The unsexy, unexciting first round pick

[Yantha]

Hi all.  Haven't posted on here for a long long time.  Let's have a conversation and see if we can do it without the use of the term WIDE RECEIVER that I think we all (myself included) are excited about adding a few from this draft.

 

I'm here to talk about the possibility of investing in a new, long term, potentially dominant anchor for our O-line.

 

OC Jackson POWERS-Johnson.  Mitch Morse was a stable and good player.  Arguably not elite.  I watched this analysis on JPJ that I thought was spot on.  Last time I brought up drafting Center on this board I got destroyed.  I still expect a lot of barf emojis and nay-sayers.... but again, I'm ONLY suggesting Center if there is a run on WRs and JPJ is the value pick.

 

I feel that there might be a RUN on wide receivers in round one and without trading up, we might miss on the top WRs that we have been mocking at pick 28.  Watching Beane talk about draft strategy, I'm thinking that they won't take a WR at 28 if they have the board looking like top round 2 players.  Beane himself said he would pass on WR if that were the case, selecting the higher ranked player.

 

At 28, I think that's a pretty good spot for the top center in the draft.

 

Could they go DT?  Safety?  Edge? other?  Well of course......

 

But let's not sleep on center.  We COULD move one of our Guards over..... or just pick our Center that would likely be our guy for a decade.

 

Here's the link:

 

[CaptnCoke11]

I’d love that pick if he was there but I think the Steelers will get him at 20

[SoTier]

I'm in!     I've already advocated drafting a center at #28 in a couple of other threads.  Even if there's not a run on WRs, the fact is a great center will help Allen more than a good WR, and you're more likely to get a great IOLer than a great WR at #28

[mrags]

First I don’t think he’ll be there. 

second, if MHJ, Nabors, Odunze, Thomas, Franklin, Mitchell are all gone, and Sweat is gone, sure. 
 

In also don’t think the Bills see it as a need as they seem committed to McGovern there. 
 

im also not positive the Bills take WR in rd 1 even if one of those guys is there. I think they’ll go defense somewhere but it could be almost any position imo. Corner, safety, D-end, DT. About the only position on defense I think is safe they won’t draft early is LB. 

I hope he doesn’t wear that stupid looking helmet thing we do pick him 

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

First I don’t think he’ll be there. 

second, if MHJ, Nabors, Odunze, Thomas, Franklin, Mitchell are all gone, and Sweat is gone, sure. 
 

In also don’t think the Bills see it as a need as they seem committed to McGovern there. 
 

im also not positive the Bills take WR in rd 1 even if one of those guys is there. I think they’ll go defense somewhere but it could be almost any position imo. Corner, safety, D-end, DT. About the only position on defense I think is safe they won’t draft early is LB. 

I hope he doesn’t wear that stupid looking helmet thing we do pick him 

Yes, in some ways when the discussion of center pops up it reminds me of the MLB debate from last year. The fans had convinced themselves that Beane was bluffing and we would be taking a LB early. Then it never materialized and it turned out the team was pretty set in their mind at the spot 

 

Same with Center this year. Trade Bates. Cut Morse. So obviously there's a hole there. But again, I really feel like this was the plan dating back to last year. Bringing in McGovern and Edwards and then getting Edwards snaps as the OL6 guy. I could see them taking a G/C type in later rounds....but I really believe they believe in the OL the way they have it presented. Of course, it also wouldn't shock me if we brought in Brian Allen from the Rams either. Just 28 and played under Kromer. Seems like if center is a question still...that may be where they look.

[H2o]

31 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I’d love that pick if he was there but I think the Steelers will get him at 20

Not agreeing with I would love the pick, but that the Steelers draft him. Makes too much sense. 

 

I wouldn't be mad at Graham Barton, as long as we plan to make moves to jump up early in the 2nd, or even the late 1st for that matter, for a WR. If we could land Barton AND Legette somehow? Sign me up. 

Edited March 28 by H2o

[mrags]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Yes, in some ways when the discussion of center pops up it reminds me of the MLB debate from last year. The fans had convinced themselves that Beane was bluffing and we would be taking a LB early. Then it never materialized and it turned out the team was pretty set in their mind at the spot 

 

Same with Center this year. Trade Bates. Cut Morse. So obviously there's a hole there. But again, I really feel like this was the plan dating back to last year. Bringing in McGovern and Edwards and then getting Edwards snaps as the OL6 guy. I could see them taking a G/C type in later rounds....but I really believe they believe in the OL the way they have it presented. Of course, it also wouldn't shock me if we brought in Brian Allen from the Rams either. Just 28 and played under Kromer. Seems like if center is a question still...that may be where they look.

I don’t doubt that a C might be of a want for them. And if all those WRs and DT are gone then maybe it’s a possibility. But if all those guys are gone then there’s likely some other impact player that has fallen. Latu comes to mind here. 
 

theres 3 Cs in the draft that I’d go with. JPJ, Frazier, and Van-Pran. Frazier and Van-Pran could go as high as 2nd rd somewhere. If we took a WR with 28 and no DT was there at 60 that’s worth it I’d go with one of them if available. 
 

but the issue with DT I think is I’m not sure they view that as a need anymore either, just like C. They’ve thrown a bunch of resources at the position this offseason. Unfortunately they are all old players. But that might mean they do need to younger at the position for the following season and going forward. 

[ROCBillsBeliever]

36 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I’d love that pick if he was there but I think the Steelers will get him at 20

 

PLEASE, Tomlin: Take JPJ, so we don't have to! Bump another (Insert word that's been banned from this thread) down the board!

 

Am I doing this right?

[The Jokeman]

25 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Yes, in some ways when the discussion of center pops up it reminds me of the MLB debate from last year. The fans had convinced themselves that Beane was bluffing and we would be taking a LB early. Then it never materialized and it turned out the team was pretty set in their mind at the spot 

 

Same with Center this year. Trade Bates. Cut Morse. So obviously there's a hole there. But again, I really feel like this was the plan dating back to last year. Bringing in McGovern and Edwards and then getting Edwards snaps as the OL6 guy. I could see them taking a G/C type in later rounds....but I really believe they believe in the OL the way they have it presented. Of course, it also wouldn't shock me if we brought in Brian Allen from the Rams either. Just 28 and played under Kromer. Seems like if center is a question still...that may be where they look.

I don't think Allen will be added because Clapp started for the Chargers last season at Center and has played there most of his NFL career. Now I wouldn't be shocked if we add a veteran G to compete or drafted a kid for long term depth but just don't see another veteran Center addition. 

[SoCal Deek]

What if it turns out that McGovern actually makes a great Center? What if he was sitting there waiting for Morse to retire? Do we know that he isn’t? 

[Yantha]

7 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

What if it turns out that McGovern actually makes a great Center? What if he was sitting there waiting for Morse to retire? Do we know that he isn’t? 

 

We don't know the answer.  

 

But I'd argue that experimentation isn't really an option for a team that is not in "rebuild mode", but rather "championship push" mode.

 

McGovern really surprised me at OG (I was a naysayer....when we brought him in...), and maybe he'd be a good center.  

[Turbo44]

If he's there, it would be a solid pick.  BUT if done, he better be prepared to trade up from 60 to the 40s to grab a Fanklin/Legette type unless they're highon Walker (NC) who should be available at 60.

[KingBoots8]

I could see a player like Tanor Bortolini in the 4th at center, or Drake Nugent in the 5th/6th range. I don’t think we have it as a need, but if the talent is there it could be hard to pass up. 

[SoCal Deek]

13 minutes ago, Yantha said:

 

We don't know the answer.  

 

But I'd argue that experimentation isn't really an option for a team that is not in "rebuild mode", but rather "championship push" mode.

 

McGovern really surprised me at OG (I was a naysayer....when we brought him in...), and maybe he'd be a good center.  

You’re right…we, the fans, don’t know but I’m betting that the Bills staff does. They see these guys every day in practice. I’m betting that they’ve had plenty of discussions with McGovern about the move. 

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, Yantha said:

Hi all.  Haven't posted on here for a long long time.  Let's have a conversation and see if we can do it without the use of the term WIDE RECEIVER that I think we all (myself included) are excited about adding a few from this draft.

 

I'm here to talk about the possibility of investing in a new, long term, potentially dominant anchor for our O-line.

 

OC Jackson POWERS-Johnson.  Mitch Morse was a stable and good player.  Arguably not elite.  I watched this analysis on JPJ that I thought was spot on.  Last time I brought up drafting Center on this board I got destroyed.  I still expect a lot of barf emojis and nay-sayers.... but again, I'm ONLY suggesting Center if there is a run on WRs and JPJ is the value pick.

 

I feel that there might be a RUN on wide receivers in round one and without trading up, we might miss on the top WRs that we have been mocking at pick 28.  Watching Beane talk about draft strategy, I'm thinking that they won't take a WR at 28 if they have the board looking like top round 2 players.  Beane himself said he would pass on WR if that were the case, selecting the higher ranked player.

 

At 28, I think that's a pretty good spot for the top center in the draft.

 

Could they go DT?  Safety?  Edge? other?  Well of course......

 

But let's not sleep on center.  We COULD move one of our Guards over..... or just pick our Center that would likely be our guy for a decade.

 

Here's the link:

 

No no no no.  This is the guy we pass on and get a shiny object to satisfy the masses.  On a more optimistic note, he’s also the guy who, two years from now, will be the subject of many “I told you we should have drafted…..”  threads from the same masses.

[BarleyNY]

24 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

What if it turns out that McGovern actually makes a great Center? What if he was sitting there waiting for Morse to retire? Do we know that he isn’t? 

Seems like the Bills plan is probably to figure out the best combination of McGovern, Clapp and Edwards to put on the field. Plus there’s now some injury insurance, which is nice.

 

On McGovern, he was a much better pass blocker than run blocker last season. I can see why a move to C might work out for him since he will be doubling DTs in the run game a lot more consistently than he was at OG. It’s certainly worth a shot. 

[Yantha]

I had a little extra time on my hands this morning... so I ran some simulations (10 each) with PFF, Pro Football Network, and NFL Mock Draft Database.

 

The ADP for JPJ were as follows:

 

PFF (only ran one sim since I don't have a subscription):  Picked at 26

 

Profootball Network:  Range was from pick 16-26, ADP was pick 24 (Dallas)

 

NFL Mock Draft Database:  Range was much wider from pick 16-46 with ADP of 30 (so he'd be there at 28....). and basically if JPJ slipped to round 2, he would tumble to 35 (Arizona) or 46 (Panthers in a trade down).

 

So I guess you just never know how a board will fall.  Every year there's a handful of players that were thought to go in the top 25 that slip the the bottom of the first or beyond.

 

Now we are getting pretty close to the draft and conversations are getting into the weeds.  Love this time of year.

Edited March 28 by Yantha

[NoSaint]

You can sign a prowbowl center for less than gabe Davis just received 

 

WR isn’t the shiny exciting pick, it’s the financially sound pick.

[Yantha]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

You can sign a prowbowl center for less than gabe Davis just received 

 

WR isn’t the shiny exciting pick, it’s the financially sound pick.

 

It's a fair point but you can't sign a probowl center.  They all have jobs with other teams at this point.

 

WR is likely the round 1 pick, but remember the thread was about a scenario where our top WRs are all gone by 28, and Beane said he'd pass on WR if the value wasn't there in the pick 28 bracket of players.

2 minutes ago, Yantha said:

 

It's a fair point but you can't sign a probowl center.  They all have jobs with other teams at this point.

 

WR is likely the round 1 pick, but remember the thread was about a scenario where our top WRs are all gone by 28, and Beane said he'd pass on WR if the value wasn't there in the pick 28 bracket of players.

Sorry, I just said "WR".....  

[BarleyNY]

8 minutes ago, Yantha said:

I had a little extra time on my hands this morning... so I ran some simulations (10 each) with PFF, Pro Football Network, and NFL Mock Draft Database.

 

The ADP for JPJ were as follows:

 

PFF (only ran one sim since I don't have a subscription):  Picked at 26

 

Profootball Network:  Range was from pick 16-26, ADP was pick 24 (Dallas)

 

NFL Mock Draft Database:  Range was much wider from pick 16-46 and basically if JPJ slipped to round 2, he would tumble to 35 (Arizona) or 46 (Panthers in a trade down).

 

So I guess you just never know how a board will fall.  Every year there's a handful of players that were thought to go in the top 25 that slip the the bottom of the first or beyond.

 

Now we are getting pretty close to the draft and conversations are getting into the weeds.  Love this time of year.

As we get closer to the draft I think we are getting a much better idea of what the impact of scarcity will be. Excluding the elite prospects, teams can wait on positions like WR (quantity in the draft) and DB (due to so many remaining available in FA), but DL is going to go fast. Not a lot of good ones there. 

Edited March 28 by BarleyNY