Kmart128 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 There have beens 7 tie games the past 6 seasons. And not one since the end of 2022... the NFL is due for a tie game soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, ImpactCorey said: The Texans vs Colts game is a big one. Win and in. But there is something else on the line: if they tie the Bills are in! No other games end up mattering (for playoff birth alone). Furthermore if that game ends in a tie and Steelers and Jaguars both end up winning, both the Texans and Colts are out. If I was the one scripting the NFL, this is the curveball I'd throw out there. Correct me if I’m wrong but the only other game that “REALLY” matters is the Steelers - bc if the Steelers lose, no matter what anyone else does, including the Bills losing, the Bills secure a wild card spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImpactCorey Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, bobobonators said: Correct me if I’m wrong but the only other game that “REALLY” matters is the Steelers - bc if the Steelers lose, no matter what anyone else does, including the Bills losing, the Bills secure a wild card spot. That is true, unless of course the Steelers win. It is the FIRST game that matters, but not the only. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motorin' Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Gregg said: You have a better chance of seeing snow in July then you do in seeing this game end in a tie. The funny thing is, if Pitt and Jacksonville lose, if the Indy / Texans game goes to overtime they'd be in the position where a tie puts them both in the playoffs. Indy would win the South. And the Texans would be the #7 seed. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Those 2 teams look pretty close on paper. Would not surprise me if either the Colts/Texans for example kicked a 40+ yard FG at the end to tie and sent to OT. But to have the OT end scoreless in a dome? That's going to take some doing. Gonna need a lucky turnover or two and missed/blocked FG for that to happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, ImpactCorey said: That is true, unless of course the Steelers win. It is the FIRST game that matters, but not the only. Yeh you’re right. I looked at it wrong with Jags. If Jags lose that bumps them completely down and frees up extra wild card spot for winner/tie of Colts Texans game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptnCoke11 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Bills are going to need to win period. Odds are Jags and Steelers will both win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 A thread about a potential tie game has three pages already. We all need to get outside. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, CaptnCoke11 said: Bills are going to need to win period. Odds are Jags and Steelers will both win. Titans are going to be super motivated. Vrabel wants this one, he was pissed this week and likely Henry's last game as a Titan, he really wants it. I also think the drenching cold rain is going to screw up the Steelers in Baltimore. I love Huntley and the backups going all out in a no pressure type game. They don't like the Steelers and they certainly don't want them winning on their home field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bferra13 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, MikePJ76 said: I have to say I don't want the Bills playing the colts if they win. Feels like a really bad matchup. Man, I see that as the best matchup round 1. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WotAGuy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, ImpactCorey said: I had to update my diagram due to a typo. Thanks to @RangerDave for pointing it out! The Bills could tie and be in?? McD chomping at the bit: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ta111 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 45 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said: Bills are going to need to win period. Odds are Jags and Steelers will both win. Actually, those aren’t the odds. The odds favor either the Jags or Steelers losing. That’s why the odds give the Bills 85% chance of making the playoffs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImpactCorey Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 41 minutes ago, Ta111 said: Actually, those aren’t the odds. The odds favor either the Jags or Steelers losing. That’s why the odds give the Bills 85% chance of making the playoffs. You're mostly correct. 85% assumes that every game has a 50/50 shot. Vegas odds alone tells us this isn't the case. Some teams are more likely to win any one game over another. Using current Vegas odds and the 3 games in question (Pitt/Balt, Tenn/Jax, Buf/Miami), the games can be adjusted to show that a result that hurts the Bills has a percent chance of 59.4%, 65.8%, and 45.5% respectively. Multiplying those out to get the odds that exact sequence happening and the Bills missing is 17.8%. That means the chances of Bills making is %100 - 17.8% or 82.2%, lower than your suggested 85%. This also assuming that no ties happen, which is a safe assumption. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vanislebills44 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 u got a better chance of hamas leadership being invited to a bar mitzvah than the game ending in a tie 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 47 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said: You're mostly correct. 85% assumes that every game has a 50/50 shot. Vegas odds alone tells us this isn't the case. Some teams are more likely to win any one game over another. Using current Vegas odds and the 3 games in question (Pitt/Balt, Tenn/Jax, Buf/Miami), the games can be adjusted to show that a result that hurts the Bills has a percent chance of 59.4%, 65.8%, and 45.5% respectively. Multiplying those out to get the odds that exact sequence happening and the Bills missing is 17.8%. That means the chances of Bills making is %100 - 17.8% or 82.2%, lower than your suggested 85%. This also assuming that no ties happen, which is a safe assumption. Great post. Only thing I disagree with is the bolded. If we’re getting to the specificity of 82.2%, it’s going to be different if ties are considered. Ties have gotten significantly more likely since the NFL went to 10 minute overtimes. It’s usually just 2 or 3 total drives now. All you need sometimes is a missed 45 yard FG. Plus, there are a few scenarios in play where a tie could result in both teams making the playoffs. If one of those comes up, you’ll see both teams play much more conservatively in OT if they get the chance. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warrior9 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 hours ago, MikePJ76 said: I have to say I don't want the Bills playing the colts if they win. Feels like a really bad matchup. It would quite literally be our best matchup out of all of the teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImpactCorey Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Just now, warrior9 said: It would quite literally be our best matchup out of all of the teams. I do like that match up. I wouldn't be too afraid of Pittsburgh either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 There are to many ties in this league Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 hours ago, PBF81 said: The odds of a tie are probably about the same as they were for a Dalton-to-Boyd 49-yard TD pass on 4th-and-12 with under a minute to play against the Ravens' D. Should be a great game. Just say Never !!!! 10 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said: I do like that match up. I wouldn't be too afraid of Pittsburgh either. In the playoffs, we cannot fear anyone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikePJ76 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, warrior9 said: It would quite literally be our best matchup out of all of the teams. we all view it differently I guess. I just feel more comfortable with this Bills defense against teams that will throw the ball more effectively than run it. I don't like a matchup with the colts or the steelers because they ran the ball with a physical style and for about the same amount. The dolphins have lots of rushing yards but its a different style and I think in pressure moments they will throw the ball. I just don't like the idea of those two colts backs vs the Bills. They will shorten the game and make it a more physical punishing game. I would much rather play the texans and know they go as the passing game goes because I would feel good about Buffalo's veteran defense vs that passing offense especially in the weather in buffalo if its an issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBF81 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, ganesh said: Just say Never !!!! Well, there were two ties league-wide last season, one in 2021. None this season. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warrior9 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 17 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said: we all view it differently I guess. I just feel more comfortable with this Bills defense against teams that will throw the ball more effectively than run it. I don't like a matchup with the colts or the steelers because they ran the ball with a physical style and for about the same amount. The dolphins have lots of rushing yards but its a different style and I think in pressure moments they will throw the ball. I just don't like the idea of those two colts backs vs the Bills. They will shorten the game and make it a more physical punishing game. I would much rather play the texans and know they go as the passing game goes because I would feel good about Buffalo's veteran defense vs that passing offense especially in the weather in buffalo if its an issue. The Steelers have been atrocious all year running the ball minus last week. They do not run it with physicality. If this was our run D 2 years ago, i'd agree and say colts scare me.. nothing about Gardner Minshew and Zach Moss scare me. JT isnt the same player he was pre ankle injury. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikePJ76 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 25 minutes ago, warrior9 said: The Steelers have been atrocious all year running the ball minus last week. They do not run it with physicality. If this was our run D 2 years ago, i'd agree and say colts scare me.. nothing about Gardner Minshew and Zach Moss scare me. JT isnt the same player he was pre ankle injury. Like I said we all view it differently. I don't want any part of those running games in the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 47 minutes ago, PBF81 said: Well, there were two ties league-wide last season, one in 2021. None this season. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I was just thinking there hasn't been one yet, that would be weirdly fitting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBF81 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Warcodered said: I was just thinking there hasn't been one yet, that would be weirdly fitting. Wouldn't it be FUBAR if we tied. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImpactCorey Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 (edited) 37 minutes ago, PBF81 said: Wouldn't it be FUBAR if we tied. Well, the good news is a tie with Miami still gets the Bills into the playoffs. As a matter of fact, if ANY of the 4 games that matter to the Bills end in a tie, they are in. Edited January 5 by ImpactCorey 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 And if they tie they are both out. It is possible but the odds are 1 in 5000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said: And if they tie they are both out. It is possible but the odds are 1 in 5000 and it is not zero Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills6969 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 If we beat Mia the winner of this game will likely be our 1st round opponents Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 hours ago, ImpactCorey said: I put together this helpful diagram in game time order so you you know that stakes as we approach the Bills game Sunday night. Nice work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 25 minutes ago, ganesh said: and it is not zero Sure feels like zero, doesn’t it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warrior9 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 hours ago, MikePJ76 said: Like I said we all view it differently. I don't want any part of those running games in the playoffs. It’s just really strange that you’d rather not a play a team that has a back up QB playing(Steelers and colts both) because you think they can run the ball and that scares you. Especially when we’ve proven we can stop the run. It a very very odd viewpoint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Your Brown Eye Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I always read headlines like this as if I have Tourette's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, ganesh said: and it is not zero Buy your powerball tickets and stay up to watch the drawing. The chances are not zero. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 10 hours ago, ImpactCorey said: The Texans vs Colts game is a big one. Win and in. But there is something else on the line: if they tie the Bills are in! No other games end up mattering (for playoff birth alone). Furthermore if that game ends in a tie and Steelers and Jaguars both end up winning, both the Texans and Colts are out. If I was the one scripting the NFL, this is the curveball I'd throw out there. No one is scripting anything. This absolute BS needs to stop. It's nonsensical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImpactCorey Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 52 minutes ago, Big Turk said: No one is scripting anything. This absolute BS needs to stop. It's nonsensical. Relax. I was only kidding about that part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Fan Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 hours ago, stevestojan said: A thread about a potential tie game has three pages already. We all need to get outside. Anything less than 100 pages around here is small potatos 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKBillFan Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12 hours ago, BullBuchanan said: virtually no chance the game ends in a tie. If it's 4&99 at my own 1 yard line with 1:00 on the clock, I'm going for it. No reason to not. The Colts would risk a punt in that scenario. The Texans would not. A tie would suit the Colts as they already hold the tiebreaker over the Texans. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 hours ago, warrior9 said: It’s just really strange that you’d rather not a play a team that has a back up QB playing(Steelers and colts both) because you think they can run the ball and that scares you. Especially when we’ve proven we can stop the run. It a very very odd viewpoint Bills would stomp all three of those teams. No disrespect to any of theirs teams, but a game in Orchard park against Gardner Minshew? Bring it 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) 3 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said: Bills would stomp all three of those teams. No disrespect to any of theirs teams, but a game in Orchard park against Gardner Minshew? Bring it The Bills didn't stomp Bailey Zappe or Easton Stick the last two weeks. Gardner Minshew is Brady compared to them. The Colts are a a good team that is well coached. That second part should be enough to scare you if the first part isn't. Edited January 6 by BullBuchanan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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