Free Safety options already on our roster... or do you really think it should be in the draft?

[transplantbillsfan]

I get it... there are a couple Safety threads right now.  If mods want to merge with this that one, that's fine.  I just think that thread is bringing up the only player who really won't be an option to convert to Free Safety, though I'll include him in the options in the poll.

 

The way I see it, the Bills might want to get a little creative this offseason with personnell and not simply replace all players that leave the roster with a new player they have to sign or draft.  Yes, the Bills have 10 draft picks.  But let's be realistic, if even half of our upcoming draft become significant contributors next season, that draft is a Homerun.  And I'd say there's almost no shot of finding half (5) of that draft becoming immediate or even in season starters.

 

So.... Buffalo needs to look long at hard at replacing UFAs we're going to lose to FA or retirement with roster replacements.

 

The obvious ones are the guys who play the same position.  Let's hope Shorter or Shavers can replace Sherfield's role as a depth WR/Special Teams player.  And if the Bills choose to cut Harty (possible to likely) for the CAP savings, let's hope Hamler or Isabella can replace him.  I know both of those guys are signed to Futures contracts... I believe that means that next year they're basically on a one year vet minimum salary... but that was with just a relatively quick google search if anyone wants to correct me.

 

As far as WRs go, I think if those things can happen, our offense will be pretty well set for next year when we draft 1 or 2 WRs with 1 of them likely being a 1st or 2nd round guy and an expected starter opposite Diggs.

 

Sorry for the tangent...  all that is to say that the secondary is the most complicated Unit on the team going into next season.

 

Safeties under contract next year right now are Poyer and Hamlin.  That's it.  I do think that Cam Lewis will be resigned at the vet minimum because the team loves him as depth across all positions in the secondary and he has great special teams ability.

 

Hyde's retiring.  I think we can all agree.

 

The team arguably has 4 starting CBs in White, Douglass, Benford and Elam.  Yes, I realize big question marks hover over Elam and White, but they have starting CB talent.  I think everyone would agree.  And I know Dane Jackson is a UFA who likely won't be back, but I'm going to factor him into this overall equation because, like Lewis, I think he's another player the team (justifiably) loves as a depth piece.

 

So... as it currently is, here's our secondary with the bolded guys as rostered guys (when healthy)... otherwise, practice squad guys:

 

CB- Tre White

CB- Rasul Douglas

CB- Kaiir Elam

CB- Christian Benford

CB- Taron Johnson

CB- Siran Neal

CB- Kyron Brown

CB- Ja'Marcus Ingram

 

S- Jordan Poyer

S- Damar Hamlin

S- ??????????

S- ??????????

S- ??????????

 

I think if we did absolutely nothing at the CB position in the offseason, we'll be good at that position in terms of both starters and depth.  Agree? I understand the White injury is concerning, but on the plus side, he got hurt in early October.  So, we'll see.  Even if White is out, I've heard so much praise for Ingram from the film buffs like Joe Marino and Bruce Nolan that I wonder if he might be the catalyst for trying the move I'm about to propose.

 

We might end up drafting a Safety early, but with the void we have going into this offseason at DT (only Oliver under contract) and the need for a true #2 or even #1b WR, I think Safety comes in the middle rounds.

 

So... I think our starting Free Safety for next year is already on our roster or was already on our roster.

 

Here are the players and the arguments for and against.  I'll go in descending order from what I think would be most likely & effective to least.  And I think the first 2 are pretty close.

 

Rasul Douglas

Argument for: Physical, zone corner with LOTS of zone experience, incredible instincts, a nose for the ball, and a very vocal leader.

 

Argument against:  Age.  How many effective years will we get with him as our starting Safety?  I think a good number considering Safeties generally age well, but we'll see.

 

Christian Benford

Argument for: Physical, zone corner, very good instincts, a nose for the ball, if he plays well at Safety this year and we extend him after his rookie contract, a starting Safety is a lot cheaper than a starting CB.

 

Argument against:  Young player we've already been grooming as our starting CB who is already really good at the position.  Why ruin a good thing?

 

Tre White

Argument for: Zone corner with maybe the most familiarity with McDermott's D, incredible instincts, a nose for the ball, team leader loved and respected by everyone

 

Argument against: Injury would not only hinder his start to 2024, but also his transition to Safety.  Not a very good tackler.

 

Dane Jackson

Argument for: Physical, zone corner with LOTS of familiarity with McDermott's D, good instincts, loved and respected by everyone on the team.

 

Argument against: Not under contract, so bringing him back would be a serious projection for a guy who's only a borderline starting CB.

 

Kaiir Elam

Argument for: Speed to the ball, a nose for the ball, well-documented as a hard worker, NFL bloodlines, former 1st round draft pick under contract for fairly cheap for 2 more years so converting him successfully (if we could) could get rid of the whole "wasted draft pick" narrative.

 

Argument against: Poor tackler, Has struggled for 2 years to learn McDermott's Zone D.

 

 

Personally, I want to see Douglas extended for 2 years so he's under contract for 3 years total (would lower his CAP hit next year) at a mid level starting Safety range.  I think he'd be a stud at Safety and the 2nd Green Bay CB McDermott would have brought to Buffalo and converted.

 

How about you?

Edited January 24 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

I'm surprised most people seem to think we're going to find our 2024 starting safety in the mid rounds of the upcoming draft.

 

Safeties are pretty huge in McDermott's D.

[JMM]

Safety is a priority, Beneford is staying as a starting CB, Elam has absolutely NO skills to play as a safety in a zone scheme. The only answer will be a FA and a safety drafted in either 1st or 2nd rd. Count on it

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Douglas is a possibility. Packers flirted with the idea. Depends on can White play.

 

I think Po could move into Hyde’s role, they were interchangeable. Then sign Jeremy Chinn as that box safety.

 

 

[Shaw66]

Taron Johnson -

 

Pros - Smart, knows the defense, hard hitter.  

 

Cons - creates another hole to fill.  

[Billzgobowlin]

I think a must resign is Dane Jackson.  He has been crucial when our starting CBs go down with injuries.  He makes the defense work.  He is in stellar but is solid.  With that being said we need to look around the league for a Hyde type signing that is underrated but cheap.  I think a Rapp type signing

Edited January 24 by Billzgobowlin

[transplantbillsfan]

38 minutes ago, JMM said:

Safety is a priority, Beneford is staying as a starting CB, Elam has absolutely NO skills to play as a safety in a zone scheme. The only answer will be a FA and a safety drafted in either 1st or 2nd rd. Count on it

 

Why not Douglas?

35 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Douglas is a possibility. Packers flirted with the idea. Depends on can White play.

 

I think Po could move into Hyde’s role, they were interchangeable. Then sign Jeremy Chinn as that box safety.

 

 

 

I don't think Po would be a good Free Safety.  In fact, that 4th roster Safety spot I wouldn't be shocked if we bring Rapp back after he tests FA and finds out he won't get much because he didn't see the field much at all this season (McBeane's plan all along????) and continues to be groomed as Po's replacement.

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Taron Johnson -

 

Pros - Smart, knows the defense, hard hitter.  

 

Cons - creates another hole to fill.  

 

I don't see this even being considered.  Taron Johnson in that slot CB/hybrid role is probably the most important player on the Bills defense outside of Milano when he's healthy.

[whorlnut]

47 minutes ago, JMM said:

Safety is a priority, Beneford is staying as a starting CB, Elam has absolutely NO skills to play as a safety in a zone scheme. The only answer will be a FA and a safety drafted in either 1st or 2nd rd. Count on it

Count on it? Ok. Haha

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 Taron Johnson in that slot CB/hybrid role is probably the most important player on the Bills defense outside of Milano when he's healthy.

McDermott's defense us driven by the safeties, not the nickel corner.  Safety is the most important position on the defense. When McBeane arrived, did they sign a free agent nickel corner?  No, they signed two safeties.  

[BullBuchanan]

Has to be a draft pick.

 

Douglas is in his prime as a near-elite CB.

White is likely done.

Jackson is a free agent.

Elam doesn't have the skills.

Benford is a great corner - no reason for him to change positions.

[Brandon]

I expect them to re-sign Rapp and then add a safety on day 2. 

 

 

[BarleyNY]

I certainly would not limit myself to one player or handcuff myself in the draft. So much depends on free agency. Sometimes good players slip through the cracks, sometimes the market is tough. I wouldn’t be looking at top of the market safeties, but I’d sign either a good starting level safety to a reasonable contract or a decent stopgap to go with a draft pick. 

[Rico]

Just say NO to the goofy looking high-motor lunch-pailer from Iowa in the 1st round please.

[Maine-iac]

Just spit balling here but Darnell Savage .......... fast, played with Douglas, not sure the price but my hope would be the money we paid Hyde would cover it.

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Taron Johnson -

 

Pros - Smart, knows the defense, hard hitter.  

 

Cons - creates another hole to fill.  

Now that you mention Johnson maybe Neal could also be a candidate for safety.

[noacls]

If Iowa kid is there he is pick at 28. McD dream player

[MJS]

The safety market has been pretty down in free agency. They can find a quality safety to sign, I bet.

 

I have no idea who will be available. I'll look when it gets closer.

[poblano]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Taron Johnson -

 

Pros - Smart, knows the defense, hard hitter.  

 

Cons - creates another hole to fill.  

 

Siran Neal.  But also creates a hole although is easier to fill the gunner (Isabella has it done )

 Maybe Dorian Williams can fill the role, knows the scheme also had experience. 

[JMM]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Why not Douglas?

 

I don't think Po would be a good Free Safety.  In fact, that 4th roster Safety spot I wouldn't be shocked if we bring Rapp back after he tests FA and finds out he won't get much because he didn't see the field much at all this season (McBeane's plan all along????) and continues to be groomed as Po's replacement.

 

I don't see this even being considered.  Taron Johnson in that slot CB/hybrid role is probably the most important player on the Bills defense outside of Milano when he's healthy.

Down the line I see Douglas as possibly moving to a FS. But for now, they need as CB 1.

[freddyjj]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I'm surprised most people seem to think we're going to find our 2024 starting safety in the mid rounds of the upcoming draft.

 

Safeties are pretty huge in McDermott's D.

Hyde was a 5th round pick and Poyer a 7th.  Granted they had played a few years in league already but neither had high draft pick pedigree. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Tre White’s recovery is the wildcard. He should be back in October, Benford isn’t starting over him. 
 

Benford has the talent and tools to be an elite safety. His shortcoming also are hid better at safety. 

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, Rico said:

Just say NO to the goofy looking high-motor lunch-pailer from Iowa in the 1st round please.

 

And I'd add...the insanity of using their top pick to fill a need at a position of low value should have died around 2009.  

 

(Cue the response that McD's safeties are not of low positional value)

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

McDermott's defense us driven by the safeties, not the nickel corner.  Safety is the most important position on the defense. When McBeane arrived, did they sign a free agent nickel corner?  No, they signed two safeties.  

 

Shaw, just think of Taron's versatility. He's the reason the team plays such a high percentage of nickel. He's amazing in coverage. He's an amazing Blitzer. He's an amazing tackler.

 

There's a reason he's 2nd team All Pro.

 

You don't move Taron to Safety for the same reason we really never considered or even tried to move Milano to MLB.

2 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Hyde was a 5th round pick and Poyer a 7th.  Granted they had played a few years in league already but neither had high draft pick pedigree. 

 

Bolded is the reason our starting Safety in 2024 won't be a 5th-7th round draft pick.

[MrEpsYtown]

Kyle Dugger. Something like 4 years, 45 million…11.25 per maybe? They were all over him pre draft and spent all that scouting time at that D2 school. 

 

I’d pay more for Xavier McKinney. He can play either strong or free and can play single high, two high. He tackles, makes plays and still has upside. He’s also 3 years younger than Dugger. 
 

I’d also sign up for Gardner-Johnson. The Bills showed a lot of interest in him pre draft. Drafted Dawson Knox about 10 picks before he went. But he is a great fit and similar to Hyde in terms of skill set. 

[BillsFanForever19]

We're not going to convert young Starting CB's or starting quality CB's to Safety. It's infinitely easier and cheaper to find a Safety than it is a CB. 

[transplantbillsfan]

42 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

We're not going to convert young Starting CB's or starting quality CB's to Safety. It's infinitely easier and cheaper to find a Safety than it is a CB. 

 

That's part of the reason for the proposal.

 

We have 4 potential (3 for sure when healthy) high calibre starting CBs on the roster already. Do you really want to see 1 or 2 high quality CBs on the bench while our Safety position languishes?

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Kyle Dugger. Something like 4 years, 45 million…11.25 per maybe? They were all over him pre draft and spent all that scouting time at that D2 school. 

 

I’d pay more for Xavier McKinney. He can play either strong or free and can play single high, two high. He tackles, makes plays and still has upside. He’s also 3 years younger than Dugger. 
 

I’d also sign up for Gardner-Johnson. The Bills showed a lot of interest in him pre draft. Drafted Dawson Knox about 10 picks before he went. But he is a great fit and similar to Hyde in terms of skill set. 

 

Forgot Dugger was a UFA. Let's see if he hits the market 

[BillsFanForever19]

40 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

That's part of the reason for the proposal.

 

We have 4 potential (3 for sure when healthy) high calibre starting CBs on the roster already. Do you really want to see 1 or 2 high quality CBs on the bench while our Safety position languishes?

 

Forgot Dugger was a UFA. Let's see if he hits the market 

 

White will have to be moved on for Cap Space. He has an out in his contract this offseason that we have to exercise. We simply cannot pay him the contract we signed him to before his ACL and Achilles injuries back to back.

 

He's a 16.4m cap hit this season and a 16.7m cap hit next season. We can get out from under it this offseason and with the condition he's in and our cap situation, we really don't have a choice.

 

So that leaves Douglas and Benford as our Starters. Taron in the Nickel. Elam as a backup on the outside.  Dane and Cam Lewis are FA's - White and Neal will be cap casualties. We'll have to get some depth underneath Douglas, Benford, Johnson, and Elam as is. 

 

Safety will be fine. Hyde will probably retire and even if he doesn't, he won't be playing here. Poyer will probably be here another year to help bring along a Rookie in Round 2 or 3. Or we sign a guy they like who doesn't break the bank, being a Safety. The position will not "languish".

 

It'll be fine. But one things for sure, we won't be moving a CB. Makes no sense and there's no guarantee they can even play the position or even want to anyways.

 

Like any other position, we have a hole and we'll fill it through the Draft or FA.

Edited January 25 by BillsFanForever19

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, Rico said:

Just say NO to the goofy looking high-motor lunch-pailer from Iowa in the 1st round please.

 

I think "high-motor lunch-pailer" is an unfair description of Cooper Dejean. He was state 100m champion in high school he is freakish athletically. 

 

I am NOT advocating the Bills drafting him in round 1 though. I think he will be a good NFL defensive back and I actually think he can play corner - as long as it is in a zone heavy scheme - but if the Bills draft him in round 1 to play corner they are chasing their own tails for the Elam miss and if they draft him in round 1 to play safety then the positional value is horrible. 

 

I want a first round wide receiver. I have wanted one for three years now. The only non-receiver pick I could see a logical defence of is a dynamic pass rusher. But late first doesn't exactly feel like the spot for that in this draft anyway. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

He's a 16.4m cap hit this season and a 16.7m cap hit next season. We can get out from under it this offseason and with the condition he's in and our cap situation, we really don't have a choice.

 

If he won't re-negotiate we don't have a choice. But we do have leverage for a re-negotiation. He has no new money left on his contract. If he still wants to play surely his best chance of getting back to something like his best is on a team, with a staff and a scheme he knows? So there is I would think a pretty obvious re-negotiation route there. He is a very real candidate for a pay cut. 

[GunnerBill]

The free agent I can see them targeting is Kamren Curl of the Commanders. Former 7th rounder out of Arkansas, has played in a similar defense in Washington, is a genuine multi-functional safety who has played in the box and deep centre field which allows them to carry on doing a lot of the disguise they have done with Hyde and Poyer. 

 

Spotrac has him at $15.8m AAV. If he genuinely gets that much he is probably out of our price range, but I think it is a tad high. I can see him in that $12m range. Draft a guy in the 3rd or 4th, let Curl and Poyer play, bring that guy along so he steps in for 2025. 

[Pete]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think "high-motor lunch-pailer" is an unfair description of Cooper Dejean. He was state 100m champion in high school he is freakish athletically. 

 

I am NOT advocating the Bills drafting him in round 1 though. I think he will be a good NFL defensive back and I actually think he can play corner - as long as it is in a zone heavy scheme - but if the Bills draft him in round 1 to play corner they are chasing their own tails for the Elam miss and if they draft him in round 1 to play safety then the positional value is horrible. 

 

I want a first round wide receiver. I have wanted one for three years now. The only non-receiver pick I could see a logical defence of is a dynamic pass rusher. But late first doesn't exactly feel like the spot for that in this draft anyway. 

Im OK with Cooper in the first if we sign a #1 WR.  The number one priority must be finding a #1 WR for Josh

[NeverOutNick]

CJ Gardner Johnson is the answer if we can’t hit on one after the 2nd round. I HOPE we don’t take a safety in the first couple rounds because that’s just spinning the wheels as always of not really helping the only part of our team that gets us to a SB out. 
 

CJ is young, he’s going to be relatively cheap after this injured season and he’s very good with room to grow. He fits the mold of bargain with big upside that Beane usually goes for. I’d love grabbing him as I think he still could be star in this league. 
 

Let’s save the early round picks for WR and OT so we can keep our dreams of winning a Super Bowl alive. There is no Kyle Hamilton in this draft and even if there was I’m still going WR with how epic the talent there is at the top

[Pete]

Can we please put to bed the notion of Tra being moved to Safety?  The position of Safety is like the name implies.  You must be a sound tackler being a Safety, because usually you are the last line of defense.  Tra was a great CB and lockerroom guy, but he is not a good tackler.  Benford is one that could make the transition, but I like him at CB

Edited January 25 by Pete

[The Jokeman]

12 hours ago, Brandon said:

I expect them to re-sign Rapp and then add a safety on day 2. 

 

 

I wouldn't be shocked if we took another DB in Round 6 or 7 or even add another cheap veteran. 

[Bill from NYC]

13 hours ago, JMM said:

Safety is a priority, Beneford is staying as a starting CB, Elam has absolutely NO skills to play as a safety in a zone scheme. The only answer will be a FA and a safety drafted in either 1st or 2nd rd. Count on it

Something that stupid wouldn't surprise me even a little bit. In fact, I can see McDermott actually trading up in round one for a safety.

 

Josh needs wide receivers and protection but first things first. Let's grab a safety. This can be a 2006 Groundhog day. Wouldn't that be swell?!?!

 

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/teams/bills

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Shaw, just think of Taron's versatility. He's the reason the team plays such a high percentage of nickel. He's amazing in coverage. He's an amazing Blitzer. He's an amazing tackler.

 

Uh, yeah.  This is EXACTLY why he should be a safety.   Hyde and Poyer play all over field because they do all of what you said.  

 

Before Taron arrived, the Bills never thought of moving Hde or Poyer to slot corner.  Why not?  Because safety is a more important position.  

 

Have you ever seen a team draft a slot corner in the first round?  I don't think so.  But teams take safeties in the first round.  Why one and not the other?  Because safety is a more important position.

 

 

[Orlando Tim]

I voted Elam 100% on what I hope happens because otherwise we wasted his talent. Picking a good coverage CB to play zone is dumb. Dude is a freak athlete and I hope we get some use, but I expect a draft pick

[Allen2Moulds]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think "high-motor lunch-pailer" is an unfair description of Cooper Dejean. He was state 100m champion in high school he is freakish athletically. 

 

I am NOT advocating the Bills drafting him in round 1 though. I think he will be a good NFL defensive back and I actually think he can play corner - as long as it is in a zone heavy scheme - but if the Bills draft him in round 1 to play corner they are chasing their own tails for the Elam miss and if they draft him in round 1 to play safety then the positional value is horrible. 

 

I want a first round wide receiver. I have wanted one for three years now. The only non-receiver pick I could see a logical defence of is a dynamic pass rusher. But late first doesn't exactly feel like the spot for that in this draft anyway. 

I couldn't agree more.

Not only a good year for WR talent, but this is a BIG class, opposite of last year. I just started YouTube scouting and haven't made up my mind, but it already seems like the general consensus is 

1. Harrison

2. Neighbors

3. Odunze.

 

These 3 are likely to be long gone, and not even trade up targets. The next 2 that I like that could be mid to late 1st, are Legget from SC, looks like an AJ Brown type to me, and Brian Thomas from LSU. LSU guys seem to always transfer well to the NFL.

 

What are your thoughts on WR?

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I couldn't agree more.

Not only a good year for WR talent, but this is a BIG class, opposite of last year. I just started YouTube scouting and haven't made up my mind, but it already seems like the general consensus is 

1. Harrison

2. Neighbors

3. Odunze.

 

These 3 are likely to be long gone, and not even trade up targets. The next 2 that I like that could be mid to late 1st, are Legget from SC, looks like an AJ Brown type to me, and Brian Thomas from LSU. LSU guys seem to always transfer well to the NFL.

 

What are your thoughts on WR?

 

I put my list elsewhere earlier in the week but basically at this stage I have it Harrison, Odunze, Nabers tier 1. Then Legette, Franklin, Thomas tier 2. Then Worthy, Mitchell, Coleman tier 3.

[Allen2Moulds]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I put my list elsewhere earlier in the week but basically at this stage I have it Harrison, Odunze, Nabers tier 1. Then Legette, Franklin, Thomas tier 2. Then Worthy, Mitchell, Coleman tier 3.

I also like Tez Walker a lot. Removing the top 3, I think I like Tez Walker, Thomas, and than Mitchell. But I admit, Legget feels like the biggest boom or bust pick. Would love to see the Bills double dip. 1st and 4/5th round pick on WR. 

Edited January 25 by Allen2Moulds