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The unsexy, unexciting first round pick


Yantha

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2 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:

Our pick is DE: Latu. Moving up to get him. I'm all in.

 

How many times are the Bills gonna invest top picks on defense with terrible results when it matters most?

 

Get Josh Allen help. Period. End of story. 

Edited by njbuff
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Just now, njbuff said:

 

How many times are the Bills gonna invest top picks on defense with terrible results when it matters most?

 

Get Josh Allen help. Period. End of story. 

I agree with you. get Josh that DE (Latu) so our D can actually make a stop in the 4th Q in a meaningful game. Josh gets us the lead and our D lets the opposition march right down and score every time. Get that Pass rusher! Move up to do it.

Also - Curtis Samuel says hi! Get wrecked!

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25 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

I agree with you. get Josh that DE (Latu) so our D can actually make a stop in the 4th Q in a meaningful game. Josh gets us the lead and our D lets the opposition march right down and score every time. Get that Pass rusher! Move up to do it.

Also - Curtis Samuel says hi! Get wrecked!

 

Curtis Samuel is a number 3 or 4 WR.

 

The Bills need to find their #2 WR for 2024 in this draft, with the potential to be the number one WR in 2025 and beyond.

 

This the year to get that WR in the first round. Worry about the rest of the team with the boatload of picks they have on day 3. I'm sure they can find a few players for the D later in this draft (developmental players anyway). 

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5 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I would not expect an IOL with the first round pick, the value of the player could be there but the value of the position makes it tough.  Last year people mocked Torrence to the Bills in the first and they got him in the second.  I fully expect DE, DT or WR with the first pick.  If it were OL, I would think an OT that fell would be more likely than anything inside.

I wouldn't mind an OT at all. Put your best 5 out there, and if Dawkins moves to guard so be it. I would rather have Josh more comfortable in the pocket at this point in his career. I think that's our best bet to win the superbowl. We have enough guys that can catch the ball now. I could get behind IOL in the second too, let McBeane figure out what to do with the leftovers if things get complicated.

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46 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

I agree with you. get Josh that DE (Latu) so our D can actually make a stop in the 4th Q in a meaningful game. Josh gets us the lead and our D lets the opposition march right down and score every time. Get that Pass rusher! Move up to do it.

Also - Curtis Samuel says hi! Get wrecked!

 

At 28, maybe,  but I wouldn't move up for a player with his injury history.  

 

I'd rather not draft a DE in R1,  though.  I can understand the interest in finding an elite pass rusher,  but ignoring the high bust rate, the odds of that outside the top 10 are poor.  You're probably just going to find another guy who averages 6-8 sacks per season. Plus,  they have quite a bit of cap space invested in Miller and Epenesa over the next 2 years,  plus a contract extension likely for Rousseau in the same time frame.  I think they'd be better off throwing a couple of those 4th and 5th rounders at the position (or adding a 30+ veteran after June 1st) and re-evaluate in the next offseason.  

 

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1 minute ago, Brandon said:

 

At 28, maybe,  but I wouldn't move up for a player with his injury history.  

 

I'd rather not draft a DE in R1,  though.  I can understand the interest in finding an elite pass rusher,  but ignoring the high bust rate, the odds of that outside the top 10 are poor.  You're probably just going to find another guy who averages 6-8 sacks per season. Plus,  they have quite a bit of cap space invested in Miller and Epenesa over the next 2 years,  plus a contract extension likely for Rousseau in the same time frame.  I think they'd be better off throwing a couple of those 4th and 5th rounders at the position (or adding a 30+ veteran after June 1st) and re-evaluate in the next offseason.  

 

I always thought with Von on the roster (as a teacher) and our DL rotation that we should have been able to convince a raw DE specimen or two to be on the practice squad. I've been disappointed we haven't been able to find guys like that.

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7 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

What if it turns out that McGovern actually makes a great Center? What if he was sitting there waiting for Morse to retire? Do we know that he isn’t? 

 

If you read the Athletic article by Tim Graham on McGovern (recognizing that it's behind a paywall), I think you'd be pretty convinced that it's the right move.

 

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5 minutes ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

I always thought with Von on the roster (as a teacher) and our DL rotation that we should have been able to convince a raw DE specimen or two to be on the practice squad. I've been disappointed we haven't been able to find guys like that.

 

They weren't counting on needing it.  That miss on Basham really screwed up the depth.  They'd likely have a mid round developmental guy or two on the roster from the last few drafts if not for that.  

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41 minutes ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

I wouldn't mind an OT at all. Put your best 5 out there, and if Dawkins moves to guard so be it. I would rather have Josh more comfortable in the pocket at this point in his career. I think that's our best bet to win the superbowl. We have enough guys that can catch the ball now. I could get behind IOL in the second too, let McBeane figure out what to do with the leftovers if things get complicated.

Brave putting the bolded on this forum :).   I agree for the most part, I do want them to invest a 1 or 2 in a WR though, mostly for the future rather than this upcoming year.

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8 hours ago, SoTier said:

I'm in!   :thumbsup:   I've already advocated drafting a center at #28 in a couple of other threads.  Even if there's not a run on WRs, the fact is a great center will help Allen more than a good WR, and you're more likely to get a great IOLer than a great WR at #28

Who was the last great center drafted in the NFL?  Not good.  But great.  Dermonti Dawson or Dwight Stephenson back in the 90's?  There have been some good ones.  Humphrey for KC is good.  But he is not overly dominant.  Mitch Morse is pretty good.  

 

We need some very good to great WR's.  Josh Allen can escape most pressure, but he can't escape not having elite WR talent.  And for those who were really not paying attention during the second half of last season, Stefan Diggs was not playing pro football at anywhere near an elite level.  

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8 hours ago, Yantha said:

 

We don't know the answer.  

 

But I'd argue that experimentation isn't really an option for a team that is not in "rebuild mode", but rather "championship push" mode.

 

McGovern really surprised me at OG (I was a naysayer....when we brought him in...), and maybe he'd be a good center.  

 

 

Experimentation?

 

McGovern was the #2 ranked center in the country coming to Penn State.

 

He's been a center most of his football life.

 

He didn't get moved from center because he wasn't great at it...........it's just the least valued position on the OL.

 

It's much more important at the college and pro level to have your better interior blockers at the guard position.    

 

Because gone are the days of defense's regularly using a big 0 tech.    Almost everybody uses a 1 tech now instead and that means the Center is basically a "help" blocker and finds himself blocking "air" in pass pro on 3rd downs a lot.    

 

I wouldn't be astonished if McGovern was the second or third best C in the AFC.   

 

 

Edited by BADOLBILZ
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8 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

What if it turns out that McGovern actually makes a great Center? What if he was sitting there waiting for Morse to retire? Do we know that he isn’t? 

 

Asking that question means that you are just another one of the lemmings who think that maybe, just maybe, Beane and McDermott actually might know what they're doing. 

 

5 hours ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

You know, for years i've always just wanted the big "splash" player in the drafts, but i saw an interview with The Hoodie a couple of years back and it completely changed my mindset.

 

I can't remember the interview word for word, but it was basically about how a good OLineman can anchor the trenches for years, help protect the QB (arguably a teams biggest asset)....they are for the most part fairly cheap at re-negotiating contracts, no divas involved and can play the position for a long time.

The interview actually made a lot of sense to me and completely changed my whole mindset.

 

Watching Russ Brandon trade away All Pro LT Jason Peters and replacing him with waiver-wire refugees in 2009 convinced me of the importance of having a solid OL.  I think it was 2 or 3 years before the Bills got around to even drafting an actual LT.

 

4 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Bills need WR and Edge in the worst way for 2024 but even more so for 2025. 

I don't hate taking a C in the first round but they can do that next year. This year getting younger better pass rush and planning for a life without Diggs is the priority. 

 

 

Prioritizing need over talent sets up a team for failure.  A team like the Bills has to make its high draft picks count because the draft is the best place to find the difference makers they need.   If there's a WR and/or DE as well as a C on the board that the Bills have graded as first round talents, they should take the one they think is likely to become a stud.    If there's a first round C on the board but none of the WRs or DEs left are close to his quality, it's a no-brainer to take the C.

 

1 hour ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Who was the last great center drafted in the NFL?  Not good.  But great.  Dermonti Dawson or Dwight Stephenson back in the 90's?  There have been some good ones.  Humphrey for KC is good.  But he is not overly dominant.  Mitch Morse is pretty good.  

 

We need some very good to great WR's.  Josh Allen can escape most pressure, but he can't escape not having elite WR talent.  And for those who were really not paying attention during the second half of last season, Stefan Diggs was not playing pro football at anywhere near an elite level.  

 

Maurkise Pouncey went to the Stillers at #18 in 2010.   Nine times Pro Bowler, 2 time All Pro.   He retired after the 2020 season.   The only season he failed to make the Pro Bowl was the season he suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game of the season.   He came back the next season to be selected All Pro a second time.

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10 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

What if it turns out that McGovern actually makes a great Center? What if he was sitting there waiting for Morse to retire? Do we know that he isn’t? 

We do not know that. We also brought in Clapp. It’s possible the Bills take JPJ at 28 but unlikely. Barton the G is more likely of C/G. Yet both are probably not either available or where the Bills go. But I think DE becomes a possibility if Chop is around or someone falls. BB has done enough in FA that some of these positions certainly are way more possible than we thought 🤷🏻‍♂️DE, WR, DT remain most likely. 

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Gimme:

Latu

Legette

Sweat

Burton and/ or Walker

M. Smith and do what you want after this..

 

Javon Solomon...

Cedric Johnson

J. Crumedy

 

Feel free to throw in a couple Safeties and CBs.

Edited by nosejob
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I'm all in on WR in round 1, but I'll NEVER be against investing in the O-line.

 

It's not as exciting, but a better O-line lifts the entire offensive unit. As long as we're not continuing to ignore the offense, I'll be fine.

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2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

   

 

I wouldn't be astonished if McGovern was the second or third best C in the AFC.   

 

 

LOL.  Sorry I disagree big time on that one.

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3 hours ago, Brandon said:

 

They weren't counting on needing it.  That miss on Basham really screwed up the depth.  They'd likely have a mid round developmental guy or two on the roster from the last few drafts if not for that.  


miss on Basham when they should have taken Humphrey.  Drafting for need over BPA there.  

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1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

Asking that question means that you are just another one of the lemmings who think that maybe, just maybe, Beane and McDermott actually might know what they're doing. 

 

 

Watching Russ Brandon trade away All Pro LT Jason Peters and replacing him with waiver-wire refugees in 2009 convinced me of the importance of having a solid OL.  I think it was 2 or 3 years before the Bills got around to even drafting an actual LT.

 

 

Prioritizing need over talent sets up a team for failure.  A team like the Bills has to make its high draft picks count because the draft is the best place to find the difference makers they need.   If there's a WR and/or DE as well as a C on the board that the Bills have graded as first round talents, they should take the one they think is likely to become a stud.    If there's a first round C on the board but none of the WRs or DEs left are close to his quality, it's a no-brainer to take the C.

 

 

Maurkise Pouncey went to the Stillers at #18 in 2010.   Nine times Pro Bowler, 2 time All Pro.   He retired after the 2020 season.   The only season he failed to make the Pro Bowl was the season he suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game of the season.   He came back the next season to be selected All Pro a second time.

This is a falsehood.  If anything sets you up for failure, it is wasting draft picks trading up for a specific player.  

 

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10 minutes ago, Yantha said:

LOL.  Sorry I disagree big time on that one.

 

Big time?   Ok.  What 3 centers in the AFC could McGovern absolutely not be as good as next year?

 

Humphrey and Linderbaum were early picks but a lot of the better centers in the AFC were picked on day 3 or undrafted..........and some of THEM got to center because they weren't good enough to play guard.    McGovern was a stud C recruit,  was a 3rd round pick and has proven himself as a starting G in the NFL.

 

The point is,  there isn't any reason to assume he won't be a strength.

 

Now whether David Edwards is a starting NFL G any longer is a far bigger concern.  

 

And it wouldn't be a surprise if Dion Dawkins game began to decline this season and Spencer Brown prices himself out of Buffalo and suddenly the Bills were going into 2025 wanting 2 new tackles.

 

I am all for addressing OL with multiple picks in this draft........but the 1st round is WAY too early for a center in a draft with stud premium position talent at WR and OT.  

 

  

 

 

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30 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Gimme:

Latu

Legette

Sweat

Burton and/ or Walker

M. Smith and do what you want after this..

 

Javon Solomon...

Cedric Johnson

J. Crumedy

 

Feel free to throw in a couple Safeties and CBs.

I don't follow this sh!t anywhere NEAR the way you guys do, so forgive the dumb question.

 

If there's no trading up or down, you're saying Latu in the first, Legette in the second.  Bills don't have a third, much to Beane's consternation.  So that means Sweat is going in the fourth?  Would he last that long?

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1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

Asking that question means that you are just another one of the lemmings who think that maybe, just maybe, Beane and McDermott actually might know what they're doing. 

 

 

Watching Russ Brandon trade away All Pro LT Jason Peters and replacing him with waiver-wire refugees in 2009 convinced me of the importance of having a solid OL.  I think it was 2 or 3 years before the Bills got around to even drafting an actual LT.

 

 

Prioritizing need over talent sets up a team for failure.  A team like the Bills has to make its high draft picks count because the draft is the best place to find the difference makers they need.   If there's a WR and/or DE as well as a C on the board that the Bills have graded as first round talents, they should take the one they think is likely to become a stud.    If there's a first round C on the board but none of the WRs or DEs left are close to his quality, it's a no-brainer to take the C.

 

 

Maurkise Pouncey went to the Stillers at #18 in 2010.   Nine times Pro Bowler, 2 time All Pro.   He retired after the 2020 season.   The only season he failed to make the Pro Bowl was the season he suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game of the season.   He came back the next season to be selected All Pro a second time.

Good answer.  Would not put him up there with the all time greats.  But had a real good career.

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3 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

I'm all in on WR in round 1, but I'll NEVER be against investing in the O-line.

 

It's not as exciting, but a better O-line lifts the entire offensive unit. As long as we're not continuing to ignore the offense, I'll be fine.

But after listening to the radio, it looks like there's at least a dozen Olimen worthy of higher rd. picks. We gotta dress, what 46-53? We should concentrate on impact players and not players for other teams to poach...JMO We have an almost entire Oline in waiting. We need a Bruce Smith, Eric Moulds/Lee Evans or Leonard Smith.

 

I say F=it and use next year's 1st to do it. We need to make an extra 2nd and 3rd this year!

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10 hours ago, Yantha said:

 

It's a fair point but you can't sign a probowl center.  They all have jobs with other teams at this point.

 

WR is likely the round 1 pick, but remember the thread was about a scenario where our top WRs are all gone by 28, and Beane said he'd pass on WR if the value wasn't there in the pick 28 bracket of players.

Sorry, I just said "WR".....  

 

If none of the WR at 28 have a 1st round grade - we’ve screwed up by not moving up

 

if picking there you then look to pass rushers and guys that effect the qb

 

no luck there? Have to try to move back

 

no luck there? Maybe an OT or CB?


no luck there? May as well trade it for an established guy at a less premium spot since you aren’t saving money anyway. Take the risk out and let someone else get their draft target 

 

to put it in perspective- average centers are paid like good kickers. Bass is the 8th ranked kicker and would be a slightly above average paid center (essentially even with Morse now)

that’s not a top 40 wide receiver or top 50 edge rusher pay check. 
 

could you imagine taking a kicker anywhere near that spot? 

 

Edited by NoSaint
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18 minutes ago, nosejob said:

But after listening to the radio, it looks like there's at least a dozen Olimen worthy of higher rd. picks. We gotta dress, what 46-53? We should concentrate on impact players and not players for other teams to poach...JMO We have an almost entire Oline in waiting. We need a Bruce Smith, Eric Moulds/Lee Evans or Leonard Smith.

 

I say F=it and use next year's 1st to do it. We need to make an extra 2nd and 3rd this year!

 

I mostly agree. As I said, I'm also wanting to draft a WR in the 1st.

 

O-Line is impactful though, as it can allow our existing QB/WRs/TEs/RB to thrive & reach their full potential. Josh with a comfortable pocket & time to survey the field would increase his accuracy & decision-making, allow routes to develop for receivers, not allow defenses to pressure the QB without blitzing, open up holes for the RB or Josh to take off, etc.

 

The Chiefs targeted their O-line in FA & the draft and managed to win multiple SBs after trading away one of the top 3 WRs in the game.

 

Building up the OL will help establish everything for years to come, but I say this while still wanting a WR in round 1. If anything, we need a plan in place to replace Diggs when that time comes. It's not about any perceived drama, only the inevitable slowing down.

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6 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Brave putting the bolded on this forum :).   I agree for the most part, I do want them to invest a 1 or 2 in a WR though, mostly for the future rather than this upcoming year.

I want to win a super bowl next year. I understand the wr thought process, it's just a question of when and to what degree a wr can help. I want the help this year, don't care about the future while we have Josh, have to be worried about 2024. 

Edited by 4BillsintheBurgh
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6 hours ago, Brandon said:

 

They weren't counting on needing it.  That miss on Basham really screwed up the depth.  They'd likely have a mid round developmental guy or two on the roster from the last few drafts if not for that.  

Considering the value of a pass rusher I don't see that as an excuse. In fact, I'm assuming they weren't thinking long term with Boogie well before they traded him. I think you're right, Boogie precluded them from having room for a mid round guy. I'm talking someone like Jarvis was, a long shot, maybe even an international guy or a udfa. Just to try and make use of the environment to hit it big. As opposed to a jag wr or lb. 

Edited by 4BillsintheBurgh
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7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Correct. So based off that game our #1 need is an outside WR that can win vertically. A close 2nd is a pass rusher that can actually take down Mahomes. We didn't lose to the Chiefs because of our IOL.


The Chiefs never punted and dominated in the trenches. It’s well known their strength is IOL. They didn’t need 1st round draft pick X receiver opposite their other star receiver.

 

The Bills let pressure up the middle often to Jones. Great player, but had his way with Morse.

 

Maybe we have a difference of opinion, but I have a feeling Beane sees it my way.

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14 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

What if it turns out that McGovern actually makes a great Center? What if he was sitting there waiting for Morse to retire? Do we know that he isn’t? 

 

Dallas tried him at center.  It went so well they moved him back to guard. 

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1 hour ago, Rigotz said:


The Chiefs never punted and dominated in the trenches. It’s well known their strength is IOL. They didn’t need 1st round draft pick X receiver opposite their other star receiver.

 

The Bills let pressure up the middle often to Jones. Great player, but had his way with Morse.

 

Maybe we have a difference of opinion, but I have a feeling Beane sees it my way.

 

 

It's true that Chris Jones is the best defensive player on the field that day anytime the Bills play the Chiefs.

 

But the mistake Bills fans like yourself make is not realizing that the Chiefs can't get to Josh Allen either.  

 

Neither QB got sacked and each was hit only twice in that divisional loss this season.

 

Combine this last loss and the "13 seconds game" matchup prior to it..........and each QB got sacked twice and Mahomes got hit 6 times and Allen only 4.

 

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13 hours ago, Whites Bay said:

I don't follow this sh!t anywhere NEAR the way you guys do, so forgive the dumb question.

 

If there's no trading up or down, you're saying Latu in the first, Legette in the second.  Bills don't have a third, much to Beane's consternation.  So that means Sweat is going in the fourth?  Would he last that long?

I should have added the caveat of BB using next years 1st to create another 2nd and 3rd. We won't sit idly by from 60 to 128.

Edited by nosejob
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15 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Asking that question means that you are just another one of the lemmings who think that maybe, just maybe, Beane and McDermott actually might know what they're doing. 

 

 

Watching Russ Brandon trade away All Pro LT Jason Peters and replacing him with waiver-wire refugees in 2009 convinced me of the importance of having a solid OL.  I think it was 2 or 3 years before the Bills got around to even drafting an actual LT.

 

 

Prioritizing need over talent sets up a team for failure.  A team like the Bills has to make its high draft picks count because the draft is the best place to find the difference makers they need.   If there's a WR and/or DE as well as a C on the board that the Bills have graded as first round talents, they should take the one they think is likely to become a stud.    If there's a first round C on the board but none of the WRs or DEs left are close to his quality, it's a no-brainer to take the C.

 

 

Maurkise Pouncey went to the Stillers at #18 in 2010.   Nine times Pro Bowler, 2 time All Pro.   He retired after the 2020 season.   The only season he failed to make the Pro Bowl was the season he suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game of the season.   He came back the next season to be selected All Pro a second time.

 

 

The Bills had a pretty solid O line last year.  Still can't get past the Chiefs.  

 

If Peters never left Buffalo, nothing would have changed for the Bills.  They were no worse without him--they had their best record in his 5 years his rookie year, where he appeared in 5 games.

 

LT and C are not game changers.  Bills need one beside Josh Allen.

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I think that when the Bills moved Conner McGovern into the center spot, they were signaling that McGovern would be Morse's replacement for the foreseeable future.   I still think WR is slightly more likely than other positions Buffalo could address at #28, but if they didn't go that route, I think they would look to DT, (Jer'Zahn Newton) DE, (Chop Robinson) or Safety (Cooper De Jean) before they pick an interior offensive lineman.  Just my opinion

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14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's true that Chris Jones is the best defensive player on the field that day anytime the Bills play the Chiefs.

 

But the mistake Bills fans like yourself make is not realizing that the Chiefs can't get to Josh Allen either.  

 

Neither QB got sacked and each was hit only twice in that divisional loss this season.

 

Combine this last loss and the "13 seconds game" matchup prior to it..........and each QB got sacked twice and Mahomes got hit 6 times and Allen only 4.

 

 

This incorrect. There's a difference between sacks and pressure.

 

Pressure is the reason Josh Allen didn't hit Khalil Shakir on the final drive and we had to settle for a Field Goal... which was missed.

 

Pat Mahomes faced 2 QB pressures the entire game, according to PFF. Josh faced 8.

 

Ed Oliver has zero defensive pressures on 13 head to head snaps vs Joe Thuney. 

 

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38 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Pressure is the reason Josh Allen didn't hit Khalil Shakir on the final drive and we had to settle for a Field Goal... which was missed.

 

That was Chris Jones on Dawkins, not on Morse. Anyways, Chris Jones is a mismatch against any offensive lineman in the final minutes of a game, other than maybe 6 or 7 guys in the entire league. You aren't going to get over the hump by improving at center and expect to just take Chris Jones out of the game. We get over the hump by out scoring KC. Which means when three perfect deep balls hit the intended receiver in the hands, we can't have all three of them hitting the ground.

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