trade Justin Jefferson for the Bills' #1 and some other consideration?  They did it with Diggs, why not again?   Is Aiyuk still on his first contract?   Who else has a proven receiver with a contract the Bills can afford for a year?

 

Or, more along the Cordy Glenn line, who's the quality starter the Bills might package with their first round pick to move up to the top 10?  Does Kromer like Van Demark so much that he'd be willing to part with Dion Dawkins.   Dion and the Bills #1 for the Giants' #1?   What other players are good enough to bring interest but not so good that they're untouchable?  

 

Whatever, we can be sure that Beane is doing some creative thinking.

 

 

 

All good points.

The bolded is a scenario i've thought about probably a thousand times already......Minny did it before, would they do it again?

I, for one, would love to have JJ on this team, however, seeing the way Beane is, he is probably done with high WR's from other teams and will probably want to get his in the draft this year, but just not where everyone thinks.......my gut feeling

[boater]

I just hope the College Scouts are on the ball this year. We need them at their best more than ever before.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

The deal that sticks out to me the most was for Edmunds.  That one was way out of left field, but it shows Beane will do whatever it takes to get his person.  

They only moved from 22 to 16 to get up for Edmunds. It wasn’t all that much of an investment but I do agree with your sentiment. 

[Virgil]

Just now, EmotionallyUnstable said:

They only moved from 22 to 16 to get up for Edmunds. It wasn’t all that much of an investment but I do agree with your sentiment. 

 

Was it?  Crap, my brain is broke.  I thought we traded back into the 1st for Edmunds

[The Jokeman]

6 minutes ago, iccrewman112 said:

The Giants sure need OL help but I don’t see the Bills moving Dawkins he has generally be healthy at a position of need at with a recently redone deal. Also he played very well by most metrics  last year.

The Giants could also use some help at TE if Waller retires which been rumored. I'm not saying we could get Knox and #28 for #6 but it's an interesting thought. Personally I wouldn't make the trade. 

Edited April 4 by The Jokeman

[Logic]

While I would love a Justin Jefferson trade...he's going to command record-breaking money when he signs his extension, and I don't think Beane is ready to turn around after the Diggs ordeal and hand $30million+ to another receiver.

Rather, what I view as more likely is that he'd prefer to draft a rookie in round 1, because that player would be cost-controlled for five years, and would allow him to spend money rebuilding other parts of the roster that need it. 

The trade that makes the most sense to me is Chicago at 9 (they don't have a second rounder, and likely would be open to trading back and collecting more picks to build around presumptive first pick Caleb Williams). Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year, plus a 2nd and a 4th, would likely get this deal done. It would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Rome Odunze (one of the "big three" WRs in this year's draft).

The other one that makes sense to me is Denver at 12. The Broncos may want to move back, collect more picks, and go after a Bo Nix type at quarterback. Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year plus a 2nd could get this done. This would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Brian Thomas Jr, the next best receiver after the "big three".

Lastly, failing a move up, I could see the Bills either picking at 28 or moving back into the second round to add a third rounder. In this scenario, they'd draft a receiver in round two (the position is very deep in this draft), and then trade the newly acquired 3rd for a veteran receiver like Brandon Aiyuk. I don't necessarily see them going this route, but it wouldn't shock me.

You're right about one thing: Beane won't be standing pat at 28 and just doing nothing and using all 11 picks. He WILL be wheeling and dealing. It's a lead pipe lock.

[BBFL]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

While I would love a Justin Jefferson trade...he's going to command record-breaking money when he signs his extension, and I don't think Beane is ready to turn around after the Diggs ordeal and hand $30million+ to another receiver.

Rather, what I view as more likely is that he'd prefer to draft a rookie in round 1, because that player would be cost-controlled for five years, and would allow him to spend money rebuilding other parts of the roster that need it. 

The trade that makes the most sense to me is Chicago at 9 (they don't have a second rounder, and likely would be open to trading back and collecting more picks to build around presumptive first pick Caleb Williams). Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year, plus a 2nd and a 4th, would likely get this deal done. It would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Rome Odunze (one of the "big three" WRs in this year's draft).

The other one that makes sense to me is Denver at 12. The Broncos may want to move back, collect more picks, and go after a Bo Nix type at quarterback. Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year plus a 2nd could get this done. This would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Brian Thomas Jr, the next best receiver after the "big three".

Lastly, failing a move up, I could see the Bills either picking at 28 or moving back into the second round to add a third rounder. In this scenario, they'd draft a receiver in round two (the position is very deep in this draft), and then trade the newly acquired 3rd for a veteran receiver like Brandon Aiyuk. I don't necessarily see them going this route, but it wouldn't shock me.

You're right about one thing: Beane won't be standing pat at 28 and just doing nothing and using all 11 picks. He WILL be wheeling and dealing. It's a lead pipe lock.

So to piggyback off the Aiyuk thread that’s ongoing, if you’re trading at least one first rounder possibly 2, who are you trading for?

 

Jefferson or Aiyuk? Both want $ in the 30m range…

 

But I’m in the same boat as you. Don’t see them giving up the drafts picks and the cash either will command. 
 

Chicago is as good a trade spot as any as they surely want more picks this year… 

[Reed83HOF]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

While I would love a Justin Jefferson trade...he's going to command record-breaking money when he signs his extension, and I don't think Beane is ready to turn around after the Diggs ordeal and hand $30million+ to another receiver.

Rather, what I view as more likely is that he'd prefer to draft a rookie in round 1, because that player would be cost-controlled for five years, and would allow him to spend money rebuilding other parts of the roster that need it. 

Jefferson's age is what's key(and the fact he is a proven 1 and likely the best wr in the game) that is what makes him the only vet WR I would trade for and be willing to eat the contract he will get.

 

This is such a glaring hole, beane is certainly swinging big here in the draft, if JJ can't be had.

[Logic]

Just now, Reed83HOF said:

 

This is such a glaring hole, beane is certainly swinging big here in the draft, if JJ can't be had.

I agree. When he said in his press conference yesterday "I hope people know...I'm competitive as hell", I took it as confirmation of what I already knew: Beane doesn't believe in "rebuilding", and he's certainly not envisioning wasting a year of Allen's prime by saying "we're waving the white flag this year". He WILL do what's necessary to replenish his WR corps, I'm certain of it.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

13 minutes ago, Logic said:

I agree. When he said in his press conference yesterday "I hope people know...I'm competitive as hell", I took it as confirmation of what I already knew: Beane doesn't believe in "rebuilding", and he's certainly not envisioning wasting a year of Allen's prime by saying "we're waving the white flag this year". He WILL do what's necessary to replenish his WR corps, I'm certain of it.

 

I would argue not upgrading at HC is contradictory of this. But that might not be something he has the power to do. 

 

I do believe he's going to try to boost the WR corps though and I don't think he wants to just punt a season away. 

[Alphadawg7]

This is a top heavy OT draft, we aren't moving Dawkins to get a WR early and then go fishing late day 2 or day 3 after the fall off in the draft at OT to get one to protect our quarter billion dollar QB.  

Edited April 4 by Alphadawg7

[julian]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

This isnt a great OL draft, we aren't moving Dawkins.  

Is my sarcasm meter broken ? lol because I’m under the impression it’s one of the best OL drafts in history.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, julian said:

Is my sarcasm meter broken ? lol because I’m under the impression it’s one of the best OL drafts in history.

 

I meant at OT...Isn't it top heavy and then takes a drop?  I mean if we are going WR early, I don't want to be fishing for a tackle on day 2 or 3 to protect our quarter of a billion dollar QB.  I could be wrong, as busy as I have been this year I haven't spent a lot of time on the positions I am not expecting us to be in the market for on draft day, at least early.  So I've mostly focused on WR, secondary, and DL.  

 

 

Edited April 4 by Alphadawg7

[julian]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I meant at OT...Isn't it top heavy and then takes a drop?  I mean if we are going WR early, I don't want to be fishing for a tackle on day 2 or 3 to protect our quarter of a billion dollar QB. 

Yeah I agree with you and want no part of moving Dawkins, and you might be correct on the OT being top heavy but as a hole all I’ve heard is this OL class is stacked.

[JerseyBills]

Ayuik and Jefferson both become FAs next year when that Diggs $ comes off the books and Tres $ becomes available after June 1st

[SoonerBillsFan]

One thing in the back of my mind and please correct me if I'm wrong.  Didn't Beane once say he had a hard time evaluating WR talent?  I swear I read or heard something like that.

 

That said...I could see him going ahead and trading #28 etc. For Aiyuk or Jefferson.  

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

This isnt a great OT draft, we aren't moving Dawkins.  

 

Disagree. I think it is one of the better positions early in the draft.

 

Alt, Fashanu, Fautanu, Morgan, Fuaga, Mims, Guyton and Latham all have a legit chance to be round 1 picks. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

 

Was it?  Crap, my brain is broke.  I thought we traded back into the 1st for Edmunds

Crazy to think about now in today’s day and age:

 

Allen Pick: sent #12, and two 2nds, for pick #7
 

Edmunds: sent #22 an early 3rd and 6th, for #16

[LEBills]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

 

Was it?  Crap, my brain is broke.  I thought we traded back into the 1st for Edmunds

Nah we still had KCs first from the Mahomes trade. So we used the third we got from Cleveland in the Tyrod trade (1st pick of the third round) to move up from 22 to 16 to get Edmonds

[Virgil]

8 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Nah we still had KCs first from the Mahomes trade. So we used the third we got from Cleveland in the Tyrod trade (1st pick of the third round) to move up from 22 to 16 to get Edmonds

 

12 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Crazy to think about now in today’s day and age:

 

Allen Pick: sent #12, and two 2nds, for pick #7
 

Edmunds: sent #22 an early 3rd and 6th, for #16

 

It's crazy to think about how well Beane positioned himself to make both of those picks.  We had a ton of draft capital

[Alphadawg7]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Disagree. I think it is one of the better positions early in the draft.

 

Alt, Fashanu, Fautanu, Morgan, Fuaga, Mims, Guyton and Latham all have a legit chance to be round 1 picks. 

 

As I said in follow up clarification that its top heavy.  The OP is proposing we move Dawkins maybe for more ammo to trade up and get a WR.  So we would not be in play for the top heavy prospects in the OP's scenario as that would be used to get a WR.  So I don't want to be fishing around after the drop off for an OT late day 2 or worse day 3 to now protect our quarter of a billion dollar QB.  

 

 

Edited April 4 by Alphadawg7

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

 

It's crazy to think about how well Beane positioned himself to make both of those picks.  We had a ton of draft capital

Well, he positioned himself for the Allen pick by first trading Glenn and picks to get #12.

 

I don't see how he can into the top 10 just trading picks.   He doesn't have the capital.   But a player and his first could get him there.  

 

Bills aren't trading Dawkins (or Spencer Brown?) to move up and expecting to get his replacement in the draft, so it doesn't matter how strong the tackle draft is.   The replacement would have to be on the team or available in free agency.   Edit:  Whoops, Dawg just said that.

 

As someone said - he's just a good bet to do something.

Edited April 4 by Shaw66

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

As I said in follow up clarification that its top heavy.  The OP is proposing we move Dawkins maybe for more ammo to trade up and get a WR.  So we would not be in play for the top heavy prospects in the OP's scenario as that would be used to get a WR.  So I don't want to be fishing around in the drop off for an OT late day 2 or worse day 3 to now protect our quarter of a billion dollar QB.  

 

First its a moot point because he's on a contract extension but I think there is some really good depth beyond the guys that GunnerBill pointed out already. Patrick Paul out of Houston, Kiran Amegadjie of Yale, and Roger Rosengarten of Washington(if you think he can stick out there) are all very good options. In my opinion there are other guys that go beyond this as well. I also really like Garrett Greenfield out of South Dakota State as a down the road type prospect.

[ddaryl]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

  Does Kromer like Van Demark so much that he'd be willing to part with Dion Dawkins.   Dion and the Bills #1 for the Giants' #1? 

if we do this we take on ($41,944,499) in dead cap 

[SoonerBillsFan]

I think fans really need to lessen expectations on a trade up.  We aren't getting into the top 10 and nor should we give up the draft capital to do it.  So let mark the top 3 WR's off the list.

 

Beane really needs to be working OT with all the data, scouting etc. He can to grab a WR that has a good shot of being a stud somewhere in the teens,as that is about as high as we can, and should, move.

Edited April 4 by SoonerBillsFan

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

if we do this we take on ($41,944,499) in dead cap 

Ooh.  Thanks.  That was among the things I didn't know.  So Dion's not a candidate. 

 

Who else might attract attention?  Spencer Brown?  No other lineman.  No linebacker.  Oliver and Epenesa probably have big cap hits, too.  Cook could be a candidate.  The reality is that if the Bills wanted to package a player and the first round pick to move way up, it would have to be a good player.   There aren't many of those on the roster who aren't either untouchable or carry big cap hits.  

36 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I think fans really need to lessen expectations on a trade up.  We aren't getting into the top 10 and nor should we give up the draft capital to do it.  So let mark the top 3 WR's off the list.

 

Beane really needs to be working OT with all the data, scouting etc. He can to grab a WR that has a good shot of being a stud somewhere in the teens,as that is about as high as we can, and should, move.

Well, I don't disagree, but I know that Beane has a knack at surprises.   The reason I asked the question was to hear people speculate about how Beane might pull a rabbit out of a hat.   

 

If you think it's impossible to get up to the top 10, then I'd be looking for Beane to go after a quality number one who's already in the league. 

[Comebackkid]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

One thing in the back of my mind and please correct me if I'm wrong.  Didn't Beane once say he had a hard time evaluating WR talent?  I swear I read or heard something like that.

 

That said...I could see him going ahead and trading #28 etc. For Aiyuk or Jefferson.  

if thats the case be better be for finding a damn good scout that can and quick

[SoonerBillsFan]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Ooh.  Thanks.  That was among the things I didn't know.  So Dion's not a candidate. 

 

Who else might attract attention?  Spencer Brown?  No other lineman.  No linebacker.  Oliver and Epenesa probably have big cap hits, too.  Cook could be a candidate.  The reality is that if the Bills wanted to package a player and the first round pick to move way up, it would have to be a good player.   There aren't many of those on the roster who aren't either untouchable or carry big cap hits.  

Well, I don't disagree, but I know that Beane has a knack at surprises.   The reason I asked the question was to hear people speculate about how Beane might pull a rabbit out of a hat.   

 

If you think it's impossible to get up to the top 10, then I'd be looking for Beane to go after a quality number one who's already in the league. 

Agreed. That is why I am on the phone with the  Vikings.  We give them 28 and the 2nd we picked up to get Jefferson. And I remind them THREE  #1 picks helps them a lot more than 2, in order to move up and grab a QB.

[Shaw66]

33 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Agreed. That is why I am on the phone with the  Vikings.  We give them 28 and the 2nd we picked up to get Jefferson. And I remind them THREE  #1 picks helps them a lot more than 2, in order to move up and grab a QB.

I'm not sure it's so far-fetched.  

[gonzo1105]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I think fans really need to lessen expectations on a trade up.  We aren't getting into the top 10 and nor should we give up the draft capital to do it.  So let mark the top 3 WR's off the list.

 

Beane really needs to be working OT with all the data, scouting etc. He can to grab a WR that has a good shot of being a stud somewhere in the teens,as that is about as high as we can, and should, move.

I agree with you that it is much more highly likely they move into the teens than going all the way to 4,5, or 6. I think 9 is about as high as I can see them going for a sliding Odunze but see Brian Thomas as a much more likely scenario

[Victory Formation]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As I've tried to digest the hole left by Diggs' departure, I don't for a minute think that Beane is going to sit back and just do the best he can when his pick rolls around late in the first round.   That just isn't his style. 

 

We've often seen Diggs move around in the first round, and I think we will see it again.   He's done little moves, of course, up a pick or two or three, but we've seen at least two big moves:   Cordy Glenn and picks to move up to Cinci's pick (followed by the trade with Denver to go up and get Josh), and the Bills' first round pick to get Diggs.   Two big draft-related moves to fill a hole.  

 

It caused me to wonder what kind of things Beane could be considering now.   Others of you will have much better ideas than I, and I don't really know how to gauge value, cap, and all the other things that need to be considered, but two thoughts came to mind.

 

Maybe the Vikings want to make a bold move to get up to the top of the draft.   Maybe they have a vision for the future of a rebuilt roster.  Maybe they don't want to write a big check for a receiver.  Would they trade Justin Jefferson for the Bills' #1 and some other consideration?  They did it with Diggs, why not again?   Is Aiyuk still on his first contract?   Who else has a proven receiver with a contract the Bills can afford for a year?

 

Or, more along the Cordy Glenn line, who's the quality starter the Bills might package with their first round pick to move up to the top 10?  Does Kromer like Van Demark so much that he'd be willing to part with Dion Dawkins.   Dion and the Bills #1 for the Giants' #1?   What other players are good enough to bring interest but not so good that they're untouchable?  

 

Whatever, we can be sure that Beane is doing some creative thinking.

I could not agree more. I think Beane at the very minimum goes up for Brian Thomas Jr.. AND I think it’s very possible that he would go up to #8-#10 for Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Naber. I also expect a second WR will be added at some point during the draft. You’re absolutely right, Beane will not sit still.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

5 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

They only moved from 22 to 16 to get up for Edmunds. It wasn’t all that much of an investment but I do agree with your sentiment. 

He gave up a second round pick.

And he could have just stayed where he was and taken Fred Warner or Shaquille Leonard without giving up any picks.

Vander Esch was gone at 19 but may have been there ar 21 if Dallas took Edmunds. 

 

[Pete]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I meant at OT...Isn't it top heavy and then takes a drop?  I mean if we are going WR early, I don't want to be fishing for a tackle on day 2 or 3 to protect our quarter of a billion dollar QB.  I could be wrong, as busy as I have been this year I haven't spent a lot of time on the positions I am not expecting us to be in the market for on draft day, at least early.  So I've mostly focused on WR, secondary, and DL.  

 

 

OT is top heavy.  There is going to be a big run on OT that will push WRs down the board IMO

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Go get Jefferson. Vikings are in full rebuild mode. Their 2nd round pick is going to be in the mid 30s at worst. Give them 28 and that pick and you still keep your first round pick in 2025. That still also preserves your 2nd round pick in 2025 for a second WR, Edge or safety. 

[Lost]

9 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Go get Jefferson. Vikings are in full rebuild mode. Their 2nd round pick is going to be in the mid 30s at worst. Give them 28 and that pick and you still keep your first round pick in 2025. That still also preserves your 2nd round pick in 2025 for a second WR, Edge or safety. 

 

That's a lot of cumulative money and draft capital all for a guy the Bills could have had anyway and been paying a rookie deal for.  

[Chaos]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Whatever, we can be sure that Beane is doing some creative thinking.

Us old guys don't want to accept, that it is all prepping for 2025, and that 2024 is a "whatever Josh can do" season.  Building excltement for PSL sales for the new stadium.