Kincaid Comparisons

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, KDIGGZ said:

I didn't say I'm arguing for the sake of arguing. I skip over the topics I agree with and I respond to those I disagree with. If that upsets you then you can mute me. I personally want to see other points of view. If everyone said "I love the Bills" and there was no discussion I would probably go to another team's board, which I've done in the past 

 

Im not upset and don't at all feel compelled to mute you, everyone is entitled to their own view points.  I was just responding to what you wrote.  

 

You said and I quote :  "Also as for being negative, if everyone was negative I would likely be the most positive. I often take the opposing point of few in my responses. I'm not going to post in a thread and say "I agree." What's the point?"

 

 

Im not accusing you of this, but that is what you said, so not sure how else that is supposed to be taken.  You said if everyone was negative, you would then be positive.  You didn't say you take the view point of what you believe...you said you take the "opposing" point of view to what everyone else thinks.  I mean isn't that basically the definition of arguing for the sake of arguing?  

 

Truthfully, I don't even think you do this, but that is just what you said.  I think its more you just have a more negative bias towards the Bills and your interest gravitates towards that.

[Logic]

I used Zach Ertz as a comparison for Kincaid prior to the season. That comment was met with some resistance, as if it was an insult. Mind you, Ertz has been in the league for a decade and counting, made 3 Pro Bowls, and had a stretch where he went over 800 receiving yards in four straight seasons.

What I meant was that Ertz was a very good tight end in his prime, but was more of a possession, move-the-chains, 3rd down magnet type than a game-breaking Travis Kelce or Rob Gronkowski type. So far, based solely on his rookie season, the Ertz comparison doesn't seem too far off.

Now, with that being said...I will be the first to admit that Kincaid has run-after-catch and deep threat ability that is not being used. When Josh threw him that long ball against New England, I did a double-take, because I'm not used to the Bills deploying him as a deep threat in that manner very often.

Maybe the way the Bills offense utilizes him will change. Maybe he'll improve leaps and bounds from year one to year two, as many players do. So far, though, based on what we've seen, the Ertz comparison wasn't too far off. And for the record, it was never meant to be an insult, and an elite possession receiver that moves the chain is a great thing to have at tight end.

Edited January 3 by Logic

[2003Contenders]

TEs historically have a pretty big learning curve because of the variety of things they are asked to do both in terms of protections as well as the passing game. It is a bit unfair to compare Kincaid to LaPorta given that LaPorta has had an out-of-this-world rookie season. All things considered, Kincaid has had a fine rookie season with 66 receptions for 589 yards.

 

His 66 receptions rank 8th in the league for TEs.  He caught 81.48% of his targets, which ranks ahead of all the big-time TEs such as Engram(80%), McBride (78%), Likely (77.78%), Kelce (76.86%), Hockenson (74.8%), Andrews (73.77%), Goedert (73.42%), Kittle (72.22%), and LaPorta (71.68%). So he is doing a good job catching the ball. It's not his fault that the goons that design the plays for the Bills are not placing him in a position to be more productive (just 2 TDs).

[JohnNord]

2 hours ago, ngbills said:

This is likely going to ruffle some feathers around here. Every year there are guys stats that overstate their performance. I think that is year it is Kincaid. This is less about his ability and more how he was used most of the season. This past game we finally saw him going downfield where he should be. He is not Cole Beasley who will catch and pass and quickly turn up field for the extra yards squeezing through guys, he is not a monster TE that will catch a pass and run guys over for 5 yards. Yet he was primarily used in that capacity racking up easy catches but limited yards or impact. Below are some comps from the other starting TE's around the league.

 

Yards per rec

Kincaid 8.9

Kittle 15.7 tops amongst TE's

Most starters are in the 10-11 range

 

TD

Kincaid 2

LaPorta is top at 9

Many others have 5-6. Kincaid at the low end with 2

 

1st Downs

Kincaid 26

Kelce 51 tops amongst TE's

Most with similar rec numbers are in the 30's and 40's. Kincaid is low end. 

 

Average Depth of Target

Kincaid 5.8 yards

Pitts is tops at 11.4 yards; Kittle is at 9.4 yards

Most are in the 6-7 range, though some in the 5's with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Yards after Catch

Kincaid 4.3 yards

Kittle and Njoku at 7.4 yards are tops

Many are in the 4-6 range with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Broken Tackles

Kincaid 3

McBride is at 10 and Njoku and LaPorta are at 9

Many other from 2-7 range. Kincaid at low end. 

 

This is not a Kincaid sucks post. This is a they are confused in how to use him post and lets not celebrate his # of rec's stats. He is not a throw it to and watch him run over or around guys like he is being used. He is a tall lanky TE that should be going down the same and catching contested passes. Most NFL caliber players could replicate Kincaid catches or they would be out the league. He can and should do more and I want to see that from him...like we saw some of last week. I am happy he broke some reception records blah blah, but lest see them cut him loose. 

I think there’s a lot of truth to this.  Kincaid has tremendous potential but needs to be used correctly.  LaPorta is used much better in Detroit’s offense but if you swapped both players I don’t think LaPorta puts up the numbers Kincaid did in Buffalo.  

It seems like Kincaid was being used in the “safety valve” role that Cole Beasley used to have which would explain his low YPC.
 

I never got the impression that Dorsey and the offense were great running plays out 12 personnel and I think that was part of the problem.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

2 hours ago, mrags said:

Not his fault he hasn’t been used properly. 

That has been my single biggest gripe with Joe Brady. For all of the faults that (rightfully) had Dorsey exit, he had finally started to use Kincaid as part of the gameplan and Brady...really hasn't. Even when it would seem that the moment is perfect for it, like vs the Pats.

 

The Dolphins are beat up on their inside LBs and Ramsey is going to be shadowing Diggs. This is the perfect time to use motion to move the Dolphins CBs and then use Kincaid to exploit mismatches. 

 

Reallllly hope we see something like that.

[KDIGGZ]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im not upset and don't at all feel compelled to mute you, everyone is entitled to their own view points.  I was just responding to what you wrote.  

 

You said and I quote :  "Also as for being negative, if everyone was negative I would likely be the most positive. I often take the opposing point of few in my responses. I'm not going to post in a thread and say "I agree." What's the point?"

 

 

Im not accusing you of this, but that is what you said, so not sure how else that is supposed to be taken.  You said if everyone was negative, you would then be positive.  You didn't say you take the view point of what you believe...you said you take the "opposing" point of view to what everyone else thinks.  I mean isn't that basically the definition of arguing for the sake of arguing?  

 

Truthfully, I don't even think you do this, but that is just what you said.  I think its more you just have a more negative bias towards the Bills and your interest gravitates towards that.

I try to have a more open minded "league-wide" view as I have a lot of friends who are not Bills fans. Typically what you get around here is "the Bills are amazing and can do no wrong" and we know that's not true as they have a very good chance of missing the playoffs. The Bills have been a good team the past few years but clearly not as good as people around here would lead you to believe. You would think we have won the past 3 out of 4 Superbowls and Josh has back to back MVP's. I don't think I'm as controversial as it seems, I'm just stating unpopular opinions and facts

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

up until a couple months ago, Kincaid's average air yards per target were 3.3 yards, amongst the lowest in the league. I got downvoted the most of any post ive ever written for stating that fact. Maybe people thought i was speaking down on him. But its all about how we're using him thats the issue.

Throws 3 yards down the field should be high percentage completions. The reasons why should be obvious.

Having these plays in our offense are good to have, it gets Josh in a rhythm, 3 yards becomes 5 & 6 etc. But the numbers show Kincaid needs to get the ball more & deeper down the field.

As an aside: to me this issue is similar imho to how we were using Cook. The numbers showed he needed more touches & when he did he proved why with good results. Kincaid did the same thing when he broke out with production we havent seen here maybe ever. Perhaps the injury had the greatest affect on him, but now that he's healthy the air yards need to be more around 10 yards than 3. If even only just to open up more of the underneath stuff.

 

Yeah the dump off stuff with Kincaid started right away against the Jets and continued all the way until last week. 

 

The Bills never changed course - Dorsey or Brady - on that depth of target. 

 

One thing we don't have a measure of is Kincaid's 40-time, broad, vertical, 3-cone, 20 yard shuttle or bench because he didn't workout or complete the combine. I mention this because he recently did an interview where he talked about his offseason plan including getting stronger. We've seen him be able to be tackled quickly and take some hard shots. 

 

I think the smooth route runner is correct, the hands is correct, but he doesn't look like a physical mismatch type Tight End, and certainly I don't think he runs as fast as LaPorta's 4.59. 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Yep he's a very good TE. But does a very good TE's output garner a 1st round draft pick? My argument back then was even a decent WR was probably going to put up better numbers. We really needed a #2 WR. Could have had Rashee Rice among others

 

Let's try this.  Here is a table listing the contributions of every WR and TE drafted in the first and second round of 2023 sorted by number of receptions.

 

On your honor, without looking up their stats, please indicate which are WR and which are TE using the number in the first column (eg, TE = #, #, #, #)

Extra credit: indicate which players were selected in the first and which in the second round.

 

Thanks.  If a decent WR will put up better numbers than a TE, should be cinchy.

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, KDIGGZ said:

I try to have a more open minded "league-wide" view as I have a lot of friends who are not Bills fans. Typically what you get around here is "the Bills are amazing and can do no wrong" and we know that's not true as they have a very good chance of missing the playoffs. The Bills have been a good team the past few years but clearly not as good as people around here would lead you to believe. You would think we have won the past 3 out of 4 Superbowls and Josh has back to back MVP's. I don't think I'm as controversial as it seems, I'm just stating unpopular opinions and facts

 

I don't actually disagree with your assessment in this reply that the Bills have been a good, but not consistently great, team the past few years.  They have consistently found ways to beat themselves, so its a fair comment you are making here.  And you are not wrong about how some go to that positive extreme, but I just don't think the answer to that is to go the negative extreme either.  All you get is two sides of extremes where no one is right.  I try and stay realistic and as unbiased as one can when a fan of a team.  

 

But honestly, I feel like you have been quite reasonable in our dialogue here and its been an interesting convo so kudos 

 

Either way, all good here from me.  

[John from Riverside]

I could’ve swore that I saw a thread whenever we drafted him talking about how many receptions he was going to have as a rookie because rookie tight ends don’t get used that much
 

The guy has like 70 receptions

[shane nelson]

Thanks for putting this together, I think only fair to match his status to Kelce and Kittle rookie seasons.  After all, he now owns the Bills rookie record for receptions.  Really having a solid season considering he did not get a lot of looks for the first halfs.   

[finn]

26 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Yeah the dump off stuff with Kincaid started right away against the Jets and continued all the way until last week. 

 

The Bills never changed course - Dorsey or Brady - on that depth of target. 

 

One thing we don't have a measure of is Kincaid's 40-time, broad, vertical, 3-cone, 20 yard shuttle or bench because he didn't workout or complete the combine. I mention this because he recently did an interview where he talked about his offseason plan including getting stronger. We've seen him be able to be tackled quickly and take some hard shots. 

 

I think the smooth route runner is correct, the hands is correct, but he doesn't look like a physical mismatch type Tight End, and certainly I don't think he runs as fast as LaPorta's 4.59. 

Right. I may be wrong, but it seems to me Brady doesn't realize what he has in Kincaid--or Shakir. He catches 81% of his targets, Shakir 86%. Those are really high percentages. Why not have both of them deeper routes, keep Knox and Cook in for the check downs? 

[Maine-iac]

Just throwing it out there, would you rather have Knox's 21 season or Kincaid's 23?

 

49 catches 587 yards 9TDs

vs

66 catches 589 yards 2TDs

 

both in 15 games

 

I think Kincaid is having a good season and is a good TE.  That said I like Knox's toughness and what he brought to the offense.  I'm not sure if you are only putting one on the field that we're better off with Kincaid.  I repeat this isn't a knock on Kincaid.

[Einstein's Dog]

11 minutes ago, finn said:

Right. I may be wrong, but it seems to me Brady doesn't realize what he has in Kincaid--or Shakir. He catches 81% of his targets, Shakir 86%. Those are really high percentages. Why not have both of them deeper routes, keep Knox and Cook in for the check downs? 

I thought we were on the cusp of seeing an offensive identity that had Diggs/Kincaid/Shakir/Cook as the passing focal points with some Knox and Davis. I hope we go back to it.

[Drew21PA]

3 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Should we revisit the TE stats thread where a good number of you said he was going to have 1,000 yards receiving and 10 TD's? Nobody drafts a TE high in the first round because they don't provide bang for your buck. It's not a position of value. A good rookie TE season was always going to be roughly what Kincaid has given us which is nothing to write home about compared to a great #2 receiver (Flowers, Nacua).

You got eye rolls but I specifically remember what you are talking about with the lofty expectations

 

hell he would be where I thought at 300-400 if Dawson didn’t get hurt half the season

 

its just how we bring rookies along

[Straight Hucklebuck]

15 minutes ago, finn said:

Right. I may be wrong, but it seems to me Brady doesn't realize what he has in Kincaid--or Shakir. He catches 81% of his targets, Shakir 86%. Those are really high percentages. Why not have both of them deeper routes, keep Knox and Cook in for the check downs? 

Brady (and McDermott letting Brady) have to run 011 personnel.

 

Diggs-Davis-Shakir-Kincaid-Cook on the field at all times and commit to that.

 

We don’t have any time for Murray, Sherfield and Knox. It’s Week 18, we’re done with experimenting with 012, Cook heavy, tunnel and bubbles screens, Allen and the low-positive no running. 

 

A year’s worth of data says Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Kincaid and Cook have to be on the field as much as humanly possible. No more 50% - 60% snap counts. Need all these guys at 80%. 
 

 

Just now, Drew21PA said:

You got eye rolls but I specifically remember what you are talking about with the lofty expectations

 

hell he would be where I thought at 300-400 if Dawson didn’t get hurt half the season

 

its just how we bring rookies along

I picked the 600-yard option.

 

The other ones were 1,000+. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

He’s a rookie who took some time to catch on but he’s been very good late in the season. Also an underrated part of his game is his blocking. He is a very strong blocker which should not go over looked.

I like him, but I would not call him a "very strong blocker" by any stretch. I've seen him be outright embarrassed at times this year. Knox is a much better blocker.

[whorlnut]

Go look at kincaids college highlights. He was a seam wrecker. What have the bills done?  Turned him into a check down machine. It’s criminal. 

[BullBuchanan]

19 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Just throwing it out there, would you rather have Knox's 21 season or Kincaid's 23?

 

49 catches 587 yards 9TDs

vs

66 catches 589 yards 2TDs

 

both in 15 games

 

I think Kincaid is having a good season and is a good TE.  That said I like Knox's toughness and what he brought to the offense.  I'm not sure if you are only putting one on the field that we're better off with Kincaid.  I repeat this isn't a knock on Kincaid.

They're both half of a great TE right now, which is pretty much the best 98% of NFL TEs can hope for. Knox has probably peaked, but I think he could be a dangerous weapon in the right system. Kincaid looks good in the open field hopefully he'll add size, grit and improve overall in his awareness and skillset to reach a higher potential. I don't expect either of them to be "The next Kelce".

[Straight Hucklebuck]

38 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Let's try this.  Here is a table listing the contributions of every WR and TE drafted in the first and second round of 2023 sorted by number of receptions.

 

On your honor, without looking up their stats, please indicate which are WR and which are TE using the number in the first column (eg, TE = #, #, #, #)

Extra credit: indicate which players were selected in the first and which in the second round.

 

Thanks.  If a decent WR will put up better numbers than a TE, should be cinchy.

Laporta -TE-R2

 

Rice-WR-R2

 

Flowers-WR-R1

 

Addison - WR-R1

 

Kincaid - TE- R2

 

Smith - Njigba - WR - R1

 

Dell - WR - R3

 

36-414-2 maybe one of the Packer rookie WRs like Reed or Wicks?

 

Mayer - TE - R2

 

Musgrave - TE - R2

 

Johnston - WR - R1

 

 

[Maine-iac]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

They're both half of a great TE right now, which is pretty much the best 98% of NFL TEs can hope for. Knox has probably peaked, but I think he could be a dangerous weapon in the right system. Kincaid looks good in the open field hopefully he'll add size, grit and improve overall in his awareness and skillset to reach a higher potential. I don't expect either of them to be "The next Kelce".

If the last game was an indication of what they might do with Kincaid going forward I'm excited.  Knox does play with a toughness that I like to see on the field.  I'm glad we have both given injuries over the course of a season.

Edited January 3 by Maine-iac

[bouds]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

Just throwing it out there, would you rather have Knox's 21 season or Kincaid's 23?

 

49 catches 587 yards 9TDs

vs

66 catches 589 yards 2TDs

 

both in 15 games

 

I think Kincaid is having a good season and is a good TE.  That said I like Knox's toughness and what he brought to the offense.  I'm not sure if you are only putting one on the field that we're better off with Kincaid.  I repeat this isn't a knock on Kincaid.

I got a soft spot for Knox.  Yeah, he's had drop issues, but again, I feel like we didn't use him enough in the past, and yet we drafted another TE.

 

This is really the gist of it, you look at what the Bills offense is doing the last 4 seasons, and the TE position was not targeted enough.  It's the same thing with running back, until recently, we barely targeted them in the pass game and yet everyone wanted us to get a pass catching back.  Doesn't matter what tools you have if you keep them in the shed.  I'm sure thing will change going forward in some ways.

[msw2112]

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

I try to have a more open minded "league-wide" view as I have a lot of friends who are not Bills fans. Typically what you get around here is "the Bills are amazing and can do no wrong" and we know that's not true as they have a very good chance of missing the playoffs. The Bills have been a good team the past few years but clearly not as good as people around here would lead you to believe. You would think we have won the past 3 out of 4 Superbowls and Josh has back to back MVP's. I don't think I'm as controversial as it seems, I'm just stating unpopular opinions and facts

 

With all due respect, I disagree.  This board is overly critical of the Bills.  If you spend enough time on this board, you'd think McDermott was the 2nd coming of Hank Bullough.  I have many friends outside of Buffalo who are primarily fans of other teams and they all think the Bills are pretty damn good - most see them more favorably than from what I see on this board.  The Bills are definitely among the best teams in the NFL over the last 3 or 4 years, but they have not been able to get by Kansas City in the playoffs and have also matched up poorly with the Bengals.

 

I agree with you and think that most on this board does too - the Bills have their flaws and they've been exposed this season.  They've seemingly corrected a couple of them recently - a) the ability to run the ball and commit to it; and b) the ability to not only PRESSURE the QB, but to also actually SACK him.  They also closed out 1-score games against inferior opponents the last 2 weeks, something they struggled with earlier in the season (losing to NYJ #1, NE #1, Denver, and almost to NYG and TB).  Allen is still throwing some ill-advised picks, although the one to Diggs last week was not a terrible choice - he was in single coverage and had his man beat and the the ball was simply underthrown.

 

Right now, I think the Bills can play with and beat anyone, but objectively, I think Baltimore and SF are playing better football right now.  Outside of those 2 teams, who is playing better than the Bills right now?  Maybe Cleveland?  Despite playing close games against lesser opponents the last 2 weeks, the Bills took care of business, and they beat KC on the road and dismantled a good Dallas team in Buffalo.

 

Back to the original post, Kinkaid is having a very good rookie season and will continue to get better.  I suspect that if he was in Detroit's offense, his numbers would look a lot like LaPorta's and if LaPorta was in Buffalo, his numbers would look a lot like Kincaid's.  I think Kincaid has a lot more room for growth than LaPorta - LaPorta is peaking right out of the gate, whereas Kincaid will get better as the team figures out how to use him better, and as some here have said, he could use a full offseason in an NFL weight room.

Edited January 3 by msw2112

[Drew21PA]

I was wrong on zay flowers myself - kids pretty awesome.

 

give Kincaid time - 3-4 years from now - dominance 

[MrEpsYtown]

Maybe it’s a weird comp, but I see Aaron Hernandez. Don’t kill me. He was a little bigger and thicker because he was shorter. If you look back at his rookie year he was catching a ton of short option routes, outs and a few seam plays in this E-P offense. Where the Pats took advantage is they used him all over the place, in the slot, in line, in the backfield, full back, h back, wing…it’s what the Bills should be doing with Kincaid. The Pats also made him a big target in the red zone. Both are more slapped up receiver and offensive weapon than true tight ends, but both are pretty darn good blockers. 
 

Hernandez was excellent after the catch, taking a 3 yard hitch and turning it into 15 yards and Kincaid has some of that in his game, he is just a bit more raw. But that’s my comp on the field. I do hope we get a little more creative with his usage. 

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

the dude just set the team record for receptions by anyone in their rookie season

 

This makes it all the more frustrating that until Kincaid we hadn't drafted a single pass catcher on day one or two under this regime. The first pass catcher with high level traits that we've drafted and he immediately breaks a franchise record.

 

Please Brandon, keep drafting pass catchers early. Unless they're a complete bust they will immediately produce with Josh Allen throwing them the ball.

 

Edited January 4 by HappyDays

[78thealltimegreat]

He has 66 catches and around 600 yards which is damn good for a rookie TE. Considering he really didn’t get a majority of the TE work since Knox was the number 1 till he got hurt. 
He needs to get down the field more that’s more play design than anything. A full off season and he’ll be good 

[RyanC883]

I'm beginning to think this is a combination of Bean's inability to get a WR (really awful that Diggs is the only 1st round investment) and the dual OC's inability to scheme with TEs.  

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Even when it would seem that the moment is perfect for it, like vs the Pats.

 

Interesting you say that because in my all-22 watch of the offense Kincaid was a big part of the gameplan. In fact I would call this game his true breakout game even though the numbers don't really show it. He did a little bit of everything. He ran with proper leverage to draw coverage away when called for. He ran a couple quick stop routes for 1st downs. He made himself available to Allen on a scramble drill in a critical 2nd and long situation from inside our own 10. He was seemingly the primary target on 3 deep passes (one completed, one was the INT where he had two steps on his defender, one the protection broke down before Allen could get a pass off but he was the wide the hell open downfield). It's really impressive tape and I think it was Brady's first concerted effort to get him involved downfield. More of that to come, I am sure of it.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

This makes it all the more frustrating that until Kincaid we hadn't drafted a single pass catcher on day one or two under this regime. The first pass catcher with high level traits that we've drafted and he immediately breaks a franchise record.

 

Please Brandon, keep drafting pass catchers early. Unless they're a complete bust they will immediately produce with Josh Allen throwing them the ball.

 

Zay Jones 2017 and for a split second, one shining moment, I thought we had traded up for DK Metcalf instead of Cody Ford until the card was read aloud. In my alternate mindscape that's still what happened 

[Dr.Sack]

Every game should include a deep shot or two to Mr. Kincaid. The dude can do it. Look at his performance against the Patriots. 4 catches 80+ yards. Stud.

[Thurman#1]

 

 

12 hours ago, ngbills said:

This is likely going to ruffle some feathers around here. Every year there are guys stats that overstate their performance. I think that is year it is Kincaid. This is less about his ability and more how he was used most of the season. This past game we finally saw him going downfield where he should be. He is not Cole Beasley who will catch and pass and quickly turn up field for the extra yards squeezing through guys, he is not a monster TE that will catch a pass and run guys over for 5 yards. Yet he was primarily used in that capacity racking up easy catches but limited yards or impact. Below are some comps from the other starting TE's around the league.

 

Yards per rec

Kincaid 8.9

Kittle 15.7 tops amongst TE's

Most starters are in the 10-11 range

 

TD

Kincaid 2

LaPorta is top at 9

Many others have 5-6. Kincaid at the low end with 2

 

1st Downs

Kincaid 26

Kelce 51 tops amongst TE's

Most with similar rec numbers are in the 30's and 40's. Kincaid is low end. 

 

Average Depth of Target

Kincaid 5.8 yards

Pitts is tops at 11.4 yards; Kittle is at 9.4 yards

Most are in the 6-7 range, though some in the 5's with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Yards after Catch

Kincaid 4.3 yards

Kittle and Njoku at 7.4 yards are tops

Many are in the 4-6 range with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Broken Tackles

Kincaid 3

McBride is at 10 and Njoku and LaPorta are at 9

Many other from 2-7 range. Kincaid at low end. 

 

This is not a Kincaid sucks post. This is a they are confused in how to use him post and lets not celebrate his # of rec's stats. He is not a throw it to and watch him run over or around guys like he is being used. He is a tall lanky TE that should be going down the same and catching contested passes. Most NFL caliber players could replicate Kincaid catches or they would be out the league. He can and should do more and I want to see that from him...like we saw some of last week. I am happy he broke some reception records blah blah, but lest see them cut him loose. 

 

 

They, the Bills, aren't confused in how to use him. The folks who year after year expect Bills rookies to be thrown in completely right from the beginning, they are the ones who are confused. This is how Buffalo treats its rookies, they start them slowly and ramp it up around midseason. You can disagree with that, but at this point you ought to expect it. It's what they do. It reduces mistakes and helps the whole system work better.

 

Oh, and as for the comparison to those other TEs, the difference being that Kincaid is a rookie who was started very slowly. LaPorta is the only other rookie there.

 

Compare Kincaid's year to Kittle's first year. Kincaid is destroying him. Kelce's first year he was effectively a red shirt, and not just because he was on the Chiefs. Njoku's rookie year didn't come close. Pitts is an exception, he was used a ton early on, but the Falcons were 7-10 that year, and he was allowed to make mistakes if it happened, as they weren't competitive.

 

They started him very slowly. His first five weeks, he was only thrown extremely short balls, to get him to feel comfortable. They slowly increased his usage and depth of targets all year long, then he was injured in Week 14 - 16, and now he's back. This is how they do it, and if he hadn't been injured lately he'd probably have another hundred yards or so to his credit. And now he's coming into the playoffs and they haven't shown how they'll use him as more of a weapon. There's nothing wrong with this, and a lot right.

 

 

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Interesting you say that because in my all-22 watch of the offense Kincaid was a big part of the gameplan. In fact I would call this game his true breakout game even though the numbers don't really show it. He did a little bit of everything. He ran with proper leverage to draw coverage away when called for. He ran a couple quick stop routes for 1st downs. He made himself available to Allen on a scramble drill in a critical 2nd and long situation from inside our own 10. He was seemingly the primary target on 3 deep passes (one completed, one was the INT where he had two steps on his defender, one the protection broke down before Allen could get a pass off but he was the wide the hell open downfield). It's really impressive tape and I think it was Brady's first concerted effort to get him involved downfield. More of that to come, I am sure of it.

 

 

Yeah, Happy. I haven't looked as carefully after this game as you have, but that's the way it looked to me too. A really nice game, and they keep loosening the leash.

 

 

Edited January 4 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

I try to have a more open minded "league-wide" view as I have a lot of friends who are not Bills fans. Typically what you get around here is "the Bills are amazing and can do no wrong" and we know that's not true as they have a very good chance of missing the playoffs. The Bills have been a good team the past few years but clearly not as good as people around here would lead you to believe. You would think we have won the past 3 out of 4 Superbowls and Josh has back to back MVP's. I don't think I'm as controversial as it seems, I'm just stating unpopular opinions and facts

 

 

Where are all these people treating the Bills as if we "won the past 3 out of 4 Super Bowls"? That would make us the best team in football. Where are all the people saying that or anything like it?

 

Or saying things that would make you think "Josh has back to back MVPs"? 

 

I mean, there are a few nuts on both sides, guys starting MVP threads and so on. But the overall group here I think thought the Bills looked in the middle of the season like a team not a playoff sure thing, and now sees them as a team playing like probably a top five team. Which I think is about right. They've played at that level most of the past three years or so.

 

If you disagree, I guess that's fair enough, make the argument. But top five or so looks very reasonable to me. And that's I think how most people see us.

 

Where are all these people that make you think they believe we look like "we have won the past 3 out of 4 Super Bowls and Josh has back to back MVPs." I think you're mostly imagining them.

Edited January 4 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, Logic said:

I used Zach Ertz as a comparison for Kincaid prior to the season. That comment was met with some resistance, as if it was an insult. Mind you, Ertz has been in the league for a decade and counting, made 3 Pro Bowls, and had a stretch where he went over 800 receiving yards in four straight seasons.

What I meant was that Ertz was a very good tight end in his prime, but was more of a possession, move-the-chains, 3rd down magnet type than a game-breaking Travis Kelce or Rob Gronkowski type. So far, based solely on his rookie season, the Ertz comparison doesn't seem too far off.

Now, with that being said...I will be the first to admit that Kincaid has run-after-catch and deep threat ability that is not being used. When Josh threw him that long ball against New England, I did a double-take, because I'm not used to the Bills deploying him as a deep threat in that manner very often.

Maybe the way the Bills offense utilizes him will change. Maybe he'll improve leaps and bounds from year one to year two, as many players do. So far, though, based on what we've seen, the Ertz comparison wasn't too far off. And for the record, it was never meant to be an insult, and an elite possession receiver that moves the chain is a great thing to have at tight end.

 

Ertz was my comparison too. I think Ertz with a tad more potential for putting up numbers because he has Josh throwing him the ball. But somewhere in that 800 to 1,100 yards a season for 4 or 5 years in his prime is exactly what I would expect. He has slightly exceeded my rookie projection for yards, slightly underperformed my expectation for TDs. But overall he is pretty much right where he should be at this point. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Interesting you say that because in my all-22 watch of the offense Kincaid was a big part of the gameplan. In fact I would call this game his true breakout game even though the numbers don't really show it. He did a little bit of everything. He ran with proper leverage to draw coverage away when called for. He ran a couple quick stop routes for 1st downs. He made himself available to Allen on a scramble drill in a critical 2nd and long situation from inside our own 10. He was seemingly the primary target on 3 deep passes (one completed, one was the INT where he had two steps on his defender, one the protection broke down before Allen could get a pass off but he was the wide the hell open downfield). It's really impressive tape and I think it was Brady's first concerted effort to get him involved downfield. More of that to come, I am sure of it.

That's a fair critique. I hadn't looked at the 22, and was doing off of the end result which was just the big bomb. 

 

I guess I just have to admit...Josh just had a bad game. I just hope that this was this year's version of the Atlanta Falcons game where Josh was just bad...and then turned it on for one of the best runs we've ever seen him on.

[KDIGGZ]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Where are all these people treating the Bills as if we "won the past 3 out of 4 Super Bowls"? That would make us the best team in football. Where are all the people saying that or anything like it?

 

Or saying things that would make you think "Josh has back to back MVPs"? 

 

I mean, there are a few nuts on both sides, guys starting MVP threads and so on. But the overall group here I think thought the Bills looked in the middle of the season like a team not a playoff sure thing, and now sees them as a team playing like probably a top five team. Which I think is about right. They've played at that level most of the past three years or so.

 

If you disagree, I guess that's fair enough, make the argument. But top five or so looks very reasonable to me. And that's I think how most people see us.

 

Where are all these people that make you think they believe we look like "we have won the past 3 out of 4 Super Bowls and Josh has back to back MVPs." I think you're mostly imagining them.

It's just what you would expect from a team fan forum so it's par for the course and I wouldn't expect anything less. Any time you say anything against the team you get a lot of thumbs down and people upset. The most blatant tends to be Josh is the best QB in the NFL and a hall of famer and before every season he is the favorite to win MVP. Clearly Patrick Mahomes is the best and possibly top 5 best ever and is on another level. I don't think that's too crazy to say because it's true but people go nuts here. We are lucky to have a good QB but he's too inconsistent to be considered the best at anything. He has good days and bad days, not a lot in between.

 

Before the season I picked the Bills to go 10-7 with a win and in scenario in the final game. My reason being was that the team was sliding towards the end of last year and they did nothing over the offseason to add a #2 WR which would just let teams double Diggs. We should find that post because not only was it likely but it was 100% accurate and people still went nuts about how the Bills were a Superbowl team and would easily win the AFC East (I had them #2 and maybe even #3 in the East). The responses were delusional but I wouldn't expect anything less from a fan forum. By saying the Bills are an above average team that could miss the playoffs you would have thought I kicked their dog but now that we are here maybe my takes aren't as controversial as they seem.

 

People want to stay in their little cocoon and not face reality. You see that everywhere online these days. I won't say anything "political" but if you say certain things deemed controversial yet also totally factual, they ban you from certain social media sites now. Some facts are maybe not pleasant to say but when people say something that's not factual and you correct them then somehow you are the bad guy. Perhaps a lot of people just keep it to themselves or go with the flow because it's not worth the risk or the argument. I guess I don't mind saying what I'm thinking perhaps more than most. Maybe that makes me the bad guy.

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I like him, but I would not call him a "very strong blocker" by any stretch. I've seen him be outright embarrassed at times this year. Knox is a much better blocker.

 

 

Yes, agreed. Maybe a pretty good blocker at this point, but has come a long way. Willing. Sticks his head in and works to make a difference.

 

And TEs are much harder to correctly value than WRs (who are tough on their own. How valuable is a WR who gets open but isn't thrown to by the QB?) because a TE can be the difference between failure and success on a play where they don't touch the ball. They can make a block inside that blows open or keeps open the hole on a run play. WRs on run plays are mostly too far out of the play to make much of a difference except on edge rushes. 

 

Our good TE blocking has been part of the reason that we've been running more effectively this year. Far from the only reason, but absolutely they've made a real difference on many plays. 

 

I know you weren't saying this, Bull, but some here are comparing yardage as if that's all you have to look at. TEs are multi-faceted and carry a lot more value in blocking on inside run plays. Fans have been clamoring for a more effective inside rush for years now and when we finally get it we pretend Knox and Kincaid aren't making a difference there.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

It's just what you would expect from a team fan forum so it's par for the course and I wouldn't expect anything less. Any time you say anything against the team you get a lot of thumbs down and people upset. The most blatant tends to be Josh is the best QB in the NFL and a hall of famer and before every season he is the favorite to win MVP. Clearly Patrick Mahomes is the best and possibly top 5 best ever and is on another level. I don't think that's too crazy to say because it's true but people go nuts here. We are lucky to have a good QB but he's too inconsistent to be considered the best at anything. He has good days and bad days, not a lot in between.

 

Before the season I picked the Bills to go 10-7 with a win and in scenario in the final game. My reason being was that the team was sliding towards the end of last year and they did nothing over the offseason to add a #2 WR which would just let teams double Diggs. We should find that post because not only was it likely but it was 100% accurate and people still went nuts about how the Bills were a Superbowl team and would easily win the AFC East (I had them #2 and maybe even #3 in the East). The responses were delusional but I wouldn't expect anything less from a fan forum. By saying the Bills are an above average team that could miss the playoffs you would have thought I kicked their dog but now that we are here maybe my takes aren't as controversial as they seem.

 

People want to stay in their little cocoon and not face reality. You see that everywhere online these days. I won't say anything "political" but if you say certain things deemed controversial yet also totally factual, they ban you from certain social media sites now. Some facts are maybe not pleasant to say but when people say something that's not factual and you correct them then somehow you are the bad guy. Perhaps a lot of people just keep it to themselves or go with the flow because it's not worth the risk or the argument. I guess I don't mind saying what I'm thinking perhaps more than most. Maybe that makes me the bad guy.

 

Again, I think what you're demonstrating is oversensitivity.

 

Yes we have a few guys who are simply nuts about Josh and have left any claim to neutrality and sometimes even rationality behind. There's one guy in particular, but really a group of ten or so. And fair enough, they're fruitcakes.

But Josh really is very very likely to be a Hall of Famer. We're wildly lucky to have him and he's a top five guy and it's not unreasonable to say a top two guy ... though not consistent the way we'd all like to see. But that's what most of us are saying. The constant best in football talk comes from a small group of folks, several of whom write hours a day, nutty and excessive.

 

I don't think most on here think of him as an MVP favorite any particular year, though many or most maybe think he's got a solid chance of winning one or two in his career. Which IMO is reasonable.

 

And yeah, people predicted a game or two more than you did for the Bills, but I'd argue that if DaQuan, Milano and Tre hadn't been injured we might easily have managed that. not to mention that the slide near the end of the year last year sure liked like it might be as much an emotional reaction to one of the most bizarre, wearing and emotionally

 

And you appear to have been very wrong when you predicted that they'd be 2 or #3 in the East this year. They could end up at #1. Your guess appears to have been the delusion, too negative, though if they lose this week I'll have to look back and 

 

Also, we've got a #2. Gabe Davis. Should we try to upgrade? Sure, at that position and most, really, but he's a #2, though probably one who's slightly below average. Yeah, it'd be nice to upgrade, but not only did they have him, but they did try to add a #2 receiver, or more specifically a guy who can eventually fill that role in Kincaid, and they had to use a 1st to pick him up and he appears to be getting better and better as he goes.

 

We didn't look like the best team in football before the season, and few thought so beyond the usual suspect and the over-ambition most fanbases show before the season. We looked, most of us thought, like probably a top five team. That looked like an opium dream in the middle of the season for a while, bnd guess what? That now looks like we were right on target.

 

You're not a bad guy. Just pessimistic. Nothing wrong with that.

 

But if you're going to take on the mantle of the guy who is factual then don't go with stuff saying stuff like, "Typically what you get around here is 'the Bills are amazing and can do no wrong...' You we have won the past 3 out of 4 Superbowls and Josh has back to back MVP's.' "

 

Let's be honest, that's counter-factual. Opinions that wild are anything but typical here, though again, there are few nuts and fruitcakes anywhere you look.

 

 

Edited January 4 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

20 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Yeah the dump off stuff with Kincaid started right away against the Jets and continued all the way until last week. 

 

The Bills never changed course - Dorsey or Brady - on that depth of target. 

 

One thing we don't have a measure of is Kincaid's 40-time, broad, vertical, 3-cone, 20 yard shuttle or bench because he didn't workout or complete the combine. I mention this because he recently did an interview where he talked about his offseason plan including getting stronger. We've seen him be able to be tackled quickly and take some hard shots. 

 

I think the smooth route runner is correct, the hands is correct, but he doesn't look like a physical mismatch type Tight End, and certainly I don't think he runs as fast as LaPorta's 4.59. 

 

 

IMO they're absolutely changing depth of target.

 

Here's Week 17's charts of his routes:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/dalton-kincaid/KIN069130/season

 

Three of his seven targets were over 30 yards downfield.

 

He's run a lot of 10 - 15 yard routes after about Week 6. Not many longer, but there have been a few.

 

Edited January 4 by Thurman#1

[KDIGGZ]

47 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Again, I think what you're demonstrating is oversensitivity.

 

Yes we have a few guys who are simply nuts about Josh and have left any claim to neutrality and sometimes even rationality behind. There's one guy in particular, but really a group of ten or so. And fair enough, they're fruitcakes.

But Josh really is very very likely to be a Hall of Famer. We're wildly lucky to have him and he's a top five guy and it's not unreasonable to say a top two guy ... though not consistent the way we'd all like to see. But that's what most of us are saying. The constant best in football talk comes from a small group of folks, several of whom write hours a day, nutty and excessive.

 

I don't think most on here think of him as an MVP favorite any particular year, though many or most maybe think he's got a solid chance of winning one or two in his career. Which IMO is reasonable.

 

And yeah, people predicted a game or two more than you did for the Bills, but I'd argue that if DaQuan, Milano and Tre hadn't been injured we might easily have managed that. not to mention that the slide near the end of the year last year sure liked like it might be as much an emotional reaction to one of the most bizarre, wearing and emotionally

 

And you appear to have been very wrong when you predicted that they'd be 2 or #3 in the East this year. They could end up at #1. Your guess appears to have been the delusion, too negative, though if they lose this week I'll have to look back and 

 

Also, we've got a #2. Gabe Davis. Should we try to upgrade? Sure, at that position and most, really, but he's a #2, though probably one who's slightly below average. Yeah, it'd be nice to upgrade, but not only did they have him, but they did try to add a #2 receiver, or more specifically a guy who can eventually fill that role in Kincaid, and they had to use a 1st to pick him up and he appears to be getting better and better as he goes.

 

We didn't look like the best team in football before the season, and few thought so beyond the usual suspect and the over-ambition most fanbases show before the season. We looked, most of us thought, like probably a top five team. That looked like an opium dream in the middle of the season for a while, bnd guess what? That now looks like we were right on target.

 

You're not a bad guy. Just pessimistic. Nothing wrong with that.

 

But if you're going to take on the mantle of the guy who is factual then don't go with stuff saying stuff like, "Typically what you get around here is 'the Bills are amazing and can do no wrong...' You we have won the past 3 out of 4 Superbowls and Josh has back to back MVP's.' "

 

Let's be honest, that's counter-factual. Opinions that wild are anything but typical here, though again, there are few nuts and fruitcakes anywhere you look.

 

It's only pessimistic if you don't like or agree with the response. I was being optimistic in saying the Bills would possibly be a playoff team with a win and in scenario and look here we are with a chance to be. If you thought the Bills were a better team you might think that's being pessimistic. But if you thought the Bills were a joke that can't ever win the big games like some of my friends you would think that's being overly optimistic. It's all in your perception