The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[ImpactCorey]

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

[Einstein]

Yep, it’s possible.

 

Just very improbable.

 

Thus the 99%.

[ColoradoBills]

"May your armpits be infested with the fleas of a thousand camels".

[Rubes]

Well I, for one, appreciated that analysis. Thanks OP.

 

[Mr. WEO]

lol bengals and colts 

[MJS]

Let's hope that doesn't happen. Missing the playoffs with 11 wins, especially after they added a 3rd wild card team, would really suck.

[Doc Brown]

Just to make it easier if the Bills win on Saturday we need only one of the following teams to lose this weekend to control our own destiny:

-Fish, Jags, Bungles, Brownies, or Colts

[chongli]

8 minutes ago, Rubes said:

Well I, for one, appreciated that analysis. Thanks OP.

 

 

Especially from such a new poster! Way to go! [As opposed to the usual "here me out" or duplicate thread or LAMP posts from newbies.]

[ImpactCorey]

6 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

I'm sorry, was this supposed be valuable information? 

Valuable?  No.  But apparently it was interesting enough for you to participate!  Thanks for stopping by.

[chongli]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

Let's hope that doesn't happen. Missing the playoffs with 11 wins, especially after they added a 3rd wild card team, would really suck.

 

The Patriots in 2008 and the Broncos in 1985 finished with 11 wins but failed to make the playoffs. Yikes!

 

https://www.profootballhof.com/news/2013/12/news-fact-or-fiction-an-11-5-team-has-missed-the-playoffs/

[MJS]

Just now, chongli said:

 

The Patriots in 2008 and the Broncos in 1985 finished with 11 wins but failed to make the playoffs. Yikes!

 

https://www.profootballhof.com/news/2013/12/news-fact-or-fiction-an-11-5-team-has-missed-the-playoffs/

Yes, but that was with one fewer wild card team.

[ImpactCorey]

Just now, chongli said:

 

The Patriots in 2008 and the Broncos in 1985 finished with 11 wins but failed to make the playoffs. Yikes!

 

https://www.profootballhof.com/news/2013/12/news-fact-or-fiction-an-11-5-team-has-missed-the-playoffs/

Crazy.  And that's with playing 1 less game!

[ImpactCorey]

Just now, Motorin' said:

 

Troll on with your 107 total posts in five years. Wonderful contribution with your 1 post every 3 or 4 months.

True. Maybe I'll come up with a banger like how much nuggets cost.

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Yes, but that was with one fewer wild card team.

That's true!

[Motorin']

Just now, ImpactCorey said:

True. Maybe I'll come up with a banger like how much nuggets cost.

 

Trolls like nuggets I guess.

[Doc Brown]

3 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

The Patriots in 2008 and the Broncos in 1985 finished with 11 wins but failed to make the playoffs. Yikes!

 

https://www.profootballhof.com/news/2013/12/news-fact-or-fiction-an-11-5-team-has-missed-the-playoffs/

Belichick went 11-5 with Matt freaking Cassel.

[Big Turk]

27 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

 

There are absolutely NO LOCKS this time of year, so anytime you hear someone say "this game is a lock", they are full of crap...within the last 2 weeks I have heard National Media members talking about "lock" games on the air frequently and at least 5 of these so called "lock games" ended up being losses.  Pretty sure the Falcons thought it was a "lock" they beat the 1 win Panthers last week.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Big Turk

[ImpactCorey]

4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Trolls like nuggets I guess.

I prefer wings on the bone.  Go Bills!

[90sBills]

Bengals are not winning out. They’re more likely to lose all 3 games than winning all three. 

[ImpactCorey]

5 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Bengals are not winning out. They’re more likely to lose all 3 games than winning all three. 

I think you're right about them not winning out but I could see them winning this weekend's match up.

Bengals on a 3 game winning streak while Steelers on a 3 game skid.

Edited December 22, 2023 by ImpactCorey

[Rubes]

8 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Bengals are not winning out. They’re more likely to lose all 3 games than winning all three. 

Don’t be so sure…

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Rubes

[Taro Nimbus]

If this were to happen, it would be very Billsey

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Its a higher than 99.9% that we get in at 11 wins…every individual teams results might seem probable when you look at them but any individual game going in our favor prevents that whole scenario 

 

also I think some additional stuff has to happen too than what you listed 

[Albany,n.y.]

I read the OP & booked flights in & out of Las Vegas on Super Bowl Sunday.  

[ImpactCorey]

12 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Its a higher than 99.9% that we get in at 11 wins…every individual teams results might seem probable when you look at them but any individual game going in our favor prevents that whole scenario 

 

also I think some additional stuff has to happen too than what you listed 

It is possible but I don't think so.  I spent way more time messing around with results than I should have haha.  But if you figure out something I'm missing let me know!

[chongli]

35 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Bengals are not winning out. They’re more likely to lose all 3 games than winning all three. 

 

Yep, if we play them again now, even with Burrow, it's a different outcome. The same goes for Denver, Jacksonville, and New England. We have caught fire at the right time.

[John from Riverside]

All you can do is control what you can control

[billsbackto81]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

"May your armpits be infested with the fleas of a thousand camels".

And may the fleas be infected with a flesh eating bacteria. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

9 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

It is possible but I don't think so.  I spent way more time messing around with results than I should have haha.  But if you figure out something I'm missing let me know!

I think the ravens have to win exactly 11 for whatever reason to keep us out lol I’m trying to find where I read that.  It’s like 12 games all perfectly going against us which is why the odds are so low that we miss with 11.  Even if each individual game is 60/40 odds to go against us the odds of them all going that way are astronomically small 

 

ah that ravens thing may be wrong…maybe I was thinking of the browns having to go an exact 2-1 but you mentioned that 

just these three goin against us seems very unlikely before even getting into any of the rest lol 

Miami over dallas

miami over baltimore

cincy over kc

 

we’ll call Miami 50/50 vs Dallas and Baltimore and cincy a 30/70 underdog to kc.  Odds of just those three all going against us would be 7.5%.  Then you gotta factor in jags,colts,bengals all winning out and the browns going 2-1 but 1 of those wins can’t be against cincy.

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Just to make it easier if the Bills win on Saturday we need only one of the following teams to lose this weekend to control our own destiny:

-Fish, Jags, Bungles, Brownies, or Colts

 

This is like 1000 times more likely than the OP's scenario. By Christmas Day the Bills will control their own destiny.

[Charles Romes]

Are you saying McDermott gets a pass on that situation?

[longtimebillsfan]

4 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

Well aren't you a ray of sunshine.

[TheWeatherMan]

Nice write up, thanks!  Please remember, words matter. Statistically speaking, this scenario is possible but highly improbable.

[wakingfane]

1 hour ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Nice write up, thanks!  Please remember, words matter. Statistically speaking, this scenario is possible but highly improbable.

LOL, yes, and I love the words "somewhat probable". Probable means "reasonably sure but not certain to happen".  Possible can mean anything from a 1% chance to a 99% chance of something happening. So somewhat probable will from now on mean...  59% to ... ... let's say... 77.4% sure to happen??  Yes, once we reach 77.5% certainty,  then it's straight up probable. 

[eball]

I believe the OP needs to rethink what the phrase “somewhat probable” really means.

 

[MikePJ76]

I was convinced Dallas was going to beat miami but now it sounds like Tyron Smith and Zach Martin are both going to miss the game.  That is not good for Dallas beating Miami.

 

So buffalo's shot at the division is going to rest on baltimore and I dont trust the ravens to beat miami.

[ImpactCorey]

18 minutes ago, eball said:

I believe the OP needs to rethink what the phrase “somewhat probable” really means.

 

You need to factor in the entire sentence together.  I’m saying in a world where the Bills win out and still miss the playoffs this is the most likely scenario where it happens.  There are other (not many) extremely unlikely scenarios not worth talking about.  I’m a statistics guy and got curious what some of those less than 1% chance scenarios looked like.  I figured others might be too and shared my work.  It doesn’t mean I want (or even think) it will actually happen

 

it is also important to note that simulators just brute force the possible win/loss records without factoring in match ups or anything.  When you look at the actual remaining schedules for teams and the likelihood of outcomes based on Vegas odds I think you’ll find it is slightly more possible than the less than 1% suggests.

Edited December 22, 2023 by ImpactCorey

[wakingfane]

2 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

You need to factor in the entire sentence together.  I’m saying in a world where the Bills win out and still miss the playoffs this is the most likely scenario where it happens.  There are other (not many) extremely unlikely scenarios not worth talking about.  I’m a statistics guy and got curious what some of those less than 1% chance scenarios looked like.  I figured others might be too and shared my work.  It doesn’t mean I want (or even think) it will actually happen.

Okay that makes sense,  sorry for poking fun at you.  😁 

[CSBill]

7 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

 

Merry Christmas! Mr. Scrooge.

[ImpactCorey]

1 minute ago, wakingfane said:

Okay that makes sense,  sorry for poking fun at you.  😁 

Hey no worries at all.  Go Bills!

[Billy Claude]

4 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

You need to factor in the entire sentence together.  I’m saying in a world where the Bills win out and still miss the playoffs this is the most likely scenario where it happens.  There are other (not many) extremely unlikely scenarios not worth talking about.  I’m a statistics guy and got curious what some of those less than 1% chance scenarios looked like.  I figured others might be too and shared my work.  It doesn’t mean I want (or even think) it will actually happen

 

it is also important to note that simulators just brute force the possible win/loss records without factoring in match ups or anything.  When you look at the actual remaining schedules for teams and the likelihood of outcomes based on Vegas odds I think you’ll find it is slightly more possible than the less than 1% suggests.

 

 

I don't know why you are getting such grief.  Maybe if you change "somewhat probable" to "least improbable".  Of course you would still get hit by the don't speak evil into existence karma folks.