The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[TheWeatherMan]

3 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Sadly I can’t come up with a scenario where we get in without beating Miami.

Bills win next 2, Miami loses next 2 and we tie Miami…that’s one scenario 

[strive_for_five_guy]

3 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Sadly I can’t come up with a scenario where we get in without beating Miami.

That’s not what I’m saying though.  I’m saying Miami wins their next two and hence the division, and we win out.  In that scenario, it’s almost certain we still get in as a wild card.

[BigAl2526]

The bottom line is if Buffalo wins out, there are a lot more things that have to align for them not to make the playoffs than outcomes that are needed for the Bills to make the playoffs.  I'm not going to worry about it.  Just take care of business, Buffalo.

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Any one of the Dolphins, Bengals, Jags, or Texans loss this week and the Bills control their own destiny by winning out. It's that simple this week.

 

Someone earlier said Browns but I don't think that is true.  Browns need to drop 2 games IIRC.

 

The Browns losing works because they still play the Bengals in week 18. Somebody has to lose that game to get to 7 losses. So in that scenario one of Browns/Bengals is guaranteed to be at 7 losses, one of Colts/Texans is guaranteed to be at 7 losses because they also still play each other, and that leaves us a wildcard spot at 11-6 no matter what else happens.

[Eastport bills]

1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

That’s not what I’m saying though.  I’m saying Miami wins their next two and hence the division, and we win out.  In that scenario, it’s almost certain we still get in as a wild card.

After watching them struggle against a winning team , they’re losing one of the next two, probably both.

[transient]

8 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

The Dolphins have a scenario where they don't make it as well.  That would make my year.  I hate Dolphin fans with a passion.

 

Actually, until the Dolphins beat a playoff caliber team, this scenario is more probable than the one with the Bills winning out and missing the playoffs.

[Nephilim17]

3 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I'm not sure how reliable the Oxford "Learners" Dictionary is because it is targeted toward those just learning English (and therefore not a complete reference), but I generally rely on the Oxford English Dictionary which includes all 11 definitions including

 

 

In no one's dictionary is a 1% chance "somewhat probable." Write more accurate headlines and people won't question your writing skills.

[Malazan]

Another thread that shows the need for my "You must have 1,000 posts before being allowed to post." plan.

[NyQuil]

30 minutes ago, transient said:

Actually, until the Dolphins beat a playoff caliber team, this scenario is more probable than the one with the Bills winning out and missing the playoffs.

 

Its been 15 months. Last time was that heatstroke game down in Miami last year where they beat us.

[hondo in seattle]

18 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

 

 

 

The Fins, Boys, and Ravens are all good teams.  So let's say the Dolphins have a 50-50 chance in each game.  That gives them just a 25% chance of winning both.  They also have a 25% chance of losing both and a 50% chance of winning one and losing the other.  

 

So if the Bills win out, we likely win the AFCE.

 

 

[ImpactCorey]

34 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

In no one's dictionary is a 1% chance "somewhat probable." Write more accurate headlines and people won't question your writing skills.

Ok, let me lay it out super clear for you.  There is no official percentage applied to the word.   One of its definitions simply means there is reason to believe something could happen.  You may have heard the term "probable cause"?  Guess what?  That does not mean someone is calculating whether or not there is a 51% chance someone is guilty of a crime.  No, it means there is enough of a reasonable concern to look into them.  The word reasonable is very important here.

 

Now on to this thread.  When I saw that there was a less than 1% chance the Bills win out and miss the playoffs I figured it was because there was no REASON to believe it was actually going to happen.  I assumed it meant there would have to be a bunch of tied games or the Panthers beating a contender.  I was surprised to find that this wasn't the case.  On the contrary, there was a scenario that COULD actually happen.  Yes, it is unlikely because a lot of things have to happen, but there was a reason to believe it could happen.   This was my application of the word.

 

I have no problem with people saying they do not think it is probable because that's an opinion.  The personal attacks just seem unnecessary for a hypothetical scenario that I thought I would share.

 

The fact that people are all up in arms about this is funny to me.  Relax and critique the scenario rather than the word.  Is your life really that boring that you need to lash out?

Edited December 22, 2023 by ImpactCorey

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

25 minutes ago, NyQuil said:

 

Its been 15 months. Last time was that heatstroke game down in Miami last year where they beat us.

I’d argue the bills and ravens games they won last year were not really playoff caliber teams at the time.  Both had an absurd amount of injuries.  We were missing like 13 starters by halftime that game lol it was absurd.  That was like a preseason lineup and we still outgained them by 300 yards

Edited December 22, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[ImpactCorey]

12 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

The Fins, Boys, and Ravens are all good teams.  So let's say the Dolphins have a 50-50 chance in each game.  That gives them just a 25% chance of winning both.  They also have a 25% chance of losing both and a 50% chance of winning one and losing the other.  

 

So if the Bills win out, we likely win the AFCE.

 

 

I totally agree with this take.  Just need the Fins to drop one of the next two games!

[Punching Bag]

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

“Likely to happen,” is the only definition. 
 

Even “somewhat likely to happen,” doesn’t fit here. 
 

Infact, “improbable” would be the most correct word to use - and that is the antonym of the word you chose, Chachi. 

 

As the great guru @Gugny (try not imagine with just a loin cloth size of a banana peel said:

 

4 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

What brand of Ranch?

 

4 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

Blasphemy!!!

 

I understand.  You want no brand involved and just want generic.

[ImpactCorey]

6 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

I understand.  You want no brand involved and just want generic.

 

I've been called a lot of things, but I WILL not be labeled a ranch user!  🤣

[Punching Bag]

5 hours ago, 26TrapDraw said:

We should feel entitled. With Allen as our QB we have the right. You know what else gives us the right to be entitled?

Sucking ass for 17 seasons straight.

 

Do you think Josh would have chosen #18 if it had been for 18 seconds?

[ImpactCorey]

1 hour ago, Malazan said:

Another thread that shows the need for my "You must have 1,000 posts before being allowed to post." plan.

How exactly would one post if they couldn't post until they had 1000 posts?  🤔

[Sherlock Holmes]

21 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

 

I've been called a lot of things, but I WILL not be labeled a ranch user!  🤣

I wanted to hurl an insult that would really dig deep

Edited December 23, 2023 by Sherlock Holmes

[Malazan]

23 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

How exactly would one post if they couldn't post until they had 1000 posts?  🤔

 

Think hard and I think you'll get it.

[ImpactCorey]

2 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

Think hard and I think you'll get it.

I get that your own policy would restrict yourself from posting as well.  Maybe you meant creating topics vs posting within topics?  Would have been funnier if you didn't screw it up.

[JohnNord]

20 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

Somewhat probably = 0.01% chance.

[HOUSE]

Season is over, thanks 

[QLBillsFan]

5 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

And I'm impressed by how nasty people can get by the use of a single word.  You'd think I insulted people's mothers or something.

I don’t see any nasty. Your premise is based on a word that almost to a person is seen as not correct to your scenario. It’s evident you care and put some time into it so cheers 🍻. But it’s implausible. Using that word it’s a valid scenario. 

[ImpactCorey]

3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

I don’t see any nasty. Your premise is based on a word that almost to a person is seen as not correct to your scenario. It’s evident you care and put some time into it so cheers 🍻. But it’s implausible. Using that word it’s a valid scenario. 

Thanks for your feedback.  Perhaps you missed the posts calling me names or using various insults about the validity of the topic's existence in the first place.  Fortunately it's just a few bad actors.  Most people have been awesome, however!

Edited December 23, 2023 by ImpactCorey

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

21 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

 

So which tie breaker is it that knocks the Bills out when all 4 are tied at 11-6

[BufBills83]

So I actually figured out the scenario that leaves the Bills out of the playoffs at 11-6.

 

- Miami beats Dallas and Baltimore, and loses to Buffalo.  Miami wins division at 12-5.

- Baltimore wins enough games to win division, but loses to Miami.

- Jacksonville wins division by winning out and going 11-6.

- KC loses to Cincy but wins their other 2 games, finish 11-6 and win division.

 

Those are the division winners.  Now for the wildcard teams.

 

- Cleveland beats Houston and Jets but lose to Cincy.  Finish 11-6 and the 5 seed.

- Cincy wins out.  This makes them 11-6 and the 6 seed since they beat Indy.

- Indy wins out, beating Atl, LV and Hou.  Finish 11-6 and the 7 seed.

- Houston loses to Cleveland and loses to Indy.  This leaves Houston out of the playoffs at 9-8, but gives Cleveland and Indy needed wins to stay above us.

 

So if Buffalo wins out and goes 11-6, if all these other things happen, we are left out as we lose out on tiebreakers.  However, for this to happen, all of the remaining games have to have these exact results:

 

Week 16:  Jax beats Tampa, Cleveland beats Hou, Cincy beats Pitt, Indy beats Atlanta, Miami beats Dallas

Week 17:  Jax beats Carolina, Cleveland beats Jets, Cincy beats KC, Indy beats LV, Miami beats Baltimore

Week 18:  Jax beats Tennesee, Cincy beats Cleveland, Indy beats Houston

 

So in total there are 13 games from week 16 to week 18 where if one of the results above go the other way, we control our own destiny.  So we need 1 good outcome out of 13 games.  Its highly improbable that all the games go this exact way.  I can see Tampa beating Jax this week, Dallas beating Miami, maybe even Pitt winning.  I can def see KC beating Cincy in week 17.  There are a lot of possibilities for us to control our destiny.

[Malazan]

3 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I get that your own policy would restrict yourself from posting as well.  Maybe you meant creating topics vs posting within topics?  Would have been funnier if you didn't screw it up.

 

Maybe putting it into practice would be best. How about you don't post anymore until you have 1,000 posts. Give it a few years and I think you'll figure it out.

[strive_for_five_guy]

44 minutes ago, BufBills83 said:

So I actually figured out the scenario that leaves the Bills out of the playoffs at 11-6.

 

- Miami beats Dallas and Baltimore, and loses to Buffalo.  Miami wins division at 12-5.

- Baltimore wins enough games to win division, but loses to Miami.

- Jacksonville wins division by winning out and going 11-6.

- KC loses to Cincy but wins their other 2 games, finish 11-6 and win division.

 

Those are the division winners.  Now for the wildcard teams.

 

- Cleveland beats Houston and Jets but lose to Cincy.  Finish 11-6 and the 5 seed.

- Cincy wins out.  This makes them 11-6 and the 6 seed since they beat Indy.

- Indy wins out, beating Atl, LV and Hou.  Finish 11-6 and the 7 seed.

- Houston loses to Cleveland and loses to Indy.  This leaves Houston out of the playoffs at 9-8, but gives Cleveland and Indy needed wins to stay above us.

 

So if Buffalo wins out and goes 11-6, if all these other things happen, we are left out as we lose out on tiebreakers.  However, for this to happen, all of the remaining games have to have these exact results:

 

Week 16:  Jax beats Tampa, Cleveland beats Hou, Cincy beats Pitt, Indy beats Atlanta, Miami beats Dallas

Week 17:  Jax beats Carolina, Cleveland beats Jets, Cincy beats KC, Indy beats LV, Miami beats Baltimore

Week 18:  Jax beats Tennesee, Cincy beats Cleveland, Indy beats Houston

 

So in total there are 13 games from week 16 to week 18 where if one of the results above go the other way, we control our own destiny.  So we need 1 good outcome out of 13 games.  Its highly improbable that all the games go this exact way.  I can see Tampa beating Jax this week, Dallas beating Miami, maybe even Pitt winning.  I can def see KC beating Cincy in week 17.  There are a lot of possibilities for us to control our destiny.

Highly improbable aka somewhat probable?

[BufBills83]

24 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Highly improbable aka somewhat probable?

Lol what?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, BufBills83 said:

So I actually figured out the scenario that leaves the Bills out of the playoffs at 11-6.

 

- Miami beats Dallas and Baltimore, and loses to Buffalo.  Miami wins division at 12-5.

- Baltimore wins enough games to win division, but loses to Miami.

- Jacksonville wins division by winning out and going 11-6.

- KC loses to Cincy but wins their other 2 games, finish 11-6 and win division.

 

Those are the division winners.  Now for the wildcard teams.

 

- Cleveland beats Houston and Jets but lose to Cincy.  Finish 11-6 and the 5 seed.

- Cincy wins out.  This makes them 11-6 and the 6 seed since they beat Indy.

- Indy wins out, beating Atl, LV and Hou.  Finish 11-6 and the 7 seed.

- Houston loses to Cleveland and loses to Indy.  This leaves Houston out of the playoffs at 9-8, but gives Cleveland and Indy needed wins to stay above us.

 

So if Buffalo wins out and goes 11-6, if all these other things happen, we are left out as we lose out on tiebreakers.  However, for this to happen, all of the remaining games have to have these exact results:

 

Week 16:  Jax beats Tampa, Cleveland beats Hou, Cincy beats Pitt, Indy beats Atlanta, Miami beats Dallas

Week 17:  Jax beats Carolina, Cleveland beats Jets, Cincy beats KC, Indy beats LV, Miami beats Baltimore

Week 18:  Jax beats Tennesee, Cincy beats Cleveland, Indy beats Houston

 

So in total there are 13 games from week 16 to week 18 where if one of the results above go the other way, we control our own destiny.  So we need 1 good outcome out of 13 games.  Its highly improbable that all the games go this exact way.  I can see Tampa beating Jax this week, Dallas beating Miami, maybe even Pitt winning.  I can def see KC beating Cincy in week 17.  There are a lot of possibilities for us to control our destiny.

Thank you for the breakdown! Can you imagine the hysteria around here if we somehow go into week 18 with not a single game going our way yet?

 

 

[Punching Bag]

23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Thank you for the breakdown! Can you imagine the hysteria around here if we somehow go into week 18 with not a single game going our way yet?

 

 

I can see lots of mob posts.

[NickelCity]

It's been covered ad nauseam but "somewhat probable" is killing me lol. 

[uticaclub]

So a 13 game parlay

[ProcessTruster]

only on this board would you see just an OP. 

[loedward22]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:47 PM, Doc Brown said:

Just to make it easier if the Bills win on Saturday we need only one of the following teams to lose this weekend to control our own destiny:

-Fish, Jags, Bungles, Brownies, or Colts

And to put that in perspective - a $100 parlay on those five as money line winners gets you about $2000

[Airseven]

Doesn’t “somewhat probable” just mean “possible”?

[stevestojan]

I’m not reading 10 pages here, but can someone confirm this: 

 

If the Steelers beat the bengals today, we are then 100% in if we win out, correct? 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:33 PM, ColoradoBills said:

"May your armpits be infested with the fleas of a thousand camels".

Crotch 

[Motorin']

14 minutes ago, stevestojan said:

I’m not reading 10 pages here, but can someone confirm this: 

 

If the Steelers beat the bengals today, we are then 100% in if we win out, correct? 

 

There are 13 games over the next three weeks where if just one of them goes our way then we are 100% in if we win out. 

 

Steelers over Bengals is one of the five scenarios just this week that would make that possible.

[LarryMadman]

On 12/22/2023 at 8:50 AM, Scott7975 said:

The Dolphins have a scenario where they don't make it as well.  That would make my year.  I hate Dolphin fans with a passion.

 

Only difference between the Dolphins missing in this scenario the OP has with the Bills missing scenario, is Miami would only have 10 wins to the Bills 11 wins.

 

Dolphins missing would be great though.