Kincaid Comparisons

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, KDIGGZ said:

I didn't say I'm arguing for the sake of arguing. I skip over the topics I agree with and I respond to those I disagree with. If that upsets you then you can mute me. I personally want to see other points of view. If everyone said "I love the Bills" and there was no discussion I would probably go to another team's board, which I've done in the past 

 

Im not upset and don't at all feel compelled to mute you, everyone is entitled to their own view points.  I was just responding to what you wrote.  

 

You said and I quote :  "Also as for being negative, if everyone was negative I would likely be the most positive. I often take the opposing point of few in my responses. I'm not going to post in a thread and say "I agree." What's the point?"

 

 

Im not accusing you of this, but that is what you said, so not sure how else that is supposed to be taken.  You said if everyone was negative, you would then be positive.  You didn't say you take the view point of what you believe...you said you take the "opposing" point of view to what everyone else thinks.  I mean isn't that basically the definition of arguing for the sake of arguing?  

 

Truthfully, I don't even think you do this, but that is just what you said.  I think its more you just have a more negative bias towards the Bills and your interest gravitates towards that.

[Logic]

I used Zach Ertz as a comparison for Kincaid prior to the season. That comment was met with some resistance, as if it was an insult. Mind you, Ertz has been in the league for a decade and counting, made 3 Pro Bowls, and had a stretch where he went over 800 receiving yards in four straight seasons.

What I meant was that Ertz was a very good tight end in his prime, but was more of a possession, move-the-chains, 3rd down magnet type than a game-breaking Travis Kelce or Rob Gronkowski type. So far, based solely on his rookie season, the Ertz comparison doesn't seem too far off.

Now, with that being said...I will be the first to admit that Kincaid has run-after-catch and deep threat ability that is not being used. When Josh threw him that long ball against New England, I did a double-take, because I'm not used to the Bills deploying him as a deep threat in that manner very often.

Maybe the way the Bills offense utilizes him will change. Maybe he'll improve leaps and bounds from year one to year two, as many players do. So far, though, based on what we've seen, the Ertz comparison wasn't too far off. And for the record, it was never meant to be an insult, and an elite possession receiver that moves the chain is a great thing to have at tight end.

Edited January 3 by Logic

[2003Contenders]

TEs historically have a pretty big learning curve because of the variety of things they are asked to do both in terms of protections as well as the passing game. It is a bit unfair to compare Kincaid to LaPorta given that LaPorta has had an out-of-this-world rookie season. All things considered, Kincaid has had a fine rookie season with 66 receptions for 589 yards.

 

His 66 receptions rank 8th in the league for TEs.  He caught 81.48% of his targets, which ranks ahead of all the big-time TEs such as Engram(80%), McBride (78%), Likely (77.78%), Kelce (76.86%), Hockenson (74.8%), Andrews (73.77%), Goedert (73.42%), Kittle (72.22%), and LaPorta (71.68%). So he is doing a good job catching the ball. It's not his fault that the goons that design the plays for the Bills are not placing him in a position to be more productive (just 2 TDs).

[JohnNord]

2 hours ago, ngbills said:

This is likely going to ruffle some feathers around here. Every year there are guys stats that overstate their performance. I think that is year it is Kincaid. This is less about his ability and more how he was used most of the season. This past game we finally saw him going downfield where he should be. He is not Cole Beasley who will catch and pass and quickly turn up field for the extra yards squeezing through guys, he is not a monster TE that will catch a pass and run guys over for 5 yards. Yet he was primarily used in that capacity racking up easy catches but limited yards or impact. Below are some comps from the other starting TE's around the league.

 

Yards per rec

Kincaid 8.9

Kittle 15.7 tops amongst TE's

Most starters are in the 10-11 range

 

TD

Kincaid 2

LaPorta is top at 9

Many others have 5-6. Kincaid at the low end with 2

 

1st Downs

Kincaid 26

Kelce 51 tops amongst TE's

Most with similar rec numbers are in the 30's and 40's. Kincaid is low end. 

 

Average Depth of Target

Kincaid 5.8 yards

Pitts is tops at 11.4 yards; Kittle is at 9.4 yards

Most are in the 6-7 range, though some in the 5's with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Yards after Catch

Kincaid 4.3 yards

Kittle and Njoku at 7.4 yards are tops

Many are in the 4-6 range with Kincaid at the low end. 

 

Broken Tackles

Kincaid 3

McBride is at 10 and Njoku and LaPorta are at 9

Many other from 2-7 range. Kincaid at low end. 

 

This is not a Kincaid sucks post. This is a they are confused in how to use him post and lets not celebrate his # of rec's stats. He is not a throw it to and watch him run over or around guys like he is being used. He is a tall lanky TE that should be going down the same and catching contested passes. Most NFL caliber players could replicate Kincaid catches or they would be out the league. He can and should do more and I want to see that from him...like we saw some of last week. I am happy he broke some reception records blah blah, but lest see them cut him loose. 

I think there’s a lot of truth to this.  Kincaid has tremendous potential but needs to be used correctly.  LaPorta is used much better in Detroit’s offense but if you swapped both players I don’t think LaPorta puts up the numbers Kincaid did in Buffalo.  

It seems like Kincaid was being used in the “safety valve” role that Cole Beasley used to have which would explain his low YPC.
 

I never got the impression that Dorsey and the offense were great running plays out 12 personnel and I think that was part of the problem.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

2 hours ago, mrags said:

Not his fault he hasn’t been used properly. 

That has been my single biggest gripe with Joe Brady. For all of the faults that (rightfully) had Dorsey exit, he had finally started to use Kincaid as part of the gameplan and Brady...really hasn't. Even when it would seem that the moment is perfect for it, like vs the Pats.

 

The Dolphins are beat up on their inside LBs and Ramsey is going to be shadowing Diggs. This is the perfect time to use motion to move the Dolphins CBs and then use Kincaid to exploit mismatches. 

 

Reallllly hope we see something like that.

[KDIGGZ]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im not upset and don't at all feel compelled to mute you, everyone is entitled to their own view points.  I was just responding to what you wrote.  

 

You said and I quote :  "Also as for being negative, if everyone was negative I would likely be the most positive. I often take the opposing point of few in my responses. I'm not going to post in a thread and say "I agree." What's the point?"

 

 

Im not accusing you of this, but that is what you said, so not sure how else that is supposed to be taken.  You said if everyone was negative, you would then be positive.  You didn't say you take the view point of what you believe...you said you take the "opposing" point of view to what everyone else thinks.  I mean isn't that basically the definition of arguing for the sake of arguing?  

 

Truthfully, I don't even think you do this, but that is just what you said.  I think its more you just have a more negative bias towards the Bills and your interest gravitates towards that.

I try to have a more open minded "league-wide" view as I have a lot of friends who are not Bills fans. Typically what you get around here is "the Bills are amazing and can do no wrong" and we know that's not true as they have a very good chance of missing the playoffs. The Bills have been a good team the past few years but clearly not as good as people around here would lead you to believe. You would think we have won the past 3 out of 4 Superbowls and Josh has back to back MVP's. I don't think I'm as controversial as it seems, I'm just stating unpopular opinions and facts

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

up until a couple months ago, Kincaid's average air yards per target were 3.3 yards, amongst the lowest in the league. I got downvoted the most of any post ive ever written for stating that fact. Maybe people thought i was speaking down on him. But its all about how we're using him thats the issue.

Throws 3 yards down the field should be high percentage completions. The reasons why should be obvious.

Having these plays in our offense are good to have, it gets Josh in a rhythm, 3 yards becomes 5 & 6 etc. But the numbers show Kincaid needs to get the ball more & deeper down the field.

As an aside: to me this issue is similar imho to how we were using Cook. The numbers showed he needed more touches & when he did he proved why with good results. Kincaid did the same thing when he broke out with production we havent seen here maybe ever. Perhaps the injury had the greatest affect on him, but now that he's healthy the air yards need to be more around 10 yards than 3. If even only just to open up more of the underneath stuff.

 

Yeah the dump off stuff with Kincaid started right away against the Jets and continued all the way until last week. 

 

The Bills never changed course - Dorsey or Brady - on that depth of target. 

 

One thing we don't have a measure of is Kincaid's 40-time, broad, vertical, 3-cone, 20 yard shuttle or bench because he didn't workout or complete the combine. I mention this because he recently did an interview where he talked about his offseason plan including getting stronger. We've seen him be able to be tackled quickly and take some hard shots. 

 

I think the smooth route runner is correct, the hands is correct, but he doesn't look like a physical mismatch type Tight End, and certainly I don't think he runs as fast as LaPorta's 4.59. 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Yep he's a very good TE. But does a very good TE's output garner a 1st round draft pick? My argument back then was even a decent WR was probably going to put up better numbers. We really needed a #2 WR. Could have had Rashee Rice among others

 

Let's try this.  Here is a table listing the contributions of every WR and TE drafted in the first and second round of 2023 sorted by number of receptions.

 

On your honor, without looking up their stats, please indicate which are WR and which are TE using the number in the first column (eg, TE = #, #, #, #)

Extra credit: indicate which players were selected in the first and which in the second round.

 

Thanks.  If a decent WR will put up better numbers than a TE, should be cinchy.

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, KDIGGZ said:

I try to have a more open minded "league-wide" view as I have a lot of friends who are not Bills fans. Typically what you get around here is "the Bills are amazing and can do no wrong" and we know that's not true as they have a very good chance of missing the playoffs. The Bills have been a good team the past few years but clearly not as good as people around here would lead you to believe. You would think we have won the past 3 out of 4 Superbowls and Josh has back to back MVP's. I don't think I'm as controversial as it seems, I'm just stating unpopular opinions and facts

 

I don't actually disagree with your assessment in this reply that the Bills have been a good, but not consistently great, team the past few years.  They have consistently found ways to beat themselves, so its a fair comment you are making here.  And you are not wrong about how some go to that positive extreme, but I just don't think the answer to that is to go the negative extreme either.  All you get is two sides of extremes where no one is right.  I try and stay realistic and as unbiased as one can when a fan of a team.  

 

But honestly, I feel like you have been quite reasonable in our dialogue here and its been an interesting convo so kudos 

 

Either way, all good here from me.  

[John from Riverside]

I could’ve swore that I saw a thread whenever we drafted him talking about how many receptions he was going to have as a rookie because rookie tight ends don’t get used that much
 

The guy has like 70 receptions

[shane nelson]

Thanks for putting this together, I think only fair to match his status to Kelce and Kittle rookie seasons.  After all, he now owns the Bills rookie record for receptions.  Really having a solid season considering he did not get a lot of looks for the first halfs.   

[finn]

26 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Yeah the dump off stuff with Kincaid started right away against the Jets and continued all the way until last week. 

 

The Bills never changed course - Dorsey or Brady - on that depth of target. 

 

One thing we don't have a measure of is Kincaid's 40-time, broad, vertical, 3-cone, 20 yard shuttle or bench because he didn't workout or complete the combine. I mention this because he recently did an interview where he talked about his offseason plan including getting stronger. We've seen him be able to be tackled quickly and take some hard shots. 

 

I think the smooth route runner is correct, the hands is correct, but he doesn't look like a physical mismatch type Tight End, and certainly I don't think he runs as fast as LaPorta's 4.59. 

Right. I may be wrong, but it seems to me Brady doesn't realize what he has in Kincaid--or Shakir. He catches 81% of his targets, Shakir 86%. Those are really high percentages. Why not have both of them deeper routes, keep Knox and Cook in for the check downs? 

[Maine-iac]

Just throwing it out there, would you rather have Knox's 21 season or Kincaid's 23?

 

49 catches 587 yards 9TDs

vs

66 catches 589 yards 2TDs

 

both in 15 games

 

I think Kincaid is having a good season and is a good TE.  That said I like Knox's toughness and what he brought to the offense.  I'm not sure if you are only putting one on the field that we're better off with Kincaid.  I repeat this isn't a knock on Kincaid.

[Einstein's Dog]

11 minutes ago, finn said:

Right. I may be wrong, but it seems to me Brady doesn't realize what he has in Kincaid--or Shakir. He catches 81% of his targets, Shakir 86%. Those are really high percentages. Why not have both of them deeper routes, keep Knox and Cook in for the check downs? 

I thought we were on the cusp of seeing an offensive identity that had Diggs/Kincaid/Shakir/Cook as the passing focal points with some Knox and Davis. I hope we go back to it.

[Drew21PA]

3 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Should we revisit the TE stats thread where a good number of you said he was going to have 1,000 yards receiving and 10 TD's? Nobody drafts a TE high in the first round because they don't provide bang for your buck. It's not a position of value. A good rookie TE season was always going to be roughly what Kincaid has given us which is nothing to write home about compared to a great #2 receiver (Flowers, Nacua).

You got eye rolls but I specifically remember what you are talking about with the lofty expectations

 

hell he would be where I thought at 300-400 if Dawson didn’t get hurt half the season

 

its just how we bring rookies along

[Straight Hucklebuck]

15 minutes ago, finn said:

Right. I may be wrong, but it seems to me Brady doesn't realize what he has in Kincaid--or Shakir. He catches 81% of his targets, Shakir 86%. Those are really high percentages. Why not have both of them deeper routes, keep Knox and Cook in for the check downs? 

Brady (and McDermott letting Brady) have to run 011 personnel.

 

Diggs-Davis-Shakir-Kincaid-Cook on the field at all times and commit to that.

 

We don’t have any time for Murray, Sherfield and Knox. It’s Week 18, we’re done with experimenting with 012, Cook heavy, tunnel and bubbles screens, Allen and the low-positive no running. 

 

A year’s worth of data says Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Kincaid and Cook have to be on the field as much as humanly possible. No more 50% - 60% snap counts. Need all these guys at 80%. 
 

 

Just now, Drew21PA said:

You got eye rolls but I specifically remember what you are talking about with the lofty expectations

 

hell he would be where I thought at 300-400 if Dawson didn’t get hurt half the season

 

its just how we bring rookies along

I picked the 600-yard option.

 

The other ones were 1,000+. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

He’s a rookie who took some time to catch on but he’s been very good late in the season. Also an underrated part of his game is his blocking. He is a very strong blocker which should not go over looked.

I like him, but I would not call him a "very strong blocker" by any stretch. I've seen him be outright embarrassed at times this year. Knox is a much better blocker.

[whorlnut]

Go look at kincaids college highlights. He was a seam wrecker. What have the bills done?  Turned him into a check down machine. It’s criminal. 

[BullBuchanan]

19 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Just throwing it out there, would you rather have Knox's 21 season or Kincaid's 23?

 

49 catches 587 yards 9TDs

vs

66 catches 589 yards 2TDs

 

both in 15 games

 

I think Kincaid is having a good season and is a good TE.  That said I like Knox's toughness and what he brought to the offense.  I'm not sure if you are only putting one on the field that we're better off with Kincaid.  I repeat this isn't a knock on Kincaid.

They're both half of a great TE right now, which is pretty much the best 98% of NFL TEs can hope for. Knox has probably peaked, but I think he could be a dangerous weapon in the right system. Kincaid looks good in the open field hopefully he'll add size, grit and improve overall in his awareness and skillset to reach a higher potential. I don't expect either of them to be "The next Kelce".

[Straight Hucklebuck]

38 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Let's try this.  Here is a table listing the contributions of every WR and TE drafted in the first and second round of 2023 sorted by number of receptions.

 

On your honor, without looking up their stats, please indicate which are WR and which are TE using the number in the first column (eg, TE = #, #, #, #)

Extra credit: indicate which players were selected in the first and which in the second round.

 

Thanks.  If a decent WR will put up better numbers than a TE, should be cinchy.

Laporta -TE-R2

 

Rice-WR-R2

 

Flowers-WR-R1

 

Addison - WR-R1

 

Kincaid - TE- R2

 

Smith - Njigba - WR - R1

 

Dell - WR - R3

 

36-414-2 maybe one of the Packer rookie WRs like Reed or Wicks?

 

Mayer - TE - R2

 

Musgrave - TE - R2

 

Johnston - WR - R1